Wyoming GOP Split on 2012 Caucuses Date

FHQ has devoted a fair amount of space to the movement of presidential primaries and Democratic caucuses ahead of the 2012 presidential nomination race, but for the most part, the grapevine has been quiet concerning Republican caucuses. Very little information has come out of the state Republican Parties in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, North Dakota, Washington and Wyoming about the timing of their caucus meetings next year. Sure, the political science literature will tell us that primaries are more important than caucuses, but these states represent question marks on the landscape of the primary calendar. All six states held opening caucus meetings in 2008 at points that would not be compliant under the 2012 delegate selection rules if used again. For the record, that is not usually a good benchmark for determining when caucuses will be held from cycle to cycle. Indeed, caucus dates are so volatile, that past dates are little help at all. In other words, though we haven't heard much from these state parties regarding their caucus dates, the are question marks and not threats to jump early on the calendar.

Still, if we're trying to figure out the layout of the overall calendar, those dates are information FHQ is interested in. And while I do not foresee most of these states attempting to "stampede" to the front, there is some evidence that at least one on the list might try. Wyoming Republicans, who violated RNC rules in 2008 by holding January 5 caucus meetings, are signaling that they may be willing to repeat the rules-breaking in 2012. But the minutes from the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee meeting in April indicate a split within the group. Here's the description from the Wyoming Republican Party (emphasis is FHQ's):

Fremont County Committeeman, John Birbari, stated that he would like to see our 2012 caucuses moved once again to an earlier date. John Birbari made the motion to move the Presidential caucus to be held before the second Tuesday in March, 2012, Brian Scott Gamroth, seconded the motion. During discussion, Big Horn County Committeeman, Bernie DuMontier, said he enjoyed having the caucus early because he was able to speak to 5 Presidential Candidates. Natrona County Chairman, Miles Dahlby, stated he does not want it moved, due to penalties from the RNC. Jim Bunch agreed. Washakie County Committeewoman, Dru Bower-Moore, and National Committeewoman, Jan Larimer, expressed that they are against an early caucus date. Goshen County Chairman, Doug Chamberlain, made a motion to table the discussion until and the summer meeting. Johnson County Committeeman. Bill Novotny made the second to table the motion until the summer meeting. The motion was tabled until a later date.A Committee with Doug Chamberlain, Greg Schaefer, Brian Scott Gamroth, Bernie DuMontier, David Horning, Kevin Voyles, Diana Vaughn, Dru Bower-Moore and Jan Larimer was formed to work on the issue.

That tells us a few things. First of all, the caucuses are apparently set for the second Tuesday in March, though, there is nothing on the Wyoming Republican Party site to document that other than the reference above. Secondly, that is a date on which the Alabama and Mississippi primaries are scheduled as well as the Hawaii Republican caucuses. Finally, and most importantly, there is some support on the Wyoming Republican State Central Committee to move the caucuses to an earlier date as in 2008. However, there is opposition to that idea on the committee including from the state's Republican National Committeewoman, Jan Larimer.

There is, then, some support for moving up in Wyoming, and the opposition is based on the RNC rules. In any event, the discussion was table and will be taken up at the committee's summer meeting. That meeting is set to take place in Caspar on August 26-27.

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Other notes:

• Mitt Romney won the January 5 Wyoming caucuses in 2008.
• Wyoming Democrats have previously indicated that they will hold April 7 caucuses.

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Louisiana Presidential Primary to March 24

Bill Barrow of the New Orleans Times-Picayune is reporting that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R) on WednesdayTuesday, June 2928, signed into law a bill moving the Pelican state presidential primary from February to March. HB 509 passed its last legislative test passing the state Senate on June 20. The bill shifts the Louisiana presidential primary from the second or third Saturday in February to the third Saturday after the first Tuesday in March.

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The new date will find Louisiana in its own niche between the Illinois primary on March 20 and the Maryland and Washington, DC primaries on April 3.

