The Boston Globe has a great retrospective look at the Obama campaign's strategy for the first phase of the primary season (Super Tuesday and before) and its focus on growing the grassroots in caucus states. Paul has often said during our discussion group meetings that luck is a part of this game. Often that luck boils down which campaign correctly forecasts how primary season will progress. And the advantages Obama planned for before and took away from Super Tuesday are the root of his lead over Clinton in terms of delegates and the percentage of the popular vote won.
Recent Posts:
7! 7 Votes in Guam!
"We'll know it when we see it."
Kansas' On-Again-Off-Again Presidential Primary
Sunday, May 4, 2008
7! 7 Votes in Guam!
You have to love when the coincidence of politics overlaps with film. In this case, I'm referring to one of the few memorable lines from the largely forgettable Black Sheep. But seriously, seven votes! Florida, eat your heart out. I don't know that the contest in Guam, or the outcome for that matter, moves the needle in the Democratic nomination race heading into Tuesday's contests in North Carolina and Indiana, but it is remarkable how close the final vote tally between Clinton and Obama was (and I don't care that it was out of just more than 5000 votes). The delegates will be split evenly (all four of them), but Obama did pick up an additional superdelegate when one of his supporters was elected Guam's Democratic party vice chair.
Meanwhile, both candidates had an hour each this morning on the Sunday morning talk shows. Obama played the front-runner on the Meet the Press, acting like and assuming he is the Democratic nominee. Clinton, for her part on This Week, did the same. There has been a stink raised over her appearance on a show hosted by a former member of her husband's administration, George Stephanopoulos. Both she and Stephanopoulous have mentioned and made light of the relationship during the show, but I don't know that she has enjoyed an easier road than Obama got from Tim Russert. On the topic of Florida and Michigan and the rules regarding the DNC's treatment of their nominating contests, Clinton said that it wasn't in the rules that Obama should take his name off the ballot in Michigan. That's the first I've heard that argument. I doubt that one's going to fly with the remaining undecided superdelegates (or the voters in the remaining primary states). It doesn't hurt to try, though, I suppose.
On to North Carolina and Indiana!
Recent Posts:
"We'll know it when we see it."
Kansas' On-Again-Off-Again Presidential Primary
The Dakota Effect
Meanwhile, both candidates had an hour each this morning on the Sunday morning talk shows. Obama played the front-runner on the Meet the Press, acting like and assuming he is the Democratic nominee. Clinton, for her part on This Week, did the same. There has been a stink raised over her appearance on a show hosted by a former member of her husband's administration, George Stephanopoulos. Both she and Stephanopoulous have mentioned and made light of the relationship during the show, but I don't know that she has enjoyed an easier road than Obama got from Tim Russert. On the topic of Florida and Michigan and the rules regarding the DNC's treatment of their nominating contests, Clinton said that it wasn't in the rules that Obama should take his name off the ballot in Michigan. That's the first I've heard that argument. I doubt that one's going to fly with the remaining undecided superdelegates (or the voters in the remaining primary states). It doesn't hurt to try, though, I suppose.
On to North Carolina and Indiana!
Recent Posts:
"We'll know it when we see it."
Kansas' On-Again-Off-Again Presidential Primary
The Dakota Effect
Friday, May 2, 2008
"We'll know it when we see it."
Ever mindful of the potential magic numbers, goalposts and other measuring sticks, the Clinton campaign* is now attempting to "undefine" what victory is in the race for the Democratic nomination. Weeks ago, I wrote that 100 was the final delegate deficit for which Clinton was hoping in terms of framing an argument to the late deciding superdelegates. [Of course, if superdelegates are like primary voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas, they may break for Clinton in the end. The news on that front isn't all that rosy for Clinton though.] As the race has changed, though, so too have those markers. The decision-making calculus is relatively straightforward for the superdelegates now. It comes down to delegates, popular vote and states won. And if you want to extend it to general election prospects against McCain you could factor in national polls and state polls/electoral college projections. Obama is ahead in delegates, popular vote and states won, and the Jeremiah Wright flap has not really affected Obama in the national polls and only moderately in the state polls/electoral college (much of that is in states that were already very close and are still close but favoring McCain).
So what does, "We'll know it when we see it," mean? Ultimately it is going to mean that the marker of success in this race for Clinton is no longer on the field of play. That what they "see" is the writing on the wall.
Having said that though, there are two races coming up on Tuesday (and one tomorrow. Hey, eight delegates is eight delegates in this race.). How will the race be affected by the potential outcomes in North Carolina and Indiana?
Obama sweeps: Equals curtains for Clinton. Whether she gets pressure to drop out or not, the superdelegates will begin flocking to Obama at that point.
Obama in NC and Clinton in IN: The status quo result. The Clinton campaign would argue a small margin in North Carolina is a win for her. And one could argue that a win is a win for Obama in the face of the Wright situation. That's a slippery slope though, and is tantamount to saying that it affected the race (Not the message they want to send to the GOP). On the flip side, if Obama matches or surpasses the "expected" barrier (We've called it ten points in the UGA discussion group and I'll adopt it here.), he can make the argument, that despite Wright, he still did well. In Indiana, a win is a win for either candidate. A NC win for Obama and a Clinton win in IN will keep the contest going and push the nomination decision back to after June 3.
Clinton in NC and Obama in IN: This one hasn't really been talked about anywhere and probably is the least likely outcome (even less so than a Clinton sweep). If it were to come to pass though, it would likely send the press off trying to find new story lines. They'll manage. This gives Clinton a win on Obama turf, but would give him a win in a competitive state. I don't know. I'll yield to the comments section on this one. Thoughts?
Clinton sweeps: A Clinton sweep on Tuesday likely would cause a great many superdelegates (both those who are undecided and those who back Obama) to rethink their feelings on the race. With Clinton-friendly West Virginia and Kentucky up next, a sweep would make for a nice little streak of victories for Clinton since Texas-Ohio. Like the both the split decisions above, this outcome keeps the contest going through June 3, but also nudges this race ever closer to Carter-Kennedy territory. And that divisiveness is not where the DNC likely wants to be heading into the general election.
Four possibilities. Three keep the race going and one likely ends it. Which way will it go? If the Real Clear Politics averages today are any indication: Obama takes NC and Clinton wins IN. Those margins, though, would leave a lot of room for interpretation from both campaigns.
*Well, Clinton campaign strategist, Geoff Garin is at least.
