The Electoral College Map (9/19/08)

Another day, another 32 polls added to the mix. We continue to see a solidifying of the race on one level -- in some traditionally Republican states -- and more and more volatility in the swing states. Two of yesterday's highlighted swing states, Colorado and Florida, are back in the spotlight today, but for different reasons. Colorado, after giving McCain a series of slight leads in recent polling, shifted back in Obama's direction yesterday. Yes, the National Journal poll shows the race in a dead heat which is where the race had been trending, but the shift back to Obama is based on the ten point margin in the first Insider Advantage survey of the Centennial state. In Florida, the tightening continues. Sure, the six point McCain lead in the Survey USA poll is above FHQ's average in the Sunshine state, but that is more than outweighed by the pair of ties in the state's other two polls. The effect is that Florida is drawing closer as we head down the stretch in this race.

New Polls (Sept. 18)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Survey USA	+30
Colorado	National Journal	+1
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+10
Connecticut	Rasmussen	+12
Florida	National Journal	0
Florida	ARG	0
Florida	Survey USA	+6
Georgia	Rasmussen	+11
Georgia	Survey USA	+16
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+8
Illinois	Big Ten	+15.9
Indiana	Selzer	+3
Indiana	Big Ten	+3.5
Iowa	Big Ten	0
Michigan	Big Ten	+4
Minnesota	Big Ten	+2.8
Nebraska	ARG	+26
New Hampshire	ARG	+3
New Jersey	Strategic Vision	+4
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+13
New Mexico	National Journal	+7
New Mexico	Survey USA	+8
Ohio	National Journal	+1
Ohio	Big Ten	+0.5
Oregon	Hibbitts/Port. Trib.	+10
Pennsylvania	Big Ten	+0.4
South Carolina	ARG	+22
Virginia	National Journal	+7
Virginia	Insider Advantage	+2
Washington	Strategic Vision	+5
Wisconsin	Big Ten	+0.9

But it isn't all Colorado and Florida. The Big Ten consortium of surveys provides us with a great new source of polling information in a vital area. The Rust Belt has had and continues to have a disproportionate number of swing states compared with other areas of the country. And this series of polls does little to alter that perception. Illinois is the only exception, but the remaining states are all if not within the margin of error, very close to it. That isn't surprising in states like Ohio or Pennsylvania. But these polls do seem to confirm the competitiveness we have witnessed in recent surveys of Minnesota and shows a much tighter race in Iowa than our average would indicate. There have been blips of competitiveness in the Hawkeye state polling throughout this race, but on the whole, it has been firmly planted in the Obama lean category. As is the case when these seeming outliers appear, we will need additional information to confirm that this is, in fact, a trend. [This does speak to some of these rather wide ranges of polling results in some states recently.]

Changes (Sept. 18)
State	Before	After
South Carolina	McCain lean	Strong McCain

Outside of the Rust Belt, though, there are some other areas of note. Further south, both Virginia and South Carolina offer interesting trends as well. In Virginia, a series of mid- to upper single digit leads for McCain over the last week plus have pushed the commonwealth's average far enough toward McCain that there is some breathing room between it and the nearly tied Nevada/Ohio group. Does that mean that McCain is destined to win there? Not necessarily, though, I would expect it to get tighter again in Virginia. South Carolina, on the other hand, is not getting more competitive. In fact, since a couple of close polls in the spring, the competitiveness in the Palmetto state has ebbed quite a bit...especially now with a more than twenty point margin in the latest poll of the state. So another traditionally Republican state slips into a safe position for McCain.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Now that Texas has moved into the strong category for McCain, the group of lean states is shrinking rapidly. And now that South Carolina has drifted into safer territory for McCain, there is a real argument that can be made for a two-tiered Republican group of states: those that are competitive and those that are not. I brought this up yesterday and it still rings true today. None of the remaining three lean states -- Alaska, North Dakota and West Virginia -- seem like they will break for Obama in the end. North Dakota has been intriguing and West Virginia certainly has been of late, but I'm having a hard time imagining either going any way other than for McCain in early November. With South Carolina out of the lean category, though, that leaves just the eleven electoral votes in that middle-ground distinction. Most of those electoral votes have become more intensely pro-McCain and in the process has virtually evened the two strong electoral vote tallies between the two candidates.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	AK-3 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	TX-34 (149)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

