As we are apt to do when the nomination season rolls around, we tend to shift the focus to what is next in the process instead of casting an eye toward what has been (and why). It is not unlike the classic one-night-stand scenario though Super Tuesday in that context is a bit overwhelming...but I digress. Political scientists are always haunted by these "what has been" and "why" questions (or they should be if they want to make it in the discipline). When something new like the Nevada caucus comes along, it presents a natural opportunity for unique research. So instead of moving on to Wisconsin and Hawaii, why not look back at Nevada for a moment. Occasional commenter and all-the-time Nevada area political scientist, Dave Damore, has a great post-postmortem (I already used postmortem to describe it in an earlier post.) of the January 19 Nevada caucuses up on politickernv.com. Good stuff.
While you're there, be sure to check out (and I'm not trying to divert attention away from Dave's post) the sister sites in other states--in the middle column. Both some of the states that have gone and some that have yet to go are represented. All should have good insight on the contests in those states.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
The Potomac Primary Results Show
Polls close in Virginia in the next couple of minutes and in DC and Maryland at 8pm. How will it play out tonight? We'll use a top down update approach tonight.
9:52pm: Back tomorrow with more on the impact of the race heading forward and impressions of what transpired.
9:50pm: Here are the results via NYT's Election Guide (ooh, with the maps):
9:48pm: CNN and the other networks are now calling DC for Obama and McCain. No real shock there. Well, the shock is that it took so long for any results to surface.
9:30pm: Again, that didn't take long. The networks (here's CNN) have chalked Maryland up for Obama and McCain already. Not really a surprise on either side, but such an early call is bad news for Clinton and Huckabee.
9:29pm: Well, DC won't post anything until 10:30 according to the Board of Elections there (via The Caucus--9:25pm post).
9:17pm: Suh-low. Things have slowed way down. Well, polls are only a few more minutes away from closing in Maryland.
8:54pm: Well, the 8 o'clock hour was a bit strange. Maryland got pushed back and DC disappeared. The New York Times has replaced the 8pm poll closing time with 0% reporting for DC, so the numbers should begin trickling (apparently) in soon.
8:41pm: Now all the rest of the networks are following suit on the McCain call in Virginia. Does Huckabee's showing attain better than expected status? The margin will be less than ten points. In the end, I think it continues to indicate that McCain has issues with conservatives, but that story is going to get old fast if McCain keeps winning.
8:35pm: CNN is calling Virginia for McCain. This thing is still very close (from the NYT Election Guide--48% reporting).
McCain 46.4%
Huckabee 45.2
8:18pm: Ouch! The shake ups continue in the Clinton campaign. Now her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, has resigned (via The Fix). This just won't look good beside headlines like the one immediately below.
8:16pm: CNN is running the headline, "Obama Wins 6th in a Row." Truthfully, does that smack of momentum or not?
8:01pm: Or not. Polls in Maryland will be open until 9:30pm because of inclement weather across the state.
7:53pm: We are now seven minutes away from DC and Maryland closing up shop for the night. How quickly will those races be called and how much longer will the GOP race in Virginia play out?
7:50pm: Is it me or is this Clinton-Texas-Ohio firewall strategy not at least somewhat reminiscent of Giuliani's holing up in Florida for the entire month of January? Now, I'm sure she'll make some appearances in Wisconsin, but Obama is there now celebrating his Virginia win (see 7:41 post on The Caucus live blog). I don't know, that parallel just popped into my head.
7:45pm: Just looking at the map on the Times Election Guide for Virginia, western Virginia looks like Arkansas east. Clinton and Huckabee did their best in the rural, mountain part of the state. Look for the college areas (also in the mountain region of Virginia) in Blackburg and Charlottesville to go for Obama and McCain though.
7:41pm: I don't know what hurts McCain worse: that Virginia is close or that Virginia has an open primary and it is still a close race with independents (Well, the ones who didn't decide to cast their vote for Obama. I thought that was supposed to be the New Hampshire outcome.).
7:33pm: Now the numbers that we expected to see begin to emerge (3% reporting). The better than expected scenario looks better for Huckabee than it does for Clinton right now.
7:21pm: Here come the Virginia numbers (from the New York Times Election Guide--0% reporting):
7:15pm: Despite the exit polling, let's not forget that Virginia holds an open primary and that Maryland is closed. That may give Clinton something of an advantage in Maryland until you factor in the reports of very high turnout among African Americans there (see caption below picture). One thing to note also from that story is that white men went with Obama over Clinton in Virginia. Virginia women backed Obama as well (see 7:09 post on The Caucus' live blog).
7:08pm: Notice that no one is calling the Virginia race on the Republican side. Can that be good news for McCain?
7:03pm: Now the New York Times is reporting that the major networks (Here's ABC's.) and the AP have projected Obama the winner in Virginia. That was fast.
7:00pm: The Drudge Report is indicating that exit polls show Obama ahead 2:1 in Virginia and Maryland and 3:1 in DC. If that comes to pass that will out pace even the rosiest of polls favoring Obama in those locales recently. *As always, these are exit polls, not actually results.
9:52pm: Back tomorrow with more on the impact of the race heading forward and impressions of what transpired.
9:50pm: Here are the results via NYT's Election Guide (ooh, with the maps):
Virginia
DC
Maryland
9:48pm: CNN and the other networks are now calling DC for Obama and McCain. No real shock there. Well, the shock is that it took so long for any results to surface.
9:30pm: Again, that didn't take long. The networks (here's CNN) have chalked Maryland up for Obama and McCain already. Not really a surprise on either side, but such an early call is bad news for Clinton and Huckabee.
9:29pm: Well, DC won't post anything until 10:30 according to the Board of Elections there (via The Caucus--9:25pm post).
9:17pm: Suh-low. Things have slowed way down. Well, polls are only a few more minutes away from closing in Maryland.
8:54pm: Well, the 8 o'clock hour was a bit strange. Maryland got pushed back and DC disappeared. The New York Times has replaced the 8pm poll closing time with 0% reporting for DC, so the numbers should begin trickling (apparently) in soon.
