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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Suggestions Needed: Who Should Replace Mike Huckabee on the Candidate Emergence Tracker?
Now that Mike Huckabee is out of the race for the 2012 Republican nomination, there is an open slot on the FHQ 2012 GOP Candidate Emergence Tracker. I'm leaning toward Mitch Daniels, but the comments section is open to your suggestions.
Louisiana House Committee Favorably Reports Bill to Move Presidential Primary to March
The Louisiana House and Governmental Affairs Committee met this morning and unanimously (12-0) passed HB 509, the bill that would shift the Pelican state's presidential primary back from the second (or third) Saturday in February to the first Saturday after the first Tuesday in March. HB 509 was the first bill considered, and the discussion of the legislation was non-controversial; lasting only about five minutes. One of the bill's co-sponsors, Representative Alan Seabaugh (R-5th, Shreveport), and Louisiana Republican State Central Committee member, Mike Bayham, spoke on behalf of the bill. Each made the case before the committee that the move to February in 2007 was made to make Louisiana a relevant player in the 2008 presidential nomination process. Furthermore, both pointed out that both Louisiana Democrats and Republicans would be penalized1 by their respective national parties if the state's primary was not moved into compliance (on or after the the first Tuesday in March) with the national parties' rules for delegate selection event timing.
The bill now moves on to the floor of the House for full consideration there.
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As an aside, John Maginnis, founder of LaPolitics.com, wrote in a column about the presidential primary in Louisiana this morning that Republicans would forego the presidential primary in favor of a caucus if the state legislature did not pass a law changing the date of the primary (citing the state party chair, Roger Villere). The premise of the column is simple enough: Louisiana Democrats, in a year when their nomination won't be contested, are willing to offer up the presidential primary (and the $6 million it would cost) as a cut in spending that Republican legislators and Governor Jindal -- parties interested in cuts -- should consider. That is obviously not part of HB 509, but will likely be a part of the discussion as the bill continues its route through the legislature.
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1 Seabaugh and Bayham, both Republicans, correctly identified the Republican penalty for violation (50% of a state's delegation) but overstated the Democratic penalties, seemingly falling back on the 2008 Florida/Michigan precedent. Both went on record as saying the Democrats would strip a non-compliant Louisiana Democratic delegation of its entire slate if the state failed to move. That is wrong (see Rule 20.C.1.a). That argument might work better in the DemocraticRepublican-controlled state Senate if the bill crosses over into the upper chamber. [Due to party switches in the state Senate since the first of the year, the Louisiana Senate is no longer controlled by Democrats.]
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Missing the Point: A Follow Up on the Bill to Move the North Carolina Primary to March
As FHQ mentioned earlier today, the North Carolina Senate Judiciary (I) Committee considered S 440 at one of its bi-weekly meetings this morning. Again, this is the bill that would create a separate presidential primary in the Tarheel state and schedule it for the first Tuesday in March. Some of the information that came out of the meeting was predictable while the other parts of the discussion indicated a fundamental misunderstanding of the mechanics behind the formation of the current presidential primary calendar.
First of all, cost came up. According to the State Board of Elections executive director, Gary Bartlett, the price tag a separate presidential primary election would be $5 million, with counties shouldering most of the load.
And the bill's sponsor, Senator Andrew Brock (R-34th, Davie and Rowan), made a statement as well:
“Our issues haven’t been made relevant,” Brock told a Senate Judiciary Committee looking into the bill on Tuesday.
“The campaign is actually already happening here,” Brock said, referring to advertising that goes on in markets near the South Carolina border for that state’s earlier February primary. “But we just don’t have the impact as far as having our voice heard as North Carolinians.”
True, but that's where the train ran off the tracks.
