The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

Saturday's polls didn't do a whole lot to move the needle, but merely confirmed the pattern that has emerged since the two major parties' conventions came to a close. Mainly, McCain is solidifying his position in traditionally Republican states (like South Dakota), has edged ahead in the closest toss up states (like Nevada) and is making up ground in a handful of Obama states (like Minnesota and Washington). The momentum in the race, then, continues to be behind the Arizona senator.

New Polls (Sept. 13)
State	Poll	Margin
Iowa	Selzer	+12
Minnesota	Survey USA	+2
Nevada	Rasmussen	+3
South Dakota	Rasmussen	+17
Utah	Jones	+38
Washington	Elway	+9

Iowa is a state that could very easily go the route of Minnesota and Washington but has been very steady of late. Strangely, after moving toward McCain in early August prior to the conventions, Iowa has rebounded for Obama in the post-convention period. Nonetheless, those three Obama states above are essentially one and the same as far as their individual weighted averages are concerned.

Changes (Sept. 13)
State	Before	After
South Dakota	McCain lean	Strong McCain

As I said above, nothing is terribly eye-catching in the three red state polls. Utah isn't going anywhere, but South Dakota has followed the path of Alaska, Montana and North Dakota by moving toward McCain since the conventions. The uptick in the support for McCain in the Mount Rushmore state polling has pushed the state's average up above the strong McCain line. And that's the only switch on the map for today. [I know, I've gotten used to the multiple daily changes on the maps over the last week, too.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So while those 3 electoral votes shift into the strong McCain category, the basic distribution of electoral votes remains the same: Obama leads 273-265. What is truly striking is that over the last week the gap in the two candidates' strong category electoral vote totals has been cut in half. Obama had been carrying a nearly 2:1 advantage over McCain during the conventions (165-94 EVs), but that has since dwindled to a narrower gap (154-110) recently. More than anything, this is indicative of the movement among those surprisingly close red states that coalesced behind the McCain-Palin ticket following its full-scale introduction at the GOP convention. But it also shows that some of those states that had been near the line between strong Obama and Obama lean (Minnesota and Washington) have shifted toward McCain into that latter category.

McCain makes up the ground he loses in the strong states by beating Obama out overall in the toss up states. That collection of states, though, is more vulnerable to the shifts of the campaign. With the wind at his back, McCain has an edge, but does that continue if, say, Obama does well in the first debate, effectively shifting the narrative in the process? Maybe, maybe not. The point is that the opinions in those states is far less solidified than in the strong states or the majority of lean states.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	DE-3 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

This idea is borne out in the Electoral College Spectrum as well. Here we see not just the effect of this in terms of the number of electoral votes, but as a tally of the states as well. Due to the number of states that are usually Republican, McCain should expect to break into the third column with a combination of red and/or pink states, but his group of states now stretches up most of that middle column. The result is that Obama's list of toss up states has shrunk in number and in electoral votes. With the momentum going with McCain now, we no longer talk about how far Obama may be able to stretch into McCain territory, but can begin to envision McCain seriously playing offense in Obama territory.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As I pointed out yesterday, most of the states on the Watch List are in a position to move into categories closer to Obama. The Illinois senator would have to alter the dynamics of the race to accomplish that, however. The basic trendline is such that Obama is going to be hard-pressed to shift the narrative of the campaign without the intervention of some outside event. And the debates offer the clearest opportunity for Obama to directly shift things on anything approaching his terms.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

It appears to have been another good day of polling for McCain. Tighter margins in New Jersey and Washington go nicely with yet another switch in Ohio -- this time back into McCain's column. The resulting 273-265 electoral vote tally is the closest it has been since late May and early June.

New Polls (Sept. 12)
State	Poll	Margin
Missouri	Rasmussen	+5
New Jersey	Marist	+3
Ohio	University of Cinncinati	+4
Oklahoma	Rasmussen	+31
Oregon	Hoffman	+7
Washington	Rasmussen	+2

Washington ends up going the way of Minnesota: one more state that had hovered around the ten point mark for most of this cycle, yet has suddenly appeared more competitive. New Jersey just feels like another tease for the Republicans. I could be wrong but this is just what the Garden state did four years ago. Then again, there is a difference between Bush and McCain, at least from the McCain campaign's perspective. The Obama folks may wish to disagree.

