Thursday, August 2, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/2/12)

Thursday brought a couple of polls from deep blue states and the first survey of North Carolina in two weeks.

New State Polls (8/2/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
7/26-7/29
+/- 3.5%
771 likely voters
51
43
6
+8
+10.79
New Jersey
7/23-7/29
+/- 3.3%
945 registered & unregistered voters
49
36
15
+12
+12.93
North Carolina
8/1
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
44
49
4
+5
+1.26

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
FHQ doesn't know whether to be surprised by this one or not. On the one hand, the Nutmeg state is a place where Obama won by over 20 points in 2008. The fact that that advantage is down to 8 points in this PPP survey points to a shift back to the right, but one perhaps that is a little tighter than reality. After all, this is just the third time Connecticut has been polled in 2012 and this is the first likely voter sample. There should be some expectation, then, that there will be some volatility from poll to poll. Connecticut bears watching, but if Obama loses there in November, he will lose in a lot of 2008 blue states as well as the White House.

New Jersey:
Fairleigh Dickinson polls typically have shown quite a bit of wiggle room in New Jersey; mainly as a function of the high level of undecideds plus sample registered and unregistered voters. Despite that, this poll nearly matches the FHQ weighted average in the Garden state. It underestimates both Obama's and Romney's shares by about a point. Bottom line: New Jersey is a blue state.

North Carolina:
North Carolina is not a blue state, and on top of that is moving deeper into the red if this new Rasmussen poll of likely voters in the Tarheel state is any indication. Right now, North Carolina is to Romney what Florida is to Obama. That statement is true on at least a couple of fronts. Both Florida and North Carolina represent the closest states in FHQ's weighted average for Obama and Romney respectively. Also, polls may vary in each in a 1-4 point range (give or take), but more recent polls have shown gaps closer to the lower bound rather than the upper bound.

North Carolina has been defying the pendulum swing narrative FHQ has used, but additional +5 leads for Romney there will have the Tarheel state on the move.

...away from the president.



Strategically, as both the map above and Electoral College Spectrum below will attest, losing North Carolina is not in any way a death knell for President Obama. In fact, a second North Carolina win for Obama would be just like the first: icing on a cake already made of more than 270 electoral votes. Romney, however, needs North Carolina and needs the state as to be shut down as soon after the Democrats leave Charlotte as possible.

FHQ has mentioned this before, but if Romney can save resources in North Carolina, that is that much more he, his campaign and aligned Super PACs can spend elsewhere; Florida, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and Ohio just to name a few (...right above North Carolina on the Spectrum). It may also mean spending in bluer areas to keep Obama on the defensive as well depending upon how some of those Lean Obama states trend over the next month or more.

Strategy aside, the map is unchanged from yesterday. The Electoral College Spectrum is not. Driven by the overall lack of polling and the introduction of a new and tighter poll, Connecticut makes a pretty good jump from being Solid for Obama to the cusp of being on the upper end of the Lean Obama states. Both New Jersey and North Carolina stood pat in their previous positions.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
MN-10
(170)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
WA-12
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
AZ-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

And off goes North Carolina. With the Tarheel state off the Watch List, it even further resembles a mirror image of Florida. Both are certainly competitive, but both are deeper in the toss up category that it will take more than a handful of polls with large-ish leads like some of the recent ones in each state to push them to the other side of the color spectrum.

Connecticut replaces North Carolina on the list; joining a group of Strong Obama states that includes New Mexico and Washington on the lower end of the category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



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Wednesday, August 1, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/1/12)

It is fair to say that we were greeted with some interesting state-level presidential polls this morning. The trio of new Quinnipiac polls --in conjunction with the New York Times and CBS -- were eye-opening for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was the extent to which each demonstrated healthy leads for President Obama. Some made the point that the underlying samples in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were overly Democratic. And that is especially noteworthy for a confluence of reasons. First, these three polls were the first in which Quinnipiac had shifted to a likely voter sample. Second, the growing sentiment among the pundit class was that this would more than likely mean -- in the aggregate -- a shift of some sort toward Governor Romney. The Quinnipiac polls at the very least violated that assumption.

Look, this is all about context. Sure, we can overanalyze a single snapshot survey or three, but it is proper to place each in its own state's pool of polls. At first glance each seems like an outlier, but are they? Let's look at them alphabetically.

Florida:
A +6 for Obama in the Sunshine state seems like a margin at the extreme end of the spectrum. And it is. But it is in line with a couple of other polls conducted in July (Priorities USA +4 and Survey USA +5). Of the eight July Florida polls, three showed Obama with a lead of more than four points. Three others show a one point Obama edge, and the remaining two had Romney up one and three. Are Florida polls with Obama up more than four points outliers? I don't know that they are outliers at this juncture so much as they represent one end of the overall polling volatility/variability. That is a range that starts very near a tie one way or the other and ends with Obama ahead by around four points or so. Statistically speaking, FHQ's weighted average has Florida pegged at about Obama +1.5.

