The Electoral College Map (10/29/08)

Tuesday brought much more red to the polling on the day, but you'd be hard-pressed to call any of it "good" red. The gap continues to close in Arizona, though the state is still regarded as a strong state for John McCain. Still, as I mentioned on Monday, the symbolism of having your home grow increasingly competitive as the race draws to a close is not a welcome sign for any candidate, much less a candidate trailing in the polls both nationally and in the most competitive states. Elsewhere, a day after a Zogby poll gave the McCain campaign a somewhat comfortable advantage in Indiana, the Hoosier state turns in two polls well within the margin of error with one favoring each candidate. Indiana is still off the Watch List for a potential switch to the blue side of the partisan line, but is perilously close for a state that has been reliably Republican since LBJ's landslide in 1964. Also, there was a bit of a bounce back in the Insider Advantage polling in Georgia. And even though the new poll is red -- an improvement over the one point advantage the firm showed Obama had late last week -- that one point margin is far below what would have been expected in the Peach state as recently as two weeks ago.

New Polls (Oct. 28)
State	Poll	Margin
Arizona	ASU/Cronkite	+2
Arkansas	Rasmussen	+10
Colorado	Insider Advantage	+8
Florida	LA Times/Bloomberg	+7
Georgia	Insider Advantage	+1
Indiana	Howey-Gauge	+2
Indiana	Research 2000	+1
Louisiana	SE LA Univ.	+12.3
Maine	Market Decisions	+19.1
Mississippi	Rasmussen	+8
Mississippi	Univ. of South Alabama	+13
Montana	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+4
Nevada	Suffolk	+10
Nevada	Rasmussen	+4
New Hampshire	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+11
New Jersey	Strategic Vision	+15
North Carolina	Mason-Dixon/NBC	0
Ohio	Survey USA	+4
Ohio	LA Times/Bloomberg	+9
Pennsylvania	Insider Advantage	+9
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen	+7
Virginia	Roanoke College	+9
Washington	Survey USA	+17
Washington	Strategic Vision	+12
Wisconsin	Strategic Vision	+9

And while there is more red among the 25 new polls (in 19 states) out Tuesday, there is certainly more than enough blue to counterbalance it. While the averages are creeping lower on the McCain side of the partisan line, on the Obama side, they are increasing. Well, there are some caveats, of course, but states like Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Washington continue to move deeper into the Obama column. Meanwhile Pennsylvania and Wisconsin jumped toward Obama in the wake of the economic crisis but have since receded some, though perhaps not as much as the McCain campaign would prefer. [Both these states came up in the comments section discussion yesterday and I'll have something to add to that a little later today.]

The case is a bit different in Nevada and Ohio, where the results are a bit more muddled. In other words, we're getting conflicting views of just how much Obama is ahead in the Silver and Buckeye states. The Illnois senator continues to hold leads in both but the depth of that lead is something of a question mark. Of the two polls out in each state on Tuesday, one had Obama ahead by 4 and the other had the Illinois senator up by 9 or 10 points. The underlying message to take home, though, is that Obama is ahead in each throughout most of the recent polling. And both states have slipped off the Watch List into a firm position in the Obama toss up category. All that means is that neither state is within a fraction of a point of returning to the McCain side of the partisan line. And both are creeping in the opposite direction at the moment.