Changes (Sept. 12)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
Washington	Strong Obama	Obama lean

And once again Ohio flips back to McCain. Those twenty electoral votes are the ones most up for grabs at this point. Nevada is a close second. However, if you are looking for the state to decide this election, Ohio is looking like it is attempting to reprise its role from 2004. But Florida looked that way too in 2004 before that series of of hurricanes ripped across the state. I'll let our loyal readers decide if that was a decisive factor in Bush's victory there. I will say this, though, it gave Bush an opportunity to look presidential just prior to the election.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So should Obama sit on an eight electoral vote advantage? Or more importantly, will he and his campaign? My guess is no. But just as was the case during the primaries, the campaign is hugely confident in its ground game, and even though money isn't everything, that $10 million dollar response to Palin's speech, indicates that there is still a well that can be tapped from here until election day.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	MN-10 (164)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (175)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SD-3 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (146)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	WV-5 (112)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	AK-3 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	GA-15 (104)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	AZ-10 (89)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

There is a whole lot of different shades of red on the Electoral College Spectrum now, though. With both Ohio and Nevada now pink, Colorado now looks a whole lot more important. I'd still like to see some more polling out of New Hampshire to see the Palin effect there (perceived to be negative among indepedents there), but we could just as easily see Michigan and New Hampshire switch places. And that would really put the pressure on the Obama campaign.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

For the time being, though, Michigan is safe from the Watch List. In fact, though it is a toss up, it is still just more than three points in Obama's favor. Washington stays on but changes positions. Now, instead of being on the line between staying strongly in the Obama column and changing to an Obama lean, the opposite is true. The end result is that most states on the list now are on the line between staying where they are and moving away from McCain -- whether to a less solidly McCain category or a more intensely Obama category. In the current environment though some of those moves just seem very unlikely.


Recent Posts:
Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

Yeah, FHQ has been rather devoted to the electoral college this week. [Well, that and the classes I'm teaching this semester, but that's a different story.] As I've looked at things more and more, I've had a couple of questions about the direction things are actually moving in this race. We have had 46 polls released this week (47 counting the Rasmussen poll of Washington released this morning.) and the overall trend seems to favor McCain -- on both the national and state level. But as I discussed in the map post I put up for today, the biggest shifts are among these states -- traditionally Republican states -- that that have been surprisingly competitive until this post-convention period. There has also been some augmentation of McCain's leads in even some of the ruby red states and some subtle, yet less clear movement in the battleground states.

What does this leave us with, then? Well, even if you hold out the electoral votes from Nevada and Ohio -- two states that are basically tied -- Obama still, even in the midst of this McCain bounce, maintains an advantage over the Arizona senator in the electoral college. Granted, at 273-240, it is a smaller edge and even smaller if we assume that McCain wins both Nevada and Ohio (273-265 EVs). But Obama surpasses 270 in both situations and that's the point. At what point do we (or should we) begin thinking of this current race as similar to the primary race for the Democratic nomination? Similar to the delegate lead he held over Clinton after his February string of victories and subsequently sat on until primary season ended, does Obama simply sit back and play defense in these toss up states that have been favoring him? If we begin thinking of the electoral vote advantages as similar to the delegate advantage, can Obama just simply play defense, leaning on his advantages in the ground game in most of these states (Michigan being the possible exception.) and still win.

Now, this asks us to some extent to suspend our belief that the campaign matters. At the same time, though, we are taking a step back from the micro-level view of the race -- lipstick comments and ABC interviews, etc. -- to take on a more macro- view of where this race is. And with history in the primary campaign as our guide, does Obama reign things in and play defense to ensure a win, however small?

Another question that I've had as more and more polling has emerged this week reverses course from above, focusing on micro-level trends. We have had, as I said above, 46 state polls released this week. Two-thirds of those polls have been conducted in states that are or were toss up states according to our averages at the time the polls were released. But one thing that has stood out is the lack of polling in those "strong" Obama states. Yes, we've had polls from Maine, Maryland and Washington, but there have been twice as many polls released from "strong" McCain states. How much do the large margins in those states feed into the narrative that McCain is surging? Alternatively, are things timed in a way that polling in those "strong" Obama states begins emerging as a potentially stale Palin narrative fades out to be replaced by the next big thing -- an Obama rebound? Or do tighter margins in those states continue to feed the current media narrative?

