The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)

A trio of new polls was released Sunday. All three were blue and all three did little to change the perception of the overall race or the race in each of the three states. Obama is clearly ahead in California, pulling away in Pennsylvania and has edged out in front in Nevada of late. Pennsylvania is looking increasingly difficult for McCain to seize and without the Keystone state, in addition to the Michigan pull out, the path to 270 has limited options. Even if Nevada were to shift back into McCain territory, it would do little more than a tamp down a runaway Obama victory in the electoral college. With just five electoral votes, Nevada isn't going to swing this election back in McCain's direction unless other states come with it. Namely, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. But with each new poll, even those states seem difficult "gets" for the Arizona senator.

New Polls (Oct. 12)
State	Poll	Margin
California	Rasmussen	+16
Nevada	Mason-Dixon	+2
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+12

The three new polls, then, do nothing to change the dynamics of a race that has become rather static over the last week or so. Obama is ahead nationally and in most of the crucial battleground states, but with just one more debate between the two major party contenders, we have almost entered the "outside factors" phase of the race. In other words, it will take outside factors to disrupt the race in a way similar to the AIG/Lehman collapse to reshape the race at a time when both candidates will be making their closing arguments to voters.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The survey data out today is moderately predictable. Both California and Nevada are within a couple of points of FHQ's weighted average in each. The Pennsylvania numbers from Muhlenberg are outside of that state's average, but when we consider just the polls over the last three weeks -- since the economic crisis became a crisis -- the margin seems far more understandable. All it really does is move Pennsylvania further into the blue and further away from McCain. In the end, none of the three polls does anything to shift any of the electoral votes between categories or between candidates. Obama remains ahead by 84 electoral votes, and nothing in recent polling indicates that margin will do anything but get larger.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Of course, that easier to say when you are trying to get through a terrifically slow weekend for polling. If anything, the new week should be welcomed with open arms simply because it is likely to bring an increase in the frequency of polling. The states below --unchanged from a day ago -- are the ones where changes in categories, or more importantly for our purposes, changes in who is ahead are the most likely to occur. Florida is tops on the list. And if we know anything about our measure here, it is that when and if the Sunshine state turns blue, it is likely there to stay. Even with all the past polls being discounted according to when they were released, our model is still on the conservative side. So when changes occur they are significant and overwhelmingly likely to hold.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

I failed to go over the Electoral College Spectrum because it didn't shift at all from yesterday. The states in that middle column from Colorado down to Florida are where the real battle in this race is now. And McCain pretty much has to sweep all five to win. I say pretty much simply because there are other scenarios where McCain wins, but this one is the most likely. And the probability of that occurence is dropping with each passing day. 22 left to go.


Recent Posts:
A Follow-Up on ACORN

The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

A Follow-Up on ACORN

Earlier in the week I linked to a story on a raid of the Las Vegas office of ACORN. At issue was concern over voter registration irregularities. Some folks took issue with the way I chose to frame the way the story might be perceived. Speaking of framing, it seems that original story was lacking a vital part: ACORN's side of the story. As it turns out it was the ACORN folks who internally identified the people involved and turned them in. [Sadly, Project Vote's site is down right now. Not just that story; the whole site.] The Trail at the Washington Post added this:

"ACORN officials said they were stunned by the search because they had unilaterally identified and flagged suspicious voter registration cards to the county elections board starting in July and had been cooperating with authorities to cull bad information and fire workers who collected that information, said Brian Mellor, senior counsel for Project Vote."

In a close election this would probably be a bigger deal. [And it wasn't too long ago we were talking about this one being close.] Granted, Nevada is close, but the more that comes out about this particular ACORN situation and others, the more it seems like a drop in the bucket sort of scenario.

H/t: Elections Update for the link.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The big question of Saturday -- an otherwise slow polling day? Did that new Ohio poll from the University of Cincinnati pull the Buckeye state back into the group of McCain states? [What? You think I'm going to answer that one right away?] What has been established in Ohio -- post-Lehman -- has been a range of results between +8 for Obama to +2 for McCain. In this Cincinnati poll, then, we have a result at the extreme McCain end of that range in Ohio. If we simply take the average of the polls during the three week period since the economic situation began, Obama leads the Buckeye state by two and a half points. That's essentially, two points ahead of where FHQ's graduated weighted average currently has the state. Yes, that seems like Obama has a rather tenuous grasp on the Buckeye state. Well, he does, but it isn't perhaps as vulnerable as you might think.

