Tis the Season

FHQ has been fearful of this happening for a while now. My Google Alert for frontloading activity ahead of the 2012 presidential primary cycle is turning up more and more links to frontloading washers and dryers; the payments on which you can delay until 2012. How exciting! [Hey! I felt the need to share. Maybe you're interested in a new washer and dryer?]

On another note, we'd like to apologize for being quiet the last few days. Winston Salem got hit by the snowstorm that has made its way up the eastern seaboard and, well, I've been distracted. Hopefully something will be up late tonight and with some more regularity this week.


Recent Posts:
Have Things Really Gotten This Bad for Democrats?

Who's Happy with a the Parties' Tentative Outline of a Primary Calendar for 2012?

USA Today Presidential Approval Tracker is Now in FHQ's Side Bar

Have Things Really Gotten This Bad for Democrats?

[Click to Enlarge]

Are liberals serious about this? FHQ is sure some are -- there are only 35 votes on that poll -- but c'mon. I don't understand the purism on the extreme end of both parties. If you want to get something -- anything -- done, you have to have members of your party in power (And yes, that means members of the same party with differing viewpoints.). Undercutting this president or any other is simply political fratricide. All or nothing is no way to approach American politics. It never has been, and in a supermajoritarian body like the Senate, it never will be.


Recent Posts:
Who's Happy with a the Parties' Tentative Outline of a Primary Calendar for 2012?

USA Today Presidential Approval Tracker is Now in FHQ's Side Bar

Public Policy Polling: December 2009 Presidential Trial Heats In Depth

Who's Happy with a the Parties' Tentative Outline of a Primary Calendar for 2012?

Well, the early states, of course.

In New Hampshire, they are taking the news that the state will be spared its customary quadrennial battle over its first-in-the-nation primary status with a grain of salt. To Granite stater residents being exempt by the parties to hold a February primary while everyone else (except Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina) goes after the beginning of March, but...

First, it’s only 2009 and anything could happen. President Barack Obama didn’t win New Hampshire last year, so his loyalty to the local cause may not be as urgent as we would like. It’s possible too, of course, that he has other things on his mind. Additionally, who knows which late-calendar state is quietly plotting against us? Remember Michigan? Remember Delaware? Challenges to New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status can come from anywhere at any time, regardless of what the party leaders are saying today.

I don't know that I buy the "Obama didn't win here, so he might not care one way or the other about our primary status" logic. The president will need New Hampshire in the general election in 2012. [It is one of only three states that flipped sides between 2000 and 2004, after all. New Hampshire is likely to be competitive.] And the Democratic Change Commission has not even considered stripping the Granite state's of its distinction. In most years, there has at least been some discussion of why New Hampshire, and that was true of the Change Commission's discussion as well. However, that action was never a vital part of the mission of the group. Now, it could be that the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee looks at the Change Commission's recommendations and decides that New Hampshire and the other exempt states are too favored when they decide on the rules for 2012 over the summer, but there is absolutely no indication that that is going to happen.

On the second point, all FHQ has to add is what we have been saying all along. For there to be true reform of the primary process or at least meaningful sanctions for rules violators, the parties will have to coordinate their efforts and represent a united front. This is something New Hampshire and its citizens should be highly interest in. Both parties are letting the New Hampshire/Iowa question slide for this cycle, and as such, the only real threats to the Granite state's status are rogues states like Florida and Michigan. And even if the parties cannot offer a cohesive rules regime on the 2012 presidential nominations, the Granite state still has the easiest time of shifting its primary date as any other state. The secretary of state, Bill Gardner, has the ability to place the primary wherever he wishes while most other primary states have to get such a change through the state legislature and past the governor -- something that is easier said than done.

But New Hampshire isn't the only early state with its eyes on the 2012 calendar rule-making. South Carolina is also keeping watch (...and also, like their Granite state brethren, taking the early news of the 2012 rules with a grain of salt).


Recent Posts:
USA Today Presidential Approval Tracker is Now in FHQ's Side Bar

Public Policy Polling: December 2009 Presidential Trial Heats In Depth

The Links (12/10/09)

USA Today Presidential Approval Tracker is Now in FHQ's Side Bar

This is something FHQ should have done when this interactive presidential approval tracker was first posted over the summer. Better late than never, I suppose.


You can now find a link to the USA Today's Interactive Presidential Approval Tracker in the left sidebar. Obama's approval has come up too much in the comments in the time since this summer not to have a permanent and up-front link to this tool. Enjoy and use it wisely.



Recent Posts:
Public Policy Polling: December 2009 Presidential Trial Heats In Depth

The Links (12/10/09)

PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Dec. '09): Huckabee within 1 Point of Obama

Public Policy Polling: December 2009 Presidential Trial Heats In Depth

You can find the archive of all the 2012 trial heat polls here.

