The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Another day, another 10 state polls. But it wasn't just any regular ol' day. The first presidential debate, like convention season, offered the potential for a shift in polling in this race. Over the next couple of weeks we'll see if and and how much change occurs. If last night is any indication of what's in store, then it likely won't be much. However, what we have in the beginning debate season in the 2008 presidential campaign is a natural break, from pre-debate to during debate. FHQ is taking advantage of that line of demarcation to make some slight changes to how we are describing the race.

For starters, we are shifting our lines between categories. So, the point at which a toss up becomes a lean state is now a margin of four points in our weighted average. That one point point drop is mirrored by an equivalent move the next category up. A strong state is now defined as any state where the weighted average is more than nine points.

FHQ will also take this opportunity to remove the ever-popular Zogby Interactive polls from our data set and to make a change from taking polls based on registered voters to those with likely voters. That latter decision has pretty much been made for us, as most of the polling firms -- and the outlets disseminating their survey results -- have made the switch already.

But back to the polls...

New Polls (Sept. 26)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	ARG	+3
Florida	Rasmussen	+1
Florida	ARG	+1
Missouri	Research 2000/St. Louis Dispatch	+1
Montana	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+13
New Hampshire	Suffolk	+1
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg	+4
South Carolina	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+15
Virginia	Rasmussen	+5
Wyoming	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+21

After a couple of days chock full of Obama-favorable polls, things came back a bit for McCain on Friday. Now, some of the Obama's advantage on Wednesday and Thursday was that the polling released was coming from a host of already blue states. McCain got some polls from some of his states on Friday. South Carolina and Wyoming are safe for the Arizona senator and door seems to have been closed on Obama in Montana. The Treasure state had showed Obama ahead in July, but that edge has dissipated with the GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee. On the Obama end of things, Rasmussen shows the Illinois senator ahead in Virginia. That is the third such poll for Obama in Virginia to give him an edge outside of the margin of error. And as a result, the Old Dominion is creeping back toward a tie both in our average and in relation to the margin of error.

The real mark of this set of polls is how close the other six are. And four of those polls are within a point, in either direction. There's a split decision in the two polls out of Florida, Missouri continues to narrow and the third one point margin in a week has been released from New Hampshire.

Changes (Sept. 26)
State	Before	After
North Carolina*	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
Washington*	Obama lean	Strong Obama
*Change brought about by shifting of the lean/strong and toss up/lean lines, not new polling.

But none of these new polls move any of the nine states into an alternate category. However, shifting the lines between the categories brought about a couple of changes. North Carolina now becomes a McCain lean just a day after it looked like the Tar Heel state might threaten to stay in toss up territory. Much of that is based on the removal of a trio of favorable polls from Zogby. North Carolina does stay within range of changing back, however, and the way polling in the Tar Heel state has gone over the last week, that is a distinct possibility. Also, Washington moves further into Obama's column, becoming a strong state again for the Illinois senator. The Evergreen state, like North Carolina, is still within the range, though, of switching back. The recent polling in the northwest has been a bit more muddled. Tighter, yes, but still favoring Obama.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

So a couple of midrange electoral vote states move into more comforable positions for their respective candidates. Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia get some company in that McCain lean category from North Carolina and Washington rejoins the group of strong Obama states. But neither move changes the distribution of electoral votes between McCain and Obama. The Illinois senator maintains the same eight electoral vote advantage he has held for the couple of weeks or so.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	KS-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	AR-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	AK-3 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	IA-7 (182)	VA-13 (291/260)	TX-34 (149)	TN-11 (47)
MD-10 (45)	MN-10 (192)	OH-20 (311/247)	GA-15 (115)	KY-8 (36)
DE-3 (48)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	SC-8 (100)	AL-9 (28)
CT-7 (55)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	WY-3 (19)
NY-31 (86)	WI-10 (222)	MO-11 (360/189)	MS-6 (89)	OK-7 (16)
CA-55 (141)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (178)	LA-9 (83)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (153)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	AZ-10 (74)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

What dropping the Zogby polls does do is shake up the Electoral College Spectrum and Watch List to some extent. Virginia jumps Ohio and North Carolina moves into the lean category, but other than those changes the toss ups states continue to be in the same positions. There are other subtle changes to the Spectrum, but Minnesota is the most notable one. The North Star state again moves closer to the toss up category based on a series a narrower and narrower polls in the state recently.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

