The Electoral College Map (9/26/08)

The way the polls came out on Thursday, you'd think the firms were all trying to get them released ahead of something. A debate, say. Regardless, there were 28 surveys in 16 states to pick through; enough that you could cherry-pick results if you wanted to. The problem was that McCain just didn't have that much to point to in the polls on a day where, at best, his arrival in Washington was ill-timed since it coincided with the perceived unraveling of the bailout deal. [Yeah, that's at best.]

New Polls (Sept. 25)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Public Mind	+18
Arkansas	Rasmussen	+9
California	PPIC	+10
California	Survey USA	+10
Delaware	Public Mind	+20
Delaware	Survey USA	+20
Maine	Survey USA	+5
Massachusetts	Survey USA	+16
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	+20
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	+10
Michigan	National Journal	+8
Michigan	Mason-Dixon	0
Michigan	Selzer	+13
Michigan	Strategic Vision	+3
Missouri	Survey USA	+2
New Hampshire	Strategic Vision	+1
New Hampshire	National Journal	+1
New Hampshire	Research 2000	+4
New York	Survey USA	+19
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+2
Ohio	Rasmussen	+1
Oregon	Survey USA	+11
Oregon	Research 2000	+14
Pennsylvania	Survey USA	+6
Pennsylvania	National Journal	+2
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+4
West Virginia	Rasmussen	+8
Wisconsin	Research 2000	+6

There was a lot of blue on the board today. And it stretched all the way into North Carolina, where 2 point Obama lead in the latest Rasmussen poll of the Tar Heel state brought the state's weighted average down to nearly four. And on the eve of moving the toss up/lean line down to 4 points, North Carolina and Missouri -- after a slim 2 point McCain lead emerged from the Survey USA poll -- are within range of actually staying within the toss up distinction. Both looked to be on the chopping block as recently as the beginning of the week, but both are less than a tenth of a point on the McCain side of 4 points. And speaking of that line (It will be shifted from 5 points to 4 point for tomorrow's update.), Michigan is within a tenth of a point of actually moving out of the toss up category when the line is at four. But that is more a discussion for tomorrow.

Changes (Sept. 25)
State	Before	After
Alaska	McCain lean	Strong McCain

While blue was the color of the day, it was actually in a red state where the day's sole category shift took place. Alaska moves back to a strong McCain state after some minor polling fluctuations triggered a quirk in the averages. [The 31 point margin in the Rasmussen poll of the Last Frontier immediately after the Republican convention overinflated the average. When it wasn't the poll receiving the extra weight, there was some regression to the mean. ] That has worked itself out now and Alaska is likely to stay a strong state for McCain now. I've said this a hundred times today and should probably heed my own advice: Never say never in this campaign. Regardless, I think we have a pretty good idea of the state of things on this one.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The end result is that the map doesn't fundamentally change in any way. The 273-265 electoral vote distribution still favors Obama, but there are three more electoral votes that move into safer McCain territory based on Alaska's shift. With that move there are now nearly an equal number of electoral votes in each of McCain's and Obama's strong categories. Obama, though, has an advantage in lean electoral votes while McCain currently has a lead in toss up electoral votes. And even with a rather large number of polls in three of the four Obama toss ups their ordering doesn't budge either. Michigan is still outside of Pennsylvania is still outside of Colorado is still outside of New Hampshire. The same can be said of the trio of closest McCain toss up states. But they -- Nevada, Ohio and Virginia -- are so close that one poll can make the difference in how they are aligned.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	TX-34 (152)	NE-5 (52)
MD-10 (24)	MN-10 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	AK-3 (118)	TN-11 (47)
IL-21 (45)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
CT-7 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
DE-3 (55)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
NY-31 (86)	WI-10 (222)	NC-15 (364/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
CA-55 (141)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (375/174)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (153)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Maine is doing its best Minnesota impression at the moment, drawing not as close as the North Star state, but closer all the same to competitiveness. It is now the least safe Obama strong state. But the Pine Tree state still is not close enough to be added to the Watch List. And is likely to remain safe, especially if the strong/lean line is shifted to a smaller margin as well. Other than Maine, Delaware is the only notable mover, moving off the list and much further in to safe Obama territory on the strength of a pair of 20 point poll margins. The First state jumped Maine, Massachusetts, California and New York to move into a tie with Connecticut.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

That said, if the lines were moved today -- to 4 for the toss up/lean line and 8 for the lean/strong line -- Missouri and North Carolina would become McCain lean, but only barely, and Washington and Oregon would become strong Obama states. As I said, Michigan is right there on that toss up/lean line and West Virginia's average is actually equal to the potential new lean/strong line value.

