An Update on the Situation with the South Carolina Presidential Primary

Well, that caucus thing isn't happening. According to Danny Yadron at the Washington Wire blog:¹

“That is not on the table and will not happen,” state GOP Executive Director Matt

Moore told Washington Wire. “We got a good start on fund-raising.”

Later, South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson clarified the issue of either of the state parties contracting the South Carolina Elections Commission -- the institution that carried out the 2008 presidential primaries for the state/parties -- to do the same in 2012, but with state party funding. Wilson's statement:

"Unless the statute is repealed, or a court concludes otherwise, we believe the answer to your question is yes," the opinion states. "The State Election Commission possesses the authority either to conduct the Presidential Preference Primary itself, or, in the alternative, to contract with the parties to do so."

That frees the South Carolina Republican Party to use the commission, but still puts the party in the position of having to raise the money necessary to hold a primary in 2012. The only remaining piece of that puzzle is how much of the estimated $1.5 million will the party have to raise. Nearly $700,000 left over from the 2010 cycle had been earmarked in the budget that passed the state legislature as available for the primary. The question was whether Governor Nikki Haley (R) would veto that part of the bill. The answer, due tomorrow, appears to be yes according to anonymous sources close to Haley.

In summary, then, there will be no last minute substitute caucuses, and the party-funded primary can be run by the South Carolina Elections Commission.

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¹ Yadron also tagged the line, "The state Democratic Party doesn't plan to hold a 2012 primary." onto the end of the post. The South Carolina Democratic Party's 2012 delegate selection plan proposal seems to refute that notion. There may not be a competitive Democratic primary in the Palmetto state, but it looks like they intend to hold a primary.

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Mindful of Huckabee in 2008, Will Romney Go on the Attack in 2012?

Michael D. Shear at The Caucus asks:

Is it time for Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, to turn his firepower on Representative Michele Bachmann?

Four years ago, Mr. Romney’s shot at the Republican nomination was dealt a nearly fatal blow when Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, emerged late in the game as a favorite of conservatives to win the Iowa caucuses.

Well, for the answer, we can go in a couple of directions. First of all, 2012 is not 2008. Mitt Romney's strategy for 2012 is fundamentally different than the direction the former Massachusetts governor's campaign took in 2008. Iowa was a big part of the 2008 strategy, and while the Hawkeye state is not completely off the radar for Romney in 2012, the state has been deemphasized. Romney will take his trips to states like Iowa and South Carolina, but his campaign has taken a calculated risk in deemphasizing them. If he can win them, great, but the Romney camp is betting that Romney can raise a boatload of money and win New Hampshire and Nevada (and perhaps rogue Florida and rogue Michigan as well), and if that doesn't winnow the field down to Romney and some token opposition, those wins (and money) will propel him into Super Tuesday.

Secondly, the political science literature tells us that it is a fool's errand for a frontrunner to go on the attack (see particularly Haynes, Flowers and Gurian, 2002). Why? There's no need to stoop to the level of your opponents' level. It is a sign of vulnerability. Now, this isn't to say that a frontrunner won't respond/attack if attacked, but generally we see that frontrunners act as if they are above the fray. Leave the attacking to someone else.

Let's put those two pieces together now. If Iowa has been downgraded strategically within the Romney campaign, then why go on the attack there? Nominal or not, Romney is the frontrunner in the race for the 2012 Republican nomination (as of June 2011 -- That could certainly change.). It just does not make a whole lot of sense for the former Massachusetts governor to attack Bachmann or anyone else in Iowa or anywhere else. Iowa is much more important to some other candidates. If anyone is going to attack Bachmann, it should probably be Tim Pawlenty or anyone else gunning for a caucus win in the Hawkeye state. And that's why Romney won't attack Bachmann. This isn't 2008 and Bachmann is not Huckabee. She doesn't represent to Romney what Huckabee did in 2008 anyway.

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Wisconsin Assembly Has Until Thursday to Pass Presidential Primary Bill, Avoid Delay

The Wisconsin legislature is staring down an extended recess break after Thursday closes the month of June. With both the Assembly (AB 162) and Senate-passed (SB 115) versions of the legislation to move the Badger state presidential primary from the third Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in April stuck in the Assembly Committee on Election and Campaign Reform, time is running out to some degree.¹ Wisconsin has a year-round legislative session, but for all intents and purposes that means that the legislature meets periodically throughout the entire calendar year. For most states with year-round sessions there is a concentrated period of activity during the first half of the year with more sporadic meetings occurring across the back half of the year.

