Chicken Little and the Iowa Caucuses

It is bothersome that the same stories keep getting rehashed and continually have to be shot down. Several of these revolve around Mitt Romney, Iowa or some combination of the two. Though Mitt Romney has not returned to Iowa (or South Carolina), the stories of the former Massachusetts governor skipping the Hawkeye state have largely and thankfully died down. [FHQ doesn't know whether to attribute that to the reality of Romney's campaign strategy -- less emphasis on Iowa -- having set in with the press or what.] But various sources, now including New Hampshire Republican Fergus Cullen, keep returning to the Iowa-isn't-important well, assuming that it runs deep when the reality is that it is close to dry.

First of all, the fact that the nominal frontrunner is not making regular visits to Iowa certainly gives the impression that the 2012 Republican caucuses in the Hawkeye state are less meaningful. The other candidates, however, aren't behaving as if Iowa is anything other than one of the first states in the presidential nomination process. [I'll focus on candidate visits here, but this concept could also be operationalized as money spent in the state thus far, staff hired and/or money contributed to the campaigns of 2010 candidates running for office in the state(s).] FHQ has looked at the visits data already and there is little to no evidence there that Iowa's role is shrinking.

Does the state have a smaller percentage of candidate visits than in 2008?

Yes.

Is that being driven by Romney staying away from the Hawkeye state to this point?

Yes, partially.

Are the other candidates, prospective or otherwise, following suit?

No, not really.

Can the rest of the shift in the percentage of candidate visits from 2008 to 2012 be explained by regular cycle to cycle variation?

More than likely, yes.

Let's take a look. Democratic candidates in 2004 split their time pretty evenly between Iowa and New Hampshire. Out of 1660 combined candidate visits to both states only 60 visits separated the two (with Iowa having more.).¹ In 2008 the story was different. Obama's increasing viability throughout the invisible primary, coupled with visits by the then-Illinois senator and Edwards' near-permanent presence in the state forced frontrunner Hillary Clinton to have a substantial presence in Iowa as well. Visits and poll position have a way of triggering increased activity from your opponents.

Of course, the point is well taken that these are data for Democrats, and there isn't an equivalent progressive movement within the Iowa Democratic Party that is pushing less "pure" candidates away in the way it has been hypothesized with Romney (and/or other candidates) and Iowa's GOP. Iowa did have a fairly healthy advantage over New Hampshire in terms of the number of visits from Republicans in 2008. No, the discrepancy between Iowa and New Hampshire wasn't as great among Republicans as it was among Democrats, but there were over 200 more visits to Iowa than New Hampshire. But that wasn't the case in 2000, the last competitive Republican nomination race, when most of the Republicans ceded the Hawkeye state to George W. Bush. The focus instead was on New Hampshire which got more attention relative to Iowa. The point here is that there are great number of factors involved in determining how much attention one of these first two states receives and it varies from cycle to cycle.

Is there something to the argument that a rightward shift among the Iowa GOP caucusgoers is forcing anything resembling a revisitation of strategy from the campaigns' perspectives?

Yeah, there's probably something to it, but its impact is being grossly overstated in typically very narrow examinations of the circumstances. And the fact that the nominal frontrunner is the one who isn't showing up -- especially to the level he did in his prior run -- it exacerbates the the perception that Iowa will take a backseat. The take home message is that we shouldn't look at Iowa in 2012 in a vacuum. There is a much broader picture here beyond "Iowa Republicans are lurching to the right and the state is suffering as a result".

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Now, having set up the proper context through which the Iowa attention situation should be viewed, there is some evidence that Iowa is dropping off. It all depends on the window of time (in which visits occur) is used. According to the Politico 2012 Live Candidate Tracker Iowa has had 182 [prospective] candidate visits since the day after the 2008 election -- the point at which the 2012 invisible primary started. Over that same period of time, New Hampshire had 127 visits. That particular time period is going to contain visits that were made on behalf of candidates running for state and congressional office and Iowa's size and number of competitive districts would have to be accounted for as well. Even then, it wasn't as if New Hampshire was not competitive in 2010 in terms of congressional or state legislative races. But for the sake of this examination, let's close that window to include visits since the day after the 2010 elections. Over that period, Iowa had 79 visits to New Hampshire's 82; a near even distribution of total candidate visits. Since the first of the year that gap is only slightly wider: Iowa has had 68 visits and New Hampshire 78.

New Hampshire, then, has had a greater number of recent visits, but the sky is hardly falling on Republicans in Iowa. Again, the composition of the state party may be a contributing factor to the discrepancy, but it is only one of many and would have a less significant impact than the usual cycle to cycle variation that we normally observe. Plus, once Romney sets foot in the state, a lot of these stories will disappear (or be re-spun as "Romney isn't paying as much attention to Iowa this time" stories).

