South Carolina GOP to Weigh in on Presidential Primary Date Monday at 11am

The State (Columbia, SC) is reporting that the South Carolina Republican Party will make known the date of their 2012 presidential primary Monday morning at 11am. Coming on the heels of the Florida move to January 31 and subsequent backlash from representatives from the first four primary and caucus states -- South Carolina included -- the expectation, nay, the foregone conclusion, is that Republicans from the Palmetto state will jump Florida as the party did four years ago. But the question that remains is just how far up the South Carolina Republican Party will move the Palmetto state Republican primary.

Chad Connelly, the South Carolina Republican Party chair, said Thursday -- before the Florida move, but when January 31 was considered a near lock for the Sunshine state primary -- that the party would shift to a point that was ahead of Florida, but that was as late as it could possibly be held. Connelly's 2007 counterpart at the helm of the party, Katon Dawson, allowed ten days between the January 19 South Carolina Republican primary and the January 29 Florida primary. In 2012, though, a full ten day cushion is a result that will get a fair amount of cross-pressure from the Republican National Committee. South Carolina on January 21 pushes Nevada up to January 14 pushes New Hampshire up to January 3 or 10 pushes Iowa up to a date between December 26 and January 2.

Each of the early four states is in the midst of a delicate dance to carve out a calendar position that gives them each a piece of the spotlight and provides them with enough time to bask in it. The spotlight is there, but the time is what is at stake now in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. All four want to avoid a situation where they force any of the other early states into or have to hold contests in December. If the goal is to preserve the early status, those four states have to find a way to work out their differences and schedule their contests in the now-30 day window that Florida has given them.

As fourth in line, South Carolina is the first to move. But how much space between the South Carolina Republican primary and the contest in Florida is enough? Chad Beam at The State has an extremely succinct rundown of the complications in the primary date calculus facing Chair Connelly and his party:

Earlier this week, Connelly said if Florida “pushes us real hard, I’m going to cut them off as close as I can,” scheduling South Carolina’s primary as close as possible before Florida’s primary in an effort to diminish the attention that state’s race gets. In theory, leaving little time between the two primaries, makes it more difficult for a candidate to lose South Carolina and, then, overcome that loss and win Florida.

But it’s a dangerous game.

If Connelly picks a date that is too close to Florida’s Jan. 31 primary, he could force candidates to choose between Florida and South Carolina. And, if he pushes the S.C. date too early into January, then he could push caucuses and primaries in the other early-voting states – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada – into the Christmas holidays.

That notion of being too close to Florida and forcing candidates to choose between the two has to weigh heavily on the decision-making calculus in South Carolina. There are two constraints here. One is that South Carolina wants to go as late as possible, but not too close to Florida. Secondly, South Carolina can push only so far forward without negatively affecting the other three states who have yet to decide. If January 21 is too early and January 28 is the latest possible date that South Carolina could conceivably hold its primary without going on the same date as Florida, then that is the window in which we are looking for possibilities. If the intent is to keep the primary on a Tuesday or a Saturday, then Tuesday, January 24 and Saturday, January 28 are the only real possibilities.

But to find out for sure, check back in here at 11:00 in the morning.

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The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/30/11)

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Nevada to Move Caucuses to January, Date Remains Unsettled

After a Friday night and Saturday flirtation with the idea of holding February caucuses after Florida and remaining in compliance with RNC rules, the Nevada Republican Party Executive Committee Saturday night voted to push the caucuses past the Sunshine state and into January (via Laura Myers at the Las Vegas Review Journal):

"We think the convention has become a bit of a formality," said former Nevada Gov. Robert List, an executive board member who voted to approve the move. "Our nominee will be decided by then. Forfeiting a few delegates is not nearly as important as preserving the very important role Nevada has now as an early voting state." 

Tarkanian held out hope Nevada could work something out with the RNC to allow all of its delegates some role at the convention. 

GOP Committeewoman Heidi Smith was the only member of the executive board who voted against moving the caucuses to January. She said it wasn't worth losing delegates or violating the rules.