Changes (Oct. 28)
State	Before	After
Virginia	Toss Up Obama	Obama lean

Meanwhile, there is Virginia. The Old Dominion looks a lot more like Colorado, Maine and Washington than it does Ohio or Pennsylvania. Unlike Maine or Washington, though, Virginia started out in McCain territory and has since jumped to the Obama side of the partisan line and has sustained those numbers (...as opposed to either a bounce and recession scenario or a mixed results one). Despite that starting point -- a solid Bush state four years ago -- Virginia has now shifted enough to move into the Obama lean category. In the process that vaults Obama into an even more comfortable position ahead of the election next Tuesday. Between the strong and lean categories in the blue, Obama now has 286 electoral votes. Toss up states, then are irrelevant at this point if the goal is surpassing 270 electoral votes. If the discussion shifts to building a coalition of states to claim a mandate, then those toss up states become more consequential.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. McCain is down, but he isn't totally out. Though, there are a decreasing number of scenarios where McCain emerges victorious on November 4. For one, as FHQ showed last week, it would take an above average Bradley effect for McCain to pull out a win. Later today, we'll have a little something up about the effect an October (or at this point pretty much, a November) surprise would potentially have on the election. As things stand now, though, McCain will not only have to sweep the remaining toss up states, but he'll have to stretch into the Obama leans or even a couple of strong Obama states -- like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin -- with favorable conditions (demographics, lack of early voting, etc.). Pulling in one or both of those would negated the need for McCain to "have" to win Colorado, Virginia or New Hampshire. Regardless, the Arizona senator will have to sweep the remaining toss up states.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	MT-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
IL-21 (62)	NJ-15 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	AZ-10 (137)	TN-11 (44)
RI-4 (66)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (76)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MA-12 (88)	PA-21 (228)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (118)	WY-3 (19)
CA-55 (143)	WI-10 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AR-6 (84)	ID-4 (16)
DE-3 (146)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	AK-3 (78)	OK-7 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (260)	ND-3 (163)	SC-8 (75)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Finally, the Watch List loses Montana today on the strength of the Mason-Dixon poll in the Treasure state showing McCain up 4 points. Despite that, the RNC thought the race there to be close enough to drop some cash in the state to protect McCain's position there. Other than Montana, though, there wasn't any movement on the Watch List. Colorado is within a couple hundredths of a point of shifting off the list into a more comfortable position in the Obama lean category and the new poll out this morning from the AP will likely push the Centennial state across that threshold. Colorado, then, is one to watch along with the old stand-bys, Florida and Missouri. Though, it should be said that Florida is tracking toward leaving the list in the way that Nevada and Ohio have recently. Missouri, on the other hand, continues to draw closer.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

NOTE: Please make a note of the Rasmussen North Carolina poll from a day ago. I mistakenly colored it an Obama one point advantage. It was a McCain lead of one point and the table now reflects that reality. The Tar Heel state is still just outside of being added to the Watch List as a potential switch into the Obama toss up category.


Recent Posts:
The Debate Last Night

The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

Debate Tonight

The Debate Last Night

The debate that I moderated last night between the UGA College Republicans and Young Democrats was an interesting affair. We had the hall for 90 minutes and broke things down in to segments of about 8 minutes each (Well, they were supposed to have been 8 minutes each.). Both sides got two minutes to answer the question posed and that was followed up by about 2-4 minutes of cross talk. As I said yesterday, the intent was to split the event into equal parts foreign policy and domestic affairs. The guy who was moderating, though, was a bit liberal with the time allowed and let it get away from them more often than not. As a result most of the evening was spent discussing issues in the domestic sphere (...much to the chagrin of one of the College Republican panelists who also happened to be an international affairs major. All the moderator could say was, "What do you expect from an Americanist?").

I'll reproduce the question list below, but will tell you that we were able to cover immigration, candidate experience, redistribution of wealth, energy, education, the economy, Iran and checks and balances. I had planned to close by asking who each side thought would win nationally and in Georgia and why/how, but opted to close with the checks and balances question instead. The moderator in me overruled the political strategist on that final question as time waned. Plus, I was likely to have gotten partisan rather than thoughtful responses -- not that the two can't overlap -- which would have lacked any real entertainment value.

It was funny. As the crowd was filing in, I was sitting in the back of the hall going over my notes and got to hear some good lines. Two girls (I hate saying that, but saying college-aged women sounds kind of silly, though, perhaps more accurate.) were talking about how it was like a wedding, having to choose which side to sit on. I had already been thinking about this and, to me, there were more people opting for the left than the right. That seemed to be where the crowd was throughout the evening. Democratic one liners got a better response and edgy Republican comments were vocally derided. [I seriously considered jokingly leading off by revealing, in true moderator fashion, that the audience had been warned about vocal reactions, but thought better of it. There are only so many jokes you can fit in and I already had a Joe the Plumber reference.]

