A Few Thoughts on the Missouri Caucuses

• Rules
• Not a one day caucus: The March 17 caucus date was not one that was universally adopted statewide throughout Missouri. Caucusing began as early as March 13 and will continue until March 24.
• Rules, part two: Jeff Zeleny had a nice piece of reporting in the New York Times yesterday; pointing out that at least one county caucus had adopted an internal rule to bind all of their delegates -- the ones moving on to the next steps of the process -- based on the results of the non-binding primary held in the Show Me state on February 7. That adds a new layer to the process in Missouri.

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Now, FHQ has dealt with the subtleties of a multi-day caucus before, but this new wrinkle of binding delegates moving from one step to the next is something that warrants some attention.¹ First of all, this is an opportunity for Santorum to potentially show some organizational prowess or to at the very least demonstrate that he and his campaign can marshall such an effort. Secondly, this is a shrewd procedural maneuver, whether orchestrated by the Santorum campaign or by forces outside of his campaign passionate about throwing up any and every roadblock to Romney getting to 1144. And honestly, there is nothing in the Missouri Republican Party rules for delegate selection to prevent this. It is a procedural move well within the guidelines of the Robert's Rules for Order. These rules govern not only the Missouri caucuses, but many of the other caucuses as well. There is nothing to prevent someone at a meeting operating under these rules from proposing such a rule -- to bind the delegates -- and another from motioning to have it voted upon. 

And no, this isn't just in Missouri. As mentioned above, most of the other caucus states operate under the Robert's rules. That means that Missouri could be a trial run for similar actions elsewhere. So long as there is nothing in the state party rules on delegate selection specifically prohibiting the binding of delegates and that the vote passes on the rule passes, then there is no reason that this would not or could not happen in other caucus states. 

In truth, many of the caucus state to have held votes already produce unbound delegates at the end of the process. But that is a technicality in a couple of respects. First, if someone has a preexisting candidate preference already, being dubbed "unbound" is next to meaningless. It just means the delegate is free to choose (...the candidate they preferred in the first place). Secondly, since there could be some argument made that the system is supposed to create an unbound delegation, the binding of delegates could be challenged in house -- at the state convention. That could happen, but what the binding in Brunswick County, Missouri demonstrated was that there is a loophole that could be exploited within the caucus system. The Missouri delegation is bound in the end -- unlike, say, Iowa or Colorado -- but what the action Thursday night pointed out was that it is possible potentially to bind delegates at the earlier steps of the process without necessarily binding them at the end of the process. 

...even though, technically, those delegates would have a preference because of the binding filter they had been run through. 

If you, like FHQ, were wondering how Rick Santorum could be reasonably confident on Meet the Press last week that he and his campaign could pick off the majority of unbound delegates in some of these caucus states, then this likely sheds some light on the matter. Santorum had already done well in a great many of these caucuses, so his campaign already had something of an advantage, but this could open the door to procedural/organizational advantage that could aid the campaign in potentially overperforming his straw poll performances. That will take some organization and some ground troops anyway, but this type of procedural move requires only a majority of the voting caucus-goers to bind. 

The only problem is that once word gets out, other campaigns can do the same thing and or organize against such efforts. [UPDATE: It is also a less effective strategy if two other campaigns work together against this or any other effort within the caucuses. Think West Virginia 2008.]

Getting all the unbound delegates doesn't get Santorum to 1144, but it would help him close on Romney in the delegate count and prop him up at a contested convention; the only play they have at this point. This bears watching. 

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¹ The basic take home is that multi-day events have the potential to expose one group of voters to an external political shock to which those who have already voted would not be exposed. In other words, there is not a constant political climate; it is ever-changing. The same has been said of early voting. 

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Unbound vs. Unpledged Delegates

On the State of the Republican Nomination Race, Post-AL/MS

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Puerto Rico

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Unbound vs. Unpledged Delegates

FHQ has recently received a fair number of requests from a variety folks to explain the subtle differences between unbound and unpledged delegates in the current Republican nomination race. The short answer is that the two distinctions are often one and the same. FHQ is fond of saying that the delegates emerging from most of the non-binding (straw poll) caucus states are unbound at the end of the process (post-state convention). Similarly, the majority of automatic delegates are unbound.

But some from each group are both unbound and unpledged.

What separates the two?