McCain, though, has to defend an awful lot of toss up electoral votes. And yeah, with the national polls and several consequential state polls trending against McCain, he is playing defense now. But it isn't all that bad for the Arizona senator. If, and this is a pretty big if, he can maintain leads in his toss up states, New Hampshire and Colorado are the only other states McCain will have to pick off to win. Of course, with New Hampshire and Colorado switching places on the Electoral College Spectrum, that brings the electoral college tie scenario back to the forefront. If Obama wins the blue state, successfully defends Colorado, but loses New Hampshire, then a 269-269 electoral vote tie will result. Hey, if it is going to happen, it will happen during this election. Everything else pretty much has.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As was mentioned above, South Carolina and Virginia were among the movers and shakers within this group of polls. Virginia slips off the Watch List and South Carolina moves on, but is likely not there for long. Again, as the day closes, these are the states where new polling could be the most consequential. But as I said yesterday, be on the lookout for new polls from the remaining McCain lean states. Alaska should be expected to move permanently into the strong McCain distinction. North Dakota seems to be trending in that direction as well, but West Virginia is moving in the opposite direction. Nonetheless, those three with the list above are the states to watch in the next twenty-four hours.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/18/08)

How Big Was McCain's Bounce?

The First Presidential Election Votes Get Cast Tomorrow

The Electoral College Map (9/18/08)

Phew! How about some polling? Well, we got some. Thirty-seven polls in 32 states based in large part on the 26 polls American Research Group brought our way. What did we learn? Well, McCain continues, despite trailing off in the national polls, to shore up his support in a wide range of traditionally red states. In some (like Kansas and even Idaho), he was already comfortably ahead, but in others -- ones that had shown a competitive poll or two along the way (like Georgia and Texas) -- the Arizona senator is lengthening his margins over Barack Obama. Obama is doing similarly well in the blue states with a few exceptions, namely, Illinois, Oregon and Wisconsin tightening up. But it is in the toss ups where the action continues to be.

New Polls (Sept. 17)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	ARG	+22
Alaska	ARG	+16
Arizona	ARG	+17
California	Field	+16
Colorado	ARG	+2
Delaware	ARG	+11
District of Columbia	ARG	+69
Florida	CNN	+4
Hawaii	ARG	+31
Idaho	ARG	+43
Illinois	ARG	+6
Indiana	CNN	+5
Kansas	ARG	+32
Kentucky	ARG	+20
Louisiana	ARG	+7
Maine	ARG	+10
Mississippi	ARG	+16
Missouri	ARG	+5
Montana	ARG	+2
Nevada	ARG	+3
New Mexico	ARG	+7
New York	ARG	+17
North Carolina	ARG	+11
North Carolina	CNN	+1
Ohio	ARG	+6
Ohio	CNN	+2
Oregon	Rasmussen	+4
Rhode Island	ARG	+26
Rhode Island	Rasmussen	+19
Texas	ARG	+21
Utah	ARG	+36
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+2
Virginia	Chris. Newport Univ.	+9
West Virginia	ARG	+4
Wisconsin	CNN	+4
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	+2
Wyoming	ARG	+38

In both Colorado and Florida, the surveys showed results contrary to where FHQ's averages have each as of now. The effect was that each drew closer. Of the three closest states, McCain managed a small lead in Nevada while the two polls each out in both Ohio and Virginia provided split decisions: one for McCain, one for Obama. Outside of those instances among the toss up states, the rest held steady in the territory they had been prior to the introduction of these polls. Indiana and Missouri still maintain leads for McCain and Obama is ahead in New Mexico