As to the debate itself, I'm sure everyone is interested in my opinion of who won. When my sister asked me this morning, I said me (...because I had not succumbed to stage fright beforehand. How like a politician: setting the bar low before an event.). In all seriousness, though, I think it is probably beyond my pay grade -- to borrow a phrase -- to call out students and critique them on their performances (I do enough of that already.). I thought both sides did well, but like any of the four debates we just witnessed, there was a fair amount of question dodging and reliance on stump speech material. But hey, if the people at the top do it, I can't begrudge any of the panelists for doing the same. [Heck, it wasn't like I was Jim Lehrer up there.] More than anything the night was about information and I'd like to think that the discussion that took place on stage helped to get some additional information out there to students at UGA.

But the evening was enjoyable and I appreciated the University Union contacting me and allowing me to participate.

Below are the questions I used (or would have used had we had more time or a more disciplined moderator). I was able to sneak Rob's socialism/liberalism and conservatism/libertarianism question into the discussion of redistribution. That one got set up better than I had hoped when one of the Republican panelists brought up not only socialism but went beyond that to invoke communism, even quoting Karl Marx. That led to a good exchange.

The only reason that I didn't get to use Daniel's was because it came in after I had already completed the set of questions for the night. That one is on me. I probably should have put a deadline in with the original call for questions.
--------------------------------------------
Debate Questions
I Immigration
One issue that has been lost in the campaign this year is the issue of immigration. That is due in large part to the relative proximity of the two candidates on how to deal with it and McCain's divergence from some within the Republican Party. On the one side is the wall along the United States' southern border with Mexico and on the other is talk of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants. Where do John McCain and Barack Obama fit in on that spectrum and how will each deal with the issue over the course of the next four years?

II Experience
From some of the student questions I received, I saw that experience is still an issue that is on people's minds. Early on, this looked like a race that would potentially be shaped based on the age vs. experience question. Was McCain too old and did Obama lack the experience necessary to deal with the serious problems facing the nation. The Sarah Palin selection added a twist to this discussion, but is this still an issue and how will it affect each after January 20th?

III Redistribution/Socialism
This one comes to us from our good friend Joe the Plumber. Obviously, the McCain campaign has tried to make an issue – whether successful or not – of Obama's response about the idea of redistribution of wealth. At the heart of this is the divide between the two parties on how much and in what ways the federal government should intervene on economic issues. But what does this mean, a redistribution of wealth? What wealth and where will it be redistributed?

Follow-up:
Since we're talking government intervention, I'd like to take a step back and talk a little about basic questions of ideology. I often run my 1101 students through the paces on ideology, but I think it would be instructive to give that discussion a potential real world application. To my friends on the right, what is the difference between a conservative and a libertarian? And to the folks on the left, what is the difference between a liberal and a socialist?

IV Energy
Whether its drill baby drill or adding new green collar jobs to our economy, alternative forms of energy are high on the lists of priorities of both John McCain and Barack Obama. What is the most cost-effective combination of these various ideas to deal with the United States' current energy problems.

V Education
I wanted to talk about something related to education. We are at an institution of higher learning after all. And I'd like to confine our discussion to that area. At least some of the folks in this room are facing student loan repayments when they are done at UGA and among the others there are HOPE scholarship recipients whose scholarships – and this may be something faced by future students more than those here in the hall tonight – may be threatened because of the rising cost of higher education. What are each of the major candidate's doing to address the issue of college affordability?

VI Economy
This question was posed to the candidates in all four debates this year and I don't know that the American people got a solid answer to it at any point during any of those affairs. However, I think that we may be able to come up with some ideas tonight. There's always a lot of promises in political campaigns, but in light of the current economic situation, what are some of the things that are most likely going to be on the cutting room floor once one of these two gentlemen assumes the office of the presidency?

VII Iran
Iran. Diplomacy or military intervention? There's been a lot of talk about conditions and pre-conditions for sitting down with certain world leaders, but obviously, the Islamic Republic's development of nuclear technology is a huge consideration in dealing with Iran. But what is the point of no return? At what point in that nation's nuclear development does it become necessary for military intervention to be seriously considered?

VIII Israel
I'm glad Israel came up in that last exchange/I'm surprised Israel didn't come up in that exchange because that is where I'd like to turn now. The Iran question is very much intertwined with the Israel question simply because of their ties to the Palestinians opposite the Israelis on the dispute over the territory in the Holy Land. What should the US role be in the Israeli/Palestinian dispute and how should that approach be tempered by the question of Iran's interest in the issue as well?