Recent Posts:
Kansas' On-Again-Off-Again Presidential Primary
The Dakota Effect
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
So what does, "We'll know it when we see it," mean? Ultimately it is going to mean that the marker of success in this race for Clinton is no longer on the field of play. That what they "see" is the writing on the wall.
Having said that though, there are two races coming up on Tuesday (and one tomorrow. Hey, eight delegates is eight delegates in this race.). How will the race be affected by the potential outcomes in North Carolina and Indiana?
Obama sweeps: Equals curtains for Clinton. Whether she gets pressure to drop out or not, the superdelegates will begin flocking to Obama at that point.
Obama in NC and Clinton in IN: The status quo result. The Clinton campaign would argue a small margin in North Carolina is a win for her. And one could argue that a win is a win for Obama in the face of the Wright situation. That's a slippery slope though, and is tantamount to saying that it affected the race (Not the message they want to send to the GOP). On the flip side, if Obama matches or surpasses the "expected" barrier (We've called it ten points in the UGA discussion group and I'll adopt it here.), he can make the argument, that despite Wright, he still did well. In Indiana, a win is a win for either candidate. A NC win for Obama and a Clinton win in IN will keep the contest going and push the nomination decision back to after June 3.
Clinton in NC and Obama in IN: This one hasn't really been talked about anywhere and probably is the least likely outcome (even less so than a Clinton sweep). If it were to come to pass though, it would likely send the press off trying to find new story lines. They'll manage. This gives Clinton a win on Obama turf, but would give him a win in a competitive state. I don't know. I'll yield to the comments section on this one. Thoughts?
Clinton sweeps: A Clinton sweep on Tuesday likely would cause a great many superdelegates (both those who are undecided and those who back Obama) to rethink their feelings on the race. With Clinton-friendly West Virginia and Kentucky up next, a sweep would make for a nice little streak of victories for Clinton since Texas-Ohio. Like the both the split decisions above, this outcome keeps the contest going through June 3, but also nudges this race ever closer to Carter-Kennedy territory. And that divisiveness is not where the DNC likely wants to be heading into the general election.
Four possibilities. Three keep the race going and one likely ends it. Which way will it go? If the Real Clear Politics averages today are any indication: Obama takes NC and Clinton wins IN. Those margins, though, would leave a lot of room for interpretation from both campaigns.
*Well, Clinton campaign strategist, Geoff Garin is at least.
Recent Posts:
Kansas' On-Again-Off-Again Presidential Primary
The Dakota Effect
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
Kansas' On-Again-Off-Again Presidential Primary
The trials and tribulations of the Kansas state legislature continue in regard to the potential for a presidential primary in the state for 2012. If it wasn't bad enough that the legislature went through the same process during the 2007 legislative session to establish and frontload a presidential primary for 2008, it is now that they have repeated the same steps. The current bill (HB 2683--click link and type the bill number in the "Track Bill" space on the right) was only part of a larger piece of election law legislation that would have required a photo ID to vote (via Ballot Access News)as well. Despite that, the bill passed both houses of the legislature either on its own or as an amendment before heading to a conference committee. That legislation emerged from conference this week and was voted down in the House by a vote of 53-68 after having passed unanimously during the first go 'round. The bill now returns to conference, where the already small chances of a presidential primary for 2012 being established during this session grow slimmer.
After the massive frontloading in the lead up to this cycle, there just aren't that many states that aren't "early" anymore. The momentum of the frontloading trend will slow down for 2012 as a result.
...unless, of course, one or both of the parties shift the window for holding events to an earlier start date. That's the portion of the conventions I'll have my eye on this summer. How will those rules change or will they?
Recent Posts:
The Dakota Effect
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
After the massive frontloading in the lead up to this cycle, there just aren't that many states that aren't "early" anymore. The momentum of the frontloading trend will slow down for 2012 as a result.
...unless, of course, one or both of the parties shift the window for holding events to an earlier start date. That's the portion of the conventions I'll have my eye on this summer. How will those rules change or will they?
Recent Posts:
The Dakota Effect
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
Thursday, May 1, 2008
The Dakota Effect
For those of you from the UGA campaign discussion group who didn't rush home and quickly flip through the pages of the current issue of PS after Bill Chittick brought up the Dakota effect, here is a post on The Monkey Cage on the subject from co-author, Lee Sigelman.
Recent Posts:
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
Recent Posts:
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Obama's Slide: Is Clinton Taking Advantage?
One of the biggest complaints about these maps that I've been producing for over a month now (see right side bar for the links) is that they pull in polling data from way back in February and give each of those polls (recent and long ago) equal weight. And that's a legitimate argument. Clinton supporters (and the detractors of my methodology) have chimed in in the comments sections of some of these posts to argue that Obama's good standing in the polls, post-Super Tuesday and pre-Jeremiah Wright, is propping up his averages, giving the appearance of competitiveness against McCain. My argument for including all the polls from Super Tuesday on has been that that was the point at which this became an even, two-person race for the Democratic nomination. The argument that we should expect some decay in a poll's value as it gets older, though, is still a valid one. I would counter that it is still necessary to include all the data from Super Tuesday forward, but to discount the early polls and weight the more recent ones.
Since there is a range in the number of polls per state (a low of one and a high of 15) there was some variation in the number of polls that were considered recent or dated. The following rules have been adopted to deal with these differences:
To the maps!
In comparing the weighted Obama map to the unweighted one (see link under Recent Posts at the bottom), several things are clear. There is a lot less light blue and purple and much more brown. Many of the states that were leaning toward Obama or were toss ups favoring him moved into the McCain column. Whereas last week's maps showed an even split in the number of toss up states between Obama and McCain, this map has 11 of the 15 total toss ups favoring McCain. As a result, the race between the two in the electoral college has gone from a virtual tie to an 80 electoral vote advantage for McCain (309 to 229) with 174 toss up electoral votes. Among the states where the candidates were either strongly ahead or held a solid lead, Obama led 192 electoral votes to 172. McCain, then, took 137 or those 174 toss up electoral votes.
And Clinton? Her map and the resulting electoral college projections are nearly identical to the unweighted map. There are changes in the map on the margins, but the electoral vote tally is exactly the same (304 to 234 for McCain). That indicates that she has managed to maintain a certain standing against McCain, but that Obama's recent troubles have not changed the perceptions of those polled in regard to her standing against the Arizona senator.
