With RNC Chairman Reince Priebus in Tampa to check out the location of the 2012 GOP convention on Wednesday and calling for Sunshine State Republicans to schedule a later presidential primary, Florida Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith agreed and called once again for the state to move the primary back.
The primary was held early in 2008 despite protests by both major national parties. Smith had sent a letter to the Republican Party of Florida back in January to hold the primary later in the year.
“As Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus reminds Florida’s Republican leaders of the penalties they would face unless they change the presidential primary date, today I am renewing my call for bi-partisan cooperation on this issue,” said Smith. “While changing the date of the primary would require action by the Republican Legislature and governor, I am confident that we can make this happen given the governor’s expressed desire to hold the primary as early as possible without losing delegates.”
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
FL Democratic Party Chair Piggybacks on Priebus' Call for Later Primary
Florida will continue to be a factor in what eventual shape the 2012 presidential primary calendar will take. And Smith is right to put this on the Republican-controlled state legislature (and Governor Scott). They hold all the cards on the decision of when the state's presidential primary will be scheduled (or if there will be a change from the current January 31, 2012 date). The legislature convenes next month.
RNC chairman urges Legislature: no early primaries, please
From the St. Petersburg Times on RNC Chair Reince Priebus' trip to central Florida this week:
The new chairman of the Republican National Committee Wednesday urged Florida lawmakers not to hold an early presidential primary in 2012 in violation of RNC rules.Here's what new RNC chairman Reince Priebus said on the subject after a meeting in Tampa with members of the local Host Committee for the 2012 GOP convention:
"We're doing everything we can at the Republican National Committee to fulfill our promise to try and get presidential primaries on track with some semblance of order. One of the things that we did is that we've put together a primary schedule for the presidentials which protects four early state primaries in February" — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — "but then moves all the other states out of the February window to a date on or after March 1.
"In the March 1 window," he added, "that is to be a proportional-type delegate award system. And then in the April window, that is a potentially winner-take-all, if the state chooses so, delegate award system.
"As far as Florida is concerned, I would do encourage the Legislature to do everything they can to abide by the rules passed by both the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee together to make sure we can bring some order into the presidential election process," Priebus said.
The scheduling of Florida's primary is something Priebus, elected two weeks ago to replace former RNC chairman Michael Steele, said he has already discussed with Florida Gov. Rick Scott. Asked whether Scott told Priebus that he wanted a primary as early as possible without losing delegates, the RNC chairman declined further comment.
"I just don't feel at liberty to talk about a private conversation with the governor," he said.
Your move Florida legislature.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Virginia Senate Bill to Move Primary to March Passes
SB 1246, the Virginia Senate bill to move the commonwealth's 2012 presidential primary from the second Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March, overwhelmingly passed the chamber today. Senator Vogel's (R) bill made it through the Senate with only one dissenting vote (39Y, 1N). As FHQ pointed out this morning, this clears the way for consideration of the one bill that is now before the House of Delegates. HB 1667, which would have changed the date of the presidential primary as well as reduced the petition signature requirement was incorporated into HB 1843 (the same bill as SB 1246) by voice vote in the subcommittee of the House Privileges and Elections Committee. HB 1843 subsequently emerged from that subcommittee with a unanimous (6Y, 0N) recommendation for reporting to the full committee with amendments.
As Virginia's state legislature is only in session until February 26, this bill, if it is going to be passed, is likely to move quickly.
Vote on Primary Bill Should Come in VA Senate Today, Hearings in WA & CA Later in the Week
Yesterday, SB 1246 received its second reading (consideration of amendments if any) and was engrossed, clearing the way for an up or down vote on the measure in the state Senate to shift Virginia's 2012 presidential primary from the second Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. That vote should come, barring other pressing business, some time today. The clearest way for this bill to pass is if its companion in the House of Delegates (the exact same bill), HB 1843, is passed and largely avoids the problem of any hiccups in conference. The next stop would be Governor Bob McDonnell's desk. And if the preliminary votes in the Senate are any indication, this bill has bipartisan support and would be difficult for the governor to ignore.
Later this week, there will also be public hearings on the bills in Washington and California. The Washington Senate bill, SB 5119, passed its first hurdle, receiving a "Do Pass" designation from the Governmental Operations, Tribal Affairs and Elections Committee, and was subsequently referred to Ways and Means which will hold the hearing on Thursday, February 3.
On the same day, California's Assembly committee on elections is due to hold a public hearing on AB 80, the legislation that would eliminate the separate presidential primary in California and place it in June with the primaries for state and local offices. That status tracker has said "may be heard in committee February 3" since it was introduced. However, I spoke with someone from the LA Times yesterday about the 2012 calendar and the California bill who is planning on covering the hearing on Thursday. No, that doesn't cement that hearing time, but it does add more certainty to it.
