The Electoral College Spectrum

The graphic that has come to be referred to as the Electoral College Spectrum has been a work in progress since FHQ added it to the bi-weekly electoral college posts a couple of weeks ago. The names of the various parts of the table and other suggestions have been incorporated to give us what we now have below. What started out as a simple graphic has since become more intricate, but (I hope) without detracting from its aesthetic value.

The Electoral College Spectrum
HI-4 (7)*	WA-11 (165)	NH-4 (252/290)	FL-27 (381/184)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	PA-21** (273/286)	AK-3 (157)	ID-4 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	SC-8 (154)	NE-5 (54)
MD-10 (24)	NJ-15 (193)	OH-20 (298/260)	SD-3 (146)	WY-3 (49)
IL-21 (45)	OR-7 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	AR-6 (46)
CT-7 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	TN-11 (40)
NY-31 (83)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (325/224)	MS-6 (94)	KY-8 (29)
CA-55 (138)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (328/213)	WV-5 (88)	AL-9 (21)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (339/210)	AZ-10 (83)	UT-5 (12)
MA-12 (154)	CO-9 (248/299)	NC-15 (354/199)	LA-9 (73)	OK-7 (7)
*The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. **Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

So what do all these numbers mean?

Well, let's treat this post as a "How to" on reading the Electoral College Spectrum.

1) Each state is ranked from the most Democratic (upper left corner) to the most Republican (bottom right corner) based on FHQ's weighted average of the polls in each state. The background color for each state corresponds to the color you'll see the map two times each week. Though DC is not shown, it is assumed to be ranked above Hawaii as the most Democratic "state." On the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma is the most Republican state.

2) The Partisan Line: The point at which states with averages favoring Obama transition to states more favorable to McCain is referred to as the Partisan Line. In other words, this is the line between the least Democratic (light blue) state and the least Republican (pink) state according to our averages.

3) The Victory Line: The state where each of the candidates passes over or would pass over the 270 electoral vote threshold is called the Victory Line. At the moment Pennsylvania represents the victory line. If the states electoral votes are tallied sequentially based on their weighted averages, Obama would cross that barrier by adding Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes to the 252 electoral votes the states ranked from DC to New Hampshire sum to. Likewise, if McCain won all the states in shades of red, he would net 240 electoral votes. If you continued to add states -- Obama states -- to his total, the Arizona senator would need to pick off Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania (in order based on their ranking) to crack 270 electoral votes.

It is assumed that the states fall in line behind their respective candidates sequentially based on their averages. However, FHQ is not blind to the idea that other combinations of states could help each of the candidates reach 270 electoral votes. That explains the presence of the other numbers.

4) The number to the right of each state's postal abbreviation is that state's number of electoral votes.

5) The numbers in the parentheses below each state and its number of electoral votes is the tally of electoral votes for each candidate through that state. If Obama won just the states in dark blue -- the Illinois senator's strong states -- he would have 175 electoral votes to his credit. If McCain won both his strong (dark red) and lean (red) states he would net 157 electoral votes. You'll also notice an extra number in each of the toss up state categories. The number on the left is the number of electoral votes Obama would have if he won all the states up to and including that state. The number on the right -- in bold and italicized -- is McCain's total of electoral votes including that state.

Together these numbers help us to visualize other potential combinations of states that would be necessary to get to 270 electoral votes. As was discussed in the comments to yesterday's electoral college projection, McCain could cede Nevada to Obama and win by pulling Ohio and Pennsylvania (41 electoral votes) or Ohio and Michigan (37 EVs) to his side. He could also pull even with Obama in the electoral college by swinging Ohio and Colorado (29 EVs) or Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire (29 EVs).

The Electoral College Spectrum, then, gives us a glimpse into not only the ordering of the states but also an idea of which states are most likely to be swung from one side to the other, or more to the point, which states should be targetted by each of the campaigns.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/10/08)

On VP Announcement Timing and Graphic Naming -- Some Housekeeping

What Would Happen If...

