The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)

Monday brought a welcomed infusion of survey data from mostly battleground states. In all, 14 new polls from 12 states made even clearer our picture of the race for the White House. And as the table below can attest, it is an almost entirely blue picture. Of all the toss up states, Missouri and Indiana had been the most solidly McCain in the wake of the most recent Obama surge in state level polling. Indiana remains as solidly McCain as a toss up can be (In fact, if the line separating the toss up and lean categories were dropped to a 3 point margin, as it will be later in the week, Indiana would turn darker red by the slimmest of margins.), but Missouri has gone in the other direction since the middle part of last week. Of the four polls released from the Show-Me state in that time, three have show Obama ahead by anywhere from 1 to 8 points. The 8 point edge in the Survey USA poll out yesterday seems like an outlier given the totality of polling information from the state as well as in the context of these most recent polls. Outlier, though it may be, this poll is indicative of a larger trend toward Obama in Missouri. The mid- to lower single digit leads for McCain in the aftermath of the GOP convention have dissipated and been replaced with more Obama-friendly numbers since the Lehman collapse kicked off the economic crisis.

New Polls (Oct. 13)
State	Poll	Margin
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+5
Georgia	Survey USA	+8
Missouri	Rasmussen/FOX	+3
Missouri	Survey USA	+8
New Jersey	Survey USA	+15
New York	Survey USA	+33
North Carolina	Rasmussen/FOX	0
North Dakota	Forum	+2
Ohio	Marist	+4
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Oklahoma	TvPoll	+31.1
Oregon	Survey USA	+17
Pennsylvania	Marist	+12
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	+3

Other than Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina are noteworthy. On a gut level, both "feel" closer than they did just a week ago. North Carolina did seem to peak last week and has since turned in a run of margins well within the margin of error. However, any North Carolina number less than two for McCain or anything leaning in Obama's direction is narrowing the gap in the Tar Heel state. So, while things look a little closer in North Carolina, given the last few polls, the truth is that it is still closing. The same sort of thing is playing out in Ohio. The Buckeye state crested in the the Obama economic surge period, but has settled into an Obama +2-5 point range that is occasionally peppered with a positive McCain poll.

Changes (Oct. 13)
State	Before	After
New Jersey	Obama lean	Strong Obama
North Dakota	Strong McCain	McCain lean
Oregon	Obama lean	Strong Obama

And what about that North Dakota poll? [Yeah, why did I wait so long to talk about that one?] The North Dakota poll from Forum led us into the week with a surprisingly positive Obama result. Unlike West Virginia last week, though, North Dakota is a bit more insulated by more polling data. In other words, it wasn't as vulnerable to a (potential) outlier as the Mountain state was. Yet, North Dakota did move into the McCain lean category, joining Montana as the only other lean state for the Arizona senator. North Dakota, then, is more competitive as a result -- at least according to our average -- but the number of days left are waning and the Peace Garden state is likely too far out of the Illinois senator's reach. If this poll is, in fact, indicative of what is happening in North Dakota, then Obama's North Dakota pull out, has not had the same effect on his numbers there, as McCain's in Michigan after the Arizona senator move resources out of the Wolverine state. Granted, one of those got a touch more press than the other.

Other than North Dakota, New Jersey and Oregon joined Iowa in shifting into the strong Obama category. What we are seeing is the continued movement across the map toward Obama. The darkest red states are impervious for the most part and we see that in the fact that there are so few lean states on the McCain side of the partisan line (see Electoral College Spectrum below). There continue to be two types of McCain states: solid McCain and toss up. In other words, there's a group of states that are safe for McCain, but outside of those states, the Arizona senator's potentially vulnerable. Those McCain toss ups have for the most part shift toward Obama, Obama toss ups have shifted toward Obama leans and Obama leans have shifted toward strong Obama states. But there remain three distinct tiers of states on the Obama side of the partisan line. If the line between strong states and lean states were dropped today to, say, 7 points, Minnesota would be the only state to move (into the strong Obama category). The polling movement during debate season, then, has gone as expected as the campaign draws ever closer to its conclusion. What I mean is that the categories of states are largely solidified now and there are natural breaks between them.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Despite the moves, nothing has really been altered in terms of the distribution of electoral votes between the two candidates. Obama moves 22 electoral votes onto safer ground, but still holds 264 electoral votes between his lean and strong states. McCain on the other hand, maintains comfortable leads in states with 158 electoral votes. That would leave McCain in a position of having to sweep all the toss up states to clear the 270 electoral vote hurdle.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	WA-11 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
NY-31 (45)	IA-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MD-10 (55)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
DE-3 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

