Michigan Republicans will decide in mid-August how they'll pick their presidential favorite, and may choose to join Florida in holding the earliest 2012 primaries.
The Associated Press on Friday confirmed the contents of a memo sent by state GOP Chairman Robert "Bobby" Schostak that says the Michigan Republican State Committee will vote at its Aug. 13 meeting on what kind of contest to hold and when.
The committee meets Saturday to discuss its options.
One possibility is a first-in-the-nation Jan. 31 primary held with Florida ahead of traditional early states, ignoring a schedule set by the Republican and Democratic national committees. The 2012 nominating process isn't supposed to start until next February, when Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada would hold primaries and caucuses. Other states couldn't hold a primary or caucus before March 6 without being penalized.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Michigan GOP to Decide in August on Timing of 2012 Primary/Caucus
From Kathy Barks Hoffman at the AP:
Good luck with that first in the nation thing. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will go before any other state no matter how early any state outside of that quartet holds a contest. That isn't up for debate.
That said, this is noteworthy. Given the effort in Michigan in 2007 to move the Wolverine state's 2008 presidential primary to a non-compliant date and the fact that a bill has already been introduced in the Michigan House to move the 2012 presidential primary to the last week in January, Michigan is always good for mixing it up. But a few notes should be made here. First of all the caucus option is still apparently on the table. That's the "how" of the how and when speculation from the AP. That makes sense.
What doesn't is that the state party appears to be superseding the Michigan legislature in terms the primary option. Yes, the party has the final say on how its delegates are allocated, but that say is typically either "the timing of the state-funded primary is fine, we'll go with that" or "the primary is too early/late, we'll have to hold a caucus". That is not the case here. Of course, the Michigan GOP has the advantage of a Republican-controlled state legislature (and a Republican governor), so if the party opts for the primary, the state legislature -- one with a year-round session -- can and probably will accommodate them. After all, it was August 2007 when the Michigan-in-January discussion began ahead of the 2008 presidential primary cycle.
What is interesting here is the idea of Michigan and Florida going on the same date. Will Florida be warm to that idea? There is no telling. Yet, this likely sets off a game of brinksmanship if Florida wants a spot to itself. The proposed Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee in Florida has until October 1 to choose a primary date (assuming HB 1355 is signed into law, creating the committee), and if the Michigan GOP signals the desire for an earlier date in August, it will likely delay the PPPDSC's decision on the Florida primary date. Even then, with the flexibility of a year-round legislative cycle, the Michigan legislature could technically wait Florida out and opt to go concurrent with or earlier than the primary in the Sunshine state.
Notice also that there has been no mention of the first four primary/caucus states for a while. If Florida and Michigan battle it out to the earliest date, that only pushes Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada earlier. And there's always Arizona. Already locked into at least February 28, 2012, Governor Jan Brewer could hypothetically throw the Grand Canyon state into the Florida/Michigan mix under the rationale that "if we're already in violation of the national party rules, we may as well go as early as we want".
No, that scenario wouldn't sit well with the national parties, particularly the RNC. I don't know that they envisioned this type of challenge to their new delegate selection rules when they crafted them.
...but they should have.
Hat tip to Saul Anuzis for sharing this news via Twitter.
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Governor Deal Signs Presidential Primary Date Setting Power Over to Georgia Secretary of State
On Friday, May 13, Governor Nathan Deal (R) signed HB 454 into law. The bill transfers the authority for setting the date of the Georgia presidential primary from the General Assembly to the secretary of state. The Peach state's current secretary of state, Brian Kemp, will have until December 1 (at the latest) to choose the date on which Georgia will hold its presidential primary. Though that December deadline and the 60 days required to be within the point of selecting a date and holding the contest would allow for a primary as early as the last Tuesday in January, early signals out of the Republican Party of Georgia indicate a likely April primary. That, however, may depend on the chair Georgia Republicans select this weekend at their annual state convention.
Part of the reason for the higher likelihood of an April primary hinges on Georgia Republicans traditionally holding winner-take-all primaries; something the new Republican delegate selection rules do not allow before April. Presumably, the state party would have a chance to alter the winner-take-all rules to avoid that problem (...if an earlier primary without penalties is desired).1 It is not clear whether Kemp, a Republican, would follow the suggestions of the state party, but it is likely given the fact that the primary is a means of the party allocating its delegates to the national convention.
One final note should probably be made as the path of this legislation has reached its completion. By ceding the power to the secretary of state, the Georgia General Assembly has granted the state more flexibility -- on par with New Hampshire and similar though not exactly like what is happening in Florida -- to select a presidential primary date that will put the state in a position on the calendar to influence the nomination. The short legislative session that Georgia typically holds so early in the year has continually hampered the states ability to be as free as some other states in selecting a time for a primary.