The Electoral College Map (8/10/08)

After this past week's look into the hypothetical, let's return to the non-truncated version of state trial-heat polls data and glance at the electoral college outlook. Despite eleven new polls out in 9 states, little changed in FHQ's projections of how the electoral college would breakdown.

New Polls (Aug. 6-9)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+13
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	+16/+15
Michigan	Rasmussen	+4/+7
Missouri	Rasmussen	+6/+7
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+10/+8
New York	Quinnipiac	+21
New York	Rasmussen	+19/+20
Oregon	Survey USA	+3
Washington	Rasmussen	+12/+12
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	+7/+4
Wisconsin	Wisconsin Policy Research Institute	+6

It is difficult to say definitively whether this set of polling is more favorable to McCain or Obama, but what we can discern is that, on the whole, they maintain the status quo in FHQ's weighted averages. If, for the sake of parsimony, we focus on this data and count the Rasmussen polls "with leaners," none of these state polls break more than three points from our average with the exceptions of Alabama and Oregon. It is odd though that both polls echo the previous polls in those states by the same firms. Capital Survey Research Center's late June poll in Alabama showed the same 13 point McCain advantage that it does now. Likewise, the Oregon poll from Survey USA has the exact same 3 point Obama edge that the firm's mid-June poll in the Beaver state had. In both cases the polls show significantly smaller margins than the combination of other polls show. Other than the Zogby poll in June (11 point McCain lead) and the June poll from Rasmussen, no Alabama poll has had a margin less than 18 points since February. In Oregon, no poll other than Survey USA has shown the state to be any closer than eight points since late March. These two polls then are out of the ordinary compared to most of the other polls from both states while at the same time being consistent with past polls conducted within the last two months in these states by the same firms.

Of the remaining states where polling data has been released since Wednesday, Michigan and Missouri are also of note given that the pair of states is within the toss up category. In Missouri, the polling results have been erratic since mid-May, but still comes out closer to McCain than Obama currently. Of the ten polls since that point, six have favored McCain and the other four have given the edge to Obama. May is also the month to note in Michigan polling as well. The three polls released in the Wolverine state in May all showed McCain ahead by small margins. Once the calendar turned to June (and Obama claimed the Democratic nomination), the polling margins moved in Obama's direction. The Illinois senator's bounce there peaked in late June and early July before a series of polls showed a tighter race there (yet one that still favors Obama). Incidentally, Michigan has been blue since just after Obama wrapped up the nomination. Based mostly on those May polls showing McCain ahead, Michigan had moved into and stayed in the red (during the span of FHQ electoral college projections from April 30 through June 11). Long story short, Michigan is a toss up state that favors Obama while Missouri is a toss up state that favors McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With no changes to the map, the underlying 298-240 electoral college tally remains static. Obama maintains that 58 electoral vote advantage based in large part on the number of electoral votes in states in which he holds a solid advantage over McCain. As I mentioned in the hypothetical look at what our averages would be by including just polls conducted since June, this is not unlike the delegate advantage that Obama held over Clinton following his post-Super Tuesday sweep of contests during February. That provided him with the cushion necessary to effectively win the nomination. Are we looking at a similar scenario here? We cannot definitively say, but that 81 electoral vote advantage in "strong" states is the difference at the moment. How the toss up states break will have a great deal to say about who ultimately wins this election, but if those states are divided approximately evenly between both McCain and Obama, then it looks as if Obama will likly have enough electoral votes to claim victory.

The Electoral College Spectrum
HI-4	WA-11	NH-4	FL-27	KS-6
VT-3	MN-10	PA-21*	AK-3	ID-4
RI-4	DE-3	NV-5	SC-8	NE-5
MD-10	NJ-15	OH-20	SD-3	WY-3
IL-21	OR-7	VA-13	TX-34	AR-6
CT-7	IA-7	ND-3	GA-15	TN-11
NY-31	WI-10	IN-11	MS-6	KY-8
CA-55	NM-5	MT-3	WV-5	AL-9
ME-4	MI-17	MO-11	AZ-10	UT-5
MA-12	CO-9	NC-15	LA-9	OK-7
* Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That state is referred to as the victory line.