IX Trade
Charges of protectionism and unfair trade have been bandied about throughout this campaign – even stretching back to the primary contests in the winter and spring. What can be done to alter the trade regimes currently in place so that they successfully tread the line between the two extremes represented by the charges levied in this contest – protectionism and unfair trade?

X Humanitarian Intervention
The US military is stretched pretty much to its limit currently. Given that reality and its intersection with the economic downturn has the United States' ability to deal with current humanitarian crises and those that may arise in the future been compromised? Like a lot of things, this is a question of degrees. Under what circumstances is it necessary for the US to intervene to create some solution to humanitarian issues?

XI Checks and Balances
I wanted to end on a bit of a broad note. No matter who wins next week, the next president will have to deal with what is projected to be an overwhelming Democratic majority in both houses of Congress. 250 seats in the House and possibly a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate. If McCain wins how will he be able to govern effectively without a wholesale shift toward the left? And if Obama wins, what will he have to do to keep the various factions of the Democratic majority on the same page when dealing with the issues that face the nation?

XII Closing Question
Who is going to win both nationally and here in Georgia and why?


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

Debate Tonight

The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/28/08)

NOTE: Folks, I apologize for the delay getting today's map up. Last night's debate (further details forthcoming) on campus here at UGA threw me off my typical routine. I'll make it up to you with some interesting stuff throughout the afternoon. Anyway...

Well, we had plenty of polling to sift through on Monday. A total of 33 polls in 17 states -- including multiple surveys from states like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- provided enough new data to potentially shake up the graduated weighted averages here at FHQ. The picture created by the full day's set of polls, though, was one that continued the trend we have seen across most of the recent polling: Obama is ahead and seemingly comfortably so in enough states to be able win a week from today. Of course, as we've seen here for the last several weeks, Obama has been over the 270 electoral vote mark with or without any of the toss up states. Nothing on Monday changed that. However, the new polling did reposition several states on the Electoral College Spectrum below in some noteworthy ways.

New Polls (Oct. 27)
State	Poll	Margin
Arizona	Rasmussen	+8
Arizona	N. Arizona Univ.	+5
California	Rasmussen	+27
Colorado	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Florida	Suffolk	+5
Florida	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Florida	Zogby	+0.3
Florida	Datamar	+5
Indiana	Zogby	+6.2
Iowa	Marist	+10
Missouri	Rasmussen/FOX	+1
Missouri	Zogby	+2.5
Missouri	Survey USA	0
Nevada	Zogby	+4.2
New Hampshire	Marist	+5
New Hampshire	UNH	+16
New York	Siena	+31
North Carolina	Rasmussen/FOX	+1
North Carolina	Zogby	+3.3
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	+1
Ohio	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Ohio	Zogby	+4.6
Oklahoma	TvPoll	+26.8
Oregon	Survey USA	+19
Pennsylvania	Temple University	+9
Vermont	Research 2000	+21
Virginia	Washington Post	+8
Virginia	Zogby	+7.2
Virginia	Survey USA	+9
Virginia	VCU	+11
Virginia	Rasmussen/FOX	+4
Washington	University of Washington	+21
West Virginia	Zogby	+9.9

The first thing about this series of polling is how overwhelmingly blue it is. Oklahoma, we can understand. And Indiana and West Virginia certainly look better for McCain in light of the Zogby polls in each. Indiana especially, is heading in the right direction after those two blue polls in the Hoosier state last week. But McCain's home state of Arizona looks bleak. Not Gore/Tennessee in 2000 bleak, but bleak nonetheless. Both states were/are trending away from their favorite sons, but Tennessee was further away from Gore in 2000 than Arizona is from McCain in 2008. Still, while single digits aren't ideal, the numbers Monday (+8 and +5 for McCain) were better than they were on Sunday (+2 and +4 for McCain). The Grand Canyon state's average is now under 10 points, though. Missouri, too, with each passing day, continues to inch closer and closer to the partisan line and a switch over into the blue. Regardless of our measure here, the Show-Me state is looking like as close to a dead heat as we may have next week. The last week of polling in Missouri has been dominated by one point margins in both directions.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

