Thursday, October 9, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

Wednesday was a surprisingly slow polling day, especially for a week day. And for the first time in a while you'll see a group of polls that is majority red. Sadly for the McCain campaign, all that red is from one state, Oklahoma, where a slew of backlogged polls got some attention from the poll-gathering sites. When that factor is accounted for, the impact of that red diminishes.

Other than the Sooner state, Georgia is the only other red state on the board for the day. The Peach state has tightened some recently, but it doesn't look as if the gap between McCain and Obama there (Well, here actually, for me.) will close enough to make it any more competitive. Obama is running behind Jim Martin's numbers in the senate race pitting Martin against incumbent, Saxby Chambliss. Much of Martin's gains recently can probably be attributed to the financial crisis. Chambliss pulled the classic "he was against it before he was for it" move on the bailout plan, and anecdotally speaking, some Georgia Republicans aren't happy about that switch. But Obama and Martin aren't on the same page on that issue and that could be part of the answer as to why the Illinois senator is lagging behind Martin's numbers against Chambliss. Of course, early voting had a disproportionate number of African American voters compared to their share of the total electorate so far in Georgia. And as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight demonstrated earlier this week, that could have a real effect on the margin McCain has in Georgia should those numbers persist.

New Polls (Oct. 8)
StatePollMargin
Georgia
Rasmussen
+9
Minnesota
Rasmussen
+7
Oklahoma
Tv Poll (9/7)
+38
OklahomaTv Poll (9/14)
+42.2
OklahomaTv Poll (9/21)
+39.3
OklahomaTv Poll (9/27)
+41.1
OklahomaTv Poll (10/5)
+36.4
Pennsylvania
West Chester Univ.
+10.3
Wisconsin
Research 2000
+10

On the blue side of the ledger, Obama continues to look more and more comfortable in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sure, the seven point margin Rasmussen found in Minnesota is below where some of the other polling firms have found the race in the state to be recently, but it is a continuation of the mounting evidence against the validity of that Survey USA poll out this past weekend -- the one that showed McCain up a point. The Rasmussen poll is the one closest to where FHQ's graduated weighted average of Minnesota is, though. [...I'm just saying.]
[Click Map to Enlarge]

Taken together, though, none of these polls are in any of our toss up states, and that nearly eliminates the potential for changes to the electoral vote distribution. In fact, there was no change to that tally. The most likely candidates for change of the electoral vote totals are Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and none of those states were polled yesterday (Oh, but PPP already has a poll out from Virginia this morning.). Obama, then, maintains the same 311-227 electoral vote edge that he held in yesterday's map.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
TX-34
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
MS-6
(103)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(97)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
AR-6
(94)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
PA-21
(238)
MO-11
(360/189)
SC-8
(88)
ID-4
(16)
MA-12
(98)
NM-5
(243)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(80)
OK-7
(12)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
WV-5
(163)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Sadly for us, the lack of any polls in those four states, means that there aren't that many changes to the Electoral College Spectrum or the Watch List. The latter is unchanged and the former saw only Oklahoma move, jumping Idaho in the rankings. The Sooner state and the Gem state are battling it out to see who can be the most supportive of McCain behind Utah. Actually, based on all those Tv Poll surveys, Oklahoma is now just behind Utah, a fraction of a point from overtaking it as the most intensely Republican state in this presidential race.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshirefrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The dynamics of the race remain the same, then. That leaves the McCain campaign just 26 days to figure out a way to shift the momentum back toward the Arizona senator. And with just one more debate -- now a little less than a week off -- the number of high profile opportunities to do that are waning.


Recent Posts:
Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Talk About Bad Timing

The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

I'm a couple of days late getting this up, but one of our loyal readers and commenters, Scott, updated his examination of the electoral college over the weekend, and I thought I'd put a map to it so we can "see" the shifts. For those who missed the first version, you can find it here. Here's the premise (...from that post):

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:
"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."
He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

And how does this change things on the map?

Changes (Sept. 23 - Oct. 6)
StateBeforeAfter
New Jersey
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Oregon
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Washington
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Nevada
Toss Up
Obama lean
Florida
McCain lean
Toss Up
North Carolina
McCain lean
Toss Up
West Virginia
Toss Up
McCain lean
Arkansas
McCain lean
Strong McCain
Montana
McCain lean
Strong McCain

As Scott said in the comments to the original post the other day:
"There are more toss-up EV's than previously, not less, but all of the gain came out of McCain's lean totals. In addition, Nevada moves out of toss-up status toward Obama, and New Mexico stands right on the edge of doing so."