Having said that, though, our Electoral College Spectrum (states ranked from most pro-Obama to most pro-McCain) still shows a two state spread between the partisan line and the victory line (where the candidates pass or would pass the 270 electoral vote threshold) with the latter just within the blue states that signify Obama advantages. McCain, given the current FHQ averages, has the least amount of work to do in Ohio and Nevada to swing those states in his direction. Given the current trends, Colorado and/or Michigan are likely to supplant Pennsylvania as the victory line state. Since June, only Rasmussen has shown anything less than a 7 point margin in the Keystone state, while Colorado and Michigan have had, on average, tighter margins during the same period. Regardless of the victory line, McCain's best bets for switches are the six toss up states in light blue.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Turning our attention the the Watch List (states most likely to switch categories), Nevada and Ohio remain the only two states among those six that are at all close to moving into the red. And while McCain can play offense in those two states, the Arizona senator likely has to play defense in Virginia to prevent Obama from picking off the Old Dominion. Of the remaining states on the list, only Florida and New Mexico are bordering on coming into play.

One thing to keep an eye on as we head into the new week is how the Olympics will affect the frequency of polling. Will the polling firms opt to scale back their polling operations while at least some of America's (a majority?) attention is shifted to the games in Beijing? We've had bursts of polling recently, but there still appears to be a general underlying trend of about 20 polls every week. If there is a drop below that line over the course of the next two weeks, we'll likely have an easy answer to this question. If there isn't a drop, good for us. More polls.


Recent Posts:
On VP Announcement Timing and Graphic Naming -- Some Housekeeping

What Would Happen If...

The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)

On VP Announcement Timing and Graphic Naming -- Some Housekeeping

There are a couple of unresolved issues that I've been meaning to address but haven't found the time to do so this week.

1) Graphic Naming
I promised that I'd put the names for the new electoral college graphic up for a vote, but in true democratic fashion have tentative adopted a name -- the victory line -- for the state where 270 electoral votes are achieved. This seems strange without exhibit A, so here it is:

The Electoral College State Rankings
HI-4	MA-12	NH-4	FL-27	KS-6
VT-3	MN-10	PA-21*	AK-3	ID-4
RI-4	DE-3	NV-5	SC-8	NE-5
MD-10	OR-7	OH-20	SD-3	WY-3
IL-21	NJ-15	VA-13	TX-34	AR-6
CT-7	IA-7	ND-3	GA-15	TN-11
NY-31	WI-10	IN-11	MS-6	KY-8
CA-55	NM-5	MT-3	WV-5	AL-9
ME-4	MI-17	MO-11	AZ-10	UT-5
WA-11	CO-9	NC-15	LA-9	OK-7
* Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election.

There are a couple of things at stake here: the name of the graphic in its totality and the name of the state in yellow. The latter has been discussed a bit more than the former, but here are the choices so far for each:

The Graphic Choices:
a) Electoral College State Rankings
b) Electoral College Spectrum
c) ??????

The Yellow State:
a) The Cutting Edge
b) The Breaking Point (Yeah, I'll include this because I've been using it out of habit lately.)
c) The Finish Line
d) Checkers
e) The Victory Line
f) ??????

The comments section is open for voting and further suggestions. I think I'll cut this off at 5p this afternoon and make a decision then. If there are additional names suggested that catch my fancy, I'll put them in above in an update.