But Minnesota is not in a position that an imminent change is upon us. What is striking about the states that are now on the Watch List is that other than Oregon and Washington, we are dealing with a series of states that are on the verge of either moving into or out of the toss up category. With the toss up/lean line now at four, there is a lot more potential for some action. However, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia remain the only three states anywhere close to crossing the partisan line into Obama's side. The point from the candidates' perspective, though, is that these toss up states are the ones that could easily shift as a group to one side or the other based on the momentum heading down the stretch. When John Zogby (Yes, that John Zogby.) spoke about the potential for a landslide increasing in the context of the current economic turmoil, this is how it would likely play out. As the Spectrum indicates, if one candidates captured the momentum heading into election day and was able to completely sweep the toss up states, that would net McCain 316 electoral votes and Obama 360 electoral votes. And given how close the last two presidential elections have been, both would likely be interpreted as landslides. Now, whether that happens, we'll see over the next five plus weeks.


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

Who You Callin' Underpolled?

Nothing to see here, folks.

Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

10:39pm: Alright, I'm retreating to the Electoral College lair to think about this one for a while.

10:37pm: And there's the handshake. That's a wrap.

10:34pm: McCain: Obama's stubbornness on the surge is akin to the Bush administration on other issues. I'm surprised that "he doesn't get it" hasn't made an appearance tonight...from either side.

10:33pm: Obama: Economic crisis is a national security issue.

10:32pm: Ooh, extra time.

10:31pm: I've been thinking about calling this a forgettable debate, but the Obama doesn't understand stuff proves that if you say something enough...

10:27pm: I'm not sure about this "reaching across the aisle" stuff from McCain. Have the last few days taught us nothing? What will he be able to reach across the aisle to do if he's elected?

10:25pm: Last question. Let's put it this way: There won't be a lot of back and forth on this one.

10:22pm: Obama from Russian oil fueling their government to alternative energy here in the US.

10:18pm: McCain continues to play the experience card. Now on Russia. Again, "I've been there," on Georgia.

10:12pm: "I'm not going to set the White House schedule. I don't even have a seal yet." Good one.

10:09pm: Is Obama's ability to pronounce these foreign names a good thing or a bad thing? Ahmadinejad, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. It is an interesting contrast between the two candidates, especially after McCain's issues getting Ahmadinejad out. How does that play into the Obama is a Muslim narrative.

10:08pm: Sitting down with leaders without pre-conditions. There's a blast from the past.

10:03pm: On to Iran.

10:00pm: Ugh, if you are going to add a personal story, you better know the name. McCain nailed his. Sure, it was the same one he's brought up in his acceptance speech, but still. Obama did not.

9:57pm: I think this not understanding thing has been talked about within the McCain campaign. Now on Pakistan, pre-Musharraf.

9:54pm: More on Obama not understanding from McCain. This time on Waziristan and Al Qeada.

9:45pm: McCain: "Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy." That one could bring some fireworks along the way.

9:40pm: McCain's on firmer ground on the surge.

9:38pm: On Guantanamo Bay? Mr. McCain, John Kerry is on the phone. He was against torture, before he was against for it.

9:34pm: Jim Lehrer is winning this debate so far. He's by far the most animated.

...trying to get either candidate to answer a question on scaled back spending in the face of the current economic climate.

9:33pm: "Using a hatchet where a scalpel is needed." A good line from Obama on a government spending freeze.

9:29pm: Ah, there's the first "most liberal senator" mention.

9:26pm: They've both warmed to this format now.

9:21pm: A lot of hand-raising from Obama on these McCain points on earmarks. Not Horshack-style hand-raising, but there's a pattern here on these split screens.

9:16 pm: Ooh, there's the first split screen (...on NBC). No sighing, no eye-rolling, just McCain writing at the moment.

9:13pm: Jim Lehrer is trying to turn this into a town hall meeting-lite. This is kind of weird. But the difference from four years ago is stark.

9:08pm: Shredding regulations. We may be hearing that lot from Obama. That's twice.

8:41pm: We are about fifteen minutes from go-time everyone. Elton John would have us believe that Saturday night's alright for fighting. We'll Friday night is fine by me, actually. And given the events of this week, we could see a real good one tonight.