Changes (Sept. 17)
State	Before	After
Alaska	Strong McCain	McCain lean
Montana	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean
North Carolina	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain
Texas	McCain lean	Strong McCain

But it was the introduction of more competitive poll results in Montana and North Carolina that pushed each back into the toss up category. Texas, however, moved in the opposite direction. The Lone Star state's 34 electoral votes were never really in doubt, but the average has been between 8 and 10 points for much of the summer. With them shifting in to McCain's strong category, the Arizona senator has a total that is now on par with Obama's tally of strong state electoral votes. New Mexico, after a flirtation with being a toss up state, moved right back onto to moderately safer ground among Obama's lean states.

Finally, Alaska changes due to a bit of quirk in our methodology. The Last Frontier shifts back into the lean distinction, but that has more to do with most recent poll -- the one that receives the highest weight -- changing from the +31 Rasmussen poll last week to the +16 ARG poll this week. With the weight coming off that wide margin and it being pushed into the average of the other polls in the state, the overall average was going to drop. And it dropped just below the strong/lean line. I don't expect it to stay there.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So, while the electoral vote distribution remains the same (273-265), something of an interesting pattern has emerged on the map (...and the Electoral College Spectrum below). With Texas moving toward McCain and Montana and North Carolina becoming more competitive, the lean category on the Republican side is suddenly quite thin. The four states in that category comprise just 19 electoral votes, and I don't particularly see any of them voting for Obama in November. You could perhaps make an argument for North Dakota, but it would have to be considered a stretch. So while we have a three tiered division on the Democratic side, the states in red are suddenly either really with McCain-Palin or close enough to be considered competitive. There just isn't any middle ground. McCain can almost assuredly count on 160 electoral votes, then, but the Arizona senator finds himself having to defend 105 electoral votes and that doesn't even get him to 270. And that's quite a shift in thinking considering how some people were talking last week (Yeah, I'm looking at you "jittery" Democrats.).

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	NE-5 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	SC-8 (157)	AR-6 (59)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	WV-5 (149)	KS-6 (53)
CT-7 (21)	IA-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
MD-10 (31)	OR-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
IL-21 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (349/200)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	NM-5 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Despite that, if McCain can defend those 105 electoral votes and pick off Colorado, he'll win. And let's not let the fact that the margins in the Centennial state have closed and cases are favoring McCain slip by unmentioned. Colorado is, at the moment, the state where each candidate would surpass 270 electoral votes. Call it what you will, Victory Line, Tipping Point, whatever. Colorado is the new Ohio. Sadly, Coloradans were four years too early with their plan to allocate electoral votes in a method similar to Maine and Nebraska. If they (Coloradans) were voting in November for that switch -- from winner-take-all to a districted system -- to take place, things certainly would have gotten interesting in mile high country. Hey, even if they had passed that measure in 2004, it would give us a talking point with it currently occupying "most consequential state" status. Too bad. That would have been fun.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

We have a couple of additions to the Watch List today with Delaware (see Alaska above for an explanation) and Texas joining in. I expect both to move back off the list, away from the lines around which they are currently hovering. Montana is the only state to leave the list and we have a pair of flip-flops in New Mexico and North Carolina. The latter two moved toward Obama and are now on the Watch to potentially switch back closer to McCain. As we move forward, these are the states to keep an eye on, but also be sure to keep tabs on what is happening with those leaning Republican states. Will we continue to see basically two categories there and three for the Democrats? And if so, what does that mean? It is an interesting development.

Recent Posts:
How Big Was McCain's Bounce?

The First Presidential Election Votes Get Cast Tomorrow

The Links (9/17/08): Debate Edition

How Big Was McCain's Bounce?