The first layer of this is to define an unbound delegate relative to a bound delegate. This is pretty easy. Either a delegate selected is bound according to the results of any given primary or caucus or they are not. Now, FHQ has gone into the variety of rules regarding how delegates can be bound, but let's shunt that to the side for this exercise. If a state or state party binds its delegates through a written or verbal oath, then that delegate is locked into a particular candidate through -- in most cases -- the first ballot at the convention based on the results of the primary or caucus.¹ Unbound delegates, though, are free to choose -- to pledge their support to -- any candidate they prefer.

The best examples to illustrate this are the automatic delegates. Those three RNC delegates that each state has are unbound according to the RNC rules unless the state party rules bind them. Most states leave the automatic delegates unbound, but some, like Georgia, for instance, bind the automatic delegates to, in their case, the winner of the statewide vote. For our purposes, let's focus on those automatic delegates who are left unbound based on the combination of national and state party rules. If any of those unbound delegates endorse a candidate -- as over 30 automatic delegates have done in endorsing Mitt Romney -- then they are pledging but not necessarily binding themselves to that candidate. There is nothing binding about the action, but the automatic delegate has come out in support of a particular candidate and, truth be told, can change his or her mind at any time before the convention vote(s).

That leaves us with a couple of possible categories of delegates:

1. Unbound, unpledged delegates: These are the automatic delegates who are not bound as described above and who have not endorsed a candidate. They don't have to be automatic delegates, but these are the only delegates who have qualified for this distinction at this time. The congressional district and at-large delegates in non-binding caucus states have yet to actually be selected yet. Their slots are, I suppose, unbound and unpledged if we are doing the proper accounting here, but the selected/elected delegates at the end of the process will only definitely come out of said process officially unbound, but not necessarily unpledged. There is a reason the Santorum strategy memo emphasized his ability to win over -- the pledges of -- unbound delegates.
2. Pledged, unbound delegates: These are the automatic delegates who are not bound as described above, but who have endorsed a candidate in the race for the Republican nomination. [See the above caveat on not-yet-selected delegates in non-binding caucus states.]

It is impossible for a delegate to be both bound and unpledged because a bound delegate is by the rules a pledged delegate.

...pledged whether they like or not.

That's why we hear so much about making it through that first ballot from the not-Romney campaigns. If no candidate has the 1144 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination at the convention on the first ballot then a great many of those bound delegates become unbound but not necessarily unpledged delegates.

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¹ In some states the threshold for releasing delegates from the binding mechanism is greater than one ballot. The majority of states/state parties set the threshold at just one ballot though.


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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Puerto Rico

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Hawaii

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

On the State of the Republican Nomination Race, Post-AL/MS

A few lingering thoughts from the aftermath of Tuesday night's/Wednesday morning's contests in Alabama, American Samoa, Hawaii and Mississippi:

1. Any day Santorum doesn't cut into Romney's delegate lead is an opportunity lost. 
2. Any day Romney doesn't grow his delegate lead is an opportunity lost.
3. Momentum is dead. ...until it isn't.
4. In-or-out Newt?

The story on Wednesday was the same story as the Wednesday following Super Tuesday. Delegates were on the line and no one cut into Mitt Romney's delegate advantage, but Romney also failed to break through once again in the South. FHQ has not pulled any punches in saying that Santorum has no mathematical shot at 1144 if the current dynamic in this race is extended through the rest of the race. None. But as I have also pointed out, that fact alone does not mean that Romney is a shoo in to get to a delegate majority himself.

I won't belabor the point in #1 above anymore as it is fairly obvious, but #2 deserves some attention.  Any series of contests that passes where Mitt Romney does not significantly increase his delegate lead -- inching closer to 1144 -- removes from the former Massachusetts governor another passel of delegates that a larger portion of which would serve as cushion for a solid frontrunner. Put another way, any time Romney is not hitting that seemingly magic number of 48% of the delegates, his campaign's job of getting him to the requisite number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination gets slightly more difficult.

So, on Tuesday, Romney gained but he didn't gain. He added to his lead in the delegate count but did not necessarily help his chances of getting to the goal of 1144.

