Friday, August 24, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/24/12)

Things slowed down on the state-level presidential trial heat polling front on Friday, but it was pretty active compared to the last few Fridays.

New State Polls (8/24/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/21-8/22
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
44
5
+4
+2.89
Missouri
8/22
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
46
3
+1
+4.79
Virginia
8/23
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
47
3
0
+2.61

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
There is a pretty tight range of polls in Colorado. Throw out the most recent Q-poll (Romney +5) and you are left with polls that tip toward Obama by anywhere from one to five points. This poll fits that bill. It is right on the FHQ average for Romney's share of support and just slightly overestimates where Obama is according to us.

Missouri:
Changes (August 24)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean RomneyToss Up Romney
I think I'm done commenting on Missouri for now. Every time FHQ mentions that Missouri is back in the lean category to stay, a new poll is released that pulls the weighted average under the 5% mark. The data certainly backs up the argument that Missouri has shifted toward the Republicans since 2008 and that shift is about five points, give or take. That said, this new Rasmussen poll feels like an outlier, but it is in line with two of the previous three polls in the Show Me state.

Virginia:
A simple question: Does anyone believe that if Missouri is, in fact, Obama +1 that Virginia is a tie? Fine, now flip that question. Those two states don't go together. Colorado and Virginia, perhaps, but not Virginia and Missouri. If Virginia is tied in November, then Missouri is a Romney state. Unlike the Colorado poll, Romney's share is overstated in this poll while Obama's is right on the FHQ weighted average of his share of respondents in Old Dominion polling.



I alluded to it above, but there is a certain order to these states in terms of the electoral college. We can begin to think of states in this way. For instance, a tie in Michigan means that Romney has won all of the states up to Michigan on the Electoral College Spectrum and with it the White House. Similarly, if, as the Spectrum now shows, Florida or North Carolina are ties, then Barack Obama has things wrapped up.

Now, mind you, it is early yet and things are going to change over the next few months, but this is one way that we can begin to use the Spectrum going forward. In other words, be on the lookout for polling mismatches particularly when they come from the same polling outfit.

--
Things were stationary on the map and in the Electoral College Spectrum following the introduction of new data today. Missouri slipped back into the Toss Up Romney category, but kept its spot on the Romney side of North Carolina. Beyond that, it was business as usual in Colorado and Virginia from where the other polls were released.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, Missouri switched back to the way it was the day before yesterday: a Toss Up Romney state within a percentage point of jumping into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:30 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, August 23, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/23/12)

Another day, another eight polls from seven different states. The new data brings some good news for both candidates and creates a couple of minor changes in the FHQ outlook.

New State Polls (8/23/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Connecticut
8/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
51
43
3
+8
+9.84
Florida
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1241 likely voters
49
46
5
+3
+0.26
Michigan
8/18-8/20
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47.5
42
10.5
+5.5
+4.60
Missouri
8/20
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
42
52
7
+10
+5.55
Ohio
8/16-8/21
+/- 3.4%
808 likely voters
49
46
2
+3
+3.53
Ohio
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1253 likely voters
50
44
4
+6
--
Pennsylvania
8/20-8/22
+/- 5.0%
422 likely voters
49
40
--
+9
+6.58
Wisconsin
8/15-8/21
+/- 2.8%
1190 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
+4.73

Polling Quick Hits:
Connecticut:
There has not been a lot of polling in the Nutmeg state, but what data has been released has shown a surprisingly "close" race. Connecticut has tightened more relative to 2008 than most other states. There seems to be a mid- to upper single digit swing back to the Republicans in 2012 compared to 2008, but Connecticut has lurched back a bit further than that. It was a state Obama won by over 20 points and now leads by just under 10 in the FHQ weighted averages.

Florida:
The new Q-poll of Florida continues to show the president ahead in the Sunshine state (versus a Q-poll earlier this month), but that is somewhat at odds with other recent, post-Ryan polling there. The survey is not an outlier as it fits within the pre-existing range established by the data we have available. Florida is a toss up and will likely continue to be for either candidate heading down the stretch.

