Saturday, July 28, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/28/12)

There were some leftovers from Friday:

New State Polls (7/28/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
North Dakota
7/24-7/26
+/- 4.9%
400 likely voters
35
54
12
(includes "other" responses)
+19
+16.46
Ohio
7/23-7/24
+/- 4.01%
597 likely voters
45
43
3
+2
+3.95

Polling Quick Hits:
North Dakota:
What a difference four years makes. At this point in 2008, North Dakota was a toss up state by FHQ's measure; closer than eventual blue states Florida, Indiana and North Carolina.1 That is either an indictment of the methodology or a cautionary tale about placing too much faith in the predictive power of polls conducted during or before July. Given how things ended up in November, I am comfortable saying it was the latter. The 2008 polling of the Peace Garden state up to July showed a race in the low to mid-single digits (in both directions: Obama & McCain).

North Dakota ultimately ended up in the McCain column in November, but the Arizona senator's advantage in vote share was just less than 9 points. In July that would have been a Lean McCain state.  In 2012, Romney's advantage -- according to FHQ's weighted average -- is about eight points greater than the Republican vote share in 2008 and more than 15 points greater than the simple average of polls at this point in the race in 2008. North Dakota is firmly on Romney's side of the ledger.

Ohio:
I said quite a bit about Ohio yesterday, so I'll keep it brief here. This Magellan poll at +2 Obama is probably a better snapshot of the Buckeye state than the +8 Obama We Ask American survey. It is closer to the FHQ weighted average anyway. In the terms of yesterday's discussion, the Magellan poll finds Obama at the very bottom of this Ohio range and Romney right in the middle of his more widely dispersed set of poll points. Look, Ohio is going to be right there as a potential tipping point state unless something comes along to fundamentally alter the outlook of this race. A Portman selection as Romney's running mate would change things, but probably not enough to consider that the type of fundamental shift to which I'm referring. But it would have an effect.



Neither poll did enough to the weighted averages in either state to change the electoral college map. The Electoral College Spectrum saw North Dakota switch places with Mississippi, but that is more a cosmetic change than a consequential one. Again, North Dakota is a Romney state and that isn't going to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
AZ-11
(181)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
TN-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The We Ask American Ohio poll put the Buckeye state on the Watch List, but the Magellan poll recalibrated the weighted average just enough to pull it back off again. Other than that the list remains unchanged.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Please see:

--
1 Note that the July 30 electoral college post in 2008 is when the at that point yet to be named -- or fully formed for that matter -- Electoral College Spectrum made its first appearance. 


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Friday, July 27, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/27/12)

FHQ most often takes a micro view of presidential elections. And while here are regular attempts to couch state-level dynamics in broader terms, I cannot help but feel the macro view can get lost in a sea of commentary on the context -- or (lack of) impact -- of individual polls. While there were a couple of new surveys out today from two seemingly consequential states in the race for electoral votes, the real news was the release of the first estimate of second quarter economic growth. Polls go up and polls go down over almost any interval, but a presidential election can often be boiled down to fundamentals like presidential approval and/or the state of the economy. And the state of the economy at the conclusion of the second quarter has typically been a pretty good indicator of the fate of the incumbent (or incumbent party in the White House).

The FHQ weighted averages currently show Obama with a fairly significant lead when they are filtered through the electoral college and quantified in that way. But a 1.5% rate of GDP growth does not necessarily jibe well with that conclusion. In fact, the shrinking level of growth portends a very close election. [See graphic and discussion from Seth Masket for more.] That is not all that different from the outlook most who construct and look at political science elections forecasts had before the numbers were released, but now we're able to plug in a pretty reliable indicator of incumbent party/candidate success in the general election into a parsimonious model and project the impact.

As I have stated before, the electoral vote totals are here and updated daily (no change in the tally through two weeks of updates), but we really should not be focusing too heavily on those yet. The handful of toss up states that are on the board tilt ever so slightly toward Obama at the moment. That can and will likely change over time. But a close election in terms of the popular vote does not necessarily translate into a close outcome in the electoral college as in 2000 or 2004. Look no further than 1960 for an example. But 2012 isn't quite that close.

...yet.

New State Polls (7/27/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Ohio
7/24
+/- 3%
1115 likely voters
47.84
40.20
9.93
+7.64
+4.09
Wisconsin
7/25
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
49
46
4
+3
+5.98

Polling Quick Hits:
Ohio:
I snarkily said that not even the Priorities USA survey in Florida showed as sizable a margin as the Survey USA poll released late last week in the Sunshine state. [That probably isn't fair to Garin, Hart and Yang -- the polling group that surveyed Florida on behalf of the Democratic-aligned group.] However, the same comment can be used on the new We Ask America survey of Ohio. Not even the June Priorities USA poll of the Buckeye state showed as wide a margin there as the +8 advantage WAA found for Obama.

We should expect variability from poll to poll. Period. This poll is in the same direction as all the polling conducted in Ohio through June and July and joins a handful of other surveys that show a wider Obama lead. The key here at Nate Cohn I think accurately stated (via Twitter) is that Ohio is more about Romney losing ground than Obama gaining. And that's right. Obama has consistently landed in the 45-50% range in Ohio polling. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has had a range twice as large, bouncing around between 38-48%. Most polls find the former Massachusetts governor in the mid- to low 40s. The key is going to be how that 7.5% of undecideds breaks (FHQ weighted average of undecideds in Ohio).