Hey, what's with the past tense? Well, a consensus seems to have emerged that McCain peaked -- at least in the context of the convention bounce -- some time last week. First the national polls began drifting back toward Obama and now we have begun to see hints of a similar pattern on the state level. But how and where did McCain bounce following the GOP convention in St. Paul? As has been our custom here at FHQ, we keep tabs on these shifts with periodic examinations of the changes to our weighted averages. Typically that has meant a monthly wrap up post, but the two conventions straddled the line between August and September, making that a difficult enterprise. The trends on the state level during the first two-thirds of August didn't really seem to favor either candidate despite talk of Obama's continued slide in the polls. Much of that could be attributed to the fact that many of the mountain west states were not polled during that time. In other words, we did not have a complete, state-by-state understanding of what was going on. Those gaps have been filled in the post-convention period.

Using the electoral map FHQ posted on the eve of the Democratic convention as our baseline, we can compare where the race was on August 24 to where it is now (...or was as of last Saturday*). I should note that we are talking about changes to our average and by its nature that means that the shifts are, on the whole, kind of small. To get a large shift, one of two things has to happen: 1) a number of polls indicates a distinct trend toward one candidate in a state or 2) one outlier poll completely changes the average in state that has been polled very sporadically. North Carolina is the best example of the former. The latter is well illustrated by a trio of states: Louisiana and West Virginia moving toward Obama while Vermont moved toward McCain. And the movement in these three states is due to a decrease in a substantial lead. Vermont's average for example shifted nearly 6.5 points based entirely upon a new poll (one of three total from the state) that had Obama ahead just 19 points instead of a number in the mid- to high twenties. Keep this in mind as you look at the movement across each state.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

And what we see is an awful lot of McCain yellow. The Arizona senator put some distance between himself and Barack Obama in a lot of traditionally Republican states, from the mountain west and into the South. In fairness though, McCain also made up ground in more competitive states like Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Oregon. He also increased his small advantage in Virginia. But Obama made strides in several states as well. Most notably, he gained ground in Indiana and Missouri and extended advantages in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania being a gain state for Obama during the McCain bounce period may raise some eyebrows. Hasn't there been a decided down trend for the Illinois senator in the polls conducted in the Keystone state? Yes, but over the summer when Obama was enjoying a noticeable lengthening of his lead in Pennsylvania polling, our average nearly inched out of the toss up distinction, but never did. While other electoral college analyses moved Pennsylvania into safer categories for Obama, it never budged from the toss up distinction here. [Awfully braggy, aren't we, FHQ?] That has a lot to do with the fact that there was already a massive amount of polling done in Pennsylvania during primary season. That kept the average for the Keystone state rooted in the 3-5 point range for Obama for the most part. So, the average removes most of the volatility from poll to poll, keeping Pennsylvania anchored to a certain equilibrium, and in the process mutes some of the movement that otherwise looked to be heading in McCain's direction.

Let me close by focusing on the swing states. States like Alaska, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota all moved off the board -- perhaps not permanently, but they are off for now -- during this post-convention period. Among the remaining eleven toss up states, though, McCain gained in seven (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Florida) while Obama inched up in four (Missouri, Indiana**, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire). I have asked the question before, but was the bounce in the national polls distributed evenly across all states? No. McCain shored up his base in some traditionally Republican states, but also seems to have edged out Obama among the battleground states as well. What does that mean, though? If this is, in fact, McCain's peak, then pulling to within eight electoral votes (273-265) is close but not quite good enough. However, if external factors intervene and one candidate has the momentum down the stretch, those toss ups may break in concert in one direction on November 4.

*The map charts the changes to FHQ's weighted averages in the states over that period (August 25 - September 12). Last Friday was the back end boundary because that was the cut off between a week of intense polling and a weekend where the releases dwindled. In the time since the week end we've seen a subtle shift back toward Obama. So to capture the full McCain bounce, it was incumbent upon FHQ to include only those polls that were conducted and released during the Arizona senator's peak period in the polls.

**Of course, Indiana's one poll during this period was released between the Democratic and Republican conventions. That poll favored McCain, but the margin was smaller in that Howey-Gage poll than the previous two polls conducted in the Hoosier state.