John McCain would need a series of polls favoring him or one poll, given the current numbers, giving him an edge of five points to bring Ohio back across the partisan line. Yeah, that five point margin doesn't seem like much, but in light of the discussion above about the range of polls in Ohio recently, it does is probabalistically outside of the realm of possibility. One big burst for McCain appears unlikely and the Arizona senator is averaging a little over one positive poll a week in Ohio. In other words, a series of polls favoring McCain in Ohio also seems unlikely in the context of the current environment. It isn't as if McCain hasn't been trying, but somehow the McCain-Palin ticket has to find a way to change the dynamic of the race, if not nationally, then in a few toss up states that could make a difference. We'll discuss those states below with the Electoral College Spectrum.

New Polls (Oct. 11)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Survey USA	+27
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+10
Delaware	West Chester Univ.	+17
Ohio	Univ. of Cincinnati	+2

Other than Ohio, the only other poll of note on Saturday was PPP's poll of Colorado. I don't want to give short shrift to Alabama and Delaware, but is anyone really surprised by either of those results? Both appear to be in the bag for their respective candidates. Colorado, though, is one of a handful of Bush states from 2004 that may turn blue in November. The more double digit leads polls give Obama in the Centennial state, the better the chances of that happening are. [Well, that meaning Colorado staying blue and switching parties from one presidential cycle to the next.] Like Ohio, though, this PPP poll is at the extreme end of the range of polling out of Colorado, but in this case toward Obama. The range of results in Colorado since the Lehman collapse is slightly wider than the one in Ohio, stretching from +10 for Obama to +3 for McCain. Both are outliers but each is basically equidistant from the average of all the polls over the last three weeks. At +4 for Obama, that average is right on the cut off between what FHQ considers a toss up and a lean state. [And would be safe after that line is moved down to 3 points later this coming week.] And that's indicative of the state of this race. If the Victory Line state -- the state where each candidate passes or would pass 270 electoral votes -- is four points into Obama territory that says something about the difficult position John McCain is in right now. For the record, that four points is the average of polls over the last three weeks -- an Obama period. Over the course of the race since Super Tuesday back in February, Obama holds an edge of nearly three points in our weighted average.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The polls on Saturday didn't do much to move electoral votes on the map. In fact, for the second straight day, the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged. Obama continues to hold 311-227 electoral vote advantage in the projected electoral college tally. And as I said above, it is incumbent upon the McCain campaign to shift the momentum, if not nationally, then in the handful of the closest states. That means going on the offensive in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and defending Florida and North Carolina. The catch for the McCain campaign is that there does not seem to be a silver bullet that hits all of those states at once. They have focused on Obama's judgment and character this past week, but that has not put a dent in the polling advantages that Obama has held, either nationally or on the state level. And with just one debate left, the opportunities for McCain to stem (and reverse) the tide are decreasing.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List stays the same today as well. As an extension of our target state/toss up state discussion, we should talk about the general trends in each. The momentum is squarely behind Obama in each of the states mentioned above. As such, Florida is the state to keep the closest eye on. The Sunshine state has continued to inch toward Obama over the course of the last couple of weeks. And as I said yesterday, continued pro-Obama polling will push Florida into the blue sooner rather than later. One poll would do it as well if that poll was +10 for Obama, but that is not as likely, but isn't necessarily outside of the realm of possibility.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As we head into a new week -- the week of the final presidential debate of 2008 -- the economy continues to dominate the news, but the McCain campaign has attempted to shift that discussion. And Congresman John Lewis has added another layer to this by comparing the McCain campaign's tactics over the last week to George Wallace's during the 1960s. That bombshell has reverberated around the Sunday morning shows this morning and is likely to be a topic of discussion during the first part of the week. The question now is whether that discussion sustains itself long enough to potentially work its way into the debate on Wednesday night. That is the domestic-themed debate and we have yet to see any discussion of race in these debates, much less the campaign. The Obama campaign has certainly attempted to steer clear of the issue, but it will interesting to see if it becomes a part of Wednesday's debate.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

Friday was another slow day for new polls, but the ones that were released didn't lack interest. The big news was the new Insider Advantage survey of Georgia, a poll that shows the race has narrowed quite a bit. In fact, that poll runs about seven points under where FHQ's graduated weighted average had the state prior to the poll's release. We had talked about Georgia earlier in the week and the idea that Obama's numbers in the Peach state were running behind Democratic senate candidate, Jim Martin. That's still the case, but it is only a handful of points now. Martin is knotted in a race with incumbent Saxby Chambliss according to that same Insider Advantage poll. If Georgia voters are in a "throw the rascals out" mood on election day, things could get interesting.

