The Electoral College Map (9/13/12)

FHQ added 14 polls from eight states on Thursday to our state-level polling dataset. Other than Missouri, it was all blue states, but there were a host of surveys from some of the most critical toss up states. Colorado, Florida and Ohio -- all within just about 3% of being tied -- all had multiple poll releases to further clarify the battleground landscape (...or to further confirm what we already knew).

New State Polls (9/13/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	OnSight/Keating	9/10-9/11	+/- 4.4%	503 likely voters	49	44	--	+5	+2.92
Colorado	ARG	9/10-9/12	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	49	47	3	+2	--
Florida	McLaughlin & Associates	9/10-9/11	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47.2	49.5	--	+2.3	+0.67
Florida	Rasmussen	9/12	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	48	46	3	+2	--
Florida	NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist	9/9-9/11	+/- 3.1%	980 likely voters	49	44	5	+5	--
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	9/10-9/11	+/- 3.4%	824 likely voters	51	44	5	+7	+9.83
Missouri	Wenzel Strategies	9/10-9/11	+/- 3.3%	850 likely voters	37.6	57.2	5.2	+19.6	+7.37
Missouri	Rasmussen	9/11	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	45	48	3	+3	--
New Hampshire	Granite State Poll: WMUR/UNH	9/4-9/10	+/- 4.0%	588 likely voters	45	40	12	+5	+4.81
New York	Quinnipiac	9/4-9/9	+/- 2.5%	1486 likely voters	62	34	2	+28	+25.30
Ohio	ARG	9/10-9/12	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	47	4	+1	+3.14
Ohio	NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist	9/9-9/11	+/- 3.1%	979 likely voters	50	43	6	+7	--
Ohio	Rasmussen	9/12	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	47	46	3	+1	--
Virginia	NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist	9/9-9/11	+/- 3.1%	996 likely voters	49	44	5	+5	+2.38

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
The picture right now in the Centennial state is for the most part unchanged. Obama has maintained a nearly three point lead over Romney for quite a while now. However, that somewhat masks the fact that the two candidates' shares of support have changed over time in the publicly available polling data. The margin, then, has barely budged -- tracking ever so slightly in the president's direction -- but Obama's share of support in many of these Colorado polls has settled in the 49% range since August. [There are exceptions, but that owes more to the inclusion of Gary Johnson in the surveys than anything else. FHQ discussed that some in the context of New Mexico yesterday.] The two latest additions further demonstrate this. Romney lags behind that mark, having similarly settled -- albeit with slightly more volatility -- in the mid-40s. That is within striking distance, but the the lack of movement in closing the gap is troubling in a state that Romney will almost certainly have to have to get to 270. [Using the Electoral College Spectrum below, Romney could cede Colorado to Obama and still reach 270 if he takes Ohio.]

Florida:
In Florida, the race is tighter than in Colorado, but some of the same factors are at play. The three polls released today serve as something of a microcosm of this. The Obama numbers fall into a 47-49% range while Romney maintains a similar upper bound, but with more variability also has a wider/flatter distribution. The polls in Florida have been that way through much of the tail end of August. Part of that is a function of the conventions, but the pattern is worth eyeing as more information is made available. Does this solidify or does some of the Obama support decay? That is a big question in a state that is as close to a tie as any other state in the nation.

Minnesota:

Changes (September 13)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Strong Obama	Lean Obama

Further north, a likely voter sample from PPP drew the race in the Gopher state closer compared to the previous poll from the firm there. That had the effect of pulling Minnesota out of the Strong Obama category and into the Lean Obama area. While on the high side of that category still, Minnesota "should" probably be a Lean if only because many of its neighbors -- Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin -- have proven to be more competitive than the Land of 10,000 Lakes. That is still the case, but Minnesota stood out as Strong state in a sea of light blue Toss Ups. To get a measure of this, the PPP survey was hardly Obama's worst in the state, but the 44% support Romney garnered is by far the former governor's best posting there this year. In total, that makes Minnesota a Lean, but only just barely.

Missouri:
The post-Akin volatility continues in the Show-Me state. It is hard to get more disparate than two polls with a 17 gap in margins in 2012. We simply haven't seen a whole lot of that in any states. But the polling has been all over the map in Missouri since the Akin situation arose. No matter how you slice it, though, Romney leads with rare exception in every poll and has a solid lead in the FHQ weighted averages that place the state firmly in the Lean Romney area. That makes the Rasmussen poll a bit closer to reality than the Wenzel survey. The most interesting aspect of this is that Missouri just is not a Toss Up in 2012 and was only really one in 2008 because the national environment was tilted so much toward the Democrats. Most, I would imagine, would have been surprised in 2000 if I had told you Missouri would not be a swing state in 2012. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

New Hampshire:
One state that has not changed in that time is New Hampshire. Tight in 2000, the Granite state is still competitive in 2012. That may technically be true, but New Hampshire has consistently been in the +5 Obama range throughout 2012 (including this latest WMUR poll). That is close enough to make it a target of both campaigns, but the consistency of the polls throughout is also enough to make you wonder how quickly we will have to see the trajectory begin to change -- close from the Romney campaign perspective -- in order to keep it that way.

New York:
It is nice to get the data from New York, but the outlook in the Empire state is not really changing just as was the case for California a day ago. New York is a safe blue state for Obama and this Q poll released today does little to alter that thinking.