And what of the difference each candidate makes in the various states? Here too, the maps are largely similar. The states shaded on each candidate's map are the same with the weighted data as they were before the transformations to the data were made. The difference is the magnitude of the differences. The Obama map is much lighter now. There are many more yellows and greens now than purples and blues. When the more recent polls are given greater value, the impact Obama had by being the head of the ticket against McCain is erode in relation to Clinton. In other words, the McCain margins between the two are narrower in many of the states. Obama's slide then has pulled him back down to earth; to the point that there really isn't a "dime's worth of difference" between Clinton and himself.
So, now I have appeased the Clinton supporters on their methodological concerns, but probably have both camps agitated with me over how the maps now look. I have argued before that the cloudiness over who the Democratic nominee will be has suppressed some of the support the party's nominee should get given the state of the typical general election indicators (presidential approval and economy). In that regard then, this is something of a worst-case scenario for the Democrats. It does underscore how the divisiveness of the post-Texas/Ohio race has hurt them and makes that much more understandable the calls from the party's elite to decide this thing earlier rather than later.
Related: Obama's Slide Revisited
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
***Please see links to past maps in the right side bar***
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
Since there is a range in the number of polls per state (a low of one and a high of 15) there was some variation in the number of polls that were considered recent or dated. The following rules have been adopted to deal with these differences:
- If there has only been one poll conducted in a state, that is all the information on that state. Those poll numbers are left as they are, neither discounted nor weighted.
- If a state has had two or three polls since Super Tuesday the more recent one was given extra weight while the dated one (or two were) was discounted.
- Any state that had four polls over this period had the two most recent polls weighted while the earliest two polls were discounted.
- Finally, in all the states that had five or more polls the three most recent polls were given added significance while all the other polls were discounted to account for decay over time.
To the maps!
In comparing the weighted Obama map to the unweighted one (see link under Recent Posts at the bottom), several things are clear. There is a lot less light blue and purple and much more brown. Many of the states that were leaning toward Obama or were toss ups favoring him moved into the McCain column. Whereas last week's maps showed an even split in the number of toss up states between Obama and McCain, this map has 11 of the 15 total toss ups favoring McCain. As a result, the race between the two in the electoral college has gone from a virtual tie to an 80 electoral vote advantage for McCain (309 to 229) with 174 toss up electoral votes. Among the states where the candidates were either strongly ahead or held a solid lead, Obama led 192 electoral votes to 172. McCain, then, took 137 or those 174 toss up electoral votes.
And Clinton? Her map and the resulting electoral college projections are nearly identical to the unweighted map. There are changes in the map on the margins, but the electoral vote tally is exactly the same (304 to 234 for McCain). That indicates that she has managed to maintain a certain standing against McCain, but that Obama's recent troubles have not changed the perceptions of those polled in regard to her standing against the Arizona senator.
And what of the difference each candidate makes in the various states? Here too, the maps are largely similar. The states shaded on each candidate's map are the same with the weighted data as they were before the transformations to the data were made. The difference is the magnitude of the differences. The Obama map is much lighter now. There are many more yellows and greens now than purples and blues. When the more recent polls are given greater value, the impact Obama had by being the head of the ticket against McCain is erode in relation to Clinton. In other words, the McCain margins between the two are narrower in many of the states. Obama's slide then has pulled him back down to earth; to the point that there really isn't a "dime's worth of difference" between Clinton and himself.
So, now I have appeased the Clinton supporters on their methodological concerns, but probably have both camps agitated with me over how the maps now look. I have argued before that the cloudiness over who the Democratic nominee will be has suppressed some of the support the party's nominee should get given the state of the typical general election indicators (presidential approval and economy). In that regard then, this is something of a worst-case scenario for the Democrats. It does underscore how the divisiveness of the post-Texas/Ohio race has hurt them and makes that much more understandable the calls from the party's elite to decide this thing earlier rather than later.Related: Obama's Slide Revisited
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
***Please see links to past maps in the right side bar***
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
The Electoral College Maps (4/30/08)
Another Wednesday, another set of electoral college projections. New polls were few and far between this week and only served to confirm the maps from the past several weeks. The eight new polls (from eight states) did little to shake up the McCain-Clinton map, but that has been the more stable match up throughout this series of maps. Only Nevada shifted this week, moving from a toss up favoring McCain to a stronger lean toward the Arizona senator. As such, the electoral vote breakdown is largely the same as it was a week ago. McCain holds a 70 vote advantage over Clinton with 164 toss up electoral votes.
Things in the hypothetical McCain-Obama race are also similar this week compared to last. A new poll in Pennsylvania broke last week's tie between the two, handing McCain a fraction of a point's lead over the junior senator from Illinois. And as we've seen, that puts McCain over 270 electoral votes needed to take the presidency. The only other change (and this will allay the fears of some Democrats who have complained about this one) was that Massachusetts shifted from being a toss up leaning toward Obama to a more solid lean toward him. With those changes, McCain edges Obama 281-260 in the electoral college with 177 toss up electoral votes.
The few changes that did occur this week had no effect on the difference each candidate makes in each of the 50 states. Please refer to last week's McCain margin maps for a refresher on which Democrat does best in what states and how much it matters.
Recent Posts:
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
***Please see the links to past maps in the right side bar.***
Things in the hypothetical McCain-Obama race are also similar this week compared to last. A new poll in Pennsylvania broke last week's tie between the two, handing McCain a fraction of a point's lead over the junior senator from Illinois. And as we've seen, that puts McCain over 270 electoral votes needed to take the presidency. The only other change (and this will allay the fears of some Democrats who have complained about this one) was that Massachusetts shifted from being a toss up leaning toward Obama to a more solid lean toward him. With those changes, McCain edges Obama 281-260 in the electoral college with 177 toss up electoral votes.
The few changes that did occur this week had no effect on the difference each candidate makes in each of the 50 states. Please refer to last week's McCain margin maps for a refresher on which Democrat does best in what states and how much it matters.Recent Posts:
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
***Please see the links to past maps in the right side bar.***
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the North Carolina Primary
After yesterday's look at the playing field for the upcoming primary in Indiana, the focus now shifts toward the Tar Heel state. North Carolina also holds a primary on May 6 and things in the Democratic race are heating up there as they are in Indiana. Polls show Obama with a pretty good lead over Clinton in the state and the Real Clear Politics average (see link) has only dropped slightly following Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania last week (15. 5 points before to 12.6 points now). In the interim the North Carolina GOP has publicized and aired a TV ad featuring both Obama and his pastor, Jeremiah Wright, in an attack on the two main Democrats vying for the state's Democratic gubernatorial nomination (both of whom have endorsed Obama). Will those numbers continue to trend downward for Obama with Clinton picking up the endorsement of Democratic governor, Mike Easley today.