I'll get back to Missouri towards the end today, but let's look at the effect all those blue polls in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia had. Obviously, all are moving toward Obama at this point, but each had different starting points. Virginia's shift down the stretch has been notable. While it has been a toss up throughout, the Old Dominion was on the other side of both Ohio and Nevada on the McCain side of the partisan line not that long ago (during the last week of September). Virginia has switched from being a state that wasn't even on the Watch List -- state closest to changing categories -- as a possible switch into the Obama column to a state that is within a couple hundredths of a point of moving into the Obama lean category. If that Rasmussen/FOX poll (the poll most recently in the field in the state) of the state had shown a 5 point margin instead of a 4 point margin, Virginia would be a darker shade of blue today.

Florida's starting point was even further into McCain territory than Virginia, but the Sunshine state's shift has been nearly as large; switching from a state that treaded the line between the toss up and lean categories on the red side of the ledger to now being within half a point of moving off the Watch List into the "safer" area of the toss up category. Of course, that +/-3 point area is called toss up for a reason, but Florida's position switch has been a steadily consistent work-in-progress. Now, whether the Sunshine state ends up in the blue on the evening of November 4 is far from a certain outcome, but the fact that that is even possible now, given the state's position in the race over the summer is saying something. It was moderately controversial to question whether the state was a toss up then.

North Carolina and Ohio, too, have moved closer to or into Obama territory since the economic downturn during the latter half of September. The recent polling backs this up to some extent. In Ohio, the margin has spread out a little, while in North Carolina, there was a jump toward Obama that has since contracted some and settled into an area that puts the Tar Heels state on a trajectory similar to that of Missouri's -- trending toward a dead heat at the right time for Obama and the wrong time for McCain.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	WA-11 (168)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
NY-31 (41)	OR-7 (175)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
IL-21 (62)	NJ-15 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	AZ-10 (137)	TN-11 (44)
RI-4 (66)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (76)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MA-12 (88)	PA-21 (228)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (118)	WY-3 (19)
CA-55 (143)	WI-10 (238)	NC-15 (364/189)	AK-3 (84)	ID-4 (16)
DE-3 (146)	NM-5 (243)	IN-11 (375/174)	AR-6 (81)	OK-7 (12)
CT-7 (153)	MI-17 (260)	MT-3 (163)	SC-8 (75)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

That the battle is being waged over this last week of the campaign in four Bush states says an awful lot about the state of the race. Sure, the McCain campaign was in Iowa over the weekend, but the numbers there aren't that promising. But the Hawkeye state was red four years ago too. The last hope state for McCain is Pennsylvania and that is really the only Kerry state being contested at this point (other than New Hampshire). And we see this on the map above, a map that continues to show Senator Obama ahead 338-200 with Missouri and North Carolina drawing closer as the race itself draws to a close.

But the big movers of the day were among the safe states. New York, California, Oregon and Washington all jumped up the rankings on the Electoral College Spectrum. Meanwhile, Arizona moved as well, just in a direction opposite of what the McCain campaign might like. Arizona has now joined Georgia to form a 'tweener group here at FHQ. Both are trending toward increased competitiveness, but are stuck on the low end of the strong McCain category. However, there is some distance between Arizona and Mississippi and between Georgia and West Virginia. Regardless, though each is moving toward Obama, neither is likely to jump over to Obama in the next week. That imaginary line between Arizona and Mississippi South Dakota is one to make note of, though. Should the results of the election move into the landslide arena, that is likely the point to which Obama can stretch his coalition of states. The closer you get to that partisan line, however, the more likely it is that the Arizona senator could peel off any of those McCain states.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

On the Watch List, Florida and Missouri are still the states to watch most closely when new polling is released. Missouri's magic number is now down to 9 (from 11), meaning that it would take a poll with a margin of 9 points in favor of Obama to shift the state into the blue. Alternately, Florida would have to give McCain a 13 point margin in the next poll to bring the Sunshine state back into the red in FHQ's averages. Comparatively, Missouri's magic number is shrinking while Florida's is growing. Neither can be seen as welcome news for the McCain campaign.


