Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/31/12)

FHQ gobbled up all of the late week polls that were slow emerging over the weekend. That made for a quiet Monday and obviously no change to the current outlook. On Tuesday, that changed.

New State Polls (7/31/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
7/26-7/29
+/- 3.3%
871 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+1.19
Missouri
7/30
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
44
50
3
+6
+6.39

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
All has been quiet on the Florida front since the surprising +5 Obama poll was released out of the Sunshine state by Survey USA over a week ago. Public Policy Polling was in the field over the weekend, however, and found what a great many of the other polls in the state have found: a dead heat.  Most polls since May have shown a race that slightly -- and I mean slightly -- favors the president, but one that rarely indicates a race anymore than +4 in one direction or the other. The PPP poll was the same with (likely voter) respondents giving Obama a 48-47 edge.

Missouri:
Last week, FHQ wanted to call Missouri underpolled, but three polls later, perhaps we have a clear reason why that has been. Mitt Romney simply -- and not all that surprisingly really -- holds a comfortable advantage in the Show-Me state. Mind you, Missouri has never been any closer than three points -- in an April Rasmussen poll -- and the existing Republican margin in the state has been highlighted even more after this latest flurry of polling activity there. In a steady race, Missouri has been pretty steady and will likely remain that way: Steady Romney.


What do either of these polls mean for the map or the Electoral College Spectrum? Well, nothing really.  The map is stationary. Meanwhile neither poll shifted either state much at all, since both were consistent with the prevailing weighted average anyway. Missouri is in Romney's column and Florida is the first line of defense -- albeit one with a tenuous but consistent to this point grasp on the position -- on the blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
MO-10
(169)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Somewhat surprisingly, trading out a +5 Obama poll for a +1 Obama poll did not have all that big of a statistical impact on the FHQ weighted average. The margin only dipped .02 of a point. Importantly, that keeps Florida off of the Watch List.

...for now.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:30 PM 0 comments
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Sunday, July 29, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/29/12)

Here's another Friday leftover out of Missouri and a couple of Pennsylvania polls from Susquehanna.

New State Polls (7/29/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Missouri
7/23-7/25
+/- 4%
625 likely voters
42
51
5
+9
+6.49
Pennsylvania
3/24-3/28
+/- ??%
700 likely voters
45
45
--
0
+6.12
Pennsylvania
7/19-7/23
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
46
43
--
+3
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri:
Maybe St. Louis wasn't really a feasible alternative to Charlotte as a site for the Democratic convention (if the goal was to win the state in which a convention is held). More than anything, Missouri looks less like the reliable bellwether it was throughout the 20th century and more like a comfortable Republican state. Granted, there just has not been that much polling conducted in the Show-Me state, but Missouri has not really "felt" as close as the polls before this past week had indicated. By FHQ's measure, Missouri was straddling the line between a Toss Up Romney state and a Lean Romney state.

Was is the operative word. After a couple of +9 Romney polls this past week (Mason-Dixon and We Ask America), the weighted average for Missouri has pushed Romney's advantage over the president in the state into the heart of the Lean category. Interestingly, the percentage margin in Missouri in November 2008 was nearly 7 points behind the overall popular vote margin. McCain won the state by just .13% while Obama won the national popular vote by a little more than 7 points. I don't want to read too much into this based on polls in or before July, but now in 2012 Missouri is a tad under 7 points in Romney's direction while Obama is widely seen as having a slight advantage nationally. Again, that makes for an nice footnote, but little else at this point.

A question I like more is why Missouri and Indiana have jumped more quickly to the right in surveys thus far in 2012 and North Carolina has not. Those three states were the closest states overall in 2008. Why, then, has the pendulum swung in Missouri and Indiana and not North Carolina? North Carolina has not exactly been underpolled, yet consistently never gives either candidate much more than a 1-3% edge.

Pennsylvania:
FHQ will pass on expounding too much on the state of the race in Pennsylvania. On numbers alone, Pennsylvania is to Obama what Missouri is to Romney. [Yes, that is an overly simplistic view.] Instead, let's focus on the addition of a couple of Susquehanna polls -- one of which is from March and has been missed by a number of other survey aggregators out there. First of all, Susquehanna is a Republican polling firm, and early on seemed to have a bit of a rightward house effect. Romney led a February poll of Pennsylvania and was tied with the president there in a late March survey (see above). One would expect that to serve as something of a drag on the weighted average -- and it does -- but that impact is muted. Recall, that the weighted average discounts older polls. And those February and March polls are pretty heavily discounted at this point. Still, the addition of the two polls did pull the average down some, but not nearly enough to bring it into Toss Up range.