8:41pm: Now all the rest of the networks are following suit on the McCain call in Virginia. Does Huckabee's showing attain better than expected status? The margin will be less than ten points. In the end, I think it continues to indicate that McCain has issues with conservatives, but that story is going to get old fast if McCain keeps winning.
8:35pm: CNN is calling Virginia for McCain. This thing is still very close (from the NYT Election Guide--48% reporting).
McCain 46.4%
Huckabee 45.2
8:18pm: Ouch! The shake ups continue in the Clinton campaign. Now her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, has resigned (via The Fix). This just won't look good beside headlines like the one immediately below.
8:16pm: CNN is running the headline, "Obama Wins 6th in a Row." Truthfully, does that smack of momentum or not?
8:01pm: Or not. Polls in Maryland will be open until 9:30pm because of inclement weather across the state.
7:53pm: We are now seven minutes away from DC and Maryland closing up shop for the night. How quickly will those races be called and how much longer will the GOP race in Virginia play out?
7:50pm: Is it me or is this Clinton-Texas-Ohio firewall strategy not at least somewhat reminiscent of Giuliani's holing up in Florida for the entire month of January? Now, I'm sure she'll make some appearances in Wisconsin, but Obama is there now celebrating his Virginia win (see 7:41 post on The Caucus live blog). I don't know, that parallel just popped into my head.
7:45pm: Just looking at the map on the Times Election Guide for Virginia, western Virginia looks like Arkansas east. Clinton and Huckabee did their best in the rural, mountain part of the state. Look for the college areas (also in the mountain region of Virginia) in Blackburg and Charlottesville to go for Obama and McCain though.
7:41pm: I don't know what hurts McCain worse: that Virginia is close or that Virginia has an open primary and it is still a close race with independents (Well, the ones who didn't decide to cast their vote for Obama. I thought that was supposed to be the New Hampshire outcome.).
7:33pm: Now the numbers that we expected to see begin to emerge (3% reporting). The better than expected scenario looks better for Huckabee than it does for Clinton right now.
Democrats:
Obama 62.1%
Clinton 36.9
Republicans:
McCain 44.3%
Huckabee 48.2
7:21pm: Here come the Virginia numbers (from the New York Times Election Guide--0% reporting):
Democrats:What does that tell us? Not much. If anything, if the numbers were flip-flopped between parties it would probably end up being more accurate. Now's the time to remind everyone that it is the Times that has those great county by county maps.
Obama 50.6%
Clinton 48.1
Republicans:
McCain 38%
Huckabee 54.9
7:15pm: Despite the exit polling, let's not forget that Virginia holds an open primary and that Maryland is closed. That may give Clinton something of an advantage in Maryland until you factor in the reports of very high turnout among African Americans there (see caption below picture). One thing to note also from that story is that white men went with Obama over Clinton in Virginia. Virginia women backed Obama as well (see 7:09 post on The Caucus' live blog).
7:08pm: Notice that no one is calling the Virginia race on the Republican side. Can that be good news for McCain?
7:03pm: Now the New York Times is reporting that the major networks (Here's ABC's.) and the AP have projected Obama the winner in Virginia. That was fast.
7:00pm: The Drudge Report is indicating that exit polls show Obama ahead 2:1 in Virginia and Maryland and 3:1 in DC. If that comes to pass that will out pace even the rosiest of polls favoring Obama in those locales recently. *As always, these are exit polls, not actually results.
New Mexico and Washington...Still Up in the Air
Let's start off in New Mexico. Voting in the Land of Enchantment ended last Tuesday (Super Tuesday) and the result of the Democratic caucuses is still undecided. In fact, Clinton and Obama, just like in the broader contest, are virtually tied. The vote totals from the New York Times Election Guide count favors Clinton by about 1100 votes or .8 percentage points. Fine, it was a close election. Clinton won. What's the big deal? Well, at issue are 15,100 provisional ballots. According to the New Mexico Democratic Party, a first run through those ballots netted almost 5500 ballots cast by registered Democrats; or enough to potentially swing the election (That's 3.7% of the vote.). A second check of those ballots will be made against a "more extensive database" and could yield more registered Democrats who cast ballots.
What do we make of this? Well, no matter what the outcome is (and it will be a close margin for either candidate), there will be a nearly equivalent number of delegates allocated to each candidate. It is an important outcome for either though and here's why. The Latino vote and the implications that has for Texas on March 4. Clinton has done well in southwestern states with large proportions of Latino voters. She has wins in California, Nevada and Arizona. If she wins New Mexico, that is a bridge from California all the way to Texas bolstered by that demographic group. That is a nice argument to be able to make in a state as seemingly vital to her campaign as Texas. On the other hand, if Obama were to come out victorious in New Mexico, he could argue that he can hold his own in heavily Latino states, whether he carries that group or not. He got one more delegate out of Nevada than Clinton despite placing second and that coupled with a New Mexico win would create a good Obama talking point for Texas Democrats. In other words, New Mexico may make its way in to the discussions once the focus shifts to Texas based on demographics.
While we're on the subject of Texas, it should be noted that the state continues to have a hybrid primary/caucus system of delegate allocation on the Democratic side. That system has been in place since 1980 when a non-binding primary was added. The primary gained significance when it became binding in 1988 for the bigger iteration of the Southern Super Tuesday. Michael Dukakis won the primary (and the attention) while Jesse Jackson managed a win in the caucuses. It, no doubt, is easy to see a similar "split decision" scenario playing out this year in Texas. 228 total delegates are up for grabs in Texas. 126 are at stake in the primary while 67 are on the line in the caucus portion. There are 35 additional superdelegates as well. That dynamic is certainly worth keeping an eye on as the Texas delegate selection event approaches on March 4.
In Washington, the controversy is on the GOP side. The past weekend's caucus in the Evergreen State caused a stir over when the race was "called." Luke Esser, the state GOP chair, guesstimated that McCain was the narrow winner over Huckabee with only 87% of the precincts reporting. And really, how is that any different than what the networks do any time we have one of these contests. Mike Huckabee thought otherwise, drawing parallels between the state party's electoral actions and those of the former Soviet Union. Esser has disputed those claims with an open letter posted on the party's web page. And the results to this point seem to back him up. But it is all very convenient since the letter was posted today and the latest results were up as of late last night. Huckabee will lose this fight. He would be better served focusing on Virginia and Texas.
