Colorado Republicans Set to Vote on Moving Precinct Caucuses to February

The Colorado Republican Party State Central Committee is scheduled to meet this coming Saturday, September 24. According to a report from Caitlin Gibbons at the Denver Post, among the items to be considered is a plan to move the party's precinct caucuses from the first Tuesday in March (Super Tuesday, March 6) to the first Tuesday in February (February 7). This is a move that is allowed by state law and is -- despite the date -- compliant with the RNC rules concerning presidential delegate allocation.

As has been the case with similar non-binding caucuses that have been scheduled in February thus far (Maine and Minnesota), Colorado would avoid the threat of sanction from the Republican National Committee based on the fact that no delegates to the national convention are being directly allocated based on the first step (precinct level) of the caucus process. This was the same rule that in 2008 allowed Iowa and Nevada to circumvent sanction while the other pre-February 5 states -- including New Hampshire and South Carolina -- lost half of their delegates.¹ In other words, there is something of a loophole to Republican delegate selection rules that is motivating at least some caucus states like Colorado to move up  in an attempt to influence the nomination process.

As FHQ has stated, however, the question as to whether these non-binding contests will have an impact on the finalization of the 2012 presidential primary calendar, much less the race for the nomination itself, remains an open one. With Minnesota Republicans already scheduled on February 7 and Missouri poised to officially join that date tomorrow should the legislature in the Show Me state not reconcile differences in a March presidential primary bill currently stalled there, one can at least partially provide an affirmative answer to that question.

A few thoughts:
1) Despite saying earlier that a move to February was not likely -- though technically possible given Colorado state election law -- Colorado Republican Party Chairman Ryan Call and the state central committee appear to see a penalty-free, non-binding February caucus as too irresistible. And with Maine and Minnesota operating under a similar rationale, why not roll the dice? Colorado has what neither of those states nor Missouri has: swing state status in the general election. [Sorry Missouri. The one silver lining in the Show Me state is that a primary allows for the possibility of energizing a larger set of voters than the caucuses are likely to have. But let's see what happens in Jefferson City on Friday before going down that road.]

2) Strategically, February 7 -- aside from being penalty-free -- is probably more attractive than March 6 for Colorado Republicans based on the numbers alone. It is better to share a date with Minnesota and maybe Missouri than it is to share the spotlight with nearly ten other contests -- mostly primaries -- on March 6. Why pass that up?

3) Additionally, Iowa is often accused of having two bites at the apple with the Ames Straw Poll and the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Would Colorado and other non-binding caucus states have that same privilege? They could. The delegates chosen at the precinct level are not bound by the results of the first step of the process. [Truth be told, though, it is probably a touch naive to think that these are all open-minded delegates moving on to the county level without some holding some allegiance to one candidate or another.] Technically speaking, then, the candidates would potentially be interested in returning to the state during the point at which delegates are actually being allocated to attempt to lobby delegates for their support.

4) Speaking of Missouri, let's say that nothing is done about the March primary legislation tomorrow and the special session ends. Missouri would be locked into February 7. But why wouldn't Republicans there -- and there are at least two Republican state senators that support this -- opt out of the primary and hold an early, non-binding caucus on February 7? Well, the party would likely lose a great number of participants in the switch, but Republicans in Missouri could also circumvent the RNC rules that way and not lose half of their delegates. Again, FHQ will hit the pause button on this one until Friday afternoon.

5) FHQ has said it before and has received some push back, but Romney won caucuses in Colorado, Maine and Minnesota in 2008. Sure, he positioned himself differently in 2008 than in 2012. Yes, the Tea Party has impacted caucus states in the time since then. But as we have seen with debate performances from the former Massachusetts governor, there is something to be said for having done this before. Romney has been able to put together a winning slate of delegates in these states before. That doesn't mean the other candidates cannot, but it does mean that Romney -- even if all the 2008 caucus-going supporters don't come back -- has something of an organizational infrastructure advantage over his counterparts. Quietly, Romney was to caucuses in 2008 what Obama was on the Democratic side. His efforts just got lost among a sea of losses elsewhere on Super Tuesday.

