The Electoral College Map (10/17/08)

Thursday was slow poll day and none of the polls released today were from particularly friendly territory for the McCain campaign. Connecticut, New York, and Oregon are expected to be blue states and nothing out of Pennsylvania recently has indicated that the Keystone state won't be as well. In Ohio and Virginia, though, there was some interesting data.

New Polls (Oct. 16)
State	Poll	Margin
Connecticut	Rasmussen	+17
New York	Rasmussen	+20
Ohio	Rasmussen	0
Oregon	Rasmussen	+13
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+16
Virginia	Chris. Newport Univ.	+6

The tie in Rasmussen's survey of the Buckeye state is interesting in that it breaks from what we have seen out of Ohio recently. But in the context of the other Rasmussen polls of late, it isn't a stretch. Even in the post-Lehman environment, Obama never got higher than the two point margin earlier in the week in the Rasmussen/FOX battleground poll. Everything else from Rasmussen in Ohio has shown a race oscillating within the McCain +1 to Obama +2 range; basically a tie. Taken alone, then, this poll makes it look like Ohio is tightening some. It isn't because it was already tight. It has been this whole time. Obama just has the slight advantage now. And as I explained in yesterday's post, it is likely to stay there.

In Virgina, polls continue to provide Obama with margins outside of the margin of error. As such, the Old Dominion is slowly creeping out of the zone of competitiveness. Tomorrow's update will lower the lean/toss up line to three points to reflect the difficulty both candidates will have in making up more than three points over the final 18 days of the race. I don't want to stretch beyond the parameters of the Watch List, but Virginia would be under 1.5 points from moving into the Obama lean category with the line at three points. But that 1.5 points will be tough to break with such a short period of time until the election. Like Ohio, Virginia is close -- not as close -- but is currently favoring the junior senator from Illinois. It should also be noted that the Christopher Newport University poll has shifted 15 points since last month. Prior to the mess on Wall Street, CNU had the race in Virginia at McCain +9. That's a pretty big turnaround in just one one's time.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

With just two polls in states of consequence (Sorry, Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania. This is the hand the electoral college has dealt you in October of 2008.), there just wasn't that much of an opportunity for any further redistribution of electoral college votes. Virginia isn't even on the Watch List and wasn't expected to shift necessarily. What that does mean is that the tally remains 338-200 in favor of Obama. If FHQ's graduated weighted averages of the states reflect how each state would vote, then Obama would emerge victorious from the electoral college.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
MA-12 (26)	IA-7 (182)	NV-5 (291/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MD-10 (36)	NJ-15 (197)	OH-20 (311/247)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
NY-31 (67)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
DE-3 (70)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (77)	PA-21 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
IL-21 (98)	NM-5 (243)	WV-5 (369/174)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

The map stays the same and the Electoral College Spectrum only saw minor alterations. The race is still a battle in the states from Colorado on down to Indiana in that center column. It is within those states that this campaign is currently being waged. And as we discussed yesterday, the momentum is seemingly behind Obama in all those states save Indiana. And that may be more a function of a lack of polling in the Hoosier state over the last week or so than anything else. Even so, Indiana is closer to switching to a McCain lean than to an Obama toss up as we can see on the Watch List below. The list is unchanged since yesterday and that means that Florida, Nevada and Ohio are still the the states to keep an eye on as new polling is released.

With no new polling today from Florida or Nevada, their magic numbers don't change. It would still require a tie in the next Florida poll to push the Sunshine state back into McCain territory. And only something four points or greater in favor of McCain would turn Nevada pink. There was a new poll in Ohio today, but that tie did nothing to change the Buckeye state's magic number. It would still take one poll with a +11 point margin for McCain to swing the state.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Finally, I should say something about the Zogby Interactive numbers out today. FHQ dropped the internet-based polls from our averages recently, but I still like to look at the margins. Everything is basically in line with recent numbers out of those states, but Missouri seems a bit too pro-Obama and Ohio just slightly more pro-McCain than other polls from those states. However, the issues inherent in the methodology preclude us from using that data to determine our averages.

NOTE: Keep in mind that with the lines between categories being dropped for tomorrow's update, there is likely to be a significant shake up on the Watch List. As the lines move, so too do the states within a fraction of a point of those thresholds. I'll have more on that tomorrow.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate

Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue

The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)

On the day of the final presidential debate of 2008 there were another 16 new polls released in 12 states. And none were bigger than the three polls out of Florida. No, there's nothing out of the ordinary in those three polls given what we've seen since the economic crisis began. However, there was enough support for Barack Obama across the three to shift the Sunshine state into the blue. Now, several other sites have had Florida going for Obama for a week or more, but I've argued that when and if the state shifted here at FHQ, it would mean something. In states like Florida, where there has been a lot of polling all year, there is a tendency for our weighted averages to react slowly. For Florida, the early part of the year and even into the summer saw the establishment of a pretty clear McCain lead there. And even when the past polls were discounted, the Arizona senator still held on to a lead; a diminished one, but a lead nonetheless. In other words, when shifts occur here at FHQ -- especially in frequently polled states -- they are usually lasting changes. The worst of it, then, for the McCain campaign is that when trackers with conservative methodologies start showing vital states to the Arizona senator's electoral fortunes turning blue. [I feel the need to stress once again that the "conservative" in that last sentence refers to the statistics behind our weighted averages. It is not an ideological issue. The average is set up to react but not react too easily to new information. The attempt here is always to be as impartial as possible.]

