The Electoral College Map (9/12/12)

Wednesday brought a flurry of new surveys from Public Policy Polling, but also a long overdue update on the state of the race in Texas. All told there were six new polls in six states. Most were consistent with the picture painted by previous polling data -- at least in terms of overall FHQ categorization of states -- with two exceptions.

New State Polls (9/12/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
California	Survey USA	9/9-9/11	+/- 4.3%	524 likely voters	57	35	3	+21	+19.22
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	9/8-9/11	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	37	--	+10	+4.72
Montana	Public Policy Polling	9/10-9/11	+/- 3.8%	656 likely voters	45	50	5	+5	+9.01
New Mexico	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- ?.?%	1122 likely voters	53	42	5	+11	+10.43
Texas	Wilson Perkins Allen	9/9-9/11	+/- 4.3%	1004 likely voters	40	55	3	+15	+14.21
Washington	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- ?.?%	563 likely voters	53	42	5	+11	+12.46

Polling Quick Hits:
California:
Take California and put it in the same category with Illinois and Massachusetts from yesterday. The Golden state is as safe an Obama state as those two states were/are and will likely continue to be between now and election day. The pattern has been pretty clear with the president lodged in the 50s and Mitt Romney having gained some traction in the mid- to upper 30s. If California finds its way over to the Romney side of the ledger on election day, it will be a long night for the Obama campaign. And there just simply isn't any evidence to suggest that as of now. Things may be close nationally, but they aren't in California.

Michigan:
The Great Lake state is one of those exceptions alluded to above. Consistently, Michigan has been in the range that puts it right on the line between a toss up or a lean state. But the poll from EPIC/MRA did not give that impression. No, at +10 Obama, it gave the impression that the Charlotte convention and its occasional focus on Michigan/the auto industry bailout buoyed the president's chances there compared to the most recent -- and tighter poll -- from the firm. The reality is that it isn't so much the president's position that is noteworthy in this survey. Obama's share of support is in line with where it has been all along in Michigan. It is, however, Romney's share of support driving the margin here. The former Massachusetts governor's level of support is nearly at its nadir in Michigan polling for the year in this poll. And this follows a period on which Romney had climbed out of the lower 40s to a more recent and consistent position in the mid-40s there. This poll may or may not be an outlier -- FHQ would say that it is -- but if it is not, it is certainly on the extreme periphery of the the data, especially if we factor in the trajectory of recent polling in the state.

Montana:

Changes (September 12)
State	Before	After
Montana	Strong Romney	Lean Romney

In Big Sky country, things continue to fluctuate. Overall, Montana is around where it "should" be on the Electoral College Spectrum: huddled around other states it coexisted with four years ago (Arizona, Georgia and South Dakota). Which is to say that Montana is constantly hovering on the line between being a strong or lean Romney state. Partly that is a function of the scant amount of polling that has been done in Montana. But the other part of what is driving the back and forth between those two categories here at FHQ is that there are only two pollsters actively working the state. Intra-firm there is some consistency in the polls over time. Inter-firm, however, there is not. PPP has shown a tighter race in the Treasure state than Rasmussen has. Since PPP has the latest addition, the overall weighted average in Montana has closed some and at this point settled in the lean Romney range.

New Mexico:
New Mexico is similar to Montana in that there have has been some polling variability there that is not typical of a great many states during 2012. The force behind the volatility, though, is different. Instead of it being a function of two polling outlets with internally consistent polling over time, but comparatively inconsistent results, the New Mexico fluctuations are a matter of who is included in the answer set in a poll. If Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, is included, then the New Mexico surveys tend to be closer. But if Johnson is not added to the answer set of the presidential preference question, the margin between Obama and Romney tends to be wider. PPP has typically included Gary Johnson in its surveys of New Mexico, but did this poll for a private client who did not ask for Johnson to be included. That's all well and good. FHQ certainly has no problem with that decision. But this is a good point to highlight the differences in those two types of polls. It is the policy of FHQ to include polling data with Johnson if he is on the ballot in that state. [And he is on the ballot in 37 or 38 states as of my last count.] However, it should also be noted that third party candidates typically overperform in polls relative to the actual portion of the vote they receive on election day. Take, then, the Johnson numbers with a grain of salt.