Now, this in no way means that the legislation to move the primary is dead. What it means is that the legislature, if it doesn't act this week (prior to July 1), will have a small window of time in which to push the bill/bills the rest of the way through the legislative process. Given that the Republican Party requires notification of states' delegate selection plans by October 1 (see pg. 20), this most likely means that the Wisconsin legislature would have to act in the ten day window from September 13-22.

The practical implication of this is that the primary situation in Wisconsin will remain uncertain into the fall. This comes at a time (the first half of this year) when most states will have settled the timing of their primaries for 2012. Like the field of presidential candidates, the more time that passes, the more certainty we have about who will be in or out. The same is true for the 2012 presidential primary calendar: things are more certain now than they were in January, but there are still a decreasing number of states providing some uncertainty.

FHQ will have a run down of the status of the calendar -- a midpoint status report -- out sometime this week.

UPDATE: A tweet from Wisconsin DNC member Jason Rae made me realize something I left unsaid, or at least unclear, above. I fully expect this legislation to pass. The only question at this point is when. The legislature doesn't have anything on the session calendar after Thursday until September, so it will be either this week or then unless they convene during the intervening period. There is an August 4 deadline to submit bills to the governor in there as well.

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¹ There is currently no meeting of the Committee on Election and Campaign Reform scheduled for any time this week.

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New Jersey Senate Budget Committee Sends Bills to Eliminate Separate Presidential Primary to the Floor

The New Jersey state Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee this morning voted in favor of S 2883 and A 3777, the bills that would eliminate the separate February presidential primary. Both identical bills would return the presidential primary to the first Tuesday in June to be held concurrently with the primaries for statewide and local offices. Eleven of the thirteen committee members voted for a bill (bills including the simultaneously considered Senate version) that unanimously passed the state Assembly in May.¹

Having passed the committee hurdles in the Senate,² the bills now head to the floor for consideration by the full upper house. Both are expected to pass.

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¹ The way the committee tabulated the votes in realtime on the audio feed during the hearing was to count the votes in the affirmative. The remaining two members either voted no or abstained. Once FHQ has a better idea of the complete final vote tally, we'll update the post. Regardless, there was more than enough support for the bills to pass them.

² Due to the fiscal ramifications in these bills -- a savings of $12 million -- both had to go through the State Government Committee and then the Budget Committee as well.

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Gubernatorial Signature Expected on New York Presidential Primary Bill

According to the Associated Press, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) is expected to sign the recently passed SB 5753, the legislation to shift the New York presidential primary from February to April. The governor, or surrogates from his office, huddled with legislators of both parties to determine the date for the primary. Governor Cuomo's signature, it seems, is nothing more than a foregone conclusion.

That said, FHQ takes exception with the last statement in the AP account:

The state Board of Elections says a new bill is passed every four years to establish the date of the presidential primary.

Now, we have gotten wind through back channels that our 2012 presidential primary calendar had, in earlier months, been frowned upon by some within the New York state Board of Elections. Having been asked about New York defying national party delegate selection rules, the response was always what you read above: Something new is done every four years about the presidential primary election law and this current law is part of that trend. Notice that I didn't repeat what was said exactly; specifically in regard to the date. It is true that the legislature quadrennially tinkers with the process governing the election of delegates to the national conventions, but that does not always include changing or resetting the date every four years.

The archives for legislation on the New York legislature's information website go back as far as 1995 (the year a date would have been set for the 1996 elections) and there is nothing to indicate in those laws changes that the legislature creates a new law every four years regarding the presidential primary. In fact, in 1995, 1999 and 2003 nothing was done to change section 8-100 of the Laws of New York. Nothing was done to change the date of the primary from the first Tuesday in March until 2007 when the legislature passed legislation moving the primary from that date to the first Tuesday in February. And even that legislation said that that date could not be changed other than through an act of the legislature.