The primary in North Carolina is a modified, open primary that allows independents to vote but prohibits Republicans from participating. There is evidence of party switching among registered Republicans in the lead up to the primary, but with a competitive gubernatorial primary on the GOP side, one has to wonder whether those are sincere switches or Republicans seeking to throw a monkeywrench in the Democratic contest. It seems less likely that these are Rush Limbaugh voters with the presence of a GOP primary for governor because the Republicans in the state must be energized to take back the governor's mansion after 16 years out of it.
At stake are 77 delegates allocated to the winner of each of the state's 13 congressional districts and another 38 based on the statewide results (source: The Green Papers). The number of congressional district delegates varies from a low of 4 in more Republican districts (6 of the 13 districts are held by Republicans) to a high of nine in the more heavily Democratic districts. The split in which candidate gets what number of delegates from a district depends on the following rules:
The delegate distributions:
1st District (Northeast corner, bordering Virginia/6 delegates): This Democratic-controlled district is 50% African American and contains the East Carolina University community. Both bode well for Obama despite this being a rural and agricultural district as does the endorsement of Rep. G.K. Butterfield.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-4
2nd District (East Central, surrounding the Raleigh area/6 delegates): This is another of the Democratic districts in the Tar Heel state. It stretches from south of the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area and around the to the east northeast of the state capital. The 2nd is 30% black and has all or part of several of the military bases in the state. Obama could flirt with the 58% barrier here, but this one is likely a split.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
3rd District (Coastal North and Outer Banks/4 delegates): The 3rd has been represented by Republican, Walter Jones for the past seven terms and has a far smaller black population than the previous two districts. The third also has a military presence and could be an area where Clinton could find some support.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
4th District (Research Triangle Park area, Durham, Chapel Hill/9 delegates): The 4th is the most heavily Democratic district in the state, is very young (only 8% over 65) and holds Research Triangle Park, the University of North Carolina and Duke University. It is also one-fifth African American. In other words, the state's big delegate prize favors Obama. But by how much? The endorsement of Rep. David Price won't hurt Obama either.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-6
5th District (Northwest, bordering Virginia/5 delegates): This Republican district stretches westward into the Appalachian Mountains from Winston-Salem and is only 7% black. It does have the area in and around Appalachian State University, but looks to favor Clinton. She won the bordering area in Virginia during Obama's convincing win there in mid-February.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
6th District (Piedmont, West of RTP/5 delegates): Similar to the 5th, the 6th is safely Republican and has a black population that only comprises a tenth of the total population. The good news for Clinton is that it is another district with 5 delegates at stake, so the delegate distribution won't be even. She could do well here but won't pass 70% to get anything more than a one delegate advantage out of it.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
7th District (Coastal Southeast, Wilmington/6 delegates): A solid coalition of African Americans and blue collar workers has kept Democratic congressman, Mike McIntyre safely in office since 1996. Those groups are at odds if this district trends the way the rest of the nation has in the states that have held delegate selection events thus far.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
8th District (South Piedmont, East of Charlotte/5 delegates): The 8th is one of just 15 districts that CQ rates as "No Clear Favorite" in the congressional race that will take place this fall. What does that mean for this Democratic presidential primary, though? Three in ten in the district are black and nearly a third have a blue collar background. As in the 7th, and nationwide for that matter, those groups are at odds. The tiebreaker could come from the exurban Charlotte population. Obama has done well in and around urban centers and that could give him enough support to manage a win and the one delegate advantage coming out of this five delegate district.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-3
9th District (South Piedmont, South and West of Charlotte/6 delegates): The ninth is my hometown district and has been represented by Republican and former-Charlotte mayor, Sue Myrick, for so long that calling her the former Charlotte mayor is outdated. This is a district that cedes much of the area's African American populace to the neighboring, majority-minority 12th district. The result is a district that is less black and more blue collar among the Democratic electorate. There is some exurban Charlotte development in the Gastonia area, but not enough to offset Clinton's strength.
The Score: Clinton-4, Obama-2
10th District (Western, foothills/5 delegates): Like the 9th, the 10th district is less than a tenth black and holds a significant number of blue collar workers. It should grant Clinton a comfortable margin, but not enough to emerge with more than a one delegate advantage.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
11th District (Western tip of the state, Asheville/6 delegates): This westernmost district is only 5% black and nearly a third blue collar, but the Asheville area offsets those Clinton advantages with a highly educated population.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
12th District (I-85 district, running from Charlotte to Greensboro/7 delegates): The 12th is the most controversial district in the state because it is always the one challenged in courts after the post-census redrawing of the lines. If ever Elbridge Gerry had a salamander, this would have been it. Snaking along I-85 from Gastonia through Charlotte to the Winston-Salem and Greenboro areas, the 12th has a black population approaching 50%. That will comprise a significant portion of the Democratic primary electorate. Mel Watt, the district's representative, has endorsed Obama as well.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-5
13th District (Northern Piedmont, bordering Virginia/7 delegates): This district runs along the border area of Virginia where Obama did well in his victory there. It also includes areas of Raleigh and Greensboro that cobble together a significant white collar population and a black community that makes up over one quarter of the district's population. This district could go for Obama but not by as much as in the 12th.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-4
Total Score: Clinton-36, Obama-41
A five delegate advantage in the districts combined with a ten point win (21 of the 38 statewide delegates) would give Obama a nine delegate advantage overall in North Carolina. If the projections from Indiana and North Carolina hold, then both candidates would emerged with one win apiece on May 6. No, that doesn't account for the expectations game. Obama is "supposed" to win North Carolina and the 10 point margin used above is the line he probably needs to clear in order for that to remain a "win" for him in the state. That scenario pushes the game into the next week when West Virginia (Clinton territory) holds its primary.
Recent Posts:
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
Back to the Original "Too Early" Sanction
The primary in North Carolina is a modified, open primary that allows independents to vote but prohibits Republicans from participating. There is evidence of party switching among registered Republicans in the lead up to the primary, but with a competitive gubernatorial primary on the GOP side, one has to wonder whether those are sincere switches or Republicans seeking to throw a monkeywrench in the Democratic contest. It seems less likely that these are Rush Limbaugh voters with the presence of a GOP primary for governor because the Republicans in the state must be energized to take back the governor's mansion after 16 years out of it.