On moving up earlier than the first Tuesday in March (see audio clip): "And the one reason it's in March is 'cause if we move up in to February all the other states will move up."1
It is that idea coupled with the notion above of making North Carolina issues relevant in the presidential campaign that completely misses the mark. First, if North Carolina were to move its primary up, ideally the primary would fall on a date on which no other states (or very few other states) were also scheduled. That maximizes your state's potential influence and the amount of time candidates in a competitive race spend there. That's what happened in both of the examples of North Carolina's past presidential primary relevance that were cited. In 1976, North Carolina had March 23 all to itself, among the earliest primaries in that cycle. The contest proved vital to keeping Ronald Reagan's campaign for the Republican nomination alive. And in 2008, the competitive Democratic nomination between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton rolled into North Carolina in early May and the Tarheel state only had one other state to compete with, Indiana.
But this legislation proposes moving North Carolina to a date that was already occupied by five states and could see that total double in the very near future if Alabama and Missouri pass or sign legislation, respectively to move their February contests back to March 6. That's not a recipe that will yield a 1976 or a 2008 for North Carolina. No, with that many contests, that will end up recreating the scenario North Carolina saw the last time it moved its presidential primary up to an earlier date, 1988. That first Southern Super Tuesday was so effective that North Carolina immediately scrapped the separate March primary and has been scheduled in May, concurrent with the primaries for state and local offices ever since (1992-2008).
The only other news item that emerged from this committee hearing was that Democratic senator, Josh Stein, mentioned -- as did others -- that he wouldn't sign off on any move like this (moving to March) unless it meant that all the primaries moved up, saving the aforementioned $5 million. There was, then, enough evidence today that there is a moderate level of support for the idea and if the bill is amended so that all the primaries move up, it could happen. But North Carolina won't get the bang for its buck or even the attention they want from this move if state legislators merely join the logjam on March 6. Granted it won't be a February 5, 2008 logjam, but it will be a logjam nonetheless. North Carolina, looking like a swing state for the 2012 general election and among the bigger states scheduled for that date (assuming a move), would be able to gain more attention perhaps, but not as much as if they had a date to themselves. And that's something that is far less than guaranteed at the front end of the calendar.
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1 Other states are just as similarly constrained as North Carolina is. Legislative sessions across the country are drawing to a close as summer approaches and the ability to propose, much less pass, legislation is shrinking as well.
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Amendments to Connecticut Presidential Primary Bill Would Move It Back to April
Late last week Connecticut lawmakers in the state House proposed two amendments to the presidential primary bill before the Nutmeg state's legislature. In the original version, HB 6532, called for moving the presidential primary back into compliance with national party rules by shifting it from February to the first Tuesday in March. The bill has been gathering dust for a month since it was favorably reported from committee. Now, however, a bipartisan group of state representatives (Russell Morin (D-28th, Wethersfield), Tony Hwang (R-134th, Fairfield), Joe Aresimowicz (D-30th, Berlin) and Melissa Olson (D-46th, Norwich)), have added an amendment to move the primary further back, to the last week in April.
That April 24th date is the date currently occupied by the Pennsylvania primary and being targeted by Democrats in Delaware. Yes, that is a date that is potentially appealing to the Democratic majority in the Connecticut legislature. Though the move further back on the 2012 primary calendar would bring the state back into compliance with the national parties' rules and grant the state party additional delegates and clout at the Democratic convention in Charlotte, it will not save the state any money. The move would not consolidate the presidential primary with the primaries for state and local offices.
And while it is also curious on its face that a Republican representative has signed onto this amendment in a year with only the Republican nomination at stake, the move would actually benefit Connecticut Republicans on at least one level. Yes, an undecided nomination race could last into late April, making Connecticut consequential and/or decisive, but the move would also allow the Connecticut Republican Party to maintain its tradition of allocating delegates on a winner-take-all basis, something the Republican delegate selection rules prevent prior to April 1.1
The Connecticut legislature will remain in session until June 8.
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1 Of course, it is debatable whether those new rules are as stringent as they are being interpreted on the state level. Outside of a few prospective rogues (Arizona, Florida and Michigan), most states are heeding the new rules changes; often citing fear of national party penalties.
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North Carolina Senate Committee Meeting Today to Discuss Bill Moving Presidential Primary to March
This morning the North Carolina Senate Judiciary (I) Committee is holding a meeting, and on the docket is the bill to shift the Tarheel state's presidential primary up to the first Tuesday in March. S 440 would create a separate presidential primary election, splitting it from the primaries for state and local offices on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The added costs associated with that new election will work against this bill passing in a, like many others, cash-strapped state. That said, this same bill has been proposed repeatedly over the last few sessions under Democratic control to no avail. Now that the Republican-sponsored bill faces a Republican-controlled General Assembly, the story may be slightly different.