As Scott pointed out in the comments to yesterday's post, that seems unlikely. But to win without sweeping the toss ups, McCain would have to pick up Pennsylvania. The Arizona senator could cede Colorado and Virginia to Obama, swing Ohio and Pennsylvania and only get to 268, which is obviously short of the goal. But pulling Nevada in as well, would get McCain over the top. Is Pennsylvania an attainable target though? That's the question. Recent polling does not give him much of a shot. The type of North Carolina and Ohio movement discussed above is not present in Pennsylvania. Whereas the the Tar Heel and Buckeye states peaked and settled into a new equilibrium below that peak point, Pennsylvania has bounced and plateaued in the lower double digits for Obama.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Keystone state isn't even on the Watch List. In fact, Pennsylvania is moving deeper into the Obama lean category with each new poll that is released. But the ten states above are on the list of states most likely to move in the event that new polling is released. And there is a lot of blue there. The lack of red of any shade again underlines that idea that the McCain side of things has solidified. The only thing left to settle is if those pink toss ups will shift toward Obama. Florida is the most likely at this point. To put the Florida situation in the terminology of a baseball pennant chase, the Sunshine state now has a magic number of 7. If a new poll were to give Obama a 7 point advantage, Florida would turn blue. That's down from 10 points before the Rasmussen poll was added in last night.

Just to be fair here, Nevada and Ohio are also close to changing sides. What are their respective magic numbers. McCain would need just a two point poll margin to shift Nevada to his side of the partisan line. Ohio, though, is a different story. We have much more data in the case of the Buckeye state, and thus a pretty good idea of how it is leaning. In other words, it, in all likelihood, takes more than just one poll to shift Ohio. If one poll were to do it, though, it would have to give McCain a 9 point edge. Given our discussion above -- about how Ohio had basically averaged one positive poll in the lower single digits for McCain recently -- that is very unlikely.

The story today is similar to what it was yesterday (and the day before and so on): McCain has to find a way to shift the race in his direction. The problem is that he is running out of time.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)

A Follow-Up on ACORN

The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)

A trio of new polls was released Sunday. All three were blue and all three did little to change the perception of the overall race or the race in each of the three states. Obama is clearly ahead in California, pulling away in Pennsylvania and has edged out in front in Nevada of late. Pennsylvania is looking increasingly difficult for McCain to seize and without the Keystone state, in addition to the Michigan pull out, the path to 270 has limited options. Even if Nevada were to shift back into McCain territory, it would do little more than a tamp down a runaway Obama victory in the electoral college. With just five electoral votes, Nevada isn't going to swing this election back in McCain's direction unless other states come with it. Namely, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. But with each new poll, even those states seem difficult "gets" for the Arizona senator.

New Polls (Oct. 12)
State	Poll	Margin
California	Rasmussen	+16
Nevada	Mason-Dixon	+2
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+12

The three new polls, then, do nothing to change the dynamics of a race that has become rather static over the last week or so. Obama is ahead nationally and in most of the crucial battleground states, but with just one more debate between the two major party contenders, we have almost entered the "outside factors" phase of the race. In other words, it will take outside factors to disrupt the race in a way similar to the AIG/Lehman collapse to reshape the race at a time when both candidates will be making their closing arguments to voters.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The survey data out today is moderately predictable. Both California and Nevada are within a couple of points of FHQ's weighted average in each. The Pennsylvania numbers from Muhlenberg are outside of that state's average, but when we consider just the polls over the last three weeks -- since the economic crisis became a crisis -- the margin seems far more understandable. All it really does is move Pennsylvania further into the blue and further away from McCain. In the end, none of the three polls does anything to shift any of the electoral votes between categories or between candidates. Obama remains ahead by 84 electoral votes, and nothing in recent polling indicates that margin will do anything but get larger.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Of course, that easier to say when you are trying to get through a terrifically slow weekend for polling. If anything, the new week should be welcomed with open arms simply because it is likely to bring an increase in the frequency of polling. The states below --unchanged from a day ago -- are the ones where changes in categories, or more importantly for our purposes, changes in who is ahead are the most likely to occur. Florida is tops on the list. And if we know anything about our measure here, it is that when and if the Sunshine state turns blue, it is likely there to stay. Even with all the past polls being discounted according to when they were released, our model is still on the conservative side. So when changes occur they are significant and overwhelmingly likely to hold.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

I failed to go over the Electoral College Spectrum because it didn't shift at all from yesterday. The states in that middle column from Colorado down to Florida are where the real battle in this race is now. And McCain pretty much has to sweep all five to win. I say pretty much simply because there are other scenarios where McCain wins, but this one is the most likely. And the probability of that occurence is dropping with each passing day. 22 left to go.


