The Electoral College Map (9/16/08)

Life always proves that if you wait long enough, what you're waiting for will eventually happen. Well, we've finally got a new poll out Delaware. And you know what? Having a vice presidential candidate from the First state is worth about three points. The last time Delaware was polled was back in February and not-even-nominee Obama's advantage over John McCain was 9 points. Seven months later with the addition of Joe Biden to ticket, Obama is now ahead by 12 points. But hey, we've got a new poll out of Delaware.

New Polls (Sept. 15)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Delaware	Rasmussen	+12
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+5
New York	Siena	+5
Ohio	Suffolk	+4
Ohio	Survey USA	+4
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+3
Oregon	Moore	+6
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Utah	Rasmussen	+32
Virginia	Survey USA	+4
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	0

The rest of the changes for today are pretty much par for the course; all the way from that +32 in Utah to the tie in Survey USA's poll of Virginia. But this list is not without its anomalies. For starters, the other poll out of Virginia -- from Rasmussen -- has Obama ahead by four while the firm's survey in Pennsylvania has McCain up by two. That's the Arizona senator's first poll lead in the Keystone state since the end of April. Not as large a gap as the one between polls in Delaware, but a large gap nonetheless. Pennsylvania has been tighter lately but the scales had yet to tip in McCain's direction. Now they have. But will that remain the case? Possibly, but Pennsylvania, like Virginia, is settling in as a toss up state and it likely to stay there for the duration of this campaign. The other poll of note is the Siena poll out of New York. That five point Obama edge is far below some of the other polls we've seen out of the Empire state. However, it feels a lot like the Marist poll out of New Jersey over the weekend: a bit too much like a tease for Republicans. If New York is on the table then Obama really is in trouble. I just don't think it is, though.

Changes (Sept. 15)
State	Before	After
Delaware	Obama lean	Strong Obama

Despite some interesting results, the only poll that triggers any noticeable change is the Rasmussen poll of Delaware. Biden's selection seems to have done something in the First state that hasn't happened across either of the two previous cycles: move Delaware out of the "lean" category. The First state has been in that 7-9 point range both in the polls and in the voting booth for much of this decade. Having a favorite son on the ticket makes a typically reliable Democratic state even more reliable. And hey, it's one state other than Ohio that has flipped toward Obama over the last week.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Those three electoral votes shifting even deeper into Obama territory doesn't really do a whole lot to change the map. In fact, the 273-265 edge that Obama held prior to the addition of the 12 new polls from nine states above. We are to a point now where it appears as if we have a pretty good idea about where the battle will be over the next 48 days. Several states like Montana and North Dakota have become more red and in the process have shifted the battle more onto formerly Obama turf.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
CA-55 (111)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
NY-31 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Electoral College Spectrum gives us a better idea of how this is playing out. The real fight right now is among the eleven states from New Mexico on the left to Missouri on the right. The 143 electoral votes combined will likely decide who wins the election on November 4. Recently Colorado and New Hampshire had collectively shared the distinction as the Victory line -- the line at which 270 electoral votes would be passed for each candidate. Only with New Hampshire hypothetically on the McCain side and Colorado on the Obama side, the tally for each candidate came to 269 electoral votes. Now however, the Granite and Centennial states have switched positions. So now, instead one candidate having to win both states, McCain only has to win Colorado -- in addition to the states in pink -- and Obama has to win both states to surpass 270. Both states are currently favoring Obama in our weighted averages. What the shift does, though, is place added importance on Obama winning Colorado. Without it, the path to victory gets tougher if the Illinois senator is not able to peel off any of those pink states.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Nevada, Ohio and Virginia remain within a fraction of a point of switching over to Obama's side, though. And all three are accessible to Obama at the moment. But Michigan and Pennsylvania tightening up is good news for McCain. Until we get more polling out of Indiana, the battle in the current environment -- one that favors McCain -- makes this campaign a battle for Obama to shift the narrative of the campaign in a way that brings Indiana, Florida and Missouri -- the last three pink states on the Electoral College Spectrum -- into play. Without that shift, the list of swing states contracts to the eight states from New Mexico through Virginia.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/15/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/08)

Monday through Thursday last week were chock-full of polls, but as Friday moved into Saturday and Saturday into Sunday the frequency of polling releases decreased. The releases we got, however, did not lack in intrigue. Two Obama lean states took on different trajectories. Following the divergent Marist poll from Friday, the Research 2000 poll of New Jersey was more in line with where FHQ had the Garden state in its weighted average. Minnesota, however, continued to track downward for Obama. The North Star state is gradually making its way through the Obama lean category and closer to being more competitive.