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¹ Incidentally, one aspect of all of this that is not being talked about at the moment is that if Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are forced into January, all but Iowa would face the 50% delegation penalty that  all other pre-March 6 states will face. That includes Nevada in 2012 because as a means of attracting candidate/media attention, Nevada Republicans elected to make the precinct caucus results proportional and determinative in terms of the delegate allocation.

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Funding Still an Issue for South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

The question of how the South Carolina Republican presidential primary will be paid for is one that simply won't die. The story has moved from a battle between the state government and the state Republican Party to one more between the state party and elected Republicans on the county level. The latter is more of an intra-party battle; particularly given the Republican Party dominance in the Upstate of South Carolina.

At issue now is that the Spartanburg and Greenville County Councils are considering a lawsuit against the  South Carolina Elections Commission over what local officials are calling an "unfunded mandate" -- that they are being made to disburse funds not accounted for in county budgets for a party function. Yes, on the surface this looks like more of a state versus municipal government dispute. There is that element to this, but again, given the nature in which Republican partisanship permeates the state, much less the region of the state in question, it becomes just as much an issue of tensions between state and local Republicans.

For our purposes here at FHQ, this isn't entirely meaningful. This dispute will not affect the South Carolina Republican Party's ability to stage a presidential primary next year. However, what this does do is call into question the ability of the party to pull off a contest that operates smoothly. Once the looming time crunch is layered in as well, the picture becomes even murkier. If these questions concerning the funding of the primary persist simultaneous with the reality that this is going to be an mid-January to early February contest, the likelihood that the contest can be held without significant problems drops. Now, if the results end up being one-sided for Perry or Romney or whomever, this will not be an issue. Yet, if the primary is a close one, there could conceivably be challenges brought because corners were cut to hold the contest in a cost-effective manner (fewer polls workers, etc.).

Now, this may prove to be something of a false alarm ex post facto, but it warrants watching between now and when the South Carolina primary rolls around.

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Ohio Presidential Primary Back to March 6

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FHQ alluded to the rollercoaster ride that has been the process to set the date of the Ohio presidential primary for 2012 yesterday. And it was yesterday that the Ohio Senate Government Oversight and Reform Committee opted to take no action on the recently-passed House bill to move the date -- for the second time -- from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. That insurance policy bill (HB 318)¹, introduced originally because a petition drive to overturn the enacted omnibus elections legislature, imperiled the presidential primary date change contained therein.

After a nearly nine month saga, the Ohio presidential primary is right back where it started: March 6, 2012. And the newly-enrolled redistricting bill (HB 319) reflects that date.

A couple of thoughts:
1. Ohio potentially just became a real prize on March 6. Prize or not, it will likely be the battleground on that date. Now, that statement is predicated on the notion that this will be a Romney-Perry race at that point. The expectation would be that Perry would do well in the southern contests that day (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and possibly Missouri) while Romney might be better served focusing his efforts on western caucuses in Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming with Perry-like expectations for victory in Massachusetts and Vermont. That leaves Ohio -- and the midwest more broadly -- as the potential tiebreaker on that day (and later on in the race overall). I don't think this is something that should be understated. Ohio just inadvertently became a pretty big presidential primary. Despite falling on a crowded date -- not as crowded with contests as Super Tuesday 2008, but crowded nonetheless -- Ohio is well-positioned to gain quite a bit of attention in this process.

2. Far be it from me to look forward -- way forward -- but that's kind of what we do around here. What happens to the 2016 Ohio primary? Nothing if the aforementioned petition drive is successful, gets the new election law on the November 2012 ballot and is subsequently voted down by Ohio voters. But if the drive fails or the ballot measure is not voted down, the primary will be set for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May.² That may mean nothing in the grand scheme of things, but at the very least it means that the legislature may be forced to revisit the primary date in 2015 if there is no consensus behind that May date. Time will tell.

