Wednesday, August 1, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/1/12)

It is fair to say that we were greeted with some interesting state-level presidential polls this morning. The trio of new Quinnipiac polls --in conjunction with the New York Times and CBS -- were eye-opening for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was the extent to which each demonstrated healthy leads for President Obama. Some made the point that the underlying samples in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were overly Democratic. And that is especially noteworthy for a confluence of reasons. First, these three polls were the first in which Quinnipiac had shifted to a likely voter sample. Second, the growing sentiment among the pundit class was that this would more than likely mean -- in the aggregate -- a shift of some sort toward Governor Romney. The Quinnipiac polls at the very least violated that assumption.

Look, this is all about context. Sure, we can overanalyze a single snapshot survey or three, but it is proper to place each in its own state's pool of polls. At first glance each seems like an outlier, but are they? Let's look at them alphabetically.

Florida:
A +6 for Obama in the Sunshine state seems like a margin at the extreme end of the spectrum. And it is. But it is in line with a couple of other polls conducted in July (Priorities USA +4 and Survey USA +5). Of the eight July Florida polls, three showed Obama with a lead of more than four points. Three others show a one point Obama edge, and the remaining two had Romney up one and three. Are Florida polls with Obama up more than four points outliers? I don't know that they are outliers at this juncture so much as they represent one end of the overall polling volatility/variability. That is a range that starts very near a tie one way or the other and ends with Obama ahead by around four points or so. Statistically speaking, FHQ's weighted average has Florida pegged at about Obama +1.5.

Ohio:
The same thing that was said for Florida above can be extended to Ohio as well, albeit with a smaller range of variability tilted slightly more toward Obama. What FHQ means is that while there seems to a 0-4 point margin toward Obama in most polls of Florida, the surveys in Ohio show about a 3-6 point range of margins. And this poll fits right in with that set of polls -- those five conducted in July.

Pennsylvania:
Is Obama ahead in Pennsylvania? Yes. Are the campaigns less engaged there than they have been recently? Yes. Does Obama lead Pennsylvania by 11 points? No. This one is an outlier (even if the sample more accurately reflected the underlying partisan dynamic in the Keystone state). Now, we may see the lead for the president stretch out some in the coming weeks, but this poll is the only piece of evidence to that effect at this point and that lead is less likely to jump into double digits. The last survey that had Obama up double digits there was a Franklin and Marshall poll at the end of May. And that poll was every bit as much of an outlier then.

New State Polls (8/1/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
7/23-7/25
+/- 3.4%
833 likely voters
41
52
7
+11
+6.84
Florida
7/24-7/30
+/- 3%
1177 likely voters
51
45
4
+6
+1.48
Michigan
7/24-7/31
+/- 4%
600 likely voters
48
42
10
+6
+5.27
Ohio
7/24-7/30
+/- 3%
1193 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+4.08
Pennsylvania
7/24-7/30
+/- 3%
1168 likely voters
53
42
4
+11
+6.50

Other Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
The Grand Canyon state is doing its best Missouri impression over the last couple of polls. The trend in Arizona has moved -- like Missouri -- from straddling the line between toss up and lean status into the core of the lean category (as FHQ measures it). The latest PPP survey mirrors the last poll in the state, a Rasmussen poll with Romney up by 13. Even with the bump for being the the home state of the Republican nominee in 2008 having evaporated, Obama has not been able to keep the state any closer or in a more competitive area as the campaign had projected in 2011 and into this year. Arizona is right in line now with where it ended the 2008 cycle on election day in the FHQ weighted average. In other words, firmly within the Republican column.

Michigan:
The new survey from EPIC/MRA reflects the weighted average more closely than any of the other polls released today. It is also in line with most of the most recent polls in the Great Lakes state. It does represent a reversal from the last EPIC poll where Romney led Obama by one in early June.


All told, none of these polls had any fundamental impact on the weighted averages. The map remains unaltered and the Electoral College Spectrum only saw Arizona leapfrog Tennessee and Missouri deeper into the red.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
AZ-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The averages were not unchanged in any of the five states, but the changes pushed only Ohio onto the Watch List. The Buckeye state is now within a fraction of a point of shifting into the lean category. And that is probably about right.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/31/12)

FHQ gobbled up all of the late week polls that were slow emerging over the weekend. That made for a quiet Monday and obviously no change to the current outlook. On Tuesday, that changed.

New State Polls (7/31/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
7/26-7/29
+/- 3.3%
871 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+1.19
Missouri
7/30
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
44
50
3
+6
+6.39

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
All has been quiet on the Florida front since the surprising +5 Obama poll was released out of the Sunshine state by Survey USA over a week ago. Public Policy Polling was in the field over the weekend, however, and found what a great many of the other polls in the state have found: a dead heat.  Most polls since May have shown a race that slightly -- and I mean slightly -- favors the president, but one that rarely indicates a race anymore than +4 in one direction or the other. The PPP poll was the same with (likely voter) respondents giving Obama a 48-47 edge.