Here are those Washington GOP results.
What do we make of this? Well, no matter what the outcome is (and it will be a close margin for either candidate), there will be a nearly equivalent number of delegates allocated to each candidate. It is an important outcome for either though and here's why. The Latino vote and the implications that has for Texas on March 4. Clinton has done well in southwestern states with large proportions of Latino voters. She has wins in California, Nevada and Arizona. If she wins New Mexico, that is a bridge from California all the way to Texas bolstered by that demographic group. That is a nice argument to be able to make in a state as seemingly vital to her campaign as Texas. On the other hand, if Obama were to come out victorious in New Mexico, he could argue that he can hold his own in heavily Latino states, whether he carries that group or not. He got one more delegate out of Nevada than Clinton despite placing second and that coupled with a New Mexico win would create a good Obama talking point for Texas Democrats. In other words, New Mexico may make its way in to the discussions once the focus shifts to Texas based on demographics.
While we're on the subject of Texas, it should be noted that the state continues to have a hybrid primary/caucus system of delegate allocation on the Democratic side. That system has been in place since 1980 when a non-binding primary was added. The primary gained significance when it became binding in 1988 for the bigger iteration of the Southern Super Tuesday. Michael Dukakis won the primary (and the attention) while Jesse Jackson managed a win in the caucuses. It, no doubt, is easy to see a similar "split decision" scenario playing out this year in Texas. 228 total delegates are up for grabs in Texas. 126 are at stake in the primary while 67 are on the line in the caucus portion. There are 35 additional superdelegates as well. That dynamic is certainly worth keeping an eye on as the Texas delegate selection event approaches on March 4.
In Washington, the controversy is on the GOP side. The past weekend's caucus in the Evergreen State caused a stir over when the race was "called." Luke Esser, the state GOP chair, guesstimated that McCain was the narrow winner over Huckabee with only 87% of the precincts reporting. And really, how is that any different than what the networks do any time we have one of these contests. Mike Huckabee thought otherwise, drawing parallels between the state party's electoral actions and those of the former Soviet Union. Esser has disputed those claims with an open letter posted on the party's web page. And the results to this point seem to back him up. But it is all very convenient since the letter was posted today and the latest results were up as of late last night. Huckabee will lose this fight. He would be better served focusing on Virginia and Texas.
Here are those Washington GOP results.
Setting the Stage for a "Better than Expected" Moment?
I prefer the moniker Potomac Primary to the alternate Chesapeake Primary, so I'll go with the former as I discuss the delegate selection events in Maryland, DC and Virginia over the next few days. As we've learned during the course of the delegate phase of these nomination contests, nothing can be taken for granted. A quick glance at the Real Clear Politics average of polls in Virginia (Dems/GOP) and Maryland (Dems/GOP) on both sides paints a seemingly clear picture: McCain and Obama should do well today.
However, that opens the door to the inevitable discussion of expectations. Bill Clinton was expected to finish back in the pack in New Hampshire in 1992. His better than expected second place showing though bolstered support for him as the next series of contests approached; helping to catapult him to the lead in the race for the nomination that year. That is probably the most famous (or oft-cited) example of the phenomenon, but gives pause to the idea of handing today's contests to either McCain or Obama. It never is completely about winning. The margins matter. This fits the Democratic contest better than the Republican race, where Huckabee can hope that evangelical conservatives can keep him competitive in Virginia and that's pretty much it (*The two recent Survey USA polls cited on RCP (see above links) show the gap closing in Maryland but is still double digits for McCain.). For the Democrats though, all is doom and gloom for the Clinton camp...if you read the media accounts of the race. The New York Times has her shifting the focus to Ohio and Texas; drawing a line in the sand on March 4. One superdelegate supporting Clinton was quoted in the article as saying:
The Washington Post pens a slightly rosier story in answering a series of eight questions about the potential impact of region's contests today (The Post also has a nice rundown of what the candidates were up to on the last day of campaigning in the region.).
I'll be back later in the day with a post updating the vote counting situations in Washington and New Mexico and with a results post tonight. In the meantime, the comments section awaits.
However, that opens the door to the inevitable discussion of expectations. Bill Clinton was expected to finish back in the pack in New Hampshire in 1992. His better than expected second place showing though bolstered support for him as the next series of contests approached; helping to catapult him to the lead in the race for the nomination that year. That is probably the most famous (or oft-cited) example of the phenomenon, but gives pause to the idea of handing today's contests to either McCain or Obama. It never is completely about winning. The margins matter. This fits the Democratic contest better than the Republican race, where Huckabee can hope that evangelical conservatives can keep him competitive in Virginia and that's pretty much it (*The two recent Survey USA polls cited on RCP (see above links) show the gap closing in Maryland but is still double digits for McCain.). For the Democrats though, all is doom and gloom for the Clinton camp...if you read the media accounts of the race. The New York Times has her shifting the focus to Ohio and Texas; drawing a line in the sand on March 4. One superdelegate supporting Clinton was quoted in the article as saying:
“'She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out. The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.' Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view."On the flip side, Obama is garnering headlines like: Obama Hopes to Rout Clinton in Primaries. I don't know, but titles like that seem to build the perception that today's events are over before they start; potentially laying the groundwork for a better than expected showing for Clinton. POTENTIALLY. There is a precedent this cycle to back me up on this. Anyone remember New Hampshire?
The Washington Post pens a slightly rosier story in answering a series of eight questions about the potential impact of region's contests today (The Post also has a nice rundown of what the candidates were up to on the last day of campaigning in the region.).
There are good reasons to avoid slapping [the frontrunner] label on Obama. One is that his margin in delegates will be far smaller than the number of superdelegates still undecided, and it is still assumed that the Clinton camp will be ferocious in its pursuit of those still undeclared. Another reason is Obama himself, who is likely to prefer to continue running as an outsider and an underdog.Despite the naysayers, Clinton could still do better than expected today and ward off the momentum talk in relation to Obama's post-Super Tuesday performances. Winning one contest would be ideal (if unlikely), but keeping things in the single digits would go a long way toward shaping perceptions coming out of the today's elections (if only to keep the delegate allocations even). I should go ahead and caution everyone that these are completely arbitrary thresholds. The alternate take from the media could be that, no matter what the margins are, an Obama sweep is the story of the night. Further, we could begin to see some discussion of the "big mo'" with Obama-favorable contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii next week. One last thing that could bode well for the Clinton campaign is that all the contests today are primaries and not caucuses. Does that insure success for her? No, but the fact that these are not caucuses has not escaped anyone and it can't hurt.
