Oregon Democrats and Republicans on Opposite Ends of Primary Debate

The public hearing yesterday on HB 2429 -- a bill proposed in the Oregon House in January to move the Beaver state's primary from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June -- clearly indicated a partisan break in sentiment on the intent of the legislation. Oregon Democrats -- the majority party in the Oregon House -- came out in favor of the move.

House Democratic Leader Dave Hunt, who co-chairs the House Rules Committee, said he's considering the bill because it would shorten the period for the general election and provide more space between the new even-year sessions of the Legislature and the primary.

In the even years, the session could run as late as the filing deadline in early March, said Hunt, adding that he would prefer to provide some breathing space between the two.

Shortening the general election by what would amount to three weeks is probably not a solid enough argument for Democrats to make, but the filing deadline argument has some precedent. Discussions in Kentucky during the 2011 legislative session and in Arkansas in 2009 -- both concerning bills to move primaries to August -- contained similar arguments. The perceived benefit is that the filing deadline and thus the decision to run for candidates comes at a point in which the legislature is no longer in session. The "breathing space" Hunt mentions would separate legislative decisions from decisions to run for office; that the latter would have less influence on the former.

Legislative members of the Oregon GOP and the state party voiced far different opinions on the proposed move.

At the hearing, Tyler Smith, a lawyer representing the Oregon Republican Party, opposed the bill. He said the later primary date could complicate the ability of the party to select delegates for the Republican National Convention. And Rep. Vicki Berger, R-Salem, said she was skeptical of holding elections so close to summer when voters have their attentions diverted.

I don't know that either side has really developed a clear set of arguments on this proposed move. Three or four weeks deeper into the spring (or school year summer) probably won't make all that much difference to voters and it certainly won't complicate national convention delegate selection. Other states have scheduled and have had in the past early June primaries with little or no difficulty. The only potential conflict is that a later primary may come slightly closer to the point at which the state parties hold state conventions and begin identifying actual delegates to attend the national conventions. Those occur in July in Oregon, though, and the results of any primary would certainly have been finalized by that point whether in May or June.

In any event, there don't seem to be strong arguments for or against this measure and that doesn't necessarily bode well for the bill passing and being signed into law. Plus, in the grand scheme of things, it isn't in any way altering the impact Oregon is likely to have on the outcome of the Republican nomination race. Both dates are late enough that any impact would be dependent upon the race lasting that long. It could happen, but that goes against the grain of all post-reform Republican nominations.

NOTE: See an update on this post (with a deeper explanation of some of the state-level factors) here.

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An Update on Utah: Locked in on Feb. 7?

While some continue to harp on the Florida problem, there are other states that more immediately threaten the informally bartered scheduling arrangement the two national parties hammered out last year for the 2012 presidential primaries. Minnesota is somewhat locked into a February 7 caucus date for 2012, and while that falls just a day after when the national parties would like Iowa to hold its first in the nation caucuses, the state parties in Minnesota have the final say in the matter. The Minnesota GOP and DFL have to pay for the caucuses and can choose to schedule them when and where they want, though the national parties can lean on the state parties in a way that they cannot with state legislatures. The Minnesota situation is one, then, that has yet to completely play out. To some extent, it may depend on what happens in Florida. Should the state legislature in the Sunshine state opt to shift the primary back, pressure would grow on Minnesota's GOP to shift back as well.¹

Minnesota aside, however, the most imminent threat to the 2012 calendar is Utah. As FHQ pointed out last week, the state legislature in the Beehive state was set to wrap up the work of its 2011 session by March 10 -- today. At that point there were several active bills that dealt with or mentioned the state's Western States Presidential Primary, but none that directly dealt with an alteration of the February 7 date on which the primary is scheduled for 2012. In other words, there was active legislation dealing with elections, but it would take an amendment including a provision to change the presidential primary date as opposed to a newly introduced piece of legislation.

That window now seems to have closed. First of all, the deadline for one chamber of the legislature to have finished up consideration of bills and transmit them to the opposite chamber came and went with little fanfare on March 7 -- this past Monday. That deadline does not preclude the second chamber from adding amendments to an engrossed bill -- one that has passed one chamber -- but no such action has occurred between Monday's deadline and the today's final day of the session. In fact, the bills that even make mention of the Western States Presidential Primary now fall into two categories: 1) Bills that failed to pass one chamber by Monday and 2) Bills that have already been enrolled -- passed both chambers -- and are in the process of being transmitted to the governor for his consideration. Neither the bills that are dead nor those that are on the way to the governor include any provision to shift the February date on which the 2012 Utah presidential primary will be held.