A move to March 6 would put North Carolina on the same date as neighbors, Tennessee and Virginia, and a host of other southern/border states that have moved or are close to moving (Alabama, Missouri and Oklahoma).
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Texas House Committee Report with April Presidential Primary Provision is Posted
After having passed the House Defense and Veterans' Affairs Committee over a week ago, the House Committee Report for SB 100 has now been filed with the committee coordinator and distributed/posted on the Texas legislative website. That version, which includes a new provision -- different from what the state Senate passed -- to move the Lone Star state's presidential primary (and those for other statewide offices as well) back to the first Tuesday in April, now moves to the floor for consideration before the full state House.
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Hawaii GOP Moves Caucuses to March 13
On Saturday, May 14, Hawaii Republicans at their 2011 state convention adopted a series of rules changes. One of those changes was to shift the previously-moved (to February from May) caucuses back to the second Tuesday in March. The primary motivation for the move was to bring the state party's delegate selection process into compliance with the national party rule prohibiting primaries and caucuses -- other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from being held earlier than the first Tuesday in March. As was mentioned over the weekend prior to the convention adopting the rules change, this date putsHawaii Republicans on the same day as Mississippi and Utah Democrats and a week after the earliest allowed calendar position (where most Republican-controlled states are clustering).
[See more on the move at Hawaii Free Press.]
[Click to Enlarge]
Hawaii Democrats indicated earlier in April in the draft of their 2012 delegate selection plan that they plan to hold caucuses on April 7.
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Saturday, May 14, 2011
The 2012 Candidates: Huck's out & Other Housekeeping
Let's belatedly update this list now that there have been a couple of noteworthy noes (Haley Barbour and Mike Huckabee), and just this past week a couple of formal yeses (Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul). Bad for southern governors, good for southern congressmen, apparently. Plus, Gary Johnson has jumped in since the last update as well.
With Huckabee out, Iowa has gotten more interesting and the race to be the not-Romney has lost another big name.
Haley Barbour (4/25/11)Jim DeMint (3/24/11)Mike Huckabee (5/14/11)George Pataki (4/20/11)Mike Pence (1/27/11)John Thune (2/22/11)
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Democrats:
Barack Obama (announced: 4/4/11)
Republicans:
Michelle Bachmann
John Bolton
Jeb Bush1
Herman Cain (exploratory: 1/12/11)
Chris Christie1
Mitch Daniels
Rudy Giuliani
Jon Huntsman
Bobby Jindal1
Gary Johnson (candidacy: 4/21/11)
Sarah Palin
Tim Pawlenty (exploratory: 3/21/11)
Rick Perry1
Buddy Roemer (exploratory: 3/3/11)
Mitt Romney (exploratory: 4/11/11)
Rick Santorum (exploratory 4/13/11)
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1 Christie and Bush (and to a lesser degree Perry and Jindal) continue to be listed as "undecided", despite their rather constant stream of noes, simply because they continue to be asked. Admittedly time is running out and the noes will become much more definitive relatively soon.
Thanks to Mystery Politico for the Pataki news. FHQ missed it entirely.
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Moving Caucuses to March on the Rules Changes Agenda at Hawaii GOP Convention
The Republican Party of Hawaii is holding its annual state convention this weekend and on the agenda is a rules change regarding the selection of delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa next year. Previously, the party had opted to abandon the May state convention as the primary means of allocating delegates in favor of earlier precinct caucuses. When that decision was made back in 2009, the party had chosen the third Tuesday in February -- to coincide with Hawaii Democrats' 2008 caucus date -- for those caucuses. In the time since, however, the Republican delegate selection rules for 2012 have made that date a violation, and now the state party's convention agenda has a move to March as part of the proceedings.
