Wednesday, June 22, 2011

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (6/22/11)

Alabama's new presidential primary date means an update of the 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar is in order:


[Click to Enlarge]


Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Iowa, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in January than South Dakota is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.

  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2012. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the most likely month to which the primary could be moved. [With the exception of North Carolina, the proposed movement is backward.]
  3. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are shaded on the map according to the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. Iowa Republicans and Nevada Republicans and Democrats have decided to accept the party-designated dates, but FHQ operates under the assumption that both will move to a point ahead of the earliest exempt state should one or more move or maintain a February or earlier date.
  4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event.


Reading the Calendar:

  1. Caucus states are italicized while primary states are not. Several caucus states are missing from the list because they have not formalized the date on which their contests will be held in 2012. Colorado appears because the caucuses dates there are set by the state, whereas a state like Alaska has caucuses run by the state parties and as such do not have their dates codified in state law.
  2. States that have changed dates appear twice (or more) on the calendar; once by the old date and once by the new date. The old date will be struck through while the new date will be color-coded with the amount of movement (in days) in parentheses. States in green are states that have moved to earlier dates on the calendar and states in red are those that have moved to later dates. Arkansas, for example, has moved its 2012 primary and moved it back 105 days from its 2008 position.
  3. The date of any primary or caucus moves that have taken place -- whether through gubernatorial signature or state party move -- also appear in parentheses following the state's/party's new entry on the calendar.
  4. States with active legislation have links to those bills included with their entries on the calendar. If there are multiple bills they are divided by chamber and/or numbered accordingly.
  5. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina appear twice. The earlier entry corresponds with the latest possible date these states would have if Florida opts not to move their primary into compliance with the national party rules. The second, later entry for each of the non-exempt states reflects the position the national parties would prefer the earliest states to hold their delegate selection events.


2012 Presidential Primary Calendar


December 2011

Monday, December 5:

Iowa caucuses1


Tuesday, December 13:

New Hampshire1


Saturday, December 17:

Nevada caucuses1

South Carolina1


Florida (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved to no date: 5/19/11)


February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa caucuses (moved: 2/8/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama

Arkansas

California (bills: Assembly)

Connecticut (bills: House)

Delaware (bills: Senate)

Georgia (bills: House) (moved to no date: 5/13/11)

Illinois

Minnesota caucuses (+28) (bills: House/Senate) (moved: 3/1/11)

Missouri (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate)

Montana Republican caucuses

New Jersey (bills: Assembly 1, 2/Senate 1, 2)

New York (bills: Assembly/Senate)

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah


Saturday, February 11:

Louisiana (bills: House)


Tuesday, February 14:

Maryland

New Hampshire (based on national party rules)

Virginia

Washington, DC


Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Republican caucuses (-28) (moved: 12/16/10) (based on national party rules)

Nevada Democratic caucuses2 (-28) (moved: 2/24/11) (based on national party rules)


Tuesday, February 21:

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+88) (moved: 5/16/09)

Wisconsin (bills: Assembly, Senate)


Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona3

Michigan4 (bills: House)

South Carolina (based on national party rules)


March 2012

Tuesday, March 6:

Colorado caucuses (+14) (bills: House) (moved: 5/27/11)

Massachusetts4 (bills: House)

Ohio (bills: House)

Oklahoma (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/3/11)

Rhode Island (bills: House/Senate)

Tennessee (-28) (bills: House 1, 2, 3/Senate 1, 2, 3) (moved: 5/9/11)

Texas (bills: House/Senate)

Vermont

Virginia (-21) (bills: House 1, 2/Senate) (moved: 3/25/11)


Sunday, March 11:

Maine Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/27/11)


Tuesday, March 13:

Alabama (-35) (bills: House 1, 2) (moved: 6/9/11)

Hawaii Republican caucuses (+67 and -21) (moved: 5/14/11)

Mississippi

Utah Democratic caucuses (-35) (moved: 3/25/11)


Tuesday, March 20:

Colorado caucuses

Illinois (-42) (bills: Senate) (moved: 3/17/10)


April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Kansas (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/25/11)

Maryland (-49) (bills: House/Senate 1, 2) (moved: 5/10/11)

Washington, DC (-49) (bills: Council) (moved: 4/27/11)


Saturday, April 7:

Hawaii Democratic caucuses (-46) (moved: 3/18/11)

Wyoming Democratic caucuses (-28) (moved: 3/16/11)


Saturday, April 14:

Idaho Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/1/11)

Kansas Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 5/24/11)

Nebraska Democratic caucuses (-63) (moved: 3/5/11)


Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses (-68) (moved: 4/4/11)

Washington Democratic caucuses (-64) (moved: 4/30/11)


Tuesday, April 24:

Pennsylvania


May 2012

Saturday, May 5:

Michigan Democratic caucuses (-67) (moved: 4/13/11)


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (bills: Senate)

West Virginia


Tuesday, May 15:

Idaho (+7) (bills: House) (moved: 2/23/11)

Nebraska

Oregon (bills: House)


Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas (-105) (bills: House) (moved: 2/4/09)

Idaho

Kentucky (bills: House) (died: legislature adjourned)

Washington (bills: House 1, 2/Senate -- cancel primary) (canceled: 5/12/11)


June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

Montana (GOP -119) (moved: 6/18/10)

New Mexico5 (bills: Senate) (died: legislature adjourned)

North Dakota Democratic caucuses (-119) (moved: 4/21/11)

South Dakota


Tuesday, June 26:

Utah (Republicans only) (-140) (moved: 6/5/11)


1 New Hampshire law calls for the Granite state to hold a primary on the second Tuesday of March or seven days prior to any other similar election, whichever is earlier. Florida is first now, so New Hampshire would be a week earlier at the latest. Traditionally, Iowa has gone on the Monday a week prior to New Hampshire. For the time being we'll wedge South Carolina in on the Saturday between New Hampshire and Florida, but these are just guesses at the moment. Any rogue states could cause a shift.

