So South Carolina's Moving. Who're they taking with them?

Ever since March, when the Florida House first advanced the notion of a plan to move the state's 2008 presidential primary onto South Carolina's turf, South Carolina Republican Party Chair, Katon Dawson has been threatening to move the state's 2008 GOP primary. So when Florida finalized plans in late May to move to January 29th, the wheels were set in motion. I hesitate to call the South Carolina GOP's move the apex of primary movement for the '08 cycle, but it is the current "most consequential" move.

The game of one-upsmanship now shifts to Iowa and New Hampshire. State law in New Hampshire requires that the state's primary occur seven days prior to any similar contest. The South Carolina GOP's move to January 19 now puts that contest three days ahead of where New Hampshire is tentatively set and on the same day as the caucuses in Nevada. That, in turn, means that the contest in New Hampshire will take place no later than Saturday, January 12.

Now, when all this occurred, my first thought was that New Hampshire would not hold their primary on a Saturday, pushing the primary to the preceding Tuesday, January 8. That, in turn, would cause the Iowa caucuses to fall on New Year's Eve if the state were to maintain the same eight day buffer as in past cycles. And there is no way that is happening. The week prior to that is no good either, obviously. So to beat the holiday rush, Iowa would have to push forward all the way to Monday, December 17; over three weeks ahead of New Hampshire. That's not happening, part two enters here. New Hampshire would not allow there to be that much of a time span between the two contests.

At that point I envisioned both states working together to schedule their contests in early to mid-December: Iowa on December 10 and New Hampshire following on December 18. Those two states would beat the holidays and leave the nomination battle to heat up in the rest of the states starting with Nevada's caucuses and the South Carolina GOP's primary on January 19. To step back and look at the one month between New Hampshire and South Carolina/Nevada in that scenario, is to see something of a solution to the compression so many pundits bemoan as the darkest side of frontloading. However, it breaks something of an unspoken, cardinal rule in presidential politics: mainly, that an election cannot take place in the year prior to the year it is supposed to take place.

Primary and caucus contests breaking through into 2007 is a notion with which many have problems. In fact Iowa governor, Chet Culver, has stepped back from the brink and has attempted to assure everyone that he will work to keep the state's caucuses in 2008. This is made slightly easier by a law change in New Hampshire. The state legislature there passed a law freeing the secretary of state to set the primary date on a day other than Tuesday. That means that a Saturday, January 12 contest is a possibility. The ball is New Hampshire secretary of state, Bill Gardner's court now. What New Hampshire does will affect what Iowa does and that is the key in whether this presidential nomination race officially begins in 2007. And with the way things have gone in this cycle, I wouldn't eliminate that as a possibility.

There's one other factor to note: The parties' deadlines for setting the calendar are looming (September), so while that may force a decision out of either Iowa or New Hampshire, both may take a wait and see approach, letting the other state's positions solidify before deciding themselves

Ohio Looking to Crash the Party?

After saying in April that the state's presidential primary for 2008 was fine where it was--on the first Tuesday in March--the Ohio state legislature has reconsidered its position. Senator Eric Kearney of Cincinnati introduced a bill on Friday, cosponsored by fellow Democrats, Tom Roberts of Dayton and Shirley Smith of Cleveland, which would move the state's presidential primary for next year from March to January 29th. This is the same date as the South Carolina Democratic primary and the rule-bending primary for the state of Florida. It may be due to the actions of the latter that this action was taken in Ohio in the first place. Florida's, as has been discussed in earlier posts, is a primary outside of the parties' sanctioned windows--February 5 to the first week in June--in which primaries can be held.

At this time, the Ohio General Assembly website has not been updated to include information on bills introduced or acted upon on Friday, so information on the specifics of the bill are lacking at this time. However, it would appear that the bill has very little momentum. The Democratic Party in Ohio continues to support the March 4th primary date and the GOP, while not taking a position on the subject at this time, would not necessarily support a bill sponsored
three Senate Democrats.

Illinois Moves Closer to Feb. 5

The Illinios Senate yesterday (May 15) passed HB 426 which will move the state's 2008 presidential primary to February 5 from the third Tuesday in March. As the articles here and here indicate one of the prime motivations was to provide homegrown candidate, Barack Obama, an early possible win to bolster his campaign for the Democratic nomination. The plan now heads to Governor Blagojevich (D) who supports the move. If that comes to pass, Illinois would join other delegate-rich states, California, New York and New Jersey in addition to possibly fifteen to twenty more states on February 5.

Florida is a Crist Signature Away from Jan. 29

I may have been a bit presumptuous last week when I said that the Florida legislature's plan to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to January 29 was ready for the governor's signature. It had passed the Senate but had not cleared the conference committee phase. The legislature took care of that yesterday (5-3-07) and Governor Crist has indicated that he will sign the bill.

And so the standoff begins. The national parties say that state delegations to the nominating conventions will be penalized for scheduling their primaries before the designated window. The Democrats are even attempting to sanction candidates who campaign in offending states. Proponents of the move within Florida's legislature--and some of this came out of Tallahassee yesterday--argue that those rules will eventually be suspended, especially for an electorally important state like Florida. Time will tell whether the national party rules for this cycle have teeth.

