Thursday, October 2, 2008

Cracking the Muhlenberg Code

Why do the polling firms conducting daily tracking polls not release the results of the individual days along with the rolling averages they are producing? Ah, wouldn't it be nice. In reality, they don't and that leaves people like me wondering about how to go about determining what those numbers are. As the good folks at FiveThirtyEight showed, however, it is an inexact science that just has too many unknowns to definitively determine that data. What they looked at was the national trackers. But what I'm more interested in are the state level daily trackers. We only have one so far and it is the poll conducted by the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College along with Morning Call. So, what do we know and what don't we know?

[Click Figure to Enlarge]

Above you'll see, from the Institute itself, the results from each of the first six days of the tracking poll in question. Now, to keep things simple, we'll focus just on margins and not each candidate's percentage. The latter just replaces one unknown with two more and that muddies the picture that much more. What we see, though, is that the margin increases by one for each of the first five days of the five day rolling average. That tells us that for each of those days the new data coming into the average (an additional days worth of data) has a margin that is about five points greater than the day that is being subtracted from the rolling average.

Huh? How do you know that? Well, each new release has five different days worth of polling. For instance the first release last Friday found that between the dates of September 21 and September 25 Obama averaged a four point lead over McCain. We know that the sum total of those five polls is somewhere around 20 (5 polls X 4 point margin). [I continue to say "around" because we are dealing with rounded numbers here. Again, that is another way in which this examination is oversimplified, but it is the information we have available to us.] If the average increases to five, then we know that that total increases to 25 (5 polls X 5 point margin). And as that one point increase pattern continues, you simply add five more points to the average until things either level off or drop.

If we assume that each of those days in the first poll released last Friday had the exact same result, then we would see something like this:

Muhlenberg Tracking Polls - PA (Oct. 1):
Scenario #1

Date
Polls
2122
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
#1
4
4
4
4
4





#2

4
4
4
4
9




#3


4
4
4
9
9



#4



4
4
9
9
9


#5




4
9
9
9
9

#6





9
9
9
9
-1

So if every day in the original poll found Obama to be up four, he would have to be up nine on the sixth day when the first day's four point margin is phased out. We can continue that replacement and it looks just fine until you get to yesterday's poll, when the margin dropped by one. Not only does the above hypothetical assume things into simpliticity, it is also probably unrealistic. I think it is unlikely that there was a McCain blip in there, as the -1 would imply.

It is not unrealistic, then, to forcibly constrain things to the Obama side of the ledger. But what that tell us is that, if the original average was four points and if there was a drop in the margin yesterday, then there must have been an inflated number on the last day (September 25) of the initial poll. That would be the day that was phased out in the data that the Institute released yesterday. To frame this slightly differently, there was likely something of an established pattern to the data from September 21-24, but the data from the 25th was a significant departure from that pattern, one that altered things thereafter. Below, I think, is a good guess as to how things may have looked over the course of the first ten days of the tracking poll.

Muhlenberg Tracking Polls - PA (Oct. 1):
Scenario #2

Date
Polls
2122
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
#1
2
3
2
3
10





#2

3
2
2
10
7




#3


2
3
10
7
8



#4



3
10
7
8
7


#5




10
7
8
7
8

#6





7
8
7
8
5

We know that since there was a one point drop in the margin yesterday, that there was around a five point drop in the total of all five days' polls. When we additionally factor in the fact that there was a drop, but one that still showed a pretty good lead for Obama, you get a pattern similar to what is depicted above. Things were close and then, suddenly, they weren't.

Is this right? I don't know. As I said this is just a guess. More importantly, how is FHQ going to deal with the data from Muhlenberg? We are, like what is being done at Electoral-Vote.com, going to take one poll every six days. That way no one day in this series of surveys is being counted more than once. The first poll Muhlenberg released covered September 21-25. We would take that poll and then the one where the 25th is phased out of the average (the poll covering September 26-30). That decision was reflected in last night's update of the map.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/2/08)

Here's the Deal...