New Polls (Oct. 15)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	CNN	+7
Florida	Datamar	+5
Florida	Insider Advantage	+4
Florida	CNN	+3
Georgia	CNN	+6
Illinois	Rasmussen	+17
Kansas	Rasmussen	+13
Massachusetts	Survey USA	+24
Massachusetts	Rasmussen	+28
Missouri	CNN	+1
Nevada	Insider Advantage	+3
New Mexico	Survey USA	+7
New Mexico	Rasmussen	+13
North Carolina	Insider Advantage	+2
Virginia	CNN	+9
West Virginia	Insider Advantage	+2

On the heels of a fiery debate performance that, at first glance didn't go over too well, this Florida situation is not a positive development for the McCain campaign. They don't need some two-bit electoral college analysis to tell them that, though. The GOP standard bearer's campaign has likely known this for a while. After pulling out of Michigan altogether a couple of weeks ago and now having the RNC pull its ads in Wisconsin to focus on "red states," there just isn't any doubt that those resources are being shifted to states like Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. All three were Bush states just four years ago.

Changes (Oct. 15)
State	Before	After
Florida	Toss Up McCain	Toss Up Obama

While the Sunshine state was the only mover of the day, that didn't mean that the rest of the polling wasn't enlightening. Again, the list is overwhelmingly blue, with the exception of a healthy, but below normal margin in Kansas and a trio of "too close" surveys from Georgia, Missouri and West Virginia.

But let's not doom and gloom it too much. There's only so much negativity this campaign can take, right? Let's shift our focus to some of those blue polls and how Obama is doing. Other than Florida, the Illinois senator is also in good shape in Massachusetts, where some surprisingly low numbers earlier in the year have given way to the typically pro-Democratic tilt of the Bay state. And among the closest states polled today, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, in addition to Florida, continue to show Obama ahead. The same is true in North Carolina as well. But the Tar Heel state is one of the few remaining McCain toss ups that has not crossed the partisan line to join Obama's coalition of states. Polling has been scant in Indiana, but the other three toss ups on McCain's side of the partisan line have all shown Obama ahead in the last week. But in a wave election, all four states are likely on the table as potential changes over the remaining 19 days of the race.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The fact that there are just four McCain toss up states left is indicative of the current state of the race. Not only is McCain now behind in every category comparison (strong to strong, lean to lean and toss up to toss up), but he has been pushed to the brink in the electoral college tally as well, teetering on the threshold between the 200s and 100s. I don't want to overstate matters too much, but if the battle over the next two and a half weeks is in North Carolina and Missouri, then the race is over. McCain's only hope is to somehow swing Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and even then he would come up two electoral votes shy of what is needed. Sweeping those three is a tall order in any election, but having to do it when Pennsylvania is moving rapidly into the darker blue, is nigh impossible.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
NY-31 (45)	IA-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MA-12 (57)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (67)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
DE-3 (70)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
IL-21 (91)	NM-5 (222)	NC-15 (364/189)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	PA-21 (243)	WV-5 (369/174)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

But that's what the McCain campaign is facing currently. And with the thresholds between categories being dropped over the weekend, the perception is only going to get worse. The Obama lean blue has already stretched into the middle column of the Electoral College Spectrum and the light blue is gradually inching downward into formerly McCain states as well. I haven't decided on where I'll shift the strong/lean line yet (wherever a natural break occurs), but the lean/toss up line will be dropped to a 3% margin. In other words, our estimation of what is an attainable amount of ground to be made up in two and a half weeks time is three points. Any state outside of that margin is going to be difficult to swing without an outside factor intervening. [Then again, changing the overall dynamic of the race depends on that also.] Colorado would turn darker blue and Indiana and West Virginia darker red. That leaves the states between Virginia and North Carolina within that range. Those six states account for 91 electoral votes and McCain would have to sweep them all plus another state to break 270. And that's another scenario that is difficult to envision in the current environment.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Though there is still some jockeying for position going on, the Watch List is essentially down to just three states now, Florida, Nevada and Ohio. Yes, you could throw Indiana in there as well, but I'll focus on just those states most likely to shift sides of the partisan line for the time being. The rest of the list is comprised of states that just are not likely at this point to switch sides. But Florida, Nevada and Ohio are. All three are within a fraction of a point in our averages of moving back toward McCain.

