Sunday, March 20, 2011

Nebraska Dems Stick with Caucuses Over Primary but Move from February to April

Nebraska Democrats for the first time in 2008 abandoned the Cornhusker state's May presidential primary as a means of allocating national convention delegates and instead adopted a February caucus. The Nebraska Democratic Party will in 2012 again choose delegates to the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte through a series of caucuses. Instead of February, however, the state Democrats will begin the process with precinct caucuses on April 14.

Thus far Democratic caucus states are using the freedom caucus states have in terms of scheduling their delegate selection events -- no partisan conflicts, no checks and balances between the executive and legislative branches, etc. -- to move to later dates. With the pressure of having to hold an early contest that may come from a contested nomination race, Democrats in some caucus states are opting instead to go later and take bonus delegates in the process. That is becoming clearer as more caucus states' Democrats submit draft delegate selection plans for public comment.

[Hat tip to The Green Papers for the link.]



Hawaii Democrats Zero in on April 7 Precinct Caucuses for 2012

With the release of their draft delegate selection plan this week, Hawaii Democrats, like their brethren in Wyoming, tentatively selected April 7 as the date of the first determining step of their delegate selection process. Those precinct caucuses will kick off a process that will end with the selection of national convention delegates at the Hawaii Democratic convention on May 26, 2012. In 2008, the precinct caucuses in Hawaii took place on February 19. The move, assuming approval from the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee, would bring Hawaii Democrats into compliance with the DNC's delegate selection rules and would bring with it bonus delegates (10% of the delegate total for the April 1-30 period). Again, as was the case with the Wyoming Democratic Party plan, there is no conflict with the national party rules on the timing of the contest. As such, unless there is another violation embedded in the plan, it should meet the committee's approval.


Wyoming Democrats' Draft Delegate Selection Plan Indicates April Caucuses

Though it isn't imminent, the May 2 deadline for state Democratic Parties to have submitted their draft delegate selection plans to the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is approaching (Rule 1.D). Before that can happen, though, said draft plans must be posted for thirty days of public viewing/comment prior to submission (Rule 1.C). What that means is that state parties should begin to tip their hands in terms of when they are considering scheduling their delegate selection events. In primary states, that decision is dependent to some degree on what the state legislature has done to schedule or reschedule those contests. Caucus states, on the other hand, are more of an unknown, but these draft delegate selection plans give a glimpse into the state parties' thinking. As long as the first step of the contest occurs within the window of time in which the two national parties allow contests to be held, the approval process from the national parties should be nothing more than a formality.

That seems to be the case in Wyoming where the Democratic Party there has proposed April 7 county caucuses as the first step in determining national convention delegates. Wyoming Democrats appear, it seems, to be shifting the opening of their caucuses back by a month compared to the 2008 county caucuses in a year in which the Democratic nomination will not be contested. By moving back to April, the party opens the possibility of bonus delegates for holding an event in April or later.

Now, it should be noted that the Republican Party has a different set of delegate selection rules and the state parties in caucus states have a different motivation with a contested nomination on the horizon in 2012. That said, Wyoming Republicans are more of a wild card -- especially considering what happened with the Equality state's Republican caucuses in 2008 -- than their Democratic counterparts. As of yet, however, there is no indication from Wyoming Republicans about when they are considering holding the county caucuses in the state.


Thursday, March 17, 2011

Oklahoma House Passes Second March Primary Bill

The Oklahoma House on Wednesday passed the second of two bills that have originated in the chamber to shift the state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. HB 1615, the companion bill to SB 602 (passed by the Senate last week), passed by a vote of 68Y-27N, a vote with four times as much opposition as the alternate House bill (HB 1614 -- passed Monday by the House). The main difference between the two sets of companion bills is that HB1615/SB 602 contain provisions to not only alter the date of the presidential primary but the primaries for state and local offices as well.

All four bills have passed their houses of origin and are now being considered in the opposite chamber.


The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (3/17/11)

With the Utah legislature adjourning last week without either changing the date on which the Beehive state's presidential primary will be held or appropriating funds specifically for the contest, a change is in order with the 2012 presidential primary calendar. Utah has been shifted into the "No Date" category because while there was talk of Utah Republicans utilizing the late June primary for statewide offices as the means of allocating its delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, no official decision has been made.

A change was also made regarding Nevada's shading on the map. Though the two parties in the Silver state have opted to schedule their caucuses for the party-designated February 18 date, with Iowa Republicans now following suit in accepting the February 6 party-designated date there was a discrepancy between how each was being treated on the map. Again, it is FHQ's position that while Nevada or Iowa or even South Carolina or New Hampshire may select a date now, it is only a tentative date until the states currently scheduled throughout the end of January and February move to comply with national party rules. If that doesn't occur, the four exempt states will select dates ahead of the earliest non-exempt state (now Florida).