Recent Posts:
The First Presidential Election Votes Get Cast Tomorrow

The Links (9/17/08): Debate Edition

The Electoral College Map (9/17/08)

The First Presidential Election Votes Get Cast Tomorrow

We can talk all we want about debate effects and October surprises, but if you're in the Louisville area of Kentucky and have an excuse, you can vote absentee in person starting tomorrow. Wow! Mid-September surprise, anyone? If you're one of those voters, what's likely going through your head? Through what process do you go to reach a decision? And more importantly, which candidate does this potentially advantage. Kentucky will likely go for McCain (I haven't seen any evidence to convince me of anything to the contrary.), but Louisville was one of the few areas where Obama did moderately well against Clinton in the primaries back in May. In the grand scheme of things, this last one is a silly question, but what other thoughts do our readers have on this?

Fairfax County, Virginia, a much more consequential area in this election, begins its early voting on Friday.

Thanks to Paul Gronke over at Election Updates for the heads up.


Recent Posts:
The Links (9/17/08): Debate Edition

The Electoral College Map (9/17/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/08)

The Links (9/17/08): Debate Edition

If you're like me, you've been waiting on the next big thing in this presidential campaign: the debates. Well, we're a little over a week away from the first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama on Friday, September 26.

If you want a look back at debates past, PBS has an updated version of their documentary, Debating Our Destiny, up on their site. This is a condensed version of the original that packs the televised debates between 1960 1976 and 1996 into the first twenty or so minutes before giving a more in-depth treatment to the debates from the last two cycles. These include not only clips of the debates but interviews with the candidates themselves. Good stuff.

Also, as I alluded to in my comment in a previous post, there is a difference in the formats from four years ago to now. Here is the break down from the Commission on Presidential Debates:

First presidential debate:
Friday, September 26
University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS

Vice presidential debate:
Thursday, October 2
Washington University in St. Louis, MO

Second presidential debate:
Tuesday, October 7
Belmont University, Nashville, TN

Third presidential debate:
Wednesday, October 15
Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

But those are only the locations. The first, third and vice presidential debates will be sit-down discussions at a table with the moderator. The second debate will be a town hall event. None of those formats break terribly far from the previous model of presidential debates, but the fact that the first (domestic) (foreign policy*) and final (foreign policy) (domestic) debates will be divided into 8 ten minute issue segments is a different approach. One additional quirk is the effort between the Commission and MySpace (MyDebates.org) to allow for online streaming of the debates as well internet questions to be submitted for use in the town hall debate. Sadly, this will not include video questions from snowmen describing the downside of global warming. Democracy has its limits, I suppose.

As a wrap up to convention season, Tom Holbrook has a comparison of the his predictions for this year's conventions and the actual bumps they produced. FHQ will be back later in the day with its own examination of the changes on the state level.

One last and unrelated thing: If you are in search of something to do with a few spare seconds, check out the Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator. And if you have a few more spare seconds post your new names here. Tell 'em Stag Tonnage Palin sent you. (H/t to Enik Rising for the link.)

*It is sad that the Commission actually in charge of putting these debates on doesn't have this information readily available. However the University of Mississippi, where the first debate is being held, confirms that the focus that night will be on foreign policy issues. Thanks to reader, Erik Redin, for the scoop. Now I want some answers. How long after Obama clinched the nomination was this decision made? How long did it take for it to be realized that the location of one of the most visible demonstrations of college admissions segregation would not, perhaps, be the best venue for a debate on domestic issues? And why did this news not see the light of day. As recently as August 6, when the Commission announced its selections for debate moderators, Ole Miss was under the impression that the debate was still on domestic issues. This is strange. I have a couple of potential contacts at Ole Miss. I'll see what I can find out.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/17/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/17/08)

***Note: If you haven't already, be sure and check out the changes to the map over the last few days (Saturday-Tuesday). I've been playing catch up since the weekend, but everything is all updated now. Well, updated with the exception of the latest Zogby polling in the battleground states. For an explanation on why that is being excluded for the time being see the aside in 9/15 map post. All the weekend links are at conclusion of this post.