[Granted, I say this from a rather selfish vantage point. I'm more interested in competitive races where I am than blowouts. It's more fun for a political scientist that way.]

New Polls (Oct. 10)
State	Poll	Margin
Florida	Research 2000	+5
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+3
Iowa	Survey USA	+13
Michigan	Rossman/MIRS	+5
North Carolina	Marshall/WSOC-TV	+1.8
Ohio	Insider Advantage	+5
Oregon	Rasmussen	+11
Vermont	Rasmussen	+33

But the ominous signs for McCain on Friday weren't confined to just Georgia or rallies where he seemed to claim Obama wasn't some to be scared of as president. Florida and Ohio both turned in yet more results positive for Obama. [And I should note that I wrongly reported the numbers for the Strategic Vision poll of Florida yesterday. The Obama advantage in that poll was +8, not +7 as was listed in the table of polls.] Ohio has already crossed the partisan line to join the Obama states on the board and Florida continues to move in that direction as well. What we know about the recent polling in Florida and the methodology here is that when or if that switch takes place, it will likely be for good.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But it wasn't all bad for McCain. Michigan seems closer with the MIRS poll showing the Illinois senator's lead at just five -- a day after Rasmussen has the state at +16 for Obama. However, that poll comes with a caveat: it is a week old and likely didn't get a full picture of the reaction to McCain pulling resources from the Wolverine state. North Carolina, then was the lone survey that was positive for McCain. But that's indicative of how the perceptions are in this race currently. This looks great for McCain given the slew of polls lately that have had Obama ahead, but if you'd have told the McCain campaign a year ago that they would win the nomination and would have to defend North Carolina, they likely would not have liked their chances in November.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

None of the polls changed anything on the maps or in the Electoral College Spectrum, though. If our averages reflect how the states will go on November 4, then Obama would win with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227. As we discussed, however, Florida is well within position to switch over to Obama. Like Virginia the other week, a poll with a 10 point margin in Obama's favor would just push the Sunshine state into the blue. Now, is that realistic? I hesitate to say since the last time I did a similar exercise -- in Virginia's case -- I surmised that it was not. But, the next day brought a 10 point margin in Virginia. Is it feasible, though? The ceiling for Obama in Florida during this post-Lehman surge in the polls has been 8 points on three separate occasions. From that perspective, 10 seems a bit much, but we'll see. With the way polling data has been coming in this weekend, we won't likely know until early in the week ahead.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Needless to say, Florida continues to be on the Watch List as do all the other 10 states on the list yesterday. The only addition is Georgia and the Peach state moves on based on the strength of that Insider Advantage poll. Georgia is still out of Obama's reach as it is positioned on the Electoral College Spectrum above, but in a landslide election, the Peach state is increasingly likely to get caught up in an Obama wave, should one occur.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

Well, the polling day started out slow, but by mid-afternoon it picked up a head of steam with ARG's release of new survey data from from seven states. The biggest news there? West Virginia giving eight points to Obama. The Mountain state, not content to see its eastern neighbor provide the Illinois senator with an eight point edge, followed suit in the afternoon with an equivalent margin. If only it worked that way. Well, it sort of has in recent days. The shift toward Obama has worked like contagion across much of the US, spreading through the Obama lean and battleground states and a handful of McCain lean and strong states as well.