According to the second paragraph of Part D (Delegates to the National Republican Convention), Section 214 (Election):
Hawaii Republican caucuses shall be held on the second Tuesday in March of each Presidential Election Year.
Currently, only Mississippi and Utah's Democratic caucuses are scheduled on the date a week after the proposed Super Tuesday (earliest possible date to hold contests according to the national party rules, and when the largest group of states typically clusters) on March 6.
The Hawaii Republican Party becomes the first party in a traditional Republican caucus state to make any overt move toward scheduling its 2012 delegate selection event. Republican state parties are not faced with the same deadline to submit delegate selection plan drafts to the national party as is the case on the Democratic side. That May 2 deadline is what has provided FHQ with the bulk of the Democratic caucus dates for 2012. Absent that deadline on the Republican side, state parties have been slower to act. But Hawaii has likely become the first to act.
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A Follow Up on the April Presidential Primary in Texas: Signals from the Republican Party of Texas
Though news of the Texas House Defense and Veterans' Affairs Committee having unanimously passed SB 100 has been out for over a week, little in the way of confirmation that that committee version included a provision for an April presidential primary has emerged. Yes, some news outlets reported it, yet there was no new version -- one that includes the April primary amendment -- posted on the Texas legislature website. Unfortunately, that is still the case, but now there is a slightly more official source confirming the April primary provision in the bill. The Republican Party of Texas has confirmed it by communicating the change to its members. From the RPT press release:
As has been mentioned in the last two Chairman's Updates for March and April, the RPT has been closely following the progress of SB 100, specifically as it applies to the date of the Texas Primary Election. To give some background - the federal MOVE Act has been crafted to give our overseas military a greater amount of time to receive and cast their vote by mail. For our state to comply with the MOVE Act, there are changes mandated to the election calendar that lengthen the period of time between filing for office and election day. In the case of Texas, our best solution is to move the primary date back into April with a runoff date in June. In addition to changes mandated by the MOVE Act, the Republican National Committee has passed rules which penalize states which hold their primary elections before April and do not apportion their delegates in direct proportion to the popular vote. Texas is such a state. Thus, should Texas keep its primary date on the first Tuesday in March, those rules would potentially take away half of the Texas delegation strength to the Republican National Convention in 2012.
As FHQ has previously noted, the RPT is very wary of the penalties associated with the mandates in both the MOVE act and the RNC delegate selection rules. The party cannot change its winner-take-all method of delegate allocation outside of a state convention and the party values following the rules over taking the sanctions in order to preserve an earlier and more influential primary date.
Texas is the rare exception in this Republican-only nomination cycle of a Republican-controlled state moving back beyond March 6. A real dichotomy has emerged between Republican and Democratic-controlled states in terms of their primary movement. Forced to change primary dates in order to comply with the timing aspect of the national parties' delegate selection rules, Democratic-controlled states -- with nothing on the line -- have opted to shift back to April or later dates in order to maximize their presence at the Democratic Convention in Charlotte (see Maryland, DC, and the Democratic caucus states). Republican-controlled states, on the other hand, have chosen to move back, but to move back only as far as the earliest date that the parties will allow (see Oklahoma, Tennessee). States where the Republicans control some part of the state government, and thus have some form of veto power have also prevented moves back beyond March 6 (see Virginia and most likely Missouri and Alabama). New Jersey and Texas are the exceptions thus far. Texas, owing to the rules, has to move back or change other, more complicated matters like the resign-to-run rule as well as the filing deadlines attendant to that (Georgia may fit that category as well.). New Jersey, meanwhile, looks destined to move simply because Governor Christie (R) is seemingly in agreement with the Democratic-controlled legislature on consolidating the presidential primary with the primaries for state and local offices in June.
As state legislatures finish up their business for 2011 over the next few months, that will be the pattern to watch. There is an additional group to add to the mix as well: rogue states. Florida, Michigan and Arizona are increasingly likely to defy the RNC rules in timing their delegate selection events. And no, this group does not include states like New York, Delaware and Wisconsin, which have done nothing as of yet to change the dates of their respective delegate selection events.
A hat tip to Tony Roza at The Green Papers for passing the news of the RPT's press release on to FHQ.
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