Michigan:
While there has been some variation in the polling coming out of Michigan, the confluence of information out there has consistently shown President Obama ahead in the five point range. Some polls have occasionally had Governor Romney in the lead, but this one continues to be a state that hovers around the Lean/Toss Up Obama line.

Changes (August 23)
StateBeforeAfter
ConnecticutLean ObamaStrong Obama
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Missouri:
This Akin insta-poll sample of Missouri from PPP may be a bit wider than the last two polls (a couple of +1 margins for Romney), but it pushes the Show Me state back into the Lean Romney category here at FHQ. And given the aforementioned swing in 2012 relative to 2008, that is likely where nearly-tied-in-2008 Missouri would be expected to be.

Ohio:
If Connecticut is a surprise in its larger change in 2012 compared to 2008 relative to other states, Ohio should be cited for the opposite. The Buckeye state has shifted to the right but only by a couple of points in FHQ's averages as compared to the final tally in 2008. Ohio has proven to be somewhat resistant to uniformly shifting as other states have. Still, the new Ohio Poll hits closer to the FHQ averages than the Q-poll (though the latter is in line with some other polling in the state).

Pennsylvania:
The Muhlenberg poll out of Pennsylvania today puts the margin in the race on the high side of the range of polling that has emerged from the Keystone state. That said, it is still consistent with other polling in the commonwealth and is counterbalanced by polling that has shown the race in the 4-5 point range.

Wisconsin:
Paul Ryan seems to be having an effect on the polling in his home state of Wisconsin. The margin has contracted a couple of points, but still leans in the president's direction.


Despite the flood of new data over the last couple of days, the changes here at FHQ remain minor. And that is, again, by design. The way the averages are set up, they react to changes in polling, but are not too erratic as to be swayed by one outlier survey. There has to be a clear trend. In terms of the electoral college tally, the only clear trends now are that 1) the toss up states favor the president at this point and 2) if there is to be any change to the tally, Florida will likely be the first state to drive that change. [North Carolina is close to a Romney-to-Obama switch, but none of the polling indicates that that is likely to happen. Florida on the other hand...]

On the Electoral College Spectrum, it is still early, but there is a clearly established group of states that will be the targets of campaign efforts down the stretch. Depending on what happens at the convention, that is subject to change, but the light blue/pink states are still the ones that will see the most attention.

No surprise.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, the two category switches (Connecticut and Missouri) stay put, but trade potential switch points. Connecticut is still safely blue, but is right along the Strong/Lean Obama line. Missouri, as FHQ said when it switched in this direction in July, is back to a Lean Romney state and is likely to stay that way; just perhaps on the low end of the category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Lean Romney
to Toss Up Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/22/12)

Wednesday brought eleven new polls into the FHQ weighted averages from nine states. Nine surveys were newly released and two (from California and Georgia) were older polls from July that we are just adding in now.

And yeah, collectively the new additions created some changes in our customary graphics.

New State Polls (8/22/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
California
7/10-7/24
+/- 3.6%
1131 likely voters
51
40
7
+11
+18.84
California
8/3-8/7
+/- 3.0%
1041 likely voters
55.6
32.7
8
+22.9
--
Florida
8/20
+/- 3.8%
728 likely voters
45
48
--
+3
+0.11
Georgia
7/24
+/- ?.?%
591 likely voters
40.5
49.8
6.6
+9.3
+8.07
Georgia
8/15-8/18
+/- 2.9%
1158 likely voters
46
49
4
+3
--
Massachusetts
8/16-8/19
+/- 2.9%
1115 likely voters
55
39
6
+16
+18.01
Montana
8/20
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
38
55
4
+17
+10.32
Nevada
8/16-8/21
+/- 3.4%
869 likely voters
47
45
4
+2
+4.79
New Mexico
8/21
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
52
38
1
+14
+11.61
Vermont
8/11-8/21
+/- 4.5%
477 registered voters
62
25
8
+37
+34.79
Wisconsin
8/16-8/19
+/- 4.2%
576 likely voters
49
46
4
+3
+4.87

Polling Quick Hits:
[There is an awful lot to unpack in all of these, so this will be a super quick hits.]