Links have also been added for new legislation in Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia and Oregon since the last update on March 1.

[Click to Enlarge]


Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Florida, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of Texas, the proposed movement is backward.] This is clear in most states, but in others -- Maryland and Tennessee -- where multiple timing options are being considered, the most likely date is used. Here that is defined as a bill -- or date change -- with the most institutional support. In both cases, the majority party leadership is sponsoring one change over another (February to March in Tennessee and February to April in Maryland). That option is given more weight on the map.
  3. Finally, Kentucky is unique because the legislation there calls for shifting the primary from May to August. As August is not included in the color coding, white designates that potential move with the May shade of blue. Georgia, too, is unique. The state legislature is considering a bill to shift primary date-setting power from the legislature to the secretary of state. The effect is that the Peach state has a dark blue stripe for its current February primary date and a gray stripe to reflect the fact that a change from that based on the bill in question would put the future 2012 primary date in limbo until December 1 at the latest.
  4. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.


Reading the Calendar:

  1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
  2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 104 days from its 2008 position.
  3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
  4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
  5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.


2012 Presidential Primary Calendar


January 2012

Monday, January 16:

Iowa caucuses1


Tuesday, January 24
:

New Hampshire1


Saturday, January 28:

Nevada caucuses1

South Carolina1


Florida (bills: House/Senate)


February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (-34) (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama (bills: House)

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware

Georgia (bills: House)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate)

New York

Oklahoma (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2)

Tennessee (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3)

Utah


Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana


Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland (bills: House/Senate 1, 2)

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia (bills: House 1, 2/Senate)

Washington, DC (bills: Council)


Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+87) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin


Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona3

Michigan4

South Carolina (based on national party rules)


March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Massachusetts4 (bills: House)

Ohio

Rhode Island

Texas (bills: House)

Vermont


Tuesday, March 13:

Mississippi


Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses5 (bills: House)

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (signed: 3/17/10)


April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House/Senate -- cancel primary)


Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania


May 2012

Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina

West Virginia


Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (signed: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)


Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-104) (bills: House) (signed: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary)


June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico6

South Dakota


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1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 25, 2011.

3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
5 The Colorado Democratic and Republican parties have the option to move their caucuses from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February.
6 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.



Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Missouri Primary to a Week After New Hampshire?

The AP and Missouri News Horizon blogger Tim Sampson are reporting that the Missouri Senate has passed an amendment to SB 282 that would place the Show-Me state's presidential primary one week after New Hampshire's primary.1 The state Senate bill initially called for the presidential primary to be moved from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. But the original intent of the bill has been hijacked from the bill's sponsor and Financial and Government Operations and Elections Committee chairman, Senator Kevin Engler (R-3rd, Farmington), who shepherded the bill through his committee.

There are a few things to note about what is an otherwise very interesting move given the current situation with Florida trying to carve out the fifth position in the primary and caucuses queue. First of all, the vote that took place today was on an amendment offered by Senator Brad Lager (R-12th, Savannah). It was the second amendment on the bill that was offered and adopted by a 16-14 vote. That said, the final bill and all its amendments require a vote by the full state Senate. Second, this complicates what looked like a sure thing move to March in Missouri. Both the Senate and House bills were introduced by the chairs of the committees dealing with elections in both chambers and though both are Republicans in Republican-dominated houses of the legislature, the bills -- at least the one in the Senate -- did not have the full support of a united Republican majority.

If the amended bill with its new, one-week-after-New-Hampshire requirement passes the Senate it sets up a showdown scenario on several levels. Much of that depends on what happens in the House. Assuming the House passes an unamended version of one of the two bills moving the primary to March, then the House and Senate have to in some way reconcile those two once each crosses over to the opposite chamber. Of course, nothing would stop the House from also acting on the amended version of the Senate bill while the March House bill dies in the Senate. Needless to say the legislative process could fall apart at any point at which time the Missouri primary would remain on the first Tuesday in February -- in violation of the national parties rules.

Hovering over all of this is the fact that Missouri Governor Jay Nixon is a Democrat, and the Democratic Delegate Selection Rules for 2012 dictate that all Democratic state-level actors prevent a primary timing violation (Rule 20.C.7). In other words, the threat of a veto looms over this process if a bill comes before the governor that sets the Missouri primary a week behind New Hampshire. The quirk in all of this is that Nixon would have his hands tied either way. Signing the bill would put the primary in violation of the national party rules, but not signing keeps the primary in February and is still a violation of the same rules.