I'll be back later in the day with a post updating the vote counting situations in Washington and New Mexico and with a results post tonight. In the meantime, the comments section awaits.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Better Late than Never: Maine Results and A New Clinton Campaign Manager
Dissertations sometimes get in the way (and if I want a job in this field it better). Yesterday was one of those days. However, that didn't prevent there from being any fewer interesting stories from the campaign trail.
Obama make it a clean sweep of the weekend contests with a surprising victory in the Maine caucuses yesterday. Yes, surprising. Given the Illinois senator's caucus prowess thus far, surprising may not be an apt description of events on the ground. However, Clinton was expected to do well in a state that fit her better demographically and in which she had secured a number of top endorsements. It wasn't the two to one victory margin of Washington or Nebraska, but a twenty point win is a twenty point win.
Sure you can argue that it was just a caucus, but that argument seems less valid in this contest in this cycle. Most of the Democratic primaries have been evenly divided with a fairly even distribution of delegates emerging for both candidates. Obama though gives himself a cushion with these decisive caucus victories. Instead of a one or two delegates difference between the candidates in some of these primaries, we larger delegates margins in the recent (February 5 and on) caucus states. That's a nice counter to the superdelegate lead that Clinton has built.
Is that enough to put him over the top? Well, that is the question. And one that is difficult to answer since the majority of these caucuses are the first of two or three steps in allocating delegates (the last of which will do the delegate allocating). Iowa, for example, has its Democratic county conventions on March 15 and that is followed by district conventions on April 26 and then a state convention on June 14. That is when the delegates to the national convention are actually allocated. Will Obama lose delegates in the coming caucus steps? Probably not since he has proven to have the superior grassroots organizations in the caucus states. I made the comment earlier that Obama's established grassroots efforts would trump Clinton's on-the-fly grassroots efforts. If that is the direction the Clinton camp is taking with a new campaign manager (more on that in a moment), then these second and third caucus steps could potentially be the place to reverse the Obama caucus trend through grassroots means. Is that far-fetched? Perhaps, but let us not forget all the bartering and side-switching that went on during Iowa caucus night.
In other news over the weekend, Clinton and her campaign manager, Patricia Solis Doyle, parted ways. The Fix and The Caucus chose to call it "stepping down" while Fox News opted for the slightly more negative "replaces" to describe what had transpired. Either way you slice it, this coming on the heels of the personal loan to her campaign last week, does not make for a positive combination of stories...especially after to failing to break through in any of the weekend contests. So it remains to be seen how much impact this campaign shake up (Doyle for Maggie Williams) will have. Howard Dean dropped Joe Trippi either just before or just after Super Tuesday and John Kerry had some internal staff shifts in 2004 as did Al Gore in 2000. In case this fact slipped anyone's mind, none of those men became president. An omen for Clinton? Perhaps. One thing is for sure, something needs to be done to stem the Obama tide in these next few contests or we could be dusting off the "big mo'" before too long. Dare I say momentum? In this race? I won't yet, but that moment could be coming.
Obama make it a clean sweep of the weekend contests with a surprising victory in the Maine caucuses yesterday. Yes, surprising. Given the Illinois senator's caucus prowess thus far, surprising may not be an apt description of events on the ground. However, Clinton was expected to do well in a state that fit her better demographically and in which she had secured a number of top endorsements. It wasn't the two to one victory margin of Washington or Nebraska, but a twenty point win is a twenty point win.
Sure you can argue that it was just a caucus, but that argument seems less valid in this contest in this cycle. Most of the Democratic primaries have been evenly divided with a fairly even distribution of delegates emerging for both candidates. Obama though gives himself a cushion with these decisive caucus victories. Instead of a one or two delegates difference between the candidates in some of these primaries, we larger delegates margins in the recent (February 5 and on) caucus states. That's a nice counter to the superdelegate lead that Clinton has built.
Is that enough to put him over the top? Well, that is the question. And one that is difficult to answer since the majority of these caucuses are the first of two or three steps in allocating delegates (the last of which will do the delegate allocating). Iowa, for example, has its Democratic county conventions on March 15 and that is followed by district conventions on April 26 and then a state convention on June 14. That is when the delegates to the national convention are actually allocated. Will Obama lose delegates in the coming caucus steps? Probably not since he has proven to have the superior grassroots organizations in the caucus states. I made the comment earlier that Obama's established grassroots efforts would trump Clinton's on-the-fly grassroots efforts. If that is the direction the Clinton camp is taking with a new campaign manager (more on that in a moment), then these second and third caucus steps could potentially be the place to reverse the Obama caucus trend through grassroots means. Is that far-fetched? Perhaps, but let us not forget all the bartering and side-switching that went on during Iowa caucus night.
In other news over the weekend, Clinton and her campaign manager, Patricia Solis Doyle, parted ways. The Fix and The Caucus chose to call it "stepping down" while Fox News opted for the slightly more negative "replaces" to describe what had transpired. Either way you slice it, this coming on the heels of the personal loan to her campaign last week, does not make for a positive combination of stories...especially after to failing to break through in any of the weekend contests. So it remains to be seen how much impact this campaign shake up (Doyle for Maggie Williams) will have. Howard Dean dropped Joe Trippi either just before or just after Super Tuesday and John Kerry had some internal staff shifts in 2004 as did Al Gore in 2000. In case this fact slipped anyone's mind, none of those men became president. An omen for Clinton? Perhaps. One thing is for sure, something needs to be done to stem the Obama tide in these next few contests or we could be dusting off the "big mo'" before too long. Dare I say momentum? In this race? I won't yet, but that moment could be coming.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Here Come the Results...and the Delegate Count
As Mike Huckabee has been apt to do during this cycle, he struck first. He won the nation's first contest in Iowa. He won the first contest of Super Tuesday in West Virginia. And, as I posted earlier, he won the first contest of this weekend in Kansas. His win there kicked off the results of the day. Results that are just now starting to come in.