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What we all witnessed Tuesday night was not momentum. There is no momentum in this race. Deep South voters did not exactly reject the notion of a Gingrich candidacy and they didn't exactly fully embrace Santorum (or Romney for that matter) either. The two candidates who would be expected to do well in the South did so well in the South. The presidential primary process in 2012 has progressed far enough now that we have a fair amount of data at our disposal. This is oversimplifying matters, but Mitt Romney is likely to do well in the west and in the northeast, Santorum has carved out a stronghold in the prairie states and stretching into the South and Newt Gingrich has been reduced to a niche southern candidate who is trying to play delegate spoiler.

No, Romney has still not answered the "Southern question" and he isn't likely to (at least not until maybe North Carolina at the earliest¹). But the take home here is that this is all rather predictable based on the regional alignment described above. We can kind of eyeball it and say that Santorum is likely to do well in Missouri and Louisiana later in March and that Maryland, DC, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut are states where Mitt Romney would be expected to do well. And that is the way the race has been. The volatile "swings" have not been all that volatile. Heck, they haven't really been swings so much as the establishment of a pattern in this race. There will only be momentum in this race when and if someone wins, and probably wins consistently thereafter, on another candidate's turf.

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If you read closely enough, you will have already noted that FHQ made no mention of either the Rust Belt or the midwest. That is because that is the only area where the predictable is not all that predictable. Santorum has come close twice now to beating Romney on Romney turf, but failed to break through in either Michigan or Ohio. Illinois (March 20), Wisconsin (April 3) and Pennsylvania (April 24) offer Santorum an opportunity to change that.²

What potentially shakes all of this up is the presence or absence of Newt Gingrich in the race. If Gingrich is not in the game in Michigan or Ohio, it is not a stretch to see the overall balance shifting toward Santorum in those states. [I know. The Santorum campaign has been making this claim for weeks.] And that could be an issue again in Illinois or Wisconsin, where something like a second conservative candidate not being on the ballot could benefit the other conservative candidate if that candidate (Santorum) is close again against Romney in the popular vote.

The Gingrich impact is more black and white in states that look to be close, but outside of the Rust Belt, the former speaker's influence is more nuanced. Does that help/hurt Romney or Santorum? Well, that all depends on what the delegate selection rules are on the state level. To the extent that Gingrich is able to clear the necessary threshold in the popular vote to qualify for delegates, he is likely to hurt Romney/help Santorum (by hurting Romney) by peeling off delegates in proportional states. But in the few remaining (strictly) winner-take-all states and the winner-take-all by congressional district states, Gingrich's presence is likely to help Romney/hurt Santorum. Coming in third over and over again does nothing for Gingrich in those states. It nets him no delegates. But coming in third siphons off votes and potentially delegates from Santorum, helping Romney to gain delegates at a healthier clip.

...if Romney is presumably the one in the lead in that three candidate scenario.

Now, if Gingrich is out of the race, it does not necessarily reverse those trends above, but may in some cases. If Gingrich is out then the proportional state delegates are allocated among just two candidates. That is a plus for Romney and Santorum. It gets Romney closer to 1144 and Santorum closer to Romney if he is the beneficiary of a consolidation of the conservative vote and thus the delegate winner. You can see this more in a state like North Carolina than in a state like Rhode Island though; both of which are strictly proportional. In the winner-take-all by congressional district states, Santorum is again potentially able to take advantage of that consolidation to win some or more districts in states like Maryland or Wisconsin, but while still facing the possibility of losing the statewide vote and the at-large delegates in the process. [The bonus there is that quite a few of these winner-take-all by congressional district states are fairly blue and thus have a limited number of at-large delegates. Losing them, then, is not a killer if you are Rick Santorum.]

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The bottom line is that this race is clearer now. We know where the candidates' strengths are now and where the true battlegrounds lie. We know that to settle this even further is going to take candidates winning on the others' turf. [This is more necessary for Santorum/Gingrich than for Romney.] We know that, right now, the only strategy Santorum and Gingrich have -- absent the sort of "winning on the other guy's turf" shake up described above -- is to keep Romney under 1144, sending this to the convention. We know that "keep Romney under 1144" is a suitable strategy when the candidate promoting it is winning, but is bound to be much less effective if they are not (and by extension someone is moving toward 1144). We know that Missouri and Louisiana are good targets for Santorum. We know that much of April shapes up well for Mitt Romney. We know that absent any shake up Romney is on track to get not only the most delegates but to get at or around the 1144 mark.