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This move on Georgia's part moves the Peach state out of February and now has Georgia designated as "No Date" for our purposes here at FHQ until Secretary Kemp selects a date for the presidential primary.
Follow this link for a look back at the legislative process behind this bill and other presidential primary news in Georgia.
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1 Texas has had the same problem but has no recourse between now and next year's primary due to the fact that the Republican Party of Texas has already held its 2011 state convention and has no means of changing its winner-take-all requirement.
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Missouri House Passes Conference Committee Report, Moving Presidential Primary to March
On the final day of the state legislative session, the Missouri House took up and passed the conference committee substitute to SB 282. After a bit of a rollercoaster ride, the final version of the bill includes a provision to move the presidential primary in the Show Me state back to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. The original version of the bill contained the same provision, but was later amended on the floor of the Senate to anchor the primary to New Hampshire (placing the Missouri contest a week after the first in the nation primary).
The final version has now been approved by both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly and moves on the Governor Jay Nixon for his consideration. If signed, Missouri would join Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia as states to shift from February primary dates to primaries on March 6. That result is likely because the move would bring Missouri into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.
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Kansas House Passes Conference Committee Report to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary
The Kansas House on Thursday, May 12 followed the state Senate's lead from earlier in the day and passed the conference committee report for HB 2080. Both chambers have now agreed to the same version of a broader elections bill that, among other things, cancels the Sunflower state's presidential primary for 2012.
The legislation now heads to Governor Sam Brownback's desk for his consideration. As FHQ mentioned yesterday, Kansas' history of canceling presidential primaries makes this bill becoming law likely. Kansas would become the second state to cancel its presidential primary; joining Washington. There are no other states at this time considering that option.
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Thursday, May 12, 2011
Gregoire's Signature Cancels 2012 Washington Presidential Primary
Governor Christine Gregoire in a signing session this afternoon signed SB 5119 into law, canceling the 2012 Washington presidential primary. [It was the first to be signed of twenty-nine bills on the agenda.] Washington voters have had the presidential primary option since 1992, but neither state party has ever completely adopted it as the preferred method of allocating national convention delegates. In 2008, for example, Democrats, traditionally averse to primaries, allocated all of their delegates based on the results of the party's caucuses while the primary election ten days later was only advisory. Washington Republicans, meanwhile, allocated 51% of their delegates based on the primary results and the remaining 49% from the caucuses. The fact, then, that the state government was open to the idea of temporarily suspending the presidential primary for the 2012 cycle -- as a means of saving $10 million in elections costs -- is understandable, though, not universally accepted.
Washington, though, becomes the first state of the 2012 cycle to cancel its presidential primary. Democrats in the state have already chosen a Sunday, April 15 date for its caucuses and the focus now turns to the Republican Party in the Evergreen state to select a date for its delegate selection event.
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Kansas Senate Passes Conference Committee Report to Cancel 2012 Presidential Primary
The Kansas Senate on Thursday passed the conference committee-negotiated report to HB 2080. By a vote of 35-1, senators supported the broad elections bill that includes a provision -- added to the House original by the Senate -- to postpone the 2012 presidential primary election and replace references in the Kansas statutes to it with references to 2016 instead. The move would save the state around $2 million, but would also continue a trend of holding party-run caucuses over state-funded primaries. The likely move is not surprising since Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992.
A separate Senate bill (SB 128) with the sole intent of canceling the presidential primary has already passed the Senate and has been stuck in the House since February. HB 2080, which fulfills that same end among other matters, now goes to the House for consideration. What this bill has that SB 128 did not necessarily have is support from the House members on the conference committee. Regardless, it should pass the House.
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A Follow Up on Florida Dems and 2012 Presidential Primary/Caucus Delegate Allocation
FHQ got a nice clarification email from Florida Democratic Party spokesperson, Eric Jotkoff, this morning concerning the discrepancy between how he was quoted in the Tampa Tribune and what the party's draft delegate selection plan proposes in terms of the timing of the 2012 primary or caucus. My first thought yesterday upon reading the quote about the possibility of a June caucus (in the event the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee (PPPDSC) chooses a date that is not compliant with both national parties' sets of delegate selection rules) was that that likely referred to the state party convention. That intuition was confirmed by Mr. Jotkoff's email of clarification. As he said:Just to clarify, then, Florida Democrats will hold county caucuses between April 14 and May 5, 2012 to begin allocating delegates to the national convention in Charlotte, a process that will be finalized at the state convention in June. And again, this assumes that the PPPDSC selects a date for the presidential primary that is in violation of the national party rules (ie: before March 6, 2012).
“Democrats from across Florida would be invited to attend county caucuses held in April and May, which will be used to allocate the delegates appropriately and to elect Delegates to a State Convention in June where the National Convention Delegates will be selected."