I'll resist the urge to go faux game show voice on you and declare, "Tell them what they've won," (Well, I just did it, didn't I?) but here is the picture that is beginning emerge this evening. This is going to sound like a broken record from Super Tuesday night and its aftermath, but caucuses are Obama's territory. He's been given the nod in both Nebraska and Washington (state). And by the same large margins he enjoyed in the caucuses on Tuesday night (two to one in both cases). At some point these large margins in the caucuses are going to help him catch up with (or increase) and pass Clinton's delegate total. His totals relative to hers will increase because the margins in these caucuses are so large compared to the near even division of delegates in most of the other primaries.
While we're on the subject of delegates, the New York Times has a couple of good pieces up now. One discusses the disparity in delegate counts from the networks, new outlets and the campaigns while another details the efforts of the Clinton and Obama camps to lure superdelegates into their folds. The members of Congress they spoke to in the latter article, seemed a bit unnerved by the task of potentially choosing the party's nominee. They seem to be biding their time, hoping that one of the candidates emerges as the winner at the conclusion of primary season.
Saturday's Results:
9:39pm: There are some tight races shaping up for the GOP in Washington (Huckabee 25.9% McCain 26.6--16% reporting) and the Dems in Louisiana (Obama 40.3% Clinton 40.7--still 0% reporting).
The morning after:
Not surprisingly, 0% reporting doesn't mean a whole lot. Once the rest of Louisiana start sending in their vote tallies, it was clear that Obama, as he had in Nebraska and Washington, had won a convincing victory. Louisiana also delivered something of a surprise on the Republican end. Though Mike Huckabee won in Louisiana, he didn't get any delegates out of the victory. The winner of the GOP primary in the state had to win a majority of the vote to be allocated the twenty delegates at stake. Those delegates will now go to the Republican national convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul unpledged. All but six of the remaining delegates on the line in Louisiana (21) will be awarded at next weekend's state convention.
In Washington, the Republican race was a tight, four-way affair. McCain and Huckabee were separated by about two percentage points (25.5 - 23.7) with 87% of caucus sites reporting. Ron Paul (20.6) and Mitt Romney (16.5) were just a handful of points behind though. To be clear, those latter two won't factor into the media discussions of the results today, but it is clear that they received a good bit of support in the state.
What does it all mean? Well, on the Republican side, McCain is in the same position he was in on Tuesday night. He is in great shape in the delegate count in relation to his main competitor. However, he doesn't have things completely wrapped up as candidates at the same point in past cycles (post-Super Tuesday) and it never looks good to lose any contest when you are the "presumptive" nominee. I'll be honest: I hadn't thought of this until yesterday when I saw some Huckabee supports talking about it. Is his candidacy now about winning or stopping McCain from winning? It may not be the Huckabee campaign's intention, but this sentiment is starting to rise up from within the anti-McCain faction of the party. The goal is not to have Huckabee necessarily become the nominee, but to keep McCain from gaining the 1191 delegates necessary to become the nominee. That could trigger a brokered convention with McCain as the clear frontrunner, but it would be a brokered convention nonetheless. Will this happen? I doubt it. These sorts of things just don't happen in a party like the Republican party that operates from the top-down.
And on the Democratic side? Well, Obama's run through yesterday's three states has put the pressure on the Clinton campaign to be sure. Maine is seen as hospitable territory for her. And as such, it becomes the closest thing to a must win since the race hit New Hampshire. And with the Potomac Primary coming up on Tuesday (three primaries with a sizable African American presence), it may be Clinton's last best shot before the race hits Texas on March 4. To be clear, Virginia is seen as a good opportunity for Clinton as well, but not as good as Maine is today. All wouldn't be lost with another Obama win (in another caucus), but it is incumbent upon the Clinton folks to stem the tide of the Obama momentum before it is too late.
I'll resist the urge to go faux game show voice on you and declare, "Tell them what they've won," (Well, I just did it, didn't I?) but here is the picture that is beginning emerge this evening. This is going to sound like a broken record from Super Tuesday night and its aftermath, but caucuses are Obama's territory. He's been given the nod in both Nebraska and Washington (state). And by the same large margins he enjoyed in the caucuses on Tuesday night (two to one in both cases). At some point these large margins in the caucuses are going to help him catch up with (or increase) and pass Clinton's delegate total. His totals relative to hers will increase because the margins in these caucuses are so large compared to the near even division of delegates in most of the other primaries.
While we're on the subject of delegates, the New York Times has a couple of good pieces up now. One discusses the disparity in delegate counts from the networks, new outlets and the campaigns while another details the efforts of the Clinton and Obama camps to lure superdelegates into their folds. The members of Congress they spoke to in the latter article, seemed a bit unnerved by the task of potentially choosing the party's nominee. They seem to be biding their time, hoping that one of the candidates emerges as the winner at the conclusion of primary season.
Saturday's Results:
Kansas GOP
Washington: Washington Democrats are nearly two-thirds done with their vote tallying, and state Republicans have yet to report any results. The party's web page even turned up nothing; only the message that results would come to light starting at 6pm(PT) or fifteen minutes ago by my watch.
Nebraska Dems
from the New York Times
from the Nebraska Democratic Party
Louisiana: Very early on in the Pelican state (We're talking 0% reporting.), here's what we see:
Democrats
Obama 59%
Clinton 28
Republicans
McCain 58%
Huckabee 19
9:39pm: There are some tight races shaping up for the GOP in Washington (Huckabee 25.9% McCain 26.6--16% reporting) and the Dems in Louisiana (Obama 40.3% Clinton 40.7--still 0% reporting).
The morning after:
Not surprisingly, 0% reporting doesn't mean a whole lot. Once the rest of Louisiana start sending in their vote tallies, it was clear that Obama, as he had in Nebraska and Washington, had won a convincing victory. Louisiana also delivered something of a surprise on the Republican end. Though Mike Huckabee won in Louisiana, he didn't get any delegates out of the victory. The winner of the GOP primary in the state had to win a majority of the vote to be allocated the twenty delegates at stake. Those delegates will now go to the Republican national convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul unpledged. All but six of the remaining delegates on the line in Louisiana (21) will be awarded at next weekend's state convention.