Utah, then, is locked into February 7 for next year. The state-sanctioned, state-funded primary will take place on February 7 and while it is true that the state parties in Utah, like Minnesota, have some final say in this, they are less likely to pony up the money necessary to hold a caucus at a later date when a state-funded option is available. Utah Democrats may face some pressure from the DNC to hold a later caucus, but it is unclear how receptive the party would be to that. The best indication of their motives will be when the state party releases a draft of its delegate selection plan for public comment. Republicans in the state, however, have more incentive to buck the national party rules. They have a contested nomination race that might involve up to two favorite son candidates (Romney and Huntsman) and they, of course, have a state-funded option on February 7 at their disposal. So while there is a tradition of caucuses -- early in the post-reform era -- and party-run primaries in the Beehive state, Republicans are now likely to ignore that given a state-sanctioned alternative, albeit at non-compliant time -- on the first Tuesday in February.

With Utah seemingly more locked in on February 7 than Minnesota, the Republican calendar will undoubtedly and now somewhat more officially, kick off some time in January as opposed to the parties' preferred point in February.

NOTE: More on the situation in Utah here.

--

¹There is no doubt that the Minnesota DFL will schedule a later caucus date to comply with DNC rules. They will not pay the full costs of a caucus in February only to have the national party strip the state's Democratic delegation of half or more of its ranks in an uncontested race.

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Oklahoma Senate Passes Second Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March

For the second time in as many weeks, the Oklahoma Senate has passed a bill to shift the Sooner state's presidential primary back from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. However, SB 602 differs from SB 808 -- passed last week -- in that the former not only changes the presidential primary date but it also alters the date on which statewide and local primaries are held. The statewide primaries would move from the last Tuesday in July to the last Tuesday in June.

The legislation has a state House equivalent (HB 1615) that is sponsored by the same representative -- Rules Committee chair, Rep. Gary Banz (R-101st, Midwest City) -- who sponsored the House version of SB 808 (HB 1614). Now all four bills are being considered in the House.

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The Links (3/9/11): Ohio

Is there something unique about Ohio and the race to 270 electoral votes in the presidential general election?

William Galston says yes at least in terms of Obama's reelection chances.

Others agree but disagree:

Dave Weigel maps it.

Jonathan Bernstein says the Buckeye state is just like any other close state: in an election that favors one candidate over the other, most of the swing states are likely to break for that favored candidate.

Nate Silver parrots Bernstein and adds that "as the nation goes, so goes Ohio".

Ohio is like any other state in the middle column of the figure below (The figure reflects the 2008 results but with 2012 electoral vote numbers.):

The Electoral College Spectrum*
HI-4 (7)**	ME-4 (153)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (166)	NE-4 (58)
VT-3 (10)	WA-12 (165)	IA-6 (263)	SD-3 (150)	KY-8 (54)
RI-4 (14)	MI-16 (181)	CO-9*** (272/275)	ND-3 (147)	LA-8 (46)
MA-11 (25)	OR-7 (188)	VA-13 (285/266)	AZ-11 (144)	AR-6 (38)
NY-29 (54)	NJ-14 (202)	OH-18 (303/253)	SC-9 (133)	AL-9 (32)
DE-3 (57)	NM-5 (207)	FL-29 (332/235)	TX-38 (124)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (77)	WI-10 (217)	IN-11 (343/206)	WV-5 (86)	ID-4 (20)
MD-10 (87)	NV-6 (223)	NC-15+1**** (359/195)	MS-6 (81)	UT-6 (16)
CA-55 (142)	PA-20 (243)	MO-10 (179)	TN-11 (75)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (149)	MN-10 (253)	MT-3 (169)	KS-6 (64)	WY-3 (3)
*Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. **The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, McCain won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Obama's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. McCain's numbers are only totaled through the states he would have needed in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and McCain's is on the right in italics. ***Colorado is the state where Obama crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. ****Nebraska allocates electoral votes based on statewide results and the results within each of its congressional districts. Nebraska's 2nd district voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

It will blow with the partisan winds like any other state, but Ohio isn't anymore unique than other competitive states like Colorado or Virginia or Florida or North Carolina. The Buckeye state ended up in Obama's column in 2008 but is not a necessary part of the president's electoral vote calculus in 2012; not anymore than any other competitive state anyway.