What we don't know is if Santorum can break through on Romney's turf. Illinois would be a good place to start. Otherwise time is -- and delegates are -- running out.

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¹ North Carolina represents the last best hope more than likely for Romney to break through and avoid being the only potential Republican nominee to have been swept in the South during the primaries.

² Yes, the homestate advantage Santorum has in Pennsylvania might offset -- or more than offset -- what might be a slight Romney advantage in a state like the Keystone state.


Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Puerto Rico

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Hawaii

About that Santorum Campaign Delegate Strategy Memo

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Puerto Rico

This is the twenty-fourth in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


PUERTO RICO

This seems to be a running theme in the last few of these glances at state-level delegate allocation, but the RNC memo released in December gave the wrong impression of the delegate allocation in Puerto Rico. That document indicated that the Atlantic island US commonwealth would be allocating its delegates winner-take-all. Well, that set off a whole host of "But Puerto Rico is scheduled to hold its primary before April 1. How are they winner-take-all and not penalized?" questions.

The answer is simple: no violation, no penalty. Puerto Rico is conditionally winner-take-all/proportional.² Depending on whether a candidate receives a majority of the vote across the island in the primary, the winning candidate will receive either all of the island's at-large delegates or divide them proportionally with any other candidate receiving over 15% of the vote. If, then, a candidate wins a majority, he will be allocated all 20 at-large delegates. If not, then the allocation is proportional. Easy enough, right?

Puerto Rico delegate breakdown:

• 23 total delegates
• 20 at-large delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

The three automatic delegates are free to endorse or pledge to any candidate of their choice. Thus far, both Mitt Romney has claimed endorsements from two Puerto Rico automatic delegates and Newt Gingrich one each.

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¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

² Here is the relevant section of the Puerto Rico Republican Party delegate selection rules that FHQ has received on background:

• All twenty (20) delegates and twenty (20) alternate delegates from Puerto Rico are delegates at large.

• Each candidate for President shall be awarded at-large delegates from Puerto Rico authorized by the Republican National Committee proportionately, according to the ratio of votes they received to the total votes cast on an islandwide basis. Provided however, no delegates shall be awarded to any candidate for President receiving less than fifteen percent (15%) of the vote, and such votes shall be allocated among the other candidates in proportion to their total vote. If one candidate for President receives a majority (50%) of the total islandwide votes cast, then that candidate shall be awarded all at-large delegates from Puerto Rico.

Recent Posts:
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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Mississippi

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Hawaii

This is the twenty-third in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


HAWAII

Hawaii, like Mississippi, is another state where the RNC memo on state-by-state delegate allocation is somewhat misleading. At the very least, that December memo left several things unsaid while making it appear as if Hawaii was a state that allocates its delegates proportionally. The Aloha Republicans do use a proportional forumla, but with some caveats.

Hawaii delegate breakdown:

• 20 total delegates
• 11 at-large delegates
• 6 congressional district delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

Right off the bat, FHQ should note a couple of things:

1. There is no conditionality to the allocation of the delegates in Hawaii. Even if one candidate receives a majority of the vote, the delegate allocation will remain proportional.
2. Though the RNC memo cited above indicates that there is a 15% threshold for receiving delegates, there is nothing in the Hawaii rules on delegate allocation signaling that that is in fact the case.² With the threshold the allocation looks a lot like Mississippi. Without the threshold, Hawaii looks like a cross between Mississippi (congressional district delegates) and Alaska (proportional caucus state with no threshold).  

At-large allocation: With the above notes in mind, the allocation of the 11 at-large delegates will either be proportional to all candidates or proportional to all candidates over 15% of the vote statewide. That distinction may make some differences but only at the margins and mostly only for any candidate(s) who does (do) not receive over 15% of the vote. Plus, all that we are really talking about here is 11 delegates divided up among two or three or four candidates. The key to remember here is that the allocation is done in descending order starting with the top vote-getter and moving down the line. In other words, the statewide winner will have his delegate total rounded up to the nearest whole number and so on until all of the delegates are allocated. For example (alphabetically) we could simulate the delegate allocation based on the following results (assuming no 15% threshold)³:

Vote Share:
Gingrich: 27%
Paul: 26%
Romney: 24%
Santorum: 23%

Delegates:
Gingrich: 2.97
Paul: 2.86
Romney: 2.64
Santorum: 2.53

This ends up being a nice, fictitious example because all of the candidates would theoretically round up to three delegates. But there are not 12 at-large delegates to allocate; only 11. Again, in descending order, then, Gingrich would round up to three delegates, then Paul would round up to three delegates, then Romney would round up to three delegates and Santorum would receive the final two delegates available. In that scenario, despite being above half a delegate, Santorum could not round up to the next highest number according to the Hawaii rules.