Thanks,
FHQ

Well, we have a pretty blue day in the polls. Blue in that the states are for the most part favorable to Obama, but also blue because there are only five new polls out in four states. Last week it was difficult to keep apace of all the new polling releases, but it was fun. More information is always better than less information.

New Polls (Sept. 16)
State	Poll	Margin
New Jersey	Quinnipiac	+3
New Jersey	Monmouth	+8
New York	Rasmussen	+13
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	+4
Vermont	Research 2000	+19

So what do we have today? New Jersey is back to canceling itself out: one tight poll followed by another more typical poll. The Garden state had a similar polling combo emerge over the weekend and all it's doing is getting Republicans' hopes up. Has New Jersey gotten slightly tighter in FHQ's weighted average? Yes, but as I argued over the weekend, New Jersey has a history of this (see 2004). Jim Campbell has a term for it: the narrowing effect. The idea is that as the campaign heats up the paths of the two major party candidates begin to converge and continue to do so throughout the duration of the campaign. And extending that idea to state-level polls would be an interesting project. It is a project that falls outside of the bounds of this blog, but an interesting project, nonetheless. In New Jersey's case, we have seen this sort of thing before, so it's movement here is somewhat predictable. The nearest "red" corrollary is Texas and I don't see Texas turning blue any more than I see New Jersey turning red at this point, much less in November. If either does change colors, one of the candidates will have won in a rout.

Like Delaware yesterday, we also have a new poll in Vermont for the first time since February. The results are not that shocking, but continue to show Obama in the driver's seat there. Just like New Jersey, New York bounces back with a more typical poll following the mere five point edge Obama held in the recent Siena poll. Finally, Ohio continues to settle into this 3 or 4 point lead for McCain with yet another 4 point edge from PPP today. That has moved Ohio two spots on the Electoral College Spectrum below.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Yet again, though, the map remains unchanged. Obama clings to a 273-265 advantage in the electoral college. And yes "cling" is both a poor word (in the context of Obama's "bitter" comments) and accurate one here. While Obama appears to have weathered the post-convention storm in the national polls (In the four tracking polls Pollster is watching, Obama is now ahead by four in two and behind by just a point in the other two.), that has yet to extend to the states in any noticeable way. That is not to say that it won't, but it hasn't yet. The two polls in Virginia yesterday are noteworthy in their shift toward Obama. But is that change -- from a 6 point McCain edge there just a week ago -- indicative of a move toward Obama or is it simply noise similar to the ranges we have seen lately in Ohio or Minnesota polling? We will have to answer that question before making any claims about an end to McCain's convention bump. As the word implies, though, it is expected to be a temporary trend.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	VA-13 (291/260)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	IA-7 (192)	OH-20 (311/247)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

With only a handful of polls out today, there was little opportunity for either the map or the Electoral College Spectrum to change. But change the latter did. Ohio, on the strength of yet another poll showing McCain ahead by a margin bordering on the margin of error, moved past both Nevada and Virginia and is now third on the list of current Republican toss ups for Obama. To be clear, we are talking about fractions of a point here, but it is worth noting that Ohio is now not only among the Republican toss ups, but is trending away from Obama. All three of those states are legitimate targets for the Illinois senator. McCain, however, has shored up support in some of those traditionally red states and has shifted the fight over these swing states to the left, well into the blue. Well, further into the blue than it had been when all the talk was about the Arizona senator having to potentially defend states like Alaska, Georgia and North Dakota. Now, I noted early on -- as did many other commentators -- that states of that ilk were stretches for the Obama campaign, but the goal was to get McCain to play some defense there. The Arizona senator didn't bite.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The talk of the convention bounce coming to an end for McCain on the state level is now something to consider. The national polls have reverted to the mean for the most part, but will that happen in the states as well? If it does, most of the 11 states above are where we should look first. Each is well within the range of changing categories and could very well shift if the campaign winds blow in that direction.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/16/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/16/08)