New Polls (Oct. 9)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+19.5
Alaska	Ivan Moore	+17
Florida	Rasmussen	+3
Florida	Strategic Vision	+8
Georgia	Strategic Vision	+7
Indiana	Rasmussen	+7
Michigan	Rasmussen	+16
Minnesota	ARG	+1
Missouri	ARG	+3
Montana	ARG	+5
New Hampshire	ARG	+9
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+8
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+1
North Carolina	Civitas	+5
Ohio	ARG	+3
Ohio	Strategic Vision	+2
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+14
Texas	ARG	+19
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+8
West Virginia	ARG	+8

In total, Thursday brought 20 polls from 17 states. And once again, the list it chock full of blue. However, the list is not without notable red. The series of ARG polls had McCain striking back with a lead in Missouri to counter a couple of Obama leads in the Show-Me state in the last few days. The Arizona senator also got something good out of Indiana, where Rasmussen shows McCain up 7. But in Georgia and Montana things got tighter. The Peach state still seems far enough beyond Obama's grasp at this point for McCain, but the ARG poll of Montana offered a mixed tale. On the one hand, it counterintuitively increased from the post-convention poll the firm had done. But on the other hand, that 5 point margin is smaller than the trio of polls that followed throughout the rest of September.

Changes (Oct. 9)
State	Before	After
New Hampshire	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean
West Virginia	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain

There isn't anything out of the newly established, post-Lehman ordinary in the blue states today. Well, other than West Virginia*, which isn't really blue, but got a heck of a lot closer today by moving fairly deeply into the toss up McCain category toward Obama. Now the charge has been leveled against ARG that that poll is or will be an outlier. Much of that has centered on the 55/35 Democratic/Republican party identification breakdown of their sample. Is that steep? Actually, it isn't as one of our great readers/commenters, Jack, discovered this afternoon. That 55% number for the Democrats in West Virginia is actually slightly below where voter registration was in the state for both the 2006 midterm elections and the primaries earlier this year. Is that a successful rebuttal to the outlier argument? No, but it does remove the party ID of the sample as a culprit.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Also, like Pennsylvania and Michigan before it, New Hampshire, has slipped into the Obama lean category. And that means that the lean states for Obama stretch all the way to the victory line of Colorado on the Electoral College Spectrum. And though the 311-227 electoral vote tally is the same as it was a day ago, McCain is down to but one lean state, Montana, and is now defending a group of toss up states totalling 69 electoral votes. The Obama toss up category is now down to the trio of states which had been the closest -- Virginia, Nevada and Ohio -- along with Colorado. The Illinois senator is now relatively safe in states totalling 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the number needed to win the race.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

But back to Virginia, Nevada and Ohio for a moment. Over the last week Virginia has moved into the blue and has gotten closer and closer to Colorado on the Spectrum and behind the scenes, statistically speaking. But the Old Dominion has been supplanted on the list of the three closest states by Florida. And that means that Virginia is now off of the Watch List; it is not vulnerable to an imminent move into McCain territory with the addition of new polling. Florida, Nevada and Ohio certainly are though. And it is Florida that would be next on the list of states to switch sides of the partisan line if the Obama push continues in the polling ahead.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Virginia is joined by North Carolina as states now off the Watch List. And while those two peripheral South states leave, Indiana now comes on board, switching places with North Carolina. What that means is that if this was next week when the toss up/lean line is dropped to three points, Indiana would be a McCain lean and North Carolina would be a McCain toss up. Both, however, would be on the Watch List to potentially change categories with new polling. Those two states along with Missouri are all tightly grouped at the moment, but while Missouri and Indiana have had contradicting results lately, North Carolina appears to be moving toward Obama and the partisan line. The fact that McCain is having to defend those state period speaks volumes about the state of this race. Missouri is understandable. The Show-Me state has been close in the past, but Indiana and North Carolina have not been Democrat-friendly states on the presidential level for a long time. Neither has gone with a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Indiana hasn't gone Democratic since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide and North Carolina has been with the GOP for a generation. The Tar Heel state hasn't given the nod to a Democrat on the presidential level since Carter's 1976 win in the state. Periodically throughout this campaign, the discussion here and elsewhere has centered on Obama's ability to change the map. Well, the map has changed. It may not be Obama per se, but it has changed.

*I should make a note on West Virginia. It shot up the list today and is now in line behind only Florida as a toss up on the McCain side of the partisan line. The methodological shift earlier in the week has a lot to do with that though. So you have to take that positioning with a grain of salt. The most recent poll is given the most weight and all the other past polls are discounted in our average. When the most recent poll is a potential outlier it can cause a fairly large shift. That is doubly true when there are as few polls as there are in West Virginia. As we discussed yesterday, West Virginia is a possibility for Obama in the case of a landslide, but this poll and the effect it had on the average may be overstating things a bit.


