Tuesday, August 21, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/21/12)

A slow Monday gave way to a much busier Tuesday on the polling front. Two Toss Up Obama states, two Lean Obama states and New York all had new survey data released today.

New State Polls (8/21/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/17
+/- 2.53%
1503 likely voters
39.90
54.46
4.72
+14.56
+0.27
Michigan
8/16
+/- 2.35%
1733 likely voters
43.88
47.68
4.01
+3.80
+4.51
New York
8/14-8/19
+/- 3.8%
671 likely voters
62
33
5
+29
+24.87
Virginia
8/16-8/19
+/- 3.4%
855 likely voters
50
45
5
+5
+2.77
Wisconsin
8/16-8/19
+/- 2.7%
1308 likely voters
47
48
5
+1
+4.99

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
It feels like most people had a chance to take their potshots at the Foster McCollum White poll of the Sunshine state over the weekend. FHQ does not have that much add. In a year with comparatively tight polling variation, this poll is as volatile as they come relative to the existing information to which we are all privy. No Florida poll has shown Mitt Romney over 49% and no poll has shown Barack Obama under 41% there. This poll violated both of those precedents. It is an outlier. Nothing more, nothing less.

Michigan:
In the other Foster McCollum White poll released today, things also favored Romney but not nearly to the extent in Michigan as they were in Florida. The former Massachusetts governor leads the president by nearly four points in the Great Lakes state. Romney has not led Michigan by anything greater than two percentage points all year, but the two candidates' shares of the vote are at least within range of where other polling firms have found each of them in 2012. We just haven't seen this particular combination before. Perhaps more importantly, the poll -- outlier or not -- shifted Michigan back into the Toss Up Obama category in the FHQ weighted averages.

New York:
The Empire state is like Oklahoma yesterday. But instead of being comfortably red, New York is safely blue.

Virginia:
On a day that outside of the Siena poll out of New York ran against the president, the latest PPP survey of Virginia was the lone bright spot in an electorally consequential state. Of course, the poll was not without good new for Romney. Though Obama remained stationary compared to the early July poll from the Raleigh-based firm, Romney crept up three points, closing the gap to five. This one is consistent with other PPP surveys of Virginia and is well within range of where most other polls have shown the race, but it is a little more on the blue side of things than some other recent polls in the commonwealth.

Wisconsin:
Changes (August 21)
StateBeforeAfter
MichiganLean ObamaToss Up Obama
WisconsinLean ObamaToss Up Obama
Earlier in the day, Public Policy Polling also released a survey of Wisconsin that was in the field at the same time as the Virginia poll above. Unlike Virginia, however, the results indicated a shift toward Romney/Ryan in the time since the Badger state representative was named to the Republican ticket. The bounce -- post-Ryan -- in the survey pushed Romney into a lead that mirrored the previous Rasmussen poll in Wisconsin and also moved the state into the Toss Up Obama category. This is fairly meaningful even if Wisconsin had been tracking in this direction for the last week and a half or more. If you will recall our inaugural 2012 electoral college post, FHQ mentioned that the way these averages are set up, movement to and from categories is typically representative of a lasting shift. Typically, though not always. Both Michigan and Missouri have hovered around the Lean/Toss Up line since July. This is not to suggest that when and/or if the supposed Ryan bounce recedes -- or at the very least polling settles down there -- Wisconsin will not hover in a way similar to Michigan/Missouri. Rather it means that Wisconsin has trended in a certain direction and has all the earmarks of a toss up state, but one at the moment where Wisconsin is more like New Hampshire than Florida. In other words, there is more distance for Romney to make up in the Badger state than in say Florida or neighboring Iowa.

...for now.


The margin in Florida contracted quite a bit so that it is now the closest state -- within a quarter of a point of being tied in FHQ's weighted averages. [North Carolina had been the closest.] The same was true in Michigan and Wisconsin as well. With the Missouri shift last week and now the two midwestern states added to the mix, the overall number of toss up states has increased to ten. Additionally, two of the three Lean Obama states that were on the Watch List below and were highlighted last week with the Michigan/Wisconsin move. [Nevada was the other one.]