But what would it take to do that? What is each state's magic polling number do get that done. In Florida, there is enough McCain support in those past polls that a tie in the next poll would bring the Sunshine state back into the pink. But there has not been a tie or a pro-McCain result in Florida since the end of September. In Nevada, it would take a survey showing the Arizona senator ahead by four points to shift the Silver state toward McCain. There hasn't been a poll showing anything greater than McCain +3 since August though. Finally in Ohio, the news is a bit more grim. Again, when we have a lot of data on one state, it becomes much more difficult to shift. That is certainly the case in Ohio. It took a while for the Buckeye state to turn blue here when it had shifted on other sites, but the move here is indicative of a lasting shift. At this point, it would take one poll showing McCain ahead by 11 points to shift Ohio back to him. There just haven't been those types of margins in Ohio. The more likely route to a change is a series of polls showing McCain ahead in Ohio, but time is running out on that possibility.

Time is running out on this race, period, at this point. 19 days to go.


Recent Posts:
Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate

Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue

The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)

Live Blog and Open Thread: Final Presidential Debate

11:53pm: Well, I wanted to thank everyone for stopping by to read and comment tonight. Your participation is what makes FHQ fun. Thanks again.
Josh

10:33pm: Maybe Brian Williams misplaced that "boisterous" that he used to describe town hall debates following last week's rather tame affair between the two candidates. But I think it certainly applies to this one. Contrary to what we have typically seen from these sit-down debates, this one had some fireworks. What do you think, Joe the Plumber? Well, Joe has slipped into his Joe Sixpack cape and is off to fight for average Americans. The constant Joe refrain throughout was an interesting exchange. But the question of the hour: Who won? Honestly, I'm torn. The McCain offensive, to me, was a turn off early on, but after I got used to it, I took it all in stride. I spoke early on about whether McCain would receive a get out of jail free card on the going negative simply because it was perceived that he had to. But the answer to that question will have a large say in who actually won this one. If the attacks were normalized for everyone else, as they were in my case, then McCain may get the nod. If that's the case, though, does it change anything. Obama is seen as having the upper hand on domestic issues. Is it a blow to him if McCain was able to top him in friendly territory? And if it is, how much of a blow is it? I'm asking a lot of questions here, but this debate left many unanswered. I'll turn it over to the comments section for now. I may hang around and comment for a while, but I'd like to get the new electoral college map post out tonight. With Florida turning blue, it should offer some interesting analysis. Oh, now I'm trying to sell and hype myself simultaneously. This never ends well.

10:31pm: That is all. Well, "Good job, good job, good job, we did it" forcefully from McCain closes it. Let's see how long the McCain's hang around after this one. Of course it isn't the same as after a town hall debate.

10:29pm: Obama seems to be attempting to channel his inner-Bill Clinton in his closing remarks. It's the economy, stupid. McCain looks like he wants to offer a rebuttal to Obama on this.

10:28pm: McCain plays up the trust angle in his statements.

10:26pm: McCain ends the pre-closing statement portion on a snarky note. "There aren't enough vouchers," so we scrap the whole thing. "Got it."

10:26pm: Obama: "Senator McCain is absolutely right" returns in full force.

10:24pm: I'm guessing Obama lets the long since past McCain comments on abolishing the Department of Education pass. Perhaps that argument is being made in the Bizarro debate. That one is on C-SPAN2.

10:22pm: Obama agrees with McCain on charter schools and increased competition for public schools. But disagrees with McCain's stance on college accessibility and affordability. My student loans are listening.

10:20pm: More federal government involvement in education?

10:18pm: McCain: "It's the civil rights issue of the 21st century."

10:17pm: Question: Is declining education a national security issue?

10:16pm: Out of the troubled waters of abortion and on to education.

10:14pm: McCain is chomping at the bit to respond here at the same time Obama is trying to find common ground on this issue.

10:12pm: McCain rolls his eyes in response to Obama denying that he voted to deny care to these infants of failed abortions. Obama says there was another law on the books already dealing with that.

10:11pm: Ah, and now McCain brings up the present votes and one was on an abortion-related bill before the Illinois senate when Obama was there.

10:09pm: Obama thinks Roe v. Wade was correctly decided. Then he leans on the classic Democratic argument on the issue: choice.

10:07pm: When did Obama vote against Justice Breyer? Maybe it was a "present" vote, but I doubt it.

10:06pm: Alright, Roe v. Wade. Here we go. Supreme Court nominations. Litmus tests? McCain says no.

I apologize for skipping over the substance of that health care discussion, but there was a lot of good stuff in that exchange.

10:05pm: Awesome Freudian slip there from McCain. "Senator Government, uh, Senator Obama." High comedy.

10:04pm: Gold-plated Cadillac?

10:04pm: Welcome to the Joe Debate! Can we get this guy on stage, please?

10:01pm: I sincerely hope that Joe the Plumber is the same person as Joe Sixpack. I'll be disappointed if they aren't one in the same. But which one is the superhero name and which one is the mild-mannered reporter name. Well, I just answered that one. It would be mild-mannered plumber in this case.