2) VP Announcement Timing
Last week's post and subsequent comments discussion had readers speculating on when Obama would announce his vice presidential selection. Here's where that ended up:

Allen: Aug. 14-19
Josh: Aug. 4-5
Rob: Aug. 5-7
Scott: Aug. 7

Mean Date: Aug. 8-9
Median Date: Aug. 6-7

Allen pretty much nailed this one, saying that Obama would vacation first and then name his selection. I'm still moderately surprised that the Obama campaign didn't move prior to the Olympics (He's still got a few hours before the opening ceremonies are televised on tape delay here though. Online video coverage doesn't kick off until 6:30p EST and then it is mostly just badminton, shooting and handball. I'm not saying Obama's going to announce within that window. I'm just saying.). Had I (and Scott and Rob) bought into the momentum of Obama's VP red herrings the last two weeks? No, not the increased chatter among the chattering class, but that it had combined with fairly specific speculation --centered on one person each time -- and a timing constraint represented by the games in Beijing. Last week it was Tim Kaine. This week it was Evan Bayh.

I'm still less concerned with who the choices are on either side than I am with how these things are being timed. So, now that we know Obama's choice likely won't come this week, when does everyone think these choices will be made...now? Allen has won phase one and is owed several rounds of drinks because of it. There are now 19 days between today and when the vice presidential selection speaks at the Democratic convention on August 27. When will Obama move on this and why is that time optimal? Feel free to weigh in in the comments section.


Recent Posts:
What Would Happen If...

The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)

Did Obama or McCain Win July?

What Would Happen If...

...FHQ dropped some of the older state polls that may not be as reflective of the current (or if not current, recent) situation in the presidential race?

I've been asked several times by folks commenting here at FHQ and colleagues here at UGA if I had any plans to phase out any of the Super Tuesday period polls. My standard answer has been no, but once we hit the conventions and get past Labor Day, the traditional general election campaign will get underway and the dynamics of the race will likely change as well. I would expect increased polling and greater total attention from the public/electorate. Whether the latter means "better" responses from survey respondents is up for debate, but in any event we will likely have more representative polling emerging in September, vis a vis the vote in November, than we would with the polls that came out in February or March. Am I permanently dropping those polls from these analyses? No, this is simply a speculative look at how the landscape would appear in their absence.

Fine, what are you dropping then? This, as it turns out, was not an easy decision, though, it may look that way once I've explained. Some electoral college projections use just the most recent poll or the most recent several polls (two or three). In the case of FiveThirtyEight.com, they have used a decay function (a half life equation) to gradually phase out older polls. This is perhaps a good middle ground approach, but I don't want to be accused of aping what is being done over there. Despite that, I looked into where that cut off was on average. In most states, the oldest poll used ranges from mid-April to early May. I considered doing a similar cut off, but opted instead to cut things off at the beginning of the general election campaign, which I placed at the beginning of June. Yeah, Clinton wasn't officially out until June 3-7, but the Rules and Bylaws Committee's decision all but sealed her fate on the final day of May with their Florida/Michigan ruling.

The point here is to accomplish a couple of things. For starters, removing past and potentially inaccurate (at least outdated) polling may prove beneficial. Secondly, this removes the Clinton factor from the equation by focusing on polls conducted just during the general election race. The main criticism I'll get for this is that it is going to skew things in the favor of Obama because the polling cut off point sets the beginning at a point that encompasses his "bounce" during June.

Well, we've set the rules, so how does the map look? I should note now that this is not an official FHQ update of its electoral college analysis (Actually, the color scheme of the map is different so as to serve as a preventative measure on that front. Democratic blues will now be shades of purple and Republican reds will be altered to shades of orange.). This is merely speculative, but at the same time is something of a trial balloon. As I said, the dynamics of the race will change following the conventions, and I plan on officially revisiting our methodology at that time to see if there need to be any changes made. The method used here may be that change, if there is one, or it may not. With that said, to the map!

[Click Map to Enlarge]

If we compare this map to the most recent electoral college map I posted just yesterday, you'll see that there are twelve states that change categories (ie: from McCain lean to strong McCain) and a third of those change sides from Republican to Democratic or vice versa. The result is that Obama has a net gain of 22 electoral votes. Indiana, Montana and Virginia (27 electoral votes) move into Obama's column while Nevada (5 electoral votes) switches to favoring McCain. When each candidate's prospective electoral votes are broken down into categories, the distribution isn't all that different from before. The strong Obama category still holds -- by a large margin -- the most electoral votes, but lean (74D - 81R) and toss up (56D - 64R) electoral vote tallies are largely the same across the two parties.