In a month when President Obama slipped into the 40s against each Republican polled against him in a hypothetical 2012 general election match up (via Public Policy Polling [pdf]), things obviously were not looking that good across the board. In an overall sense, we quickly get a feel for that tightening simply by looking at the trendlines for each of the prospective Republican presidential aspirants (There's now even a trendline for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty -- see below and in the left sidebar).

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 46%
Huckabee: 45%
Undecided: 9%

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 50%
Palin: 44%
Undecided: 6%

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 48%
Pawlenty: 35%
Undecided: 17%

[Click to Enlarge]

Obama: 47%
Romney: 42%
Undecided: 12%

Margin of Error: +/- 2.8%
Sample: 1253 registered voters (nationwide)
Conducted: December 4-7, 2009

There isn't really much to the poll other than to say that overall, things are much closer than they were, say, at the beginning of PPP's process of looking at the the 2012 back in March (Palin) and April (Gingrich, Huckabee, Romney added). And that largely tracks with the president's approval numbers throughout the year. FHQ would be remiss, though, if we didn't at least bring up a few nuggets from the internals of the poll.

On the 2008 presidential vote:

• Huckabee does the best of any of the Republican candidates at pulling together the most McCain voters (85%) and minimizing the number of repeat Obama voters (89%). The former Arkansas governor was the only Republican to keep Obama's support among his former voters below 90%.

On ideology:

• President Obama is still approaching 90% approval among liberals and is right at two-thirds approval among moderates. Not surprisingly, the president is taking the biggest hit among self-described conservatives (only 15% approve).
• Sarah Palin is the most favorable candidate to conservatives, but both she and Mike Huckabee garner 79% support from the group against the president.
  

On age:

• Obama consistently loses the 65+ set and essentially breaks even (to slightly loses) the 46-65 demographic to all the Republicans polled. However, the president is well above 50% with everyone under 45.

On race:

• Palin is the most favorable Republican among Hispanic respondents, but only reaches 37% favorability. The president continues to hold over 90% support among registered African American voters and about two-thirds of Hispanic voters against all four Republicans.

On gender:

• Men still prefer Republicans and women Obama, but this is noteworthy because it is the first time Sarah Palin has led the president among men (48-45) in a PPP survey.
  

On region:

• The quirk is gone (...in December at least). Obama didn't sweep the South as he has on several other occasions in these PPP polls. Instead, the president was swept in the region where the Republican Party found its base in the 2008 presidential election. More troubling to Obama from an electoral standpoint is that the president was swept by all four Republicans in the midwest. The president was able to make inroads in the peripheral South in 2008 and can potentially afford to jettison states like Virginia and North Carolina in 2012. But if Michigan and Indiana and Ohio begin to creep into the mix in terms of competitiveness, things could get interesting in the fall of 2012. Much of that will depend on the state of the economy, though.
  

What will January and a new year bring? Stay tuned.


Recent Posts:
The Links (12/10/09)

PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Dec. '09): Huckabee within 1 Point of Obama

Democrats and Republicans Unified on a March Primary Start? All Signs Point Toward Yes

The Links (12/10/09)

1. John Thune has your gubernatorial presidential aspirations right here.

...in the Senate. The South Dakota senator is still FHQ's 2012 darkhorse of the moment. I still think 2016 is more likely, though. If Thune is anything, it's shrewd.

2. South Carolina Republicans are like Idaho Republicans: They want closed primaries in the presidential delegate selection races in the Palmetto state.

3. Local fare: Cal Cunningham's chances in North Carolina depend on DSCC investment.

...in his primary race against Elaine Marshall first (to even have a shot at Richard Burr).

4. State of Elections has another great redistricting reform post up. Read away.


Recent Posts:
PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Dec. '09): Huckabee within 1 Point of Obama

Democrats and Republicans Unified on a March Primary Start? All Signs Point Toward Yes

Coakley, Brown Win Parties' Nods in MA Senate Specials

PPP: 2012 Presidential Trial Heats (Dec. '09): Huckabee within 1 Point of Obama

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released their monthly look at the 2012 presidential playing field. Here's a quick look a the toplines (I'll be back later with a full analysis and updated figures.*):

Obama: 46%
Huckabee: 45%
Undecided: 9%

Obama: 50%
Palin: 44%
Undecided: 6%

Obama: 48%
Pawlenty: 35%
Undecided: 17%

Obama: 47%
Romney: 42%
Undecided: 12%


Margin of Error: +/- 2.8%
Sample: 1253 registered voters (nationwide)
Conducted: December 4-7, 2009

Quick notes:
1) Palin is ahead of Obama among men (a first).
2) Obama didn't sweep the South this month. Every GOP candidate was ahead of the president in the region most loyal to the GOP and the midwest isn't looking too good either.
3) Huckabee was the only Republican to break even in terms of favorability/unfavorability. The other three Republicans had higher unfavorables.
4) Palin still has yet to bring Obama under the 50% mark in these PPP polls.