First a quick review:
1) First debates are the most watched debates of any cycle.

2) Sit down debates are typically boring, highlighted by muted body language. Think Cheney-Lieberman. Well, that's an exaggeration.
Those look like podiums. I stand corrected.

3) If we can, let's try to get a variety to mediums represented here. Someone on C-SPAN, someone on the one of the major networks, someone online, etc. The first debate in 2004 had some different feeds floating around. C-SPAN had the non-speaking candidate's reactions at times, while most of the networks kept the camera trained on the speaker. The result was that people took away different impressions of the debate. Let's try to keep tabs on that tonight. I think I'm going to be on C-SPAN.

So we should have a lot of bored people watching tonight. I won't be one of them. So, turn on the set, open up a comment box and off we go.


Recent Posts:
Who You Callin' Underpolled?

Nothing to see here, folks.

The Electoral College Map (9/26/08)

Who You Callin' Underpolled?

Just last month FHQ took a look at the relationship between the competitiveness of a state -- as measured by our weighted average -- and the frequency of polling in that state. The expectation is that the more hotly contested a race is in a particular state, the more apt we are to see a higher number of polls. The regression of this relationship (with the state's number of electoral votes thrown in as a control) explains just under 60% of the variation that we see in the number of polls from state to state. More than that, though, it allows us to predict where a state should be in terms of the number of polls given both its competitiveness and number of electoral votes.

[Click Graph to Enlarge]

In other words, that provides an indication of whether a state has been overpolled -- a concept I don't personally believe in -- and states that are underpolled. Ah, now there is something that is of interest. But there has been an awful lot of polling conducted between last month prior to the conventions and now, at the outset of debate season. The same cast of characters is still there though. Among the toss up states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are getting polled more than any other state. And that has a lot to do with the head start each had. The advantage each had last month is still there and even augmented now. However, close states like Nevada and Indiana continue to be underpolled in light of how tight they are. New Hampshire, New Mexico and Missouri are also just under where we would expect them to be given their levels of competitiveness.

There's been a lot of talk about why it is that Nevada is underpolled. It has been said that the Silver state is notoriously hard to poll. But why? Well, fortunately FHQ has someone on the inside to help us all understand the polling situation in Nevada. The other day I spoke with David Damore from the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. Dave has stopped by here on occasion to comment on topics relating to Nevada, especially during primary season. So I put the question to him and here is what he had to say on the matter:

"There are a couple of things going on here. First, there is not an entity akin to say the California Field Poll in the state that consistently polls. Thus, what we get is a hodgepodge of polls done by the two biggest papers in the state (Las Vegas Review Journal and the Reno Gazette Journal) and whatever national firms take an interest (which tends to be pretty sporadic). I do not know much about the RGJ polling process, but from what I can glean from the RJ methods is that they are not good. They typically use small samples, which yield large margins of errors and they over sample rural Nevada intentionally because the rurals tend to have higher voter turnout, but of course vote 4 to 1 in favor of the GOP, so their polls always have about a four or five percent pro-GOP bias. For instance, a couple of days before the 2004 election the RJ had a poll with Bush up around five points. At the time I was on a radio program with the Kerry guy in NV and their polls had the state dead even.

"The second big issue is finding the voters. In particular, Las Vegas is a very transient place and pretty much anyone under 30 is cell phone only. This latter group is not included in any of the sampling frames and given that they lean overwhelmingly Democratic, they are missed. This is my guess as to why the latest NV polls are favoring McCain; a dynamic that is at odds with what is happening on the ground here."

Now, what is Indiana's excuse?


Recent Posts:
Nothing to see here, folks.

The Electoral College Map (9/26/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/08)

Nothing to see here, folks.

The Debate is Back On!

The big question: Did this lower the expectations any for McCain?

Secondary question: Was that the goal?

Talk amongst yourselves while I update the electoral college post for today. I'll be back shortly.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/26/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/08)

Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The Electoral College Map (9/26/08)

The way the polls came out on Thursday, you'd think the firms were all trying to get them released ahead of something. A debate, say. Regardless, there were 28 surveys in 16 states to pick through; enough that you could cherry-pick results if you wanted to. The problem was that McCain just didn't have that much to point to in the polls on a day where, at best, his arrival in Washington was ill-timed since it coincided with the perceived unraveling of the bailout deal. [Yeah, that's at best.]