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¹ See Ridout and Rottinghaus (2008)

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Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee Bill Passes Florida House

The controversial Florida elections bill that includes a provision to create a Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee passed the state House this afternoon on a party-line vote. HB 1355 passed 79-37 after Democrats in the minority attempted unsuccessfully to add 40 amendments in an effort to derail the legislative process. While the bill would create the aforementioned committee to choose the date on which the Sunshine state's 2012 primary will be held, it also contains a number of items that gave Democrats pause including stricter registration requirements, deadlines and penalties.

A similar bill -- SB 2086 -- is currently being considered in committee by the Senate, but does not contain the committee-creation provision. The Senate, though will have its turn to consider the House-passed version soon enough.

Again, the proposed committee would have ten members selected by the Speaker of the House, President of the Senate and Governor and would be tasked with choosing a date (between January 3 and March 6) for the Florida presidential primary by sometime before October 1 of this year.

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The Links (4/20/11): Miscellany

Newt's staffing up in Iowa.

Sorry Roy Moore. You're getting the Buddy Roemer treatment (No separate 2012 Candidates post). For the record, as of April 18, the former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice formed an exploratory committee. For president.

Pawlenty's message could connect in South Carolina.

Chris Christie may want to move the New Jersey primary to June, and there may be a few bills that have been introduced in the legislature, but the guy behind the 2007 move to February isn't high on the idea.

Florida may cast a shadow over the 2012 Republican nomination race, but it isn't "just like in 2008."

The Economist has their obligatory primary calendar examination up. [Yes, FHQ is just vain enough to mention that.]

Huntsman ascendant?

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An April Primary in Georgia?

Ink in the form of Governor Nathan Deal's name has yet to hit paper much less dry on the recently passed legislation to hand the date-setting authority for the Peach state's presidential primary to Secretary of State Brian Kemp. But that has not stopped some -- FHQ included -- from speculating on where the Georgia primary will end up on the 2012 presidential primary calendar. That list now includes the current GOP state party chair, Sue Everhart conceding (via the AJC Political Insider blog) "that Georgia is likely to seek an April date."

Conceding? Why?

Well, let's look at the factors involved in the decision-making calculus in the Peach state. First of all, Georgia Democrats will take a back seat in the process. No, the national party likely won't have a competitive nomination race at the presidential level, and that doesn't help. But neither does the fact that the party is in the minority in the state after being swept in every statewide race last year and kept in the minority in the state legislature. Really, so long as Kemp does not select -- assuming the bill is signed into law -- a date prior to the first Tuesday in March, he is not likely to hear even a peep out of Georgia Democrats.

Technically, though, Kemp, a Republican, has the ability to select any date between the last Tuesday in January (the first available Tuesday 60 days following the final date on which the secretary would be able to choose a date, December 1) and the second Tuesday in June. Again, as FHQ pointed out back when the legislation was first proposed, the opening point of that window of time coincides with the date on which the primary in Florida is currently scheduled. If Florida, whether through its state legislature or the proposed bipartisan committee, continues to defy national party rules and maintains that January date, it may become a more attractive location for the Georgia primary in the eyes of Republicans in the state.

It would be attractive save for two reasons. The Georgia delegation to the Republican National Convention in Tampa would be halved and the delegates from that primary would have to be allocated proportionally. Neither of those options is seemingly palatable to the state party's chair nor presumably to others within the party. Traditionally, Georgia has had a winner-take-all allocation of delegates and would go to the convention with a diluted voice of sorts. In practice all the delegates from the Georgia delegation would line up behind the presumptive GOP nominee, but they wouldn't all be Romney men or Palin loyalists or Pawlenty people. In the big picture it isn't a big deal, but to state party folks who have worked hard for a candidate it does.

And yeah, they do hold some sway in the state party; a party that will elect a chair next month at the state convention. That's why one of those candidates, the current chair, Sue Everhart, is conceding that there may be an April primary in Georgia. Of course, she and the party would have to convince Brian Kemp of that first.

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Washington State House Passes Senate Bill to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary

After a Washington state House Ways and Means Committee vote late last week recommending passage, the full chamber today passed the Senate bill to cancel the Evergreen state's 2012 presidential primary. SB 5119, which previously passed the Senate, was passed by a vote of 69-28. About a third of the minority Republican caucus crossed the aisle and voted for the measure while only four Democrats defected, voting against. The bill was proposed by both the governor and the secretary of state and should be signed into law now that the Senate version has passed both houses of the legislature.

The bill would temporarily suspend the primary until after the 2012 election cycle and would save the state an estimated $10 million for fiscal year 2012.

Here's more from David Ammons in Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed's office.

