Rove on Pawlenty in 2012

There's nothing groundbreaking here, but in a Thursday address to a gathering at St. Olaf's College in Northfield, MN, Karl Rove had a few things to say about Tim Pawlenty in the context of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

“Tim’s smart, thoughtful, thinks outside the box. He has a lot of new ideas.” But, he added, that between now and the 2012 presidential primaries, Pawlenty will have to roll up his sleeves and help other Republican candidates get elected if he wants a shot at the White House.

Well, I'd say that's why Freedom First PAC is now up and operational. But we'll have to see how effective it is at collecting and distributing money strategically to candidates around the country. Pawlenty's got some catching up to do given where Romney, Palin and Huckabee are PAC-wise.


Recent Posts:
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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/2/09)

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Word of this poll came out prior to the first debate of the New Jersey governors race, but still, following that debate where independent candidate, Chris Daggett stole the show, this can't be good news for the Christie campaign. The Republican is increasingly coming back to the pack and a visible alternative can only serve to potentially split the anti-incumbent/anti-Corzine vote. Is Corzine in the clear, though? No, but the governor did manage to break the 40% barrier which has to be seen as partially positive. After all, if Daggett ends up with around 10% of the vote on November 3, then the race is to 45. 42% is better, but Christie is still closer at 46%

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Daily Kos/Research 2000	Sept. 28-30, 2009	+/- 4%	600 likely voters	42	46	7	5

But Corzine isn't really at 42%. He is in this poll, but he has certainly been underperforming that mark in all but a few polls throughout all of 2009 and hasn't really been to that height recently. FHQ still has the incumbent Democrat in the same 38% range, but he is inching upward while Christie is sliding. If the race continues on this current trajectory, it is going to, as seems to be the case given recent polling in the Virginia race, be about turnout. And given the Democratic bent of the Garden state that's good news at Drumthwacket.

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Recent Posts:
The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

The 2012 Presidential Candidates on Twitter (Sept. 2009)

The negative momentum of August seems to have carried over into September. FHQ speculated when looking over the August Twitter numbers for the prospective 2012 GOP presidential candidates that the summer congressional recess and their attendant town hall meetings had kept the candidates away from actively utilizing the service (and gathering new followers). Now granted, not all of the candidates below are members of Congress. In fact. it took adding Mike Pence to the list to even the group up to three members. [After the tied-for-third finish in last month's Value Voters Summit straw poll, we were going to include the Indiana congressman anyway.] So that doesn't seem to be what's driving this downturn.

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Other than Newt Gingrich, no one else seems to be playing the invisible primary field through Twitter (and the former Speaker may not be a prolific Twitterer for that purpose in the first place). Tim Pawlenty is giving all indications that he's laying the groundwork for a run in 2012, John Thune is taking advantage of his position as head of the Republican Policy Committee in the Senate, Rick Santorum actually set foot in Iowa, Mitt Romney's doing all he can to maintain the air of a frontrunner and Sarah Palin is being Sarah Palin. But none of them are using Twitter to build a following and drive a message; well, not in the way that Palin is using Facebook at least. No, none of them are.

...yet.

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Yes, Palin and Gingrich are the best positioned of the bunch to get a message out quickly via Twitter and that is even with Palin not tweeting since she left office in July. @SarahPalinUSA changed back to @AKGovSarahPalin and the former is now its own feed, but remains dormant for the time being. Also, Mitt Romney had another account verified through Twitter, so he's back to square one as well. The former Massachusetts governor continues to look good on paper for 2012, but that hasn't stretched to Twitter.

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Our new addition, Mike Pence, enters with a pretty good tweet per day ratio (more now than the dormant Sarah Palin). Like most however, Pence isn't getting much bang for his buck. For as much as the Indiana congressman is putting into Twitter, he's not getting many followers in return (see Follower Ratio below). Gingrich is understandable. He tweets a lot and has now cracked the one million follower barrier. However, for as much as they use Twitter (not that often), Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty have pretty good followings and resultant follower ratios (followers per tweet per day).

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Still, it was another slow month on the Twitter front for the prospective 2012 Republicans. The argument could be made that the fight is elsewhere now -- away from 2010 or 2012 and focused on health care or cap and trade. That may be true, but couldn't these folks be using Twitter to speak out on those issues? Yes, and some are.


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FHQ Friday Fun: The Wii on Capitol Hill & The First Lady on Sesame St.