Scrap those Nevada in February scenarios and let's get back to the question at hand. While a date for the Nevada Republican caucuses was not set yesterday, the state party chose not to alter the newly enacted rule that links the Republican caucuses in the Silver state with the primary in New Hampshire. That would place the Nevada Republican caucuses on the Saturday following New Hampshire, a violation of New Hampshire state law.

Here again are the likely scenarios:

Option 1 (New Hampshire waits out Nevada and goes 11 days earlier)

Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 2 (Nevada chooses a non-Saturday to hold caucuses)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Tuesday, January 24: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3 (New Hampshire breaks its own law)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3a (New Hampshire opts for a non-Tuesday primary date)

Saturday, January 7: Iowa
Saturday, January 14: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

The final calendar, then, hinges on how the showdown between New Hampshire and Nevada is resolved. History and the mechanics of primary/caucus movement are not on Nevada's side. New Hampshire will not break its own law and the legislature there is unlikely to chance it to accommodate Nevada. The possibility also exists for New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner to set the primary in the Granite state for a day other than Tuesday. That option, however, is a stretch in FHQ's opinion. That is why we list it as a suboption and not a separate scenario of its own. New Hampshire doing anything other than holding a primary at least a week prior to any similar contest just isn't in the cards.

...and Secretary Gardner knows it.

That is why we should all buckle in and prepare for three weeks of "primaries in December" talk. There will not be December primaries or caucuses, but that doesn't mean that we won't hear the threat of New Hampshire breaking the barrier into 2011 from every corner of the Granite state for the next few days and weeks. That threat is the only tool Bill Gardner has left at his disposal as leverage in this dispute with Nevada Republicans. The question is will Nevada Republicans call his bluff.

And it is a bluff. Nothing would threaten Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina and their privileged positions at the front of the calendar more than for one or more of those states to jump into the calendar year prior to the presidential election. Florida has already -- once again -- raised the issue of the inherent in a set of toothless penalties, but a December Iowa caucus or New Hampshire primary would put on the tables at both national parties a deeper reexamination of the rules around the nomination process if not the process itself.

In other words, it would be terribly counterproductive and shortsighted for any of the early states to break the 2011 barrier. It would potentially be a short-term gain, preserving a position that might not exist in future cycles.

Perhaps.

But the focus should not be on Bill Gardner and New Hampshire. Instead, it should be on Nevada and the state Republican Party there. Look no further than Robert List's comments above. Nevada values their new early status. They don't want to lose that. Losing delegates is fine, but losing that spot is not. The December threat is a bluff, but ultimately Nevada will fold.  Time is running out to set a date and Gardner can and will wait to set a date longer than virtually any other state. Iowa may hold out longer, but that's it. Nevada is not on that list. Why? The party still has to organize the caucus process, did not do a solid job of that in 2008 and is off to a slow start for 2012. A shorter run up to the Nevada caucuses is not in the Nevada Republican Party's best interest.

Again, Bill Gardner knows this and will use a steady drumbeat of December New Hampshire primary lines over the next few weeks. That and the backlash from it will likely wear on Nevada Republicans, forcing their hand, and likely triggering a revision of the Nevada Republican party rules to decouple the caucus date from the New Hampshire primary at the already-scheduled October 22 Nevada Republican Party State Central Committee meeting.

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The Nevada GOP Blinks Presidential Primary Calendar Scenario

A day ago FHQ looked at the post-Florida 2012 presidential primary calendar landscape. Contrary to a great many reports about "calendar chaos", FHQ is of the opinion that the Florida decision to hold a January 31 primary was 1) completely predictable and has been throughout much of 2011, and 2) provides calendar watchers with more information. In the case of the latter, with one more threat to the primary calendar officially on the calendar, the number of scenarios for the remaining states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- and the calendar are significantly reduced.