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What we get, though, is a much darker map. The McCain lean states and the strong McCain states sum to 185 electoral votes while the total of the comparable Obama categories is at a nearly foolproof 269 electoral votes. As is the case in many of the other electoral college analyses out there, the blue states and most of the battleground states are moving toward Obama and some traditionally red states are lining up behind McCain.

Good stuff, Scott. Thanks again.


Recent Posts:
Talk About Bad Timing

The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

Talk About Bad Timing

Well, this one is bad timing on several levels.

But the GOP sure could have used this story about a month ago at their convention. It would have gone nicely with Sarah Palin's jab at community organizers. Post-Lehman, this doesn't do much for the McCain campaign, though.

It certainly does make people turn a skeptical eye toward massive voter registration drives, triggering increased discussions about voter ID requirements as the good folks at Election Updates rightly point out.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Electoral College Map (10/8/08)

Debate day, part III brought not only the town hall meeting from Nashville last night, but 19 new polls from 12 different states. Again, not a lot of red to be had, and that is an ominous sign for the McCain campaign given that most of the states represented are battleground states or perceived battlegrounds. Alaska still looks like a gimme for the Arizona senator and traditionally red Indiana is favoring him as well, though not to the level some may have thought entering this election year. There is also some relatively positive news for McCain in North Carolina, where Survey USA shows him up 3 points. The downside to that is that along with last week's ARG poll -- one that found the same margin -- are the only ones since about mid-September to show McCain ahead.

New Polls (Oct. 7)
StatePollMargin
Alaska
Rasmussen
+15
California
Survey USA
+16
Colorado
Insider Advantage
+6
Florida
Mason-Dixon/NBC
+2
Indiana
Research 2000
0
Indiana
CNN
+2
Minnesota
Minnesota Public Radio
+14
Nevada
Research 2000
+7
Nevada
Insider Advantage
+2
New Hampshire
CNN
+8
North Carolina
CNN
+1
North Carolina
Survey USA
+3
Ohio
CNN
+3
Ohio
Public Policy Polling
+6
Pennsylvania
Survey USA
+15
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen
+13
Wisconsin
CNN
+8
Wisconsin
Survey USA
+10
Wisconsin
Rasmussen
+10

Well, that's it for McCain and the rest is all Obama. Pennsylvania is rapidly being taken off the table. Double digit margin after double digit margin keep popping up in the polling of the Keystone state. That trend seems to be stretching to New Hampshire and Wisconsin as well. Just yesterday I was thinking about how tightly compact Wisconsin's polling has been -- relative to say, Minnesota -- and now even the Badger state is shifting toward Obama.

Changes (Oct. 7)
StateBeforeAfter
Nevada
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama
Ohio
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama

But the trend goes beyond the states around the line between Obama toss ups and Obama lean states. The recent rise in the polls has also been applied to the closest of states. Nevada and Ohio join Virginia on the blue side of the partisan line. The effect of this cannot be understated. Not only does that provide Obama with an added cushion in terms of how his campaign strategizes about the race, but it pushes him past 300 projected electoral votes. This cushion can certainly be discussed in terms of states, but in actuality it should probably be applied to electoral college votes. At 311, Obama has 41 electoral votes to give while still being able to claim outright victory.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

Obama remains relatively safe -- outside of toss up status -- in states totaling 260 electoral votes, but now has 25 additional votes in the blue with Nevada and Ohio switching over. Again, the discussion has shifted rapidly from one focused on how far McCain could push into Obama territory (Could he pick up Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example.) to one centered on how far down that middle column on the Electoral College Spectrum below Obama can extend. Florida, Indiana and Missouri are right there. And North Carolina is similar to Virginia, but how similar is the question. Geographically speaking, Indiana and Missouri are both in kind of a border region between a group of blue states and another group of red states. But that rule doesn't really apply to Florida. Then again, the Sunshine state is closer than either of the other two in our rankings. Are those realistic "gets" for Obama? Perhaps, but we'll have to see what transpires over this next month to find out.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
TX-34
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
OH-20
(311/247)
MS-6
(103)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(97)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
AR-6
(94)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
PA-21
(238)
MO-11
(360/189)
SC-8
(88)
OK-7
(16)
MA-12
(98)
NM-5
(243)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(80)
ID-4
(9)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
WV-5
(163)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List is only slightly different today than it was yesterday. Obviously, Nevada and Ohio are still close enough to be vulnerable for Obama. The momentum, however, is certainly with the Illinois senator. The big news is that Pennsylvania is off the list. The Keystone state has moved outside of the 3-5 point range. With the graduated average margin there now above five, Pennsylvania has even jumped New Mexico above on the Spectrum. Was McCain's Michigan move last week designed to be more aggressive in Pennsylvania? If so, it isn't working. Not yet at least. Those resources may be better utilized in states like Virginia and Florida.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshirefrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