Recent Posts:
Debate Tonight

The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)

Debate Tonight

No, not that kind of debate. Obama's Wednesday night primetime affair is the only [scheduled] high-profile campaign event this week.

However, tonight FHQ is moderating a debate between the College Republicans and Young Democrats on campus here at UGA. [It isn't on the level of the Colbert Report, et al. but it is monumental enough that I taken to using the third person when describing my participation in it.] Anyway, I don't want to totally outsource the resposibility*, but I'd like to open it up here and see what kind of questions our readers and frequent contributors would like to see asked in such a context. If you're like me you submitted at least one hundred questions on MySpace in the hopes that one would be chosen for the town hall debate in Nashville earlier this month. But also like me, you were likely disappointed when one wasn't chosen. Well, now you have the opportunity to submit questions to a panel of partisans from each side of the aisle who aren't even "officially" representing either campaign. [Oh, I'm supposed to be convincing you to actually post questions.]

Here are the rules for submission:

1) There are two broad topic areas, foreign and domestic.
2) We are steering clear of social issues in an effort to tamp down the number of fist fights outside the hall this evening.

Other than that, everything else is fair game. But I will add one additional rule since our contributors tend to lean toward the left (though our readers may come from a broader range on the ideological spectrum):

3) No gotcha questions.

Though there won't be a live blog of the festivities, I'll have a wrap up post up in the morning (so you can see if your question was chosen.).

*I should note that there are student-submitted questions as well.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)

Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy

The Electoral College Map (10/27/08)

A candidate's home state is supposed to be safe, right? Arkansas turned red once Bill Clinton was out of the picture. Texas has always had someone on one of the tickets -- save 1996 -- but usually on the Republican ticket. The Bushes account for most of those and they swung Texas -- not that it really needed any swinging. Oh, and Tennessee was a vital part of Al Gore's coalition of states that he won in 2000. No, wait, I just got a call from the Gore folks. They actually lost Tennessee, but wanted me to remind everyone reading that they did win the popular vote nationally in that election.

Well, what does this have to do with anything anyway? Alaska, Arizona, Delaware and Illinois are all safe states; the former two for the Republicans and the latter two for the Democrats. Yeah, Alaska looked close for a while before the Palin selection and Arizona turned in a single digit margin or two along the way. Likewise, Illinois and Delaware went without polling for the longest time and were never really at risk for the Democrats in a favorable political climate.

New Polls (Oct. 26)
State	Poll	Margin
Arizona	Marketing Intelligence	+2
Arizona	Project New West	+4
Georgia	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+6
Iowa	Mason-Dixon-NBC	+11
Iowa	Research 2000	+15
Missouri	Mason-Dixon/NBC	+1
New Hampshire	Univ. of New Hampshire	+15
Ohio	Univ. of Akron	+3.7
Virginia	Public Policy Polling	+9
West Virginia	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+6
Wisconsin	Rasmussen	+7

But that changed today. Two new polls out of Arizona showed the race in the Grand Canyon state still favoring McCain, but within the margin of error. And the indications out of Arizona State University's polling outfit, from which a new poll is due out tomorrow, are that last month's eight point margin will have shrunk in this month's survey. So much for home states being safe. Arizona is still very much within the strong McCain category, but it has suddenly shot up the rankings to a spot right behind Georgia. In other words, it is just one state and about three and a quarter points from being a lean state for the Arizona senator. Even though, the state more than likely safe, this is certainly a trend chock full of symbolism. And not the good kind of symbolism either. This is more ominous for the GOP's 2008 standard bearer.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

The Grand Canyon state wasn't the only state to be heard from today though. There was another tight poll in Georgia, a fairly large lead for Obama in New Hampshire and another mid-single digit margin out of West Virginia. But I'll focus on the three toss up states that had new polls out today. In Virginia, there was yet another Obama lead well outside of the margin of error. The Old Dominion is now within half a point of moving into the Obama lean category and if polling like this continues that average will have passed three points sooner rather than later.

The new University of Akron poll in Ohio had Obama up nearly four points, but was in the field in two parts (one, a continued panel survey from earlier in the year and another, just simply a new survey) from the last week of September up through mid-October. So, that one may not join the lower of the two groups of polling results that emerged from the Buckeye state this past week.