Recent Posts:
Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

The Electoral College Map (10/9/08)

Update: The Electoral College from a Different Angle

Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

Another slow polling day has reader, SarahLawrenceScott, asking:

"Supposing we do get a true Obama landslide, which state or states listed as McCain solid or lean are most likely to go for Obama?"

Indeed. What do you think? With momentum now squarely behind Obama, the discussion has shifted to how high Obama's ceiling is in this election. We already have an idea of where the McCain campaign is aiming here. After the Michigan pullout last week, the Arizona senator's campaign indicated that they were targetting Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But can Obama break into any of those lean or strong states of McCain's?

Let me weigh in here so that I'm not the first to comment on my own post.

It may be best to remove the ones that won't go for Obama first. I would eliminate the far right column on the Electoral College Spectrum. In the next column over, I'd take out Arizona, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska and Texas.

That leaves us with Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Dakota, and the two lean states, Montana and West Virginia.

You have three "groups" there: the southern states, the plains states and West Virginia. The Mountain state has been in the mid- to upper single digits for McCain since the conventions, but I just don't see that one going to Obama. If neither Kerry nor Gore could win there, I'm hard-pressed to see Obama succeeding.

But the other five states offer some interesting possibilities. With the exception of Mississippi, all of the states spent at least some time in the toss up category on FHQ's map. Obama had some sizable level of support in those states at certain points. I think Montana and North Dakota stand out there. The three southern states would have to see very heavy African American turnout to make it interesting.

But, and here's the thing, if this race looks in 26 days time like it does now, does that affect turnout? Would likely and potential McCain supporters stay home knowing he would not win anyway? This is where the potential for inreased African American participation in those three southern states is consequential. The trigger mechanism -- voting for the first African American presidential nominee -- is still there for those voters even if the race seems like a done deal. Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina are the most likely to go for Obama in the South and you could perhaps throw in Louisiana as well.

Increased African American participation or not, depressed conservative turnout could certainly tilt a few more states outside the South to Obama, and I think Montana and North Dakota are the most likely.

Your thoughts? The comments section awaits.


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Wednesday was a surprisingly slow polling day, especially for a week day. And for the first time in a while you'll see a group of polls that is majority red. Sadly for the McCain campaign, all that red is from one state, Oklahoma, where a slew of backlogged polls got some attention from the poll-gathering sites. When that factor is accounted for, the impact of that red diminishes.

Other than the Sooner state, Georgia is the only other red state on the board for the day. The Peach state has tightened some recently, but it doesn't look as if the gap between McCain and Obama there (Well, here actually, for me.) will close enough to make it any more competitive. Obama is running behind Jim Martin's numbers in the senate race pitting Martin against incumbent, Saxby Chambliss. Much of Martin's gains recently can probably be attributed to the financial crisis. Chambliss pulled the classic "he was against it before he was for it" move on the bailout plan, and anecdotally speaking, some Georgia Republicans aren't happy about that switch. But Obama and Martin aren't on the same page on that issue and that could be part of the answer as to why the Illinois senator is lagging behind Martin's numbers against Chambliss. Of course, early voting had a disproportionate number of African American voters compared to their share of the total electorate so far in Georgia. And as Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight demonstrated earlier this week, that could have a real effect on the margin McCain has in Georgia should those numbers persist.

New Polls (Oct. 8)
State	Poll	Margin
Georgia	Rasmussen	+9
Minnesota	Rasmussen	+7
Oklahoma	Tv Poll (9/7)	+38
Oklahoma	Tv Poll (9/14)	+42.2
Oklahoma	Tv Poll (9/21)	+39.3
Oklahoma	Tv Poll (9/27)	+41.1
Oklahoma	Tv Poll (10/5)	+36.4
Pennsylvania	West Chester Univ.	+10.3
Wisconsin	Research 2000	+10

On the blue side of the ledger, Obama continues to look more and more comfortable in Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sure, the seven point margin Rasmussen found in Minnesota is below where some of the other polling firms have found the race in the state to be recently, but it is a continuation of the mounting evidence against the validity of that Survey USA poll out this past weekend -- the one that showed McCain up a point. The Rasmussen poll is the one closest to where FHQ's graduated weighted average of Minnesota is, though. [...I'm just saying.]