New Polls (Sept. 25)
State	Poll	Margin
Alaska	Public Mind	+18
Arkansas	Rasmussen	+9
California	PPIC	+10
California	Survey USA	+10
Delaware	Public Mind	+20
Delaware	Survey USA	+20
Maine	Survey USA	+5
Massachusetts	Survey USA	+16
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	+20
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	+10
Michigan	National Journal	+8
Michigan	Mason-Dixon	0
Michigan	Selzer	+13
Michigan	Strategic Vision	+3
Missouri	Survey USA	+2
New Hampshire	Strategic Vision	+1
New Hampshire	National Journal	+1
New Hampshire	Research 2000	+4
New York	Survey USA	+19
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+2
Ohio	Rasmussen	+1
Oregon	Survey USA	+11
Oregon	Research 2000	+14
Pennsylvania	Survey USA	+6
Pennsylvania	National Journal	+2
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+4
West Virginia	Rasmussen	+8
Wisconsin	Research 2000	+6

There was a lot of blue on the board today. And it stretched all the way into North Carolina, where 2 point Obama lead in the latest Rasmussen poll of the Tar Heel state brought the state's weighted average down to nearly four. And on the eve of moving the toss up/lean line down to 4 points, North Carolina and Missouri -- after a slim 2 point McCain lead emerged from the Survey USA poll -- are within range of actually staying within the toss up distinction. Both looked to be on the chopping block as recently as the beginning of the week, but both are less than a tenth of a point on the McCain side of 4 points. And speaking of that line (It will be shifted from 5 points to 4 point for tomorrow's update.), Michigan is within a tenth of a point of actually moving out of the toss up category when the line is at four. But that is more a discussion for tomorrow.

Changes (Sept. 25)
State	Before	After
Alaska	McCain lean	Strong McCain

While blue was the color of the day, it was actually in a red state where the day's sole category shift took place. Alaska moves back to a strong McCain state after some minor polling fluctuations triggered a quirk in the averages. [The 31 point margin in the Rasmussen poll of the Last Frontier immediately after the Republican convention overinflated the average. When it wasn't the poll receiving the extra weight, there was some regression to the mean. ] That has worked itself out now and Alaska is likely to stay a strong state for McCain now. I've said this a hundred times today and should probably heed my own advice: Never say never in this campaign. Regardless, I think we have a pretty good idea of the state of things on this one.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The end result is that the map doesn't fundamentally change in any way. The 273-265 electoral vote distribution still favors Obama, but there are three more electoral votes that move into safer McCain territory based on Alaska's shift. With that move there are now nearly an equal number of electoral votes in each of McCain's and Obama's strong categories. Obama, though, has an advantage in lean electoral votes while McCain currently has a lead in toss up electoral votes. And even with a rather large number of polls in three of the four Obama toss ups their ordering doesn't budge either. Michigan is still outside of Pennsylvania is still outside of Colorado is still outside of New Hampshire. The same can be said of the trio of closest McCain toss up states. But they -- Nevada, Ohio and Virginia -- are so close that one poll can make the difference in how they are aligned.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	TX-34 (152)	NE-5 (52)
MD-10 (24)	MN-10 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	AK-3 (118)	TN-11 (47)
IL-21 (45)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
CT-7 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
DE-3 (55)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
NY-31 (86)	WI-10 (222)	NC-15 (364/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
CA-55 (141)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (375/174)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (153)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan and New Mexico), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Maine is doing its best Minnesota impression at the moment, drawing not as close as the North Star state, but closer all the same to competitiveness. It is now the least safe Obama strong state. But the Pine Tree state still is not close enough to be added to the Watch List. And is likely to remain safe, especially if the strong/lean line is shifted to a smaller margin as well. Other than Maine, Delaware is the only notable mover, moving off the list and much further in to safe Obama territory on the strength of a pair of 20 point poll margins. The First state jumped Maine, Massachusetts, California and New York to move into a tie with Connecticut.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

That said, if the lines were moved today -- to 4 for the toss up/lean line and 8 for the lean/strong line -- Missouri and North Carolina would become McCain lean, but only barely, and Washington and Oregon would become strong Obama states. As I said, Michigan is right there on that toss up/lean line and West Virginia's average is actually equal to the potential new lean/strong line value.