10:00pm: Obama: "Here's your fine, Joe [the plumber]. Zero." McCain: "Zero?"

9:59pm: $5000 tax credit from McCain. Buy into the same coverage we get from Obama. Ah, McCain revisits the fines. Well, you knew that was coming.

9:58pm: McCain is smiling with a response to Obama seemingly at the ready. This has been more entertaining than the other debates, I'll say that.

9:56pm: On to health care.

9:55pm: "I just recited to you the benefits of that agreement." Was McCain talking to Obama or Schieffer on that one?

9:51pm: McCain goes after Obama on semantics. "He will look at -- did you get that -- look at off-shore drilling." And then he returns to free trade, stressing the Columbia agreement and Obama's not having been south of the border. Obama leans on the specifics and his understanding of the situation in response.

9:50pm: McCain has his pen out and ready for Obama's response to his line on unilaterally renegotiating NAFTA. Obama calls for a reexamination of these trade agreements.

9:48pm: How much in four years? Obama says those "bad" sources can be eliminated in ten years time.

9:47pm: New Question: Climate change and oil importation decreases. How much can you lower that level during your time in office. Canadian oil is fine, but Middle Eastern and Venezuelan oil is not according to McCain.

9:46pm: McCain is all in. Angry or not, here I come. He honestly has nothing to lose here.

9:44pm: Is Palin qualified to be president? Obama: I'll leave it up to the American people. Translation: I'm not touching that one with a ten foot pole.

9:43pm: Sorry, I got interrupted during the Biden explanation. I'll watched that back later.

9:39pm: Moving on...
...finally.

Question: People involved in either administration. Starting with the running mates.

9:36pm: ACORN has been a topic here recently. Obama flat-out denies any link between his campaign and the organization.

9:35pm: Obama is trying to work back to the issues. I don't know that this segment has helped either candidate. See, negative campaigning hurts both candidates. Oh, and McCain brings up both Bill Ayers and ACORN.

9:34pm: Yeah, this is silly now. Move on Schieffer.

9:31pm: Wow! We are definitely in the internet age. The "kill him" comments have come to the debates. I like this line of questioning, but I don't know that it necessarily have a place in a high-profile debate. I don't know. Maybe that's just a preference.

9:30pm: Are comparisons in ads the same as negative ads? That one from McCain is on thin ice.

9:28pm: "100% of your ads are negative, John." Obama does seem to take the high road here. He can afford to as the candidate in the lead. He also brushes off the town hall argument before moving on to the "turn the page" comments from the McCain campaign.

9:26pm: And here are the John Lewis comments. McCain was hurt by them and by Obama's lack of a repudiation. And on to the pledge to not opt out of public financing.

9:25pm: Ooh, negative campaigning question. McCain seems to think town halls would have cured it all. I don't think I follow. Seems pretty clear cut to me. The one behind in the polls has to go on the attack.

9:24pm: "I've opposed the Bush administration. I have the scars to prove it." And he calls out Obama on his statements about standing up to the leaders of his party.

9:20pm: Balance the budget? "Senator Obama, I am not president Bush. If you wanted to take him on you should have run four years ago." Indeed. Pursed lips from Obama. He recognizes the offensive from McCain but really doesn't seem to like it.

9:18pm: McCain is definitely on the offensive. Ooh, and there's the projector again. Jon Stewart just last night talked about Republicans not supporting McCain because he recycles (speeches). He's recycling the projector now. Oh, he's not alone.

9:17pm: Schieffer is after them on this one. Well, someone should answer these spending questions. Ah, there's the hatchet.
...from McCain? "Some people will call that a hatchet, then I'll get out the scalpel."

9:16pm: Profligate ways? Well, that went over Joe Sixpack's head.

9:15pm: Obama's up first. Pay-go elicits a smile from McCain. Are we going to work our way back to the scalpel/hatchet line? Third time's the charm they say.

9:14pm: New Question: Deficit adding. This will be good.

9:12pm: Is it me or is McCain playing with fire by continually jumping in on Obama? Or does he get the benefit of the doubt because he has to be on the offensive?

9:11pm: Redistributing the wealth. Is the class warfare argument going to work in this current environment? The McCain campaign has been going that route recently. The media won't let you hear because they're too focused on Bill Ayers. Obama is shaking his head at this. He seems moderately exasperated.

9:08pm: Is Joe the Plumber the real Joe Sixpack?

9:07pm: Schieffer: "Would you like to ask him a question?"
McCain: "Uh no."
Anecdote time.

9:06pm: Split screens are making it really difficult to follow. McCain is blinking like the next one will be his last. Very distracting. Maybe this is his way of attacking Obama.

9:04pm: I stand corrected...again. Split screens on C-SPAN. They listened to my request. This message brought to you by C-SPAN.

9:03pm: Wow! Who would have though? The economy leads us off.