Congressional district allocation: As is the case in most states, there are three delegates apportioned to each of the two congressional districts in Hawaii. Those three delegates will be allocated proportionally as well. But recall that it is unclear whether there is a 15% threshold in place in Hawaii. That matters at the margins here because depending on how many candidates surpass that barrier, it may make the the difference between some candidate receiving delegates or not. [But it appears that there is no threshold. See note 3 below.] This means that unless a candidate receives a majority of the votes within a congressional district, then no one will receive over one delegate per congressional district. In other words, if no one is over 50% then the top three vote-getters will be allocated one delegate each. If a candidate is able to get a majority on the congressional district level, then their delegate total will round up to two delegates. But at the end of the day, all we're talking about are 6 delegates. No one is likely to take a huge margin out of these districts, much less the entire state, without a fairly broad victory.

Automatic delegate allocation: All three Hawaii automatic delegates are unbound and unaffected by tonight's results. They are all free to endorse or pledge to whichever candidate they choose.

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¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

² Hawaii Republican Party delegate selection rules (sections 214-216):
Hawaii Republican Party Rules-2011
³ A new RNC blog post out this afternoon seems to indicate that there is no 15% threshold for wither at-large or congressional district delegates.

Recent Posts:
About that Santorum Campaign Delegate Strategy Memo

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Mississippi

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Alabama

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

About that Santorum Campaign Delegate Strategy Memo

FHQ got several requests yesterday to comment on the memo outlining the delegate strategy that Politico posted yesterday from the Santorum campaign. Most of those discussions were via phone, but I did exchange emails with Pema Levy at TPM (see her story here) on the matter and here is the long form version of my back of the napkin response:

There is both fact and fiction in the Santorum memo. 

First of all, even when I was generous to Santorum and assumed that he got 50% of the vote the rest of the way (both statewide and in the congressional districts) and gave him all of the unbound delegates, he just barely got over 1144 (see here).¹ And that particular dynamic just isn't going to happen. I get their point about winning unbound caucus state delegates at the state conventions, but they are likely overstating just how many delegates Santorum will be able to claim. 

Secondly, they are just plain wrong about the April 3 contests. DC is winner-take-all (and Santorum is not on the ballot there), but Maryland and Wisconsin are both winner-take-all by congressional district. As we saw in a similar case in South Carolina, even a sweeping victory like Gingrich's there did not net him all of the delegates in the Palmetto state. Romney won a congressional district. Theoretically, a candidate could win all of the delegates from those states, but it would take a win that Santorum is unlikely to get.² [What's funny is that California should later be considered winner-take-all as well according to the Santorum campaign definition. It is also winner-take-all by congressional district.] 

This whole strategy is predicated on the race going to the convention. But it is going to be tough for Santorum and Gingrich to only argue that Romney shouldn't get to 1144 (to their supporters and donors) as Romney is likely to keep growing his delegate advantage and inch closer and closer to 1144. That is an easy argument to make when you have possible wins ahead of you in Mississippi or Alabama, but doesn't hold water when your candidate is losing throughout April. 

This memo is very casual with the discussion of delegates being elected at state conventions. Their claim is more valid in caucus states where the delegates will not be bound, but they fail to adequately -- in my eyes at least -- mention that the delegates elected at conventions in primary states (and some caucus states) are bound according to the results of the primary. 

Finally, the memo is big on telling everyone that Santorum will do well in particular states without telling us very much about how they will ultimately make that happen. The contention that Romney will not necessarily do well in the northeastern states on April 24 because of past precedent is particularly puzzling. Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island were all Super Tuesday states in February 2008 and McCain won them all.
The fact that they seemingly don't fully understand the rules (see Maryland/Wisconsin claim above), are organizing on the fly and aren't (fully) on the ballot in some additional states gives me pause about the effectiveness of this particular strategy. 