Now I'm anxious to go see the effect this new Rasmussen poll in Virginia has. I'll be back later this evening (post-debate with that update.)


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/08)

Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/25/08)

Well, nothing happened today, so I'm thinking of just suspending the electoral college analysis and taking a long weekend to gear up for and wind down from the debate. Huh? There may not be a debate? Eh, it'll never happen. But I would love to see the empty chair scenario play out if only because an absence from a presidential debate would be, well, unprecedented. The only thing that is for sure in this campaign now is that I'm done saying never.

Seriously, though, today the polling continued to provide us with a clearer picture of the state of the race...in some states. Colorado continues to move back toward Obama after having drawn closer following the Republican convention. And the wider gap in Washington gives the Illinois senator a bit more breathing room in the Evergreen state. One more double digit lead for Obama is likely to push Washington into strong status.

But a crazy political news day was marked by equally crazy polling. A trio of Obama toss ups all did their best John Kerry impressions, moving toward competitiveness before moving away from it. Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania had two polls apiece and each state's pair of polls contradicted each other. In Michigan, the average has been creeping up in recent days, so the CNN poll (+6 Obama) in the Wolverine state is in line with the other polls that make up that trend. However, that was balanced out by Market Research Group's poll that gave McCain the lead there for the first time in any poll since late May. Similarly, in the polls out of the Granite state, one favored McCain and one backed Obama. It was only yesterday that someone suggested that maybe New Hampshire was trending toward McCain based on only a couple of polls. I forget who that was, but I'm sure they got a laugh out of the size of Obama's margin in the Marist poll of the state, one in line with a certain CNN survey of the state in early September. The two results basically maintained the status quo. In Pennsylvania, the story was similar but not in the same way as in Michigan or New Hampshire. Both Keystone state polls out today gave Obama leads, but it is the size of those leads that is in question. CNN had it at 8 while Strategic Vision found a narrower one point gap. Is that CNN poll an outlier? Well in the context of the recent polling of Pennsylvania, it certainly looks like it. But we'll need more information to be sure.

New Polls (Sept. 24)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Rasmussen	+21
Colorado	Rasmussen	+3
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+9
Colorado	CNN	+4
Florida	Strategic Vision	+3
Hawaii	Rasmussen	+41
Iowa	Marist	+10
Maryland	Rasmussen	+23
Michigan	CNN	+6
Michigan	Market Research Group	+3
Montana	CNN	+9
Nevada	Project New West	+2
New Hampshire	Marist	+6
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	+2
Pennsylvania	CNN	+8
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+1
Rhode Island	Brown University	+13
South Carolina	Survey USA	+19
Virginia	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+3
Washington	Survey USA	+11
West Virginia	CNN	+5

And who needs polling from ultra-tight Nevada when you can get just the third poll from Hawaii. We've all been waiting so patiently. Let's just get this out in the open, there won't be any last minute trips to Hawaii by either of the vice presidential candidates because the state's margin has drawn closer. The Aloha state seems like a pretty good bet for Obama at this point. And hey, there was a poll in Nevada today. And it gave Obama a small edge in the state. But I'll have more about Nevada and the sporadic polling there in the morning.

Changes (Sept. 24)
State	Before	After
Montana	Toss Up McCain	McCain lean
South Carolina	McCain lean	Strong McCain