Add Tennessee and Subtract Kansas

Tennessee's plan (HB 2211) to inch up a week from February 12 to February 5, was signed into law by Governor Bresden on April 30. Here and here are the only current accounts of the move.

In Kansas, the dust has yet to fully settle on the proceedings of this last few days. As I pointed out yesterday and late last week, Kansas had moved from out to in to potentially out again in a matter of days. The plans (S310 and S320) to establish a primary or to have an early primary seemed dead once the regular session of the legislature finished with no further action. The plan was revived during the legislative wrap up session with an amendment attached by Rep. Tom Sawyer to a Senate appropriations bill. That House substituted version passed the House but failed to make it through a budget conference committee on April 30. Here and here are a couple of summaries of the final legislative action. Though this has not been mentioned yet in any source I have come across, the caucuses that Kansas' Democrats and Republicans will have to fall back on have not set their dates for 2008.

Rhode Island Plan Passes First Test

The Senate of the Rhode Island General Assembly yesterday passed by a vote of 29-6 a plan (S 740) to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to February 5. Though Rhode Island has held its presidential primary on the first Tuesday in March for the last several cycles, this plan calls for the primary to be moved from March 18, 2008 (the third Tuesday in March) to the February 5 date twenty plus states have moved to or are considering moving to. This plan now moves to the House side where a similar plan (H 5636) was introduced in February but has since been stuck in the Judiciary Committee.

Maryland's In, Montana's Out and Kansas is in Limbo

As I discussed in my post last week, both the Senate (SB 1025) and House (HB 1434) plans to move Maryland's 2008 presidential primary to February 12 had passed both chambers. Little else was clear however. A check today though revealed that the Senate bill was signed into law by Governor O'Malley on April 24. This is documented in the link to the bill above, but is not verified through the press releases posted on the governor's website. At this point, it looks as though Maryland has joined Virginia for a mini-regional primary the week after the February 5 smörgåsbord.

Futher west, the plan (HB 797) to give the Montana secretary of state the authority to set the date of the 2008 presidential primary some time in February or March died on the Senate side. After passing the House, the plan was transmitted to the Senate and referred to the State Administration Committee where several hearings were scheduled and canceled. The bill was deemed dead in the committee on April 27.


Things are a bit more muddled in Kansas. Last week the House passed a substituted appropriations bill (SB 357) that included language requiring the secretary of state to certify to the governor and legislative leaders before November 1 of this year that the state would not only hold a 2008 presidential primary but that it would be held on February 2. Here's the rub though: The bill's history indicates that the bill has been passed around both chambers subsequently, yet the link above is still to the House substituted version. Several of those actions taken since last week took place today (May 2), so an update is warranted once the legislature's website is updated with an altered (potentially) bill.

In the other states likely to move, nothing new has occurred.

Florida Moves Closer to Jan. 29

On Friday the Florida Senate passed HB 537 which plans to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to January 29. This moves Florida into position with Georgia and Tennessee as states where frontloading proposals have passed the legislature and are awaiting the signature of the governor. The plan would also move the primary to the same date on which the Democratic primary in South Carolina is scheduled to occur; one week after New Hampshire and one week before the twenty plus state primary day on February 5.

Florida now becomes the biggest state so far to test the windows both parties have set as the time during which primaries can be held. February 5 is the earliest date that non-exempt states can hold primaries. For 2008, New Hampshire and Iowa are obviously exempt in both parties and Nevada and South Carolina are on the Democratic side. Violating the window rules set forth by the parties carries sanctions whereby delegations from offending states would be penalized some or all of their delegates. As I've mentioned several times, several state legislators and state party actors from other states have expressed a feeling that the parties will suspend these rules if violations are widespread. Since the Florida plan anchors the state's primary to the date one week after the New Hampshire primary (whenever it is), it is apparent that the state legislators there value having an influence during the primary process as opposed to the convention phase.

Kansas to Feb. 2?

The Kansas House yesterday passed a substitute to a Senate appropriations bill (SB 357) that would not only institute a presidential primary for the 2008 cycle but would move it to February 2. That would put the primary on the Saturday after the South Carolina Democratic primary and the proposed Florida primary but before the de facto national primary on February 5. The bill was recommended for passage (as is) by the House and now will go back to the Senate for approval. The bill was not on the Senate's calendar for April 27, so it will more than likely be considered there some time next week.

The amendment added by Rep. Tom Sawyer would appropriate $1.6 for the primary and require the secretary of state to certify to the governor and other legislative leaders on or before November 1 of this year that the primary is to be held on February 2, 2008.

Of course, this proposal would subject the state to the same national party sanctions Florida's proposed move faces. Namely, the threat not to count delegates awarded through the primary. As I've mentioned several times though, most states considering such moves are operating under the assumption that the parties will suspend those rules if they are widely violated.