Recent Posts:
A Follow-Up on ACORN

The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

A Follow-Up on ACORN

Earlier in the week I linked to a story on a raid of the Las Vegas office of ACORN. At issue was concern over voter registration irregularities. Some folks took issue with the way I chose to frame the way the story might be perceived. Speaking of framing, it seems that original story was lacking a vital part: ACORN's side of the story. As it turns out it was the ACORN folks who internally identified the people involved and turned them in. [Sadly, Project Vote's site is down right now. Not just that story; the whole site.] The Trail at the Washington Post added this:

"ACORN officials said they were stunned by the search because they had unilaterally identified and flagged suspicious voter registration cards to the county elections board starting in July and had been cooperating with authorities to cull bad information and fire workers who collected that information, said Brian Mellor, senior counsel for Project Vote."

In a close election this would probably be a bigger deal. [And it wasn't too long ago we were talking about this one being close.] Granted, Nevada is close, but the more that comes out about this particular ACORN situation and others, the more it seems like a drop in the bucket sort of scenario.

H/t: Elections Update for the link.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)

The big question of Saturday -- an otherwise slow polling day? Did that new Ohio poll from the University of Cincinnati pull the Buckeye state back into the group of McCain states? [What? You think I'm going to answer that one right away?] What has been established in Ohio -- post-Lehman -- has been a range of results between +8 for Obama to +2 for McCain. In this Cincinnati poll, then, we have a result at the extreme McCain end of that range in Ohio. If we simply take the average of the polls during the three week period since the economic situation began, Obama leads the Buckeye state by two and a half points. That's essentially, two points ahead of where FHQ's graduated weighted average currently has the state. Yes, that seems like Obama has a rather tenuous grasp on the Buckeye state. Well, he does, but it isn't perhaps as vulnerable as you might think.

John McCain would need a series of polls favoring him or one poll, given the current numbers, giving him an edge of five points to bring Ohio back across the partisan line. Yeah, that five point margin doesn't seem like much, but in light of the discussion above about the range of polls in Ohio recently, it does is probabalistically outside of the realm of possibility. One big burst for McCain appears unlikely and the Arizona senator is averaging a little over one positive poll a week in Ohio. In other words, a series of polls favoring McCain in Ohio also seems unlikely in the context of the current environment. It isn't as if McCain hasn't been trying, but somehow the McCain-Palin ticket has to find a way to change the dynamic of the race, if not nationally, then in a few toss up states that could make a difference. We'll discuss those states below with the Electoral College Spectrum.

New Polls (Oct. 11)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Survey USA	+27
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	+10
Delaware	West Chester Univ.	+17
Ohio	Univ. of Cincinnati	+2