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Rhode Island Senate Passes Companion April Presidential Primary Bill from the House

In what will likely (hopefully!?!) the last presidential primary bill passed on a very busy legislative day, Rhode Island brought up the rear. The state Senate in the Ocean state, a night after having passed the House-amended version of its own primary bill (SB 399), passed HB 5653. Both bills would move the Rhode Island presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the fourth Tuesday in April to coincide with primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Pennsylvania.

On a 36-1 vote on the eve of the adjourning, the Rhode Island General Assembly sends to Governor Lincoln Chaffee (I) the second of two presidential primary bills.

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Delaware House Makes Quick Work of April Presidential Primary Bill

The Delaware House spared no time in passing SB 89 after the bill emerged from committee earlier this afternoon. By a unanimous vote -- 41-0 -- on the day before the legislature is set to adjourn, the House passed and sent off to Governor Jack Markell (D) the bill that would move the First state's presidential primary back nearly three months (from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April).

Should Governor Markell sign the legislation, Delaware's primary would coincide with primaries in Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

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Ohio House Concurs with Elections/Presidential Primary Bill, Passes on to Governor

Ann Sanner of the Associated Press is reporting that the Ohio state House has voted to concur with the Senate changes to HB 194. The elections legislation would shift the presidential primary in the Buckeye state from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. The Ohio Senate last week passed the bill with only minor changes after it had passed its own elections bill (that among other things did not include the provision moving the presidential primary). That Senate bill stalled in the House as the the Senate considered and passed the House version. Last week's Senate changes forced today's vote -- 59-40 in favor -- in the House.

HB 194 now moves on to Governor John Kasish (R) for his signature or veto. Assuming a signature, the Ohio presidential primary would coincide with primaries in neighboring Indiana and West Virginia, setting up a subregional primary just a week after the proposed northeast/mid-Atlantic primary (Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island).

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New Jersey Senate Unanimously Passes Bill Eliminating Separate Presidential Primary

The New Jersey state Senate this afternoon substituted A 3777 for the identical S 2883 and then unanimously passed -- by a vote of 39-0 -- the bill to eliminate the separate presidential primary. The impact of this legislation will essentially be to move the New Jersey presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the first Tuesday in June, concurrent with the primaries for statewide and local offices.

This vote was the last legislative hurdle for the bill and it will now head to Governor Chris Christie (R) for his consideration. Christie has indicated some support for the idea in the past.

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Delaware House Committee Advances April Presidential Primary Legislation

The Delaware state House Administration Committee this afternoon unanimously passed -- by a vote of 5-0 -- SB 89, the bill that would move the First state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in April. As was stated earlier today in FHQ's post updating the situation in Rhode Island, that would place Delaware on a date shared by four other neighboring states (Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island), forming a small northeastern/mid-Atlantic regional primary.

The bill now heads to the House floor for consideration there by the full lower chamber.

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Idaho Republicans Considering Super Tuesday Caucuses

Dan Popkey of the Idaho Statesman is reporting today that the Idaho Republican Party is discussing the possibility of abandoning the mid-May presidential primary for earlier caucuses. The party's State Central Committee will take up the caucus proposal passed by a subcommittee recently during its July 16 meeting.

Now, as the article states, Idaho Democrats have traditionally used a caucus in lieu of the state funded primary. State Democrats have already opted to once again hold caucuses, selecting an April 14 date. Republicans, too, now seem willing to give up that state funding by funding their own delegate selection event at a time on the presidential primary calendar that may provide the state with some measure of influence over the identity of the Republican nominee. That would leave a meaningless beauty contest Idaho primary in May at the presidential level. Idaho is a state that holds concurrent presidential and state/local primaries, and the latter contests would make the May primary partially meaningful.

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One footnote that I would add to all of this is that this is an interesting development in light of Monday's late night news out of Utah. Recall that I made the argument yesterday that the Romney campaign would want a Utah primary on March 6, coupled with contests in Colorado and later Hawaii (March 13) to counteract the former Massachusetts governor's perceived weakness in the South. A Colorado/Idaho/Utah series of wins would partially counter losses in the host of southern states holding primaries during the first two weeks of March.