New Polls (Sept. 14)
State	Poll	Margin
Minnesota	Star Tribune	0
New Jersey	Bergen/Research 2000	+9

Just to reiterate, our averages give the greatest weight to the most recent poll, but the established average based on that poll and all the polls between the most recent poll and the one conducted on or just following Super Tuesday in February changes only confronted with overwhelming evidence. Sudden double digit shifts then are treated not as trend makers but as outliers until such time that such a pattern becomes normalized. This guards against some of the volatility we see in some other examinations of the electoral college. In Minnesota's case, we are getting closer to the point when we can begin possibly including it in the discussion with all the other toss up states. For now, though, Minnesota and New Jersey stay right where they are; firmly within the Obama lean category.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The result is that the map is unchanged from how it appeared yesterday. Obama maintains an eight electoral vote advantage; an advantage that could disappear if New Hampshire's four electoral votes went to McCain. Of course that would cause a tie in the electoral college that would send the election in to the House, but that's a story for another day. [As an aside, I have not included the latest Zogby data in the battleground states yet. I'm planning on looking at the post-convention bounce for McCain and want to treat that data the same way I treated the 34 state polling spree that the firm did at the end of June. If you'll recall I initially looked at Obama's nomination bounce without that data, but revised the June map in my post on the July trends to show the difference those polls made. In the same way that the late June polls favored Obama, this latest round of Zogby polls appears to give McCain edges in some states beyond what we have seen in other recent polling. So, some time this week I'll post those post-convention changes both with and without the Zogby polls.]

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	DE-3 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The map fails to change and the Electoral College Spectrum only sees New Jersey and Iowa trade places. In addition, the weekend closed with no additions to or subtractions from the Watch List. Most of these potential changes continue to favor Obama. If for example these moves took place it would mean that Obama would gain the 25 electoral votes from Nevada and Ohio, firm up his position in states like New Mexico and Washington, and bring Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota back into play. As I said yesterday, though, that would require a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the race. If McCain continues to do well, the Arizona senator could bring Wisconsin into play and increase his position in places like Florida, Nevada and Ohio. At the opening of this week, the latter seems more likely than the former. With Wall Street back in the news, though, increased focus on the economy would be a welcome change -- at least in the eyes of Democrats -- from the bounce and all other things McCain-Palin.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

At the opening of this week, the latter seems more likely than the former. With Wall Street back in the news, though, increased focus on the economy would be a welcome change -- at least in the eyes of Democrats -- from the bounce and all other things McCain-Palin.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

Saturday's polls didn't do a whole lot to move the needle, but merely confirmed the pattern that has emerged since the two major parties' conventions came to a close. Mainly, McCain is solidifying his position in traditionally Republican states (like South Dakota), has edged ahead in the closest toss up states (like Nevada) and is making up ground in a handful of Obama states (like Minnesota and Washington). The momentum in the race, then, continues to be behind the Arizona senator.

New Polls (Sept. 13)
State	Poll	Margin
Iowa	Selzer	+12
Minnesota	Survey USA	+2
Nevada	Rasmussen	+3
South Dakota	Rasmussen	+17
Utah	Jones	+38
Washington	Elway	+9

Iowa is a state that could very easily go the route of Minnesota and Washington but has been very steady of late. Strangely, after moving toward McCain in early August prior to the conventions, Iowa has rebounded for Obama in the post-convention period. Nonetheless, those three Obama states above are essentially one and the same as far as their individual weighted averages are concerned.

Changes (Sept. 13)
State	Before	After
South Dakota	McCain lean	Strong McCain

As I said above, nothing is terribly eye-catching in the three red state polls. Utah isn't going anywhere, but South Dakota has followed the path of Alaska, Montana and North Dakota by moving toward McCain since the conventions. The uptick in the support for McCain in the Mount Rushmore state polling has pushed the state's average up above the strong McCain line. And that's the only switch on the map for today. [I know, I've gotten used to the multiple daily changes on the maps over the last week, too.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So while those 3 electoral votes shift into the strong McCain category, the basic distribution of electoral votes remains the same: Obama leads 273-265. What is truly striking is that over the last week the gap in the two candidates' strong category electoral vote totals has been cut in half. Obama had been carrying a nearly 2:1 advantage over McCain during the conventions (165-94 EVs), but that has since dwindled to a narrower gap (154-110) recently. More than anything, this is indicative of the movement among those surprisingly close red states that coalesced behind the McCain-Palin ticket following its full-scale introduction at the GOP convention. But it also shows that some of those states that had been near the line between strong Obama and Obama lean (Minnesota and Washington) have shifted toward McCain into that latter category.