California:
Nothing much to see here. The eleven point margin in the July PPIC poll is on the low side, but that was more a function of the Romney share being the highest he has garnered in any other poll of the Golden state than anything else. The Obama share in the poll was well within range of previous polls.

Florida:
Another day, another poll showing a slight Romney lead in the Sunshine state. The former Massachusetts governor has a number of these in recent days following a long dry stretch where Obama held small leads in Florida. The average does continue to creep closer to a tie. For those looking for FHQ's 332-206 electoral college outlook to change, Florida is the first state at which to look.

Georgia:
The Peach state is hardly on the Obama wish list this fall. However, the two most recent polls included in the FHQ weighted averages have pulled the margin between the president and Mitt Romney under the 10 point Strong/Lean line into the Lean Romney area. Georgia is not consequential in determining a winner in the electoral college tally. It is a safe Romney state and fits well -- as it did down the stretch in 2008 -- in the lean area. Keep in mind that FHQ will change the parameters of these categories -- shrinking them -- as we approach election day. That will have the effect of moving Georgia into the strong category barring any continued narrowing in the Peach state polling.

Massachusetts:
Well, the Bay state is a blue state. An argument could be made that this is a particularly lackluster showing for Obama there. That said, this PPP survey is not much unchanged from their last poll of the state earlier this year.
Changes (August 22)
StateBeforeAfter
GeorgiaStrong RomneyLean Romney
MontanaLean RomneyStrong Romney
NevadaLean ObamaToss Up Obama

Montana:
In 2008, the margin was anything but big in Big Sky Country between Obama and McCain, but in 2012, the distance between the two contenders vying for the presidency is living up to that name. Consecutive Rasmussen polls have bumped the Treasure state into the Strong Romney designation.

Nevada:
Perhaps more consequentially, the new poll in Nevada from Survey USA eases the Silver state into the Toss Up Obama category. Everyone of the three states highlighted last week -- Wisconsin, Michigan and now Nevada -- have moved from the Lean Obama area into the more competitive toss up distinction. This has had the impact of really squeezing the Lean Obama category. Only Pennsylvania and Oregon remain. That, in turn, makes it harder to resist the urge to treat the Obama side of the ledger in binary -- safe or not for Obama -- terms instead our customary three-tiered approach. [We won't make that change.]

New Mexico:
While there has been some polling volatility in New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment has just not swung back toward the Republicans (2008 vs. 2012) in the way that many other states have. There has been some shift in that direction, but not as much as we have more uniformly witnessed elsewhere. One footnote to New Mexico is that former governor and Libertarian Party nominee, Gary Johnson, has been included in a fair number of polls and has had some impact on any 2012 to 2008 comparison.

Vermont:
It is good to see Rich Clark's (Castleton State) name pop up. He's an old hand for my UGA days. It is also nice to have the data from very blue Vermont to confirm what we all already knew: chalk those three electoral votes up for Obama.

Wisconsin:
There is not much to add today to the picture in Wisconsin. The Marquette poll shows Obama ahead in the Badger state and while Wisconsin certainly tips in the president's direction, it is safe to call -- and the data backs it up -- it a toss up state.


I won't belabor this too much, but despite the above changes, the electoral college count remains unchanged at 332-206 in favor of the president. Of more consequence -- as alluded to above -- is the shuffling of states on the Electoral College Spectrum. With additions of Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin to the toss up category, the 2012 Spectrum has the look -- at least in terms of how the colors match up but to some extent the states as well -- to 2004. The terrain on which the presidency will be fought and won dominates the most competitive middle column, but has now drawn in the bottom portions of the second column from the left.

I'll have more on this later. I had planned a post comparing the polling at this point in 2004, 2008 and 2012, but the week has filled up quickly. I hope to get to that before I head out for Tampa.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
WI-10
(231)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NV-6
(237)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NH-4
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

New Mexico is off and Nevada is reassigned on the Watch List for today. There are a number of states that are on the cusp on entering the Lean Obama category, but as of now the number of states in that category has dwindled to two.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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