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¹ FHQ should also note that there was an equivalent bill introduced in the Senate (SB 217).

² September 29 is the deadline, so we will know relatively soon whether the petition has received the requisite number of signatures.

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Utah Presidential Primary Move to February or March Unlikely

Robert Gehrke at the Salt Lake Tribune has reported that a plan to set aside Utah state funds to move the Beehive state presidential primary from June to February or March appears dead. The idea to move the primary to an earlier date to potentially aid Mitt Romney's candidacy gathered steam in June after the state Republican Party opted to link the Utah Republican delegate allocation to the late June primary for state and local offices.¹ That followed the state legislature's refusal to allocate the necessary funds to hold a presidential primary in the budget bill considered during the winter session of the legislature.

The effort to appropriate the $3 million for the election was an uphill climb among the Republican majority in the winter and appears to be equally daunting ahead of an upcoming special session. This is even more clear when the bearer of the news was the Senate president -- and Romney supporter -- Michael Waddoups. The prognosis was no better in the House:

During a House GOP caucus Wednesday, Rep. David Clark, R-Santa Clara, asked if the state was going to stick with the June date, and House Speaker Becky Lockhart, R-Provo, responded that is the plan. 

"So we’re back to the same flyover status we had before," Clark said.

Utah, then, will bring up the rear of the 2012 presidential primary calendar with a June 26 primary.

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¹ It should be noted that the same financial concerns about such a move were raised nearly as soon as the early primary proposal story broke. If steam gathered, then, it quickly dissipated.

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Missouri Senate Adjourns; Presidential Primary Bill Saved for Supposed Last Special Session Day on Friday

After threatening earlier in the day to walk out of the Missouri General Assembly special session altogether, the Republican Senate majority came out of recess this evening to announce that it would adjourn until Friday, September 23. At issue was a deal reportedly cut between the state House Republican leadership and Governor Jay Nixon (D) on an economic development package that excluded the Senate Republican leadership input. What this means is that Friday becomes particularly important not only for that specific piece of legislation, but for all the other active bills yet to reconciled between the House and the Senate. That is a list that includes the presidential primary bill.  The pressure is raised even higher for Friday considering that many lawmakers are resistant to the special session extending past that point.

And that translates into a likely whirlwind afternoon and evening session in the Missouri General Assembly to finish up work on the economic package as well as square the differences -- if they exist -- in the chambers' versions of the presidential primary bill. The House has passed a version of HB 3 that shifts the date for the Show Me state presidential primary from February to March but also raises the candidate filing fee in the process. However, there is a Senate amendment to be considered that would eliminate the presidential primary election completely and push for early caucuses by the parties.

Now, it should be noted that the General Assembly had a similar marathon end to the regular session in May. The move of the presidential primary was equally in doubt in conference committee at that time given that committee substitutes to both the House and Senate bills called for the primary, among other things, to be anchored to the the New Hampshire primary, falling a week after the Granite state. In the end, the differences were reconciled in conference and agreed to in both chambers, though the deal was ladened with additional provisions.

The time crunch will potentially produce a similar result on Friday; decreasing the chance of the primary elimination amendment receiving a positive vote before the Senate while also decreasing the chance that the Senate and House enter separate veto sessions to override the Governor Nixon's veto of the regular session bill to move the presidential primary to March (SB 282). The Missouri presidential primary may or may not be moved, but an answer will likely be revealed once and for all on Friday.

In other words, by then it will be known whether Missouri will be stuck on February 7, thus triggering another forward shift in the dates Florida, South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa -- in that order -- are likely to adopt. Oddly enough, that very likely pushes Florida back to January 31 where it was scheduled in the first place before the law was changed earlier in 2011.