Life always proves that if you wait long enough, what you're waiting for will eventually happen. Well, we've finally got a new poll out Delaware. And you know what? Having a vice presidential candidate from the First state is worth about three points. The last time Delaware was polled was back in February and not-even-nominee Obama's advantage over John McCain was 9 points. Seven months later with the addition of Joe Biden to ticket, Obama is now ahead by 12 points. But hey, we've got a new poll out of Delaware.

New Polls (Sept. 15)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Delaware	Rasmussen	+12
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+5
New York	Siena	+5
Ohio	Suffolk	+4
Ohio	Survey USA	+4
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+3
Oregon	Moore	+6
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Utah	Rasmussen	+32
Virginia	Survey USA	+4
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	0

The rest of the changes for today are pretty much par for the course; all the way from that +32 in Utah to the tie in Survey USA's poll of Virginia. But this list is not without its anomalies. For starters, the other poll out of Virginia -- from Rasmussen -- has Obama ahead by four while the firm's survey in Pennsylvania has McCain up by two. That's the Arizona senator's first poll lead in the Keystone state since the end of April. Not as large a gap as the one between polls in Delaware, but a large gap nonetheless. Pennsylvania has been tighter lately but the scales had yet to tip in McCain's direction. Now they have. But will that remain the case? Possibly, but Pennsylvania, like Virginia, is settling in as a toss up state and it likely to stay there for the duration of this campaign. The other poll of note is the Siena poll out of New York. That five point Obama edge is far below some of the other polls we've seen out of the Empire state. However, it feels a lot like the Marist poll out of New Jersey over the weekend: a bit too much like a tease for Republicans. If New York is on the table then Obama really is in trouble. I just don't think it is, though.

Changes (Sept. 15)
State	Before	After
Delaware	Obama lean	Strong Obama

Despite some interesting results, the only poll that triggers any noticeable change is the Rasmussen poll of Delaware. Biden's selection seems to have done something in the First state that hasn't happened across either of the two previous cycles: move Delaware out of the "lean" category. The First state has been in that 7-9 point range both in the polls and in the voting booth for much of this decade. Having a favorite son on the ticket makes a typically reliable Democratic state even more reliable. And hey, it's one state other than Ohio that has flipped toward Obama over the last week.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Those three electoral votes shifting even deeper into Obama territory doesn't really do a whole lot to change the map. In fact, the 273-265 edge that Obama held prior to the addition of the 12 new polls from nine states above. We are to a point now where it appears as if we have a pretty good idea about where the battle will be over the next 48 days. Several states like Montana and North Dakota have become more red and in the process have shifted the battle more onto formerly Obama turf.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
CA-55 (111)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
NY-31 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Electoral College Spectrum gives us a better idea of how this is playing out. The real fight right now is among the eleven states from New Mexico on the left to Missouri on the right. The 143 electoral votes combined will likely decide who wins the election on November 4. Recently Colorado and New Hampshire had collectively shared the distinction as the Victory line -- the line at which 270 electoral votes would be passed for each candidate. Only with New Hampshire hypothetically on the McCain side and Colorado on the Obama side, the tally for each candidate came to 269 electoral votes. Now however, the Granite and Centennial states have switched positions. So now, instead one candidate having to win both states, McCain only has to win Colorado -- in addition to the states in pink -- and Obama has to win both states to surpass 270. Both states are currently favoring Obama in our weighted averages. What the shift does, though, is place added importance on Obama winning Colorado. Without it, the path to victory gets tougher if the Illinois senator is not able to peel off any of those pink states.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Nevada, Ohio and Virginia remain within a fraction of a point of switching over to Obama's side, though. And all three are accessible to Obama at the moment. But Michigan and Pennsylvania tightening up is good news for McCain. Until we get more polling out of Indiana, the battle in the current environment -- one that favors McCain -- makes this campaign a battle for Obama to shift the narrative of the campaign in a way that brings Indiana, Florida and Missouri -- the last three pink states on the Electoral College Spectrum -- into play. Without that shift, the list of swing states contracts to the eight states from New Mexico through Virginia.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/15/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/15/08)