McCain makes up the ground he loses in the strong states by beating Obama out overall in the toss up states. That collection of states, though, is more vulnerable to the shifts of the campaign. With the wind at his back, McCain has an edge, but does that continue if, say, Obama does well in the first debate, effectively shifting the narrative in the process? Maybe, maybe not. The point is that the opinions in those states is far less solidified than in the strong states or the majority of lean states.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	DE-3 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

This idea is borne out in the Electoral College Spectrum as well. Here we see not just the effect of this in terms of the number of electoral votes, but as a tally of the states as well. Due to the number of states that are usually Republican, McCain should expect to break into the third column with a combination of red and/or pink states, but his group of states now stretches up most of that middle column. The result is that Obama's list of toss up states has shrunk in number and in electoral votes. With the momentum going with McCain now, we no longer talk about how far Obama may be able to stretch into McCain territory, but can begin to envision McCain seriously playing offense in Obama territory.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As I pointed out yesterday, most of the states on the Watch List are in a position to move into categories closer to Obama. The Illinois senator would have to alter the dynamics of the race to accomplish that, however. The basic trendline is such that Obama is going to be hard-pressed to shift the narrative of the campaign without the intervention of some outside event. And the debates offer the clearest opportunity for Obama to directly shift things on anything approaching his terms.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

It appears to have been another good day of polling for McCain. Tighter margins in New Jersey and Washington go nicely with yet another switch in Ohio -- this time back into McCain's column. The resulting 273-265 electoral vote tally is the closest it has been since late May and early June.

New Polls (Sept. 12)
State	Poll	Margin
Missouri	Rasmussen	+5
New Jersey	Marist	+3
Ohio	University of Cinncinati	+4
Oklahoma	Rasmussen	+31
Oregon	Hoffman	+7
Washington	Rasmussen	+2

Washington ends up going the way of Minnesota: one more state that had hovered around the ten point mark for most of this cycle, yet has suddenly appeared more competitive. New Jersey just feels like another tease for the Republicans. I could be wrong but this is just what the Garden state did four years ago. Then again, there is a difference between Bush and McCain, at least from the McCain campaign's perspective. The Obama folks may wish to disagree.

Changes (Sept. 12)
State	Before	After
Ohio	Toss Up Obama	Toss Up McCain
Washington	Strong Obama	Obama lean

And once again Ohio flips back to McCain. Those twenty electoral votes are the ones most up for grabs at this point. Nevada is a close second. However, if you are looking for the state to decide this election, Ohio is looking like it is attempting to reprise its role from 2004. But Florida looked that way too in 2004 before that series of of hurricanes ripped across the state. I'll let our loyal readers decide if that was a decisive factor in Bush's victory there. I will say this, though, it gave Bush an opportunity to look presidential just prior to the election.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So should Obama sit on an eight electoral vote advantage? Or more importantly, will he and his campaign? My guess is no. But just as was the case during the primaries, the campaign is hugely confident in its ground game, and even though money isn't everything, that $10 million dollar response to Palin's speech, indicates that there is still a well that can be tapped from here until election day.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	MN-10 (164)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (175)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SD-3 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (146)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	WV-5 (112)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	AK-3 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	GA-15 (104)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	AZ-10 (89)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

There is a whole lot of different shades of red on the Electoral College Spectrum now, though. With both Ohio and Nevada now pink, Colorado now looks a whole lot more important. I'd still like to see some more polling out of New Hampshire to see the Palin effect there (perceived to be negative among indepedents there), but we could just as easily see Michigan and New Hampshire switch places. And that would really put the pressure on the Obama campaign.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

For the time being, though, Michigan is safe from the Watch List. In fact, though it is a toss up, it is still just more than three points in Obama's favor. Washington stays on but changes positions. Now, instead of being on the line between staying strongly in the Obama column and changing to an Obama lean, the opposite is true. The end result is that most states on the list now are on the line between staying where they are and moving away from McCain -- whether to a less solidly McCain category or a more intensely Obama category. In the current environment though some of those moves just seem very unlikely.