9:00pm: We're about to get underway here.

7:46pm: Live from the Hofstra University annex in Athens, GA -- talk about distance learning -- it's the FHQ live blog of the third and final presidential debate of 2008. Three weeks from tonight the campaign will have been over for nearly a day -- assuming everything is on the up and up as far as recounts and the like are concerned -- and that means that after this evening we will have dipped into the teens for the numbers of days left. [I'm already nostalgic. Can we hit reset and do it all over again? I see a hand raised in the McCain section. Do I have a second? Seeing none, other than everyone here associated with the McCain campaign raising both hands, we'll move on.]

What can we expect tonight in New York? Well, dare I say McCain needs a game-changing performance? Nah. In fact, I pledge to avoid that word in all its derivatives this evening. To say that the Arizona senator has to alter the dynamic of the race at this point would be to utter one of the contenders for understatement of the year. For the second debate in a row, though, McCain is up against it because of the format. Tonight's debate is a sit down affair (It is this time, I swear.), and that makes McCain's efforts to go on the attack more difficult simply because of the conversational tone these types of debates take on.

We are a little more than an hour away, so let's sit back and prepare for our last go-round on the debate ride for 2008. I'll be back shortly. And once again, I'll be following the festivities on C-SPAN. I doubt they'll have split screen coverage during a sit down debate, but I'll start there in the hopes that they will.


Recent Posts:
Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue

The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)

How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?

Breaking: Florida to Turn Blue

I'm not one to steal my own thunder, but...

As I sit here awaiting Pollster's addition of the third party-included numbers from the latest series of CNN polls, it looks like Florida will shift into Obama territory in tonight's update of FHQ's electoral college analysis. Assuming Nevada holds pat (and today's Insider Advantage poll of the Silver state isn't hurting), Obama's tally will rise to 338 electoral votes.

The move in the Sunshine state comes on the strength of three new polls out today.
Datamar: Obama +5
Insider Advantage: Obama +4
CNN: Obama +5 (two-party breakdown)
Obama +3 (with third parties included)

UPDATE: Ever reliable FiveThirtyEight.com was able to provide the numbers with the third party candidates included. That three point margin was just (and I mean just) enough to push the Sunshine state into the blue.


I'll be back tonight with more on this and an open thread/live blog for the debate. Until then, the comment section is open. If you haven't already please visit the electoral college post from Monday and weigh in on Scott's question about the turning points in this year's campaign.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)

How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?

The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/15/08)

With 16 new polls out in 11 states, there's plenty of opportunity to shake FHQ's averages up. Sadly for the McCain campaign, a group of states once deemed battleground states by Quinnipiac, just doesn't look that way anymore. Like the university's polling outfit did recently with surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Quinnipiac split their sample into groups of before debate respondents and after debate respondents. This was set up to gauge the effects of the second presidential debate last week and the comparisons offered some mixed results. On the one hand Obama held at worst an 8 point advantage in any one of the polls in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin. That much was clear. But the attempt to determine a debate effect fell flat, only turning in a difference outside of the margin of error in the case of Wisconsin. That Badger state jumped nine points from the pre- to post-debate sample. Across the other three states, Obama's performance did not seem to really help or hurt him.

New Polls (Oct. 14)
State	Poll	Margin
Colorado	Quinnipiac (pre-debate)	+9
Colorado	Quinnipiac (post-debate)	+9
Colorado	Suffolk	+4
Delaware	Rasmussen	+17
Michigan	Quinnipiac (pre-debate)	+18
Michigan	Quinnipiac (post-debate)	+16
Minnesota	Quinnipiac (pre-debate)	+8
Minnesota	Quinnipiac (post-debate)	+11
Missouri	Public Policy Polling	+2
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	+3
Ohio	Survey USA	+5
Pennsylvania	Survey USA	+15
South Carolina	Survey USA	+14
Washington	Survey USA	+16
Wisconsin	Quinnipiac (pre-debate)	+8
Wisconsin	Quinnipiac (post-debate)	+17

If the clear message from that series of polls from Quinnipiac was the fact that Obama was comfortably ahead in those four states, that message was echoed throughout the rest of Tuesday's polling. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio -- all Bush states just four years ago -- continue to move in Obama's direction. The Illinois senator has pulled ahead in Ohio and Missouri and North Carolina are 1.5 and 2.7 points on McCain's side of the partisan line. The latter two continue to close with each new poll.*

The only red state poll of the day was in South Carolina, where McCain remains safely ahead despite what is going on in neighboring states, Georgia and North Carolina. The Palmetto state has quickly reverted to form for the general election. Early on, following a competitive Democratic primary in the state, it looked as if South Carolina may be closer than usual, if still comfortably Republican. Now, South Carolina just looks safe for the Arizona senator.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