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Oregon Bill to Move Primaries Back to June

There are a couple of bills before the Oregon legislature -- introduced earlier -- concerning the timing of primaries in the Beaver state, but one (SB 615) leaves the presidential primary alone while moving the state and local primaries to September.¹ The other, however, introduced at the behest of the House Interim Committee on Rules, proposes moving all of the primaries -- presidential included -- from the third Tuesday in May to the second Tuesday in June. HB 2429, if passed and signed into law, would place Oregon's presidential primary -- and those for state and local offices as well -- on June 12, the final day in which delegate selection events can be held according to the national parties' rules regarding delegate selection.

Section 254.056 of the Oregon Statutes does not as it is currently written separately mention the various primaries, merely the date on which the primary is to be held. SB 615 amends the code to reflect separate dates for the two sets of primaries, but HB 2429 does not. The latter continues to treat all of the primary elections as one and on one date.

Here's the current law:

254.056 Date and purpose of general election and primary election. (1) The general election shall be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of each even-numbered year. Except as provided in ORS 254.650, at the general election officers of the state and subdivisions of the state, members of Congress and electors of President and Vice President of the United States as are to be elected in that year shall be elected.

(2) The primary election shall be held on the third Tuesday in May of each even-numbered year. At the primary election precinct committeepersons shall be elected and major political party candidates shall be nominated for offices to be filled at the general election held in that year. [1979 c.190 §229; 1979 c.316 §20a; 1987 c.267 §1; 1995 c.712 §1; 1999 c.59 §64; 1999 c.999 §28; 2001 c.965 §12; 2003 c.542 §7]

And here is how HB 2429 amends it:

254.056 is amended to read:   254.056. (1) The general election shall be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of each even-numbered year. Except as provided in ORS 254.650, at the general election officers of the state and subdivisions of the state, members of Congress and electors of President and Vice President of the United States as are to be elected in that year shall be elected.   (2) The primary election shall be held on the   { - third Tuesday in May - }  { +  second Tuesday in June + } of each even-numbered year. At the primary election precinct committeepersons shall be elected and major political party candidates shall be nominated for offices to be filled at the general election held in that year.

No, this isn't, as was the case with Idaho, a big move, but it is another proposed move backward and one that was not necessary to bring Oregon back into compliance with national party rules. Overall, it is a curious move simply because it isn't clear what the motivation -- at least in regard to the presidential primary timing -- is.

¹This bill would place the state and local primaries very close to the back end of the window to hold primaries and remain in compliance with the MOVE act mandate (in order to finish primary elections, print ballots and get them out to military and overseas personnel abroad 45 days prior to the general election date).

UPDATE: HB 2429 is slated for a public hearing on March 9.

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The Links 3/8/11

Charlie Cook asks "next in line" or "no one's in line" for the GOP nomination.

Chris Cillizza has his own take on the "frontrunner-less" GOP field.

Whether a frontrunner emerges may determine whether Alabama is irrelevant in next year's primaries.

Ohio's still concerned about how redistricting might affect the March primary next year.

But that's not new.

Huckabee briefly passed Palin in Google searches last week. I don't know what it says about the metric that Kenya/Portman triggered more searches than Gingrich's "bobbled" announcement last Thursday. Huckabee's jump was the first past Palin since Bobby Jindal in the lead up to and aftermath of his State of the Union response in 2009.

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2012 Presidential Primary Movement: The Week in Review (Feb. 28-March 6)

Last week proved to be a busy one for state legislative action concerning the scheduling of presidential primaries. Legislatures convened, adjourned, introduced legislation, held hearings on bills and passed bills moving or potentially canceling primaries across the country. Here's a recap:

• Pass it on: In Oklahoma, the state Senate passed SB 808 to move the Sooner state's presidential primary back to the first Tuesday in March from the first Tuesday in February. That bill has moved over to the House (where a similar bill has been proposed) for consideration.

In the far northwest of the country, the state House in Washington on Saturday passed a bill to require the two major parties there to utilize the presidential primary to allocate all of their convention delegates as a means of justifying having the primary (and the associated costs) at all in future cycles.

• "Do Pass": The Missouri Senate bill to move the Show-Me state's primary back to March was favorably reported out of the Financial and Government Organization and Elections Committee last week. That clear the way for the bill to be considered on the floor of the Senate.