Texas:
See California, but in reverse. Texas is as safe a Romney state as you will find. Well, that isn't entirely true. Utah and Oklahoma (among others) may take exception to that statement, but Texas is safely red for 2012 nonetheless. The bonus here is that we get an update to what is happening in Texas; not so much to indicate a big change as much as to confirm what we already thought we knew but didn't have any recent evidence to back it up. The one clear pattern in the Texas data is that Romney seems to have consolidated the Republicans in Texas after he essentially wrapped up the nomination back April. The former governor has been over the 50% mark ever since with Obama locking in a share of respondents ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. This poll from WRA is consistent with that finding.

Washington:
Another day and another poll in Washington. The Evergreen state is another example of a state where the candidates have staked out a particular share of the respondents in recent polling and are sticking there. Very much like in Texas -- but reversed -- Obama is comfortably ahead, pulling in the support of over 50% in recent polls while Romney has fluctuated in an upper 30s to lower 40s range. Again, this most recent poll is consistent with that and did not fundamentally shake up the outlook in Washington.

There were a number of new polls out today, and for the first time in a while we witnessed a category change for one state. Montana shifted back over into the Lean Romney category from the Strong Romney category. That changes the map just a touch, but that is it. And while that didn't move Montana on the Electoral College Spectrum, it did reshade the Treasure state there. There was other movement in the rank ordering of states. Texas jumped both Arkansas and West Virginia to a slightly more competitive position, but still very much in the heart of the Strong Romney category. New Mexico and Minnesota also switched places, but both remain on the periphery of jumping into the Lean Obama designation. Finally, the outlier poll forced Michigan to relinquish its spot next to Ohio in the middle -- most competitive column -- in the Spectrum, but it is now even more clustered with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Only eight one-hundreths of a point separate those three in the FHQ weighted averages. If the order here is accurate, those states would very likely move together -- for Obama or for Romney -- instead of splitting up among the candidates on election day. Of course, if they go for the former Massachusetts governor that likely also means he has won in the other toss up states to get there. But that is an uphill climb for Romney as we mentioned yesterday.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
HI-4 (14)	MN-10 (182)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (187)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	CT-7 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NH-4 (225)	TN-11 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	MI-16 (241)	MO-10 (180)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (251)	SD-3 (170)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Montana remains on the Watch List but is now within a fraction of a point of shifting back into the Strong Romney category. As was mentioned above, that seems to be largely dependent upon which firm polls the state next. If it is a Rasmussen poll, then Montana will very likely jump back into the safest Romney category. The rest of the list remains intact with Florida and the four lean/toss up Obama states as the ones to pay particular attention to. Bear in mind as you do that polling in most of those states has already kind of dug in to its current position. It will take a sweeping change over a series of polls to change that outlook.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/11/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/9/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/7/12)

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The Electoral College Map (9/11/12)

The day began slowly on the polling front, and that was good considering FHQ had to incorporate a couple of surveys from yesterday. However, as the day wore on the frequency of releases picked up some steam. All told, FHQ added the data from nine new polls in nine states into our averages.

New State Polls (9/11/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Arizona	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- ?.?%	993 likely voters	44	53	4	+9	+7.19
Florida	Survey USA	9/7-9/9	+/- 4.1%	596 likely voters	48	44	5	+4	+0.55
Illinois	We Ask America	9/5	+/- 2.8%	1382 likely voters	54	37	6	+17	+20.94
Massachusetts	Kimball Political Consulting	9/7-9/9	+/- 3.5%	756 likely voters	55.4	39.2	5.4	+16.2	+16.95
Minnesota	Survey USA	9/6-9/9	+/- 4.3%	551 likely voters	50	40	--	+10	+10.75
North Carolina	Survey USA/Civitas	9/4-9/6	+/- 4.5%	500 registered voters	43	53	1	+10	+1.50
Ohio	Gravis Marketing	9/7-9/8	+/- 2.7%	1548 likely voters	47.27	43.19	--	+4.08	+3.06
Virginia	Gravis Marketing	9/8-9/9	+/- 2.2%	2238 likely voters	44.04	49.39	--	+5.34	+2.23
Washington	Survey USA	9/7-9/9	+/- 4.4%	524 likely voters	54	38	4	+16	+12.72

Polling Quick Hits:
Arizona:
Public Policy Polling, as it turns out, has been the major polling player in Arizona in 2012. Of the twelve publicly available surveys conducted, five are from PPP. And those polls have generally been favorable to the president. Favorable or not, Obama still trails Mitt Romney in the Grand Canyon state. The president's vote share in this poll is just 1.5 points ahead of his FHQ weighted average in Arizona, whereas this poll shows Romney a little more than three points above his FHQ average there. That is a data point more than anything else, but the simple truth of the matter is that both candidates' positions in this poll are within the range of the preexisting data we have in Arizona. It is a solid lean to Romney at the moment.