With last night's debate not really changing much, McCain is seeminly up against it in this race. The media is set to jump on any move toward negativity that the campaign makes and with just one more debate left, McCain is running out of opportunites to make the case that Obama is the risky choice. Then again, Obama only seems to be helping the combat that charge in these debates.


Recent Posts:
Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: 2nd Presidential Debate: Town Hall Meeting

11:05pm: Folks, I'm off to plug in a few straggling polls to the data set for the electoral college. I'll be back mid-morning with an update. The comments section remains open, but I just don't think we witnessed anything tonight that is going to shake this race up in any noticeable way.

10:51pm: Obama is still working the room. Did McCain head off to a Palin-type rally like the Alaska governor attended after last week's vice presidential debate in St. Louis?

10:41pm: Wrap up. Well, if you were looking for a game changer, this wasn't it. I think McCain was certainly in his element tonight. But, in the end, he just didn't do enough to turn this thing around. I will say this: He did avoid the angry trap, but his trademark sarcasm reared its head a couple of times. Not to the extent that it did in those back and forths with Romney in the winter, but still it was there. McCain stressed a steady hand, and I thought Obama's performance was just that. Does a debate performance project White House success? Absolutely not, but that was an ironic twist to this: that Obama's performance was steady. McCain has left the building but Obama remains. He's talking with the guy who asked the Israel question now, the military vet. This is strange. Obama is still there working the crowd, but McCain has literally left the building. C-SPAN even found it necessary to come on and announce that they weren't following Obama around on purpose. Indeed.

10:37pm: Back on C-SPAN Brokaw's mike is still on. He is overheard saying, "You see what I was up against," no doubt referring to the timing issues that plagued this debate.

10:34pm: McCain has the last word and stresses the need for a steady hand. Both candidates block Brokaw's teleprompter trying to shake hands as the moderator tries to wrap things up. A light moment to end the debate; an otherwise tame affair. Brian Williams just called past town halls "boisterous." This one didn't pass that bar. I assume he was referring to 1992 or the infamous "chest bump" debate of 2000. Well, that's what George W. Bush thought Gore might do. If you haven't seen it, google, "Debating Our Destiny" and watch PBS's documentary on past debates. What am I? I'm the blogger here. Above is that link.

10:29pm: Last question: "What don't you know and how will you learn it?" Obama treats it like a closing statement and leans on the biographical section of his stump speech, stressing opportunity and change. McCain asks what will happen here and abroad? Read: Obama is a risky choice. And he, too, moves into the biography segment of his stump speech. But at least he sort of answered the question.

10:25pm: From the audience: If Iran attacks Israel will you commit troops to defend them? McCain: Pressure Iran with joint sanctions from the Allies. Obama: Focuses on a nuclear Iran. But says military options are not off the table. But he doesn't specify whether he's talking about the questioner's particular hypothetical.

10:23pm: Brokaw: Is Russia still the Evil Empire under Putin? McCain: Maybe. Can't say yes or no. A pretty good answer.

10:19pm: On to Russia. Again with the KGB Putin line? Alliances against Russia sounds a bit like the Cold War. Obama: Protecting former Soviet satellites is important. Was Poland a Soviet satellite? Now, it was under communist control, but was it a satellite?

10:18pm: A lot has been made of Obama saying, "he's absolutely right" about McCain in the first debate, but Obama McCain just said Obama was right on Afghanistan.

10:16pm: And now a Brokaw follow up. This time on Afghanistan. "Briefly, if you can," Brokaw adds. British commander: an acceptable dictator. Obama stresses democracy.