Monday through Thursday last week were chock-full of polls, but as Friday moved into Saturday and Saturday into Sunday the frequency of polling releases decreased. The releases we got, however, did not lack in intrigue. Two Obama lean states took on different trajectories. Following the divergent Marist poll from Friday, the Research 2000 poll of New Jersey was more in line with where FHQ had the Garden state in its weighted average. Minnesota, however, continued to track downward for Obama. The North Star state is gradually making its way through the Obama lean category and closer to being more competitive.

New Polls (Sept. 14)
State	Poll	Margin
Minnesota	Star Tribune	0
New Jersey	Bergen/Research 2000	+9

Just to reiterate, our averages give the greatest weight to the most recent poll, but the established average based on that poll and all the polls between the most recent poll and the one conducted on or just following Super Tuesday in February changes only confronted with overwhelming evidence. Sudden double digit shifts then are treated not as trend makers but as outliers until such time that such a pattern becomes normalized. This guards against some of the volatility we see in some other examinations of the electoral college. In Minnesota's case, we are getting closer to the point when we can begin possibly including it in the discussion with all the other toss up states. For now, though, Minnesota and New Jersey stay right where they are; firmly within the Obama lean category.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The result is that the map is unchanged from how it appeared yesterday. Obama maintains an eight electoral vote advantage; an advantage that could disappear if New Hampshire's four electoral votes went to McCain. Of course that would cause a tie in the electoral college that would send the election in to the House, but that's a story for another day. [As an aside, I have not included the latest Zogby data in the battleground states yet. I'm planning on looking at the post-convention bounce for McCain and want to treat that data the same way I treated the 34 state polling spree that the firm did at the end of June. If you'll recall I initially looked at Obama's nomination bounce without that data, but revised the June map in my post on the July trends to show the difference those polls made. In the same way that the late June polls favored Obama, this latest round of Zogby polls appears to give McCain edges in some states beyond what we have seen in other recent polling. So, some time this week I'll post those post-convention changes both with and without the Zogby polls.]

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	WA-11 (165)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	DE-3 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	SC-8 (157)	NE-5 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	OH-20 (293/265)	TX-34 (149)	AR-6 (53)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	WV-5 (115)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	AK-3 (110)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
ME-4 (56)	WI-10 (217)	FL-27 (349/216)	AZ-10 (92)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (87)	NM-5 (222/321)	MO-11 (360/189)	SD-3 (82)	ID-4 (16)
CA-55 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	MS-6 (79)	OK-7 (12)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The map fails to change and the Electoral College Spectrum only sees New Jersey and Iowa trade places. In addition, the weekend closed with no additions to or subtractions from the Watch List. Most of these potential changes continue to favor Obama. If for example these moves took place it would mean that Obama would gain the 25 electoral votes from Nevada and Ohio, firm up his position in states like New Mexico and Washington, and bring Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota back into play. As I said yesterday, though, that would require a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the race. If McCain continues to do well, the Arizona senator could bring Wisconsin into play and increase his position in places like Florida, Nevada and Ohio. At the opening of this week, the latter seems more likely than the former. With Wall Street back in the news, though, increased focus on the economy would be a welcome change -- at least in the eyes of Democrats -- from the bounce and all other things McCain-Palin.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
North Dakota	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

At the opening of this week, the latter seems more likely than the former. With Wall Street back in the news, though, increased focus on the economy would be a welcome change -- at least in the eyes of Democrats -- from the bounce and all other things McCain-Palin.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/13/08)

Questions About the Current State of the Presidential Race