Recent Posts:
Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race

Yeah, FHQ has been rather devoted to the electoral college this week. [Well, that and the classes I'm teaching this semester, but that's a different story.] As I've looked at things more and more, I've had a couple of questions about the direction things are actually moving in this race. We have had 46 polls released this week (47 counting the Rasmussen poll of Washington released this morning.) and the overall trend seems to favor McCain -- on both the national and state level. But as I discussed in the map post I put up for today, the biggest shifts are among these states -- traditionally Republican states -- that that have been surprisingly competitive until this post-convention period. There has also been some augmentation of McCain's leads in even some of the ruby red states and some subtle, yet less clear movement in the battleground states.

What does this leave us with, then? Well, even if you hold out the electoral votes from Nevada and Ohio -- two states that are basically tied -- Obama still, even in the midst of this McCain bounce, maintains an advantage over the Arizona senator in the electoral college. Granted, at 273-240, it is a smaller edge and even smaller if we assume that McCain wins both Nevada and Ohio (273-265 EVs). But Obama surpasses 270 in both situations and that's the point. At what point do we (or should we) begin thinking of this current race as similar to the primary race for the Democratic nomination? Similar to the delegate lead he held over Clinton after his February string of victories and subsequently sat on until primary season ended, does Obama simply sit back and play defense in these toss up states that have been favoring him? If we begin thinking of the electoral vote advantages as similar to the delegate advantage, can Obama just simply play defense, leaning on his advantages in the ground game in most of these states (Michigan being the possible exception.) and still win.

Now, this asks us to some extent to suspend our belief that the campaign matters. At the same time, though, we are taking a step back from the micro-level view of the race -- lipstick comments and ABC interviews, etc. -- to take on a more macro- view of where this race is. And with history in the primary campaign as our guide, does Obama reign things in and play defense to ensure a win, however small?

Another question that I've had as more and more polling has emerged this week reverses course from above, focusing on micro-level trends. We have had, as I said above, 46 state polls released this week. Two-thirds of those polls have been conducted in states that are or were toss up states according to our averages at the time the polls were released. But one thing that has stood out is the lack of polling in those "strong" Obama states. Yes, we've had polls from Maine, Maryland and Washington, but there have been twice as many polls released from "strong" McCain states. How much do the large margins in those states feed into the narrative that McCain is surging? Alternatively, are things timed in a way that polling in those "strong" Obama states begins emerging as a potentially stale Palin narrative fades out to be replaced by the next big thing -- an Obama rebound? Or do tighter margins in those states continue to feed the current media narrative?

Now, I've asked more questions here than I've answered, but that's kind of by design. The daily electoral college updates have quashed the variety we've had lately (but so too has the void left by the conventions) and in the process the discussions we've had in the comments section. So what do you think? Is the current state of the general election campaign similar to the primary campaign? Are the states where polling has been released driving the stories in the media? The comments section awaits!

Also, what were everyone's impressions/thoughts on the Palin interview last night?


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/10/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/12/08)

Well, there wasn't much to look at today. Or, in actuality, we had the biggest one day polling release for this cycle thus far. Altogether, there were 20 new polls out in 13 states and the combined effect was further confirmation of the movement we have witnessed in this first week following convention season. In other words, the campaign since the conventions ended -- "silly season" according to Barack Obama on David Letterman -- has been marked by a decided movement toward John McCain in traditionally Republican states. Traditionally Republican, that is, regardless of whether any state had appeared competitive in the polls up to this point in the race. Alaska, Montana and North Dakota, I'm looking in your direction.

New Polls (Sept. 11)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+20
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+1
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+3
Florida	Quinnipiac	+7
Florida	Insider Advantage	+8
Georgia	Strategic Vision	+13
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+18
Idaho	Rasmussen	+39
Maine	Daily Kos/Research 2000	+14
Michigan	Insider Advantage	+1
Michigan	Rasmussen	+5
Mississippi	Daily Kos/Research 2000	+18
Nevada	Insider Advantage	+1
North Carolina	Civitas	+3
North Carolina	Daily Kos/Reearch 2000	+17
Ohio	Strategic Vision	+4
Ohio	Quinnipiac	+5
Ohio	Insider Advantage	+1
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac	+3
Wyoming	Rasmussen	+19

And what we see on that list is that, yeah, states like Georgia and Mississippi -- states that had averages in the single digits over the summer -- now appear to be solidly behind the McCain-Palin ticket. But the shift toward McCain isn't confined to just the typical Republican states; it just hasn't been as pronounced elsewhere. There has been a tightening across many of the Obama toss up states (Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and a subtle lengthening of the margins in some of the other McCain toss up states (Florida and North Carolina).