10:13pm: And we're bending the rules now on time. A follow up. Obama asks for one and McCain calls for equal time. Obama goes after McCain on "Bomb, bomb, bomb. Bomb, bomb Iran," as an example of McCain not "speaking softy and carrying a big stick." This bickering is not a positive here. Who will get the blame if this is a highlight of the debate? Obama asked for the follow up, but McCain gets the last word.

10:10pm: McCain has two heroes. First, Reagan and now Teddy Roosevelt. And he moves into an attack on Obama announcing he'd attack Pakistan. Like the first debate, "I've been there." This time to Waziristan.

10:08pm: Ooh, Pakistan. And it cuts right to the heart of an Obama statement on going in to get terrorists there. This should be good.

10:06pm: McCain is going the experience route here. Calling for a steady hand and judgment and that Obama is a risk for decisions like the withdrawal call, pre-surge.

10:04pm: Brokaw: Let's see if we can figure out the Obama doctrine or the McCain doctrine.

...for intervening in humanitarian causes when US security is not at stake.

10:00pm: Keeping the world peace. Does the economic situation affect the US's ability to do this? Well, Obama doesn't understand foreign policy according to McCain. "We don't have time for on the job training." Obama admits he doesn't understand.

...why the US invaded a country that wasn't a part of 9-11. Clever. Also clever? Pivoting to the amount of money being spent in Iraq and how that affects the US domestically.

9:58pm: In my best Dwight Schrutte voice: Question. Why is it Sarah Palin was made fun of on SNL the other night for cutting off the Gs on -ing words in last week's debate? Obama does it too. I may have answered my question already. Ha!

9:55pm: Health care, privilege, right or responsibility? McCain leans toward people having the freedom to choose what they want. Obama says it is a right.

9:53pm: McCain plays the "He will fine you" game. Arizona and Tennessee are neighbors now? "If you cross over the state line" and like what's offered in Arizona and not Tennessee...

9:50pm: Next question: health care coverage and costs. I crunched numbers all weekend, but I got to catch enough of the news to catch this "He giveth with one hand and taketh with the other" line from Obama on what he calls McCain's plan to tax this stuff.

9:48pm: "You know who voted for that. That one," motioning to Obama. Oh, and it was a Bush plan on an energy bill loaded with goodies. That "that one" part will be analyzed later in the MSM. This all sounds like Senate inside baseball to me.

9:47pm: Brokaw again on the time issue. This will be a long one. They have to make up for not doing a series of these over the summer, right?

9:46pm: But Obama also goes after McCain on drilling.

9:44pm: On to climate change. In this corner, nuclear. McCain has been on a ship with nuclear power and insists it is safe. In that corner, opportunity. Obama touts green jobs.

9:42pm: McCain is energized and sharp here in referring back to one of the earlier questioners.

9:40pm: "It's not that hard to fix Social Security," says McCain. Of course that followed, "I'll answer the question." Ah, another commission to solve problems.

9:37pm: Second internet question? Entitlements (social security and Medicare). Brokaw adds to the question by asking if action is possible within two years. Obama doesn't sign on to the two year thing, but does say he will address it in his first term. He had better hope the Democrats retain control of Congress in 2010 if he wins. Otherwise the first term thing will be tough. It will be even if the Dems hold control in 2010, perhaps.

9:35pm: Has McCain not learned from his Republican primary debates? That sarcasm never served him well. Obama is now proposing a tax increase and is a protectionist. Well, we'll get to that McCain promises.

9:30pm: Obama uses 9-11 to talk about a call to service in the US. Who bet on Obama bringing up 9-11 first? Whoever it was is not in the midst of an economic crisis anymore.

9:28pm: Ooh, the first internet question.

...from a 78 year old. Awesome!

Again with the projector. By the end of the night this will be the most famous planetarium projector in the world. This planetarium will be well off after this.

9:27pm: Alright. No split screens on C-SPAN. I'm off to HD land.

9:25pm: McCain gets the first crack at the first year priorities follow up for discussion time. He goes with energy and health care. Obama? Energy? Check. That one's tops. And education. And "our records"? Obama pivots to a discussion on taxes. I think he's gone over a minute here. Brokaw thinks so too.

9:22pm: "Most liberal big spender." Now there it is. I really thought Palin would be the one to do it, but hey here it is. And examples: a projector for a Chicago planetarium.

9:21pm: Scratch that. Cynicism is alright. McCain used it too. Maybe I'm too PC. Uh oh.

9:20pm: Twenty minutes in, I've got to say both candidates like this format.