All that blue, but no change to the map. All 50 states held firm in their current categories, leaving Obama up by the same 311-227 margin he was up a day ago in the electoral college tally. Again, the shift since the economic breakdown just a few short weeks ago has been stark. The playing field on which this race is being contested has shifted to the right on the Electoral College Spectrum below. Instead of McCain marching into the states in the second column, as it looked like was possible in the aftermath of the Republican convention, has once again shifted to the middle column and is gradually working its way to the bottom.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
NY-31 (45)	IA-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MD-10 (55)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
DE-3 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	MI-17 (255)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	NM-5 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Next on the list is Florida, which is the most vulnerable state at the moment for McCain by our measure. Of course, the Sunshine state is not nearly as susceptible to Obama's efforts there as Nevada is to McCain. The Silver state is more likely to switch over based on a minimal lead for McCain in a new poll. However, the Florida for Nevada trade is probably not what the McCain campaign has in mind currently. While Obama has some wiggle room, McCain absolutely cannot win the election without winning two out of the three of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If the Arizona senator and his team can crack that code though, they may as well go ahead and sweep all three just to be sure.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Watch List waves goodbye to Washington today. The 16 point margin in the latest Survey USA survey of the state, has pushed the Evergreen state outside of the range that puts it at risk of changing from a strong Obama state to an Obama lean state. As mentioned above, Florida, Nevada and Ohio remain the states to watch when new polling is released.

*The gap in Missouri has closed more quickly than the North Carolina margin simply because we have a lot more information from the Tar Heel state. That makes it more resilient to new polling information than a state like Missouri which has had around 15 less polls conducted in it over the course of this campaign year.


Recent Posts:
How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?

The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)

How Big a Margin is Too Big to Make Up?

In yesterday's New York Times, John Harwood laid out the history of presidential comebacks from late polling deficits, but that isn't really what I'm after here. Reagan is the only candidate who mounted such a turnaround when he unseated Jimmy Carter in 1980. The question I'm asking, though, is one I've been thinking about for the better part of two weeks because of an anonymous comment I got. [Granted, I did the leg work for this a couple of weekends ago, but I'm just now getting to it. It may not be as pertinent now with Obama seemingly comfortably ahead, but I'll press on regardless. More information is better than less in my estimation.] Here's the idea:

"Here are the margins that Bush won these states in 2004:
Ohio 2.1%
Nevada 2.6
Colorado 4.7
Florida 5.0
Virginia 8.2

It's hard for me to believe that Virginia would change 8.3% in one direction(to Obama) therefor don't be surprised if/when McCain starts polling better in Virginia."

I'll have to say, 8.3% does sound like a lot to make up in just four short years; especially in a reliably red state like Virginia. So at first glance, this sounds like an entirely reasonable hypothesis. But it is never good enough for me to simply take someone's word for it. The one question that arises from this is, 8.3% is a lot, but compared to what? What is the typical swing from one party to the other from election to election? Oh, I'm glad you asked. Let's have a look.

First off, I looked at all the swings from 1984-2004. That'll give us a total of five transitions and enough variation in the types of elections to give us a decent idea of what is business as usual in terms of these swings. There are several combinations here but two main hypotheses emerge from the electoral shifts we have witnessed over the last five cycles:

H1: Swings from one party to the other are likely to be larger in elections where the party in the White House changes than in years where the incumbent party is reelected.

H2: Competition matters. A transition from a landslide to a more competitive race is likely to affect a bigger shift than one from a competitive election to another. The biggest shift, though would combine both of these hypotheses. A switch from a landslide to another landslide where there is also a change in power translates into the biggest shifts.

Let's look at each of these five electoral transitions:
1984-1988: Big GOP landslide to Moderate GOP landslide
1988-1992: Moderate GOP landslide to Moderate Democratic landslide
1992-1996: Moderate Democratic landslide to Moderate Democratic landslide
1996-2000: Moderate Democratic landslide to Narrow GOP win
2000-2004: Narrow GOP win to Narrow GOP win

There are several types of transitions across these five cycles and that should allow us something better than a passing glance at what we're after and a decent test of our hypotheses. To start, we have a hypothetical threshold in place, 8.3%. From 1984-2004, how many states not only shifted 8.3%, but also changed hands?

Electoral Transitions (1984-2004)*
Year	Toward the Dems	Toward the GOP
1984-1988	AK AZ CA CO CT FL HI ID IL IA KS KY LA ME MA MI MO MT NE NV NH NM NY ND OK OR RI SD TX UT VT WA WV WI WY
Average Shift: 11.76% (toward the Democrats) Total Shifts >8.3%: 35 Number Changing Parties: 9
1988-1992	AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA ID IL IN KY LA ME MD MA MI MS NY NC MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY NC OH PA SC TN TX UT VT VA WA WI WY
Average Shift: 12.92% (toward the Democrats) Total Shifts >8.3%: 39 Number Changing Parties: 22
1992-1996	CT HI ME MA NH NJ NY RI	AK KS
Average Shift: 2.28% (toward the Democrats) Total Shifts >8.3%: 10 Number Changing Parties: 0
1996-2000		AK AZ AR GA ID IN IA KY LA ME MN MS MO MT NE NH ND OH OK SC SD TX UT VT WV WI WY
Average Shift: 10.22% (toward the GOP) Total Shifts >8.3%: 27 Number Changing Parties: 8
2000-2004	VT	AL HI NJ OK RI TN
Average Shift: 2.15% (toward the GOP) Total Shifts >8.3%: 7 Number Changing Parties: 0
* The states in bold and italicized are states that had shifts from one party to the other greater than 8.3% and changed parties from one cycle to the next. Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Elections

