Thursday, August 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/23/12)

Another day, another eight polls from seven different states. The new data brings some good news for both candidates and creates a couple of minor changes in the FHQ outlook.

New State Polls (8/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
8/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
51
43
3
+8
+9.84
Florida
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1241 likely voters
49
46
5
+3
+0.26
Michigan
8/18-8/20
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47.5
42
10.5
+5.5
+4.60
Missouri
8/20
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
42
52
7
+10
+5.55
Ohio
8/16-8/21
+/- 3.4%
808 likely voters
49
46
2
+3
+3.53
Ohio
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
--
Pennsylvania
8/20-8/22
+/- 5.0%
422 likely voters
49
40
--
+9
+6.58
Wisconsin
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1190 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+4.73

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
There has not been a lot of polling in the Nutmeg state, but what data has been released has shown a surprisingly "close" race. Connecticut has tightened more relative to 2008 than most other states. There seems to be a mid- to upper single digit swing back to the Republicans in 2012 compared to 2008, but Connecticut has lurched back a bit further than that. It was a state Obama won by over 20 points and now leads by just under 10 in the FHQ weighted averages.

Florida:
The new Q-poll of Florida continues to show the president ahead in the Sunshine state (versus a Q-poll earlier this month), but that is somewhat at odds with other recent, post-Ryan polling there. The survey is not an outlier as it fits within the pre-existing range established by the data we have available. Florida is a toss up and will likely continue to be for either candidate heading down the stretch.

Michigan:
While there has been some variation in the polling coming out of Michigan, the confluence of information out there has consistently shown President Obama ahead in the five point range. Some polls have occasionally had Governor Romney in the lead, but this one continues to be a state that hovers around the Lean/Toss Up Obama line.

Changes (August 23)
StateBeforeAfter
ConnecticutLean ObamaStrong Obama
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Missouri:
This Akin insta-poll sample of Missouri from PPP may be a bit wider than the last two polls (a couple of +1 margins for Romney), but it pushes the Show Me state back into the Lean Romney category here at FHQ. And given the aforementioned swing in 2012 relative to 2008, that is likely where nearly-tied-in-2008 Missouri would be expected to be.

Ohio:
If Connecticut is a surprise in its larger change in 2012 compared to 2008 relative to other states, Ohio should be cited for the opposite. The Buckeye state has shifted to the right but only by a couple of points in FHQ's averages as compared to the final tally in 2008. Ohio has proven to be somewhat resistant to uniformly shifting as other states have. Still, the new Ohio Poll hits closer to the FHQ averages than the Q-poll (though the latter is in line with some other polling in the state).

Pennsylvania:
The Muhlenberg poll out of Pennsylvania today puts the margin in the race on the high side of the range of polling that has emerged from the Keystone state. That said, it is still consistent with other polling in the commonwealth and is counterbalanced by polling that has shown the race in the 4-5 point range.

Wisconsin:
Paul Ryan seems to be having an effect on the polling in his home state of Wisconsin. The margin has contracted a couple of points, but still leans in the president's direction.


Despite the flood of new data over the last couple of days, the changes here at FHQ remain minor. And that is, again, by design. The way the averages are set up, they react to changes in polling, but are not too erratic as to be swayed by one outlier survey. There has to be a clear trend. In terms of the electoral college tally, the only clear trends now are that 1) the toss up states favor the president at this point and 2) if there is to be any change to the tally, Florida will likely be the first state to drive that change. [North Carolina is close to a Romney-to-Obama switch, but none of the polling indicates that that is likely to happen. Florida on the other hand...]

On the Electoral College Spectrum, it is still early, but there is a clearly established group of states that will be the targets of campaign efforts down the stretch. Depending on what happens at the convention, that is subject to change, but the light blue/pink states are still the ones that will see the most attention.

No surprise.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, the two category switches (Connecticut and Missouri) stay put, but trade potential switch points. Connecticut is still safely blue, but is right along the Strong/Lean Obama line. Missouri, as FHQ said when it switched in this direction in July, is back to a Lean Romney state and is likely to stay that way; just perhaps on the low end of the category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/22/12)

Wednesday brought eleven new polls into the FHQ weighted averages from nine states. Nine surveys were newly released and two (from California and Georgia) were older polls from July that we are just adding in now.

And yeah, collectively the new additions created some changes in our customary graphics.