9:18pm: How can we trust either of you to deal with the economy? Obama wades into the firestorm first. "I understand your frustration and cynicism." I would have steered clear of that last one. But I'm typing on a computer now, not in front of those folks.

9:16pm: Worse before it gets better? Obama says no and that revamping the regulation regime is a must. McCain? "Depends on what we do." Clever way to bring up this "risky choice argument" that the McCain campaign has been making about Obama.

9:14pm: Obama lets it go to directly address the questioner. Or not. Here comes Obama's side on the Fannie/Freddie charge from McCain. "I need to correct" McCain..."not surprisingly." Not surprisingly, Obama touts the deregulation charge. And we've traded barbs on Fannie/Freddie. McCain's lobbyist consultants have ties as well.

9:12pm: I'll be interested to see if Obama responds to McCain bring up the campaign suspension. Obama and his cronies? Obama is smiling.

9:10pm: There may be a dead horse in the room in Nashville. This "fundamentals" thing has been run into the ground. But hey, for good reason, it could be argued.

9:08pm: How are you not able to answer that question (on who to choose to replace Paulson in the Treasury)? And if not answer it, at least not pause like that. Meg Whitman? Isn't she going to run for governor in California?

9:08pm: Stylistically McCain is already in his element on this first question.

9:06pm: McCain subtly (or not so subtly) jabs at Obama for not appearing at any town halls over the summer.

9:03pm: Good start for McCain. He looked at Obama when he shook his hand. Check that one off the list. I'm looking at you MSM.

9:01pm: And we're off!

8:29pm: Alright folks, we are just a little over half an hour away from showtime in Nashville. [No, I'm not there.] I've been asked several times since the VP debate Thursday night if I thought we would see a "different" McCain at tonight's debate. I have no idea and I certainly don't think that it will be "angry" McCain if he does try to roll out -- Al Gore style, mind you -- an alternate debate persona. However, one thing McCain must do is find a way to shift this race in some meaningful way toward him. But with Obama up in the polls, McCain is back in the role of underdog (not that he wasn't there during the first debate) and that is a role he has relished in his time running for president. For Obama, the mantra is "steady as she goes," but with an audience asking questions the dynamic may be a bit different. One thing to keep in mind about tonight's proceedings is that there are no follow up questions from the audience or the moderator. I'm assuming that includes that candidates as well.

My goal? I'll be trying to extend my streak of non-booing live blogs to two (I kid, CBSmith.). I may even try to embed some of the footage here to go along with my comments. We'll see if I can actually pull that off. As always, I'll be watching on C-SPAN. I doubt we'll be getting the full time split screen in the town hall format. [I also doubt I'll be getting that royalty check from C-SPAN.]

Also, feel free to follow along and drop comments along the way.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08), Part II: The Changes

New Methodology:

There would have been a lot packed into one post if I would have included this discussion in with the other pre-change version of the map for yesterday. However, you can either scroll down (if you are on the main page) or click here to compare how things were different pre- and post-change.

To reiterate a point made earlier today, FHQ, in an attempt make our map more reflective of the current dynamics of the race for the presidency has made a slight alteration to its underlying statistical formula. Long story short, we have changed the weighting that is applied to all the past polls (back to Super Tuesday) in our data set. For a broader discussion of this change please see this link.

Changes (Oct. 6)
StateBeforeAfter
Iowa*
Obama lean
Strong Obama
Michigan*
Toss Up Obama
Obama lean
Nevada
Toss Up Obama
Toss Up McCain
North Carolina
McCain lean
Toss Up McCain
North Dakota*
McCain lean
Strong McCain
Pennsylvania*
Toss Up Obama
Obama lean
Virginia
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama
*These states changed categories based on a slight change to FHQ's methodology. You can read more about that shift here.

