One of the questions posed in today's earlier post was how Mike Huckabee would do in the post-Romney race for the GOP nomination. We have an answer: not bad. He won the caucuses in Kansas today. I still don't know what to make of this phenomenon. I suppose there is an anti-McCain sentiment among GOP voters and Huckabee is now the lone recipient of that group's support. He may keep things positive with McCain, and even if there is or isn't a plan in the works for them to join forces at some point, Huckabee's success may force McCain's hand in the future.
While the Democratic battle is evenly contested, the GOP race remains interesting. You have to go back several cycles to have anything similar to this (The 1992 Democratic nomination when Bill Clinton emerged is the last real example of a race that stretched on past Super Tuesday.). In 2004, Edwards had some delegates and was the last viable candidate out. The catch is that he only won once. Huckabee keeps winning. So, one candidate has a comfortable lead in the delegate count. The other candidate has enough support and delegates to lay claim to staying in the race, but cannot (most likely) catch up in the delegate count to make it a race again.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Super Tuesday Meet Super Weekend (...and, oh yeah, Romney's Out)
With Super Tuesday this past week, the presidential nomination race(s) waved goodbye to the contest by contest progression and ushered in multiple contest delegate selection days (or weekends). On tap this weekend are Saturday caucuses in Washington, Nebraska (Democrats only), Kansas (Republicans only) and the Louisiana primary. Maine Democrats caucus on Sunday. The Caucus has some of the lowdown on the contests.
Here's the line up for today:
Kansas GOP: Things get under way there at 11am(ET). Kansas should give us the first glimpse at the race post-Romney. The big question is how competitive Huckabee will be now that McCain is transitioning into party unifying mode.
Nebraska Dems: Nebraska Democrats abandoned the longstanding, late May primary in favor of this February 9 caucus for this cycle. The county meetings have staggered start times but the state party's web site claims that results will start coming in around 8:15pm(ET) this evening. As I've made clear over the course of this week's posts, Obama has done well in caucuses, so it will be interesting to see if that streak continues. Turnout is high in at least one precinct.
Washington: Both the Democrats and Republicans begin caucusing at 4pm(ET). The questions in the Evergreen state on both sides are similar to the questions posed above. Is Huckabee in this thing or is he out of his element outside the southeast? For the Democrats, can Clinton reverse the Obama caucus streak. It may be late on the east coast before we have an answer to either question.
Louisiana: The sole primary on the day's calendar closes its polls at 6pm(ET) on the Democratic side and at 9pm(ET) for the GOP. Louisiana is different than the rest of the South demographically, but Huckabee should gain a boost from whatever evangelical presence there is in the state. Likewise, Obama should do well among African Americans and in the state despite the way that Hurricane Katrina disproportionately ravaged that segment of the Pelican state's population. Thirty-two percent of the population was African American during the 2000 census before Katrina hit.
Tomorrow's slate is Maine, Maine and Maine. The Pine Tree state's Democrats have the spotlight all to themselves on Sunday as caucusing goes on across the state throughout the afternoon. And hey, it's a caucus, so Obama should have the advantage, right? Clinton does have the support of the governor (from The Fix):
I'll be back later today to look at the results as they begin coming in and discussing the ramifications of the outcomes (...if it isn't too late).
Meanwhile, I'm coming in a couple of days after the fact here, but still find this worth bringing up. Mitt Romney suspended the operations of his campaign on Thursday; ending what looked like the last, best challenge to McCain in the Republican race. And that's no knock on Huckabee. Romney was situated in a similar ideological area as the former Arkansas governor, but had plenty of his own money at his disposal. And money is what will be needed if a serious challenge to McCain were to be made. In the end though the math was just too difficult for Romney to overcome. Without winner-take-all contests dominating the landscape of contests in the next month, the task of catching up with the delegate total McCain has post to this point was a nearly insurmountable task. So now the focus shifts to McCain and Huckabee. McCain seemed as if he were opening a general election campaign with his speech a the CPAC conference. Huckabee meanwhile will continue to have to operate on a shoestring budget in the coming days and begin to wonder if the national party will start putting pressure on him to drop out of the race himself. It will be interesting to see how the media plays the seemingly decided GOP race in the face of the competitive Democratic battle as these contests continue.
Here's the line up for today:
Kansas GOP: Things get under way there at 11am(ET). Kansas should give us the first glimpse at the race post-Romney. The big question is how competitive Huckabee will be now that McCain is transitioning into party unifying mode.
Nebraska Dems: Nebraska Democrats abandoned the longstanding, late May primary in favor of this February 9 caucus for this cycle. The county meetings have staggered start times but the state party's web site claims that results will start coming in around 8:15pm(ET) this evening. As I've made clear over the course of this week's posts, Obama has done well in caucuses, so it will be interesting to see if that streak continues. Turnout is high in at least one precinct.
Washington: Both the Democrats and Republicans begin caucusing at 4pm(ET). The questions in the Evergreen state on both sides are similar to the questions posed above. Is Huckabee in this thing or is he out of his element outside the southeast? For the Democrats, can Clinton reverse the Obama caucus streak. It may be late on the east coast before we have an answer to either question.