The Electoral College Map (10/1/08)

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/2/08)

Who says change can't happen, even at the site with the most conservative electoral college methodology? I find it somewhat ironic that I, just yesterday, made light of the feasibility of a 10 point Obama margin in Virginia and today that exact number appeared in the CNN survey results. There's no sense in hiding that. Virginia switched sides, moving above the partisan line (The point at which light blue Obama states become pink McCain states.) into Obama territory. But that wasn't all. CNN caused quite a shake up across the analysis with new polls in a series of states. Virginia was one, but Nevada was the other. [Minnesota was in there too, but it didn't switch categories in the way Nevada did as a result of the survey there being added to FHQ's weighted averages.] On the strength of a five point margin in that poll, the Silver state, too, inches above that partisan line and into the blue, passing Virginia in the process. That leaves the Old Dominion as the closest state still, but we'll get to the Electoral College Spectrum momentarily.

New Polls (Oct. 1)
StatePollMargin
Arizona
ASU/Cronkite
+7
Connecticut
Pulsar
+14
Florida
Quinnipiac (pre-debate)
+6
Florida
Quinnipiac (post-debate)
+8
Florida
Suffolk
+4
Florida
CNN
+8
Indiana
Research 2000
+1
Iowa
Research 2000
+16
Minnesota
CNN
+12
Mississippi
Rasmussen
+8
Missouri
CNN
+1
Nevada
CNN
+5
New Jersey
Strategic Vision
+9
Ohio
Quinnipiac (pre-debate)
+7
Ohio
Quinnipiac (post-debate)
+8
Oklahoma
Survey USA
+30
Pennsylvania
Franklin & Marshall
+5
PennsylvaniaQuinnipiac (pre-debate)
+6
PennsylvaniaQuinnipiac (post-debate)
+15
PennsylvaniaMuhlenberg
+7
Tennessee
Rasmussen
+19
Texas
Rasmussen
+9
Virginia
CNN
+10
Wisconsin
Strategic Vision
+9

The rest of the polling out today wasn't much better for John McCain. Four new polls in both Florida and Pennsylvania all favored Obama and by pretty sizable margins. Half of those polls were the pre- and post-debate surveys from Quinnipiac. All had already shifted toward Obama prior to Friday night and those gaps grew larger afterward. This held true in the other state covered by Quinnipiac as well, Ohio. The Buckeye state, though, held firm just slightly on the McCain side of the partisan line.

Changes (Oct. 1)
StateBeforeAfter
Nevada
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama
Virginia
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama

But Indiana and Missouri drew closer too and Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin all moved farther away from the Arizona senator. Even Mississippi and Texas turned in tighter results, though, not to the point that either will become competitive. At the end of the day, all McCain has to hand his hat on today are the polls in Oklahoma and Tennessee. Neither of those state has had the type of single digit margins that Mississippi and Texas have had over the course of this campaign. They were never in doubt.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The map, then, changes for the first time since Nevada moved over into McCain's column following the Republican's convention in St. Paul. With the addition of Nevada and Virginia, Obama now pads that paltry 8 point advantage he held with 18 more electoral votes. The edge the Illinois senator has is now up to 44, much further below some of the other electoral college estimates out there. But, to be honest, all of the pink states are now within the margin of error and are technically in play. Even if FHQ has lowered the toss up/lean line down to 3 points last week, all of those McCain toss ups would be under that line with the exception of Missouri. So while none of those states are likely to change, they have slipped away from McCain and within Obama's grasp, both in reality and in the perception game.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
TX-34
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
OR-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
AK-3
(118)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
MS-6
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
NM-5
(212)
IN-11
(349/200)
SC-8
(94)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
SD-3
(86)
ID-4
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
OK-7
(12)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

For the first time in a while then the partisan line and the victory line (the point at which either candidate would surpass 270 electoral votes) aren't right up against each other. That cushion that we referenced so many times in discussing the likelihood of Obama has returned. And, as was so often mentioned in that context, the number of paths Obama has to 270 is greater as a result. The Illinois senator once again has states to give. In other words, he could lose both of the two states in which he just pulled ahead and still get to 270.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Iowafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Minnesotafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obamato Toss Up McCain
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Texasfrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The big question now: Which state is next? Well, it isn't assured that Nevada and Virginia will hold their current positions, so they could shift back toward McCain. But that seems less likely in the current environment where Obama is surging in the polls both nationally and on the state level. What we do know is that Florida and Indiana are now off the Watch List and have been replaced by Iowa, Minnesota and Texas. For the moment, let's excluded Texas; the Lone Star state isn't going anywhere. The other four have moved significantly toward Obama based on today's and other recent polling. Iowa and Minnesota are safer for Obama and Florida and Indiana are much less safe for McCain than they were.