Other than Ohio, the only other poll of note on Saturday was PPP's poll of Colorado. I don't want to give short shrift to Alabama and Delaware, but is anyone really surprised by either of those results? Both appear to be in the bag for their respective candidates. Colorado, though, is one of a handful of Bush states from 2004 that may turn blue in November. The more double digit leads polls give Obama in the Centennial state, the better the chances of that happening are. [Well, that meaning Colorado staying blue and switching parties from one presidential cycle to the next.] Like Ohio, though, this PPP poll is at the extreme end of the range of polling out of Colorado, but in this case toward Obama. The range of results in Colorado since the Lehman collapse is slightly wider than the one in Ohio, stretching from +10 for Obama to +3 for McCain. Both are outliers but each is basically equidistant from the average of all the polls over the last three weeks. At +4 for Obama, that average is right on the cut off between what FHQ considers a toss up and a lean state. [And would be safe after that line is moved down to 3 points later this coming week.] And that's indicative of the state of this race. If the Victory Line state -- the state where each candidate passes or would pass 270 electoral votes -- is four points into Obama territory that says something about the difficult position John McCain is in right now. For the record, that four points is the average of polls over the last three weeks -- an Obama period. Over the course of the race since Super Tuesday back in February, Obama holds an edge of nearly three points in our weighted average.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The polls on Saturday didn't do much to move electoral votes on the map. In fact, for the second straight day, the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged. Obama continues to hold 311-227 electoral vote advantage in the projected electoral college tally. And as I said above, it is incumbent upon the McCain campaign to shift the momentum, if not nationally, then in the handful of the closest states. That means going on the offensive in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and defending Florida and North Carolina. The catch for the McCain campaign is that there does not seem to be a silver bullet that hits all of those states at once. They have focused on Obama's judgment and character this past week, but that has not put a dent in the polling advantages that Obama has held, either nationally or on the state level. And with just one debate left, the opportunities for McCain to stem (and reverse) the tide are decreasing.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List stays the same today as well. As an extension of our target state/toss up state discussion, we should talk about the general trends in each. The momentum is squarely behind Obama in each of the states mentioned above. As such, Florida is the state to keep the closest eye on. The Sunshine state has continued to inch toward Obama over the course of the last couple of weeks. And as I said yesterday, continued pro-Obama polling will push Florida into the blue sooner rather than later. One poll would do it as well if that poll was +10 for Obama, but that is not as likely, but isn't necessarily outside of the realm of possibility.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

As we head into a new week -- the week of the final presidential debate of 2008 -- the economy continues to dominate the news, but the McCain campaign has attempted to shift that discussion. And Congresman John Lewis has added another layer to this by comparing the McCain campaign's tactics over the last week to George Wallace's during the 1960s. That bombshell has reverberated around the Sunday morning shows this morning and is likely to be a topic of discussion during the first part of the week. The question now is whether that discussion sustains itself long enough to potentially work its way into the debate on Wednesday night. That is the domestic-themed debate and we have yet to see any discussion of race in these debates, much less the campaign. The Obama campaign has certainly attempted to steer clear of the issue, but it will interesting to see if it becomes a part of Wednesday's debate.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/10/08)

Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

The Electoral College Map (10/11/08)

Friday was another slow day for new polls, but the ones that were released didn't lack interest. The big news was the new Insider Advantage survey of Georgia, a poll that shows the race has narrowed quite a bit. In fact, that poll runs about seven points under where FHQ's graduated weighted average had the state prior to the poll's release. We had talked about Georgia earlier in the week and the idea that Obama's numbers in the Peach state were running behind Democratic senate candidate, Jim Martin. That's still the case, but it is only a handful of points now. Martin is knotted in a race with incumbent Saxby Chambliss according to that same Insider Advantage poll. If Georgia voters are in a "throw the rascals out" mood on election day, things could get interesting.

[Granted, I say this from a rather selfish vantage point. I'm more interested in competitive races where I am than blowouts. It's more fun for a political scientist that way.]

New Polls (Oct. 10)
State	Poll	Margin
Florida	Research 2000	+5
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+3
Iowa	Survey USA	+13
Michigan	Rossman/MIRS	+5
North Carolina	Marshall/WSOC-TV	+1.8
Ohio	Insider Advantage	+5
Oregon	Rasmussen	+11
Vermont	Rasmussen	+33

But the ominous signs for McCain on Friday weren't confined to just Georgia or rallies where he seemed to claim Obama wasn't some to be scared of as president. Florida and Ohio both turned in yet more results positive for Obama. [And I should note that I wrongly reported the numbers for the Strategic Vision poll of Florida yesterday. The Obama advantage in that poll was +8, not +7 as was listed in the table of polls.] Ohio has already crossed the partisan line to join the Obama states on the board and Florida continues to move in that direction as well. What we know about the recent polling in Florida and the methodology here is that when or if that switch takes place, it will likely be for good.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But it wasn't all bad for McCain. Michigan seems closer with the MIRS poll showing the Illinois senator's lead at just five -- a day after Rasmussen has the state at +16 for Obama. However, that poll comes with a caveat: it is a week old and likely didn't get a full picture of the reaction to McCain pulling resources from the Wolverine state. North Carolina, then was the lone survey that was positive for McCain. But that's indicative of how the perceptions are in this race currently. This looks great for McCain given the slew of polls lately that have had Obama ahead, but if you'd have told the McCain campaign a year ago that they would win the nomination and would have to defend North Carolina, they likely would not have liked their chances in November.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