Now I'm anxious to go see the effect this new Rasmussen poll in Virginia has. I'll be back later this evening (post-debate with that update.)


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/08)

Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/08)

Well, nothing happened today, so I'm thinking of just suspending the electoral college analysis and taking a long weekend to gear up for and wind down from the debate. Huh? There may not be a debate? Eh, it'll never happen. But I would love to see the empty chair scenario play out if only because an absence from a presidential debate would be, well, unprecedented. The only thing that is for sure in this campaign now is that I'm done saying never.

Seriously, though, today the polling continued to provide us with a clearer picture of the state of the race...in some states. Colorado continues to move back toward Obama after having drawn closer following the Republican convention. And the wider gap in Washington gives the Illinois senator a bit more breathing room in the Evergreen state. One more double digit lead for Obama is likely to push Washington into strong status.

But a crazy political news day was marked by equally crazy polling. A trio of Obama toss ups all did their best John Kerry impressions, moving toward competitiveness before moving away from it. Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania had two polls apiece and each state's pair of polls contradicted each other. In Michigan, the average has been creeping up in recent days, so the CNN poll (+6 Obama) in the Wolverine state is in line with the other polls that make up that trend. However, that was balanced out by Market Research Group's poll that gave McCain the lead there for the first time in any poll since late May. Similarly, in the polls out of the Granite state, one favored McCain and one backed Obama. It was only yesterday that someone suggested that maybe New Hampshire was trending toward McCain based on only a couple of polls. I forget who that was, but I'm sure they got a laugh out of the size of Obama's margin in the Marist poll of the state, one in line with a certain CNN survey of the state in early September. The two results basically maintained the status quo. In Pennsylvania, the story was similar but not in the same way as in Michigan or New Hampshire. Both Keystone state polls out today gave Obama leads, but it is the size of those leads that is in question. CNN had it at 8 while Strategic Vision found a narrower one point gap. Is that CNN poll an outlier? Well in the context of the recent polling of Pennsylvania, it certainly looks like it. But we'll need more information to be sure.

New Polls (Sept. 24)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Rasmussen	+21
Colorado	Rasmussen	+3
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+9
Colorado	CNN	+4
Florida	Strategic Vision	+3
Hawaii	Rasmussen	+41
Iowa	Marist	+10
Maryland	Rasmussen	+23
Michigan	CNN	+6
Michigan	Market Research Group	+3
Montana	CNN	+9
Nevada	Project New West	+2
New Hampshire	Marist	+6
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	+2
Pennsylvania	CNN	+8
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+1
Rhode Island	Brown University	+13
South Carolina	Survey USA	+19
Virginia	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+3
Washington	Survey USA	+11
West Virginia	CNN	+5

And who needs polling from ultra-tight Nevada when you can get just the third poll from Hawaii. We've all been waiting so patiently. Let's just get this out in the open, there won't be any last minute trips to Hawaii by either of the vice presidential candidates because the state's margin has drawn closer. The Aloha state seems like a pretty good bet for Obama at this point. And hey, there was a poll in Nevada today. And it gave Obama a small edge in the state. But I'll have more about Nevada and the sporadic polling there in the morning.

Changes (Sept. 24)
State	Before	After
Montana	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
South Carolina	McCain lean	Strong McCain

I could go through the whole list of polls -- there are some good ones today -- but I'll spare you. All in all there was a general movement toward Obama, but the shifts on the map took place in red states. Montana, following the release of the CNN poll, shifted to a lean state for McCain, but only barely so. Montana is on par with Wisconsin as far as the size of each state's weighted average, but it doesn't really feel that way. That perception has a lot to do with recent presidential election history in both states. Wisconsin has been close and gone Democratic, while Montana has just been red. The other shift was in South Carolina. The Palmetto state has gone back and forth between strong and lean since late last week, but it just seems too red to be any more competitive than a strong McCain state at this point. There may be some subtle shifts, but this is likely where South Carolina ends up in 40 days. [I didn't say I was done making predictions, just that I was done saying never.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With those changes, the map gets a bit darker red, but the basic distribution of electoral votes remains the same. There are few scenarios where Obama needs either South Carolina or, more realistically, Montana to get to 270. McCain would have to swing Pennsylvania or Michigan in addition to his other states to make Montana consequential again...if it were to get closer. But if Obama is losing Pennsylvania or Michigan, he probably isn't winning Montana anyway.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	AK-3 (152)	NE-5 (52)
MD-10 (24)	MN-10 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	TX-34 (149)	TN-11 (47)
IL-21 (45)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
CT-7 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
CA-55 (107)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
NY-31 (138)	WI-10 (222)	NC-15 (364/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (375/174)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