I should also note that Susquehanna also polled Pennsylvania in June and found Obama ahead 48-43. However, that poll is not included either above or in the averages yet because the dates the survey was in the field are unknown. As such, FHQ cannot accurately weight the poll for inclusion in our weighted average. Of all the Susquehanna polls, that June poll is the most consistent with other surveys of Keystone state voters.



This is quickly turning into a something of a daily refrain, but none of the above polls did anything to change the above electoral college map. Both Missouri and Pennsylvania are well within the Lean range -- just on opposite ends of the spectrum. The trend in Missouri is moving more toward Romney, though, while Pennsylvania has held a steady line of late between the two candidates. And that is reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Pennsylvania holds its line in the latest update. On the other hand, Missouri jumps both Arizona and Tennessee, deeper into the Romney list of states. [Side note: Tennessee, for a state that isn't as close as the polls have indicated, needs some new polling. It is not a Lean state.]

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
MO-10
(169)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Arbitrary though the lines of demarcation between state are, the current Toss Up, Lean and Strong configuration has done a better job of sorting red states than blue states. That is reflected in a much bluer Watch List below. Of course, the Watch List is to some extent a hostage of where polling is being conducted. There is more volatility/more polling in a group of bluish Toss Up and Lean states than anywhere else. The only red state of consequence now is North Carolina. Neither Georgia nor West Virginia are states that are going to shift toward Obama much less cast their electoral votes for the president.

That said, the list just lost another red state, Missouri. The Show-Me state, as was mentioned above, has shifted more toward Romney and more firmly into the Lean category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:45 AM 0 comments
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Saturday, July 28, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/28/12)

There were some leftovers from Friday:

New State Polls (7/28/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
North Dakota
7/24-7/26
+/- 4.9%
400 likely voters
35
54
12
(includes "other" responses)
+19
+16.46
Ohio
7/23-7/24
+/- 4.01%
597 likely voters
45
43
3
+2
+3.95

Polling Quick Hits:
North Dakota:
What a difference four years makes. At this point in 2008, North Dakota was a toss up state by FHQ's measure; closer than eventual blue states Florida, Indiana and North Carolina.1 That is either an indictment of the methodology or a cautionary tale about placing too much faith in the predictive power of polls conducted during or before July. Given how things ended up in November, I am comfortable saying it was the latter. The 2008 polling of the Peace Garden state up to July showed a race in the low to mid-single digits (in both directions: Obama & McCain).

North Dakota ultimately ended up in the McCain column in November, but the Arizona senator's advantage in vote share was just less than 9 points. In July that would have been a Lean McCain state.  In 2012, Romney's advantage -- according to FHQ's weighted average -- is about eight points greater than the Republican vote share in 2008 and more than 15 points greater than the simple average of polls at this point in the race in 2008. North Dakota is firmly on Romney's side of the ledger.

Ohio:
I said quite a bit about Ohio yesterday, so I'll keep it brief here. This Magellan poll at +2 Obama is probably a better snapshot of the Buckeye state than the +8 Obama We Ask American survey. It is closer to the FHQ weighted average anyway. In the terms of yesterday's discussion, the Magellan poll finds Obama at the very bottom of this Ohio range and Romney right in the middle of his more widely dispersed set of poll points. Look, Ohio is going to be right there as a potential tipping point state unless something comes along to fundamentally alter the outlook of this race. A Portman selection as Romney's running mate would change things, but probably not enough to consider that the type of fundamental shift to which I'm referring. But it would have an effect.



Neither poll did enough to the weighted averages in either state to change the electoral college map. The Electoral College Spectrum saw North Dakota switch places with Mississippi, but that is more a cosmetic change than a consequential one. Again, North Dakota is a Romney state and that isn't going to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
AZ-11
(181)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
TN-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The We Ask American Ohio poll put the Buckeye state on the Watch List, but the Magellan poll recalibrated the weighted average just enough to pull it back off again. Other than that the list remains unchanged.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.


Please see:

--
1 Note that the July 30 electoral college post in 2008 is when the at that point yet to be named -- or fully formed for that matter -- Electoral College Spectrum made its first appearance. 


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 2:00 PM 0 comments
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