Alright, let's start with the basics. How does the map change given the change to the methodology? Given yesterday's polling, North Carolina and Virginia still would have shifted into the McCain toss up and Obama toss up categories respectively. However, there several other noticeable shifts as well that are attributable to our decision on the averaging formula. Most notably, both Michigan and Pennsylvania move into the Obama lean category. Iowa, too, moves further into Obama territory, crossing the lean/strong threshold. But McCain is not without gains in this. Nevada, which had just recently shifted over into the Obama toss up category is back on the McCain side of the partisan line. And North Dakota shifts into the strong McCain area. All of these are pretty much no-brainers given recent polling. Nevada is perhaps surprising, but we have seen throughout this cycle an oscillation between +5 for McCain to +5 for Obama in the Silver state. There are some exceptions, but that is the basic trend. The one notable exception is the first poll in our time frame from Nevada. Obama had an early 12 point margin in a February Rasmussen poll and when that one is weighted appropriately, the Illinois senator lost some of the statistical advantage he had in the state. The remaining polling pretty much cancels each other out and give McCain a minutely sized edge there.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

But the real change is in the perception of the race with Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Obama lean category. With that change Obama is now relatively safe in states totaling 260 electoral votes and as you'll see just below on the Watch List, New Hampshire is also close to joining that group as well. The two comparable categories for John McCain add up to only 163 electoral votes.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
MT-3
(158)
LA-9
(67)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
ND-3
(155)
KY-8
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
GA-15
(152)
KS-6
(50)
MD-10
(24)
OR-7
(182)
OH-20
(306/252)
TX-34
(137)
TN-11
(44)
DE-3
(27)
NJ-15
(197)
NV-5
(311/232)
MS-6
(103)
NE-5
(33)
NY-31
(58)
MN-10
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
AK-3
(97)
AL-9
(28)
IL-21
(79)
WI-10
(217)
MO-11
(349/200)
AR-6
(94)
WY-3
(19)
CT-7
(86)
NM-5
(222)
IN-11
(360/189)
SC-8
(88)
OK-7
(16)
MA-12
(98)
PA-21
(243)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(80)
ID-4
(9)
CA-55
(153)
MI-17
(260)
WV-5
(163)
SD-3
(70)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

This all works out quite well in terms of the Electoral College Spectrum. The states still in play are conveniently contained within the middle column there. But there is some differentiation within that group as well. New Hampshire is within range of switching into the Obama lean category, Colorado has and average above two points and Virginia is within range of crossing back over into the McCain toss up area. Once you cross the partisan line into the pink, McCain toss up states, there is now a line that can be drawn between Florida and Missouri. Florida, Nevada and Ohio are all in danger of turning blue, while Indiana and Missouri are in positions comparable to Colorado on the Obama side of the ledger. Finally, North Carolina is in a similar position as New Hampshire, competitive, but not as competitive as these other states.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Floridafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Iowafrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
Michiganfrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Nevadafrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshirefrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
New Jerseyfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
North Dakotafrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Obama lean
to Toss Up Obama
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Aside from Michigan and Pennsylvania, Florida is the other big story here. The Sunshine state had moved in a middle ground area within the McCain toss up category, but was seemingly stuck there. When the past polls are weighted based on when they were conducted, Florida jumps into the discussion with Nevada, Ohio and Virginia; states that could switch sides of the partisan line with any new poll released. Presidential campaigns on both sides are used to playing some form of offense or defense in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but McCain seemingly had Florida nailed down over the summer. But that's not the case anymore. Playing defense in Florida and Ohio -- not to mention Virginia -- in an unfriendly political environment makes it even tougher to go on the offensive in places like Pennsylvania and...

...Michigan.

Put very simply, McCain is in trouble and has to devise a formula that can somehow reverse the trend toward Obama. Over the weekend and into the beginning part of this week, it looks like the campaign has decided to go negative to bring Obama down, but hopefully not bring themselves down too far in the process. The political science literature tells us that negative attacks bring both sides down, but the aggressor/underdog has to hope that the fall is much greater for opposition. That seems to be McCain's strategy now and, though, we don't have a full picture of this given the lag time inherent in polling, we do know that the polling out thus far this week has continued to move toward Obama. That is the context in which the debate will be held this evening. McCain will have to be aggressive, but as Rob notes in the comments, the town hall format is not a particular conducive format for an attack.


Speaking of debates, I'll be back later this evening to provide insta-analysis as well as discuss the events as they happen and maybe even afterward.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/7/08)

First, let's discuss Monday's polling changes in terms of how they would look under the original methodology and then we'll compare and contrast with how things look under the new graduated weighted average.

Old Methodology:

With 13 new polls out in 10 states -- eight of which are or have become toss ups -- Monday there certainly the potential for a shake up to our map and the electoral vote distribution. As has become apparent since the Wall Street meltdown, Obama is now ahead, not just nationally, but in the states where the battle for the White House is being most hotly contested. If the polls below are indicative of how votes will be cast on November 4, then Obama is in good shape. Polling leads in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia give the Illinois senator a number of paths to 270. The Rasmussen poll of Ohio is the only exception to the rule, but even that poll was countered by a 6 point margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll of the Buckeye state.