Now, I've asked more questions here than I've answered, but that's kind of by design. The daily electoral college updates have quashed the variety we've had lately (but so too has the void left by the conventions) and in the process the discussions we've had in the comments section. So what do you think? Is the current state of the general election campaign similar to the primary campaign? Are the states where polling has been released driving the stories in the media? The comments section awaits!

Also, what were everyone's impressions/thoughts on the Palin interview last night?


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/10/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

Well, there wasn't much to look at today. Or, in actuality, we had the biggest one day polling release for this cycle thus far. Altogether, there were 20 new polls out in 13 states and the combined effect was further confirmation of the movement we have witnessed in this first week following convention season. In other words, the campaign since the conventions ended -- "silly season" according to Barack Obama on David Letterman -- has been marked by a decided movement toward John McCain in traditionally Republican states. Traditionally Republican, that is, regardless of whether any state had appeared competitive in the polls up to this point in the race. Alaska, Montana and North Dakota, I'm looking in your direction.

New Polls (Sept. 11)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+20
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+1
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+3
Florida	Quinnipiac	+7
Florida	Insider Advantage	+8
Georgia	Strategic Vision	+13
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+18
Idaho	Rasmussen	+39
Maine	Daily Kos/Research 2000	+14
Michigan	Insider Advantage	+1
Michigan	Rasmussen	+5
Mississippi	Daily Kos/Research 2000	+18
Nevada	Insider Advantage	+1
North Carolina	Civitas	+3
North Carolina	Daily Kos/Reearch 2000	+17
Ohio	Strategic Vision	+4
Ohio	Quinnipiac	+5
Ohio	Insider Advantage	+1
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	+3
Wyoming	Rasmussen	+19

And what we see on that list is that, yeah, states like Georgia and Mississippi -- states that had averages in the single digits over the summer -- now appear to be solidly behind the McCain-Palin ticket. But the shift toward McCain isn't confined to just the typical Republican states; it just hasn't been as pronounced elsewhere. There has been a tightening across many of the Obama toss up states (Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and a subtle lengthening of the margins in some of the other McCain toss up states (Florida and North Carolina).

Changes (Sept. 11)
State	Before	After
Georgia	McCain lean	Strong McCain
Nevada	Tie	Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
Ohio	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama

And after Virgina moved off the Watch List (those states within fraction of a point of changing categories), that left Ohio and Nevada as the two closest states -- those most likely to change hands in the face of new data. Nevada had been tied and with the Insider Advantage poll now gives McCain a very slight advantage at the moment. The Silver state is one that we've waited on for more polling to emerge, but that isn't the case for other toss up states like Ohio. Due to the volume of polling in the Buckeye state and the miniscule nature of the the margin between McCain and Obama there, any new information is likely to swing Ohio in one direction or the other. Just this week we've seen Ohio shift from Obama to McCain and, now with three new polls, back again.

I will say this about both of these states: we may as well color both in white -- to signify a tie -- because that is how close each is right now. Obama's edge in the weighted average for Ohio is at 0.02 points and McCain's advantage in Nevada is 0.15 points. Bascially, each is close enough that any poll favoring either candidate is very likely to move the state from one category to the other. Yesterday I spoke about the beauty of weighting the most recent poll, but this underscores one of the drawbacks. The advantage is that there just isn't the volatility that we see across other electoral college analyses that simply look at the most recent poll(s). That stability exists except in some of the closest states, especially when there isn't a clear pattern to the polling within any one [very] close state. Nevada, at a one point margin, is in line with where we would expect it to be, but the Ohio polls that have been released this week have been erratic, and that's an understatement. Four polls have provided us with a range from +7 for McCain to +5 for Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The shift of Ohio back into Obama's column likely breaks with many of the other current analyses right now, but those 20 electoral votes give Obama a nearly 50 electoral vote advantage is this was how the election went. However, a better way of discussing this may be to pull the 25 electoral votes of Nevada and Ohio combined and look at the total in their absence. That would yield Obama a 273-240 lead, which still keeps the Illinois senator over the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory. So even if the momentum was in McCain's direction -- and it certainly appears that it is -- it doesn't necessarily push the Arizona senator over the top. That momentum, though, would likely manifest itself in the Obama toss up states in some way as well. It just isn't clear given the data we now have whether that would be enough in states like Colorado, Michigan or Pennsylvania.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SD-3 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (146)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	WV-5 (112)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	AK-3 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (333/216)	GA-15 (104)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	FL-27 (360/205)	AZ-10 (89)	OK-7 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

If we shift our focus to the Electoral College Spectrum, we see that North Carolina has shifted into the middle ground on the McCain side of the ledger. Again, this further evidence of the McCain toss up state list contracting. Both Florida and Missouri are not far behind and there has yet to be a post-convention poll released in Indiana to dispute or confirm the Hoosier state's standing as a toss up state. [It worked this morning when I called for some polling in Nevada, so perhaps it will happen again.] The effect this movement has is that the playing field has shifted. Pink states are turning a darker shade and the real battle is taking place among a decreasing number of McCain toss ups and the more stable, yet no less vulnerable, Obama toss up states.