Louisiana: The sole primary on the day's calendar closes its polls at 6pm(ET) on the Democratic side and at 9pm(ET) for the GOP. Louisiana is different than the rest of the South demographically, but Huckabee should gain a boost from whatever evangelical presence there is in the state. Likewise, Obama should do well among African Americans and in the state despite the way that Hurricane Katrina disproportionately ravaged that segment of the Pelican state's population. Thirty-two percent of the population was African American during the 2000 census before Katrina hit.
Tomorrow's slate is Maine, Maine and Maine. The Pine Tree state's Democrats have the spotlight all to themselves on Sunday as caucusing goes on across the state throughout the afternoon. And hey, it's a caucus, so Obama should have the advantage, right? Clinton does have the support of the governor (from The Fix):
Maine (Feb. 10 caucus): Although Maine holds a caucus, this is a state where Clinton is putting on a serious effort to win. Former president Bill Clinton will be in Portland tonight and Sen. Clinton will hold a rally in Orono on Saturday. She has the support of Gov. John Baldacci (D) and sees Maine as a chance to break up a potential string of Obama victories on Saturday as well as demonstrate the strength of her support in the Northeast. Women are expected to be a significant portion of the electorate as well, which should work to Clinton's benefit. Obama isn't handing the state over, having sent Rob Hill, who handled the campaign's field efforts in New Hampshire's primary, to Maine just after that state's vote on Jan. 8.Here's more on the candidates' efforts in Maine from The Caucus.
I'll be back later today to look at the results as they begin coming in and discussing the ramifications of the outcomes (...if it isn't too late).
Meanwhile, I'm coming in a couple of days after the fact here, but still find this worth bringing up. Mitt Romney suspended the operations of his campaign on Thursday; ending what looked like the last, best challenge to McCain in the Republican race. And that's no knock on Huckabee. Romney was situated in a similar ideological area as the former Arkansas governor, but had plenty of his own money at his disposal. And money is what will be needed if a serious challenge to McCain were to be made. In the end though the math was just too difficult for Romney to overcome. Without winner-take-all contests dominating the landscape of contests in the next month, the task of catching up with the delegate total McCain has post to this point was a nearly insurmountable task. So now the focus shifts to McCain and Huckabee. McCain seemed as if he were opening a general election campaign with his speech a the CPAC conference. Huckabee meanwhile will continue to have to operate on a shoestring budget in the coming days and begin to wonder if the national party will start putting pressure on him to drop out of the race himself. It will be interesting to see how the media plays the seemingly decided GOP race in the face of the competitive Democratic battle as these contests continue.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Washington State's Double Dip, Polls for the Other February States and Revoting in Florida and Michigan
The dust is still settling on Super Tuesday, but I'm moving on. The story the media is telling now seems to be one of delegate counts and not necessarily one that focuses on the next series of states. Real Clear Politics, for example, doesn't have any polls up for the states that go this weekend and next Tuesday. So, instead of teasing anyone any further (Oh, the things we put in headlines to get people to read.), I'll admit that the polls for those states just aren't out there yet. Even cursory glances at the major newspapers in the states up next reveals nothing. I'm assuming that the Washington Post will have some numbers for the states involved in what they're calling the Potomac Primary eventually. As for the rest time will tell that tale.
Speaking of those other states slated to go over the course of the next week, Washington has put itself in a bit of an interesting situation. Here's what I wrote over the summer:
From the Green Papers:
Washington Democratic contest breakdown
Washington Republican contest breakdown
Completely unrelated to the Washington Double Dip (See, I can coin a phrase too; even if it is one ripped from the classic Seinfeld episode.), The Caucus has a post up today discussing the possibility of Florida and Michigan revoting in Spring caucuses to come into compliance with DNC rules. This is a limited story, but the fact that the idea is out there is interesting. The story up until now has been that the Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is, will ultimately decide to seat those delegates. With this race playing on past Super Tuesday and likely to stretch well into to the Spring though, you've got to think that Florida and Michigan Democrats are wary of a brokered convention. If that scenario were to play out, it would be less likely that Obama would allow for Clinton to push to have those delegates seated against party rules and at his expense. So the longer this race goes on, the more likely it may be that Democrats in Florida and/or Michigan decide to pull the trigger on caucus(es) in their states. Late March and early April are wide open on the calendar of delegate selection events. I think I'm talking myself into this idea. What does everyone else think?
The Obama camp has to like this possibility. He has seen a tad of success so far in caucuses.
Speaking of those other states slated to go over the course of the next week, Washington has put itself in a bit of an interesting situation. Here's what I wrote over the summer:
Washington: A nine member committee (see the press release from the Secretary of State's office) made up of Washington state political leaders made the decision in June to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to February 19. Since that decision was made, the Washington Democratic party opted not to allocate delegates based on the primary and the Republican party will only distribute 51% of the state's delegates to the Republican convention through the contest. So while the state moved the primary from May into February (the same day as the Wisconsin primary), it is a mostly non-binding contest.That last statement may or may not prove to be true. Why? Well, both parties are holding precinct caucuses this weekend (February 9). All of the pledge delegates will be allocated on the Democratic side, but only 49% of the state's Republican delegates will be awarded. So while the Democrats in Washington opted not to use the primary as a means of distributing delegates (And Washington Democrats have a history of eschewing primaries.), the GOP is divvying up their pool of delegates across two contests. The result is that Washington, at least on the Republican side, will be going twice in the time span of ten days. Now, I say that the February 19 primary may prove to be a non-binding affair, but that isn't necessarily true. It will be binding on for the GOP, but John McCain may go and make that argument moot. Given that there are so few states during the time between Super Tuesday and February 19 though, McCain officially wrapping things up may be a bit of a stretch.