Where are they now?

Before I continue with part two of my look at actions within the states to alter the delegate selection calendar for the 2008 presidential nomination cycle, I want update where bills are in the legislative process in the states where plans to move are still under consideration.

NOTE: Please consult my original post or follow the links for the particulars of each bill. The descriptions that follow will be simple updates of progress within the legislative process.

Connecticut:
SB 1184: As of April 16 the bill had made it out of the Joint Government Administration and Elections Committee and was on the calendar for consideration in the Senate.
The plan? Move to February 5.

Florida:
HB 537 is still in the Senate as of March 22 after having passed the House on the previous day.
The plan? Move the state's 2008 presidential primary to the week directly following the New Hampshire primary (whenever that is; currently on January 22, 2008).

Georgia:
HB 487 was passed by the Georgia House on March 20 and has since been read and referred to the Senate Ethics Committee. As of April 17, that bill had been favorably reported out of the Ethics Committee and had been read for a second time by the Senate. The bill passed the Senate on April 20, but without the section covering the lowering of percentage thresholds that trigger runoffs. That version was then sent back to the House where it was not passed. The House then added the provision calling for the move of the presidential primary on a broad election bill (SB 194) from the Senate. The House then sent that bill back to the Senate which the members subsequently agreed to. Sadly, the above link does not include the language for the primary move, but here and here are links to sources discussing the amendment to the Senate bill. Apparently, Governor Sonny Perdue's signature is the only thing now separating this move from reality.
The plan? Move to February 5.

Illinois:
HB 0426: The House passed the plan on March 28 and the bill was referred to the Senate Rules Committee the following day. On April 18 the bill emerged from Rules and was assigned to the Senate Executive Committee for consideration.
The plan? Move to February 5.

Kansas:
With the Kansas Legislature set to reconvene for a "wrap-up" session on April 25, there is a chance, albeit slim, that action could be taken on the bills to set or move the date of the state's presidential primary. Neither of the bills (S 310 and S 320) are on the agenda for either chamber however. See here to search both bills' histories.
The plans? Permanently set the primary date for the first Tuesday in April (S 310) OR
leave the decision up to the secretary of state given that the legislature provides appropriations for the primary (S 320).

Maryland:
HB 1434 and SB 1025 have both passed their respective chambers and have each passed third readings in the opposite chamber as of April 2. The House also offered and adopted amendments to the Senate bill on April 6. The legislature has adjourned (on April 9) for the session though. However, the members can still present bills to the governor twenty days after the end of the session and have May 9 as the last day on which an extended session could be held according to the 2007 Session - Dates of Interest Calendar. Neither bill has had much resistance, so it can hardly be considered a stretch to assume that one of them will make it to the desk of the governor.
The plan? Move to February 12 to coincide with Virginia.

Montana:
HB 797: The third reading of this bill was passed and transmitted to the Senate on March 29 where it was referred to the State Administration Committee on April 2. A committee hearing was then held on April 11 where the bill was tabled for consideration on the Senate floor.
The plan? Allow the secretary of state to decide on a February or March date.

North Carolina:
S 168: This bill is the same as a bill introduced in the North Carolina General Assembly during the 2006 session. And since this year's version has been locked up in the Senate Judiciary Committee since mid-February, it may suffer the same fate as its precursor.
The plan? Move to February 5.

Oregon:
HB 2084 (Search for bill history here.): Since passing the House Elections, Ethics and Rules Committee on March 28, the Oregon House has since been referred the measure to the Ways and Means Committee for consideration (as of April 3).
The plan? Allow the secretary of state to decide (presumably February 5).

Pennsylvania:
As was the case in North Carolina, no actions have been taken on any of the three plans to alter the date on which the 2008 presidential primary will be held in Pennsylvania.
The plans? 1) Move to the first Tuesday in March for 2008 (HB 63)
2) Move to the first Tuesday in March for 2008 and 2012 (SB 516)
3) Permanently move to the second Tuesday in February (HB 289)

Rhode Island:
H 5636 and S 740 (Search for both here.): Both bills call for the same thing but are at different points within the legislative process. The House bill has been in the Judiciary Committee since being referred there on February 28. The Senate bill, on the other hand, has been recommended for passage by the Senate Judiciary Committee (April 10) and placed on the Senate calendar (April 12).
The plans? Move to February 5.

Tennessee:
HB 2211 and SB 2012 (Search for both here and click on the "Legislation" tab on the left.): The former was substituted for the latter in the Senate on April 16 and subsequently passed by a unanimous vote. On April 19 the bill was signed by the speaker of the House and transmitted to the governor for his consideration.
The plan? Move to February 5.

Texas:
HB 2017 and SB 1843: Both of these bills are identical, but the House bill is the real mover and shaker. That measure passed the House on April 13 and was received by the Senate on April 16. On April 19 it was read for the first time in the Senate and referred to the State Affairs Committee for consideration.
The plan? Move to February 5.

So Georgia and Tennessee are now the closest of this bunch to joining the bunch already on February 5.