The Obama campaign has to hope that the Palin phenomenon ends soon -- and with the ABC interview airing today and tomorrow it is likely to extend at least into and through the weekend -- whether by their own efforts to brand her or by some type of gaffe on her part. Shifting that narrative and moving beyond that back to the issues is an important, not to mention difficult, task for the Obama campaign. The big question now is when will the media tire of the Palin story? The McCain folks hope around November 5 or so, but the Obama campaign has to hope that 1) its arguments begin having some traction or if not that 2) the media moves on to something else; something that provides the Democrats with an opening that they can exploit. I would imagine that that something would have to come along prior to the debates which get under way two weeks from tomorrow.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Tie	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Let's close with an eye towards which states may move with new polling. Nevada and Ohio are still the two to watch most closely, but that is likely to be the case all the way up to election day. Other than that, given the current environment, Florida and Missouri potentially shifting in to the McCain lean category is of huge consequence. Yet as we've seen here, all Obama really has to do is play defense in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. That would get him to 273 and a win is a win. Obama, then still has more paths to victory, but that victory appears as if it will be a narrow one. The options that have been taken off the table are the blowout paths to victory.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/10/08)

The Links (9/9/08): Advertising Call and Response

The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

Ugh, internet connectivity issues are the worst. [So are blog posts that start off by making excuses.] Sorry for the delay.

Anyway, the polling yesterday was interesting. Again, we saw the continuation of the post-convention trends into which we have settled...for the most part. [There are always exceptions.] Most importantly though, we saw the list of battleground states continue to contract. First, Alaska, then Montana and now North Dakota slipped out of the toss up McCain category and into a safer, and more traditionally Republican, position for McCain. If anything, the Palin selection seems to have taken some of those traditionally red states that have been surprisingly competitive in the trial-heat polls off the board. The biggest convention bounces have been in already Republican states.

And the result is that the electoral map has suddenly taken on a more traditional look. Now it's all about Florida and the typical collection of Midwestern states. Sure, you can add in Colorado and Virginia, but when this election was discussed early on as a "map-changing" election, those saying it had more than two states in mind. The more this election resembles a traditional election, the more that favors the GOP and McCain. First of all, it is an alignment of states under which Republican candidates (read: George W. Bush) have fared well recently. But also, it means that McCain won't have to play defense in states where, traditionally, he wouldn't have to. Now, it may come to pass that some of these states inch back toward competitiveness once the post-convention environment settles down, but I wouldn't necessarily count on that.

New Polls (Sept. 10)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Alaska	Rasmussen	+31
Michigan	CNN	+3
Missouri	CNN	+4
New Hampshire	CNN	+5
New Mexico	Rasmussen	+2
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	+4
North Dakota	Rasmussen	+14
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+2
Virginia	CNN	+6
West Virginia	Blankenship	+5

With that said, the ten new polls out in ten states have once again shaken things up in FHQ's weighted average, something that, as the race progressed through July and August, we just didn't see that much of. There just wasn't that much volatility. New polls would emerge but just did not break enough from the established pattern of polling in most states to make that much of a difference. That has changed now in the wake of the VP selections and conventions.

Changes (Sept. 10)
State	Before	After
Alaska	McCain lean	Strong McCain
New Mexico	Obama lean	Toss Up Obama
North Dakota	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
West Virginia	Strong McCain	McCain lean

That leaves us with a rather long list of changes -- at least comparatively. Alaska, we can understand. The Palin selection has taken the Last Frontier out of the mix. And North Dakota, along with Montana figures in to a similar calculation. Those states, then, are terribly surprising. New Mexico and West Virginia? Those results are worthy of a closer look.