They are absolutely correct to question the Romney team's ability to get their candidate to 1144, but Santorum's argument is only going to work as long as he is winning and cutting into Romney's lead. If Romney does well in April, then the task becomes all but impossible for Santorum. Romney winning and approaching 1144 is not a good environment in which to make a "keep Romney from 1144" argument. That may serve as the tipping point in this race.

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Now, I completely understand the Santorum campaign argument that the former Pennsylvania senator is the passion candidate in this race and that they are trying to portray Romney as the moderate, monied candidate. This is the classic heart versus mind discussion that has been going on within the Republican Party since late one early November night in 2008. But to attempt to substitute that particular narrative for the Romney delegate math storyline in this race is very reminiscent of the Clinton campaign effort to push back against the Obama inevitability narrative as well (see here). The bottom line is that it all comes back to the math and the Santorum campaign is up against it on that one.

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¹ The Gingrich delegate angle is one I hadn't considered, but I wouldn't safely count on those delegates if I were in the Santorum camp.

² And to be fair, Romney is not necessarily likely to have that sort of victory in either of those states either.


Recent Posts:
2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Mississippi

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Alabama

Race to 1144: Super Tuesday, Kansas/Territories

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Mississippi

This is the twenty-second in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


MISSISSIPPI

Contrary to how the December RNC memo on delegate allocation by state described it, Mississippi is not exactly proportional.² Well, it is, but not in the same way that all of the delegates from New Hampshire or Massachusetts were. Instead, the formula is slightly more complicated. First, what's at state in the Magnolia state on Tuesday?

Mississippi delegate breakdown:

• 40 total delegates
• 25 at-large delegates
• 12 congressional district delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

At-large allocation: The 25 at-large delegates are all allocated to the winner of the statewide vote if that  candidate receives a majority of the vote. If no candidate clears the 50% barrier, then the allocation is proportional to those candidates who have received over 15% of the vote.

Notes: As was/will be the case in Alabama, this means that a close race -- like the tight three way race that the polling in the state seems to indicate -- yields a near even allocation of at-large delegates among Gingrich, Romney and Santorum. Again, this would greatly resemble what we witnessed in Oklahoma. 

Congressional district allocation: The three congressional district delegates per each of the four Mississippi districts are also allocated winner-take-all if one candidate is able to garner a majority of the vote. Now, if no candidate clears the 50% mark is where this gets interesting -- especially in light of a potentially tight three way race. With no one over the majority point and with three candidates likely over the 15% threshold, none of the three candidates is going to be mathematically able to gain enough separation to round up to more than one delegate. In a race with three candidates over 15% within any one of the congressional districts, one candidate would have to get over half of the vote to even round up to two delegates. And of course, at that level, a candidate would receive all three delegates. In all likelihood, a candidate will have to clear the 20% mark within a congressional district to be able to round up to one full delegate; particularly if that candidate is in third place.

Notes: Mississippi, then, ends up looking an awful lot like Oklahoma (...on the condition that the vote mirrors the recent polling in the state. That is anything but a certainty.): a proportional allocation of the at-large delegates and an evenly distributed allocation of the three congressional district delegates to the three candidates over 15%. But on the congressional district level there may be some measure of variation across districts that may alter the possibility of one district delegate per candidate pattern.

Automatic delegate allocation: The three automatic delegates -- as is the case with most of them across the country -- are free to endorse or pledge themselves to a candidate of their choosing. In Mississippi, one automatic delegate has already endorsed Mitt Romney.

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¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

² Mississippi Republican Party delegate allocation rules:
2012 Mississippi Republican Delegate Allocation Rules

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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Alabama

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About that RNC Delegate Count...

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2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Alabama

This is the twenty-first in a multipart series of posts that will examine the Republican delegate allocation by state.¹ The main goal of this exercise is to assess the rules for 2012 -- especially relative to 2008 -- in order to gauge the impact the changes to the rules along the winner-take-all/proportionality spectrum may have on the race for the Republican nomination. As FHQ has argued in the past, this has often been cast as a black and white change. That the RNC has winner-take-all rules and the Democrats have proportional rules. Beyond that, the changes have been wrongly interpreted in a great many cases as having made a 180º change from straight winner-take-all to straight proportional rules in all pre-April 1 primary and caucus states. That is not the case. 