In Alabama, a bill to move the presidential primary back to June to coincide with other statewide and local primaries was not only introduced during the first week of the legislature's session, but it was referred to and favorably reported from the Constitution, Campaigns and Elections Committee as well.

• Introducing...: Bills were introduced in Missouri (to move the primary to June), Alabama (to move the primary to June), Georgia (to give the secretary of state the power to set the primary date) and Connecticut (to move the primary to March) last week. Of those, the Georgia bill holds the most intrigue because it would set up a system of primary date selection similar to what New Hampshire has had in place since the 1970s. The other bills merely propose moving the respective states' primaries back into compliance with the national party rules.

• Can you hear me now?: Hearings were held in the Missouri House and in Washington DC over the active primary legislation in each. Both are still under consideration in committee at the moment.

• Locked in: Minnesota's state law on caucuses triggered a February 7, 2012 date for the states caucuses next year when the two parties failed to coordinate an alternate date. It remains to be seen whether the national parties deem this problematic, but as it stands, the Minnesota caucuses would fall just one day after the date on which the national parties want the Iowa caucuses to be held.

• As has been mentioned in this space several times, there are currently 18 states with presidential primaries scheduled for February 2012. That would put those 18 states in violation of both parties' delegate selection rules for 2012.

• Of those 18 primary states, 16 of them (Alabama, California, Connecticut, Missouri, New York, Arizona, Georgia, Delaware, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, Utah, Oklahoma and Virginia) have convened or completed their 2011 state legislative sessions.

• Of those 16 states, 10 (Alabama, California, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Connecticut, Georgia, and Virginia) have bills that have been introduced and are active within the state legislature to move their contests' dates back. California, Missouri and New Jersey have bills that would eliminate an early and separate presidential primaries and position those events with the other primaries for state and local offices. That would mean June presidential primaries for both states if those bills pass and are signed into law. In the remaining states, the efforts are to simply shift the states' presidential primaries from dates in violation of the two major parties' rules to the earliest allowed date (the first Tuesday in March). There is also an active bill in Washington, DC to move the districts primary back to June.

• The Utah legislature will adjourn for the year on Thursday (March 10) and has yet to propose any legislation to shift the date on which the presidential primary will be held next year.

• During this next week, the state legislature in Florida will convene bringing the total of non-compliant states currently in legislative session to 16. Those 16 early states in conflict with the national parties' rules will be the ones to watch. But we are to a point in the cycle where there are still state legislatures yet to convene but also states that are wrapping up business and are thus unable to make changes to election laws past that point (see Utah above).

• How would all of this look if all these bills happened to be passed and signed into law? States with active bills to move their primaries are listed twice, once where law has them currently and once in bold and italicized for where active legislation could move them.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE CURRENT CALENDAR, ONLY WHAT IT COULD LOOK LIKE IF CURRENT LEGISLATION IS ENACTED.

Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Minnesota caucuses, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Utah

Saturday, February 11: Louisiana

Tuesday, February 14: Washington (DC), Maryland, Virginia

Saturday, February 18: Nevada Republican caucuses, Nevada Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, February 21: Hawaii Republican caucuses, Wisconsin

Tuesday, February 28: Arizona, Michigan

Tuesday, March 6: Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia

Tuesday, March 13: Mississippi

Tuesday, March 20: Colorado caucuses, Illinois

Tuesday, April 3: Kansas, Maryland

Tuesday, April 24: Pennsylvania

Tuesday, May 1: Tennessee

Tuesday, May 8: Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15: Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon

Tuesday, May 22: Arkansas, Kentucky and Washington

Tuesday, June 5: Alabama, California, Massachusetts, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

Tuesday, June 12: Missouri, Washington, DC

Tuesday, August 7: Kentucky

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Bill to Tie Presidential Primary to Parties' Use Passes Washington State House

The Washington state bill to link the existence and use of a presidential primary in a given cycle to the parties utilizing the contest to allocate all of their delegates to the national conventions passed the state House on Saturday (March 5). HB 1860 would require the Democratic and Republican state parties to break from the tradition of using just a caucus or the caucus in combination with a primary, respectively, as the means of allocating delegates in the presidential nomination races. This bill would eliminate the presidential primary in years in which the parties do not abandon the caucus for the primary.

Bills to temporarily eliminate the primary for the 2012 cycle have been proposed in both chambers of the Washington legislature, but have recently stalled while HB 1860 has gained momentum and passed the House. By a largely party-line vote, the House passed the bill 53-44 with most of the Democratic majority in support of the measure and most of the Republican minority against. The legislation now heads to the state Senate.