This does not fundamentally change much of anything. The map is the exact same, but the Lean Obama category has shrunk by 26 electoral votes. [Both sides of the Lean category are, well, lean at this point.] The categorizations may have changed, but neither state (Michigan or Wisconsin) is particularly surprising as Toss Up state. And at this point anyway, both still favor the president in the FHQ averages as is the case for most (80%) of the other swing states. Romney still have to improve his standing in at least half of the swing states -- if not more if Florida and/or Ohio are in Obama's column -- to push to victory in the electoral vote tally.

But as we head into the convention phase of the campaign, we have a cluster of states worth eyeing as polls emerge during the coming weeks.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remains the same but both Michigan and Wisconsin are now on the verge of moving into the Lean Obama category instead of out of the category and into the Toss Up area.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 1 comments
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Monday, August 20, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/20/12)

Slow Monday.

New State Polls (8/20/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Oklahoma
7/26-8/14
+/- 4.4%
495 likely voters
29
58
13
+29
+31.16

Polling Quick Hits:
Oklahoma:
Hmmm.

What can you say about the new Sooner Poll of likely voters in Oklahoma? I can think of a couple. First of all, this is the first poll out of a Strong Romney state in quite a while. The market has been flush with surveys covering the gamut of every state categorization but this one. In that regard, the silver lining is that we have some -- superfluous, perhaps -- confirmation from new data that Obama is not going to win Oklahoma. As I said earlier today, "Everyone put your purple crayons away." The other thing is that Obama gained a couple of points since the last Sooner Poll and Romney dropped a handful. And well, that got things under 30 points for the president, which takes us right back to point number one above.


Status quo. The map is unchanged and ruby red Oklahoma maintains its position deep in the heart of the Republican side of the ledger on the Electoral College Spectrum.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? I'll tell you what: If Oklahoma ever enters the Watch List, Obama will have won the election or the polling industry has crumbled. Neither's happening.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Friday, August 17, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/17/12)

I don't know that we necessarily saw the type of polling avalanche this week following the Paul Ryan rollout that many expected. That was certainly true today with no new publicly available survey data. All that was out there were the leftovers from Thursday; a Mitchell Research survey out of Michigan.

New State Polls (8/17/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Michigan
8/13
+/- 2.98%
1079 likely voters
49
44
4
+5
+5.25

Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan:
The aforementioned Mitchell poll is about par for the course in the Great Lakes state at this current juncture in the race. It is very much in line with the FHQ weighted average for Michigan not to mention most of the recent polling there. The persistent Obama lead is only part of the story. The silver lining embedded in this particular poll is that earlier Mitchell polls showed a +1 for Obama and a +1 for Romney in their June and July (respectively) iterations. Counter to some of what we have seen in the polling released in the Toss Up and Lean Obama states this week, the president has increased his advantage relative to earlier polls by the same firms. Is this statistical noise or is it evidence of a trend? It likely tips toward the latter if the trend is a fairly consistent polling margin in Michigan for Obama.

As FHQ mentioned in yesterday's update, Michigan is in a tweener group of three states within the Lean category, but not to far off from being designated Toss Ups. Michigan, along with Wisconsin and Nevada are in a different subcategory than fellow Lean states, Pennsylvania and Oregon. Again, these three are in a pretty consequential position.



All three are close enough to warrant some attention and are all ripe for the picking in terms of Romney utilizing his fundraising/spending advantage. Forcing Obama to play defense -- to the extent the Romney campaign can do that -- in those states means less resources for states like North Carolina, in particular. That makes the signals from the Obama campaign following the Democratic Convention in Charlotte so important. If things are tight financially, the likelihood of the Democrats pulling out of the Old North state increase. That is doubly true if Romney/Ryan are able to cut into the president's advantage in some or all of tweener Obama Leans.

As it stands now, the status quo is maintained on both the electoral college map and the Electoral College Spectrum. But the bottom of that second column from the left is where we should watch as the conventions come and go.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
NH-4
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
MI-16
(253)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Like the figures above, the Watch List is untouched today. The gap in Michigan closed the tiniest of margins, keeping the Michigan-Nevada-Wisconsin troika within a tenth of a point.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:45 PM 0 comments
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