Looking at the individual states, we see that Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania move out of the toss up distinction and become more solid for Obama. The movement of those 42 electoral votes is as important as the movement of those formerly Republican toss ups to the Democratic side. Aside from the states that switch from one partisan side to the other, these three states moving further into Obama's side are among the most important shifts. This is a good point to look at this in terms of the rankings we started doing here a few electoral college posts ago. The first thing to note is that Ohio is the new (and this is the last time this will be in quotation marks) "victory line." The Buckeye state is state where each candidate passes (or would pass) the 270 electoral vote threshold to claim victory in the election. The partisan line -- where the states shift from being Democratic to being Republican -- has now, with just the state polls from June on, been pushed further away from the victory line. That is indicative of the gains Obama makes when the cut off point for the polls is shifted. One additional thing to note about the victory line is that Ohio is the first toss up state for Obama. In other words, Obama is nearly to 270 electoral votes with just his lean and strong states. He needs just one of those toss up states to surpass that barrier (with the exception of Montana which would put him just three votes short). Colorado, Indiana or Virginia could be substituted for Ohio if the Buckeye state and the other three toss ups slipped into McCain territory.

The Electoral College State Rankings
HI-4	WA-11	NH-4	ND-3	TN-11
VT-3	MN-10	OH-20*	SD-3	KY-8
RI-4	NJ-15	CO-9	AK-3	WY-3
MD-10	WI-10	VA-13	GA-15	LA-9
NY-31	DE-3	MT-3	TX-34	AL-9
MA-12	OR-7	IN-11	WV-5	ID-4
CT-7	PA-21	NV-5	SC-8	KS-6
CA-55	NM-5	FL-27	AR-6	NE-5
ME-4	IA-7	MO-11	AZ-10	OK-7
IL-21	MI-17	NC-15	MS-6	UT-5
*Ohio is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election.

As I've said, this is, for the time being, simply a glimpse into what things would look like if I decided to drop some of these "older" polls. The shift has been overwhelmingly toward Obama, but as we head into August this alternate version of reality will be something to keep tabs on. Does a shift toward McCain or away from Obama move the needle any more in this than it would in the normal version? The polling between now and the Democratic convention will help us to answer that question not to mention give us an idea of whether a change in methodology is even prudent. I will be keeping up with this now that I have the infrastructure in place, so that it will be an easier transition should we opt to go in that direction following the conventions (and their bounces).


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)

Did Obama or McCain Win July?

About Those Rules: What Obama's New Florida/Michigan Stance Means for 2012 and Beyond

The Electoral College Map (8/6/08)

The latter half of the week has been the time for releasing polling recently. That has made the last two Wednesday electoral college posts pretty skimpy though. Still, there were 9 new polls out in 7 states since Sunday. Of those seven states, four were already McCain states that became even more so with the addition of these polls. Arizona had been drifting away from its home state senator and nearly into "McCain lean" territory, but two new polls there provided him with some added cushion that moved the state more firmly into the red.

New Polls (Aug. 3-6)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Alabama	Rasmussen	+20/+18
Arizona	Rasmussen	+19/+16
Arizona	Public Policy Polling	+12
Connecticut	Rasmussen	+13/+15
Florida	Public Policy Polling	+3
Florida	Survey USA	+6
Massachusetts	Suffolk	+9
Oklahoma	Oklahoma Poll	+32
Washington	Elway	+12

Florida, after moving toward Obama in recent polling has shown a resurgence of support for McCain since August began. The Sunshine state is still considered a toss up here even when those August polls are included. However, only one out of four Florida polls in July favored McCain, but the two polls out so far this month have favored McCain.