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Senate Version of Tennessee Primary Bill Passes Committee

The Tennessee Senate State and Local Government Committee today unanimously passed SB 599. The bill is the equivalent of the House measure (HB 612) that passed last week. Both bills are seeking to shift the date on which the Volunteer state primary is held from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. After weeks of deferring action on the bill, the committee acted and passed the measure by a 9-0 vote. The measure now moves to the floor of the Senate for consideration there by the full chamber.

The Tennessee legislature like the Oklahoma legislature is Republican-controlled and has similarly shown no willingness to defy national party rules and stick with their current February primary date.

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Washington State Inches Closer to Canceling 2012 Presidential Primary

During its April 15 meeting the Washington state House Ways and Means Committee recommended SB 5119 for passage by the full chamber. The bill previously passed the House on April 6 would temporarily cancel the presidential primary in the state; expiring and thus reestablishing the primary law as currently on the books on January 1, 2013. This bill, like its House counterpart, was jointly introduced by the governor and the secretary of state and will be signed into law if it passed the House.

The Washington legislature cannot be in session past April 24, so this should be the last week before the body adjourns and must have fully considered and passed this and other bills.

Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for relaying the news out of the Evergreen state.

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Whither Mid-Atlantic Primary? Delaware Delegate Selection Plan Indicates as Much. ...sort of.

One Mid-Atlantic primary's loss may be another Mid-Atlantic primary's gain.

A few weeks ago, FHQ cited stories in both the Washington Examiner and from the AP that highlighted the discussions between Democratic officials in Maryland, Washington DC and Delaware concerning coordinated 2012 primaries. Two thirds of the so-called Mid-Atlantic primary are in place as both Maryland and DC are on the verge of officially moving to an April 3 date. Delaware, however, has yet to make any move on the state legislative level. But the Delaware Democratic Party has given the first indication that the plans for a three state primary were perhaps a bit premature.

Instead of an April 3 primary, though, Delaware Democrats, according to their 2012 delegate selection plan, have chosen April 24 for the date on which the First state's presidential primary will be held. Now, a couple of notes are in order. First of all, April 24 is the date of the Pennsylvania primary; a Delaware neighbor. That would create a second April Mid-Atlantic primary, three weeks after the first. Second, no legislation has been introduced in the state legislature to move the primary in Delaware -- to either date. State party Democrats will have the final say in what happens -- adopt the state-funded primary whenever it is scheduled or hold a party-funded primary or caucus on a date of the party's choosing -- but the former will only happen if the Democratic-controlled legislature moves the date to the party's preferred date. Given the partisan overlap, that is likely but not a certainty.

Until the legislature acts, the Delaware primary will remain on February 7 on our 2012 presidential primary calendar. Though the delegate selection plan is a hint at what is going on in the state, it is not indicative of the date-setting decision-making authority there. The legislature in Delaware will wrap up its legislature session in June.

Hat tip to The Green Papers for the news.

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Tennessee House Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

For five consecutive weeks the Tennessee Senate subcommittee of the State and Local Government Committee has deferred action on the bills before it that would move the Volunteer state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in March. And while the on again, off again calendar placement has not been repeated in the state House, the two Republican-sponsored bills to accomplish the same thing in that chamber have languished in committee since being introduced in February.¹ The House, however, can now say that it has passed one of the two bills.

HB 612 passed the state House on April 14 by a bipartisan vote of 91-2. Those two dissenting votes were from two Republicans. The bill now heads to the state Senate for consideration.

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¹ Democratic-sponsored bills to move the presidential primary to May to coincide with municipal elections have gone nowhere in committee.

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Bill Prefiled in Louisiana to Move Presidential Primary to March

On Friday, Louisiana state Representative Nita Hutter (R-104th, St. Bernard) prefiled HB 509 in the state House. The legislation would move the Pelican state's presidential primary from the second (or third) Saturday in February to the first Saturday following the first Tuesday in March. This is the same date the Louisiana Republican Party State Central Committee pinpointed for the contest in a resolution it passed last month. Coming out of that meeting, the consensus among Republicans in the state seemed to place a greater emphasis on following the Republican National Committee's rules for delegate selection and avoiding the penalties (losing half the delegation) associated with a violation of the timing rules.

With both chambers nearly evenly divided between the parties -- Republicans holding a narrow advantage in the House and Democrats likewise in the Senate¹ -- this is not a move that Republicans can necessarily move easily through the legislature and onto the desk of Republican governor, Bobby Jindal. That said, Democrats should technically be motivated to pull the Louisiana primary into compliance with the DNC rules for delegate selection as well. And the proposed date for the primary is non-controversial enough to keep it as early as is allowed by both national parties -- avoiding penalties -- and should provide the state with an early enough position to provide Louisiana primary voters with a voice in the 2012 nomination process. In other words, it should pass barring Florida or Missouri-like shenanigans.

The Louisiana legislature formally convenes on April 25.

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1 Due to party switches in the state Senate since the first of the year, the Louisiana Senate is no longer controlled by Democrats.

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