There is some alteration to the map, then, but the same 273-265 Obama advantage emerges. But Montana and South Carolina move closer to the McCain end of the Electoral College Spectrum, but stay within striking distance of changing back as well. Other than that, Iowa jumps New Jersey and nearly Minnesota while Maryland becomes even more solidly Democratic. The election still hinges on Colorado and New Hampshire, but Colorado is moving toward Obama while New Hampshire is in a position just a little more than a point into Obama territory.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Finally, the Watch List adds Montana and South Carolina, but only Montana seems worthy of beign highlighted. It is the more competitive of the two and joins a small list of states either in or near switching to the toss up category.


Recent Posts:
Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The news of McCain's call to suspend the debate reminds me of a bit comedian, David Cross, did concerning the fallout from 9-11. Cross discussed how there were probably people in the aftermath of the attacks who were upset that football got canceled for a week. They may not have vocalized it, but there was probably some quiet discontent among a segment of the population. Well, political debates are certainly not to be equated with football, but to political junkies they may as well be one in the same.

Having said that, I'm still trying to sort out this McCain campaign suspension and the possibility of a debate delay. This obviously hasn't happened before. And as history (and Thomas Holbrook in Do Campaigns Matter?) would tell us, presidential election years rarely overlap with economic or military crises. But here we have one smack dab in the middle of what has already been an unprecedented presidential campaign. [Remember, if __________ can happen, then ____________ is more likely than ever to occur during this campaign. I joked a couple of weeks ago that we will see an electoral college tie and there will be a disputed state result simultaneously. This will trigger a battle between the legislative and judicial branches to decide the issue. I look forward to it.]

Here, though, are my instant history thoughts on this move by the McCain folks:

1) McCain once again has to do something to shake up the race. The Palin thing has faded with the focus shifted to the economy and the polls the last two days are favoring Obama in some of the critical battleground states.

2) This, to me, is a potential "damned if you do, damned if you don't" sort of proposition for Obama. If he stays committed to the debate, he can be cast as not caring about dealing with the economic crisis. If he goes along with McCain's wish, Obama will be the second person on the scene. In other words, he wouldn't look like much of a leader. My thinking here is that the McCain folks would once again try to craft a replay of some of the narrative surrounding Obama's trip abroad over the summer. Now, is this the way I expect this to play out? No, but the parallel did enter my mind. Which brings me to...

3) If this is politically motivated (I know, that never happens, especially in politics. Obama's trip, for instance, was just a fact-finding mission.), what does McCain expect get out of it? On the one hand, trying to push back the debate looks moderately defeatist. But on the other, focusing on the bailout issue, shows his willingness to take problems head on. Again, the leadership dimension. And I think that's where the answer lies. McCain = leader. Obama = follower. At least, that's the way they may try to spin it.

Thoughts? This one is a doozy.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

There's a lot of blue in the polls today. But there's good blue and bad blue. For Obama, there's good blue in states like Colorado, Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin, states vital to a coaltion that sums to 270 electoral votes. And that good blue still overshadows the continued bad blue that has become Minnesota. The North Star state is gradually working its way closer to competitiveness in our measures. The Pennsylvania poll from ARG is a status quo result. The four point margin is running a little above FHQ's average, but it is generally in line with other recent polling in the Keystone state.

New Polls (Sept. 23)
State	Poll	Margin
Arkansas	ARG	+12
California	Rasmussen	+17
Colorado	Quinnipiac	+4
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+7
Florida	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+2
Kansas	Rasmussen	+20
Kansas	Survey USA	+12
Kentucky	Survey USA	+19
Massachusetts	ARG	+16
Michigan	Quinnipiac	+4
Minnesota	Quinnipiac	+2
North Carolina	Civitas	0
Ohio	Insider Advantage	0
Oregon	ARG	+11
Pennsylvania	ARG	+4
Vermont	ARG	+18
Wisconsin	Quinnipiac	+7

For McCain, the polls were a ho-hum affair. Arkansas, Kansas and Kentucky are all safe states for the Arizona senator and none of the polls emerging from the three did anything to change that.

