Sunday, August 26, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/26/12)

All tied up in Michigan and Ohio? That was the story from a couple of polls released from the two Rust Belt states on Sunday. The context? Well...

New State Polls (8/26/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Michigan
8/23
+/- 2.74%
1277 likely voters
47
47
3
0
+4.27
Ohio
8/15-8/25
+/- 2.1%
1758 likely voters
45
45
10
0
+3.34

Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan:
FHQ does not mean to suggest that things are not tied in the Great Lakes state -- shifts in polling occur -- but 47 is the mid-point of the Obama range of polling in Michigan. Other than the FMWB poll earlier this week, Romney has not been at the 47% level as he is in the Mitchell Research survey. That has been the former Massachusetts governor's high point in Michigan polling to this point. Michigan is closer than it was in 2008, and it very well could be tied before all is said and done, but at this point it tilts toward Obama at this point. Going back to a point FHQ made the other day, if Michigan is tied and the order of states in the Electoral College Spectrum is accurate, then Mitt Romney has won the White House with a 2004-like split in the electoral college.

Ohio:
Now, in Ohio a stronger case could be made that things are tied, but only a slightly stronger case. The Buckeye state also leans toward the president now, but this Columbus Dispatch poll mirrors other recent polling showing a tighter race in the state. While Quinnipiac, for example, has seen Obama near the 50% mark in the last couple of polls, the Romney share in those polls is pretty close to the FHQ weighted averages. If anything, those outliers overestimate the Obama share of polling support. That is not some generalizable trend but is popping up within those Q-polls.



Both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged given the updated polling information from today. For all the talk about Michigan and Ohio above, it should not go without saying that the two states are back and right at the victory line (tipping point) level on the Spectrum. That group of light blue states not only between Michigan/Ohio and the partisan line between Florida and North Carolina, but the three states at the bottom of the second column over from the left in the Spectrum are still the states most worth watching (not surprisingly).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Speaking of watching, the Watch List was also stationary today. Michigan stays on but inches closer to being out of danger of slipping back into the Lean category. Ohio, meanwhile, is already in that position.

...off the list.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Saturday, August 25, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/25/12)

Saturday did bring some new polls, but FHQ added some late Friday leftovers as well. All told, there were four polls from three states added to the weighted averages.

New State Polls (8/25/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Massachusetts
8/21
+/- 4.0%
592 likely voters
52
41
7
+11
+17.05
Missouri
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
43
50
--
+7
+6.15
Missouri
8/23
+/- 3.4%
1057 likely voters
36.1
53.1
6.6
+17
--
Pennsylvania
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
601 likely voters
51
42
7
+9
+6.74

Polling Quick Hits:
Massachusetts:
Rarely has Massachusetts tipped toward the Republican Party at the presidential level in the modern era. But with the former governor on the ticket perhaps that might change. Well, the Bay state will, barring something very unusual, remain blue in November. Yet, on occasion Mitt Romney closes the gap in polling to a rather small level. This Kimball poll is one of those times. President Obama does not often slide into the lower 50s in Massachusetts and beyond that, this poll represents Romney's high water mark this year. Close poll, not close state.

Missouri:
Changes (August 25)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Hey look! Missouri switched back to Lean Romney again. FHQ won't say much else other than it will be good to get through this post-Akin period in Missouri polling. The Republican senate candidate from Missouri has added some volatility to this one. [Of course, it should be noted that one poll had the margin between Obama and Romney down to one point prior to the Akin comments on rape/abortion.]

Pennsylvania:
Another day, another nine point lead for the president in oft-talked about, swingy Pennsylvania. With numbers like those in the poll sponsored by the Philadelphia Inquirer, it may be that the Keystone state is not all that swingy after all. Compared to the FHQ averages, Romney's share is just off while the Obama share in the poll is about four points above where the the averages have his share of poll respondents.


These polls over the next couple of days and into mid-week are going to be our last round of pre-convention surveys. The data is likely to shift after that point and with it the tally in our electoral college outlook; something that has held steady since FHQ began charting this in mid-July. States over that time span have traded categories but have not crossed the partisan line to the red or blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum below filters that same data a bit differently. And while there have been fluctuations on the chart, what has developed is a pretty clear rank order of states; particularly those in the middle column where the most data is available. Most of the toss up states lean toward Obama at this point, but that is subject to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Missouri is off based on the wide gap in the Gravis survey there. That Romney +17  has Missouri deeper into the Lean Romney category, but it is still the lean state with the smallest margin on that side of the partisan line.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Friday, August 24, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/24/12)

Things slowed down on the state-level presidential trial heat polling front on Friday, but it was pretty active compared to the last few Fridays.

New State Polls (8/24/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
8/21-8/22
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
44
5
+4
+2.89
Missouri
8/22
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
46
3
+1
+4.79
Virginia
8/23
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
47
47
3
0
+2.61

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
There is a pretty tight range of polls in Colorado. Throw out the most recent Q-poll (Romney +5) and you are left with polls that tip toward Obama by anywhere from one to five points. This poll fits that bill. It is right on the FHQ average for Romney's share of support and just slightly overestimates where Obama is according to us.

Missouri:
Changes (August 24)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriLean RomneyToss Up Romney
I think I'm done commenting on Missouri for now. Every time FHQ mentions that Missouri is back in the lean category to stay, a new poll is released that pulls the weighted average under the 5% mark. The data certainly backs up the argument that Missouri has shifted toward the Republicans since 2008 and that shift is about five points, give or take. That said, this new Rasmussen poll feels like an outlier, but it is in line with two of the previous three polls in the Show Me state.

Virginia:
A simple question: Does anyone believe that if Missouri is, in fact, Obama +1 that Virginia is a tie? Fine, now flip that question. Those two states don't go together. Colorado and Virginia, perhaps, but not Virginia and Missouri. If Virginia is tied in November, then Missouri is a Romney state. Unlike the Colorado poll, Romney's share is overstated in this poll while Obama's is right on the FHQ weighted average of his share of respondents in Old Dominion polling.



I alluded to it above, but there is a certain order to these states in terms of the electoral college. We can begin to think of states in this way. For instance, a tie in Michigan means that Romney has won all of the states up to Michigan on the Electoral College Spectrum and with it the White House. Similarly, if, as the Spectrum now shows, Florida or North Carolina are ties, then Barack Obama has things wrapped up.

Now, mind you, it is early yet and things are going to change over the next few months, but this is one way that we can begin to use the Spectrum going forward. In other words, be on the lookout for polling mismatches particularly when they come from the same polling outfit.

--
Things were stationary on the map and in the Electoral College Spectrum following the introduction of new data today. Missouri slipped back into the Toss Up Romney category, but kept its spot on the Romney side of North Carolina. Beyond that, it was business as usual in Colorado and Virginia from where the other polls were released.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
MA-11
(119)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
IL-20
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List? Well, Missouri switched back to the way it was the day before yesterday: a Toss Up Romney state within a percentage point of jumping into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Missouri
from Toss Up Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 4:30 PM 0 comments
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