New State Polls (8/22/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
7/10-7/24
+/- 3.6%
1131 likely voters
51
40
7
+11
+18.84
California
8/3-8/7
+/- 3.0%
1041 likely voters
55.6
32.7
8
+22.9
--
Florida
8/20
+/- 3.8%
728 likely voters
45
48
--
+3
+0.11
Georgia
7/24
+/- ?.?%
591 likely voters
40.5
49.8
6.6
+9.3
+8.07
Georgia
8/15-8/18
+/- 2.9%
1158 likely voters
46
49
4
+3
--
Massachusetts
8/16-8/19
+/- 2.9%
1115 likely voters
55
39
6
+16
+18.01
Montana
8/20
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
38
55
4
+17
+10.32
Nevada
8/16-8/21
+/- 3.4%
869 likely voters
47
45
4
+2
+4.79
New Mexico
8/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
38
1
+14
+11.61
Vermont
8/11-8/21
+/- 4.5%
477 registered voters
62
25
8
+37
+34.79
Wisconsin
8/16-8/19
+/- 4.2%
576 likely voters
49
46
4
+3
+4.87

Polling Quick Hits:
[There is an awful lot to unpack in all of these, so this will be a super quick hits.]

California:
Nothing much to see here. The eleven point margin in the July PPIC poll is on the low side, but that was more a function of the Romney share being the highest he has garnered in any other poll of the Golden state than anything else. The Obama share in the poll was well within range of previous polls.

Florida:
Another day, another poll showing a slight Romney lead in the Sunshine state. The former Massachusetts governor has a number of these in recent days following a long dry stretch where Obama held small leads in Florida. The average does continue to creep closer to a tie. For those looking for FHQ's 332-206 electoral college outlook to change, Florida is the first state at which to look.

Georgia:
The Peach state is hardly on the Obama wish list this fall. However, the two most recent polls included in the FHQ weighted averages have pulled the margin between the president and Mitt Romney under the 10 point Strong/Lean line into the Lean Romney area. Georgia is not consequential in determining a winner in the electoral college tally. It is a safe Romney state and fits well -- as it did down the stretch in 2008 -- in the lean area. Keep in mind that FHQ will change the parameters of these categories -- shrinking them -- as we approach election day. That will have the effect of moving Georgia into the strong category barring any continued narrowing in the Peach state polling.

Massachusetts:
Well, the Bay state is a blue state. An argument could be made that this is a particularly lackluster showing for Obama there. That said, this PPP survey is not much unchanged from their last poll of the state earlier this year.
Changes (August 22)
StateBeforeAfter
GeorgiaStrong RomneyLean Romney
MontanaLean RomneyStrong Romney
NevadaLean ObamaToss Up Obama

Montana:
In 2008, the margin was anything but big in Big Sky Country between Obama and McCain, but in 2012, the distance between the two contenders vying for the presidency is living up to that name. Consecutive Rasmussen polls have bumped the Treasure state into the Strong Romney designation.

Nevada:
Perhaps more consequentially, the new poll in Nevada from Survey USA eases the Silver state into the Toss Up Obama category. Everyone of the three states highlighted last week -- Wisconsin, Michigan and now Nevada -- have moved from the Lean Obama area into the more competitive toss up distinction. This has had the impact of really squeezing the Lean Obama category. Only Pennsylvania and Oregon remain. That, in turn, makes it harder to resist the urge to treat the Obama side of the ledger in binary -- safe or not for Obama -- terms instead our customary three-tiered approach. [We won't make that change.]

New Mexico:
While there has been some polling volatility in New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment has just not swung back toward the Republicans (2008 vs. 2012) in the way that many other states have. There has been some shift in that direction, but not as much as we have more uniformly witnessed elsewhere. One footnote to New Mexico is that former governor and Libertarian Party nominee, Gary Johnson, has been included in a fair number of polls and has had some impact on any 2012 to 2008 comparison.

Vermont:
It is good to see Rich Clark's (Castleton State) name pop up. He's an old hand for my UGA days. It is also nice to have the data from very blue Vermont to confirm what we all already knew: chalk those three electoral votes up for Obama.

Wisconsin:
There is not much to add today to the picture in Wisconsin. The Marquette poll shows Obama ahead in the Badger state and while Wisconsin certainly tips in the president's direction, it is safe to call -- and the data backs it up -- it a toss up state.


I won't belabor this too much, but despite the above changes, the electoral college count remains unchanged at 332-206 in favor of the president. Of more consequence -- as alluded to above -- is the shuffling of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. With additions of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin to the toss up category, the 2012 Spectrum has the look -- at least in terms of how the colors match up but to some extent the states as well -- to 2004. The terrain on which the presidency will be fought and won dominates the most competitive middle column, but has now drawn in the bottom portions of the second column from the left.

I'll have more on this later. I had planned a post comparing the polling at this point in 2004, 2008 and 2012, but the week has filled up quickly. I hope to get to that before I head out for Tampa.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

New Mexico is off and Nevada is reassigned on the Watch List for today. There are a number of states that are on the cusp on entering the Lean Obama category, but as of now the number of states in that category has dwindled to two.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/21/12)

A slow Monday gave way to a much busier Tuesday on the polling front. Two Toss Up Obama states, two Lean Obama states and New York all had new survey data released today.