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Taken together, though, none of these polls are in any of our toss up states, and that nearly eliminates the potential for changes to the electoral vote distribution. In fact, there was no change to that tally. The most likely candidates for change of the electoral vote totals are Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and none of those states were polled yesterday (Oh, but PPP already has a poll out from Virginia this morning.). Obama, then, maintains the same 311-227 electoral vote edge that he held in yesterday's map.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	NV-5 (291/252)	TX-34 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	MS-6 (103)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (97)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (349/200)	AR-6 (94)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (360/189)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	WV-5 (163)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Sadly for us, the lack of any polls in those four states, means that there aren't that many changes to the Electoral College Spectrum or the Watch List. The latter is unchanged and the former saw only Oklahoma move, jumping Idaho in the rankings. The Sooner state and the Gem state are battling it out to see who can be the most supportive of McCain behind Utah. Actually, based on all those Tv Poll surveys, Oklahoma is now just behind Utah, a fraction of a point from overtaking it as the most intensely Republican state in this presidential race.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Carolina	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The dynamics of the race remain the same, then. That leaves the McCain campaign just 26 days to figure out a way to shift the momentum back toward the Arizona senator. And with just one more debate -- now a little less than a week off -- the number of high profile opportunities to do that are waning.


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I'm a couple of days late getting this up, but one of our loyal readers and commenters, Scott, updated his examination of the electoral college over the weekend, and I thought I'd put a map to it so we can "see" the shifts. For those who missed the first version, you can find it here. Here's the premise (...from that post):

There are two basic questions being asked:
1) Is one of the candidates above the 50% mark in a state currently?

2) Has one of the candidates been the only one to surpass 50% in any reputable state poll?
If the answer is yes to both, then that implies there has been some consistency to the candidate being or having been over 50% in those averages. Those are the states that are designated solid states for either McCain or Obama.

If the answer to the second question is yes but the answer to the first question is no, that state is a lean state. In other words, there is some potential there for one of the candidates to cross that threshold. It has happened before. However, that support has either waned and is dormant or is latent in the current period.

If the answers to both questions are no, then that state is a toss up according to this metric. In this scenario, neither candidate has demonstrated the level of support in the polls to translate to an outright win in the state. As Scott put it:

"The idea is that if a state consistently polls 50-47, regardless of the methodology of the poll or the state of the national race, it's very hard for the trailing candidate to win. But if a state has a lot of polls like 46-40, but the leading candidate never breaks 50, the trailing candidate has a chance."

He added:
"There are two different ways a state can end up a toss-up. One is to have neither candidate reach 50 in any poll since McCain became the presumptive nominee. The other is to have both candidates do it, but to have neither break 50 in the pollster.com average."

And how does this change things on the map?

Changes (Sept. 23 - Oct. 6)
State	Before	After
New Jersey	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Oregon	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Washington	Obama lean	Strong Obama
Nevada	Toss Up	Obama lean
Florida	McCain lean	Toss Up
North Carolina	McCain lean	Toss Up
West Virginia	Toss Up	McCain lean
Arkansas	McCain lean	Strong McCain
Montana	McCain lean	Strong McCain

As Scott said in the comments to the original post the other day:

"There are more toss-up EV's than previously, not less, but all of the gain came out of McCain's lean totals. In addition, Nevada moves out of toss-up status toward Obama, and New Mexico stands right on the edge of doing so."

[Click Map to Enlarge]

What we get, though, is a much darker map. The McCain lean states and the strong McCain states sum to 185 electoral votes while the total of the comparable Obama categories is at a nearly foolproof 269 electoral votes. As is the case in many of the other electoral college analyses out there, the blue states and most of the battleground states are moving toward Obama and some traditionally red states are lining up behind McCain.

Good stuff, Scott. Thanks again.


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Well, this one is bad timing on several levels.

But the GOP sure could have used this story about a month ago at their convention. It would have gone nicely with Sarah Palin's jab at community organizers. Post-Lehman, this doesn't do much for the McCain campaign, though.

It certainly does make people turn a skeptical eye toward massive voter registration drives, triggering increased discussions about voter ID requirements as the good folks at Election Updates rightly point out.


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