In Washington, the Republican race was a tight, four-way affair. McCain and Huckabee were separated by about two percentage points (25.5 - 23.7) with 87% of caucus sites reporting. Ron Paul (20.6) and Mitt Romney (16.5) were just a handful of points behind though. To be clear, those latter two won't factor into the media discussions of the results today, but it is clear that they received a good bit of support in the state.
What does it all mean? Well, on the Republican side, McCain is in the same position he was in on Tuesday night. He is in great shape in the delegate count in relation to his main competitor. However, he doesn't have things completely wrapped up as candidates at the same point in past cycles (post-Super Tuesday) and it never looks good to lose any contest when you are the "presumptive" nominee. I'll be honest: I hadn't thought of this until yesterday when I saw some Huckabee supports talking about it. Is his candidacy now about winning or stopping McCain from winning? It may not be the Huckabee campaign's intention, but this sentiment is starting to rise up from within the anti-McCain faction of the party. The goal is not to have Huckabee necessarily become the nominee, but to keep McCain from gaining the 1191 delegates necessary to become the nominee. That could trigger a brokered convention with McCain as the clear frontrunner, but it would be a brokered convention nonetheless. Will this happen? I doubt it. These sorts of things just don't happen in a party like the Republican party that operates from the top-down.
And on the Democratic side? Well, Obama's run through yesterday's three states has put the pressure on the Clinton campaign to be sure. Maine is seen as hospitable territory for her. And as such, it becomes the closest thing to a must win since the race hit New Hampshire. And with the Potomac Primary coming up on Tuesday (three primaries with a sizable African American presence), it may be Clinton's last best shot before the race hits Texas on March 4. To be clear, Virginia is seen as a good opportunity for Clinton as well, but not as good as Maine is today. All wouldn't be lost with another Obama win (in another caucus), but it is incumbent upon the Clinton folks to stem the tide of the Obama momentum before it is too late.
One Question Answered...Huckabee wins Kansas
One of the questions posed in today's earlier post was how Mike Huckabee would do in the post-Romney race for the GOP nomination. We have an answer: not bad. He won the caucuses in Kansas today. I still don't know what to make of this phenomenon. I suppose there is an anti-McCain sentiment among GOP voters and Huckabee is now the lone recipient of that group's support. He may keep things positive with McCain, and even if there is or isn't a plan in the works for them to join forces at some point, Huckabee's success may force McCain's hand in the future.
While the Democratic battle is evenly contested, the GOP race remains interesting. You have to go back several cycles to have anything similar to this (The 1992 Democratic nomination when Bill Clinton emerged is the last real example of a race that stretched on past Super Tuesday.). In 2004, Edwards had some delegates and was the last viable candidate out. The catch is that he only won once. Huckabee keeps winning. So, one candidate has a comfortable lead in the delegate count. The other candidate has enough support and delegates to lay claim to staying in the race, but cannot (most likely) catch up in the delegate count to make it a race again.
While the Democratic battle is evenly contested, the GOP race remains interesting. You have to go back several cycles to have anything similar to this (The 1992 Democratic nomination when Bill Clinton emerged is the last real example of a race that stretched on past Super Tuesday.). In 2004, Edwards had some delegates and was the last viable candidate out. The catch is that he only won once. Huckabee keeps winning. So, one candidate has a comfortable lead in the delegate count. The other candidate has enough support and delegates to lay claim to staying in the race, but cannot (most likely) catch up in the delegate count to make it a race again.
Super Tuesday Meet Super Weekend (...and, oh yeah, Romney's Out)
With Super Tuesday this past week, the presidential nomination race(s) waved goodbye to the contest by contest progression and ushered in multiple contest delegate selection days (or weekends). On tap this weekend are Saturday caucuses in Washington, Nebraska (Democrats only), Kansas (Republicans only) and the Louisiana primary. Maine Democrats caucus on Sunday. The Caucus has some of the lowdown on the contests.
Here's the line up for today:
Kansas GOP: Things get under way there at 11am(ET). Kansas should give us the first glimpse at the race post-Romney. The big question is how competitive Huckabee will be now that McCain is transitioning into party unifying mode.
Nebraska Dems: Nebraska Democrats abandoned the longstanding, late May primary in favor of this February 9 caucus for this cycle. The county meetings have staggered start times but the state party's web site claims that results will start coming in around 8:15pm(ET) this evening. As I've made clear over the course of this week's posts, Obama has done well in caucuses, so it will be interesting to see if that streak continues. Turnout is high in at least one precinct.
Washington: Both the Democrats and Republicans begin caucusing at 4pm(ET). The questions in the Evergreen state on both sides are similar to the questions posed above. Is Huckabee in this thing or is he out of his element outside the southeast? For the Democrats, can Clinton reverse the Obama caucus streak. It may be late on the east coast before we have an answer to either question.
Louisiana: The sole primary on the day's calendar closes its polls at 6pm(ET) on the Democratic side and at 9pm(ET) for the GOP. Louisiana is different than the rest of the South demographically, but Huckabee should gain a boost from whatever evangelical presence there is in the state. Likewise, Obama should do well among African Americans and in the state despite the way that Hurricane Katrina disproportionately ravaged that segment of the Pelican state's population. Thirty-two percent of the population was African American during the 2000 census before Katrina hit.
Tomorrow's slate is Maine, Maine and Maine. The Pine Tree state's Democrats have the spotlight all to themselves on Sunday as caucusing goes on across the state throughout the afternoon. And hey, it's a caucus, so Obama should have the advantage, right? Clinton does have the support of the governor (from The Fix):
I'll be back later today to look at the results as they begin coming in and discussing the ramifications of the outcomes (...if it isn't too late).