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Louisiana Republican Sees Need to Move Presidential Primary Back

Louisiana does not convene its 2011 state legislative session until next month, but already some within the state parties are raising the issue of the Pelican state's 2012 presidential primary date. Scheduled for the second Saturday in February next year, the Louisiana primary is one of nineteen that conflict with both national parties' rules on the timing of delegate selection events. Louisiana, along with any other contests penciled in for any time before March 6, 2012, faces losing at least half their delegates to the national conventions without a change. That problem has prompted one member of the Republican State Central Committee, Mike Bayham, to file a resolution -- within the party -- to call on the legislature to shift the primary back to the first Saturday after the first Tuesday of March. That would be the Saturday after the would-be Super Tuesday if the DNC and RNC have their way.

Of course there is no consensus behind the idea between the two parties in the state much less the within the legislature. Louisiana Republican Party chair, Roger Villere, favors moving the primary back past the first of April to preserve the state's ability to allocate its delegates in a winner-take-all manner. The RNC gives states the option of choosing how to allocated their delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa after that April threshold, but has instituted a new proportionality requirement for all states prior to that point on the calendar. Democrats in the state have to this point remained tight lipped about moving the primary, but under the Democrats' rules, legislators in the state have to make some effort to move the primary back or run the risk of losing more than 50% of the delegation to the Democrats' Charlotte convention (Rule 20.C.7). What remains to be seen, regardless of how the state parties feel about the matter, is how a narrowly divided legislature deals with the issue. Democrats control the state Senate by just two seats while Republicans have a four seat advantage in the state House.

Resolutions for the state parties or not, it will be next month before anything is known about what will happen with the 2012 presidential primary in Louisiana.

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Bill to Hand Power to Set Primary Date Over to Secretary of State Filed in Georgia

A bipartisan coalition of six Georgia representatives has come up with by far the most interesting approach to 2012 presidential primary timing. Rep. Mark Hamilton (R-23rd, Cumming), Rep. John Meadows (R-5th, Calhoun), Majority Whip Edward Lindsey (R-54th, Atlanta), Rep. Mary Oliver (D-83rd, Decatur), Rep. Tyrone Brooks (D-63rd, Atlanta) and Rep. Alisha Morgan (D-39th, Austell) prefiled HB 454 on March 3 and has several wrinkles to it.

First of all, the bill shifts the presidential primary date-setting authority from the state legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that this frees a state of the potential for partisan conflict that often hampers the movement of a primary. Such a move would also remove the issue of a state legislature having to be in session to move the date of a presidential primary around. This is how New Hampshire has been able to move with such ease in protecting its first-in-the-nation status since 1976. There is no partisan conflict and in New Hampshire's case, Secretary of State Bill Gardner can wait until a very late date -- after all the other states have selected dates -- to choose when New Hampshire will go. It would appear that this is the intent in Georgia as well.

The short term impact of this is that Georgia will remain an unknown for a while if this bill is passed and signed into law. There are, however, a few additional guidelines that add to the intrigue of this. The secretary of state wouldn't have unlimited discretion here. He or she would have to make a decision on the date "not later than 60 days preceding the date on which the presidential primary is to be held". Candidates have to have time to file and local elections administrators have to have time to prepare for the primary.

But let's look at this in the context of 2012. Secretary of State Brian Kemp, if given this authority, could wait all the way up to December 1, and like New Hampshire, see where all the other states are going to be positioned on the calendar. Now, 60 days from December 1 is January 30. That is just enough time to see not where New Hampshire is positioned, but where Florida ends up. Oddly -- or not so oddly enough -- Florida is currently positioned on January 31. Kemp can wait it out, see if Florida budges, how the RNC reacts and set the date of the Georgia primary accordingly. If the RNC caves to Florida's insistence on being on January 31, then Kemp could move Georgia up to coincide with its neighbor to the south on January 31. But if the RNC comes down hard on Florida, Kemp could move Georgia's primary back into compliance with national party rules (on March 6, for instance).

What this bill would do is keep Georgia's options open and allow it the most leeway to select an advantageous date that would not necessarily threaten New Hampshire or Iowa or South Carolina, but would potentially help the Peach state to align with Florida in a sub-regional act of defiance.

File this one away.

UPDATE: Jim Galloway at the AJC beat me to the punch by minutes, but adds more.

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