From the Green Papers:
Washington Democratic contest breakdown
Washington Republican contest breakdown
Completely unrelated to the Washington Double Dip (See, I can coin a phrase too; even if it is one ripped from the classic Seinfeld episode.), The Caucus has a post up today discussing the possibility of Florida and Michigan revoting in Spring caucuses to come into compliance with DNC rules. This is a limited story, but the fact that the idea is out there is interesting. The story up until now has been that the Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is, will ultimately decide to seat those delegates. With this race playing on past Super Tuesday and likely to stretch well into to the Spring though, you've got to think that Florida and Michigan Democrats are wary of a brokered convention. If that scenario were to play out, it would be less likely that Obama would allow for Clinton to push to have those delegates seated against party rules and at his expense. So the longer this race goes on, the more likely it may be that Democrats in Florida and/or Michigan decide to pull the trigger on caucus(es) in their states. Late March and early April are wide open on the calendar of delegate selection events. I think I'm talking myself into this idea. What does everyone else think?
The Obama camp has to like this possibility. He has seen a tad of success so far in caucuses.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Post-Super Tuesday Impressions
Today I want to focus on strategy from here on.
For the Republicans things are a bit more clear. McCain has a good sized lead in the delegate counts and if you listen to the talking heads, can shore up his support among conservatives by pulling Mike Huckabee into the fold. At least that's what the talking heads keep saying. It makes sense. McCain can't do well with Southern conservatives; Huckabee has proven he can. End of story, right? It's always a game of wait and see with politics.
On the Democratic side there were a few things that popped out at me. First of all, and I talked about this ad nauseam last night during the live blog, Obama does well in caucuses. He swept all of them last night. Even when he lost Nevada to Clinton, he still managed one more delegate than she did. The other issue on the Democratic side is performance versus region. Clinton does better (on the whole) in traditional Democratic areas (West coast and Northeast) and Obama has done well in the South (especially the Deep South) and the heartland--red states. So when Obama says that he can do more than Clinton as nominee to pull in Republicans and Independents, there is some truth to it. Sure these wins in red states are among Democratic partisans, but he can still argue that he has won in red states. What can Clinton say? "I won in New York and California?" Well, the Democrat would win those states anyway.
Given these trends (this model if you will), how do the Democratic candidates stack up in the immediate next contests? This weekend there is a Democratic caucus in Washington and a primary in Louisiana.
Washington represents the confluence of both factors mentioned above, so it is more difficult to peg. First, it is a caucus. Advantage Obama...apparently. Secondly, it is a "traditional" Democratic state. It has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 1988. Advantage Clinton. So Washington is tough.
Louisiana, on the other hand is a Deep South state. Say what you will about how Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana's African American population, this is still a Southern state and one that could break for Obama on Saturday (if we're keeping with the proposed model).
After that (on Tuesday February 12), there are primaries in Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia. Well, those are traditional Democratic, heavily African American and red state respectively. Clinton, Obama, Obama.
This is all speculation (and based on a simple model at that), and could change at the drop of a hat. Things have changed a time or two during this cycle. But it is a first pass at what to look for in the next week.
For the Republicans things are a bit more clear. McCain has a good sized lead in the delegate counts and if you listen to the talking heads, can shore up his support among conservatives by pulling Mike Huckabee into the fold. At least that's what the talking heads keep saying. It makes sense. McCain can't do well with Southern conservatives; Huckabee has proven he can. End of story, right? It's always a game of wait and see with politics.
On the Democratic side there were a few things that popped out at me. First of all, and I talked about this ad nauseam last night during the live blog, Obama does well in caucuses. He swept all of them last night. Even when he lost Nevada to Clinton, he still managed one more delegate than she did. The other issue on the Democratic side is performance versus region. Clinton does better (on the whole) in traditional Democratic areas (West coast and Northeast) and Obama has done well in the South (especially the Deep South) and the heartland--red states. So when Obama says that he can do more than Clinton as nominee to pull in Republicans and Independents, there is some truth to it. Sure these wins in red states are among Democratic partisans, but he can still argue that he has won in red states. What can Clinton say? "I won in New York and California?" Well, the Democrat would win those states anyway.
Given these trends (this model if you will), how do the Democratic candidates stack up in the immediate next contests? This weekend there is a Democratic caucus in Washington and a primary in Louisiana.
Washington represents the confluence of both factors mentioned above, so it is more difficult to peg. First, it is a caucus. Advantage Obama...apparently. Secondly, it is a "traditional" Democratic state. It has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 1988. Advantage Clinton. So Washington is tough.
Louisiana, on the other hand is a Deep South state. Say what you will about how Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana's African American population, this is still a Southern state and one that could break for Obama on Saturday (if we're keeping with the proposed model).
After that (on Tuesday February 12), there are primaries in Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia. Well, those are traditional Democratic, heavily African American and red state respectively. Clinton, Obama, Obama.
This is all speculation (and based on a simple model at that), and could change at the drop of a hat. Things have changed a time or two during this cycle. But it is a first pass at what to look for in the next week.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday Results (Live Blog)
Let's dispatch with the niceties and get right down to business. There are a lot of delegates at stake in today's contests and the fun starts right here in Georgia. Polls closed at 7pm.