None of the polls changed anything on the maps or in the Electoral College Spectrum, though. If our averages reflect how the states will go on November 4, then Obama would win with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227. As we discussed, however, Florida is well within position to switch over to Obama. Like Virginia the other week, a poll with a 10 point margin in Obama's favor would just push the Sunshine state into the blue. Now, is that realistic? I hesitate to say since the last time I did a similar exercise -- in Virginia's case -- I surmised that it was not. But, the next day brought a 10 point margin in Virginia. Is it feasible, though? The ceiling for Obama in Florida during this post-Lehman surge in the polls has been 8 points on three separate occasions. From that perspective, 10 seems a bit much, but we'll see. With the way polling data has been coming in this weekend, we won't likely know until early in the week ahead.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Needless to say, Florida continues to be on the Watch List as do all the other 10 states on the list yesterday. The only addition is Georgia and the Peach state moves on based on the strength of that Insider Advantage poll. Georgia is still out of Obama's reach as it is positioned on the Electoral College Spectrum above, but in a landslide election, the Peach state is increasingly likely to get caught up in an Obama wave, should one occur.


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Well, the polling day started out slow, but by mid-afternoon it picked up a head of steam with ARG's release of new survey data from from seven states. The biggest news there? West Virginia giving eight points to Obama. The Mountain state, not content to see its eastern neighbor provide the Illinois senator with an eight point edge, followed suit in the afternoon with an equivalent margin. If only it worked that way. Well, it sort of has in recent days. The shift toward Obama has worked like contagion across much of the US, spreading through the Obama lean and battleground states and a handful of McCain lean and strong states as well.

New Polls (Oct. 9)
State	Poll	Margin
Alabama	Capital Survey Research Center	+19.5
Alaska	Ivan Moore	+17
Florida	Rasmussen	+3
Florida	Strategic Vision	+8
Georgia	Strategic Vision	+7
Indiana	Rasmussen	+7
Michigan	Rasmussen	+16
Minnesota	ARG	+1
Missouri	ARG	+3
Montana	ARG	+5
New Hampshire	ARG	+9
New Jersey	Rasmussen	+8
North Carolina	Rasmussen	+1
North Carolina	Civitas	+5
Ohio	ARG	+3
Ohio	Strategic Vision	+2
Pennsylvania	Strategic Vision	+14
Texas	ARG	+19
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+8
West Virginia	ARG	+8

In total, Thursday brought 20 polls from 17 states. And once again, the list it chock full of blue. However, the list is not without notable red. The series of ARG polls had McCain striking back with a lead in Missouri to counter a couple of Obama leads in the Show-Me state in the last few days. The Arizona senator also got something good out of Indiana, where Rasmussen shows McCain up 7. But in Georgia and Montana things got tighter. The Peach state still seems far enough beyond Obama's grasp at this point for McCain, but the ARG poll of Montana offered a mixed tale. On the one hand, it counterintuitively increased from the post-convention poll the firm had done. But on the other hand, that 5 point margin is smaller than the trio of polls that followed throughout the rest of September.

Changes (Oct. 9)
State	Before	After
New Hampshire	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean
West Virginia	McCain lean	Toss Up McCain

There isn't anything out of the newly established, post-Lehman ordinary in the blue states today. Well, other than West Virginia*, which isn't really blue, but got a heck of a lot closer today by moving fairly deeply into the toss up McCain category toward Obama. Now the charge has been leveled against ARG that that poll is or will be an outlier. Much of that has centered on the 55/35 Democratic/Republican party identification breakdown of their sample. Is that steep? Actually, it isn't as one of our great readers/commenters, Jack, discovered this afternoon. That 55% number for the Democrats in West Virginia is actually slightly below where voter registration was in the state for both the 2006 midterm elections and the primaries earlier this year. Is that a successful rebuttal to the outlier argument? No, but it does remove the party ID of the sample as a culprit.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Also, like Pennsylvania and Michigan before it, New Hampshire, has slipped into the Obama lean category. And that means that the lean states for Obama stretch all the way to the victory line of Colorado on the Electoral College Spectrum. And though the 311-227 electoral vote tally is the same as it was a day ago, McCain is down to but one lean state, Montana, and is now defending a group of toss up states totalling 69 electoral votes. The Obama toss up category is now down to the trio of states which had been the closest -- Virginia, Nevada and Ohio -- along with Colorado. The Illinois senator is now relatively safe in states totalling 264 electoral votes, just six shy of the number needed to win the race.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	ND-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	IA-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MD-10 (24)	OR-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
DE-3 (27)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