There's a lot to look at in this table, so let's try to take it in bits. Let's tackle our hypotheses first. First of all, swings are both bigger and more frequent in years where power changes hands. The only case where there was no change in the incumbent party in the White House and there were shifts was in 1988. George Bush's victory in 1988 had nowhere to go but toward the Democrats following Reagan's thorough trouncing of Mondale in 1984. While there wasn't a change in the party in the White House after the 1988 election, there was a change in who was in the White House. That may explain some of the change. During both Bill Clinton's and George W. Bush's successful reelection bids neither saw many states change more than 8.3% from their initial election, nor did either see a single state change sides.

Not surprisingly, both of those elections (1996 and 2004) saw the smallest average shifts across all 50 states -- less than 2.5% in each. In the three elections that saw a change in power, whether a partisan change or a change in the occupant of the Oval Office, each witnessed average shifts of over 10%. Now, 2008 isn't following a landslide victory, and as a result the incumbent party is much less likely to see such widespread, large shifts and still hold on to power. If, however, Obama wins the 2008 election, we would be likely to see more and bigger shifts, though perhaps not to the degree of the shift in the change election of 1992. We could see a shift similar to 2000, though. The way things look now, the trend could be the exact opposite between 2004-2008 than it was between 1996-2000. Instead of moving from a moderate landslide to a competitive election, the way things appear now, three weeks out, a move from a competitive election to a moderate landslide isn't that far-fetched.

In a change election -- one where there is a change in power -- a shift of 8.3% or more isn't that uncommon from one election to the next.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)

A Follow-Up on ACORN

The Electoral College Map (10/14/08)

Monday brought a welcomed infusion of survey data from mostly battleground states. In all, 14 new polls from 12 states made even clearer our picture of the race for the White House. And as the table below can attest, it is an almost entirely blue picture. Of all the toss up states, Missouri and Indiana had been the most solidly McCain in the wake of the most recent Obama surge in state level polling. Indiana remains as solidly McCain as a toss up can be (In fact, if the line separating the toss up and lean categories were dropped to a 3 point margin, as it will be later in the week, Indiana would turn darker red by the slimmest of margins.), but Missouri has gone in the other direction since the middle part of last week. Of the four polls released from the Show-Me state in that time, three have show Obama ahead by anywhere from 1 to 8 points. The 8 point edge in the Survey USA poll out yesterday seems like an outlier given the totality of polling information from the state as well as in the context of these most recent polls. Outlier, though it may be, this poll is indicative of a larger trend toward Obama in Missouri. The mid- to lower single digit leads for McCain in the aftermath of the GOP convention have dissipated and been replaced with more Obama-friendly numbers since the Lehman collapse kicked off the economic crisis.

New Polls (Oct. 13)
State	Poll	Margin
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+5
Georgia	Survey USA	+8
Missouri	Rasmussen/FOX	+3
Missouri	Survey USA	+8
New Jersey	Survey USA	+15
New York	Survey USA	+33
North Carolina	Rasmussen/FOX	0
North Dakota	Forum	+2
Ohio	Marist	+4
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+2
Oklahoma	TvPoll	+31.1
Oregon	Survey USA	+17
Pennsylvania	Marist	+12
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	+3

Other than Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina are noteworthy. On a gut level, both "feel" closer than they did just a week ago. North Carolina did seem to peak last week and has since turned in a run of margins well within the margin of error. However, any North Carolina number less than two for McCain or anything leaning in Obama's direction is narrowing the gap in the Tar Heel state. So, while things look a little closer in North Carolina, given the last few polls, the truth is that it is still closing. The same sort of thing is playing out in Ohio. The Buckeye state crested in the the Obama economic surge period, but has settled into an Obama +2-5 point range that is occasionally peppered with a positive McCain poll.

Changes (Oct. 13)
State	Before	After
New Jersey	Obama lean	Strong Obama
North Dakota	Strong McCain	McCain lean
Oregon	Obama lean	Strong Obama

And what about that North Dakota poll? [Yeah, why did I wait so long to talk about that one?] The North Dakota poll from Forum led us into the week with a surprisingly positive Obama result. Unlike West Virginia last week, though, North Dakota is a bit more insulated by more polling data. In other words, it wasn't as vulnerable to a (potential) outlier as the Mountain state was. Yet, North Dakota did move into the McCain lean category, joining Montana as the only other lean state for the Arizona senator. North Dakota, then, is more competitive as a result -- at least according to our average -- but the number of days left are waning and the Peace Garden state is likely too far out of the Illinois senator's reach. If this poll is, in fact, indicative of what is happening in North Dakota, then Obama's North Dakota pull out, has not had the same effect on his numbers there, as McCain's in Michigan after the Arizona senator move resources out of the Wolverine state. Granted, one of those got a touch more press than the other.