7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.
7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.
7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:
7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.
7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).
8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.
8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.
8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.
8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.
8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.
8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.
8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.
8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.
9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).
9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.
9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.
9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.
9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.
9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.
9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.
9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:
9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.
10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.
10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.
10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.
10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.
10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.
10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.
10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.
10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.
10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?
10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.
10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.
10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.
10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.
10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.
11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.
11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.
11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.
11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.
11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.
11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.
11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.
11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.
The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).
Here are the results (gotta love the maps):
Democrats
Republicans
Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.
7:06pm: Well, it didn't take long here. Georgia was seen as a strong lean to Obama heading into today and having a quick call go his way, is a good start to the evening.
7:13pm: The Drudge Report has some early exit poll numbers up. Obama is way ahead in some states, Clinton in others. California, Massachusetts and Missouri are close (ABC News just called those the bellwether states for Democrats tonight.). New Jersey is a surprising but small lean to Obama. Of course, now Drudge is up with a warning cautioning folks not to put too much stock in exit poll numbers.
7:25pm: Speaking of exit polls, change seems to be the word of the day. Good news for Obama.
From The Caucus:
"Georgia Closes: Here’s one thing we can tell you so far from the early exit polls, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. For Democrats, the most important issue facing the country is the economy, far out-pacing the war in Iraq and health care. Nine of 10 Democratic primary voters say the economy is either not so good or poor."
7:40pm: And what of the GOP? The race is tight in Georgia.
McCain 37%7:43pm: Let's not forget that Bill Clinton used Georgia as his first, post-New Hampshire (Comeback Kid circa 1992) victory to catapult him into the driver's seat in the race for the nomination that year. The state also played a valuable role in his general election campaign in 1992. For the Clintons to lose the state says a lot. Mostly that the state Democratic party is much different today than it was in 1992. Zell Miller led the charge in Georgia for Clinton in 1992. That wing of the party as since moved on leaving a party much more female and much more African American than they were then (simple percentages of the party).
Huckabee 32
Romney 27
7:57pm: Hold on everyone. 8pm is the biggest poll closing of the night. Buckle up; this next hour could get interesting. Two of those bellwethers close in a few minutes (Massachusetts and Missouri).
8:02pm: CNN has called Illinois for Obama and McCain, Oklahoma for Clinton and Connecticut for McCain.
8:14pm: McCain takes New Jersey and Romney counters with a win in home state Massachusetts.
8:17pm: No real surprises so far. McCain is doing well where the polls had him ahead in the last few days, Romney won in his home state and Clinton and Obama are trading victories evenly.
8:34pm: Polls just closed in Arkansas. Favorite son, Mike Huckabee has already been declared the projected winner. No word on their favorite adopted daughter and former First Lady in the state.
8:37pm: Nevermind. That didn't take long. Clinton takes Arkansas and adds Tennessee as well.
8:39pm: This is an interesting series of results. Huckabee really seems to be doing well (early) in the South. He looks to be in good position in the Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas. Meanwhile, it is hard to get a feel for the results on the Democratic side. I can understand "home" state wins for Obama and Clinton. Georgia resembled South Carolina demographically for Obama, and beyond that, there seems to be a break for Obama in the deep South (Georgia and Alabama) while Clinton is doing well in the "border" states (Tennessee and Arkansas). Other areas are more difficult to peg.
8:46pm: Delaware to McCain. Just a few delegates, but the continuation of the trend in his favor tonight.
8:57pm: Here comes 9pm. Another six states close their polls and we learn more about those unsettled states from the previous hour. New Jersey, I'm looking your way.
9:03pm: Alright, I've reclaimed the TV and I'm tuned in to ABC. They just projected New York and Massachusetts for Clinton, Delaware for Obama and Huckabee continues a nice run in the South with a projected win in Alabama. (Results from CNN and they aren't willing to call Massachusetts for Clinton or Alabama for Huckabee.).
9:12pm: Add the AP to the list of news agencies calling Massachusetts for Clinton and Alabama for Huckabee.
9:16pm: Georgia for the GOP continues to be tight.
Huckabee 35%9:18pm: ABC just projected Clinton the winner in New Jersey. So other than Deleware, Clinton is doing well in the Northeast. Connecticut is still up in the air.
McCain 32
Romney 29
9:21pm: ABC News is harping on Huckabee in the South. They showed raw numbers for Oklahoma, Tennessee and Missouri and Huckabee is in great shape in all three. That spells trouble for McCain. The talk on conservative talk radio about McCain being a true conservative may have carried some weight among those Southern conservatives/evangelicals.
9:27pm: Drudge via ABC News (now at commercial break) is projecting Obama the winner in Alabama. Now CNN is following suit.
9:33pm: McCain wins another big one in New York. Ah, the Giuliani factor.
9:39pm: Obama seems to be ahead in all the caucus states that have closed thus far (Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota and Idaho). So while Clinton has a lead in states (and in delegates), Obama can add some states to the list with wins in these states. And again, these are the red states he's been talking about being able to penetrate in the general election; ones where Clinton wouldn't be able to do as well.