But back to Virginia, Nevada and Ohio for a moment. Over the last week Virginia has moved into the blue and has gotten closer and closer to Colorado on the Spectrum and behind the scenes, statistically speaking. But the Old Dominion has been supplanted on the list of the three closest states by Florida. And that means that Virginia is now off of the Watch List; it is not vulnerable to an imminent move into McCain territory with the addition of new polling. Florida, Nevada and Ohio certainly are though. And it is Florida that would be next on the list of states to switch sides of the partisan line if the Obama push continues in the polling ahead.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
North Dakota	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Virginia is joined by North Carolina as states now off the Watch List. And while those two peripheral South states leave, Indiana now comes on board, switching places with North Carolina. What that means is that if this was next week when the toss up/lean line is dropped to three points, Indiana would be a McCain lean and North Carolina would be a McCain toss up. Both, however, would be on the Watch List to potentially change categories with new polling. Those two states along with Missouri are all tightly grouped at the moment, but while Missouri and Indiana have had contradicting results lately, North Carolina appears to be moving toward Obama and the partisan line. The fact that McCain is having to defend those state period speaks volumes about the state of this race. Missouri is understandable. The Show-Me state has been close in the past, but Indiana and North Carolina have not been Democrat-friendly states on the presidential level for a long time. Neither has gone with a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Indiana hasn't gone Democratic since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide and North Carolina has been with the GOP for a generation. The Tar Heel state hasn't given the nod to a Democrat on the presidential level since Carter's 1976 win in the state. Periodically throughout this campaign, the discussion here and elsewhere has centered on Obama's ability to change the map. Well, the map has changed. It may not be Obama per se, but it has changed.

*I should make a note on West Virginia. It shot up the list today and is now in line behind only Florida as a toss up on the McCain side of the partisan line. The methodological shift earlier in the week has a lot to do with that though. So you have to take that positioning with a grain of salt. The most recent poll is given the most weight and all the other past polls are discounted in our average. When the most recent poll is a potential outlier it can cause a fairly large shift. That is doubly true when there are as few polls as there are in West Virginia. As we discussed yesterday, West Virginia is a possibility for Obama in the case of a landslide, but this poll and the effect it had on the average may be overstating things a bit.


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Open Thread: An Obama Landslide: How Far Could It Go?

Another slow polling day has reader, SarahLawrenceScott, asking:

"Supposing we do get a true Obama landslide, which state or states listed as McCain solid or lean are most likely to go for Obama?"

Indeed. What do you think? With momentum now squarely behind Obama, the discussion has shifted to how high Obama's ceiling is in this election. We already have an idea of where the McCain campaign is aiming here. After the Michigan pullout last week, the Arizona senator's campaign indicated that they were targetting Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But can Obama break into any of those lean or strong states of McCain's?

Let me weigh in here so that I'm not the first to comment on my own post.

It may be best to remove the ones that won't go for Obama first. I would eliminate the far right column on the Electoral College Spectrum. In the next column over, I'd take out Arizona, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska and Texas.

That leaves us with Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Dakota, and the two lean states, Montana and West Virginia.

You have three "groups" there: the southern states, the plains states and West Virginia. The Mountain state has been in the mid- to upper single digits for McCain since the conventions, but I just don't see that one going to Obama. If neither Kerry nor Gore could win there, I'm hard-pressed to see Obama succeeding.

But the other five states offer some interesting possibilities. With the exception of Mississippi, all of the states spent at least some time in the toss up category on FHQ's map. Obama had some sizable level of support in those states at certain points. I think Montana and North Dakota stand out there. The three southern states would have to see very heavy African American turnout to make it interesting.

But, and here's the thing, if this race looks in 26 days time like it does now, does that affect turnout? Would likely and potential McCain supporters stay home knowing he would not win anyway? This is where the potential for inreased African American participation in those three southern states is consequential. The trigger mechanism -- voting for the first African American presidential nominee -- is still there for those voters even if the race seems like a done deal. Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina are the most likely to go for Obama in the South and you could perhaps throw in Louisiana as well.

Increased African American participation or not, depressed conservative turnout could certainly tilt a few more states outside the South to Obama, and I think Montana and North Dakota are the most likely.

Your thoughts? The comments section awaits.


Recent Posts:
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