This is a conundrum that may, if legislators realize the road they are going down, may give rise to some momentum behind the bill that seeks to combine the Show-Me state's presidential primary with its state and local primaries in June, a bill that has seemingly stalled in committee since being introduced late last month. But there's a lot to play out in the legislature first before that may happen.

--
1 Tethering a primary to the date of the New Hampshire primary is not new. Wyoming Republicans early in 2007 anchored their caucuses to New Hampshire's then late January date. New Hampshire was later forced to move and so too did Wyoming Republicans, only they moved three days ahead of New Hampshire. Delaware's state law prior to 2003 placed the First state a week after the New Hampshire primary like this Missouri amendment as well. That was altered in 2003 to comply with Democratic Party rules disallowing that because it would have meant a January primary for non-exempt states when February was as early as was allowed.



California Primary Bill Unanimously Passes Committee Hurdle in Assembly

The California Assembly bill to move the Golden state's presidential primary back to June and align it with the state's primaries for state and local offices passed the Committee on Elections and Redistricting on March 15. AB 80 would save the state $90 million by combining the two sets of primaries during the first Tuesday in June.


The bill passed the committee on a 7-0 vote.


Crossover Day Vote Sends Georgia Primary Bill to the State Senate

Wednesday marked the 30th day of the 2011 legislative session in the Georgia General Assembly; the deadline by which legislation has to be passed in one chamber of the legislature in order for the other chamber to consider it (before the 40 day session is adjourned). Among the bills up for the deadline vote -- and it was tough to see it when seemingly everyone following crossover day in Georgia was more interested in the Senate vote to allow the Sunday sale of alcohol1 -- was the House bill to shift the presidential primary date-setting authority from the legislature to the office of the secretary of state. As FHQ has mentioned previously, HB 454, would give the Peach state the flexibility to adapt more easily -- and more quickly -- to changing national party rules regarding the timing of primaries and caucuses allocating presidential delegates. More to the point, it would allow the secretary of state the ability to -- like the secretary of state in New Hampshire -- more easily set the date of the state's primary at a point that is first, competitive, but also maximizes Georgia's influence over the presidential nomination process.

That is a power that is unique to New Hampshire, though similar actions have been taken in Arizona to give the, in the Grand Canyon state's case, governor the ability to set the primary on a "better" date should the date called for by state law -- the fourth Tuesday in February -- fall outside of the window of influence. Georgia, then, is attempting to join a select few states with this ability and the bipartisan effort to accomplish this passed the House by a vote of 153Y-21N. The potential for added flexibility was cited by proponents of the measure while the few opponents brought up the constitutional balance of power between the legislative and executive branches.

One additional note that should be made is that Georgia was in the exact same position four years ago. It was around the same time that the Georgia House passed HB 487 by a similar margin in 2007. That bill was intended to shift the Peach state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in February. The state Senate subsequently passed a different version of the bill that did not pass the House when the altered bill was returned to its house of origin. A last minute amendment to a separate elections bill saved the cause of the earlier presidential primary date and brought it into effect. The moral here is that the legislative process happens. That said, this bill does seem to have bipartisan back -- in terms of its sponsorship -- and we'll have to see how far that takes in the Senate over the final ten legislative days of the session.

Hat tip to Andre Walker at Georgia Politics Unfiltered for passing this news along.

--
1This is an annual rite of spring in the Georgia General Assembly. The Sunday sales issue always comes up and is always voted down. Usually, however, it is defeated in committee. Not in 2011. The bill (SB 10) passed the Senate and now heads to the House.


Colorado Bill to Shift Presidential Caucuses Up Two Weeks

Last week in the Colorado Senate a bill was introduced to move the date on which the state's state and local primaries are held from the last week in August to the last week in June. The bill was designed to bring the Centennial state into compliance with the federal mandates called for in the MOVE act passed by Congress in 2009. Sponsored by Senator Rollie Heath (D-18th, Boulder), the State, Veterans and Military Affairs Committee chair, SB 189 also shifts the state precinct caucuses -- used for presidential delegate allocation -- up from the third Tuesday in March to the first Tuesday in March.

As was discussed earlier on FHQ in the context of the Minnesota caucuses situation that arose in February, it is rare for state law to cover the timing of caucuses. Typically that task is left up to the state parties. However, Colorado and Minnesota are the two most consistent exceptions to that rule.

The Colorado bill was introduced on March 10 and referred to Heath's committee then as well.