In the blue states where new polling results were released, the news was mixed. Connecticut and Washington are still comfortably blue for Obama. Massachusetts is still a solid Obama state as well, but a single digit lead in the latest Suffolk poll (down 14 points since the firm last polled the Bay state in late June) was an eye-opening result out of a states that is a typically dependable Democratic state. FHQ sees Massachusetts similar to the way it viewed Arizona when it was on the Watch List (see below). It may be trending in a direction contrary to where you might expect, given the circumstances, but ultimately voters will pull the lever for the candidate of the party they have supported in recent cycles.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Despite the new polling, though, nothing changed as far as the outlook in the electoral college is concerned. Obama maintains 298-240 electoral vote advantage. Things did change in the rankings though. Pennsylvania remains the breaking point where each candidate passes (or would pass) the 270 electoral vote total necessary to claim the White House, but the states where polling has been released since Sunday generally moved in McCain's direction. Oklahoma suplants Utah as the reddest state and the remaining red states moved further into the red as well. Of the three blue states represented, Connecticut held its position while Massachusetts and Washington switched places. So, even though there was movement toward McCain, it didn't particularly help in terms of shifting any "blue state" electoral votes his way. In the case of Florida, though, the good news for McCain is that while it is still a toss up, it is now moving in his direction at least. That is a valuable 27 electoral votes the Arizona senator likely would not want to relinquish.

The Electoral College State Rankings
HI-4	MA-12	NH-4	FL-27	KS-6
VT-3	MN-10	PA-21*	AK-3	ID-4
RI-4	DE-3	NV-5	SC-8	NE-5
MD-10	OR-7	OH-20	SD-3	WY-3
IL-21	NJ-15	VA-13	TX-34	AR-6
CT-7	IA-7	ND-3	GA-15	TN-11
NY-31	WI-10	IN-11	MS-6	KY-8
CA-55	NM-5	MT-3	WV-5	AL-9
ME-4	MI-17	MO-11	AZ-10	UT-5
WA-11	CO-9	NC-15	LA-9	OK-7
* Pennsylvania is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election.

The new polling out of Arizona pulls the Grand Canyon state off the Watch List, and was replaced by the addition of Florida and Massachusetts. McCain likely will not win Massachusetts (and I doubt he is putting much effort in in the Bay state), but protecting his position relative to Obama in Florida is an important piece of his electoral college equation. On that, Florida's reappearance on the Watch List (as potentially shifting from a toss up favoring McCain to a more comfortable McCain lean) is certainly welcome news.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Massachusetts	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
Did Obama or McCain Win July?

About Those Rules: What Obama's New Florida/Michigan Stance Means for 2012 and Beyond

The Electoral College Map (8/3/08)

Did Obama or McCain Win July?

***I said I'd have this up yesterday, but Blogger wasn't for some strange reason allowing the uploading of images during the latter half of the day and I didn't want to post this without the maps. It gave me a chance to incorporate the last of the July polls that were released yesterday anyway. There will likely be some other July stragglers that emerge well into August, but I'll add them to a revised edition in the post for August. The June revisions are at the conclusion of this post. Thanks, and sorry for the delay.

June, it seems, was an Obama month. The Illinois senator both wrapped up the nomination and showed improvement in the polls, with few exceptions, across the map. The dynamic changed in July, however. Whereas McCain only had a handful of states trend in his direction in June, July was with a yellow (pro-McCain) tint. 24 of the 39 states in which polling was conducted in July pushed FHQ's weighted averages toward the Arizona senator.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

By contrast Obama's June dominance gave way to a July map where his trendlines decreased in 21 of the 39 states where he gained a month earlier. Certainly the inclusion of the Zogby numbers in June inflates Obama's end of June averages, and in many cases, the Zogby polls were the last polls conducted in those states and were thus given the most weight. Any subsequent move toward McCain in July could then really have an effect on the the changes to the average, making what may have been a small change to McCain a big change. Even when the Zogby numbers are completely removed from the equation, McCain still countered Obama's June increases by pulling closer or extending his lead in 20 states (as opposed to 24). The omission of the Zogby data translated into trendlines reversing in Obama's direction in six states (AR, MI, MO, NM, OR and VA) and toward McCain in two others (NH and NJ). In other words, in nearly a quarter of the states where Zogby conducted an interactive poll in June (8 of 34), those polls affected the direction in which FHQ's weighted average was going.