2 The Nevada Democratic caucuses date is based on both DNC rules and the state party's draft delegate selection plan as of February 24, 2011.

3 In Arizona the governor can use his or her proclamation powers to move the state's primary to a date on which the event would have an impact on the nomination. In 2004 and 2008 the primary was moved to the first Tuesday in February.
4 Massachusetts and Michigan are the only states that passed a frontloading bill prior to 2008 that was not permanent. The Bay state reverts to its first Tuesday in March date in 2012 while Michigan will fall back to the fourth Tuesday in February.
5 The law in New Mexico allows the parties to decide when to hold their nominating contests. The Democrats have gone in early February in the last two cycles, but the GOP has held steady in June. They have the option of moving however.



Posted by Josh Putnam at 6:00 PM 0 comments
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In Florida, Some Chatter Behind the Idea of a Thursday Presidential Primary

This is technically old news, but it is something that quietly came out of some comments that RNC Chair, Reince Priebus, made earlier in June. That was on the cusp of FHQ's mid-June break and thus slipped through the cracks. Yet, it is still something that warrants some discussion.

According to Adam Smith, political director at The St. Petersburg Times on the paper's political blog, The Buzz, one idea that has been talked about to some degree in Florida to help the Sunshine state potentially avoid sanction from the RNC is to hold a Thursday, March 1 presidential primary.

Republican leaders (Democrats have no say) are determined to be the fifth contest (after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina) and not bunched up with a bunch of other states. One idea we've heard lately is March 1 - a Thursday - which might enable Florida to comply with the RNC, avoid penalties, and perhaps also avoid sharing the stage with other states.
We wouldn't bet any money on that though. The study committee appeared aimed mainly at taking the pressure off the RNC and buying some time before causing the nominating calendar to implode. A February primary in Florida still seems like a [sic] strong possibility.
FHQ agrees with Smith that a February primary is still the most likely outcome at this point, but the Thursday idea is intriguing (an idea that came out of earlier discussions in Georgia as well). In fact, we have speculated here that Georgia might try and piggyback on Florida's date, forcing a subregional primary just outside of the window in which the parties allow non-exempt states to hold primaries and caucuses.

One thing that should be made crystal clear here is that a March 1 primary will not help Florida avoid penalties from the RNC unless the RNC opts to bend its rules slightly (something Priebus said would not happen in his comments in early June). All contests other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina must fall on a day on or after the first Tuesday in March (March 6). A Thursday primary would help Florida to avoid infringing on the early states' turf, but it would not bring the state into compliance with the national party rules.

Florida's Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee's decision will be determined to a great extent by what happens with the primaries in Arizona and Michigan. Arizona is seemingly locked on at least February 28 and Michigan Republicans will decide in August on when and how to allocate their delegates. If Michigan jumps into January, that will likely keep Florida there as well.


Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:00 PM 0 comments
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Ohio Secretary of State Supports May Presidential Primary

Last month FHQ looked at the efforts by the Ohio General Assembly to position the Buckeye state's presidential primary in 2012. Omnibus elections legislation passed the House to shift the contest back from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May, but the Senate version conflicted with the House-passed version. One of those differences was the date of the presidential primary. The Senate bill -- now in the House -- would keep the primary in March.

Indeed, the move to May is something that has been on the radar since the the beginning of the legislative session in January when Secretary of State John Husted (R) raised the possibility that the redistricting process could hamper the 2012 presidential primary in the state. Husted, at that time however, did not come down on one side or the other of the primary timing discussion. As the legislature's focus begins to shift from the budget to the redistricting process, though, his position has hardened in support of moving the contest to May. The primary impetus behind the shift is to allow elections administrators the opportunity to prepare for elections given the changing congressional and state legislative districts.

But lost in the discussion is the fact that Ohio Republicans have typically used some form of winner-take-all delegate allocation and with a March primary date the party would be susceptible to sanctions from the RNC should they not shift to proportional allocation as called for by the Republican delegate selection rules. A May date would help the state party avoid that issue. A change in the allocation of the at-large delegates based on the statewide results would also accomplish that, however.

Regardless, it appears as if there is support for the May primary date in the one place it had not been earlier, the Senate. The House bill with the May primary date provision is on the Senate Government Oversight and Reform Committee agenda both today and tomorrow and could be reported to the full Senate as a result. According to Secretary Husted, there is support in the Senate for the change.


Posted by Josh Putnam at 2:00 PM 0 comments
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