The new requirement has been adopted in a number of different ways across the states. Some have moved to a conditional system where winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon one candidate receiving 50% or more of the vote and others have responded by making just the usually small sliver of a state's delegate apportionment from the national party -- at-large delegates -- proportional as mandated by the party. Those are just two examples. There are other variations in between that also allow state parties to comply with the rules. FHQ has long argued that the effect of this change would be to lengthen the process. However, the extent of the changes from four years ago is not as great as has been interpreted and points to the spacing of the 2012 primary calendar -- and how that interacts with the ongoing campaign -- being a much larger factor in the accumulation of delegates (Again, especially relative to the 2008 calendar).

For links to the other states' plans see the Republican Delegate Selection Plans by State section in the left sidebar under the calendar.


ALABAMA

Truth be told, FHQ has already examined the Alabama Republican Party delegate allocation rules.² But for the sake of refreshing our collective memories, let's review and with a compare and contrast:

Alabama delegate breakdown:

• 50 total delegates
• 26 at-large delegates
• 21 congressional district delegates
• 3 automatic delegates

At-large allocation: If one candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, then that candidate is entitled to all 26 at-large delegates, otherwise the allocation is proportional to all candidates over 20% of the vote.

Notes: This is like the at-large allocation in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday with the exception that the threshold for receiving delegates in the Sooner state was 15% and not 20%.

Congressional district allocation: If a candidate receives a majority of the vote in any one of the seven congressional districts in Alabama, that candidate is allocated all three delegates from that district. However, if no candidate receives a majority, the top vote-getter receives two delegates while the runner-up receives one. Should only one candidate break the 20% barrier within the district, that candidate is entitled to all three delegates from that district.

Notes: Keep Oklahoma in mind for a moment. The congressional district allocation in Alabama is most akin to the allocation in Georgia on Super Tuesday. The difference is that while Georgia was a two person race across most of the state -- when Gingrich failed to receive a majority of the vote, he most often split the allocation with Romney and not Santorum -- Alabama is shaping up to be a three person race according to the polls. Now, the polls in some of these Deep South states should be taken with a grain of salt given historical precedent. But if the race ends up being the dead heat it looks to be, then the delegate allocation could end up being a little quirky because the dynamics of the congressional district allocation. While the allocation in Oklahoma granted each candidate over 15% of the vote within the congressional district one delegate each (something that happened in each of the five districts in the Sooner state), depending on how the Alabama vote breaks down within each congressional district could offset any edge gained in the at-large allocation if the statewide winner wins by a small margin. Due to the current optics of this primary, the delegate allocation could be as tight as it was in Oklahoma or the margin could shift toward the statewide winner (depending on the votes by congressional district).

Automatic allocation: Easy enough. The three automatic delegates are unbound and free to choose whomever they please. One of the three Alabama automatic delegates has already endorsed Rick Santorum.

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¹ FHQ would say 50 part, but that doesn't count the territories and Washington, DC.

² The following is the delegate selection plan the Alabama Republican Party publicly released in August 2011:
2012.al.gop.pres.primary.rules

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Race to 1144: Super Tuesday, Kansas/Territories

About that RNC Delegate Count...

2012 Republican Delegate Allocation: Kansas

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Race to 1144: Super Tuesday, Kansas/Territories

Source:
Contest Delegates (via contest results and rules, and RNC, Georgia Secretary of State)
Automatic Delegates (Democratic Convention Watch)

Delegate breakdown (post-Super Tuesday, Kansas/Territories):    

Notes:
1) The allocation of the delegates in Georgia is based on the most recent vote returns published online by the office of the Georgia Secretary of State. The allocation here differs from the RNC allocation in Georgia. The above grants Gingrich two additional delegates (which have been taken from Romney's total).

2) The Tennessee primary results by congressional district have not been released by the Tennessee Republican Party. The allocation above is based on the RNC interpretation of the allocation.

3) Take note of the fact that both the percentage of total bound delegates and percentage of delegates needed to clinch the nomination have been added to the table for each candidate.

4) Iowa Republican Party Chairman Spiker was a part of the Paul campaign in Iowa and resigned his position upon taking up the post of party chair. While he has expressed his intent to side with whomever the Republican nominee will be, Spiker has not also directly signaled any neutrality in the race. The door is open for his support of Paul at a potential contested convention. While FHQ includes Spiker in Paul's delegate total, it is necessary to make note of the possible future subtraction of one delegate that would bring the Texas congressman's total to 23.