Bad continues to get worse for McCain.


Recent Posts:
Here's the Deal...

The Electoral College Map (10/1/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/08)

Here's the Deal...

Alright folks. This is a change election, or so I've been told, and to have an electoral college analysis that does not respond well to changes in polling, is not necessarily a plus. I can see the writing on the wall and have now for a few days.

So here's the plan, both short and long term.

Tonight, I'll update the map as if there was no change to the formula and then have a few words to say in a separate post about the Muhlenberg polling discussion that sprang out of last night's update. It will likely not be tonight, but tomorrow I will revise the formula behind the map and see if we can kick start things around here.

Now the big question now is, well, why didn't you make this change after McCain's convention in St. Paul? Things were moving in his direction then. Why favor Obama with a change to the formula now? These are all valid and good questions. [I should have thought of them myself.] The reason is that conventions are part of what Jim Campbell would call the predictable campaign. We expected McCain to get at least something of a bounce out of the convention. The average's job in that scenario wasn't to mute the shift toward McCain, but to account for the likely temporary nature of the fluctuation. What we are witnessing now in the polls is something different and the mountain of past polls in our data set are too much of an anchor on the new -- and different -- data we now have. In other words, some revision is necessary to capture the true nature of the change. Whereas the convention bounce was temporary, the movement now likely isn't.

I'll be back shortly. I need to add in the afternoon polls to the averages.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/1/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/1/08)

September closes with a lot of red on the map, but unfortunately for John McCain none of that red comes in any state that isn't already favoring him in FHQ's weighted averages. And the blue comes places the Arizona senator absolutely cannot yield. But that's pretty much par for the course for the Republican's 2008 standard bearer over the last couple of weeks. So while seven of the eleven polls released today favored McCain, they did little more than stanch the flow of blood. No, I don't think McCain is necessarily out of it, but as we have discussed here over the last few days, it is becoming harder and harder to come up with scenarios where he pulls this thing out on November 4.

New Polls (Sept. 30)
StatePollMargin
Arizona
Rasmussen
+21
Florida
Public Policy Polling
+3
Georgia
Survey USA
+8
Indiana
Survey USA
+3
Nevada
ARG
+2
North Carolina
ARG
+3
Ohio
Survey USA
+1
Ohio
Insider Advantage
+2
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg
+8
Virginia
ARG
+3
Virginia
Insider Advantage
+6

With that said, McCain seems to have wrapped up his home state of Arizona; not that it was ever really in doubt. There was a stretch over the summer where there were a series of upper single digit polls from the Grand Canyon state, but that was never meant to be. But that wasn't really where the news of the day came from. In the crucial states of Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, McCain received some well needed polling, sweeping the four polls but with margins still within the margin of error. The bad news is that Florida continues to tighten and Pennsylvania keeps slipping away. McCain cannot, in most cases, lose Florida and still win. There are scenarios out there, but their likelihood is near zero at this point -- especially with Michigan and Pennsylvania moving toward Obama. And though, the Arizona senator can win by keeping the red states and winning Colorado, adding Pennsylvania sure would be helpful to him. But if Muhlenberg keeps churning out 7 and 8 point margins in their daily tracking poll of the Keystone state, that just isn't going to happen.