At stake are 77 delegates allocated to the winner of each of the state's 13 congressional districts and another 38 based on the statewide results (source: The Green Papers). The number of congressional district delegates varies from a low of 4 in more Republican districts (6 of the 13 districts are held by Republicans) to a high of nine in the more heavily Democratic districts. The split in which candidate gets what number of delegates from a district depends on the following rules:
The delegate distributions:
- Those districts with four delegates will split two to two (delegates to each candidate) unless one candidate clears 62.5% of the vote in that district for a three to one advantage.
- The districts with five delegates will split three to two in favor of the winner unless the winner of the district surpasses 70% of the vote for a four to one edge.
- The districts with six delegates will split the delegates evenly unless the winning candidate in such a district garners more than 58.33% of the vote for a four to two lead. 75% would be necessary to win a five to one delegate advantage coming out of a six delegate district.
- The districts with seven delegates will divide those delegates 4 to 3, in favor of the winner, unless the winner receives more than 64.29% of the vote in that district. The winner would take home a five to two delegate advantage from that district in that case.
- The district with nine delegates will split those delegates 5 to 4 unless the winner surpasses 61% of the vote in the district, giving the winner a six to three edge. 72% of the vote is necessary to give the winner a 7 to 2 lead.
1st District (Northeast corner, bordering Virginia/6 delegates): This Democratic-controlled district is 50% African American and contains the East Carolina University community. Both bode well for Obama despite this being a rural and agricultural district as does the endorsement of Rep. G.K. Butterfield.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-4
2nd District (East Central, surrounding the Raleigh area/6 delegates): This is another of the Democratic districts in the Tar Heel state. It stretches from south of the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area and around the to the east northeast of the state capital. The 2nd is 30% black and has all or part of several of the military bases in the state. Obama could flirt with the 58% barrier here, but this one is likely a split.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
3rd District (Coastal North and Outer Banks/4 delegates): The 3rd has been represented by Republican, Walter Jones for the past seven terms and has a far smaller black population than the previous two districts. The third also has a military presence and could be an area where Clinton could find some support.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
4th District (Research Triangle Park area, Durham, Chapel Hill/9 delegates): The 4th is the most heavily Democratic district in the state, is very young (only 8% over 65) and holds Research Triangle Park, the University of North Carolina and Duke University. It is also one-fifth African American. In other words, the state's big delegate prize favors Obama. But by how much? The endorsement of Rep. David Price won't hurt Obama either.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-6
5th District (Northwest, bordering Virginia/5 delegates): This Republican district stretches westward into the Appalachian Mountains from Winston-Salem and is only 7% black. It does have the area in and around Appalachian State University, but looks to favor Clinton. She won the bordering area in Virginia during Obama's convincing win there in mid-February.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
6th District (Piedmont, West of RTP/5 delegates): Similar to the 5th, the 6th is safely Republican and has a black population that only comprises a tenth of the total population. The good news for Clinton is that it is another district with 5 delegates at stake, so the delegate distribution won't be even. She could do well here but won't pass 70% to get anything more than a one delegate advantage out of it.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
7th District (Coastal Southeast, Wilmington/6 delegates): A solid coalition of African Americans and blue collar workers has kept Democratic congressman, Mike McIntyre safely in office since 1996. Those groups are at odds if this district trends the way the rest of the nation has in the states that have held delegate selection events thus far.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
8th District (South Piedmont, East of Charlotte/5 delegates): The 8th is one of just 15 districts that CQ rates as "No Clear Favorite" in the congressional race that will take place this fall. What does that mean for this Democratic presidential primary, though? Three in ten in the district are black and nearly a third have a blue collar background. As in the 7th, and nationwide for that matter, those groups are at odds. The tiebreaker could come from the exurban Charlotte population. Obama has done well in and around urban centers and that could give him enough support to manage a win and the one delegate advantage coming out of this five delegate district.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-3
9th District (South Piedmont, South and West of Charlotte/6 delegates): The ninth is my hometown district and has been represented by Republican and former-Charlotte mayor, Sue Myrick, for so long that calling her the former Charlotte mayor is outdated. This is a district that cedes much of the area's African American populace to the neighboring, majority-minority 12th district. The result is a district that is less black and more blue collar among the Democratic electorate. There is some exurban Charlotte development in the Gastonia area, but not enough to offset Clinton's strength.
The Score: Clinton-4, Obama-2
10th District (Western, foothills/5 delegates): Like the 9th, the 10th district is less than a tenth black and holds a significant number of blue collar workers. It should grant Clinton a comfortable margin, but not enough to emerge with more than a one delegate advantage.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
11th District (Western tip of the state, Asheville/6 delegates): This westernmost district is only 5% black and nearly a third blue collar, but the Asheville area offsets those Clinton advantages with a highly educated population.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
12th District (I-85 district, running from Charlotte to Greensboro/7 delegates): The 12th is the most controversial district in the state because it is always the one challenged in courts after the post-census redrawing of the lines. If ever Elbridge Gerry had a salamander, this would have been it. Snaking along I-85 from Gastonia through Charlotte to the Winston-Salem and Greenboro areas, the 12th has a black population approaching 50%. That will comprise a significant portion of the Democratic primary electorate. Mel Watt, the district's representative, has endorsed Obama as well.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-5
13th District (Northern Piedmont, bordering Virginia/7 delegates): This district runs along the border area of Virginia where Obama did well in his victory there. It also includes areas of Raleigh and Greensboro that cobble together a significant white collar population and a black community that makes up over one quarter of the district's population. This district could go for Obama but not by as much as in the 12th.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-4
Total Score: Clinton-36, Obama-41
A five delegate advantage in the districts combined with a ten point win (21 of the 38 statewide delegates) would give Obama a nine delegate advantage overall in North Carolina. If the projections from Indiana and North Carolina hold, then both candidates would emerged with one win apiece on May 6. No, that doesn't account for the expectations game. Obama is "supposed" to win North Carolina and the 10 point margin used above is the line he probably needs to clear in order for that to remain a "win" for him in the state. That scenario pushes the game into the next week when West Virginia (Clinton territory) holds its primary.
Recent Posts:
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
Back to the Original "Too Early" Sanction
Monday, April 28, 2008
The State of the Race: Counting Delegates in the Indiana Primary
Well, Pennsylvania is out of the way. Guam is done. Oh wait. Guam is this weekend! But if the loyal Guamanian readers of FHQ don't mind, I'm going to skip ahead for a look at the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina. I'll look at the rules in each state and the state of the game on the congressional district level. Indiana is up today and North Carolina will get a more thorough examination tomorrow.