As I said the other day in the post about the situation in New York, the way the law would be after this legislation is signed, it specifically names April 24, 2012 as the date of the primary. That wasn't how the law was changed in 2007 and would require an act of the legislature to alter it in 2015. In other words, the primary date was clear heading into the 2012 cycle -- the first Tuesday in Febuary -- but it won't be in 2015.

And I'll be more than willing to accept any more concrete evidence that the Board of Elections in New York has to throw at this matter. FHQ will not tell them their business. But as it stands, it is not at all clear that the legislature changes/resets the date as a custom every four years.

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What's Happening with the Funding of the South Carolina Primary?

Not much really.

Much has been made over the last week about the fate of the South Carolina primary. The "will it be funded/not funded?" question is not a new one. On Friday, FHQ exchanged emails with Politico's Kendra Marr and my general sentiments have not changed since then given the most recent news from south of the border here in North Carolina. Here's what I told her:

I don't think I'm as pessimistic about SC as some of the things I've read about the situation there this week. I think the most important thing to note is that the state parties in SC have traditionally picked up the tab for their nomination contests. 2008 was the first time the legislature stepped in to pass legislation to institute state funding.

My take home is that the SC GOP will find a way to fund the contest and that it will be just as important to the Republican nomination as it always has been (assuming there is enough time between the FL primary and SC's).

The important thing is to take a step back and provide some context. The fact that state funding of the presidential primary was new in 2008 is extremely important in this instance. FHQ made the case back in March in our write up of the final days of the South Carolina state House's final consideration of the budget that the funding of the primary was new and was expendable because it had not been institutionalized as it is many other states. That is still the case, but let's look between the lines of what the various (Republican -- the ones in power) political actors are saying in the Palmetto state.

No, wait. I won't even give you the run down. Let's say that you, as a party, had funding for the contest in 2008 (or as an individual or interest group on a particular issue or project) and your funding was being threatened. Wouldn't your first order of business be to make the case for why said funding was necessary and what the "dire" consequences would be if that funding was stripped. In the instance of the South Carolina Republican Party, you may even have to mention that holding a caucus was necessary and that that would affect the amount of money and attention the presidential candidates and media would pay to the state.

It might come up.

Oh, it already has:

“It would be the death of a tradition that began after Reagan,” [Columbia-based GOP operative, Richard] Quinn said of ending the primary, which developed the reputation as “the place where presidents are chosen. It would be a tragedy,” Quinn said.

Quinn added a caucus likely would not include the independent voters whose turnout built the GOP primary, which does not require voters be registered Republicans to vote.

Again, FHQ just isn't that pessimistic about the situation. And we should be just as careful in our discussions of South Carolina's contest as we have been with Iowa's caucuses and the doomsday warnings about how candidates wouldn't pay attention to a contest in a state that is "lurching" to the right. The problem is the same really. Switching to a caucus would not be the "death knell" for South Carolina. It may be the death knell for Jon Huntsman's presidential aspirations -- a death knell that is likely to come before the nomination race reaches the Palmetto state anyway -- but it wouldn't necessarily be the end for South Carolina's role in the nomination process. Do caucuses, all other things equal, receive less money and attention from the candidates and the media than primary states? Yes they do as Paul Gurian's research has shown us. But allow me to stand on the shoulders of giants here with my own research. Early states matter more. Early states that have the spotlight to themselves matter even more. South Carolina, whether primary or caucus, will have one of those first four spots. Even if Florida's Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee decides to hold a January 3, 2012 primary, South Carolina, along with Iowa, New Hampshire and probably Nevada will jump the Sunshine state or any other state attempting to infringe on their first in the nation turf. That is just how this thing works until the national parties decide to adopt a different strategy for the nomination process.

And that brings us back to the point I was trying to make in drawing a line between Iowa and South Carolina. What we're really talking about here is that the frontrunner, Mitt Romney, is not spending the "requisite" amount of time in either state and that is being viewed as an indication of the downfall of these contests as important players in Republican presidential nomination races. Well, Mitt isn't doing that bad in either Iowa or South Carolina. His strategy is working for now and may work for 2012. But that doesn't demonstrate that Iowa and South Carolina won't be significant players in future nominations if the parties continue to protect their privileged positions. It would indicate that Romney made a calculated decision after his 2008 experience and did what was necessary to win a nomination (assuming the former Massachusetts governor does end up winning the nomination -- anything but a foregone conclusion) in the 2012 cycle. That's it. If Romney wins both Iowa and South Carolina, they will have been important. He will have won where he was not supposed to and that will essentially end the race.