Ohio:
The same thing that was said for Florida above can be extended to Ohio as well, albeit with a smaller range of variability tilted slightly more toward Obama. What FHQ means is that while there seems to a 0-4 point margin toward Obama in most polls of Florida, the surveys in Ohio show about a 3-6 point range of margins. And this poll fits right in with that set of polls -- those five conducted in July.

Pennsylvania:
Is Obama ahead in Pennsylvania? Yes. Are the campaigns less engaged there than they have been recently? Yes. Does Obama lead Pennsylvania by 11 points? No. This one is an outlier (even if the sample more accurately reflected the underlying partisan dynamic in the Keystone state). Now, we may see the lead for the president stretch out some in the coming weeks, but this poll is the only piece of evidence to that effect at this point and that lead is less likely to jump into double digits. The last survey that had Obama up double digits there was a Franklin and Marshall poll at the end of May. And that poll was every bit as much of an outlier then.

New State Polls (8/1/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
7/23-7/25
+/- 3.4%
833 likely voters
41
52
7
+11
+6.84
Florida
7/24-7/30
+/- 3%
1177 likely voters
51
45
4
+6
+1.48
Michigan
7/24-7/31
+/- 4%
600 likely voters
48
42
10
+6
+5.27
Ohio
7/24-7/30
+/- 3%
1193 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
+4.08
Pennsylvania
7/24-7/30
+/- 3%
1168 likely voters
53
42
4
+11
+6.50

Other Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
The Grand Canyon state is doing its best Missouri impression over the last couple of polls. The trend in Arizona has moved -- like Missouri -- from straddling the line between toss up and lean status into the core of the lean category (as FHQ measures it). The latest PPP survey mirrors the last poll in the state, a Rasmussen poll with Romney up by 13. Even with the bump for being the the home state of the Republican nominee in 2008 having evaporated, Obama has not been able to keep the state any closer or in a more competitive area as the campaign had projected in 2011 and into this year. Arizona is right in line now with where it ended the 2008 cycle on election day in the FHQ weighted average. In other words, firmly within the Republican column.

Michigan:
The new survey from EPIC/MRA reflects the weighted average more closely than any of the other polls released today. It is also in line with most of the most recent polls in the Great Lakes state. It does represent a reversal from the last EPIC poll where Romney led Obama by one in early June.


All told, none of these polls had any fundamental impact on the weighted averages. The map remains unaltered and the Electoral College Spectrum only saw Arizona leapfrog Tennessee and Missouri deeper into the red.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
TN-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
MO-10
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
AZ-11
(170)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The averages were not unchanged in any of the five states, but the changes pushed only Ohio onto the Watch List. The Buckeye state is now within a fraction of a point of shifting into the lean category. And that is probably about right.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.



Please see:



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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The Electoral College Map (7/31/12)

FHQ gobbled up all of the late week polls that were slow emerging over the weekend. That made for a quiet Monday and obviously no change to the current outlook. On Tuesday, that changed.

New State Polls (7/31/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
7/26-7/29
+/- 3.3%
871 likely voters
48
47
5
+1
+1.19
Missouri
7/30
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
44
50
3
+6
+6.39

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
All has been quiet on the Florida front since the surprising +5 Obama poll was released out of the Sunshine state by Survey USA over a week ago. Public Policy Polling was in the field over the weekend, however, and found what a great many of the other polls in the state have found: a dead heat.  Most polls since May have shown a race that slightly -- and I mean slightly -- favors the president, but one that rarely indicates a race anymore than +4 in one direction or the other. The PPP poll was the same with (likely voter) respondents giving Obama a 48-47 edge.

Missouri:
Last week, FHQ wanted to call Missouri underpolled, but three polls later, perhaps we have a clear reason why that has been. Mitt Romney simply -- and not all that surprisingly really -- holds a comfortable advantage in the Show-Me state. Mind you, Missouri has never been any closer than three points -- in an April Rasmussen poll -- and the existing Republican margin in the state has been highlighted even more after this latest flurry of polling activity there. In a steady race, Missouri has been pretty steady and will likely remain that way: Steady Romney.


What do either of these polls mean for the map or the Electoral College Spectrum? Well, nothing really.  The map is stationary. Meanwhile neither poll shifted either state much at all, since both were consistent with the prevailing weighted average anyway. Missouri is in Romney's column and Florida is the first line of defense -- albeit one with a tenuous but consistent to this point grasp on the position -- on the blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
CT-7
(153)
NH-4
(257)
IN-11
(159)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
NJ-14
(167)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(148)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(145)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
WA-12
(189)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(129)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
NM-5
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
SC-9
(124)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
LA-8
(115)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
NE-5
(107)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
AZ-11
(191)
AR-6
(102)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(180)
TX-38
(96)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
MO-10
(169)
SD-3
(58)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Somewhat surprisingly, trading out a +5 Obama poll for a +1 Obama poll did not have all that big of a statistical impact on the FHQ weighted average. The margin only dipped .02 of a point. Importantly, that keeps Florida off of the Watch List.

...for now.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
Washington
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:



Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:30 PM 0 comments
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