[Obviously, those tracking polls are something we should address. This is similar to the situation over the summer when Rasmussen was the overwhelming leader in providing polling information. The question then was, what if there is some bias in those polls? It would throw everything off. Well, Pennsylvania is in a similar situation now with these Muhlenberg polls beginning to pile up. Those polls seem to be in line with other emerging from Pennsylvania at the moment, though. As long as there are other polls echoing the Muhlenberg results it isn't a problem. If those polls start to diverge from the other polling in the state though, FHQ may have to revisit the decision to include them. We try for some modicum of transparency around here, so I'll keep you posted on that development.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The worst news for McCain is from Virginia, though.* Yes, Virginia was among the ARG series of polls in which the Arizona senator held a slim lead, but that was counteracted (and then some) by the Insider Advantage poll in the Old Dominion that showed Obama up by six points there. Combined, the two polls have the effect of drawing Virginia even closer to a dead heat. In fact, Virginia is now the closest state on the Spectrum, surpassing Nevada for that distinction. McCain could lose Nevada to Obama and still tie by picking off Colorado or win by swinging Colorado and New Hampshire. But if he were to lose Virginia, Michigan or Pennsylvania would have to be a part of his electoral math at that point. And for reasons we have already discussed, that is looking less and less likely.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
CT-7
(52)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
DE-3
(55)
NM-5
(212)
IN-11
(349/200)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
LA-9
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
AZ-10
(74)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Virginia, then, swaps places with Nevada on the Electoral College Spectrum and now appears to be the most likely Obama pick up of those states in pink. Arizona, too, swaps places with one of its neighbors on the Spectrum, changing spots with Louisiana for the second time in the last three days. Other than that, though, there was no other movement in the rankings. As bad as it seems for McCain, if he is able to hold on to those pinks states -- and that's a pretty big if right now -- he would have only to swing Colorado to pull out a win in the electoral college. Will that happen? I don't know. That's why they play the game. Time is running out, though, as are strategies.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Watch List remains the same as it was a day ago and as we have highlighted over and over again recently, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia are still the states to watch most closely. But you have to watch for polls in those states with the understanding that there are now many polls in each state (Nevada potentially excluded). The more polls there are the more difficult it becomes to alter FHQ's weighted average in the state. For instance, Virginia just became the closest state in our rankings tonight. However, it would take a poll showing Obama ahead by 10 to immediately shift the average over to the Illinois senator. And even that is outside of the what we would expect of polls from Virginia in the post-economic crisis period. But three consecutive polls showing Obama up five seems much more realistic and that would be enough to shift the average over to Obama. That, though, is a story for another day. Tomorrow perhaps.

*Ohio was a close runner up here due to the Insider Advantage poll, but since it came out after I had already written much of this, it kind of get short shrift. Plus it more equally counteracts the Survey USA poll out today as well, unlike in the Virginia case.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/30/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

Monday, September 29, 2008

The Electoral College Map (9/30/08)

To me, today was a slow polling day, especially following both the bailout battle in Congress last week and the first presidential debate last Friday night. But scant polling doesn't mean a lack substantive results. In fact, with a series of Rasmussen polls out this afternoon in five of the toss up states, there were some interesting lessons to take home.

First, who won the debate? Well nationally, polling has continued to rise in Obama's favor since the debates, but does that extend to the state level and, if so, where? Rasmussen has put together a nice little time series of five toss up states (Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia) since the conventions and over the last week there have been some notable trends.
  • Colorado has had only two Rasmussen polls over the last eight days, and the trend between those two polls is contrary to most of what is going on in the states below. The Centennial state was at +3 for Obama last week, but that has decreased to just a one point lead in the poll out today.
  • In Florida, McCain had bounced to a 5 point margin -- one outside the margin of error -- in the first poll last week. But as the week wore on that lead dissipated, first shrinking to one point and then disappearing altogether in today's poll.
  • Obama has made up ground in Ohio. The Buckeye state had been somewhat resistant to Obama advances in the post-convention environment, but that has changed ever so slightly. Down four a week ago, Obama has been behind by just one point in each of the before and after debate polls of the state.
  • In Pennsylvania, Obama has tacked on a few points with each poll over the last seven or eight days, moving from +3 to +8 in Rasmussen's recent surveys of the state.
  • Virginia went from +2 McCain to +5 Obama to +3 Obama today.
The conclusion? Obama has gained ground in Pennsylvania and the Keystone state appears to be following the lead of another Obama toss up, Michigan, bu increasingly moving toward Obama. Florida and Ohio are states where Obama has made up ground but continues to trail by the slimmest of margins. Colorado and Virginia, on the other hand, look as if they may have peaked last week -- at least in the Rasmussen polls -- as subtle gains have given way to a slight tightening since.