How widespread is Wii use on the Hill? Is this a generational thing? We need to have some research done on this.

Pat, in addition to being a former high school class mate of mine was also the youngest member of Congress when he was elected in 2004 and held that distinction until after Aaron Schock was elected last year.




And I can't let this one pass (too funny on a Friday). Hat tip to Alex Koppelman for the link.



Enough fun. I'll have a New Jersey update up sometime this evening and will probably get to the monthly update of the 2012 GOP presidential candidates on Twitter first.


Recent Posts:
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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (10/1/09)

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The other shoe dropped today on the day of the first gubernatorial debate in New Jersey. Yesterday it was Quinnipiac that showed a closer race after having shown Chris Christie comfortably ahead for much of the year. Today it is Monmouth/Gannett, that's following suit. Of course, Daily Kos/Research 2000 are going to show an equally tight race in the morning.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Monmouth/Gannett [pdf]	Sept. 24-29, 2009	+/- 4.3%	527 likely voters	40	43	8	8

Again, though, this is evidence not of a Corzine comeback (He has inched into the 39-40% range this week.), but of Republican Chris Christie's decline from a summer peak in the lower 50s. Independent candidate Chris Daggett initially seemed to be taking away support from Corzine, but as Christie drops and Daggett remains around the same level in the polls, on its face at least, it appears as if he may be drawing more support from the Republican.

We'll have to see what the internals on the Kos poll look like in the morning.

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FHQ typically eschews an out of context glance at one single poll, all by its lonesome. Taken in context, though, single polls can be of use. Take for example the polling numbers released this week in the Virginia governors race. On Tuesday, we got some fairly divergent numbers from Public Policy Polling and Survey USA. The former showed a tighter race, while the latter broke with the trend established across other recent polls, showing a significant berth between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds. If you average the two polls (without any kind of weighting), you end up with a 51.5-42 McDonnell edge. That outcome was echoed in the Rasmussen poll released on Wednesday.

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Rasmussen	Sept. 29, 2009	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	42	51	7

Is that where this race stands? Possibly, but by FHQ's measure that overestimates McDonnell's position in the race but is consistent on Deeds. The underlying dynamic in this race is based on who undecideds side with (whether it will break toward one candidate or be split fairly evenly) and how well each side is able to turnout its voters. McDonnell has been mostly stable over the last few weeks in FHQ's averages and comfortably ahead of his Democratic rival. The Republican has been in the 48-49% range while most of the movement has been with Deeds. That continues to be the story. With less than five weeks left in the campaign, Deeds is faced with having to swing those undecideds and independents (something with which the thesis matter seemed to be helping) and energize his base of voters.

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More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

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Democratic Change Commission Set to Meet on Oct. 24 in Washington

From Frank Leone at DemRulz:

The DNC Change Commission, which is reviewing the Democratic Party Presidential candidate nomination process will meet on Saturday, October 24, 2009, at 9:30 (tentative) at the Capital Hilton, 1001 16th Street, NW, Washington DC. The Commission will continue to focus on state nomination process calender, superdelegates, and caucuses. I plan to attend and report.

FHQ might [MIGHT] follow Leone's lead and attend. I'll have to check my schedule around that time. I'll keep you posted.


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More on the Temporary Delegate Selection Committee: Iowa and Instant Runoffs?

Iowa seems safe for 2012; at least its presidential caucuses are in the eyes of one Iowan on the Republican Party's Temporary Delegate Selection Committee.

"The focus of the discussion has moved beyond Iowa to what comes after it, [Temporary Delegate Selection Committee member Brian]Kennedy said after Monday's meeting in Washington."

In other words, the bigger fight ahead of the 2012 nomination cycle from both parties' perspectives is not who is first (or among the first) but preventing an early logjam similar to 2008's Super Tuesday again instead. Iowa and New Hampshire are simply better able to make a move to early January or even December of the year prior to the election year than are other states.

"Everyone has their parochial issues, but I think they've decided it's a fight not worth waging," Kennedy said. "There's a recognition you have to have a broad consensus to get a two-thirds vote of the RNC. If you do something as dramatic as changing Iowa and New Hampshire, that might make it difficult to achieve the two-thirds."

But what's under consideration by the 15 members of the Republican panel is what is the most interesting.