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As a side note, I hate it when state parties schedule caucuses like this (though it is certainly their right to determine the manner in which the party allocates delegates). I say that from a research standpoint. When delegate selection events occur on more than one day (ie: caucuses over the period of a weekend or several weeks), it is difficult to measure when that process is taking place. FHQ's rule of thumb has always been to use the earliest date in our data as opposed to, say, the median date. If the point of movement forward/earlier on the calendar is done under the premise that it gains more candidate/press attention, then the earliest point at which any delegate allocation occurs is the marginally better way of capturing that. That said, there are a few caveats to be made. First of all, caucuses receive less attention anyway (see Gurian 1986, 1990, 1993), and stretching that process out dilutes that impact further. Secondly, we are, after all, talking about an uncontested, in-party nomination process here. It isn't terribly consequential when Florida holds its caucuses (no offense intended). Obama will be the Democratic nominee regardless. My research has always focused on contests nominations anyway. Finally, what kind of a bonus will this net Florida Democrats? I suspect the DNC will treat the Florida caucuses as if they all occurred on April 14 and give Sunshine state Democrats a 10% bonus on their delegate total as opposed to the 15% bump that comes with a May or later date.
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Florida Democrats Float Conditional Presidential Primary/Caucus Schedule
NOTE: Please see the follow up post for a clarification on the timing of the county caucuses and state convention for Florida Democrats in 2012.
Florida Democrats appear to be leaning toward the latter:
"Should the Republicans break the rules, we will not be participating in the primary," said state Democratic Party spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "Democrats from across Florida would be invited to attend county caucuses held in June which will be used to allocate the delegates appropriately."That statement, however, differed from the press release announcing the opening of the public comment period for the delegate selection plan.
Should the Presidential Preference Primary be held on or after March 6th, in compliance with the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee rules, the results of this election will be used to apportion Delegates similar to the process used by Florida Democrats in past Presidential Primaries.
Between April 14th and May 5th of 2012, each County Democratic Party will host a caucus to elect Delegates to a State Convention.
That discrepancy is likely not a big deal. First of all, the Democratic nomination is uncontested which makes the delegate allocation process less consequential -- at least in terms of determining the nominee. Second, the state party will not officially make a decision until after both the public comment period has concluded and then after the yet-to-be-approved committee schedules the presidential primary. If that date is on March 6, the Democrats will allocate delegates then. If the primary is earlier, Democrats will hold county caucuses between April 14 and June.
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1 Given that Democrats in the Florida legislature proposed a remedy to the primary situation -- legislation to move the primary to March was introduced in both chambers -- the party could petition the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee for a waiver to avoid sanctions. However, it is unclear whether the committee would make an exception in this case. That rule has never been tested in the rogue state era. Recall Democrats in the Florida legislature supported the January primary move in 2007 and later paid the price for it.
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Bill to Cancel 2012 Washington Primary to be Signed May 12
SB 5119, the bill to cancel the 2012 presidential primary in Washington state, is on the list of bills to be signed by Governor Christine Gregoire (D) on Thursday, May 12. The legislation was originally introduced at the request of the governor and Secretary of State Sam Reed (R) as a means of saving the state $10 million in elections expenses and would only suspend the primary for the 2012 cycle. Those provisions are set to expire on January 1, 2013.
Several states have discussed consolidated presidential and state/local primaries as a means of saving money on future budgets, but Washington would become the first state during the 2012 cycle to cancel its primary to reach those savings. Kansas is also attempting to cancel its primary.
For a look back at the process of how the bill got here (and other 2012 state caucus news) click on the "Washington" tag in the box below the post.
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Missouri Senate Adopts Conference Committee Substitute, Approves March Presidential Primary
On Tuesday night the Missouri Senate adopted the conference committee report for SB 282 and then passed the conference committee substitute. The AP is reporting that this new version of the legislation includes a provision for a March presidential primary, something the Senate had rejected previously. That action by the upper chamber means that both houses have now passed a version of the bill that would move the presidential primary back a month. However, the conference committee substitute has not been posted online for this to be confirmed. Also, assuming that the conference committee substitute differs from the House-passed House committee substitute, the bill would need to go back to the lower chamber for final consideration and a vote there. Though there was a conflict between the two chambers regarding the timing of the presidential primary -- at least in terms of the earlier versions that passed -- the main sticking point in the conference committee negotiations was, according to the AP account above, the inclusion of requirement for presidential nominees to submit "proof of status as a natural born citizen of the United States". The House committee substitute added that to the Senate-passed version. That portion was removed in conference.
The bill now presumably heads back to the House, though, the current status still reads "in conference" for today. That said, assuming the House signs off on the newly amended version of the legislation, the proposed move of the presidential primary to March would head off to Governor Jay Nixon's (D) desk for his signature.
NOTE: FHQ will post a link to the Conference Committee Substitute to SB 282 when and if it is posted online.
Thanks to Richard Winger at Ballot Access News for passing along the news of the bill's progress.
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