Monday, August 27, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/27/12)

On the kinda sorta opening day of the Republican National Convention in Tampa (or really any day really), it is never a bad thing to add polling data from the two closest states in FHQ's weight averages. And that is exactly what we got today: a handful of surveys from Florida and North Carolina.

What did they reveal?

More of the same.

New State Polls (8/27/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
8/22-8/26
+/- 3.5%
776 likely voters
50
46
3
+4
+0.44
North Carolina
8/22-8/26
+/- 3.5%
766 likely voters
47
48
3
0
+0.85
North Carolina
8/19-8/23
+/- 4.3%
540 registered voters
43
43
8
+1
--

Polling Quick Hits:
Florida:
FHQ will not call the new CNN/Time survey of likely voters in Florida an outlier, but there are a couple of things that separate it from other surveys of the Sunshine state. The margin is not out of the ordinary, but the president's share is overstated as compared to the extant polling data. Are there polls where Obama is at or above the 50% mark? Yes, but they are few and far between and represent the high point for Obama in the state. The Romney share is entirely consistent with both other polls and the FHQ averages in Florida. Overall, the poll resembles the Quinnipiac poll that was released late last week.

North Carolina:
The Tarheel state continues to defy the uniform national swing theory in poll after poll. For every poll that indicates that Romney is stretching out to a small lead there is a corresponding poll or two showing that North Carolina is poised to repeat its level of near two-party presidential vote parity from four years ago. That is the case in the two surveys made public today. Does the Old North State tip toward Romney? It does, but by a very slim margin at this point in the race.

[One footnote to this pair of polls is that the Survey USA/High Point University poll is a survey of registered voters. Though we have not witnessed a significant shift toward Romney in the registered to likely voter shifts that most polling outlets are in the midst of now and over the last month, there has been a move in the former Massachusetts governor's direction. Keep that in mind as you comb through the crosstabs linked to above.]


With the picture remaining largely unchanged in these two toss up states, little changes in either the electoral vote tally based on the FHQ weighted averages or in the Electoral College Spectrum below. And if any state was going to alter that tally and where the partisan line lies, it would be Florida and North Carolina. Both remained stationary after the introduction of new polling information today and so do the FHQ graphics. Neither state is likely to be the tipping point state in this election if the order of averages below holds, but both states are crucial in the electoral vote calculus of both campaigns.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List adds Florida, but that is due to an oversight on my part and not a change in the fundamental outlook in the Sunshine state. It will be added to reflect the change in Florida early last week on August 21.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 5:00 PM 0 comments
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Sunday, August 26, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/26/12)

All tied up in Michigan and Ohio? That was the story from a couple of polls released from the two Rust Belt states on Sunday. The context? Well...

New State Polls (8/26/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Michigan
8/23
+/- 2.74%
1277 likely voters
47
47
3
0
+4.27
Ohio
8/15-8/25
+/- 2.1%
1758 likely voters
45
45
10
0
+3.34

Polling Quick Hits:
Michigan:
FHQ does not mean to suggest that things are not tied in the Great Lakes state -- shifts in polling occur -- but 47 is the mid-point of the Obama range of polling in Michigan. Other than the FMWB poll earlier this week, Romney has not been at the 47% level as he is in the Mitchell Research survey. That has been the former Massachusetts governor's high point in Michigan polling to this point. Michigan is closer than it was in 2008, and it very well could be tied before all is said and done, but at this point it tilts toward Obama at this point. Going back to a point FHQ made the other day, if Michigan is tied and the order of states in the Electoral College Spectrum is accurate, then Mitt Romney has won the White House with a 2004-like split in the electoral college.

Ohio:
Now, in Ohio a stronger case could be made that things are tied, but only a slightly stronger case. The Buckeye state also leans toward the president now, but this Columbus Dispatch poll mirrors other recent polling showing a tighter race in the state. While Quinnipiac, for example, has seen Obama near the 50% mark in the last couple of polls, the Romney share in those polls is pretty close to the FHQ weighted averages. If anything, those outliers overestimate the Obama share of polling support. That is not some generalizable trend but is popping up within those Q-polls.