9:46pm: The Caucus talks about the influence of money in the Democratic contest in Massachusetts:
"Money, Money, Money Here’s a hint about Mrs. Clinton’s strong showing in Mass. She way outspent Mr. Obama on television. Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group: She ran 309 spots, costing $65,000, compared with 120 spots by Mr. Obama, who spent $27,000. That spending in Massachusetts is from Jan. 2007 through Feb. 3, 2008."
9:57pm: Over to CBS. They've just called Oklahoma for McCain. That helps stem the Southern tide that Huckabee has built this evening.
10pm: A few more states close (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, North Dakota-R). Now NBC gets into the mix. I'm switching to them now. Maybe Tim Russert will get his dry erase board out. There are delegates to be counted so I'm counting on it. No pun intended.
10:01pm: Romney takes Utah. Well, that didn't take long. No surprise. Mormons like Romney.
10:14pm: Another caucus, another Obama lead. This time in Colorado. Why are his people such good caucusers? Even when he lost in Nevada he still won one more delegate. This is an interesting development.
10:18pm: And to follow up, Obama has been declared the winner of the North Dakota caucuses by CNN.
10:22pm: In case you forgot, California's polls close in about thirty-five minutes.
10:25pm: Obama has broken through again in the Northeast with a win in Connecticut. Chalk up another caucus for him in Kansas as well.
10:31pm: NBC calls Utah for Obama.
10:34pm: Drudge is calling big wins for Huckabee in Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri (and Idaho's caucus for Obama). Unbelievable showing for Huckabee in the South. His campaign has made a real statement in this race. Brian Williams and Russert are talking VP for Huckabee. One other thing on Huckabee: he has run a heck of a campaign, especially financially. Think of the bang for his buck that he has gotten versus say, Mitt Romney.
10:39pm: CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee. Is that in the South?
10:45pm: Obama has overtaken Clinton in the delegate count with this recent string of victories in the heartland.
10:46pm: McCain wins in Arizona. Favorite sons (and daughters) are doing well tonight. While Huckabee is winning some contests, McCain is winning a lot of delegates. He may have some problems with the GOP base but he's got a very healthy delegate lead.
10:50pm: Another caucus for Obama. Minnesota goes for him as well. Need I say more. He has really made strides in the Midwest and in the Prairie and Mountain states. If Huckabee is a threat to McCain because of his strength then Obama similarly affects Clinton in the heartland.
10:53pm: We are on the edge of California officially joining the Super Tuesday party. Polls may close shortly there, but if recent surveys are any indication, then we won't know much in tight races on both sides.
10:59pm: ABC disagrees with the above delegate count. They still have Clinton in the lead.
11:00pm: TV has betrayed me. I'm switching to complete online coverage.
11:05pm: No call in the Show-Me state for the Democrats. Missouri is tight but with 78% of precincts reporting, Clinton maintains a five point edge (51-46). It is even tighter for McCain and Huckabee. Only one point separates McCain from Huckabee there.
11:09pm: NBC has called Georgia for Huckabee now.
11:11pm: California is still too close to call on both sides.
11:12pm: Romney wins in North Dakota. Again, it may not be much, but if he can pull out a win in California, then he'll have a few states to hang his hat on.
11:15pm: Add Minnesota's caucuses to Romney's tally.
11:41pm: Obama has added Idaho's caucuses to his column now. Another caucus.
11:47pm: That pesky 9am class is staring me in the face now. Let the delegate counting begin. I'll be back in the morning to wrap things up. An interesting night so far.
The morning after: California may have been "too close to call" once polls closed there, but Missouri takes the cake as the closest state of the night. The tightness of the races on both sides scared the networks off of calling the state until after midnight--four hours after the polls
had closed there (Georgia's GOP race lasted nearly that long as well.). You can't automatically make the claim that Missouri is the new, close general election state, but file the Show-Me state away until November. The baton may be passed their way from Ohio (in the same way that Ohio claimed the mantle from Florida, circa 2000.).
Here are the results (gotta love the maps):
Democrats
Republicans
Now we can all get out our calculators and begin counting delegates in the same way that electoral votes have been counted in the last two presidential general elections.
Huckabee Strikes First on Super Tuesday
Who else thought Georgia's polls were the first to close tonight? As far as polls go, I suppose that's right. But West Virginia's GOP convention today is the first to deliver any tangible Super Tuesday results. The state has 30 delegates total, 18 at-large delegates of which were at stake in today's convention (The remaining 12 will be decided on during the state's May primary.). After coming in second on the first vote (one where a majority was required to win any delegates), Huckabee managed the plurality necessary to wrap up all 18 delegates in the winner-take-all contest. Romney placed second which his campaign hopes is not a sign of things to come in other winner-take-all contests today. Second place and nothing to show for it won't get him very far.
UPDATE: Wagging a finger at Huckabee and McCain over a supposed back room deal in West Virginia won't get Romney very far either. This isn't the start Romney hoped for when the day's voting began.
UPDATE: Wagging a finger at Huckabee and McCain over a supposed back room deal in West Virginia won't get Romney very far either. This isn't the start Romney hoped for when the day's voting began.
Super Tuesday Voting: Georgia
Lines may be long in other parts of Georgia, but on Athens' east side things had slowed to a trickle by mid-afternoon. It was in and out for my wife and me since there was only one item on the ballot. The only thing that slowed things down any more than usual was having to show a picture ID, the by-product of an ever-controversial law requiring voters to show them before voting.
Elsewhere across Georgia, the morning was marked by long lines at polling stations. The long lines brought upwards of 200 complaints to the office of the Secretary of State.