FHQ pegged the number of scenarios left at three or maybe four. Two of those require some give on New Hampshire's end: either breaking a state law that requires seven days between the primary in the Granite state and the next contest or moving the traditionally Tuesday primary to a non-Tuesday. Neither of those are likely. As FHQ noted yesterday, if there is to be any give in the conflict between New Hampshire state election law and Nevada Republican bylaws, it will be the latter.¹

In fact, it looks as if Nevada Republicans are wavering, not because of any looming showdown with New Hampshire but because of Florida and the possibility of losing half of their delegates to jump and stay ahead of Florida. Yesterday's scenario analysis was predicated on the notion that the four "carve out" states would obviously move ahead of Florida. In the case of the Nevada GOP, however, that may not be the case. And as such, another scenario needs to be accounted for: a Nevada Republican caucus behind Florida, sometime in early February.

Here again are the previous scenarios with the new Nevada scenario at the end:

Option 1 (New Hampshire waits out Nevada and goes 11 days earlier)

Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 2 (Nevada chooses a non-Saturday to hold caucuses)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Tuesday, January 24: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3 (New Hampshire breaks its own law)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3a (New Hampshire opts for a non-Tuesday primary date)²

Saturday, January 7: Iowa
Saturday, January 14: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 4 (Nevada Republicans choose to stay in February)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
Saturday, February 4: Nevada

New Hampshire and Iowa get what they want out of that potential calendar alignment, but I don't know that the "three contests in a week" possibility serves South Carolina, Florida and Nevada all that well. The results in South Carolina and Florida would have very little time to resonate before the next contest. We can call that the New Hampshire rule. Allowing for some time between one's primary and the next one to maximize the amount of attention paid to, in this case, New Hampshire is the primary reason state law in the Granite state requires the post-primary seven day buffer. But does that same rule apply or even count in South Carolina and/or Florida? In South Carolina, where there were overtures of coordinating a tandem move with Florida -- one with a similar three day separation between contests -- ahead of Arizona/Michigan in the past, that same buffer is not necessarily required, nor is it necessarily a party of the calculus. That, however, was before Florida made the jump into January, and all bets may now be off on South Carolina's end because of that.

As for the space between Florida and a potential February Nevada Republican caucus, we have to look at Nevada for answers. Florida is locked into January 31, and none of the early states are willing to do Republicans in the Sunshine state any favors. In other words, Florida cannot do anything if other states are considered "too close" to them. Nevada Republicans are the only ones with the ability to make a date change in that relationship -- between Nevada and Florida. Where it might hurt Nevada to go on, say, Saturday, February 4 is that candidates may not focus on Nevada as much as in a situation, alternatively, where Nevada goes on Tuesday, February 7, a week after Florida. That is three more days of attention. Yes, such a move would also put Nevada on the same day as the non-binding caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota, but Nevada would be sharing February 4 with at least some caucuses in Maine as well. With delegates on the line at the precinct level, Nevada would be a bigger draw to the candidates on either date.

What does all of this mean?

Option 5 (Space between South Carolina, Florida and February Nevada is an issue)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 24 or 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
Saturday, February 4 or 7: Nevada

This is the option with suboptions. If the length of time between it and Florida is an issue, South Carolina Republicans can move up as early as February 24 without pushing New Hampshire and Iowa up even further. Nevada will also have an option. They could follow Florida by just four days -- something they were willing enough to change their rules to do in relation to New Hampshire -- or shift back three more days to a week after Florida on February 7.

The Nevada Republican Party Central Committee is set to have another emergency meeting tonight and that may shed some light on all of this. It could also be that the party leaves it unsettled or jumps into January after discussions with the RNC and the other three early states.

--
¹ New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, the one entrusted with the primary date decision in the Granite state, has nine previous cycles proven that he will take a "by any means necessary" approach to retaining the state's first in the nation primary status. Calling Gardner adept at maneuvering New Hampshire through countless calendar shuffles/threats over the years is an understatement.

² We really should call this one the "news media hates the early states" option. All those consecutive Saturday contests would be a bear to cover.