Florida:
There has not been a Survey USA poll in Florida since July and since that time much has changed, but nothing much has changed. At least in comparison to the earlier Survey USA poll, Obama has held steady while Romney has tracked up a point. Of course, the polling from other firms has oscillated through the many other polls that have been conducted in between with the overall trajectory narrowing in the Sunshine state. In the aggregate that has pointed toward the slightest of edges for Obama which may or may not make this poll evidence of a bump in the president's direction post-convention.

Illinois:
Meh. Does anyone have Illinois drifting over to the Republican side of the ledger in this election? I'll field that: No, not really. The polling has been clear in the president's home state and the latest We Ask America -- new to Illinois polling thus far this cycle -- survey backs that up.

Massachusetts:
See Illinois, but with the caveat that Kimball has been in the field in the Bay state already this year (last month). That August poll was the last poll conducted there and showed a slightly smaller, but still strong, Obama advantage.

Minnesota:
Now, while in terms of the FHQ color scheme Minnesota may look like Illinois and Massachusetts. It is not. Minnesota is the one upper midwest state that has seen very little polling considering some of its neighbors -- Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin -- have all been either competitive or trending more that way of late. In July it looked as if the Land of 10,000 Lakes was following suit, closing to a six point Obama lead that represented the smallest advantage for the president in any of the Minnesota polls. Following the Democrats' convention in Charlotte, though, that lead has stretched out again to where it had been in the surveys released prior to that July Survey USA poll. And frankly, this latest Survey USA effort there nearly hits the FHQ average in Minnesota almost perfectly.

North Carolina:
This is an odd poll for so many reason; not the least of which is the fact that rarely is there a poll of North Carolina that has shown either candidate up by more than five points. While it is unusual, it has happened and it always goes in Mitt Romney's direction. That is true in this instance as well, but it doesn't make the poll any less an outlier in the context of other Tar Heel state polling. When you factor in the fact that the sample was of registered -- and not likely -- voters, the ten point Romney lead is even more eye-opening. The registered-to-likely voter shift that most polling outfits are in at the moment is one that is that is seen as advantageous to the Republican nominee. In other words, Obama should gain something from this being a poll of registered voters. Yet, the president is down by more here than he has been in several other likely voter samples of North Carolina. That said, this poll is consistent with the Survey USA poll sponsored by High Point University last week as far as Obama's share of responses goes. However, the Romney share has ballooned to above the 50% mark compared to last week. The former Massachusetts governor has seen that level of support -- though not quite this high -- in North Carolina before, but overall it has been the exception rather than the rule.

Ohio:
If anything can be said about the Gravis Marketing polls in Ohio over the last three weeks it is that both candidates received bumps out of their respective conventions. The race went from a virtual tie in the Gravis poll prior to the conventions to a Romney advantage post-Tampa and then an Obama lead following Charlotte. This poll and the PPP survey released yesterday are both riding a bit above the FHQ weighted average margin in the Buckeye state and both are slightly overstating the candidates' respective shares of support, but both are within range of where the data in Ohio has been. The closing that typified the polling there before the conventions has been reversed. But the question that remains is for how long?

Virginia:
One question that FHQ posed a couple of weeks ago -- or at least one thing to look at when poll watching -- is how various polls from the same firm in different states match up against how those states are aligned in the Electoral College Spectrum. The expectation in Virginia is that it would fairly closely resemble the patterns exhibited in Iowa, Colorado and Ohio. But in looking at the survey released by Gravis from the Old Dominion that obviously is not the case. One of these polls is off the mark, and it probably isn't the Ohio poll above. There have been ties and there have been slight Romney leads (up to +5 once in June), but as was the case with the Civitas poll in North Carolina, those polls have been polling variability exceptions and not rules. Virginia has closed ever so slightly, but this poll is likely an outlier given the boost the president has received in most polls after Charlotte. [Of course, using the same sort of logic, it is hard to fathom how Florida is +4 Obama and North Carolina is +10 Romney across a couple of Survey USA polls.]