Wisconsin:
Things in the Badger state tightened a touch, but that is about all. The +3 Obama edge in the newly released Rasmussen poll actually in an improvement upon the the firm's June survey in the state that showed Romney -- not Obama -- ahead by three. Rasmussen continues to be the only polling outlet with Wisconsin results any closer than around five points. They pull the weighted average down some, but not outside of the lean category.


All told, neither poll did anything to alter either the map or the positioning of Ohio and Wisconsin on the Electoral College Spectrum. Ohio remains the pivotal state where either candidate would surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Wisconsin joins a group with Michigan and Nevada straddling the line between toss up and lean while still favor Obama by greater than 5%.

While I'm on the subject of Wisconsin, I should take the time to address Peter Hamby's examination of electoral college tie scenarios. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania figured heavily in several of them. Now, changes can and will occur between now and election day, but any projection that has Mitt Romney taking either or both of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania while Obama wins North Carolina and/or Virginia to force an electoral college tie -- or any other electoral college outcome for that matter -- just isn't that plausible. The Electoral College Spectrum below demonstrates why. Realistically, if Romney wins Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin, then all of the middle column states in light blue are likely going to come along for the ride. Again, think about a pendulum swing where there is a certain ordering of states and not about campaigns picking and choosing -- and ultimately peeling off -- one target state on an island. An electoral college tie is possible, it just isn't probable. And if we're hunting for one, look for scenarios that divide the toss up states in blue in the middle column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
MS-6
(52)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
AZ-11
(181)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
TN-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Though the map and Spectrum were unchanged relative to Thursday's update, the two polls that were released today did add a couple of new states to the Watch List. Ohio is now within a fraction of a point of jumping into the Lean Obama category and Wisconsin is now just in range of a shift to Toss Up Obama. As always, of states where polls are most likely to make a difference -- in the FHQ weighted average -- the following are the ones to eye most closely.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Please see:



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Thursday, July 26, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/26/12)

Incredibly steady? Yeah, the polls released on Thursday seemed to confirm that thesis will few exceptions.

New State Polls (7/26/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Missouri
7/24
+/- 3%
1172 likely voters
39.73
49.01
9.14
+9.28
+5.76
Nevada
7/18-7/22
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+5.33
New Jersey
7/18-7/22
+/- 4.2%
535 likely voters
50
42
6
+8
+12.90

Polling Quick Hits:
Changes (July 26)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Missouri:
The Show-Me state is one of those states that probably deserves more than the sporadic polling it has received thus far in 2012. However, the handful of surveys that have been in the field have been fairly consistent. Mitt Romney has hovered around the 50% mark all year while Barack Obama has been mired in the low to mid-40s. That was true of the We Ask America poll that was in the field on July 24. Well, the Romney end of it was true anyway. The former Massachusetts governor held a 49% share of respondents. President Obama, on the other hand, hit his low point in Missouri surveys overall in this one. The most that can be said is that the margin was enough to push the FHQ weighted average into Lean Romney territory, which seems about right. Missouri was not particularly proximate to the average of the lone remaining Toss Up Romney state, North Carolina.

Nevada:
The new Rasmussen poll out of the Sliver state was nothing new. Nevada continually shows an edge for the president in the surveys conducted there. And though it is nearly equivalent for Obama to the advantage Romney enjoys in Missouri, the outlooks for both states could not be more different. Missouri is seemingly locked down at around +5 for Romney, but Nevada is a different story. More than anything that is indicative of how much the election will swing back toward Republicans in 2012 relative to 2008. At the moment that safe Obama line can be drawn somewhat comfortably from the Obama perspective at the line between the Toss Up and Lean Obama states. But the coming months will answer whether that comfort level is a summer phenomenon.

In any event, the Rasmussen poll is consistent with the other two Rasmussen polls done prior to this one. For that matter, this poll is consistent with the entire pool of Nevada polls. Obama's range has been from 48-52 while Romney has regularly operated in a 42-46 range.

New Jersey:
Despite the fact that the Monmouth poll of New Jersey released this morning indicated the smallest lead of any poll yet in the Garden state, it did little to shake up the FHQ average. It dropped it slightly, but not by much. The key here is that this is the first likely voter poll out of New Jersey. The full registered voter sample showed a 51-38 Obama advantage. That result is in line with other polls in New Jersey. Furthermore, the transition to the likely voter sample may give us an eye into -- though I don't want to overgeneralize here, particularly across states -- that dynamic elsewhere. It has been hypothesized that Romney would get a boost out of such a shift when it occurs, but most polling outfits have yet to make the shift. The bump in this particular poll was not insignificant, but is not all that consequential in a state like New Jersey. Elsewhere? Well, that's a different matter. It is something that bears watching as we approach the conventions.


The day's polls did very little to alter the map or the Electoral College Spectrum. It is worth noting that Missouri moved into the Lean Romney category, but that is not nearly as significant a change as the Michigan shift was to the president yesterday. Michigan may very well be a place where the president is ultimately playing defense. Missouri will likely not prove likewise for Romney. Despite the category shift, Missouri maintains its position on the Spectrum. Nevada also held stead, but New Jersey flipped spots with Connecticut.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
ND-3
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
MS-6
(52)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
AZ-11
(181)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
TN-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The group of states on the Watch List remains unchanged but now, as was the case with Michigan yesterday, Missouri is statistically within range of switching back to a Toss Up Romney state even if the reality is that the Show-Me state is trending toward Romney and away from Obama.  All told steady is the name of the game and nothing in today's polling fundamentally changed that.

...nor should we expect it to.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Please see:



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