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/30/11)

UPDATE: Final Presidential Primary Calendar Will Not Be Set Until After October 22 ...or maybe earlier

Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/30/11)

Florida and Wisconsin now have official dates on the calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:

Iowa Republicans

New Hampshire

Nevada Republicans

South Carolina Republicans

Missouri Democrats

January 2012

Tuesday, January 31: Florida

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:

Colorado Republican caucuses 

Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (non-binding)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions

Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Georgia
Idaho Republican caucuses 

Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Ohio
Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

Texas 

Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 

Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 17:
Missouri Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 20: 

Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Maryland
Washington, DC
Wisconsin

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses
(through May 5) Florida Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Nebraska

Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas 

Kentucky 

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California
Montana
New Jersey 

New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only) 

Recent Posts:

UPDATE: Final Presidential Primary Calendar Will Not Be Set Until After October 22 ...or maybe earlier

Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

UPDATE: Final Presidential Primary Calendar Will Not Be Set Until After October 22 ...or maybe earlier

UPDATE: Politico's Reid Epstein is reporting this evening that the Nevada GOP is holding an emergency Executive Committee meeting tonight. That obviously changes the outlook of the calendar. Also, it looks like states/state parties are heeding the October 1 deadline, penalty-less though it may be.

Veteran Nevada political reporter, Jon Ralston, tweeted earlier that the Nevada Republican Party was considering a first week in February caucus. That would keep the party's contest compliant -- in February for an exempt state -- and not cost the Nevada GOP half of their 28 delegates. He also just now tweeted that the meeting tonight was not decisive and that the Executive Committee will meet again on deadline day tomorrow.

Here is more from Laura Myers at the Las Vegas Review Journal:

[Nevada GOP chair Amy] Tarkanian said she didn't know what date Nevada might choose, but she wanted to ensure the state holds its caucuses ahead of most states so the date could shift toward Feb. 1.

And on Nevada Democrats:  

The Nevada Democratic Party criticized Florida for disrupting plans by the two main political parties to establish a presidential nominating season designed to make more states count.

"Florida's announcement today risks the integrity and intent of the presidential nominating calendar and is a blatant violation of the rules agreed upon by the national committees of both parties," Party Chairwoman Roberta Lange said Friday in a statement.

Lange also said Nevada Democrats might move up the date of their presidential caucuses to sometime in January in reaction to Florida moving its primary to Jan. 31.

--
Original Post:

Nevada is the new Florida.

Now that Florida is officially on the 2012 presidential primary calendar, all that is left to figure out at the front is where the earliest four exempt states will position their primaries and caucuses. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina now have 30 days in which to fit four nominating contests. As we mentioned earlier today -- post-Florida -- South Carolina is fairly easy to place. The latest possible date South Carolina could and likely will fall on is Saturday, January 28.

But when it comes to the next two pieces in the puzzle -- Nevada and New Hampshire -- have a conflict and it won't/can't be dealt with until October 22 at the earliest. Again, the Nevada Republican Party over the summer changed the rules surrounding the party's precinct caucuses, coupling the scheduling of Silver state Republicans' contest with the scheduling of the New Hampshire primary. The rule calls for the Nevada caucuses to fall on the Saturday following the New Hampshire primary. That creates a conflict with the Granite state. New Hampshire law requires that the primary there be scheduled for a date that is seven days prior to any similar contest.

Something has to give and as I suggested earlier, that give is likely going to come from Nevada's end. New Hampshire would have to change its law or settle for a non-Tuesday election date. Neither of those are likely to happen and Bill Gardner is willing to threaten to take Nevada and Iowa into 2011 as leverage to gain more than four days separation from Nevada. Plus, it is just easier for a party to change a rule than it is for a state legislature/government to change an election law -- especially when it is out of session.

That brings us back to October 22. That is the date on which the Nevada Republican Party Executive Committee meeting will occur according to Karoun Demirjian at the Las Vegas Sun. South Carolina may or may not weigh in before then -- sooner probably rather than later -- but Nevada will not be able to address the conflict with New Hampshire until late October. That, in turn, will impact when New Hampshire and then Iowa will set their dates.