Washington:
Washington state is more like Minnesota in that both have similar averages, but has behaved more like both Illinois and Massachusetts in terms of the overall consistency of polling in the Evergreen state. Part of that is attributable to Survey USA being the only pollster with surveys in the field in Washington since July. Mitt Romney has barely budged over that time span in those polls while Barack Obama has seen his support buoyed in the same period (though unchanged since the August survey).

After all those additions, we have stasis on the electoral college map. FHQ continues to be struck by just how little movement there has been since we began tracking the polls here in mid-July. There have not been many category shifts and there have been no shifts across the partisan line. The expectation all along has been that some of these toss up states would begin to move toward Romney (or into his column) sooner rather than later, but to this point -- whether owing to the methodology here (It is less reactive than most) or something else -- that has not manifested itself. The race is still on the 332-206 tally with Obama ahead in all the states within five percentage points in the averages tipping toward the president with the exception of North Carolina. It is still early and the dust is still very much settling from the conventions, but that movement is going to have to set in or begin to set in fairly quickly for Romney to effectively make up the ground in the five states (Ohio through Florida on the Spectrum below) necessary to cross the 270 electoral vote barrier. That and the fact that the race has been so stationary nationally and in many of the most important states is the bad news from the Republican nominee's perspective. The good news is that FHQ has all of those five states within 3.06 points of the partisan line separating both candidates' groups of states.

Even with some outliers above, the line up in the Electoral College Spectrum changed only slightly. Washington and New Jersey flipped slots, but other than that the most consequential shaded with the lightest colors held onto their spots, reconfirming what the prior data had already told us.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	MI-16 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
HI-4 (14)	MN-10 (182)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (187)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	CT-7 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NV-6 (227)	TN-11 (191)	AR-6 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	NH-4 (231)	MO-10 (180)	WV-5 (98)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (241)	SD-3 (170)	TX-38 (93)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

There were no states added or subtracted from the Watch List today. That group of four states straddling the Lean Obama and Toss Up Obama line is still the group most worth watching. If they collectively or individually begin to move deeper into the Toss Up category, it only bolsters Romney's chances -- or expands his paths to 270. Florida remains the biggest opportunity to see a shake up in the electoral vote tally, but has seemingly moved toward Obama since being very nearly tied in the averages during mid-August.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/9/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/7/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/4/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Electoral College Map (9/9/12)

Perhaps FHQ should start the week by talking about where the presidential race stands in the wake of the Democratic convention down the road from us in Charlotte. But the truth is that there will be plenty of time to assess the state of the race -- or state of the bounce coming out of Charlotte -- in the week(s) to come. No, what I would like to open with is a discussion of state-level presidential polls in general. Rightly or wrongly, there was something of an assault on Public Policy Polling from some on the right over the weekend. [And if you didn't get to see my Twitter back and forth on this with conservative Washington Post blogger, Jennifer Rubin, go check it out in the FHQ Twitter feed.]

I honestly don't get it. The firm has been transparent with their data in the over four years that FHQ has been following polling first for the 2008 general election and then stretching back to 2009 for some of the company's earliest 2012 trial heats. The simple truth is that even then there were some quirky things in their results. But that is true of all -- ALL -- polling firms. We here at FHQ chalk that up to polling/sampling variability -- nothing more, nothing less. Those are the breaks in the polling game; a game that is only getting more difficult in terms of actually being able to contact people and draw a representative sample these days.

To make a long point short, I have never found anything wrong with PPP. When their surveys are on the money, I say so. When other polls miss the mark, I also say so -- as I did with their Michigan poll just last week. The point is all about context, and that is something that FHQ strives to provide when adding and then commenting on new polling data added to our dataset. FHQ includes PPP surveys because everyone of our peers -- if we can call Real Clear Politics, HuffPo Pollster and the TPM Poll Tracker as peers -- does as well.

Speaking of context...

New State Polls (9/9/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
New Mexico1	Research & Polling/Albuquerque Journal	9/3-9/6	+/- 3.8%	667 likely voters	45	40	8	+5	+10.30
North Carolina	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- 3.0%	1087 likely voters	49	48	3	+1	+1.00
Ohio	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- 3.0%	1072 likely voters	50	45	5	+5	+3.01
1 The poll numbers used from the Research & Polling survey of New Mexico include Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor received the support of 7% of the respondents. There was no other version of the poll without Johnson included in the release, so the impact of his inclusion in the toplines is not at all clear in this instance.