Finally, Missouri just looks close. The margin in the Show-Me state is and will likely be within the margin of error from now until election day. Regardless of whether it is a one point lead for McCain or Obama, Missouri is close, but still on the McCain side of the partisan line. But it is on the Watch List to potentially turn blue should polling in the state break toward the Illinois senator in any meaningful over the last nine days of the race.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	NJ-15 (172)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
IL-21 (31)	OR-7 (179)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
NY-31 (62)	WA-11 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	AZ-10 (137)	TN-11 (44)
RI-4 (66)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	SD-3 (127)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (76)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	MS-6 (124)	AL-9 (28)
MA-12 (88)	PA-21 (228)	MO-11 (349/200)	TX-34 (118)	WY-3 (19)
DE-3 (91)	WI-10 (238)	IN-11 (360/189)	AK-3 (84)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	AR-6 (81)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	MT-3 (163)	SC-8 (75)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Still, none of these polls did anything to in anyway change the electoral vote distribution on the map above. Obama continues to hold 338-200 advantage over McCain. And as we enter the final full work week before the election -- a week that will see Obama on TV Wednesday night before the nation -- the "I" word cannot be that far from being broken out. I don't like talking about inevitability, but to not talk about it in the context of a couple (and maybe one more) of polls showing a much closer race in Arizona, is a mistake. I like competition as much as the next guy -- and wouldn't mind seeing the 2008 election throw us all another curveball -- but we may be better served heading into this week talking about the effects these poll numbers may have on turnout and the final margin on November 4.

I've got one scenario analysis in the works from Scott that I'll roll out as the week moves on. It doesn't directly get at the sorts of things I'm angling at, but it does give us some further insight into why we are seeing what we are seeing from the McCain campaign from a strategic standpoint currently.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

It seems silly to keep harping on it, but Missouri and Florida are still the states to watch when new polling is out. They are the states who's electoral votes would most likely switch sides of the partisan line. You can add in Virginia to the mix as well, but the Old Dominion is threatening to move into the Obama lean category. One thing is for sure, we'll likely have a lot to sift through tomorrow, including another round of battleground polling from Rasmussen in the late afternoon and of course, that Arizona State/Cronkite poll from the Grand Canyon state.

Nine days left.


Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)

Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy

The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/26/08)

Like Friday, Saturday brought a surprising amount of polling and that was after a slow start to the day. Well, it must be crunch time in the race for the White House. It is and we have a pretty clear picture of where the battle will be over the next ten days of this campaign. [Wow! We'll be in the single digits after tomorrow.] Only a handful of those states were represented in the 11 news polls out of 11 states. Missouri once again showed a one point lead for Barack Obama. The Show-Me state has drawn much closer over the last week and while it is on the verge of turning blue (It is on the Watch List below, for example.), it still leans slightly toward Arizona senator, John McCain.

New Polls (Oct. 25)
State	Poll	Margin
Arkansas	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+11
Colorado	Rocky Mtn. News	+12
Illinois	Research 2000	+24
Minnesota	St. Cloud St.	+5
Missouri	Research 2000	+1
New Jersey	Marist	+17
New York	Marist	+36
Ohio	Univ. of Cincinnati	+3
Pennsylvania	Muhlenberg College	+12
South Dakota	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+9
Tennessee	Research 2000/Daily Kos	+16

Colorado and Ohio were also among the targeted few states that had polls released on Saturday. [I almost said "among the toss up states," but Colorado isn't a toss up state anymore. It is receiving a fair amount of attention from the McCain campaign, though.] The Centennial state continues to move away from the Arizona senator and that Rocky Mountain News survey's 12 point margin matched the largest margin in a poll of the state all year. Of course, that one was a McCain lead way back in April, but the new one has swung 24 points toward Obama. To put things in perspective a bit, Rocky Mountain News' last poll right before the Democratic convention had McCain up by three points. That's pretty indicative of how things have gone for John McCain since the economic crisis began.