And by that point we will be two months out from the likely start of the primary season.

Recent Posts:

Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

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Wisconsin Presidential Primary to April 3

[Click to Enlarge]

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker today signed SB 115, moving the Badger state presidential primary to April 3 and back into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.

--
Walker's statement on the move:

"Holding Wisconsin's presidential primary election on the same day as the routine spring elections will make the administration of our elections more cost efficient-saving valuable taxpayer dollars," Walker said in a release. "I was pleased to sign a bill into law this morning that received support from Republicans, Democrats and the Legislature's one independent member."

Recent Posts:

Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

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Florida Narrows the Calendar Scenarios to Three

FHQ will skip the hemming and hawing over the Florida Presidential Preference Date Selection Committee decision to schedule the Sunshine state primary for January 31. That is being covered adequately elsewhere. Now that Florida is locked in to a non-compliant date, however, what does it mean for the likely calendar positions Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will adopt? One less state up in the air means there are fewer scenarios that are plausible.

FHQ sees three most likely scenarios and they obviously depend on a couple of things.
1. If South Carolina Republican Party Chair Chad Connelly is to be believed, then South Carolina Republicans will hold a January 28 primary -- the latest possible date that keeps Palmetto state Republicans ahead of Florida.

2. The one thing that will settle how the rest of the calendar looks is what is going to take place between Nevada and New Hampshire. Nevada Republican rules now call for the caucus in the Silver state to be held on the Saturday after the New Hampshire primary. That violates the New Hampshire law calling for a seven day buffer between the Granite state primary and the next contest. Something will have to be worked out and it is likely to favor New Hampshire if only because the New Hampshire General Court (legislature) is not likely to reconvene and change the law. Changing a party rule is much easier at this point.

That leaves three options:
Option 1 (New Hampshire waits out Nevada and goes 11 days earlier)

Monday, January 2: Iowa
Tuesday, January 10: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 2 (Nevada chooses a non-Saturday to hold caucuses)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Tuesday, January 24: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

Option 3 (New Hampshire breaks its own law)

Tuesday, January 10: Iowa (BCS championship on January 9 pushes Iowa to Tuesday)
Tuesday, January 17: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has been pretty clear that Nevada coming on the heels of New Hampshire -- the Saturday after -- is a nonstarter. That all but eliminates Option 3. What is at issue, then, is what Nevada is going to do assuming South Carolina decides on a January 28 primary. Will they go a week earlier than South Carolina, change their tether rule and allow New Hampshire to go eleven days earlier or will Nevada opt to change the rule and hold a weekday -- Tuesday, January 24 perhaps -- caucus? Again, assuming South Carolina ultimately settles on January 28, that Nevada question will be the one to solve the rest of the calendar.

--
UPDATE:
Option 3a (New Hampshire opts for a non-Tuesday primary date)

Saturday, January 7: Iowa 
Saturday, January 14: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 21: Nevada
Saturday, January 28: South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida

This one is 3a and not 4 because New Hampshire making any changes or breaking from the tradition of going on Tuesday is far-fetched. But FHQ should make note of the fact that New Hampshire law does not require Bill Gardner to set the date of the primary on a Tuesday. That likely won't happen, but neither will December primaires.

Recent Posts:

Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

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Florida Presidential Primary to January 31

[Click to Enlarge]

The Florida Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee today selected January 31 as the date of the Florida presidential primary.

Recent Posts:

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/29/11)

Georgia and Missouri Republicans are now officially on the calendar.