The Hoosier state will hold an open primary with 85 delegates at stake in the May 6 contest. 47 of those delegates will be allocated based on the outcome of the race in each of the state's nine congressional districts with 25 others coming from the statewide results (source: The Green Papers). Of those nine districts, five are held by Democrats. Those five districts have six delegates apiece while three of the four Republican held districts have four delegates each. The sixth district has five delegates on the line.
The delegate distributions:
So how does this race break down on the district level? In other words, in what districts are we likely to see anything other than an even (or near even) split of the delegates?
1st District (Northwest, along the border with Illinois/6 delegates): This is the district that we often hear referred to as a place where Obama is almost a native son. It is certainly in the footprint of the Chicago media. The district is 18% black, 13% over 65 and 31% blue collar. The 1st has been held since 1984 by Democrat, Peter Visclosky. The Chicago connection and the higher percentage of blacks in the district could prove a good combination for Obama to offset a fairly high population of blue collar workers.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-4
2nd District (North Central, borders Michigan/6 delegates): The district is 8% black, 13% over 65 and 35% blue collar. This Democratic district is less black than the 1st and has a higher percentage of blue collars; a good recipe for the Clinton campaign. However, Notre Dame is in the district and could prove a neutralizer for Obama.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
3rd District (Northeast, borders Michigan and Ohio/4 delegates): The district is 6% black, 11% over 65 and 36% blue collar. Slightly less black than the 1st and the 2nd and among the most heavily blue collar districts in the state, the 3rd could be a possible two delegate margin district for Clinton. It also borders on two states she has won already (though Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan). Despite that, it will be tough for any candidate to clear 62.5% in a Republican-controlled, four delegate district.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
4th District (Central, West of Indianapolis/4 delegates): The district is 1% black, 11% over 65 and 30% blue collar. This Republican district has a balance of strengths between Clinton and Obama. Clinton will have a pretty solid blue collar presence here, but Obama will have the Purdue University community to lean on and keep Clinton under 62.5% there.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
5th District (Central, East Northeast of Indianapolis/4 delegates): The district is 3% black, 11% over 65 and 25% blue collar. It is also a Republican district, but has a smaller blue collar presence. 30% blue collar seems to be a dividing line of sorts between these districts and this one falls below that point for Clinton to take anything more than an even split in delegates away from this district.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
6th District (East Central, borders Ohio/5 delegates): This Republican-held district borders an area of Ohio that Clinton swept in the March 4 primary there. The district is 4% black, 14% over 65 and 36% blue collar and with an odd number of delegates, the junior senator from New York will come away from the 6th with a one delegate edge.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
7th District (Indianapolis/6 delegates): The lone district where a Democratic member of Congress from Indiana has endorsed one of the two Democratic contenders. Andre Carson has given the nod to Obama and represents a district that is 29% black, 11% over 65 and 26% blue collar. Other than the 1st, this is the only district where Obama can hope to gain a couple of delegates on Clinton.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-4
8th District (Southwest corner, bordering Illinois/6 delegates): Democrat Brad Ellsworth represents the 8th district. He came in with the Democratic wave in 2006. The district is 4% black, 14% over 65 and 33% blue collar. This is a district bordering Illinois, but one that favors Clinton demographically. That's enough of a balance to keep a likely win there for Clinton under 58%.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
9th District (Southeast corner, bordering Kentucky/6 delegates): Like the 8th, this district saw Baron Hill swept into office in the Democratic surge of 2006. It is 2% black, 12% over 65 and 35% blue collar. Home to Indiana University, the 9th also has nearly a quarter of its population with some form of higher education degree.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
Total Score: Clinton-22, Obama-25
Obama, then, has a slight edge in this Indiana delegate projection, based on enough African American support in a couple of districts, friendly territory along the Illinois border and some well placed university communities that help offset the blue collar percentages in some districts. Clinton, however, could win the statewide vote and eke out a slim delegate victory. And with the popular vote argument she's been making since Pennsylvania, she would stand to gain on Obama in that count in Indiana. She would need to offset Obama's strength in the 1st and the 7th with a number of steady, if unremarkable in terms of delegates, victories in the other districts to win statewide. And that isn't out of the question. Regardless, it looks tight in the Hoosier state.
CQ gives a slight edge to Clinton in Indiana (24 delegates-23). If anything this confirms what the polls in the state are saying: it will be close.
I'll be back tomorrow with a look at North Carolina.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
Back to the Original "Too Early" Sanction
Jeremiah Wright to Sit Down with Bill Moyers (Friday, April 25)
The Hoosier state will hold an open primary with 85 delegates at stake in the May 6 contest. 47 of those delegates will be allocated based on the outcome of the race in each of the state's nine congressional districts with 25 others coming from the statewide results (source: The Green Papers). Of those nine districts, five are held by Democrats. Those five districts have six delegates apiece while three of the four Republican held districts have four delegates each. The sixth district has five delegates on the line.
The delegate distributions:
- Those districts with four delegates will split two to two (delegates to each candidate) unless one candidate clears 62.5% of the vote in that district for a three to one advantage.
- The district with five delegates will split three to two in favor of the winner unless the winner of the district surpasses 70% of the vote for a four to one edge.
- The districts with six delegates will split the delegates evenly unless the winning candidate in such a district garners more than 58.33% of the vote for a four to two lead. 75% would be necessary to win a five to one delegate advantage coming out of a six delegate district.
So how does this race break down on the district level? In other words, in what districts are we likely to see anything other than an even (or near even) split of the delegates?
1st District (Northwest, along the border with Illinois/6 delegates): This is the district that we often hear referred to as a place where Obama is almost a native son. It is certainly in the footprint of the Chicago media. The district is 18% black, 13% over 65 and 31% blue collar. The 1st has been held since 1984 by Democrat, Peter Visclosky. The Chicago connection and the higher percentage of blacks in the district could prove a good combination for Obama to offset a fairly high population of blue collar workers.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-4
2nd District (North Central, borders Michigan/6 delegates): The district is 8% black, 13% over 65 and 35% blue collar. This Democratic district is less black than the 1st and has a higher percentage of blue collars; a good recipe for the Clinton campaign. However, Notre Dame is in the district and could prove a neutralizer for Obama.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
3rd District (Northeast, borders Michigan and Ohio/4 delegates): The district is 6% black, 11% over 65 and 36% blue collar. Slightly less black than the 1st and the 2nd and among the most heavily blue collar districts in the state, the 3rd could be a possible two delegate margin district for Clinton. It also borders on two states she has won already (though Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan). Despite that, it will be tough for any candidate to clear 62.5% in a Republican-controlled, four delegate district.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
4th District (Central, West of Indianapolis/4 delegates): The district is 1% black, 11% over 65 and 30% blue collar. This Republican district has a balance of strengths between Clinton and Obama. Clinton will have a pretty solid blue collar presence here, but Obama will have the Purdue University community to lean on and keep Clinton under 62.5% there.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
5th District (Central, East Northeast of Indianapolis/4 delegates): The district is 3% black, 11% over 65 and 25% blue collar. It is also a Republican district, but has a smaller blue collar presence. 30% blue collar seems to be a dividing line of sorts between these districts and this one falls below that point for Clinton to take anything more than an even split in delegates away from this district.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-2
6th District (East Central, borders Ohio/5 delegates): This Republican-held district borders an area of Ohio that Clinton swept in the March 4 primary there. The district is 4% black, 14% over 65 and 36% blue collar and with an odd number of delegates, the junior senator from New York will come away from the 6th with a one delegate edge.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-2
7th District (Indianapolis/6 delegates): The lone district where a Democratic member of Congress from Indiana has endorsed one of the two Democratic contenders. Andre Carson has given the nod to Obama and represents a district that is 29% black, 11% over 65 and 26% blue collar. Other than the 1st, this is the only district where Obama can hope to gain a couple of delegates on Clinton.