Meanwhile, I'm coming in a couple of days after the fact here, but still find this worth bringing up. Mitt Romney suspended the operations of his campaign on Thursday; ending what looked like the last, best challenge to McCain in the Republican race. And that's no knock on Huckabee. Romney was situated in a similar ideological area as the former Arkansas governor, but had plenty of his own money at his disposal. And money is what will be needed if a serious challenge to McCain were to be made. In the end though the math was just too difficult for Romney to overcome. Without winner-take-all contests dominating the landscape of contests in the next month, the task of catching up with the delegate total McCain has post to this point was a nearly insurmountable task. So now the focus shifts to McCain and Huckabee. McCain seemed as if he were opening a general election campaign with his speech a the CPAC conference. Huckabee meanwhile will continue to have to operate on a shoestring budget in the coming days and begin to wonder if the national party will start putting pressure on him to drop out of the race himself. It will be interesting to see how the media plays the seemingly decided GOP race in the face of the competitive Democratic battle as these contests continue.
Here's the line up for today:
Kansas GOP: Things get under way there at 11am(ET). Kansas should give us the first glimpse at the race post-Romney. The big question is how competitive Huckabee will be now that McCain is transitioning into party unifying mode.
Nebraska Dems: Nebraska Democrats abandoned the longstanding, late May primary in favor of this February 9 caucus for this cycle. The county meetings have staggered start times but the state party's web site claims that results will start coming in around 8:15pm(ET) this evening. As I've made clear over the course of this week's posts, Obama has done well in caucuses, so it will be interesting to see if that streak continues. Turnout is high in at least one precinct.
Washington: Both the Democrats and Republicans begin caucusing at 4pm(ET). The questions in the Evergreen state on both sides are similar to the questions posed above. Is Huckabee in this thing or is he out of his element outside the southeast? For the Democrats, can Clinton reverse the Obama caucus streak. It may be late on the east coast before we have an answer to either question.
Louisiana: The sole primary on the day's calendar closes its polls at 6pm(ET) on the Democratic side and at 9pm(ET) for the GOP. Louisiana is different than the rest of the South demographically, but Huckabee should gain a boost from whatever evangelical presence there is in the state. Likewise, Obama should do well among African Americans and in the state despite the way that Hurricane Katrina disproportionately ravaged that segment of the Pelican state's population. Thirty-two percent of the population was African American during the 2000 census before Katrina hit.
Tomorrow's slate is Maine, Maine and Maine. The Pine Tree state's Democrats have the spotlight all to themselves on Sunday as caucusing goes on across the state throughout the afternoon. And hey, it's a caucus, so Obama should have the advantage, right? Clinton does have the support of the governor (from The Fix):
Maine (Feb. 10 caucus): Although Maine holds a caucus, this is a state where Clinton is putting on a serious effort to win. Former president Bill Clinton will be in Portland tonight and Sen. Clinton will hold a rally in Orono on Saturday. She has the support of Gov. John Baldacci (D) and sees Maine as a chance to break up a potential string of Obama victories on Saturday as well as demonstrate the strength of her support in the Northeast. Women are expected to be a significant portion of the electorate as well, which should work to Clinton's benefit. Obama isn't handing the state over, having sent Rob Hill, who handled the campaign's field efforts in New Hampshire's primary, to Maine just after that state's vote on Jan. 8.Here's more on the candidates' efforts in Maine from The Caucus.
I'll be back later today to look at the results as they begin coming in and discussing the ramifications of the outcomes (...if it isn't too late).
Meanwhile, I'm coming in a couple of days after the fact here, but still find this worth bringing up. Mitt Romney suspended the operations of his campaign on Thursday; ending what looked like the last, best challenge to McCain in the Republican race. And that's no knock on Huckabee. Romney was situated in a similar ideological area as the former Arkansas governor, but had plenty of his own money at his disposal. And money is what will be needed if a serious challenge to McCain were to be made. In the end though the math was just too difficult for Romney to overcome. Without winner-take-all contests dominating the landscape of contests in the next month, the task of catching up with the delegate total McCain has post to this point was a nearly insurmountable task. So now the focus shifts to McCain and Huckabee. McCain seemed as if he were opening a general election campaign with his speech a the CPAC conference. Huckabee meanwhile will continue to have to operate on a shoestring budget in the coming days and begin to wonder if the national party will start putting pressure on him to drop out of the race himself. It will be interesting to see how the media plays the seemingly decided GOP race in the face of the competitive Democratic battle as these contests continue.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Washington State's Double Dip, Polls for the Other February States and Revoting in Florida and Michigan
The dust is still settling on Super Tuesday, but I'm moving on. The story the media is telling now seems to be one of delegate counts and not necessarily one that focuses on the next series of states. Real Clear Politics, for example, doesn't have any polls up for the states that go this weekend and next Tuesday. So, instead of teasing anyone any further (Oh, the things we put in headlines to get people to read.), I'll admit that the polls for those states just aren't out there yet. Even cursory glances at the major newspapers in the states up next reveals nothing. I'm assuming that the Washington Post will have some numbers for the states involved in what they're calling the Potomac Primary eventually. As for the rest time will tell that tale.
Speaking of those other states slated to go over the course of the next week, Washington has put itself in a bit of an interesting situation. Here's what I wrote over the summer:
From the Green Papers:
Washington Democratic contest breakdown
Washington Republican contest breakdown
Completely unrelated to the Washington Double Dip (See, I can coin a phrase too; even if it is one ripped from the classic Seinfeld episode.), The Caucus has a post up today discussing the possibility of Florida and Michigan revoting in Spring caucuses to come into compliance with DNC rules. This is a limited story, but the fact that the idea is out there is interesting. The story up until now has been that the Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is, will ultimately decide to seat those delegates. With this race playing on past Super Tuesday and likely to stretch well into to the Spring though, you've got to think that Florida and Michigan Democrats are wary of a brokered convention. If that scenario were to play out, it would be less likely that Obama would allow for Clinton to push to have those delegates seated against party rules and at his expense. So the longer this race goes on, the more likely it may be that Democrats in Florida and/or Michigan decide to pull the trigger on caucus(es) in their states. Late March and early April are wide open on the calendar of delegate selection events. I think I'm talking myself into this idea. What does everyone else think?
The Obama camp has to like this possibility. He has seen a tad of success so far in caucuses.