Changes (Sept. 11)
State	Before	After
Georgia	McCain lean	Strong McCain
Nevada	Tie	Toss Up McCain
North Carolina	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
Ohio	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama

And after Virgina moved off the Watch List (those states within fraction of a point of changing categories), that left Ohio and Nevada as the two closest states -- those most likely to change hands in the face of new data. Nevada had been tied and with the Insider Advantage poll now gives McCain a very slight advantage at the moment. The Silver state is one that we've waited on for more polling to emerge, but that isn't the case for other toss up states like Ohio. Due to the volume of polling in the Buckeye state and the miniscule nature of the the margin between McCain and Obama there, any new information is likely to swing Ohio in one direction or the other. Just this week we've seen Ohio shift from Obama to McCain and, now with three new polls, back again.

I will say this about both of these states: we may as well color both in white -- to signify a tie -- because that is how close each is right now. Obama's edge in the weighted average for Ohio is at 0.02 points and McCain's advantage in Nevada is 0.15 points. Bascially, each is close enough that any poll favoring either candidate is very likely to move the state from one category to the other. Yesterday I spoke about the beauty of weighting the most recent poll, but this underscores one of the drawbacks. The advantage is that there just isn't the volatility that we see across other electoral college analyses that simply look at the most recent poll(s). That stability exists except in some of the closest states, especially when there isn't a clear pattern to the polling within any one [very] close state. Nevada, at a one point margin, is in line with where we would expect it to be, but the Ohio polls that have been released this week have been erratic, and that's an understatement. Four polls have provided us with a range from +7 for McCain to +5 for Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The shift of Ohio back into Obama's column likely breaks with many of the other current analyses right now, but those 20 electoral votes give Obama a nearly 50 electoral vote advantage is this was how the election went. However, a better way of discussing this may be to pull the 25 electoral votes of Nevada and Ohio combined and look at the total in their absence. That would yield Obama a 273-240 lead, which still keeps the Illinois senator over the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory. So even if the momentum was in McCain's direction -- and it certainly appears that it is -- it doesn't necessarily push the Arizona senator over the top. That momentum, though, would likely manifest itself in the Obama toss up states in some way as well. It just isn't clear given the data we now have whether that would be enough in states like Colorado, Michigan or Pennsylvania.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	MN-10 (175)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	DE-3 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	SD-3 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (146)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	WV-5 (112)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	AK-3 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (333/216)	GA-15 (104)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	FL-27 (360/205)	AZ-10 (89)	OK-7 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

If we shift our focus to the Electoral College Spectrum, we see that North Carolina has shifted into the middle ground on the McCain side of the ledger. Again, this further evidence of the McCain toss up state list contracting. Both Florida and Missouri are not far behind and there has yet to be a post-convention poll released in Indiana to dispute or confirm the Hoosier state's standing as a toss up state. [It worked this morning when I called for some polling in Nevada, so perhaps it will happen again.] The effect this movement has is that the playing field has shifted. Pink states are turning a darker shade and the real battle is taking place among a decreasing number of McCain toss ups and the more stable, yet no less vulnerable, Obama toss up states.

The Obama campaign has to hope that the Palin phenomenon ends soon -- and with the ABC interview airing today and tomorrow it is likely to extend at least into and through the weekend -- whether by their own efforts to brand her or by some type of gaffe on her part. Shifting that narrative and moving beyond that back to the issues is an important, not to mention difficult, task for the Obama campaign. The big question now is when will the media tire of the Palin story? The McCain folks hope around November 5 or so, but the Obama campaign has to hope that 1) its arguments begin having some traction or if not that 2) the media moves on to something else; something that provides the Democrats with an opening that they can exploit. I would imagine that that something would have to come along prior to the debates which get under way two weeks from tomorrow.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Minnesota	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Tie	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Let's close with an eye towards which states may move with new polling. Nevada and Ohio are still the two to watch most closely, but that is likely to be the case all the way up to election day. Other than that, given the current environment, Florida and Missouri potentially shifting in to the McCain lean category is of huge consequence. Yet as we've seen here, all Obama really has to do is play defense in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. That would get him to 273 and a win is a win. Obama, then still has more paths to victory, but that victory appears as if it will be a narrow one. The options that have been taken off the table are the blowout paths to victory.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/10/08)

The Links (9/9/08): Advertising Call and Response