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Republican Legislators in Ohio Push Back Against Democrats on Buckeye State Presidential Primary

Ohio has proven to be an interesting case study of presidential primary movement in the 2012 cycle. For starters, Ohio legislators never considered the Florida/Arizona/Michigan route. There was never any effort to move the primary from a compliant position on the calendar (first Tuesday after the first Monday in March) to a non-compliant earlier spot. Instead, as a means of insuring that legislators and state elections officials had enough time to adjust to newly drawn congressional/state legislative district lines, the effort was always to move the primary back. That was a discussion point from the Ohio secretary of state as early as January and continued as the primary move was inserted in a broad elections bill in April.

But the process -- one motivated by seemingly noble intentions -- has since that time been a rollercoaster ride that has devolved into a political battle over redistricting between the parties in the Ohio state legislature. Democrats last week withdrew support for the May presidential primary bill based on concerns Democratic state legislators and the Ohio Democratic Party had over the Republican-proposed new district lines. As FHQ mentioned, that amounted to not much more than a symbolic move on the part of Democrats. Republicans control both chambers of the legislature in Ohio and can pass the redistricting and presidential primary bills with or without legislative Democrats. Procedurally, however, Democrats have prevented Republicans from inserting an emergency clause that will allow the bills to take effect immediately.

But according to Andy Brownfield of the AP, the Republican majority now has a technical maneuver of their own in order to pass and ultimately protect both bills and have them take effect upon gubernatorial signature. The tactical workaround Republicans have at their disposal as a means of forcing an immediate "effective by" date is to add to the measures some clause dealing with the appropriations of state funds. Any appropriations bill passed by the legislature and signed into law takes immediate effect in Ohio. At least one appropriations option that is being discussed is to create separate primaries for state and federal offices with the former being held as usual in March while the latter would be created and moved to May. The May primary would include not only the presidential primary but those for US House and Senate as well. That would be a set of offices on a primary ballot unique to Ohio. Typically, the split is made at the presidential level while everything else is dealt with -- in states with separate primaries -- in one other primary.

That helps ward off the procedural move by Democratic legislators, but prevent -- at least in the case of the redistricting bill -- those same Democrats and the Ohio Democratic Party from attempting to place the new lines before Ohio voters in 2012 as they have done with the voter ID and reduced early voting law (the one that included the May presidential primary provision).

Look for any changes to the bill to surface when the House-passed HB 318 emerges from committee on the Senate side.

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Michigan is a Rick Snyder Signature Away from Solidifying February 28 Presidential Primary Date

This afternoon the Michigan state House passed SB 584 by a vote of 63-45 on partisan lines. The House passage of the bill now sends the legislation to the desk of Governor Rick Synder (R) for his consideration. The bill maintains the status quo on the presidential primary date -- February 28 -- but attempts to restrict the participation in the primary to Republican registrants.

Assuming the legislation is signed, Michigan would join Arizona as a state in violation of the RNC rules on delegate selection. Unlike Arizona, however, Michigan might be able to petition the national party for an exemption to the rule based on the fact that other elections are traditionally held on the fourth Tuesday in February. Whether the state party would be successful in that action will be up to the RNC which has maintained a pretty consistent line on potential rogue states: that states meeting that criteria would lose half of their delegates.

Gubernatorial action is now pending on legislation affecting presidential primary dates in Michigan, New Jersey and Wisconsin.

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Additional Notes on the Missouri Presidential Primary Situation

FHQ has stated already that we are not nearly as pessimistic about the proposed move of the Missouri presidential primary to March as we were when the news broke last week that the special session legislation (HB 3) to actually move the primary became lodged in the state Senate. That is because there is still one escape valve that the Republican majority can use that will also move the primary to March 6: a veto override of SB 282.¹

Of course, it would help if we had confirmation that this was actually an option. On that front, however, there are conflicting signals from the two chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. The House is saying on the one hand that the September 14 veto session was a one-day event and has concluded. The Senate, on the other, indicates that a veto override of SB 282 is still possible.

Which is right?