New State Polls (8/21/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/17
+/- 2.53%
1503 likely voters
39.90
54.46
4.72
+14.56
+0.27
Michigan
8/16
+/- 2.35%
1733 likely voters
43.88
47.68
4.01
+3.80
+4.51
New York
8/14-8/19
+/- 3.8%
671 likely voters
62
33
5
+29
+24.87
Virginia
8/16-8/19
+/- 3.4%
855 likely voters
50
45
5
+5
+2.77
Wisconsin
8/16-8/19
+/- 2.7%
1308 likely voters
47
48
5
+1
+4.99

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
It feels like most people had a chance to take their potshots at the Foster McCollum White poll of the Sunshine state over the weekend. FHQ does not have that much add. In a year with comparatively tight polling variation, this poll is as volatile as they come relative to the existing information to which we are all privy. No Florida poll has shown Mitt Romney over 49% and no poll has shown Barack Obama under 41% there. This poll violated both of those precedents. It is an outlier. Nothing more, nothing less.

Michigan:
In the other Foster McCollum White poll released today, things also favored Romney but not nearly to the extent in Michigan as they were in Florida. The former Massachusetts governor leads the president by nearly four points in the Great Lakes state. Romney has not led Michigan by anything greater than two percentage points all year, but the two candidates' shares of the vote are at least within range of where other polling firms have found each of them in 2012. We just haven't seen this particular combination before. Perhaps more importantly, the poll -- outlier or not -- shifted Michigan back into the Toss Up Obama category in the FHQ weighted averages.

New York:
The Empire state is like Oklahoma yesterday. But instead of being comfortably red, New York is safely blue.

Virginia:
On a day that outside of the Siena poll out of New York ran against the president, the latest PPP survey of Virginia was the lone bright spot in an electorally consequential state. Of course, the poll was not without good new for Romney. Though Obama remained stationary compared to the early July poll from the Raleigh-based firm, Romney crept up three points, closing the gap to five. This one is consistent with other PPP surveys of Virginia and is well within range of where most other polls have shown the race, but it is a little more on the blue side of things than some other recent polls in the commonwealth.

Wisconsin:
Changes (August 21)
StateBeforeAfter
MichiganLean ObamaToss Up Obama
WisconsinLean ObamaToss Up Obama
Earlier in the day, Public Policy Polling also released a survey of Wisconsin that was in the field at the same time as the Virginia poll above. Unlike Virginia, however, the results indicated a shift toward Romney/Ryan in the time since the Badger state representative was named to the Republican ticket. The bounce -- post-Ryan -- in the survey pushed Romney into a lead that mirrored the previous Rasmussen poll in Wisconsin and also moved the state into the Toss Up Obama category. This is fairly meaningful even if Wisconsin had been tracking in this direction for the last week and a half or more. If you will recall our inaugural 2012 electoral college post, FHQ mentioned that the way these averages are set up, movement to and from categories is typically representative of a lasting shift. Typically, though not always. Both Michigan and Missouri have hovered around the Lean/Toss Up line since July. This is not to suggest that when and/or if the supposed Ryan bounce recedes -- or at the very least polling settles down there -- Wisconsin will not hover in a way similar to Michigan/Missouri. Rather it means that Wisconsin has trended in a certain direction and has all the earmarks of a toss up state, but one at the moment where Wisconsin is more like New Hampshire than Florida. In other words, there is more distance for Romney to make up in the Badger state than in say Florida or neighboring Iowa.

...for now.


The margin in Florida contracted quite a bit so that it is now the closest state -- within a quarter of a point of being tied in FHQ's weighted averages. [North Carolina had been the closest.] The same was true in Michigan and Wisconsin as well. With the Missouri shift last week and now the two midwestern states added to the mix, the overall number of toss up states has increased to ten. Additionally, two of the three Lean Obama states that were on the Watch List below and were highlighted last week with the Michigan/Wisconsin move. [Nevada was the other one.]

This does not fundamentally change much of anything. The map is the exact same, but the Lean Obama category has shrunk by 26 electoral votes. [Both sides of the Lean category are, well, lean at this point.] The categorizations may have changed, but neither state (Michigan or Wisconsin) is particularly surprising as Toss Up state. And at this point anyway, both still favor the president in the FHQ averages as is the case for most (80%) of the other swing states. Romney still have to improve his standing in at least half of the swing states -- if not more if Florida and/or Ohio are in Obama's column -- to push to victory in the electoral vote tally.

But as we head into the convention phase of the campaign, we have a cluster of states worth eyeing as polls emerge during the coming weeks.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
RI-4
(7)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
HI-4
(11)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
MT-3
(156)
ND-3
(49)
NY-29
(40)
MN-10
(182)
CO-9
(284/263)
GA-16
(153)
AL-9
(46)
VT-3
(43)
NM-5
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List remains the same but both Michigan and Wisconsin are now on the verge of moving into the Lean Obama category instead of out of the category and into the Toss Up area.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Mexico
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 1 comments
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