New Polls (Sept. 29)
StatePollMargin
Colorado
Rasmussen
+1
Florida
Rasmussen
0
Florida
Survey USA
+1
New Jersey
Survey USA
+10
North Carolina
Public Policy Polling
+2
Ohio
Rasmussen
+1
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg
+7
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen
+8
Tennessee
Mid. Tenn. St. Univ.
+11
Virginia
Rasmussen
+3

But it is perhaps not wise, though no less fun, to rely too heavily on this one polling firm's surveys. However, the results of those polls in Florida and Pennsylvania were echoed by additional polling in those states today. And North Carolina continues to tighten based on a series of polls that have either shown a tie or a slight Obama lead within the margin of error.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Overall, though, the map holds steady at 273-265 in favor of Obama. I can sense that perhaps people are getting antsy about the map not moving*, especially in light of recent polling. Truth be told, however, any shifts are dependent upon Nevada, Ohio and Virginia at this point. Virginia is tracking toward Obama, but Ohio has levelled off and there continues to be a lack of polling in Nevada given the closeness of the race in the Silver state. Should all three break for Obama on November 4, that would put the Illinois senator at 311 electoral votes. The idea of Obama's ceiling was brought up earlier today and that 311 seems a solid conservative estimate, but as I discussed recently, Obama could conceivably pull out a more serious victory with a sweep of those McCain toss ups. Is that likely? I have no idea. This bailout issue will have play out some more perhaps. The trajectory of the race, though, is toward Obama. And the gap between the trio of pinks states discussed above and the remaining McCain toss ups is enough to separate the category into likely and less likely Obama swings.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
CT-7
(52)
MN-10
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
DE-3
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

On the Electoral College Spectrum today, Minnesota moves a spot closer to the toss up/lean line by virtue of New Jersey jumping a spot closer to Obama in the rankings. But that's is the only move on a day when the majority of polls were in toss up states. Now, with the two polls in Pennsylvania showing Obama ahead by upper single digits, the Keystone state has officially joined the Watch List (states most likely to shift in to other categories with the addition of new polling). Like Michigan, Pennsylvania is within a point of moving into the safer Obama lean category. As September closes, then, the list is comprised of nine states that involve the toss up category in some way. Of those nine, six are on the cusp of moving toward Obama. When we talk about the positions each candidate is in, this is a clear indication.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

*If I have time this week, I'll look at some alternate scenarios like I did over the summer when I shifted the earliest poll considered in the data set to the point at which Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/08)

Here we are at the outset of VP debate week, and we're once again waiting on state-level polls to start coming out. As I said yesterday, it looks as if the polling firms all took Thursday and/or Friday off to set a baseline for comparison. If there was a polling done over the weekend then that will start coming today and tomorrow. Still, there hasn't been much so far today. Florida is it so far, but I'll get to the Sunshine state and hopefully some others in tonight's update.

New Polls (Sept. 28)
StatePollMargin
Connecticut
Survey USA
+16
Kentucky
Mason-Dixon
+12
Tennessee
Mason-Dixon
+16

What emerged on Sunday was a trio of polls from states that seem pretty set in their ways. Connecticut is a strong Obama state, just as Kentucky and Tennessee are safe states for McCain. The Survey USA poll of Connecticut is certainly in line with FHQ's weighted average of the state's polls. In Kentucky and Tennessee, though, both results come in under their respective averages. The Mason-Dixon survey of the Bluegrass state, for instance, is about seven points under while Tennessee is only a few points under where the average would place the Volunteer state. The latter is within margin of error though. Kentucky is not. As Nate Silver indicated yesterday, that may bode well for Obama across the border in Ohio. What may have been a complete beating in the southern part of the state may only be a beating now. However, if turnout is solid in the areas of the state that favor Obama on paper, then a smaller margin in a traditionally poor area for Democrats may come in handy.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Regardless, none of the three results fundamentally [Yes, the overuse of this word has officially begun in the context of this race.] changes the map. Each was a strong state for their respective candidates before and each remains in the safe range after. The point to take away is that after two subpar weeks for McCain, there is some shuffling among some of those red states. They may not be slipping into a danger zone for the Arizona senator, but there has been some drop in Kentucky and Tennessee. Let me add that this is the first time Mason-Dixon has surveyed either this cycle, so we lack a true comparison here between these polls and previous polls from the same firm. We don't have a before and after comparison like that in the Muhlenberg tracking poll of Pennsylvania that shows a 3 point gain for Obama after the debate. But like Florida, I'll get to that one in tonight's update.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
CT-7
(52)
NJ-15
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
DE-3
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

On the Electoral College Spectrum, there isn't too much change. Neighbors on the map, Kentucky and Tennessee are neighbors in these rankings as well. Each holds its position here though. Connecticut switches places with Delaware, becoming slightly safer to Obama than the First state. In the black and white world of presidential election politics, that really doesn't mean much. Neither state is going anywhere come November 4.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Finally, the Watch List doesn't budge and why should it based on three polls from overwhelmingly safe states. Nevada, Ohio and Virginia remain the states to watch the closest, but there are still a host of other states that are close to moving into or from the toss up distinction.