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About that RNC Delegate Count...

Now, FHQ makes no bones about it: We are no fans of the Associated Press delegate projection. Yeah, that's right. I said it. The AP has a projection of delegates; not a count. The distinction is important if we are to accurately count the number of delegates allocated to each candidate. What the AP is doing is taking delegates bound to candidates (but not, truth be told, actually allocated yet) by the primaries and a handful of binding caucuses thus far and adding on top of that total a fantasy proportional allocation of delegates in the non-binding caucus states.¹

But enough AP bashing.

You will also notice that FHQ has yet to update its delegate count to include the numbers from Super Tuesday. That is equal parts slow wading through the results and waiting on the RNC delegate count which FHQ uses as a kind of baseline check on our count. Now that the RNC count is out though, I take issue with some of their count based on the numbers I have. Overall they have:

Romney: 339
Gingrich: 107
Santorum: 95
Paul: 22 

But the issues:

1. No one -- or very few anyway -- have access to the Tennessee numbers; particularly the results by congressional district. The Tennessee secretary of state did not tabulate the vote by congressional districts. Well, they tabulated the delegate elections by congressional districts but not the topline presidential preference vote. It was the Tennessee Republican Party that did that tabulation, and they aren't releasing the numbers until the vote is certified or close to certified. TNGOP asked me to call back on Monday or Tuesday to check on their progress. [Note to self: Be more persistent next time. And hey, don't they know who I am? That ridiculously nitpicky delegate counter.] So we are all kind of taking AP's or the RNC's word on this one. And yes, FHQ is fully aware of the fact that the TNGOP is way more likely to share their results with the national party than FHQ. The Tennessee results are a minor point but still worth noting.
2. There is a discrepancy between the RNC count of the county delegates allocated thus far in Wyoming and what is being reported in the Equality state. The RNC says Romney has won three delegates, Paul one and that one other delegate will head to the convention uncommitted. But six counties have elected delegates thus far and as the Casper Star-Tribune reports Romney has received four with Paul at one and the remaining delegate uncommitted.² 
3. Finally, FHQ has done the math at least three times now for Georgia based on the results currently being reported by the secretary of state's office in the Peach state. FHQ has Gingrich with 47% of the vote pulling in 20 of the proportionally allocated 31 at-large delegates and Romney with the remaining 11 as the only other candidate over the 20% threshold to receive delegates. Gingrich by virtue of his statewide win is also entitled to the three Georgia automatic delegates. In the congressional count, Gingrich won 12 of the 14 districts (5 of them with a majority of the vote). That nets Gingrich 31 of the 42 district delegates. Romney won the two remaining congressional districts (but not with a majority) and placed second (worth one delegate) in four other districts. Santorum placed second in three districts which would have gotten him three delegates.

If you have been adding these up that yields:
Gingrich: 54
Romney: 19
Santorum: 3

But the RNC has the count at:
Gingrich: 52
Romney: 21
Santorum: 3

It is worth pointing out that while the Georgia secretary of state is reporting all of the precincts in, only 99% of the votes are in. Now that is likely provisional ballots that are still outstanding. FHQ has no indication of how many of those votes are out. But the thing is that nothing in the reported results indicates that Gingrich and Romney are all that close in a district or statewide to warrant a two delegate swing anywhere. It is curious.

All told, FHQ now has problems with the AP projection and the RNC count. Again, the RNC has the preferred method in our neck of the woods, but they seem to be off a little -- at least based on the information FHQ has access to. Pushing aside the Tennessee issue -- until the count can be adequately dealt with -- the RNC count would need to be adjusted:

Romney: 339 (+1 Wyoming, -2 Georgia) = 338

Gingrich: 107 (+2 Georgia) = 109

Santorum: 95

Paul: 22 

I know what you're saying. C'mon FHQ! We're talking about three delegates here. True, but if we're all going to attempt to be accurate with this, then we need to be accurate.

...not partially accurate. 

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¹ And then there is the AP's contention that the Santorum win in Minnesota was enough to warrant a winner-take-all allocation of its 37 delegates. Don't get me started on the logic of that decision. Suffice it to say, there is nothing in Minnesota Republican Party rules that indicates any such allocation based on the precinct caucuses.

² The remaining six county delegates will be chosen on March 10 in Wyoming. 

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