Procedurally, the legislature has a ten day window in which to consider overriding a gubernatorial veto. While the House has completed its veto override business for 2011, the Senate may yet send some more actionable bills its way. The veto session operates not unlike executive sessions in the US Senate. The Senate will basically hit the pause button on what it is working on to go into executive session to consider executive branch nominations to various posts. In listening into the session last Wednesday in the Missouri Senate, it appears that the mechanism is the same in the Missouri General Assembly. The Senate stopped off its discussion of a handful of House-passed special session bills and went into veto session for a couple of hours before returning to raise the issues that have come to the fore with the presidential primary bill (HB 3).

Technically, then, if the Senate successfully overrides Nixon's veto of SB 282 -- the seemingly only available option to move the primary to March 6 -- then the bill would presumably go over the House and that chamber could likewise enter a veto session to consider the bill. And that can take place within the ten calendar day window discussed above. In other words, since both chambers had veto sessions on September  14, each would have to act on a veto override on or before Friday, September 23 (this coming Friday).

Either the veto will be overridden by the end of the work week or the special session will or will not extend into next week to resolve the conflict over the special session legislation. One option will be off the table at the end of the week though. And the the viability of that veto override option will depend to a great degree on how ominous the passage of HB 3 is throughout the rest of this week as well. If a block of that bill is firmed up, the chances of a veto override increase. But if a deal can be cut on the primary or caucus -- via HB 3 -- then the override becomes a distant memory. The way Senate Republicans are playing this, however, makes it look like they are only giving Democrats in the legislature one escape route: the override.

The Republican majority will need four Democrats in the House to override any veto. The Democrats may feel the pressure to go along with the override if they are faced with a non-compliant presidential primary.²

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¹ After a rather circuitous route through the legislature (follow the path via the Missouri tag), SB 282 was vetoed by Missouri Governor Jay Nixon (D). The governor did this not to keep the Show Me state presidential primary in a non-compliant February position on the calendar, but to prevent the legislative branch from curbing executive power in the area of statewide vacancy appointments. To kill the part the governor did not like, then, he had to kill the whole bill.

² Then again, Missouri Democrats could always lean on the already-scheduled March 29 caucuses as a means of allocating delegates to the Democratic convention. But that would mean potentially adopting a caucus/convention system long term; something with which the state party may or may not be comfortable.

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Michigan Senate Presidential Primary Bill Passes House Committee

The Michigan House Redistricting and Elections Committee this morning recommended SB 584 for passage (without amendment) by the full House. The only bill that was on the committee agenda for today would maintain a February 28 date for the presidential primary in the Wolverine state while modifying the parameters for participation in the contest. On the state Republican Party's request, the legislature is making efforts to "close" the contest to independents and Democrats by requiring a sworn statement that any voter is a Republican (in this case) as a means of enforcement. Additionally, that information will, after the primary, be made publicly available.

The bill now goes to the House floor for consideration by the full chamber.

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Maine GOP to Caucus Between February 4-11

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The Maine Republican Party last weekend (Saturday, September 10) voted at their State Central Committee meeting to hold caucuses as a means of beginning the presidential delegate allocation process between Saturday, February 4 and Saturday, February 11.¹ Since the Maine process does not directly allocate delegates during the initial step of the caucus process, the state party will not be vulnerable to the half delegation penalty for holding a non-compliant contest. Iowa and Nevada were the only pre-February states during the 2008 cycle to avoid sanction from the Republican National Committee for the same reason.

As Alexander Burns at Politico points out Maine is one of a handful of caucus states considering this option -- and recall the dates of caucuses in Alaska, North Dakota and Washington are still unknown -- and it remains unclear what the individual or collective impact of Minnesota or Maine or even Colorado or Louisiana holding such early caucus meetings. The RNC really has no recourse. These states would not be in violation of the 2012 Republican delegate selection rules and are thus free to hold the early meetings.  That said, the true impact of the moves can be answered only by the campaigns actions. If the candidates stay away, then none of these states will be of consequence in the grand scheme of the nomination race. But with the contest looking like a protracted delegate fight -- at this point in time -- between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, it will be difficult to keep the candidates away from states where delegates will not be on the line, but where the initial stages can influence subsequent steps in the process and thus the ultimate allocation of delegates.