Recent Posts:
Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Is McCain Right? Does a Tie Go to the Runner?

"I was a little disappointed the media called it a tie, but I think that means when they call it a tie that means we win."
--John McCain

I may be a little late on this, but I thought I'd gauge the perceptions out there on this quotation. If you assume that a runner is an underdog and/or someone having to play offense, is that a win for the Arizona senator?

Here's what we know:
1) Last week was bad for McCain.
Effect: potentially lowered expectations

2) Foreign policy is supposed to be McCain's area.
Effect: Expectations were relatively high.

3) McCain played the experience/understanding card all night, but Obama was able to counter that by simply holding his own on the debate stage.
Effect: Well, that's where the tie comes in.


So, does McCain win in a draw scenario? More importantly, what happens if the McCain-Obama debates continue to be draws? That last one may or may not be obvious, but feel free to discuss while I update the electoral college map to reflect the changes brought about by yesterday's handful of polls.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

The Electoral College Map (9/28/08)

There seems to have been a polling cease fire among all the polling firms that began for the most part on Thursday and continued into and through Friday. Yeah, there was a debate coming but we're paying for it over this weekend. There are only two polls out today and in both cases each is in line with the weighted average FHQ has. And that's a real recipe for change on a site where the methodology is resistant to sudden change.

New Polls (Sept. 27)
StatePollMargin
Iowa
Rasmussen
+8
Louisiana
Rasmussen
+15

But there's one state for each candidate there. Obama maintains a heavy lean in Iowa. With the line here between the strong category and the lean category now at a nine point margin, Iowa is on the verge of joining the Watch List. [It is within a tenth of a point of moving up.] And for a state that some considered a toss up heading into the contest -- a number that is dwindling significantly over time, yet still has some among its ranks -- it just doesn't look like Hawkeye state is going to be all that close in 2008. For McCain, Louisiana remains a safe state. There have been blips of upper single digit margins along the way, but the Pelican state has never seemed to have been in doubt.


[Click Map to Enlarge]

Needless to say the map remains unchanged with the addition of the two new Rasmussen polls. Obama remains ahead 273-265 and given the way some of the daily tracker are going these days, that seems a bit too close perhaps. This, however, is still a race that is comprised of 50 different elections. If the state polls start to move in a direction similar to what we are witnessing in most of the national polls, then those pink states all of a sudden look pretty good for Obama again.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
CO-9***
(269/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
NH-4***
(273/269)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
OR-7
(175)
NV-5
(278/265)
AK-3
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
IA-7
(182)
VA-13
(291/260)
TX-34
(149)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
GA-15
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
IN-11
(322/227)
SC-8
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
NM-5
(212)
FL-27
(349/216)
SD-3
(92)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
WI-10
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
MS-6
(89)
OK-7
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(178)
AZ-10
(83)
ID-4
(9)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
The line between Colorado and New Hampshire is the where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Both states are currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in those two cells.

Nevada and Ohio were the most recent states to move in to the pink and are, with Virginia, the most likely to shift back into Obama territory. But the preceptions of the race have certainly changed since the period immediately following the conventions. Instead of talking about how far McCain may push into Obama territory, we're back to where we were in the time before the conventions talking about Obama swing some of those pink states. Florida and North Carolina (though the latter is a lean state) have closed considerably in recent polling. If Ohio and Florida, much lesss North Carolina, are states McCain is having to defend with all he's got, then the Arizona senator is in real trouble coming down the stretch in this race.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Indianafrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCainto Toss Up Obama
North Carolinafrom McCain lean
to Toss Up McCain
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Some of our loyal readers already think he is. And you have to admit that the paths to electoral college victory are limited in number at this point for McCain. Some of these battleground states are close enough now that the electoral college is close too. But how will state-level polls begin interpreting the events of Friday night? That will be the big question moving forward.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/27/08)

Open Thread: First 2008 Presidential Debate

Who You Callin' Underpolled?