The real action in these polls isn't blue or red, though. Those two white cells in the table above indicate ties. Ohio being tied isn't all that surprising, but seeing North Carolina turn in a second consecutive poll knotted in a dead heat is indicative of a potential move within the Tar Heel state. Those three double digit McCain leads in North Carolina in the week following the Republican convention seem not only like distant memories, but like outliers as well in the current environment.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But if the ARG poll in Pennsylvania was a status quo result, this map is as well. Despite all that blue, there just wasn't any shake up on the map. And though states like Colorado, Oregon and Wisconsin moved even more toward Obama that movement doesn't even show up on the Electoral College Spectrum. What we do see there is Minnesota inching past Oregon closer to the toss up category. Minnesota made the switch from a strong Obama state to an Obama lean in mid-August and has since continued to draw closer, sliding nearly two and a half points in the weighted average since that time. That underscores the idea that it takes a series of polls to shift what has become an established electoral vote distribution between the candidates. While Minnesota's trajectory is toward competitiveness, our model treats that cautiously, not reacting quickly to the typical volatility that we see from day to day in the polls.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	MN-10 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
CA-55 (107)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
NY-31 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (367/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MO-11 (378/171)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Like Minnesota, the ties in North Carolina and Ohio nudge each closer to the partisan line (the point where McCain toss ups shift to Obama toss ups). North Carolina is still very much on the periphery of the toss up category, but if there is continued tight or tied polling that will change. Ohio is among the trio of pink states that is the closest of any of the states on either side of the partisan line. The dead heat in the Insider Advantage poll bumps the Buckeye state ahead of both Virginia and Nevada, but the truth is that all three are on the Watch List, within a fraction of a point of jumping the partisan line and turning blue.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Speaking of the Watch List, it remains unchanged from yesterday. Realistically, these ten states can be pared down to six by omitting the four states that are not in any way flirting with moving into or leaving the toss up distinction. And of those six, the states favoring McCain currently are on the verge of potentially moving toward Obama (literally, since the shift would mean those states would become Obama states), while the Obama states border on changes that would make them more competitive. The only exception overall is North Carolina. It is the only state that is favoring one of the candidates yet on the cusp of more intense support for that candidate (in this case McCain). Of course, with more tight results like we've seen the last few days, the Tar Heel state may move away from that distinction.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

The Electoral College from a Different Angle

The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

There's some good and some bad for each candidate in the polls out yesterday. Most of the good seems to be on Obama's side. There has been some contraction of the margins recently in states like Minnesota, New Mexico and New Jersey, but the surveys that were released just yesterday, showed some movement back toward Obama in each. The bad for the Illinois senator is that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin continue to get closer. Well, Wisconsin is in a holding pattern. The Badger state is close, but it is still hovering around the line between toss up and lean. In Pennsylvania, however, the gap continues to close. Without the Keystone state, the math for getting to 270 gets a bit tougher for Obama. Not insurmountable, but certainly more difficult.

New Polls (Sept. 22)
State	Poll	Margin likely/registered
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+5
Georgia	ARG	+18
Michigan	Rasmussen/FOX	+7
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+8
Nevada	Suffolk	+0.5
New Hampshire	Univ. of New Hampshire	+2
New Jersey	ARG	+9
New Mexico	Public Policy Polling	+11
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+3
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Oklahoma	Research 2000	+23
Pennsylvania	NBC/Mason-Dixon	+2
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen/FOX	+3
South Dakota	ARG	+16
Virginia	Survey USA	+6
Virginia	ABC/Washington Post	+5/+8
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Wisconsin	ARG	+5