In Atlanta, the Obama campaign has been investigating a phone scam that falsely offered some elderly voters the option to vote by phone. Despite that, Obama is seen as leading Clinton by a large margin in the state.
Elsewhere across Georgia, the morning was marked by long lines at polling stations. The long lines brought upwards of 200 complaints to the office of the Secretary of State.
In Atlanta, the Obama campaign has been investigating a phone scam that falsely offered some elderly voters the option to vote by phone. Despite that, Obama is seen as leading Clinton by a large margin in the state.
Super Tuesday
Some days you just don't need to over-complicate things with an inclusive title. Suffice it to say, today is a BIG day in the race for both parties' nominations. For a look back at Super Tuesdays past, have a look at CQ's take on the history.
Here's some of what's happening out there:
As I mentioned in a previous post, the year-end reports are in to the FEC. Here's a look at those numbers from The Washington Post (and a take from The Fix). The Democrats continue to hold a decided advantage in money raised (with Obama and Clinton both just north of $100 million raised for the year). So there are some interesting dynamics at play here. Countervailing forces, if you will. First of all, the leading indicators (presidential popularity, state of the economy, etc.) point toward this being a good election season for the Democrats. On top of that, there has been much more energy on the part of Democratic partisans to support and contribute to the Democratic pool of candidates than their counterparts on the GOP side have to Republican candidates. However, the way the race is shaping up, the GOP nomination could be decided well in advance of the Democratic choice. McCain looks to be in good shape to, if not wrap things up today, then to do quite well for himself while simultaneously putting his opponents at a large disadvantage. With things so evenly divided on the Democratic side, an even, or near even, split of states/delegates in today's contests could trigger a protracted battle between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination. So while all the signs indicate a Democratic year, circumstances could boost the GOP's chances in November. For that to play out, the GOP nominee would have to unify the part behind him while the Democratic contenders continue to beat each other up, providing more general election fodder. Here's the take on the subject in a post from The Caucus yesterday.
Speaking of protracted battles, CBS News and The New York Times have polled the Democratic superdelegates again. Clinton continues to hold a 2-1 edge (204-99) over Obama in that count. However, there are still 493 superdelegates who either did not provide an answer or still consider themselves undecided. That's nearly 62% of the superdelegates. So while the argument could be made that Clinton is the establishment candidate because of the support she has among those superdelegates, there are a number who haven't decided yet and could break in the other direction. I need to check and see if comparable polls were done of superdelegates in previous cycles; just to see when a majority of them broke for one candidate or another. Again, Clinton has the edge, but there are enough left out there to swing superdelegate support to Obama.
I'm going to hold back on a full-scale analysis of the polls today and yield to the coverage by Real Clear Politics (A Freudian slip there. At first I typed in Real CleaN Politics. Wishful thinking?). Now, on Sunday I had a look at McCain's poll position in February 5 states with winner-take-all delegate allocation rules. Those links are still live so you can compare and contrast the changes in those polls since Sunday evening. You'll notice:
That Romney has pulled to within striking distance of McCain in California (A virtual tie despite the endorsement of Gov. Schwarzenegger.).
The three way dead heat continues in Georgia.
A continued competitive, three way race in Missouri.
McCain's leads lengthened in the mid-Atlantic (NY & NJ).
On the Democratic side, Obama has continued to inch up closer to Clinton in national polls following his South Carolina win. If you look at th graphic on that link Obama leaped both after his win in Iowa and again after South Carolina. Are all or most of the people who supported other candidates choosing Obama? There is a reason those folks didn't back Clinton from the start.
Also on Real Clear Politics, there is an article laying out the various scenarios that could play out as the returns start to come in this evening.
For those of you who are lurkers on the site, feel free to stop by this evening and discuss the results as they come in. I'd like to get a nice discussion going and there shouldn't be any lack of things to talk about.
Finally, if you're really bored this evening and have access to Newsource 15 (UGA's TV news station out of the Grady School) be sure and look out for me on their Super Tuesday special this evening at 10pm. Here's the link to the live stream. The boredom reference is more a reflection of my appearance than an indictment of the show/station itself.
Here's some of what's happening out there:
As I mentioned in a previous post, the year-end reports are in to the FEC. Here's a look at those numbers from The Washington Post (and a take from The Fix). The Democrats continue to hold a decided advantage in money raised (with Obama and Clinton both just north of $100 million raised for the year). So there are some interesting dynamics at play here. Countervailing forces, if you will. First of all, the leading indicators (presidential popularity, state of the economy, etc.) point toward this being a good election season for the Democrats. On top of that, there has been much more energy on the part of Democratic partisans to support and contribute to the Democratic pool of candidates than their counterparts on the GOP side have to Republican candidates. However, the way the race is shaping up, the GOP nomination could be decided well in advance of the Democratic choice. McCain looks to be in good shape to, if not wrap things up today, then to do quite well for himself while simultaneously putting his opponents at a large disadvantage. With things so evenly divided on the Democratic side, an even, or near even, split of states/delegates in today's contests could trigger a protracted battle between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination. So while all the signs indicate a Democratic year, circumstances could boost the GOP's chances in November. For that to play out, the GOP nominee would have to unify the part behind him while the Democratic contenders continue to beat each other up, providing more general election fodder. Here's the take on the subject in a post from The Caucus yesterday.