Now, let's get back to South Carolina's situation. This discussion is nothing more than a last ditch effort to secure funding for the South Carolina Republican Party to hold a primary. If they cannot save that funding, I fully expect to the state party to do what former chair, Katon Dawson, said they would do:

“Raise the money and partner with the Election Commission,” Dawson said, when asked what the S.C. GOP should do. “They’re going to have to man up and get the thing done.”

And if the party doesn't do that, FHQ expects them to hold an early stand-alone caucus that won't include independent voters and won't hurt anyone but candidates seeking those independents' votes. Romney might like them, but it will likely really hurt someone like Huntsman who is counting on those sorts of voters to help him in New Hampshire and South Carolina to propel him into Florida. Romney doesn't necessarily need South Carolina for the nomination. He has other paths. Other candidates don't.

This has been a lot to look at. What's the take home? South Carolina will hold an early primary or caucus and the contest will have an impact on the outcome of the Republican nomination race. And that will be the case whether Governor Nikki Haley strikes the primary's funding from the budget via her veto or not.

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Ohio Senate Votes in Favor of Shifting Presidential Primary to May

The Ohio state Senate on Thursday, June 23 passed HB 194 by a party line 23-10 vote after a spirited debate in the upper chamber over the particulars of the omnibus elections bill. Democrats were on the outside looking in on a bill some of them accused Republicans of having "stacked the deck for 2012" (shortening the early voting and mail-in absentee voting windows). Republicans sponsors of the bill countered that the bill was not partisan so much as it added uniformity to the process in counties across the Buckeye state.

Less controversial was the provision within the bill to move the state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. Other than the introductory comments about the bill, the presidential primary date change was not even mentioned during the discussion and amendment process.

Given that the bill was amended in committee, it will now head back to the House before likely moving on to the governor.

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Rhode Island House Unanimously Passes Amended Senate Primary Bill

After passing HB 5653, the Rhode Island state House quickly followed that by unanimously passing the state Senate's presidential primary bill, SB 399, as well. Both bills were amended in the Judiciary Committee on the House side to shift the Ocean state's presidential primary back to late April and had some trivial corrections added on the floor. The Senate-passed version, now amended and identical to the House bill, returns to the Senate to be reconsidered.

The Senate has just under a week to complete consideration of the bills before the Rhode Island legislature adjourns next week as the month ends.

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Rhode Island House Passes Bill to Move Presidential Primary to April

By a 71-1 vote on Thursday afternoon, the Rhode Island state House unanimously passed an amended version of HB 5653. The bill would move the Ocean state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the fourth Tuesday in April. This moves Rhode Island one step closer to a proposed regional primary that would include Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Pennsylvania.

The bill will now move on to the Rhode Island state Senate for consideration in the upper chamber.

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Ohio Senate Committee Passes May Presidential Primary Legislation

On Wednesday, June 22, the Ohio Senate Government Oversight and Reform Committee on a party line vote favorably reported HB 194. The six Republicans on the panel voted in favor of the omnibus elections legislation while the three Democrats opposed the measure. The most contentious portion of the discussion seems to have centered on a photo ID requirement the committee added on Tuesday then removed on Wednesday:

A Senate committee inserted a change to the election bill Tuesday that would have required voters to show a photo ID before they could cast a ballot in person. The Republican-controlled panel dropped the changes Wednesday after the state's GOP election chief joined Democrats and the League of Women Voters of Ohio in opposing the measure.

Secretary of State Jon Husted said he was against it because it didn't give voters other ways to identify themselves, such as with their full Social Security numbers. Democrats argue the photo ID requirement would disenfranchise minorities and poorer Ohioans who tend to favor their party.

However, the provision to shift the Buckeye state presidential primary back from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May (among others) remained in the bill. HB 194 could receive a vote before the full state Senate today. It is the first bill on the upper chamber's agenda for today.

Assuming the bill is passed and signed into law, the presidential primary in Ohio would coincide with the primaries in neighboring Indiana and West Virginia as well as the primary in North Carolina.

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