The Score: Clinton-2, Obama-4
8th District (Southwest corner, bordering Illinois/6 delegates): Democrat Brad Ellsworth represents the 8th district. He came in with the Democratic wave in 2006. The district is 4% black, 14% over 65 and 33% blue collar. This is a district bordering Illinois, but one that favors Clinton demographically. That's enough of a balance to keep a likely win there for Clinton under 58%.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
9th District (Southeast corner, bordering Kentucky/6 delegates): Like the 8th, this district saw Baron Hill swept into office in the Democratic surge of 2006. It is 2% black, 12% over 65 and 35% blue collar. Home to Indiana University, the 9th also has nearly a quarter of its population with some form of higher education degree.
The Score: Clinton-3, Obama-3
Total Score: Clinton-22, Obama-25
Obama, then, has a slight edge in this Indiana delegate projection, based on enough African American support in a couple of districts, friendly territory along the Illinois border and some well placed university communities that help offset the blue collar percentages in some districts. Clinton, however, could win the statewide vote and eke out a slim delegate victory. And with the popular vote argument she's been making since Pennsylvania, she would stand to gain on Obama in that count in Indiana. She would need to offset Obama's strength in the 1st and the 7th with a number of steady, if unremarkable in terms of delegates, victories in the other districts to win statewide. And that isn't out of the question. Regardless, it looks tight in the Hoosier state.
CQ gives a slight edge to Clinton in Indiana (24 delegates-23). If anything this confirms what the polls in the state are saying: it will be close.
I'll be back tomorrow with a look at North Carolina.
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
Back to the Original "Too Early" Sanction
Jeremiah Wright to Sit Down with Bill Moyers (Friday, April 25)
Saturday, April 26, 2008
The Electoral College Maps (4/23/08)
Another week and another set of new state head-to-head general election polls. This week (4/17--4/23/08) had twenty new polls in eighteen states. Once again, however, is significant amount of new data failed to shift much in the electoral college outcomes between both Clinton and Obama against McCain. New this week is the addition of toss ups by candidate. Since this endeavor was initiated at the end of March, the modus operandi here at FHQ has been to lump all the toss up states, no matter who they favored, into one catch-all category. And let's face it, that is less than transparent, though probably slightly more so than the Clinton campaign's estimation procedure for tabulating the popular vote during this primary season. With the addition, the Democratic toss ups remain purple (it goes better with the blue) while McCain toss ups are shaded in brown (No, that doesn't really go with the red and the orange, but my map utility doesn't include pink.).
What's new this week, then? Well, not much. Clinton continues to inch closer in terms of her McCain margin versus Obama's, but it has yet to effectively alter the electoral college maps in any way. One thing that continues to grow is the number of toss up states in both hypothetical races pitting the two Democrats against McCain.
The McCain-Obama map remains virtually the same. Kansas switched from being a lean to McCain to the Strong McCain category. The next state over moving west, Colorado also moved from being an Obama lean to being a toss up favoring the Illinois senator. Not including those toss ups, Obama maintains a 190 to 159 electoral vote advantage over McCain with 189 electoral votes from 16 toss up states. Pennsylvania had no new polls this week (at least not on Real Clear Politics) and remains a tie with those 21 electoral votes serving as vital to either Obama (260) or McCain (257) surpassing the 270 electoral votes need to win.
The states in and degree to which Obama's "McCain margins" are the same as they were a week ago. Only New York, which was a tie (in McCain margin) between Clinton and Obama last week has changed; moving onto the Clinton map after having been on Obama's all April. That isn't too much of a surprise given that Clinton hails from the state. However, the difference isn't consequential as New York is firmly planted in the strong Democratic category no matter which candidate becomes the party's nominee.
For Clinton, the map is similar to the past maps for a possible McCain-Clinton general election match up. Excluding the toss up states in that hypothetical race indicates a relatively close race. McCain leads Clinton by a margin of 207 to 164 with 167 electoral votes in 14 states.* When those toss up states' electoral votes are allocated, however, Clinton trails by the same 304 to 234 margin she did in last week's projections. She drew closer (and changed categories) in three states. Iowa shifted from Strong McCain to a McCain leans while both Oregon and New Mexico moved from being McCain leans to toss ups favoring McCain.
Clinton's strength in McCain margin still remains centered on just thirty percent of the states. She has added New York (as was already mentioned) and has increased her advantage over Obama against McCain in Missouri and Kentucky (though Kentucky is not a state that is on the table as competitive in the fall).
What does all this mean? With the new differentiation between toss up states, I'd like to spend a bit of time analyzing what we see there. In other words, what does each candidate bring to the table in each of these races in terms of toss up states? There is some overlap between what the toss up states are no matter who the Democratic nominee is, but what states does each candidate (McCain included) bring to these two races?
McCain-Obama
In the hypothetical match up between McCain and Obama there are 16 toss up states that are evenly distributed between the two candidates. Obama has an advantage in eight of those states (70 electoral votes) while McCain holds a lead in seven of the remaining eight (98 electoral votes). Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes are still up in the air.
What toss up states are unique to this match up though? Obama brings eight toss up states into play that Clinton does not. Those states (CO, NE, NC, ND, SC, SD, TX and VA) account for 90 electoral votes. For his part, McCain only brings one state into the toss up category that is not in play against Clinton: Massachusetts (12 electoral votes).