The Illinois senator did manage to increase his standing in 15 states (or 19 if the Zogby data is excluded -- a number much closer to the number of states in which McCain gained in the absence of those polls) overall in July. Let's take a moment to look at the states deemed toss ups as of Sunday in FHQ's weighted average. Of those 13 states, 12 had at least one poll conducted in July. Of those twelve, half moved in Obama's direction (FL, MT, NV, NC, ND and PA) and two shifted toward McCain (CO and OH). The remaining four (MI, MO, NH and VA) were among the group of states that shifted directions based on whether the Zogby data was used. Michigan, Missouri and Virginia trended toward McCain in July with the Zogby data included, but reversed course in the absence of that data, shifting in Obama's direction. New Hampshire had the exact opposite effect: favoring Obama with the Zogby data, but away from him in their absence.

Now, the Zogby data is actually included in FHQ's average, so we'll discuss these toss ups in that light. [I have to add the distinction, though, in the interest of transparency.] As such, these swing states, where these trends are of the most consequence, are evenly distributed between the two candidates (6 to 6). However, three of Obama's seven gains and four of McCain's are states that are currently favoring the other candidate in the overall average, albeit slightly. Sure that's the nature of a toss up state, but still, that's an interesting bit of information to take away from this. Obama leads in Colorado, Michigan and Ohio, but during July those three states shifted toward McCain. Likewise, McCain holds an advantage over Obama in Florida, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota, but is witnessing the Illinois senator gaining on him in those four states. If those seven states completed the switch to the other candidate Obama would net a gain of 2 electoral votes in the electoral college, stretching his advantage to 300-238 (McCain states: FL+MT+NC+ND=48 EVs, Obama states: CO+MI+OH=46 EVs).

State Shift Rankings (July)*
MT-3	WA-11	MO-11	OR-7	AR-6
SD-3	NV-15	MI-17	AK-3	ID-4
FL-27	GA-15	VA-13	NM-5	KS-6
ND-3	NJ-15	CO-9	AZ-10	ME-4
IA-7	NC-15	MN-10	LA-9	SC-8
WI-10	NH-4	OH-20	NE-5	IL-21
PA-21	TX-34	AL-9	CA-55	OK-7
KY-8	CT-7	NY-31	MS-6
* The states are ranked from biggest shift toward Obama to the biggest shift toward McCain. The darker the shade (of yellow or green) the bigger the shift during July.

Well, that's all well and good, but there is one additional caveat we need to make, isn't there? What about those Rasmussen "leaners"? Did using the "with leaners" or "without leaners" data make any difference in how the July map looks above? Below are the July polls from Rasmussen since the "with leaners" distinction was added to the firm's polling press releases (up to and including the polls that came out just yesterday -- AL, AZ and CT):