For McCain, the good is that Florida and Ohio are like Wisconsin is to Obama: stuck in a close, but advantageous position for the Arizona senator. New Hampshire is also turning into a bright spot for the McCain campaign. A string of recent polling in the Granite state has shown the McCain-Palin ticket ahead. It is still within the margin of error, but the trend is a change from the narrow leads the state had given Obama up until this recent period. On the other hand, the margins in the peripheral South are narrowing. Both North Carolina and Virginia are seeing Obama make inroads in recent polling with Virginia offering some alarming numbers for the GOP. The commonwealth continues to favor McCain, but only barely. [For transparency's sake, one note that should be made is that I'm using the registered voters number from the ABC/WaPo poll. Please see the notes on upcoming changes at the end of the post for more.*] Nevada has been as close as any state with the exceptions of Ohio and sometimes Virginia, but the series of solid polling that McCain was able to put together following the Republican convention, has been replaced a much closer race according to the Suffolk survey of the Silver state.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But we have all those polls and there's no change to the map. Obama maintains a tenuous 273-265 lead over McCain. And that's a lead that's slight enough to underscore the importance of the Illinois senator defending Pennsylvania from the McCain campaign's efforts in the state. Without the Keystone state, Obama is staring at a Kerry-like deficit in the electoral college. In fact, if McCain is able to pick off Pennsylvania and win all the states in shades of red, he'll win by the same 286-252 electoral vote margin that George W. Bush won by four years ago. Talk about a "the more things change the more they stay the same" sort of scenario. Even if Obama were to win Virginia while McCain wins Pennsylvania, all that would do is reverse the tallies we have on the map above. If Florida and Ohio are cementing themselves as McCain states -- and there is some indication of that in today's Rasmussen polls in each state -- losing Pennsylvania means Obama would have to swing two of those other pink states not including Montana.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	MN-10 (178)	NV-5 (278/265)	SC-8 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	OR-7 (185)	VA-13 (291/260)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	OH-20 (311/247)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
NY-31 (83)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
CA-55 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (363/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	NC-15 (378/175)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

For now, however, Pennsylvania, while becoming more competitive, is still within Obama's coalition of states. There has been some shuffling among the swing states on both sides recently, but the volatility in the Obama lean state polls has triggered a constant shake up among those states. [And that is likely to continue for tonight's update. Several of those lean states are experiencing a simultaneous move toward Obama in the polls out so far today. But I wouldn't hint at anything to get you to come back later. No, that's not in my nature.] I've done a lot of talking about the near disappearance of the McCain lean states, but all the while the Obama lean states have been far more interesting. Across the board, those states have seen tighter polls in the post-convention environment.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

On the Watch List, we gain one, we lose one. Georgia is off the list and likely for good. A couple of weeks ago, we discussed the Obama campaign pulling resources out of the state to focus on more competitive states and that shift has been borne out in the polling coming out of Georgia since the conventions. Now we are seeing something similar in North Dakota. With the competition heating up in nearby Minnesota and Wisconsin, that is a move that makes sense for the Obama campaign. The side effect, though, is that North Dakota will likely continue to inch closer to safe territory for McCain and the internals in the Obama campaign likely show that already. On the strength of a couple of solid results in Virginia, the Old Dominion is back on the watch. This really isn't that much of a surprise. Those results are canceling out the larger margins McCain enjoyed in the state in the immediate aftermath of his convention in St. Paul.

Anyway, those are the states to watch for today. We already have a Quinnipiac survey from Wisconsin. So that's a start.


*Three switches that will be made this weekend following the first debate:
1) Dropping the Zogby Interactive data.
2) Lowering the Toss Up/Lean line (Lean/Strong line change still pending -- likely this weekend sometime)
3) Full time switch to "likely" voter poll results over registered voter data.

Recent Posts:
The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

The Electoral College from a Different Angle

About Those Zogby Interactive Polls...(The McCain Bounce Revisited)

The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

Recently, I posted links to Thomas Holbrook's convention bounce predictions and wrap up and now he is out with a look at debate effects. The conclusion? Individual debate effects are minimal, but the cumulative effect of the entire series of debates is where a difference can be made.

And the nightmare? Larry Sabato has an item up on the BBC discussing the possibility of an electoral college tie. [Yeah, Nancy Pelosi was surprised too. I couldn't not include that picture.] As far-fetched as the chance of a tie may seem, it as been increasing in likelihood as McCain has become more competitive in some state polls. Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are all narrowing currently and all are leaning toward Obama. As we've seen in the recent maps it won't take much to bring this about. If Obama wins all the current blue states but loses Colorado New Hampshire, then a 269-269 tie is the outcome. This was also made clear in the map that resulted from Scott's analysis of the Pollster averages. If Obama wins the blue states and New Mexico while McCain takes the red states and the remaining five toss ups, again a 269-269 tie is the result.

Fine, we can move states around to get the outcome we want -- a tie -- but what happens in case of a tie? Well, the tie doesn't go to the incumbent party. [And since, according to Sabato, 90% of Americans don't know about this contingency plan, Democrats not in the know just breathed a huge sigh of relief.] The decision on the presidency goes to the House for a vote by each state delegation (not individual members) and the VP choice goes to the Senate.