Missouri:
Last week, FHQ wanted to call Missouri underpolled, but three polls later, perhaps we have a clear reason why that has been. Mitt Romney simply -- and not all that surprisingly really -- holds a comfortable advantage in the Show-Me state. Mind you, Missouri has never been any closer than three points -- in an April Rasmussen poll -- and the existing Republican margin in the state has been highlighted even more after this latest flurry of polling activity there. In a steady race, Missouri has been pretty steady and will likely remain that way: Steady Romney.


What do either of these polls mean for the map or the Electoral College Spectrum? Well, nothing really.  The map is stationary. Meanwhile neither poll shifted either state much at all, since both were consistent with the prevailing weighted average anyway. Missouri is in Romney's column and Florida is the first line of defense -- albeit one with a tenuous but consistent to this point grasp on the position -- on the blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
MO-10
(169)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Somewhat surprisingly, trading out a +5 Obama poll for a +1 Obama poll did not have all that big of a statistical impact on the FHQ weighted average. The margin only dipped .02 of a point. Importantly, that keeps Florida off of the Watch List.

...for now.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:30 PM 0 comments
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Sunday, July 29, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/29/12)

Here's another Friday leftover out of Missouri and a couple of Pennsylvania polls from Susquehanna.

New State Polls (7/29/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Missouri
7/23-7/25
+/- 4%
625 likely voters
42
51
5
+9
+6.49
Pennsylvania
3/24-3/28
+/- ??%
700 likely voters
45
45
--
0
+6.12
Pennsylvania
7/19-7/23
+/- 3.46%
800 likely voters
46
43
--
+3
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Missouri:
Maybe St. Louis wasn't really a feasible alternative to Charlotte as a site for the Democratic convention (if the goal was to win the state in which a convention is held). More than anything, Missouri looks less like the reliable bellwether it was throughout the 20th century and more like a comfortable Republican state. Granted, there just has not been that much polling conducted in the Show-Me state, but Missouri has not really "felt" as close as the polls before this past week had indicated. By FHQ's measure, Missouri was straddling the line between a Toss Up Romney state and a Lean Romney state.

Was is the operative word. After a couple of +9 Romney polls this past week (Mason-Dixon and We Ask America), the weighted average for Missouri has pushed Romney's advantage over the president in the state into the heart of the Lean category. Interestingly, the percentage margin in Missouri in November 2008 was nearly 7 points behind the overall popular vote margin. McCain won the state by just .13% while Obama won the national popular vote by a little more than 7 points. I don't want to read too much into this based on polls in or before July, but now in 2012 Missouri is a tad under 7 points in Romney's direction while Obama is widely seen as having a slight advantage nationally. Again, that makes for an nice footnote, but little else at this point.

A question I like more is why Missouri and Indiana have jumped more quickly to the right in surveys thus far in 2012 and North Carolina has not. Those three states were the closest states overall in 2008. Why, then, has the pendulum swung in Missouri and Indiana and not North Carolina? North Carolina has not exactly been underpolled, yet consistently never gives either candidate much more than a 1-3% edge.

Pennsylvania:
FHQ will pass on expounding too much on the state of the race in Pennsylvania. On numbers alone, Pennsylvania is to Obama what Missouri is to Romney. [Yes, that is an overly simplistic view.] Instead, let's focus on the addition of a couple of Susquehanna polls -- one of which is from March and has been missed by a number of other survey aggregators out there. First of all, Susquehanna is a Republican polling firm, and early on seemed to have a bit of a rightward house effect. Romney led a February poll of Pennsylvania and was tied with the president there in a late March survey (see above). One would expect that to serve as something of a drag on the weighted average -- and it does -- but that impact is muted. Recall, that the weighted average discounts older polls. And those February and March polls are pretty heavily discounted at this point. Still, the addition of the two polls did pull the average down some, but not nearly enough to bring it into Toss Up range.

I should also note that Susquehanna also polled Pennsylvania in June and found Obama ahead 48-43. However, that poll is not included either above or in the averages yet because the dates the survey was in the field are unknown. As such, FHQ cannot accurately weight the poll for inclusion in our weighted average. Of all the Susquehanna polls, that June poll is the most consistent with other surveys of Keystone state voters.



This is quickly turning into a something of a daily refrain, but none of the above polls did anything to change the above electoral college map. Both Missouri and Pennsylvania are well within the Lean range -- just on opposite ends of the spectrum. The trend in Missouri is moving more toward Romney, though, while Pennsylvania has held a steady line of late between the two candidates. And that is reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum below. Pennsylvania holds its line in the latest update. On the other hand, Missouri jumps both Arizona and Tennessee, deeper into the Romney list of states. [Side note: Tennessee, for a state that isn't as close as the polls have indicated, needs some new polling. It is not a Lean state.]

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
MO-10
(169)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Arbitrary though the lines of demarcation between state are, the current Toss Up, Lean and Strong configuration has done a better job of sorting red states than blue states. That is reflected in a much bluer Watch List below. Of course, the Watch List is to some extent a hostage of where polling is being conducted. There is more volatility/more polling in a group of bluish Toss Up and Lean states than anywhere else. The only red state of consequence now is North Carolina. Neither Georgia nor West Virginia are states that are going to shift toward Obama much less cast their electoral votes for the president.

That said, the list just lost another red state, Missouri. The Show-Me state, as was mentioned above, has shifted more toward Romney and more firmly into the Lean category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:45 AM 0 comments
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