I could go through the whole list of polls -- there are some good ones today -- but I'll spare you. All in all there was a general movement toward Obama, but the shifts on the map took place in red states. Montana, following the release of the CNN poll, shifted to a lean state for McCain, but only barely so. Montana is on par with Wisconsin as far as the size of each state's weighted average, but it doesn't really feel that way. That perception has a lot to do with recent presidential election history in both states. Wisconsin has been close and gone Democratic, while Montana has just been red. The other shift was in South Carolina. The Palmetto state has gone back and forth between strong and lean since late last week, but it just seems too red to be any more competitive than a strong McCain state at this point. There may be some subtle shifts, but this is likely where South Carolina ends up in 40 days. [I didn't say I was done making predictions, just that I was done saying never.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With those changes, the map gets a bit darker red, but the basic distribution of electoral votes remains the same. There are few scenarios where Obama needs either South Carolina or, more realistically, Montana to get to 270. McCain would have to swing Pennsylvania or Michigan in addition to his other states to make Montana consequential again...if it were to get closer. But if Obama is losing Pennsylvania or Michigan, he probably isn't winning Montana anyway.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	NV-5 (278/265)	AK-3 (152)	NE-5 (52)
MD-10 (24)	MN-10 (185)	OH-20 (298/260)	TX-34 (149)	TN-11 (47)
IL-21 (45)	IA-7 (192)	VA-13 (311/240)	SC-8 (115)	KY-8 (36)
CT-7 (52)	NJ-15 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
CA-55 (107)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
NY-31 (138)	WI-10 (222)	NC-15 (364/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	MO-11 (375/174)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MT-3 (163)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

There is some alteration to the map, then, but the same 273-265 Obama advantage emerges. But Montana and South Carolina move closer to the McCain end of the Electoral College Spectrum, but stay within striking distance of changing back as well. Other than that, Iowa jumps New Jersey and nearly Minnesota while Maryland becomes even more solidly Democratic. The election still hinges on Colorado and New Hampshire, but Colorado is moving toward Obama while New Hampshire is in a position just a little more than a point into Obama territory.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
South Carolina	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Finally, the Watch List adds Montana and South Carolina, but only Montana seems worthy of beign highlighted. It is the more competitive of the two and joins a small list of states either in or near switching to the toss up category.


Recent Posts:
Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

Now They're Trying to Take Away My Debate!?!

The news of McCain's call to suspend the debate reminds me of a bit comedian, David Cross, did concerning the fallout from 9-11. Cross discussed how there were probably people in the aftermath of the attacks who were upset that football got canceled for a week. They may not have vocalized it, but there was probably some quiet discontent among a segment of the population. Well, political debates are certainly not to be equated with football, but to political junkies they may as well be one in the same.

Having said that, I'm still trying to sort out this McCain campaign suspension and the possibility of a debate delay. This obviously hasn't happened before. And as history (and Thomas Holbrook in Do Campaigns Matter?) would tell us, presidential election years rarely overlap with economic or military crises. But here we have one smack dab in the middle of what has already been an unprecedented presidential campaign. [Remember, if __________ can happen, then ____________ is more likely than ever to occur during this campaign. I joked a couple of weeks ago that we will see an electoral college tie and there will be a disputed state result simultaneously. This will trigger a battle between the legislative and judicial branches to decide the issue. I look forward to it.]

Here, though, are my instant history thoughts on this move by the McCain folks:

1) McCain once again has to do something to shake up the race. The Palin thing has faded with the focus shifted to the economy and the polls the last two days are favoring Obama in some of the critical battleground states.

2) This, to me, is a potential "damned if you do, damned if you don't" sort of proposition for Obama. If he stays committed to the debate, he can be cast as not caring about dealing with the economic crisis. If he goes along with McCain's wish, Obama will be the second person on the scene. In other words, he wouldn't look like much of a leader. My thinking here is that the McCain folks would once again try to craft a replay of some of the narrative surrounding Obama's trip abroad over the summer. Now, is this the way I expect this to play out? No, but the parallel did enter my mind. Which brings me to...

3) If this is politically motivated (I know, that never happens, especially in politics. Obama's trip, for instance, was just a fact-finding mission.), what does McCain expect get out of it? On the one hand, trying to push back the debate looks moderately defeatist. But on the other, focusing on the bailout issue, shows his willingness to take problems head on. Again, the leadership dimension. And I think that's where the answer lies. McCain = leader. Obama = follower. At least, that's the way they may try to spin it.

Thoughts? This one is a doozy.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

The Electoral College Map (9/24/08)

There's a lot of blue in the polls today. But there's good blue and bad blue. For Obama, there's good blue in states like Colorado, Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin, states vital to a coaltion that sums to 270 electoral votes. And that good blue still overshadows the continued bad blue that has become Minnesota. The North Star state is gradually working its way closer to competitiveness in our measures. The Pennsylvania poll from ARG is a status quo result. The four point margin is running a little above FHQ's average, but it is generally in line with other recent polling in the Keystone state.