Theoretically, this sounds good. Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen recently tweeted that Romney is the "key to the Mountain West for GOP" in the general election. Further, he adds, "It really might be fair to say GOP nominating anyone other than Romney locks down 2008 pick ups of CO/NM/NV for Obama, puts AZ on the board." I should emphasize that this is in relation to the general election and not the primaries, so it isn't the same thing. However, Mitt Romney won nominating contests in all three (Colorado, Idaho and Utah) in 2008. Caucuses in Colorado and Idaho may be a different animal in 2012, though. They would be potentially more difficult to control. However, if all the other candidates are focused on the southern contests, Romney may be able to focus his resources on organizing in those three western contests with only moderate (or even token) expenditures in the South.

And yeah, I'm willing to bet that this caucus idea came up at least once during the fundraiser Romney held -- and mentioned in the Statesman article -- in Boise last week. Call it a hunch.

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Rhode Island Senate Passes House-Amended, April Presidential Primary Bill

The Rhode Island Senate on Tuesday, June 28, passed by a vote of 34-2 a measure to shift the Ocean state's presidential primary from the first Tuesday in March to the fourth Tuesday in April. S 399 originated in the state Senate and was passed in April with no provision addressing the scheduling of the presidential primary. The House added that amendment to the bill and passed the package last week. Initially, the legislation was on the calendar for a vote on Wednesday, but with time running out in a legislative session due to adjourn at the end of the month on Thursday, the Senate got to it early.

S 399 now heads to Governor Lincoln Chaffee (I) for his consideration. The move would place the Rhode Island primary on the same date as the presidential primary in Pennsylvania next year. Legislation has already been passed in both Connecticut and New York to move those states' primaries to April 24 as well. Legislation eying the same date is also active in Delaware. Together, the moves would set up a five state regional primary in late April.

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Hat tip to Philip Marcello at the Providence Journal for bringing news of the early vote to FHQ's attention.

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Prominent Utah Legislators Don't Appear to Have a Desire to Appropriate Money for a Presidential Primary

Both the Deseret News and Salt Lake Tribune have followed up on the report that the Romney campaign is working to move the Beehive state's presidential primary up from its current late June date. Good local sources that they both are, they have dug a little deeper into the story. If the Utah presidential primary is to be moved a separate election will have to be funded ($2.5-3 million) and the date in the state's election law will have to be changed. The latter is more of a formality, but state legislators -- those who will actually have to make the changes -- have so far balked at the idea of spending up to an additional $3 million that Utah does not necessarily have.

While there is support among at least one legislator, both the president of the state Senate and the speaker of the state House were lukewarm to the idea of appropriating additional funds for a separate presidential primary earlier on the calendar. Via the Deseret News:

House Speaker Becky Lockhart, R-Provo, said she wasn't convinced an earlier primary is a good idea — or even one that lawmakers will be asked to consider.

"I've only heard rumors about it at this point, so I'm not even sure how serious it is," Lockhart said. "No one's made a request."

...and...

"There was not a big appetite because of the money," Senate President Michael Waddoups, R-Taylorsville, said. "We didn't think based on what happened before, it would have much of an impact."

Waddoups, a Romney supporter, said an early primary still isn't worth the money in what looks to be another tight budget year. "Where would they get it? Unless revenues are up, all the money's been spent."

Additionally, via the Salt Lake Tribune:

Senate President Michael Waddoups said Monday that he doesn’t see the point in spending the money to move the primary up. “I think you’d have quite a bit of convincing to do,” he said.

...and...

“We’re still balancing budgets,” said House Majority Whip Greg Hughes, R-Draper, a Huntsman supporter. “If these operatives for people who want to represent the beltway suggest we’re to spend $3 million to have two primaries within a couple months, that’s a ‘nice-to-have,’ that’s not a ‘have-to-have,’ and we’re still in have-to-have mode in our budgets.”

As I said, there is support for the idea, but members of the both the state Senate and House leadership are openly resistant to paying for the contest.

...at least initially. If the money can be found, it may open the door to the primary moving.

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