"We've probably looked at every proposition made over the last decade," Kennedy said, including holding a series of primaries or regional primaries or a national primary where Republicans would vote for their top three choices to narrow the field. Nothing has been ruled out, but he senses little interest in upsetting the Iowa-New Hampshire-South Carolina apple cart.

Regional primaries are nothing new, but this idea of a national primary with a top three vote is a new twist. I don't know if what the Republicans have in mind is an instant runoff system. That would certainly add a new element to the selection of presidential nominees.


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State of the Race: New Jersey Governor (9/30/09)

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New Jersey's race for governor seems to be tightening some. FHQ has long been moderately skeptical of Chris Christie's return from a midsummer's polling peak. But now that one of the main hold outs -- one of the polls that has consistently shown the Republican up by near double digits (or more) leads -- has indicated that the race is closer, strange things may indeed be afoot at the Circle K. Given that Governor Corzine is still mired in the high 30s, this seems to be pointing toward independent candidate Chris Daggett having a significant impact on the outcome of this race.

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Corzine	Christie	Daggett	Undecided
Quinnipiac	Sept. 23-28, 2009	+/- 2.8%	1188 likely voters	39	43	12	6

But let's not read too much into one poll. The truth of the matter is that this poll has very little effect on the FHQ averages for the race. In fact, the numbers have basically flatlined for the two major party candidates since the previous poll -- last week's Democracy Corp poll. Where does that leave us with less than five weeks left in the race? Well, Christie is slowly dropping but Corzine isn't going much of anywhere. The governor continues to occupy a spot in the 37-39% range and doesn't appear to be going anywhere fast. The question for him now is, "Can Daggett pull enough away from Christie to keep the incumbent in office?" With a little over a month left, we're about to find out.

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State of the Race: Virginia Governor (9/29/09)

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Which is it?

Deeds continues to close in...

or

News 7/Survey USA poll shows frontrunners in November elections

That is the question with two new and divergent polls out today in the Virginia governors race. FHQ is of the opinion that it doesn't have to be an either or proposition. Let's look at the facts:

1) Obviously the PPP poll is more in line with recent polling showing a tighter race. McDonnell is still ahead and is right below the 50% mark.

2) The Survey USA poll, then, appears to be an outlier, but in actuality is fairly closely aligned with the other polls the firm has done on this race since July. The poll at the beginning of September showed a 54-42 McDonnell lead and this current poll matches the former state attorney general's high water polling mark from a Survey USA poll in July. That July poll was also the first poll to show McDonnell breaking away from Deeds following the Democrat's primary victory in early June. That trend survived until about a week into September.

But is it an outlier or not?

2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Race Polling
Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Deeds	McDonnell	Undecided
Survey USA	Sept. 26-28, 2009	+/- 4%	631 likely voters	41	55	4
Public Policy Polling [pdf]	Sept. 25-28, 2009	+/- 4.1%	576 likely voters	43	48	9

One really has to look no further than the three areas the Republican Governors Association pointed to this morning to see:

1) The number of Ds to Rs.
2) The spread among women.
3) The spread among independents.

Let's look at the numbers:

In the PPP poll:
1) The sample was 37% Democrats and 29% Republicans.
2) Deeds led by 8 points among women.
3) The Democratic state senator trailed McDonnell by 16 among independents (but that was down from 29 points with the same group a month ago.).

In the Survey USA poll:
1) The sample was 37% Republican and 32% Democratic.
2) McDonnell led by 10 points with women.
3) McDonnell also led by 24 points with independents.

On its face, the Democrat-to-Republican ratio likely explains much of the difference between the two polls. But the numbers among women in the Survey USA poll don't jibe with what has been witnessed in some of the other recent polls showing Deeds making strides among the group. The gap has been relatively small by gender gap standards, but Deeds has seemingly pulled ahead. That divergence doesn't hold with the Survey USA independent numbers. The Insider Advantage polls from late last week showed a similar (+20 point) advantage for McDonnell and, indeed, the previous PPP poll showed a McDonnell edge greater than that.

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Which is it then? Well, the PPP is more in line with recent polling while the internals from Survey USA are not (though they paint a consistent picture throughout the firm's polling in the race). The fact is, the thesis seems to have had some impact, but is hardly costing McDonnell the race. The Republican is still hovering around 50% in FHQ's averages of the race and Deeds is further back hoping the undecideds in the race break for him in the end.


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