Speaking of protracted battles, CBS News and The New York Times have polled the Democratic superdelegates again. Clinton continues to hold a 2-1 edge (204-99) over Obama in that count. However, there are still 493 superdelegates who either did not provide an answer or still consider themselves undecided. That's nearly 62% of the superdelegates. So while the argument could be made that Clinton is the establishment candidate because of the support she has among those superdelegates, there are a number who haven't decided yet and could break in the other direction. I need to check and see if comparable polls were done of superdelegates in previous cycles; just to see when a majority of them broke for one candidate or another. Again, Clinton has the edge, but there are enough left out there to swing superdelegate support to Obama.
I'm going to hold back on a full-scale analysis of the polls today and yield to the coverage by Real Clear Politics (A Freudian slip there. At first I typed in Real CleaN Politics. Wishful thinking?). Now, on Sunday I had a look at McCain's poll position in February 5 states with winner-take-all delegate allocation rules. Those links are still live so you can compare and contrast the changes in those polls since Sunday evening. You'll notice:
That Romney has pulled to within striking distance of McCain in California (A virtual tie despite the endorsement of Gov. Schwarzenegger.).
The three way dead heat continues in Georgia.
A continued competitive, three way race in Missouri.
McCain's leads lengthened in the mid-Atlantic (NY & NJ).
On the Democratic side, Obama has continued to inch up closer to Clinton in national polls following his South Carolina win. If you look at th graphic on that link Obama leaped both after his win in Iowa and again after South Carolina. Are all or most of the people who supported other candidates choosing Obama? There is a reason those folks didn't back Clinton from the start.
Also on Real Clear Politics, there is an article laying out the various scenarios that could play out as the returns start to come in this evening.
For those of you who are lurkers on the site, feel free to stop by this evening and discuss the results as they come in. I'd like to get a nice discussion going and there shouldn't be any lack of things to talk about.
Finally, if you're really bored this evening and have access to Newsource 15 (UGA's TV news station out of the Grady School) be sure and look out for me on their Super Tuesday special this evening at 10pm. Here's the link to the live stream. The boredom reference is more a reflection of my appearance than an indictment of the show/station itself.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Romney in Maine, Super Tuesday Voting Machines and the Super Bowl
Mitt Romney managed to get back in the win column again Saturday with a victory in the Maine Republican caucuses. So once again, Romney has bested his competition in a caucus state. That means all but an Iowa victory is separating im from having swept the caucus states thus far (Wyoming, Nevada, and Maine). Now, this isn't to suggest that Romney will sweep the caucuses on Tuesday (There are six in all: Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota.), but it is an interesting footnote to the proceedings since January 3.
Maine results. (Well, partial ones from the Maine GOP.)
The other consideration for the GOP candidates heading into Super Tuesday this week is whether those states going have winner-take-all systems of delegate allocation. Which February 5 states fall into that category and how do the polls look for the top GOP candidates there? Looking at the map from the New York Times posted early last week, these are the states (There was some skepticism among the group during the live discussion group this week as to how accurate these were. They have been checked and verified at The GreenPapers.com.):
Meanwhile with Super Tuesday just around the bend, Common Cause has released a report concerning the states most likely to have voting machine issues this week. And yes, Georgia is on there as one of the six states most likely to have "mishaps" with their machines (Arkansas, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee are the rest.). In other words, there may be some side stories that make waves come Wednesday morning other than simply who won, who lost and how many delegates each candidates has.
Also, tonight is the Super Bowl. As I did with the State of the Union address this past week, I'll ask here whether the Pats-Giants game will distract from the campaign going on across all sectors of the country. The Orange Bowl on the night of the Iowa caucuses did nothing to dampen the spirits of caucus goers there, and this won't pull people's attention away for too long. Obama is up with "local" ads for the game.
Maine results. (Well, partial ones from the Maine GOP.)
The other consideration for the GOP candidates heading into Super Tuesday this week is whether those states going have winner-take-all systems of delegate allocation. Which February 5 states fall into that category and how do the polls look for the top GOP candidates there? Looking at the map from the New York Times posted early last week, these are the states (There was some skepticism among the group during the live discussion group this week as to how accurate these were. They have been checked and verified at The GreenPapers.com.):
Arizona (53 Delegates)If we look at just these states, McCain looks to be in very good shape. He's behind in two (MA & UT), ahead but close in another three (CA, GA & MO) and comfortably ahead in the rest. That could net him 335 delegates; nearly a third of what is needed for the nomination. And that doesn't count what he's already secured and the delegates he could get from the other Super Tuesday states. Unlike on the Democratic side (which uses a proportional allocation), the GOP has some variation here. Romney could come in a respectable second in several of these states and have nothing to show for it. That puts him in a real bind as Tuesday approaches.
McCain 41% Romney 25
California (not a true winner-take-all) (173 Delegates)
McCain 37% Romney 32
Connecticut (30 Delegates)
McCain 45% Romney 23
Delaware (18 Delegates)
No recent polls (But McCain did win there in 2000.).