Both hearings will be interesting to follow from the standpoint of the pros and cons arguments that are likely to be made. Washington's state parties have scarcely utilized the state's presidential primary system for allocating delegates, and the move there is somewhat understandable from a financial perspective. And certainly there are financial concerns with the California bill as well, but the most populous state in the country would be giving up quite a position and some influence over the nomination in the process by moving. Despite the fact that California was behind the several January states and among the Super Tuesday logjam, it was still the fifth most visited state (by the candidates) overall in the 2008 cycle.*
*[Now, visits are only one metric we could use to quantify attention paid to the states, and thus, potential influence that state has over the race. One could also look at spending in each state or ad buys. The latter has been used more often lately as the matching fund system crumbled and it became more difficult to ascertain where candidates were actually spending, not raising, their money.]
CORRECTION (2/2/11): The California Assembly's Elections and Redistricting Committee -- to committee to which AB 80 has been referred -- does not have a hearing scheduled for February 3 to discuss that legislation. It should be noted that the committee meets regularly on the first and third Tuesday of every month at 1:30pm. Yesterday would have been the first opportunity for the committee to have addressed this bill and it will not have another chance until February 15 according to that schedule. Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for keeping FHQ apprised of the situation.
Monday, January 31, 2011
DC to Move Back? Up?
Early indications from the Council of the District of Columbia are that a bill will be introduced to move the district's primary to early July 2012. No, not the presidential primary necessarily, but the primaries for other local and district-wide offices. There has been some push by the DC Board of Elections and Ethics to hold the presidential primary concurrently with the other primaries -- more than likely as a cost-saving measure like what California and New Jersey are attempting to do.
The problem with a July presidential primary is that it falls outside of the party-designated window in which primaries and caucuses can be held. Either the two sets of primaries will continue to be held separately or the two will be held together but slightly earlier so as to fall inside the window. And while the presidential primary may remain separate from the other primaries, the move to July (from the traditional September timing) is fairly significant. It would keep DC in line with the federally-passed MOVE act.
Regardless, this July timing is seen as a starting point.
[It should also be noted that DC held its 2008 presidential primary in conjunction with Maryland and Virginia on February 12, the week after Super Tuesday. Virginia has three bills proposed in its state legislature to move the commonwealth's primary back to March and Maryland has yet to act, though there has been some talk about when the 2012 primary will be held.]
Sunday, January 30, 2011
2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Jan. 24-30)
While there wasn't any 2012 calendar movement this past week, there was some further movement toward movement. But what is known this week versus last:
- Virginia is moving closer to a vote in the state Senate on moving the commonwealth's presidential primary back to March.
- A host of bills to accomplish the same thing (February to March primary) in Oklahoma have been pre-filed and are waiting on the state legislature to convene there on February 7.
- The Senate bill to cancel the 2012 presidential primary in Washington emerged from committee and awaits the decision of the Ways and Means Committee before sending it to the floor for an up or down vote.
- The solution in Kansas is similar to Washington, but appears to be a permanent cancelation of the Sunflower state's presidential primary. No dates for the caucuses in either party are known now, and on the Republican side may not be known until next year according to one Republican activist at the state party's meeting over the weekend.
- Oh, and Idaho is looking into frontloading its primary. ...by one week to mid-May.
- As has been mentioned in this space several times, there are currently 18 states with presidential primaries scheduled for February 2012. That would put those 18 states in violation of both parties' delegate selection rules for 2012.
- Of those 18 primary states, 14 of them (California, Connecticut, Missouri, New York, Arizona, Georgia, Delaware, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Utah and Virginia) have convened their 2011 state legislative sessions.
- Of those 14 states, 3 (California, New Jersey and Virginia) have bills that have been introduced and are active within the state legislature to move their contests' dates. Both California and New Jersey have bills that would eliminate an early and separate presidential primaries and position those events with the other primaries for state and local offices. That would mean June presidential primaries for both states if those bills pass and are signed into law.
- For this next week, then, the 14 early states in conflict with the national parties' rules will be the ones to watch.
- Oregon's state legislature convenes this week, but none of the four additional states in violation of the national party rules begin their legislative work; not until Oklahoma next week.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Virginia Senate Bill to Move Presidential Primary Back to March Passes First Reading
As was discussed here earlier in the week, the Virginia Senate bill (SB 1246) to move the commonwealth's presidential primary from February to March emerged from committee and received/passed its first -- what's called a Constitutional -- reading from the full chamber. The upcoming second reading will have the full chamber consider and debate any amendments that were added to the bill in committee. No additional reports were issued on the bill, so it is likely that no amendments were added. To the extent that a debate is necessary on this bill, one will take place this week. If the bill passes that test on the floor, it will be engrossed and subsequently given an up or down vote for full passage. Again, most of that should happen this week, shifting the focus to the House of Delegates and the similar bills that chamber has before it.