Polling in New Mexico has been similar to what we have witnessed in Ohio: erratic. Now, Ohio has stretched out over an 18 point range from +10 for McCain to +8 for Obama, which on its face, appears to give a slight edge to McCain (...if you were to average those two results in isolation). Indeed, that's what we see on the map below. But New Mexico is not that different. Across all the polling conducted in the Land of Enchantment since Super Tuesday, the results have ranged from +16 for Obama to +6 for McCain. [Just in the last week we've seen a +14 for Obama -- pre-GOP convention -- and a +2 for McCain.] If you apply the same, simplistic methodology from the Ohio example to New Mexico, you find that you end up with a state that is competitive, but favors Obama all the same. True to what we've have seen over the course of the summer, New Mexico appears to be a state that is on the line between a toss up and a state leaning more heavily toward Obama. In each case, though -- in Ohio and New Mexico -- we still have a pretty good picture of what's going on given the existing polling data throughout the race. [As an aside, that's the beauty of not just looking at the most recent poll(s). You have this established idea of how the state is going to break in November. It isn't as volatile, yet it does change if trends are persistent. Our measure, then, is skeptical of change until that shift fundamentally alters the equilibrium in a state.]

West Virginia also offers an eye catching poll. First of all, there's a new poll in West Virginia! There are only a few states (Delaware, Hawaii and Vermont) that have had fewer surveys conducted than the Mountain state. So when we get one, you take notice, if only to see that John McCain is up by a ton...or not. The flip side is that you get a result that is surprising not only for its closeness, but that it is breaking with the trend seen in other similarly Republican states. [And I say that based on the other two presidential elections this decade. In West Virginia, you have a state that has switched from reliably Democratic to reliably Republican on the presidential level. And that shift has been rather rapid.] Granted, what we have here is a piece to a very incomplete puzzle; a 1000 piece job with 600 pieces missing. Still, in the limited polling are privy to, West Virginia is on a trajectory that moves it toward competitiveness. +18 for McCain in February turns into +8 in June and +5 in September. Does that mean the Mountain state is Obama's in November? No, but the fact that West Virginia is moving in a direction counter to other 2004 Republican states is worth noting. And if you're Obama and you're already sinking money into Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, why not throw a little towards neighbor to all three, West Virginia. From an advertising standpoint, you get the northern part of the state by buying time in the Pittsburgh market. But that's only one aspect of it. Given the thrashing Obama took in the late May primary, there's likely less of an Obama field operation in the state which would potentially put him behind in the ground game. Then again, the McCain campaign likely thought it wouldn't have to defend West Virginia and may have to kickstart its own ground game there. We'll have to see. The closeness in this poll will probably trigger additional polling to determine whether this was an outlier or the continuation of a trend toward competitiveness.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

There is some shuffling then, but no electoral votes change sides. I'm not going to belabor the point here because I'd like to spend a bit of time discussing the movement on the Electoral College Spectrum. [And there's been a lot of it this week.] Suffice it to say, Obama still has a lead in the electoral college, but, as I've noted, the number of paths to victory are shrinking. The Kerry states with Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico are all the Illinois senator really needs to break 270, but bringing in Florida or Ohio is not totally out of the question. Nor is losing those two and the two western neighbors above to McCain.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	SD-3 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	TX-34 (146)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	WV-5 (112)	ID-4 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	KY-8 (32)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AK-3 (92)	AL-9 (24)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	MS-6 (89)	OK-7 (15)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (83)	WY-3 (8)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The striking thing about the spectrum is that the list of "safer" McCain states now stretches into the middle column. That 163 electoral votes looks pretty solid for McCain in this current environment. And we can talk about West Virginia all we want, but when you look at it, the Mountain state is way down the rankings for Obama at this point, barely within the bounds of the "lean" distinction. At this point, given the current momentum of the race, the election looks like it is being waged in about eight states; that group from Michigan through Virginia. That is the perception at least. Are those other pink states out of the question for Obama? No, but given the circumstances, those are states that are traditionally Republican. And traditional Republican states seem to be aligning behind McCain-Palin. We have additional polling out from Quinnipiac this morning in Ohio and Florida that could change things (tune in tonight to see how that affects things), but getting additional information out of Indiana and Nevada will help us to get a better idea of what is happening in the 2004 Bush states. If they continue the trend, then that solidifies the impression that those states are moving away from Obama and the the battle is over the eight states I referenced above.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Tie	to Toss Up McCain/Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

This round of polling adds few more states to the Watch List. So, after bottoming out over the weekend -- likely due in part to the lack of polling during the conventions -- the shake ups on the electoral map have augmented the list. New Mexico is now a toss up but continues to hover around the line between the toss up and lean categories. Like Montana, North Dakota is gone, but not necessarily forgotten in terms of being competitive. More polling is warranted in both cases for the foreseeable future. Virginia becomes the latest state to slip off the list, though. The CNN poll pushed it off the Watch List and into a firm, yet not unreachable, McCain toss up state. The list of states on the Watch that could change sides imminently has now dropped to two: Ohio and Nevada. And we have a new poll out in Ohio today. Now, where are those Nevada polls?