Rasmussen Polls Since w/Leaners Distinction was Added (7/9/08)*
State	Date	w/o Leaners	w/Leaners	Change	Undecideds Drop
Missouri	7/7	+5	+5	0	-10
New Jersey	7/7	+5	+3	+2	-4
Illinois	7/8	+13	+11	+2	-6**
North Dakota	7/8	0	+1	+1	-7**
Wisconsin	7/8	+13	+10	+3	-6
Louisiana	7/9	+20	+19	+1	-2
South Dakota	7/9	+4	+4	0	-4
Washington	7/9	+9	+8	+1	-6
Iowa	7/10	+10	+10	0	-9
Michigan	7/10	+8	+8	0	-5
Minnesota	7/10	+18	+17	+1	0
Kansas	7/14	+20	+23	+3	-9
North Carolina	7/15	+3	+3	0	-5
Oregon	7/15	+9	+9	0	-5
Nevada	7/16	+2	+2	0	-5
Virginia	7/16	0	+1	+1	-6
Alaska	7/17	+5	+5	0	-7
Arkansas	7/17	+10	+13	+3	-4
Georgia	7/17	+9	+11	+2	+1
Maine	7/17	+10	+8	+2	-2
Colorado	7/21	+7	+3	+4	-13
Ohio	7/21	+6	+10	+4	-7
Florida	7/22	+1	+2	+1	-7
Minnesota	7/22	+12	+13	+1	--***
New Hampshire	7/23	+6	+4	+2	-5
Pennsylvania	7/23	+5	+6	+1	-8
California	7/24	+12	+10	+2	-6
New Mexico	7/24	+5	+6	+1	-6
Nebraska	7/28	+18	+19	+1	-3
Kentucky	7/29	+10	+9	+1	-9
Mississippi	7/29	+11	+12	+1	-2
Montana	7/29	+1	0	+1	-3
Alaska	7/30	+5	+6	+1	--***
Arizona	7/30	+16	+19	+3	-6
Texas	7/30	+9	+8	+1	-9
Alabama	7/31	+18	+20	+2	-9
Connecticut	7/31	+15	+13	+2	-6
Avg. Change				+0.95	-5.7
*The "with leaners" distinction was added to reports that were released beginning on 7/9/08. The date on which these polls were conducted (The ones that these releases were based on) stretches back to 7/7/08. **Rasmussen has only conducted one poll in these states. Therefore, the difference was taken from between the with and without leaner numbers within the same poll in these cases. ***Previous poll had been taken after "with leaners" change had been made. We expect no out of the ordinary drop in the number of undecideds when comparing two "with leaners" interpretations.

The map above uses the "with leaners" data. If, however, we shift and inpute the "without leaners" data, the trends remain the same in 33 of the 35 states in which Rasmussen conducted July polls (post-July 7). Only Colorado and Texas would have taken different courses in the event the "leaners" were withheld. Colorado would have trended toward Obama while Texas would have favored McCain. In Texas that's probably not that big a deal. The Lone Star state is comfortably red currently. In Colorado, though, this is of note simply because the state is a toss up by FHQ's estimation. And while the trend would have changed, the overall average favors Obama regardless.

So who won July? Well, the map looks awfully yellow (pro-McCain), but the Arizona senator's gains are in states where he is already way out in front or too far behind to make much of a difference. The swing states are even allocated in terms of how many are trending toward each of the candidates. And when that sort of analysis is stretched to the lean states -- 11 states -- on both sides, McCain has the averages trending in his direction in only four (AK, NM, OR and SC). Of the 24 states where July polling was favorable to McCain, then, 14 of them were already solidly red. So, while the map is decidedly more yellow than it was a month ago, the Illinois senator is still moving in a positive direction in 12 of the 22 toss up or lean states where polling was done in July.

----
Appendix: June Revisions

One thing you'll notice immediately is that this map is even greener (pro-Obama) than the original map was. This revised version incorporates several polls that were released after I posted the first look at the changes during June. Granted, I posted that on July 1 and Rasmussen released a series of polls during the latter half of that holiday week. Additionally, all those Zogby polls are factored as well, making for an inclusion of around 40 new polls.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Those Zogby polls were seen as favoring Obama, so they tend to have biased the map in the Illinois senator's direction. McCain, for example, had six states that trending toward him in June with the late releases excluded. However, when those are added in, the McCain total drops to four. Missouri, Oregon and South Carolina all flip to Obama, while the Zogby poll in Illinois pulled the average for the Land of Lincoln down. How is it then that the Zogby polls favor Obama, yet his home state is trending against him? Well, Illinois, prior to June, had had only one poll conducted in the state -- a February Survey USA poll that gave Obama a 29 point edge. In other words, Obama pretty much had nowhere to go but down there. And despite the shift, Obama still maintains a strong advantage over McCain in the state. With the inclusion of the additional (late-breaking) polls, Obama's bounce throughout June looks even bigger.


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