McCain-Clinton
The potential race between the senior senator from Arizona and the junior senator from New York, as was mentioned in the original electoral college post, looks similar to the electoral college maps from the last couple of presidential cycles. Of those 14, Clinton leads in five states (70 electoral votes) and McCain in the other nine (97 electoral votes).
Clinton pulls Florida and Missouri (38 total electoral votes) into play that are currently outside of the toss up category for Obama. McCain carries more weight against Clinton than he does against Obama though (at least in terms of toss up states). Five states (HI, MN, OR, WA and WI) amounting to 42 electoral votes are not on the table in the McCain-Obama race but are in the McCain-Clinton race.
Of the 23 states that are in the toss up categories across both potential general election races, eight of them are there because of Obama's presence in the race. McCain brings a total of six (one against Obama and five against Clinton) while Clinton only manages to bring two states into the toss up category that are not already there or are already favoring Obama. [The remaining seven toss up states overlap between the two possible races.] Remember, though, that this does not include states like Iowa, which favors Obama but gives McCain an edge against Clinton, or Arkansas, which strongly favors Clinton but goes for McCain against Obama.
*It is interesting to note that the total number of toss up electoral votes is within 3 electoral votes of each of the Democrats' (either Clinton's or Obama's) totals when the toss ups are excluded. Clinton has 164 electoral votes from her strong and leaning categories while there are 167 total toss up electoral votes. For Obama, there are 189 toss up electoral votes between himself and McCain and 190 electoral votes from states that fall into either the Strong Obama or Obama lean categories. I have no idea what that means, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Recent Posts:
Back to the Original "Too Early" Sanction
Jeremiah Wright to Sit Down with Bill Moyers (Friday, April 25)
Do Campaigns Matter? A Reflection on the Results in Pennsylvania
Also, for a look at past electoral college projection maps, see the links in the side bar on the right side of the page (under the map).
What's new this week, then? Well, not much. Clinton continues to inch closer in terms of her McCain margin versus Obama's, but it has yet to effectively alter the electoral college maps in any way. One thing that continues to grow is the number of toss up states in both hypothetical races pitting the two Democrats against McCain.
The McCain-Obama map remains virtually the same. Kansas switched from being a lean to McCain to the Strong McCain category. The next state over moving west, Colorado also moved from being an Obama lean to being a toss up favoring the Illinois senator. Not including those toss ups, Obama maintains a 190 to 159 electoral vote advantage over McCain with 189 electoral votes from 16 toss up states. Pennsylvania had no new polls this week (at least not on Real Clear Politics) and remains a tie with those 21 electoral votes serving as vital to either Obama (260) or McCain (257) surpassing the 270 electoral votes need to win.
The states in and degree to which Obama's "McCain margins" are the same as they were a week ago. Only New York, which was a tie (in McCain margin) between Clinton and Obama last week has changed; moving onto the Clinton map after having been on Obama's all April. That isn't too much of a surprise given that Clinton hails from the state. However, the difference isn't consequential as New York is firmly planted in the strong Democratic category no matter which candidate becomes the party's nominee.
For Clinton, the map is similar to the past maps for a possible McCain-Clinton general election match up. Excluding the toss up states in that hypothetical race indicates a relatively close race. McCain leads Clinton by a margin of 207 to 164 with 167 electoral votes in 14 states.* When those toss up states' electoral votes are allocated, however, Clinton trails by the same 304 to 234 margin she did in last week's projections. She drew closer (and changed categories) in three states. Iowa shifted from Strong McCain to a McCain leans while both Oregon and New Mexico moved from being McCain leans to toss ups favoring McCain.Clinton's strength in McCain margin still remains centered on just thirty percent of the states. She has added New York (as was already mentioned) and has increased her advantage over Obama against McCain in Missouri and Kentucky (though Kentucky is not a state that is on the table as competitive in the fall).
What does all this mean? With the new differentiation between toss up states, I'd like to spend a bit of time analyzing what we see there. In other words, what does each candidate bring to the table in each of these races in terms of toss up states? There is some overlap between what the toss up states are no matter who the Democratic nominee is, but what states does each candidate (McCain included) bring to these two races?McCain-Obama
In the hypothetical match up between McCain and Obama there are 16 toss up states that are evenly distributed between the two candidates. Obama has an advantage in eight of those states (70 electoral votes) while McCain holds a lead in seven of the remaining eight (98 electoral votes). Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes are still up in the air.
What toss up states are unique to this match up though? Obama brings eight toss up states into play that Clinton does not. Those states (CO, NE, NC, ND, SC, SD, TX and VA) account for 90 electoral votes. For his part, McCain only brings one state into the toss up category that is not in play against Clinton: Massachusetts (12 electoral votes).
McCain-Clinton
The potential race between the senior senator from Arizona and the junior senator from New York, as was mentioned in the original electoral college post, looks similar to the electoral college maps from the last couple of presidential cycles. Of those 14, Clinton leads in five states (70 electoral votes) and McCain in the other nine (97 electoral votes).
Clinton pulls Florida and Missouri (38 total electoral votes) into play that are currently outside of the toss up category for Obama. McCain carries more weight against Clinton than he does against Obama though (at least in terms of toss up states). Five states (HI, MN, OR, WA and WI) amounting to 42 electoral votes are not on the table in the McCain-Obama race but are in the McCain-Clinton race.
Of the 23 states that are in the toss up categories across both potential general election races, eight of them are there because of Obama's presence in the race. McCain brings a total of six (one against Obama and five against Clinton) while Clinton only manages to bring two states into the toss up category that are not already there or are already favoring Obama. [The remaining seven toss up states overlap between the two possible races.] Remember, though, that this does not include states like Iowa, which favors Obama but gives McCain an edge against Clinton, or Arkansas, which strongly favors Clinton but goes for McCain against Obama.
*It is interesting to note that the total number of toss up electoral votes is within 3 electoral votes of each of the Democrats' (either Clinton's or Obama's) totals when the toss ups are excluded. Clinton has 164 electoral votes from her strong and leaning categories while there are 167 total toss up electoral votes. For Obama, there are 189 toss up electoral votes between himself and McCain and 190 electoral votes from states that fall into either the Strong Obama or Obama lean categories. I have no idea what that means, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Recent Posts:
Back to the Original "Too Early" Sanction
Jeremiah Wright to Sit Down with Bill Moyers (Friday, April 25)
Do Campaigns Matter? A Reflection on the Results in Pennsylvania
Also, for a look at past electoral college projection maps, see the links in the side bar on the right side of the page (under the map).
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