*Two polls now for Pawlenty (v. Obama) means we have a new trendline to add to the sidebar.


Recent Posts:
Democrats and Republicans Unified on a March Primary Start? All Signs Point Toward Yes

Coakley, Brown Win Parties' Nods in MA Senate Specials

Huckabee's Favorability in the Post-Commutation Environment

Democrats and Republicans Unified on a March Primary Start? All Signs Point Toward Yes

The Concord Monitor has a great piece this morning looking at the thinking within both the Democratic and Republican Parties concerning the rules (RE: timing) for 2012 presidential delegate selection. The consensus seems to be that the Democratic Change Commission and Republican Temporary Delegate Selection Committee (meeting today) are both committed to closing the window (of time in which primaries and caucuses can be held) to exclude February from the equation. The Democrats are still willing to let Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina go in February and the Republicans are committed to same thing (with the exception of Nevada*). Still, the commitment appears to be there on the part of both parties to scale the length of the presidential primary process back with regard to timing.

Both groups making 2012 recommendations are committed to this, but will the actual decision-makers within the parties (the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee and the full RNC) who will sign off on this actually do that? That is the question of the moment. For the time being, though, the fact that the parties are working separately together on this speaks to the idea that both acknowledge the necessity of teamwork to change the system and avoid additional Florida and Michigan situations in either party.

NOTE: This article has also done a good job at looking at some of the rules changes from 1996 onward that brought the primary system to where it was in 2008. A good read.

*What will Nevada Republicans do if this comes to pass? It seems like they would have an incentive to shirk on this discrepancy if the penalty isn't just right to dissuade them. That will come up at some point.


Recent Posts:
Coakley, Brown Win Parties' Nods in MA Senate Specials

Huckabee's Favorability in the Post-Commutation Environment

Thoughts on the Special Democratic Primary Election in Massachusetts Today?

Coakley, Brown Win Parties' Nods in MA Senate Specials

[Map courtesy of The Boston Globe--Click to Enlarge]

UPDATE: The map above shows the complete results with 100% reporting.

With 95% of the precincts reporting, Democratic Massachusetts Attorney General, Martha Coakley, and Republican state senator, Scott Brown have earned their respective parties' nominations to face off in the January 19 special (general) election to succeed Ted Kennedy in the Senate. Coakley, in a multi-candidate race nearly reached 50% (at 47% as of now) while Brown amassed over 80% of the Republican primary vote.

It may not be the most exciting thing in the world, but there will be a high profile election on January 19 and FHQ will be watching.


Recent Posts:
Huckabee's Favorability in the Post-Commutation Environment

Thoughts on the Special Democratic Primary Election in Massachusetts Today?

Democratic Change Commission 2012 Rules Recommendations Taking Shape

Huckabee's Favorability in the Post-Commutation Environment

Tom Jensen over at Public Policy Polling's blog got the ball rolling on this today, by giving us all a sneak peek into the firm's monthly 2012 presidential trial heat poll (due out Thursday). The early conclusion? The former Arkansas governor's commutation of Maurice Clemmons, who subsequently went on a shooting rampage, killing four Washington state police officers, has not affected Mike Huckabee's favorability compared to a few weeks ago. And he'll be even closer against Obama than he has been all year in the head-to-head match up.

Granted, some of the reaction has been Huckabee Unscathed and Huck holding on and FHQ isn't really buying that due to a couple of caveats (We would add a "yet" to the end anyone attempting to glean a long-term pattern in all of this.). First, I'm treating this like the McDonnell thesis revelation in the Virginia gubernatorial race. That news had been out in the open for two solid weeks before there was any noticeable tightening in the race between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds. I don't think that the two week pattern is any hard and fast rule for finding the true impact of some moderately large piece of news (positive or negative), but the thesis example does indicate that it takes some time for that news to filter into the public's consciousness and into survey results. In this case, the Huckabee news broke coming out of Thanksgiving weekend.

Were/are people even paying attention? And speaking of attention, all this Huckabee speculation concerns 2012. Some people -- present company included -- are certainly thinking about that election, but most out there are not. This Clemmons/Huckabee connection isn't like the McDonnell thesis; it did not come out in the middle of a campaign. Well, the invisible primary campaign is active for the 2012 Republican nomination whether anyone wants to admit to that or not, but that is on the candidate end and not the voter end of the matter.

Long story short, then, this matter has not fully played itself out yet. It is just too early. It would have been different had this happened in the midst of the actual 2012 campaign or if PPP had posed a question about the Clemmons situation prior to asking the Huckabee favorability question. But it didn't. As such, wait for the effect. Keep an eye on the January numbers.


Recent Posts:
Thoughts on the Special Democratic Primary Election in Massachusetts Today?

Democratic Change Commission 2012 Rules Recommendations Taking Shape

Democratic Change Commission Meeting (#3) Tomorrow