In Ohio the situation is similar. No, the margin in the University of Cincinnati's poll wasn't the biggest we have seen in Ohio during this cycle, but that three point advantage is the continuation of a trend in that series of polls toward Obama. The initial poll from the firm gave McCain a four point lead in the week after the Republican convention in St. Paul and then grew to 6 points a week later. The first October poll showed that McCain was holding onto a decreasing lead (two points), one that has now turned into a three point Obama lead. So, while this poll is far below what we have seen from some other polls from the Buckeye state this week, it is representative of a nearly ten point shift toward Obama in the time since the Lehman collapse.

[Click Map to Enlarge]

And that's basically the story of the last month of this race in the toss up states -- current and former. Everything else on Saturday was pretty much par for the course. The Marist poll out of New York was a bigger margin than might otherwise have been expected, but the Empire state isn't going anywhere anyway. The rest of the notable data from the day was from the northern plains/prairie. South Dakota turned in yet another single digit McCain lead; the second time this week. But the Mount Rushmore state is probably safely red for John McCain except for the fact that the state will likely be much closer for McCain than it was four years ago for George W. Bush. To the east, in Minnesota, St. Cloud State University weighed in with its first poll of the cycle. And at five points in favor of Obama, the margin was much lower than what we have seen out of the North Star state over the last week or so. A big reason for that may have to do with the large number of undecided voters in the sample (12%). That's a wee bit high considering there are but 10 days left in the race.

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (157)	NH-4 (264/278)	ND-3 (160)	LA-9 (67)
VT-3 (10)	NJ-15 (172)	CO-9*** (273/274)	WV-5 (157)	KY-8 (58)
IL-21 (31)	OR-7 (179)	VA-13 (286/265)	GA-15 (152)	KS-6 (50)
NY-31 (62)	WA-11 (190)	OH-20 (306/252)	SD-3 (137)	TN-11 (44)
RI-4 (66)	IA-7 (197)	NV-5 (311/232)	MS-6 (134)	NE-5 (33)
MD-10 (76)	MN-10 (207)	FL-27 (338/227)	TX-34 (128)	AL-9 (28)
MA-12 (88)	WI-10 (217)	MO-11 (349/200)	AK-3 (94)	WY-3 (19)
DE-3 (91)	PA-21 (238)	IN-11 (360/189)	AR-6 (91)	ID-4 (16)
CT-7 (98)	NM-5 (243)	NC-15 (375/178)	SC-8 (85)	OK-7 (12)
CA-55 (153)	MI-17 (260)	MT-3 (163)	AZ-10 (77)	UT-5 (5)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Both candidates numbers are only totaled through their rival's toss up states. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crosses (or McCain would cross) the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. It is currently favoring Obama, thus the blue text in that cell.

Shake ups aside, there just wasn't enough movement as a result of adding these polls to our averages to push any of the states into different categories much less shift any state across the partisan line on the Electoral College Spectrum. With ten days left, then, the electoral vote tally still stands at 338-200 for Barack Obama. Florida is the closest state currently in blue, but it would require a seven point margin in the very next poll to swing the Sunshine state back into the red. On the other side of the partisan lie, Missouri is the closest of the red states at the moment. For the Show-Me state to turn blue, Obama would need an 11 point lead out of the next poll. In both cases, the magic number seems a bit too high to be feasible. But the momentum in both states is trending toward Obama and while an 11 point poll out of Missouri seems unlikely, a continued series of smaller Obama leads could also shift the state into the blue. There is no early voting in Missouri, so both campaigns have an opportunity to make last pitches to Missourians to tweak their positions there relative to each other.

The Watch List*
State	Switch
Colorado	from Obama lean	to Toss Up Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up McCain
Georgia	from Strong McCain	to McCain lean
Michigan	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Missouri	from Toss Up McCain	to Toss Up Obama
Montana	from McCain lean	to Toss Up McCain
New Mexico	from Obama lean	to Strong Obama
Virginia	from Toss Up Obama	to Obama lean
*Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Missouri was the only state on the Watch List (those states most likely to change categories) to have a new poll released on Saturday, and really, the Show-Me state along with Florida are the states to watch most closely every day. They are the states where category changes have electoral votes switching sides involved.

Ten days left.


Recent Posts:
Early Voting and McCain's Home-Stretch Strategy

The Electoral College Map (10/25/08)

The Electoral College Map (10/24/08)