[Click to Enlarge]

2012 Presidential Primary Calendar

Yet to decide/be confirmed:

Iowa Republicans

New Hampshire

Nevada Republicans

South Carolina Republicans

Florida

Missouri Democrats

Wisconsin

February 2012

Monday, February 6:

Iowa Democratic caucuses  (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Saturday, February 4:
(through February 11) Maine Republican caucuses 


Tuesday, February 7:

Colorado Republican caucuses 

Minnesota Republican caucuses
Missouri (non-binding)

Saturday, February 18:

Nevada Democratic caucuses (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

Tuesday, February 21:

Wisconsin (bill moving primary to April 3 awaiting gubernatorial action)

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

Michigan (bill keeping primary on February 28 awaiting gubernatorial action)
South Carolina Democratic primary (based on DNC rules and submitted delegate selection plan)

March 2012

Saturday, March 3:
Washington Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Alaska Republican district conventions

Colorado Democratic caucuses 
Georgia
Idaho Republican caucuses 

Massachusetts (active legislation would move primary to June -- unlikely to pass)
Minnesota Democratic caucuses 
North Dakota Republican caucuses

Ohio
Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

Texas 

Vermont
Virginia
(through March 10) Wyoming Republican caucuses

Saturday, March 10: 
Kansas Republican caucuses


Sunday, March 11:
Maine Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, March 13:
Alabama 

Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Utah Democratic caucuses

Saturday, March 17:
Missouri Republican caucuses


Tuesday, March 20: 

Illinois

Saturday, March 24:
Louisiana 

April 2012

Tuesday, April 3:

Maryland
Washington, DC

Saturday, April 7:
Hawaii Democratic caucuses
Wyoming Democratic caucuses

Saturday, April 14:
Idaho Democratic caucuses 
Kansas Democratic caucuses 
Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Sunday, April 15:

Alaska Democratic caucuses
Washington Democratic caucuses

Tuesday, April 24:

Connecticut
Delaware
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island 

May 2012

Saturday, May 5:
Michigan Democratic caucuses


Tuesday, May 8:

Indiana

North Carolina (active legislation would move primary to March 6 -- unlikely to pass)

West Virginia

Tuesday, May 15:

Nebraska

Oregon

Tuesday, May 22:

Arkansas 

Kentucky 

June 2012

Tuesday, June 5:

California
Montana
New Jersey 

New Mexico
North Dakota Democratic caucuses
South Dakota

Tuesday, June 26:
Utah (Republicans only)

Recent Posts:

Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

Georgia Presidential Primary to March 6

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Missouri Republicans Will Caucus on March 17

 [Click to Enlarge]

KY3 in Springfield has the story.

Here is the rundown of the newly defined delegate selection process the Missouri Republican Party will use in 2012:  

*The County Caucuses will take place on March 17, 2012.  At these caucuses, which are open to any Republican who is registered to vote in that county, attendees will select delegates and alternates to the Congressional District Conventions and State Convention.  No delegates to the national convention are selected at this time.  The number of delegates and alternates per county is determined by the Missouri Republican Party based upon the number of GOP votes cast in the last presidential election. 

* The Congressional District Conventions will take place on April 21, 2012.  At each of these 8 conventions, delegates chosen at the county level will select 3 delegates and alternates to the National Convention and 1 presidential elector.  The delegates and alternates will be required to declare allegiance to a candidate prior to the voting, and they will be bound to that candidate on the first ballot—unless they are released prior to the convention. 

*The State Convention will take place on June 2, 2012.  At the convention, delegates chosen at the county level will vote on 26 at-large delegates and alternates to the National Convention and 2 at large presidential electors.  The delegates and alternates will be required to declare allegiance to a candidate prior to the voting, and they will be bound to that candidate on the first ballot—unless they are released prior to the convention.In total, Missouri will have 52 delegates and 49 alternates to the Republican National Convention — 24 selected at the congressional district caucuses, 25 selected at the state convention, and 1 delegate (but no alternate) for the state Party chairman, national committeeman and national committeewoman. 

The ball is definitely in Florida's court now.

--
We'll move the Missouri Democrats to "No Date" for the time being, but FHQ fully expects the party to utilize the municipal ward caucuses already scheduled to begin on March 29. Until that announcement, however, FHQ will keep them as undetermined.

Recent Posts:

In Missouri, Could a Switch to Caucuses Help Avert a January Start to Primary Season?

Georgia Presidential Primary to March 6

The 2012 Presidential Primary Calendar (9/28/11)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.