Likely Replacement Bill to Move Idaho Presidential Primary Up Introduced
The election consolidation bill that was introduced in the Idaho House (HB 14) recently now has a what looks like a replacement. Like the earlier House bill, HB 60 would shift the date on which the Gem state's primaries -- including concurrent presidential primary -- from the fourth Tuesday in May to the third Tuesday in May. The only difference is that in this second bill secretary of state, Tim Hurst, inserted a section dealing with school trustees elections. The section that pertains to the timing of the presidential primary remains unchanged.
Both bills will appear in the Presidential Primary Bills Before State Legislatures section in the left sidebar. HB 60 will likely be the one to track however.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Update on Bill to Cancel the 2012 Kansas Presidential Primary
News broke yesterday that Kansas secretary of state, Kris Kobach, was advising the state legislature to cancel the Sunflower state's 2012 presidential primary for budgetary reasons, but the bill was not formally introduced in the state House until today. HB 2126 cancels the state's presidential primary and given all the strikethroughs cancels it for good. Now, nothing is ever gone forever, but in this instance all the references to the first Tuesday in April primary in even-numbered years have been struck though and replaced with the first Tuesday in August -- the state's traditional primary date for state and local offices. That August date is one that would fall outside -- on the back end -- of the window in which the parties allow states to hold delegate selection events. Obviously, an August date would not work simply because it would cut things quite close to the national conventions.
The odd thing is that there is only one reference in the bill to presidential preference primaries and it is in regard to the filing deadlines, not the timing of the contest. The option is still there, then, to hold a presidential primary in the future, but it will take a change in the law if this bill is passed and signed into law by Governor Brownback. [It should be noted for the sake of clarity that unlike the similar bill(s) in Washington, HB 2126 does not have a sunset provision temporarily canceling the presidential primary.] Given the facts that, one, the state rarely holds a presidential primary (see 2007 legislature's unsuccessful efforts to move it up) and, two, it saves the state as much as $2 million, this bill will likely pass. But we'll see.
This bill will be added to the Presidential Primary Bills Before State Legislatures section in the left side bar (under the current 2012 primary calendar and the rules). The status of HB 2126 and the bills from other states can be tracked from there.
2012 Presidential Primaries: North Carolina
Earlier this week the North Carolina General Assembly convened for the first time under Republican control since the Reconstruction era. This actually has some implications for the timing of the Tarheel state's presidential primary in 2012. In the Senate at least there has been Republican support for a February presidential primary for the last three sessions. Those bills (S18 -- 2005-06, S168 -- 2007-08, S150 -- 2009-10) were all proposed by Republican senator, Andrew Brock, and supported by a group of Republicans who signed on as cosponsors. However, during each of those sessions, the bills inevitable got stuck in the Judiciary (I) Committee then controlled by Democrats.
If the past three sessions are any indication, Brock and others may once again propose legislation to try and shift the presidential primary to an earlier date. But the change in control of the General Assembly doesn't make this a done deal. Republicans do control the committees now, but that's only part of the story. First, the Senate has yet to finalize the committees and committee assignments under the new regime. Secondly, there is no indication that there will be any support for such a measure in the lower chamber.
Finally even though North Carolina has some past experience with shifting the date on which its presidential primary is held (1976 and 1988), the state has consistently held that contest concurrently with the primaries for state and local offices (as a matter of convenience). The past two experiences with frontloading have been temporary actions that created and funded a separate presidential primary that was later canceled and moved back to coincide with the other primaries on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. There is emerging some evidence to suggest that, given budgetary constraints at the state level, states are less willing to fund a separate primary. California, New Jersey and Oklahoma already have proposed legislation on the table to pull separate presidential primaries back in line with the primaries for state and local offices or to defund the presidential primary altogether. Even with Republicans now in control of the North Carolina General Assembly, there may be some budgetary resistance to creating and funding a separate presidential primary.
And while there may yet be a bill proposed, there is still a question of when the new primary would be scheduled. Brock's past bills have called for a February primary, which at the times the were introduced were in compliance with the national party rules. But it is yet to be seen if there is a willingness to just move up to the earliest allowed date (March 6, 2012 in this case) or to go against both national parties' sets of delegate selection rules and go in February some time (as the proposed bill in Texas would do). This is all speculative, but much would likely depend on what the 18 currently non-compliant states do and how quickly they do it relative to when the General Assembly in North Carolina wraps up its business over the summer.
North Carolina, then, potentially represents a rare case during this cycle of a state that may move forward. The focus remains on those states that have to move back to be in compliance with the DNC's and RNC's rules. That new mandate for moving back is what makes this 2012 cycle and the formation of its presidential primary calendar unique compared to the race to the front that has marked recent cycles.
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