For more on how that may play out, check out FiveThirtyEight's look at the possibilites from back in May. The circumstances may have changed since then, but it is an excellent exercise in how this situation would work.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College from a Different Angle

About Those Zogby Interactive Polls...(The McCain Bounce Revisited)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)

The Electoral College from a Different Angle

The other day one of FHQ's loyal readers, SarahLawrenceScott, proposed an alternate way of looking at the presidential race and for mapping the trends to the electoral college. State-by-state trial-heat polls are still the data of choice, but what Scott has done is to set the lines of demarcation between different states based on the 50% threshold in Pollster's averages in the time since McCain became the presumptive Republican nominee following the March 4 contests.

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in Pollster's average in a state any reputable state poll?

If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott puts it:

"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."

He adds:

"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

So where do each of the states fall? Well, Scott provided us with a list, but that wasn't good enough for me. I like to see these things; preferably on a map. [As an aside, if Chad Johnson can legally change his name to Chad Ocho Cinco, then perhaps I should consider a new moniker myself. Josh Mapmaker, perhaps. Ooh, or the hyphenated version, Josh Map-Maker. But I digress...] Here's how the map looks:

[Click Map to Enlarge]

All of the toss up states (the states in white) have been or are toss up states by FHQ's estimate. The exception is West Virginia, where a large swath of undecideds continues to cloud the picture in the Mountain state. As Scott admits, though there is a caveat to the West Virginia result:

"It's true McCain broke 50 in late February, which is just before my cut-off, so it could easily be called a McCain lean. But still, I agree with Josh that Obama should have put some more resources there. Maybe it's not too late."

Hey, if you're the Obama campaign, sending in Bill and/or Hillary Clinton should be a top priority, strategically speaking. Clinton was the last Democrat to carry the state. Is it too late in West Virginia? I don't know, but any Obama effort there is akin to the efforts being made by the GOP to catch up in areas where they are lagging in the ground game. Improbable, but not necessarily impossible.

But how about the two distinctions Scott makes within the toss up category?

"Nevada and West Virginia fall in the first category [neither McCain nor Obama has reached 50% in individual polls]; Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire in the second [the 50% line was crossed by both candidates in individual polls but not in the Pollster average]. The first two may be toss-ups because they are underpolled. That second group of four are true battlegrounds--at some point, by some methodology, a poll suggested that each candidate had a victory in hand, regardless of how undecideds break. But Obama hasn't done that in Ohio since June, and McCain hasn't done that in New Mexico or New Hampshire since April. That would suggest that they have the potential to go to either candidate if circumstances changed, but if the election were held today, Ohio would be a McCain lean while New Mexico and New Hampshire would be Obama leans.

"That leaves Virginia. Virginia has had each candidate break 50 in the last week, and at least twice since the conventions. It has also had each candidate break 50 in polls from the same pollster: SurveyUSA. Under this way of looking at things, that makes Virginia ground zero, the one true, get-out-the-vote type neutral battleground. In 2000, it was Florida; in 2004, Ohio; this time, it's Virginia, as improbable as that would have sounded a year ago."

Finally, it is...

"[a]lso notable that Colorado is an Obama lean but New Mexico is a toss-up. Obama winning Colorado and losing New Mexico is not a popular parlay, but it's not out of the question.

"Those are the most notable surprises, although there are a few others that caught my eye (Maine and North Dakota are safe, New Jersey, Arkansas, and Washington not entirely so."

Of course, with the polling out over and since the weekend, Obama is right up against the 50% mark in New Mexico. And if Obama wins the blue states on the map above and adds New Mexico, that gets him to 269 electoral votes. The Illinois senator would be assured of at least a tie and would have to pick up any one of the remaining five white states to secure a victory. Conversely, McCain would have to sweep the toss up states on that map just to get to 274 electoral votes. And that is a tall order. Suddenly, McCain partisans are asking for the more palatable scenarios described on FHQ's standard map and Electoral College Spectrum.


Let me add a special note of thanks to Scott for a solid contribution to our efforts here at FHQ. This is a nice addition to our understanding of the direction of this campaign.


Recent Posts:
About Those Zogby Interactive Polls...(The McCain Bounce Revisited)

The Electoral College Map (9/22/08)

Today's Agenda