Georgia (not a true winner-take-all) (72 Delegates)
McCain 31% Romney 29 Huckabee 25
Massachusetts (This contest's allocation is disputed. NYT and TGP have it as proportional, while Rhodes Cook--via Paul's Larry Sabato email the other day--has it as winner-take-all. This is Romney territory anyway.) (43 Delegates)
Romney 54% McCain 29
Missouri (58 Delegates)
McCain 35% Huckabee 28 Romney 26
New Jersey (52 Delegates)
McCain 49% Romney 26
New York (101 Delegates)
McCain 51% Romney 23
Oklahoma (not a true winner-take-all) (41 Delegates)
McCain 40 Huckabee 19 Romney 17
Utah (36 Delegates)
No link available (Like Massachusetts, Utah is considered Romney country.).
*All poll numbers are from Real Clear Politics averages of the most recent polls in the states. Delegate numbers are from The New York Times.
Meanwhile with Super Tuesday just around the bend, Common Cause has released a report concerning the states most likely to have voting machine issues this week. And yes, Georgia is on there as one of the six states most likely to have "mishaps" with their machines (Arkansas, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee are the rest.). In other words, there may be some side stories that make waves come Wednesday morning other than simply who won, who lost and how many delegates each candidates has.
Also, tonight is the Super Bowl. As I did with the State of the Union address this past week, I'll ask here whether the Pats-Giants game will distract from the campaign going on across all sectors of the country. The Orange Bowl on the night of the Iowa caucuses did nothing to dampen the spirits of caucus goers there, and this won't pull people's attention away for too long. Obama is up with "local" ads for the game.
Friday, February 1, 2008
The One-on-One Debate
The two remaining Democrats reversed roles with the Republican presidential candidates in this week's debates. Whereas last week the stories were the back and forth bickering between Clinton and Obama in South Carolina followed by the GOP compliment-fest in Boca Raton, the debates of this week were marked by the exact opposite effect. The Republican debate from the Reagan Library showcased the personal exchanges between McCain and Romney (and lest we forget the ever popular Huckabee one-liners and Paul condemnations of the current administration's policies), while the Democrats kept it civil despite the concerted efforts of Wolf Blitzer's to bait the Democrats in to a "fight" last night. At one point he used the phrase naive to describe Clinton's support of what turned into the initial Iraq war authorization. That was the most blatant attempt at baiting on the part of the moderators last night, but certainly not the only one.
Here's the link to some videos of CNN's coverage last night.
And here's the blow-by-blow account of the pillow fight from The Caucus.
So what explains the switch? Sequencing may have something (or a lot) to do with this. See the other party bicker, and claim that mantle of civility. It probably isn't that easy, but I find it hard to imagine that last night's Democratic debate will do anything to change what will happen in next Tuesday's slew of delegate selection events. And that's another commentary on American politics. It is the negative ads and debate performances that alter the shape of things to come (or do a more pronounced job of it).
One other thing that I noticed last night (Other than Stevie Wonder being there. Didn't he become a citizen of the African nation of Ghana about a decade ago? Maybe he still enjoys American politics.) was that CNN has a series of debates scheduled for the end of the month in Ohio (ahead of the March 4 primary there). This may give us an answer to the question that came up in the live discussion group on Wednesday: How will the media play the results on Super Tuesday (as a delegate counting contest or a who-won-the-big-states contest)? By looking forward to back-to-back debates on February 27 and 28, CNN may be showing its hand: That they prefer the delegate counting option. It does make for a different story than we've had recently in presidential elections. At the very least CNN seemingly doesn't see the race ending on Tuesday night. That's fine by me.
The Maine GOP starts their caucuses today and continue on through Sunday. They won't be earth-shattering, but it'll give political junkies a little something to tide them over until Tuesday rolls around.
And here's another Fix take on VP speculation.
Keep in mind that Year-End Reports were due to the FEC yesterday. That will be the first real indication of where the candidates are (or were) financially. I haven't seen much if any press mention of the reports yet. Here's a little from the Boston Globe.
Here's the link to some videos of CNN's coverage last night.
And here's the blow-by-blow account of the pillow fight from The Caucus.
So what explains the switch? Sequencing may have something (or a lot) to do with this. See the other party bicker, and claim that mantle of civility. It probably isn't that easy, but I find it hard to imagine that last night's Democratic debate will do anything to change what will happen in next Tuesday's slew of delegate selection events. And that's another commentary on American politics. It is the negative ads and debate performances that alter the shape of things to come (or do a more pronounced job of it).
One other thing that I noticed last night (Other than Stevie Wonder being there. Didn't he become a citizen of the African nation of Ghana about a decade ago? Maybe he still enjoys American politics.) was that CNN has a series of debates scheduled for the end of the month in Ohio (ahead of the March 4 primary there). This may give us an answer to the question that came up in the live discussion group on Wednesday: How will the media play the results on Super Tuesday (as a delegate counting contest or a who-won-the-big-states contest)? By looking forward to back-to-back debates on February 27 and 28, CNN may be showing its hand: That they prefer the delegate counting option. It does make for a different story than we've had recently in presidential elections. At the very least CNN seemingly doesn't see the race ending on Tuesday night. That's fine by me.
The Maine GOP starts their caucuses today and continue on through Sunday. They won't be earth-shattering, but it'll give political junkies a little something to tide them over until Tuesday rolls around.
And here's another Fix take on VP speculation.
Keep in mind that Year-End Reports were due to the FEC yesterday. That will be the first real indication of where the candidates are (or were) financially. I haven't seen much if any press mention of the reports yet. Here's a little from the Boston Globe.
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