Speaking of those other states slated to go over the course of the next week, Washington has put itself in a bit of an interesting situation. Here's what I wrote over the summer:
Washington: A nine member committee (see the press release from the Secretary of State's office) made up of Washington state political leaders made the decision in June to move the state's 2008 presidential primary to February 19. Since that decision was made, the Washington Democratic party opted not to allocate delegates based on the primary and the Republican party will only distribute 51% of the state's delegates to the Republican convention through the contest. So while the state moved the primary from May into February (the same day as the Wisconsin primary), it is a mostly non-binding contest.That last statement may or may not prove to be true. Why? Well, both parties are holding precinct caucuses this weekend (February 9). All of the pledge delegates will be allocated on the Democratic side, but only 49% of the state's Republican delegates will be awarded. So while the Democrats in Washington opted not to use the primary as a means of distributing delegates (And Washington Democrats have a history of eschewing primaries.), the GOP is divvying up their pool of delegates across two contests. The result is that Washington, at least on the Republican side, will be going twice in the time span of ten days. Now, I say that the February 19 primary may prove to be a non-binding affair, but that isn't necessarily true. It will be binding on for the GOP, but John McCain may go and make that argument moot. Given that there are so few states during the time between Super Tuesday and February 19 though, McCain officially wrapping things up may be a bit of a stretch.
From the Green Papers:
Washington Democratic contest breakdown
Washington Republican contest breakdown
Completely unrelated to the Washington Double Dip (See, I can coin a phrase too; even if it is one ripped from the classic Seinfeld episode.), The Caucus has a post up today discussing the possibility of Florida and Michigan revoting in Spring caucuses to come into compliance with DNC rules. This is a limited story, but the fact that the idea is out there is interesting. The story up until now has been that the Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is, will ultimately decide to seat those delegates. With this race playing on past Super Tuesday and likely to stretch well into to the Spring though, you've got to think that Florida and Michigan Democrats are wary of a brokered convention. If that scenario were to play out, it would be less likely that Obama would allow for Clinton to push to have those delegates seated against party rules and at his expense. So the longer this race goes on, the more likely it may be that Democrats in Florida and/or Michigan decide to pull the trigger on caucus(es) in their states. Late March and early April are wide open on the calendar of delegate selection events. I think I'm talking myself into this idea. What does everyone else think?
The Obama camp has to like this possibility. He has seen a tad of success so far in caucuses.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Post-Super Tuesday Impressions
Today I want to focus on strategy from here on.
For the Republicans things are a bit more clear. McCain has a good sized lead in the delegate counts and if you listen to the talking heads, can shore up his support among conservatives by pulling Mike Huckabee into the fold. At least that's what the talking heads keep saying. It makes sense. McCain can't do well with Southern conservatives; Huckabee has proven he can. End of story, right? It's always a game of wait and see with politics.
On the Democratic side there were a few things that popped out at me. First of all, and I talked about this ad nauseam last night during the live blog, Obama does well in caucuses. He swept all of them last night. Even when he lost Nevada to Clinton, he still managed one more delegate than she did. The other issue on the Democratic side is performance versus region. Clinton does better (on the whole) in traditional Democratic areas (West coast and Northeast) and Obama has done well in the South (especially the Deep South) and the heartland--red states. So when Obama says that he can do more than Clinton as nominee to pull in Republicans and Independents, there is some truth to it. Sure these wins in red states are among Democratic partisans, but he can still argue that he has won in red states. What can Clinton say? "I won in New York and California?" Well, the Democrat would win those states anyway.
Given these trends (this model if you will), how do the Democratic candidates stack up in the immediate next contests? This weekend there is a Democratic caucus in Washington and a primary in Louisiana.
Washington represents the confluence of both factors mentioned above, so it is more difficult to peg. First, it is a caucus. Advantage Obama...apparently. Secondly, it is a "traditional" Democratic state. It has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 1988. Advantage Clinton. So Washington is tough.
Louisiana, on the other hand is a Deep South state. Say what you will about how Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana's African American population, this is still a Southern state and one that could break for Obama on Saturday (if we're keeping with the proposed model).
After that (on Tuesday February 12), there are primaries in Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia. Well, those are traditional Democratic, heavily African American and red state respectively. Clinton, Obama, Obama.
This is all speculation (and based on a simple model at that), and could change at the drop of a hat. Things have changed a time or two during this cycle. But it is a first pass at what to look for in the next week.
For the Republicans things are a bit more clear. McCain has a good sized lead in the delegate counts and if you listen to the talking heads, can shore up his support among conservatives by pulling Mike Huckabee into the fold. At least that's what the talking heads keep saying. It makes sense. McCain can't do well with Southern conservatives; Huckabee has proven he can. End of story, right? It's always a game of wait and see with politics.
On the Democratic side there were a few things that popped out at me. First of all, and I talked about this ad nauseam last night during the live blog, Obama does well in caucuses. He swept all of them last night. Even when he lost Nevada to Clinton, he still managed one more delegate than she did. The other issue on the Democratic side is performance versus region. Clinton does better (on the whole) in traditional Democratic areas (West coast and Northeast) and Obama has done well in the South (especially the Deep South) and the heartland--red states. So when Obama says that he can do more than Clinton as nominee to pull in Republicans and Independents, there is some truth to it. Sure these wins in red states are among Democratic partisans, but he can still argue that he has won in red states. What can Clinton say? "I won in New York and California?" Well, the Democrat would win those states anyway.
Given these trends (this model if you will), how do the Democratic candidates stack up in the immediate next contests? This weekend there is a Democratic caucus in Washington and a primary in Louisiana.
Washington represents the confluence of both factors mentioned above, so it is more difficult to peg. First, it is a caucus. Advantage Obama...apparently. Secondly, it is a "traditional" Democratic state. It has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 1988. Advantage Clinton. So Washington is tough.
Louisiana, on the other hand is a Deep South state. Say what you will about how Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana's African American population, this is still a Southern state and one that could break for Obama on Saturday (if we're keeping with the proposed model).
After that (on Tuesday February 12), there are primaries in Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia. Well, those are traditional Democratic, heavily African American and red state respectively. Clinton, Obama, Obama.
This is all speculation (and based on a simple model at that), and could change at the drop of a hat. Things have changed a time or two during this cycle. But it is a first pass at what to look for in the next week.
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