Polling Quick Hits:
New Mexico:
The new Research and Polling survey of New Mexico done for the Albuquerque Journal jumps off the page at you at first glance. It is closer -- much closer than the overall FHQ weighted average might otherwise indicate -- than some recent polls, but is in line with other surveys of the Land of Enchantment that have also included former New Mexico governor and current Libertarian Party presidential nominee, Gary Johnson, as an option in the question's answer set. The governor has routinely polled in the lower teens in the few surveys in which he has been included, but in this poll, he is at his nadir for the year to date at just 7%. Even that seems high. More importantly, neither major party presidential campaign has sunk any significant money into New Mexico. American Crossroads has been on the air there to perhaps lay the groundwork for a Romney campaign entry into the state. That, however, has yet to happen in any concerted way. The Romney (and Obama folks) seem much more intent to take the battle to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

North Carolina:
Stubborn North Carolina continues to be just that in a follow up to last week's Public Policy Polling survey of the Old North state, stubborn. Unlike most other states that have shifted back toward the Republicans since 2008, the Tar Heel state has barely budged. A narrow one point edge -- and that's rounding up -- on election day is still a one point edge now and it has been throughout the period that FHQ has been averaging the polls in 2012. Simply put, North Carolina is much tighter than it "should" be if one expects a uniform national shift to apply equally in all states. That has been true in our weighted averages and using other metrics.

Ohio:
And North Carolina is not the only "stubborn" state. Ohio has actually moved less than North Carolina; tightly hovering around the same two party breakdown the Buckeye state exhibited in 2008. And while the just-released PPP survey finds something of a bounce for Obama in Ohio, it is in line with other polling in the state of late. Obama (re-)hits his apex in the state in terms of his share of responses while Romney hits the heart of his share (44-46% in most recent polls) at 45%. On some level, this survey is out of line with other recent polls in the Buckeye state, but this is the first post-Democratic convention poll of Ohio and it will take data from other firms to draw a more robust picture of where the race is. Margin-wise, this one overshoots the FHQ average that is right at +3 for Obama. That number has been as consistent as the +1 for Romney in North Carolina.

Surprise, surprise: None of these polls did anything to fundamentally reshape the overall outlook in either the map or the Electoral College Spectrum. Ohio is still just as important to Mitt Romney as it was before the PPP survey data was added and North Carolina remains a state that the Obama campaign would like to hold on to -- or at least keep close -- if only to force the Romney team to work to flip a state that only handed the president its 15 electoral votes by the slimmest of margins (save Missouri) in 2008.¹ Compared to four years ago, Obama and the Democrats are understandably playing more defense than offense, so having some areas where the incumbent can force the challenger to spend defensively is a cushion of sorts. There are not many of those for the Obama campaign. The Akin situation may or may not have opened the door in Missouri. If it did, the Obama folks are not taking any overt advantage of the opening. The race to 270 is about Romney flipping the states between North Carolina and Ohio on the spectrum and forcing the Democrats -- in the most ideal situation -- to expend valuable and finite resources in the Michigan through Nevada group of states on the spectrum.

But following convention season, the Republican nominee is seemingly having trouble moving the needle on the first step much less moving on to the second described above.

There was one shift on the Electoral College Spectrum: New Mexico, with the introduction of new data, jumped Minnesota one spot closer to the partisan line separating the two candidates groups of states.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	NJ-14 (160)	MI-16 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	WA-12 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
HI-4 (14)	MN-10 (182)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (187)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	CT-7 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NV-6 (227)	TN-11 (191)	AR-6 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	NH-4 (231)	MO-10 (180)	WV-5 (98)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (241)	SD-3 (170)	TX-38 (93)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

That means, given that Minnesota has not left the list, that New Mexico rejoins the Watch List of states that are within a fraction of a point of switching to a new category (see footnote in table for more). The Land of Enchantment is now within a point of moving into the Lean Obama category, but with a couple of caveats. First, there has not been a whole lot of polling conducted in New Mexico. Secondly, and related to the first point, polling and the averages have fluctuated when Gary Johnson is included in polls that draw the margin closer there. This +5 for Obama may be the start the trajectory turning downward for Obama in the state or it could simply be a function of poll including Johnson in the answer set, driving both major party candidates' shares of support and the margin between them down. In other words, watch New Mexico along with the others on the list, but do so with these two factors in mind.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

--
¹ See the comments section for a clarification on this point.

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