Other than North Dakota, New Jersey and Oregon joined Iowa in shifting into the strong Obama category. What we are seeing is the continued movement across the map toward Obama. The darkest red states are impervious for the most part and we see that in the fact that there are so few lean states on the McCain side of the partisan line (see Electoral College Spectrum below). There continue to be two types of McCain states: solid McCain and toss up. In other words, there's a group of states that are safe for McCain, but outside of those states, the Arizona senator's potentially vulnerable. Those McCain toss ups have for the most part shift toward Obama, Obama toss ups have shifted toward Obama leans and Obama leans have shifted toward strong Obama states. But there remain three distinct tiers of states on the Obama side of the partisan line. If the line between strong states and lean states were dropped today to, say, 7 points, Minnesota would be the only state to move (into the strong Obama category). The polling movement during debate season, then, has gone as expected as the campaign draws ever closer to its conclusion. What I mean is that the categories of states are largely solidified now and there are natural breaks between them.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

Despite the moves, nothing has really been altered in terms of the distribution of electoral votes between the two candidates. Obama moves 22 electoral votes onto safer ground, but still holds 264 electoral votes between his lean and strong states. McCain on the other hand, maintains comfortable leads in states with 158 electoral votes. That would leave McCain in a position of having to sweep all the toss up states to clear the 270 electoral vote hurdle.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (158)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	OR-7 (164)	CO-9*** (273/274)	MT-3 (155)	KY-8 (58)
RI-4 (14)	WA-11 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
NY-31 (45)	IA-7 (182)	OH-20 (306/252)	MS-6 (137)	TN-11 (44)
MD-10 (55)	NJ-15 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	AR-6 (131)	NE-5 (33)
DE-3 (58)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	AK-3 (125)	AL-9 (28)
IL-21 (79)	WI-10 (217)	WV-5 (343/200)	TX-34 (122)	WY-3 (19)
CT-7 (86)	PA-21 (238)	MO-11 (354/195)	SC-8 (88)	ID-4 (16)
MA-12 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (369/184)	AZ-10 (80)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	IN-11 (380/169)	SD-3 (70)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including New Hampshire (all Obama's toss up states), he would have 278 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

As Scott pointed out in the comments to yesterday's post, that seems unlikely. But to win without sweeping the toss ups, McCain would have to pick up Pennsylvania. The Arizona senator could cede Colorado and Virginia to Obama, swing Ohio and Pennsylvania and only get to 268, which is obviously short of the goal. But pulling Nevada in as well, would get McCain over the top. Is Pennsylvania an attainable target though? That's the question. Recent polling does not give him much of a shot. The type of North Carolina and Ohio movement discussed above is not present in Pennsylvania. Whereas the the Tar Heel and Buckeye states peaked and settled into a new equilibrium below that peak point, Pennsylvania has bounced and plateaued in the lower double digits for Obama.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Indiana	from Toss Up McCain	to McCain lean
Iowa	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
New Hampshire	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
New Jersey	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Ohio	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Oregon	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
Washington	from Strong Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

The Keystone state isn't even on the Watch List. In fact, Pennsylvania is moving deeper into the Obama lean category with each new poll that is released. But the ten states above are on the list of states most likely to move in the event that new polling is released. And there is a lot of blue there. The lack of red of any shade again underlines that idea that the McCain side of things has solidified. The only thing left to settle is if those pink toss ups will shift toward Obama. Florida is the most likely at this point. To put the Florida situation in the terminology of a baseball pennant chase, the Sunshine state now has a magic number of 7. If a new poll were to give Obama a 7 point advantage, Florida would turn blue. That's down from 10 points before the Rasmussen poll was added in last night.

Just to be fair here, Nevada and Ohio are also close to changing sides. What are their respective magic numbers. McCain would need just a two point poll margin to shift Nevada to his side of the partisan line. Ohio, though, is a different story. We have much more data in the case of the Buckeye state, and thus a pretty good idea of how it is leaning. In other words, it, in all likelihood, takes more than just one poll to shift Ohio. If one poll were to do it, though, it would have to give McCain a 9 point edge. Given our discussion above -- about how Ohio had basically averaged one positive poll in the lower single digits for McCain recently -- that is very unlikely.

The story today is similar to what it was yesterday (and the day before and so on): McCain has to find a way to shift the race in his direction. The problem is that he is running out of time.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/13/08)

A Follow-Up on ACORN

The Electoral College Map (10/12/08)