Both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged given the updated polling information from today. For all the talk about Michigan and Ohio above, it should not go without saying that the two states are back and right at the victory line (tipping point) level on the Spectrum. That group of light blue states not only between Michigan/Ohio and the partisan line between Florida and North Carolina, but the three states at the bottom of the second column over from the left in the Spectrum are still the states most worth watching (not surprisingly).

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Speaking of watching, the Watch List was also stationary today. Michigan stays on but inches closer to being out of danger of slipping back into the Lean category. Ohio, meanwhile, is already in that position.

...off the list.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


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Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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Saturday, August 25, 2012

The Electoral College Map (8/25/12)

Saturday did bring some new polls, but FHQ added some late Friday leftovers as well. All told, there were four polls from three states added to the weighted averages.

New State Polls (8/25/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Massachusetts
8/21
+/- 4.0%
592 likely voters
52
41
7
+11
+17.05
Missouri
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
43
50
--
+7
+6.15
Missouri
8/23
+/- 3.4%
1057 likely voters
36.1
53.1
6.6
+17
--
Pennsylvania
8/21-8/23
+/- 4.0%
601 likely voters
51
42
7
+9
+6.74

Polling Quick Hits:
Massachusetts:
Rarely has Massachusetts tipped toward the Republican Party at the presidential level in the modern era. But with the former governor on the ticket perhaps that might change. Well, the Bay state will, barring something very unusual, remain blue in November. Yet, on occasion Mitt Romney closes the gap in polling to a rather small level. This Kimball poll is one of those times. President Obama does not often slide into the lower 50s in Massachusetts and beyond that, this poll represents Romney's high water mark this year. Close poll, not close state.

Missouri:
Changes (August 25)
StateBeforeAfter
MissouriToss Up RomneyLean Romney
Hey look! Missouri switched back to Lean Romney again. FHQ won't say much else other than it will be good to get through this post-Akin period in Missouri polling. The Republican senate candidate from Missouri has added some volatility to this one. [Of course, it should be noted that one poll had the margin between Obama and Romney down to one point prior to the Akin comments on rape/abortion.]

Pennsylvania:
Another day, another nine point lead for the president in oft-talked about, swingy Pennsylvania. With numbers like those in the poll sponsored by the Philadelphia Inquirer, it may be that the Keystone state is not all that swingy after all. Compared to the FHQ averages, Romney's share is just off while the Obama share in the poll is about four points above where the the averages have his share of poll respondents.


These polls over the next couple of days and into mid-week are going to be our last round of pre-convention surveys. The data is likely to shift after that point and with it the tally in our electoral college outlook; something that has held steady since FHQ began charting this in mid-July. States over that time span have traded categories but have not crossed the partisan line to the red or blue side of the ledger.

The Electoral College Spectrum below filters that same data a bit differently. And while there have been fluctuations on the chart, what has developed is a pretty clear rank order of states; particularly those in the middle column where the most data is available. Most of the toss up states lean toward Obama at this point, but that is subject to change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
NJ-14
(160)
MI-16
(257)
AZ-11
(167)
MS-6
(55)
RI-4
(10)
WA-12
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
ND-3
(49)
HI-4
(14)
NM-5
(177)
CO-9
(284/263)
MT-3
(140)
AL-9
(46)
NY-29
(43)
MN-10
(187)
VA-13
(297/254)
WV-5
(137)
KY-8
(37)
MD-10
(53)
CT-7
(194)
IA-6
(303/241)
IN-11
(132)
KS-6
(29)
CA-55
(108)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
SC-9
(121)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(128)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
LA-8
(112)
OK-7
(20)
MA-11
(139)
NV-6
(227)
MO-10
(191)
NE-5
(104)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
NH-4
(231)
TN-11
(181)
AR-6
(99)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
WI-10
(241)
SD-3
(170)
TX-38
(93)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 272 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Missouri is off based on the wide gap in the Gravis survey there. That Romney +17  has Missouri deeper into the Lean Romney category, but it is still the lean state with the smallest margin on that side of the partisan line.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Connecticut
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Michigan
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Strong Obama
to Lean Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
North Carolina
from Toss Up Romney
to Toss Up Obama
West Virginia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Wisconsin
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
1 Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Please see:


Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
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