New Polls (Sept. 23)
State	Poll	Margin
Arkansas	ARG	+12
California	Rasmussen	+17
Colorado	Quinnipiac	+4
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+7
Florida	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+2
Kansas	Rasmussen	+20
Kansas	Survey USA	+12
Kentucky	Survey USA	+19
Massachusetts	ARG	+16
Michigan	Quinnipiac	+4
Minnesota	Quinnipiac	+2
North Carolina	Civitas	0
Ohio	Insider Advantage	0
Oregon	ARG	+11
Pennsylvania	ARG	+4
Vermont	ARG	+18
Wisconsin	Quinnipiac	+7

For McCain, the polls were a ho-hum affair. Arkansas, Kansas and Kentucky are all safe states for the Arizona senator and none of the polls emerging from the three did anything to change that.

The real action in these polls isn't blue or red, though. Those two white cells in the table above indicate ties. Ohio being tied isn't all that surprising, but seeing North Carolina turn in a second consecutive poll knotted in a dead heat is indicative of a potential move within the Tar Heel state. Those three double digit McCain leads in North Carolina in the week following the Republican convention seem not only like distant memories, but like outliers as well in the current environment.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But if the ARG poll in Pennsylvania was a status quo result, this map is as well. Despite all that blue, there just wasn't any shake up on the map. And though states like Colorado, Oregon and Wisconsin moved even more toward Obama that movement doesn't even show up on the Electoral College Spectrum. What we do see there is Minnesota inching past Oregon closer to the toss up category. Minnesota made the switch from a strong Obama state to an Obama lean in mid-August and has since continued to draw closer, sliding nearly two and a half points in the weighted average since that time. That underscores the idea that it takes a series of polls to shift what has become an established electoral vote distribution between the candidates. While Minnesota's trajectory is toward competitiveness, our model treats that cautiously, not reacting quickly to the typical volatility that we see from day to day in the polls.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	DE-3 (157)	CO-9*** (269/278)	ND-3 (160)	AR-6 (64)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	NH-4*** (273/269)	WV-5 (157)	KS-6 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	OH-20 (293/265)	SC-8 (152)	NE-5 (52)
IL-21 (35)	MN-10 (185)	NV-5 (298/245)	AK-3 (144)	TN-11 (47)
CT-7 (42)	NJ-15 (200)	VA-13 (311/240)	TX-34 (141)	KY-8 (36)
MD-10 (52)	IA-7 (207)	IN-11 (322/227)	GA-15 (107)	AL-9 (28)
CA-55 (107)	NM-5 (212)	FL-27 (349/216)	SD-3 (92)	OK-7 (19)
NY-31 (138)	WI-10 (222)	MT-3 (352/189)	AZ-10 (89)	WY-3 (12)
ME-4 (142)	MI-17 (239/316)	NC-15 (367/186)	MS-6 (79)	ID-4 (9)
MA-12 (154)	PA-21 (260/299)	MO-11 (378/171)	LA-9 (73)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Like Minnesota, the ties in North Carolina and Ohio nudge each closer to the partisan line (the point where McCain toss ups shift to Obama toss ups). North Carolina is still very much on the periphery of the toss up category, but if there is continued tight or tied polling that will change. Ohio is among the trio of pink states that is the closest of any of the states on either side of the partisan line. The dead heat in the Insider Advantage poll bumps the Buckeye state ahead of both Virginia and Nevada, but the truth is that all three are on the Watch List, within a fraction of a point of jumping the partisan line and turning blue.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Alaska	from McCain lean	to Strong McCain
Delaware	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Nevada	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Texas	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Virginia	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Washington	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Wisconsin	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Speaking of the Watch List, it remains unchanged from yesterday. Realistically, these ten states can be pared down to six by omitting the four states that are not in any way flirting with moving into or leaving the toss up distinction. And of those six, the states favoring McCain currently are on the verge of potentially moving toward Obama (literally, since the shift would mean those states would become Obama states), while the Obama states border on changes that would make them more competitive. The only exception overall is North Carolina. It is the only state that is favoring one of the candidates yet on the cusp of more intense support for that candidate (in this case McCain). Of course, with more tight results like we've seen the last few days, the Tar Heel state may move away from that distinction.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/23/08)

The Links (9/23/08): Debates and Nightmares

The Electoral College from a Different Angle