New Polls (Oct. 6)
StatePollMargin
Colorado
Rasmussen/FOX
+6
Florida
Rasmussen/FOX
+7
Georgia
Research 2000/Daily Kos
+7
Missouri
Rasmussen/FOX
+3
New Hampshire
Survey USA
+13
New Mexico
Albuquerque Journal
+5
North Carolina
Public Policy Polling
+6
Ohio
ABC/Washington Post
+6
Ohio
Rasmussen/FOX
+1
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg College
+11
Virginia
Suffolk
+12
Virginia
Survey USA
+10
Virginia
Rasmussen/FOX
+2

And some of these margins are particularly large in view of polling in some of these states just more than a month ago, prior to the conventions. McCain got the last word at his convention, but the staying power of that bounce subsided once the Lehman collapse and other financial sector issues came to the fore.

Changes (Oct. 6)
StateBeforeAfter
North Carolina
McCain lean
Toss Up McCain
Virginia
Toss Up McCain
Toss Up Obama

The result is a slow progression toward Obama in the toss ups and marginally competitive lean states. That lean state movement is mostly on the blue side but North Carolina has now jumped back into the toss up category based on a string [Yes, string...] of Obama-favorable polls in the Tar Heel state. Virginia continues to work its way through the statistical noise in our formula and has once again shifted between toss up categories; this time on the Obama side of the partisan line.
[Click Map to Enlarge]

With Virginia rejoining Nevada on the blue side of the line, Obama's electoral vote lead is now at 291-247. And those 15 North Carolina electoral votes are now back on the table in the toss up McCain area. More importantly, though, Obama once again has a two state cushion with which to work. And obviously that goes back the paths to which we were referring just a moment ago. The Illinois senator has options that McCain just does not at this point. Obama can lose both Nevada and Virginia and still win.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4
(7)**
ME-4
(157)
NH-4
(264/278)
ND-3
(160)
KS-6
(64)
VT-3
(10)
WA-11
(168)
CO-9***
(273/274)
WV-5
(157)
AR-6
(58)
RI-4
(14)
IA-7
(175)
VA-13
(286/265)
TX-34
(152)
NE-5
(52)
IL-21
(35)
OR-7
(182)
NV-5
(291/252)
GA-15
(118)
TN-11
(47)
MD-10
(45)
MN-10
(192)
OH-20
(311/247)
AK-3
(115)
KY-8
(36)
DE-3
(48)
NJ-15
(207)
FL-27
(338/227)
MS-6
(100)
AL-9
(28)
CT-7
(55)
WI-10
(217)
IN-11
(349/200)
SC-8
(94)
WY-3
(19)
NY-31
(86)
NM-5
(222)
MO-11
(360/189)
SD-3
(86)
ID-4
(16)
CA-55
(141)
MI-17
(239/316)
NC-15
(375/178)
AZ-10
(83)
OK-7
(12)
MA-12
(153)
PA-21
(260/299)
MT-3
(163)
LA-9
(73)
UT-5
(5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
**The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Pennsylvania (all Obama's toss up states, but Michigan), he would have 299 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics.

***
Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

That tenuous grasp Obama has on both those states is highlighted by the presence of each on the Watch List. Even though both are currently favoring Obama, each is within striking distance for McCain. But with more and more polling coming out indicating movement toward Obama, that distance is increasing with each day. And now, with the momentum behind Obama, the playing field has shifted away from those light blue states -- the ones we talked about Obama having to defend just a couple of weeks ago -- toward the pink states on the Electoral College Spectrum above.

The Watch List*
StateSwitch
Iowafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Michiganfrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Minnesotafrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Missourifrom Toss Up McCainto McCain lean
Nevadafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
North Carolinafrom Toss Up McCain
to McCain lean
Ohiofrom Toss Up McCain
to Toss Up Obama
Oregonfrom Obama lean
to Strong Obama
Pennsylvaniafrom Toss Up Obama
to Obama lean
Texasfrom Strong McCainto McCain lean
Virginiafrom Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up McCain
Washingtonfrom Strong Obama
to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see here for the version of the breakdown with the methodological changes alluded to above.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/6/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/5/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/4/08)