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Now here's the bounce for McCain. But the question I posed yesterday was, how is the post-convention bounce distributed across states? Among the battleground states that had polling released yesterday and today, not so much. Among traditionally red states like Montana and North Carolina, however, the bounce appears to be quite significant. With eight new polls out today, we're starting get a clearer picture of the state of play in the race for the White House at this point in time.

New Polls (Sept. 9)
State	Poll	Margin (With Leaners/ Without Leaners)
Florida	Public Policy Polling	+5
Maryland	Gonzales	+14
Oklahoma	Survey USA	+33
Michigan	Strategic Vision	+1
Montana	Rasmussen	+11
New Jersey	Fairleigh-Dickinson	+6
North Carolina	Survey USA	+20
Wisconsin	Strategic Vision	+3

But why does Montana shift categories and North Carolina doesn't? Good question. And it has to do with the number of polls conducted since Super Tuesday in each state. North Carolina has nearly eclipsed the 30 poll mark while Montana has had just a handful of surveys done. The result is a small N problem. The state with fewer polls is more susceptible to outliers than the state where the average is more established. That is why Montana jumped North Carolina, trading in toss up pink for McCain lean red in the process. Even though that 20 point margin is larger than the margin in Montana, it is an extreme outlier among the other polls in the Tar Heel state. There has not been a double digit margin in either direction in the state since all the way back in February. North Carolina may end up a McCain state in November, but this poll is out of step with the host of polls conducted thus far in the state.

Changes (Sept. 9)
State	Before	After
Montana	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean

Montana, then, reverts to its roots, handing the Republican candidate a heavier share of support. In the process, McCain augments his "safer" electoral votes by three. Obama still has nearly as many electoral votes stored away in his strong category as McCain does in his strong and lean categories. That hasn't changed. What has changed is that some McCain toss ups are shifting into more comfortable positions for the Arizona senator and all the while -- especially with the addition of Ohio yesterday -- has increased his toss up total as well. McCain's advantage over Obama in projected toss up electoral votes is now almost 50.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What we are witnessing is a subtle shift toward McCain. The Arizona senator and his running mate have shored up some of the traditional Republican states, but other than Ohio, Obama is not yielding any states that are shaded in blue.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	MT-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	AK-3 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	SD-3 (146)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (143)	ID-4 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	ND-3 (314/227)	GA-15 (109)	KY-8 (32)
ME-4 (56)	NM-5 (212)	IN-11 (325/224)	MS-6 (94)	AL-9 (24)
NY-31 (87)	WI-10 (222)	FL-27 (352/213)	WV-5 (88)	OK-7 (15)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	AZ-10 (83)	WY-3 (8)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

And when the focus shifts to the Electoral College Spectrum, the thing that is striking is that there just isn't that much light blue anymore. Ohio is pink and Nevada remains tied. The real test for Obama, then, appears to be keeping Colorado and New Hampshire on his side of the partisan line. With Montana's shift the Arizona senator has now consolidated the right two columns on the spectrum, but that gets him only to within 110 electoral votes of 270. There are still a number of states in pink, but one has to wonder how long that will be the case. If the new trend is for traditional Republican states to begin shifting toward McCain, then we might expect Indiana and North Dakota to shift toward McCain.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Georgia	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Mississippi	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Tie	to Toss Up McCain/Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

With new polling, Montana and North Carolina join the Watch List. I don't know that we've heard the last of Montana as a toss up, but, like Georgia, it could be jettisoned by the Obama campaign in order to focus on Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire, for example. North Carolina is now right up against the line between being a toss up and a lean state. If 20 point margins are the new trend in the Tar Heel state, then it won't take too long for the state to move into McCain lean territory. Given the polling history there, though, that seems a stretch.

As was the case yesterday, though, we are going to have to wait and see how this all plays out for the next week or so.


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