FHQ has a few thoughts on this situation.
1. One really needs go no further back than the 2008 cycle to see how the non-binding, initial stages of a caucus/convention process can have an outsized impact on the final allocation of delegates. Many recall how Mitt Romney scored a large-margin victory in Nevada on the same Saturday as the 2008 South Carolina primary. The latter had drawn most of the attention from the Silver state and Romney coasted to victory with Ron Paul a distant second. The Texas congressman may have been well back of Romney in the tally, but the Paul delegates from the precinct level were able to organize their efforts enough to wreak havoc on the subsequent steps in the process. The Nevada Republican Party eventually canceled the state convention and the state central committee allocated the delegates via conference call. In other words, underestimate the potential impact of these early contests at your own risk, especially in the context of a competitive, two person race.

2. FHQ semi-jokingly tweeted the other day in response to the news that Mitt Romney was heading to Arizona to campaign that if the RNC was utilizing the same penalties the DNC has adopted and used over the last two cycles, Romney would not be out in Arizona. No, instead the former Massachusetts governor would stay well away from the Grand Canyon state in order not to lose any delegates he may win in the contest. The Democratic Party not only [planned to] stripped half the delegations of states violating the timing rules for primaries and caucuses, but candidates campaigning in any such rogue state ahead of the non-compliant contest there would lose any delegates won in the primary or caucus.

The Democratic Party muddled the effectiveness of that penalty to some degree by changing, rechanging and then changing again the penalties because of the Florida and Michigan situation. But the main reason the penalty did not appear to work was that Republican candidates, unfettered by those rules, were campaigning vigorously in both states. If the candidates can be kept out of a state, then the state has no attention and thus no motivation to be early in the process. [Just as a side note, think of how severe a Republican candidate-centered penalty like that would affect things in an early state with winner-take-all allocation by congressional district. That could end up being a large number of unpledged/should have been pledged delegates, and thus an effective deterrent to the leapfrogging problems of 2008 and 2012.]

3. Finally, there is some precedent for this sort of thing in a Republican nomination race: 1996.  In that year, Hawaii, Alaska and Louisiana all held caucuses -- and in Louisiana's case a binding caucus -- prior to the Iowa caucuses. Phil Gramm was knocked out of the race due to Louisiana, candidates visited Alaska and because Bob Dole, from neighboring Kansas, was running, Iowa was minimized. That put a huge amount of pressure on the Republican candidates in New Hampshire. Why the traditional first two states did not jump the other states in 1996 is still an unanswered question, and honestly I don't know that that provides any window into what the early states might do as a result of the presence of these early, non-binding caucuses early in the calendar in 2012. But it has happened before. However, it was in the frontloaded, not hyper-frontloaded (2000-2008), as FHQ likes to call it, era.

The key with this is not to look to the RNC for answers. They won't have any. The rules don't cover it. Follow the candidates and look to the reactions in the earliest of states; particularly Florida now.

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¹ Below is the email response FHQ received from Maine Republican Party Chairman Charles Webster earlier this week regarding the Pine Tree state Republican caucuses. At this time FHQ cannot confirm the date of the 2012 state convention where the delegate allocation will actually take place.

Charles Webster via davidson.edu to Joshua

The Republican State Committee voted on Saturday to request that all towns in Maine caucus between Feb 4 and Feb 11- 2012.
We will ask that every town notify the State Party by Feb 11 as to their choice for President.
We will announce those results, at a gathering to be held on Saturday Feb 11 at a location to be decided later

________________________________
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2011 16:31:20 -0400
Subject: 2012 Maine Republican Caucuses

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