Ohio:
Much has been and will be written about the importance of Ohio in the race for 270. It certainly occupies a significant position in the FHQ calculus. There are several states in between Romney and Ohio in terms of getting to that threshold and that is less troublesome from the Romney vantage point if one assumes a uniform shift in the governor's direction nationally likely pushes a healthy chunk of Toss Ups his way. But the resiliency of the polls continues to stand as a major roadblock to that type of shift and no state better typifies that than Ohio. Of course, we are still in the post-convention bounce period where some volatility is a given. Still, Obama has trailed in only two (of 12) polls in Ohio since the calendar flipped from July to August, and the president has maintained around a three point lead throughout while pushing close to the 50% post-Charlotte. Romney is not likely to win states like Michigan or Wisconsin without also winning Ohio and would need one of both of those states to to offset losing Ohio to get to 270. That remains a tall order.

Virginia:
Virginia is in a group of states -- Colorado and Ohio are the others -- that are all in the +2-3 Obama range. Those states are all fairly likely to swing together on November 6. That makes it all the more interesting that in the series of NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls that Florida and Virginia were both identical five point leads for the president. Ohio, meanwhile, was a +7 for Obama. Now sure, this is likely just statistical noise, but given the emerging patterns here at FHQ, the expectation is that Virginia is closer to Ohio than to Florida; that Florida would be the first to flip and Virginia, Colorado, Ohio (and Iowa too) would be the next level for Romney to attack.

None of the laundry list of polls in any of those Toss Up states did anything to shake the order of those states from their moorings. There is an obvious hierarchy of states between Ohio and North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum that the conventions have done little to change. While there was no change there, Minnesota did jump into the Lean Obama category and leaped New Mexico and just barely Connecticut on the Spectrum in the process. New York, too, flipped with Hawaii way out on the extreme Strong end of the Obama side of the ledger. On the Romney side of the partisan line, Missouri pushed past both South Dakota and Arizona in to the second column from the right; out of the most competitive middle column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	MO-10 (166)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (39)	NM-5 (177)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
HI-4 (43)	CT-7 (184)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	MN-10 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NH-4 (225)	TN-11 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	MI-16 (241)	SD-3 (180)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (251)	AZ-11 (177)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Minnesota's change means that instead of being a Strong state on the cusp of moving into the Lean category, the opposite is true. Minnesota has consistently been on or around that line throughout, so the designation changes are more about the proximity to the line than a closing or widening of the gap between Obama and Romney there.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/12/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/9/12)

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The Electoral College Map (9/12/12)

Wednesday brought a flurry of new surveys from Public Policy Polling, but also a long overdue update on the state of the race in Texas. All told there were six new polls in six states. Most were consistent with the picture painted by previous polling data -- at least in terms of overall FHQ categorization of states -- with two exceptions.

New State Polls (9/12/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
California	Survey USA	9/9-9/11	+/- 4.3%	524 likely voters	57	35	3	+21	+19.22
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	9/8-9/11	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47	37	--	+10	+4.72
Montana	Public Policy Polling	9/10-9/11	+/- 3.8%	656 likely voters	45	50	5	+5	+9.01
New Mexico	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- ?.?%	1122 likely voters	53	42	5	+11	+10.43
Texas	Wilson Perkins Allen	9/9-9/11	+/- 4.3%	1004 likely voters	40	55	3	+15	+14.21
Washington	Public Policy Polling	9/7-9/9	+/- ?.?%	563 likely voters	53	42	5	+11	+12.46

Polling Quick Hits:
California:
Take California and put it in the same category with Illinois and Massachusetts from yesterday. The Golden state is as safe an Obama state as those two states were/are and will likely continue to be between now and election day. The pattern has been pretty clear with the president lodged in the 50s and Mitt Romney having gained some traction in the mid- to upper 30s. If California finds its way over to the Romney side of the ledger on election day, it will be a long night for the Obama campaign. And there just simply isn't any evidence to suggest that as of now. Things may be close nationally, but they aren't in California.

Michigan:
The Great Lake state is one of those exceptions alluded to above. Consistently, Michigan has been in the range that puts it right on the line between a toss up or a lean state. But the poll from EPIC/MRA did not give that impression. No, at +10 Obama, it gave the impression that the Charlotte convention and its occasional focus on Michigan/the auto industry bailout buoyed the president's chances there compared to the most recent -- and tighter poll -- from the firm. The reality is that it isn't so much the president's position that is noteworthy in this survey. Obama's share of support is in line with where it has been all along in Michigan. It is, however, Romney's share of support driving the margin here. The former Massachusetts governor's level of support is nearly at its nadir in Michigan polling for the year in this poll. And this follows a period on which Romney had climbed out of the lower 40s to a more recent and consistent position in the mid-40s there. This poll may or may not be an outlier -- FHQ would say that it is -- but if it is not, it is certainly on the extreme periphery of the the data, especially if we factor in the trajectory of recent polling in the state.

Montana:

Changes (September 12)
State	Before	After
Montana	Strong Romney	Lean Romney

In Big Sky country, things continue to fluctuate. Overall, Montana is around where it "should" be on the Electoral College Spectrum: huddled around other states it coexisted with four years ago (Arizona, Georgia and South Dakota). Which is to say that Montana is constantly hovering on the line between being a strong or lean Romney state. Partly that is a function of the scant amount of polling that has been done in Montana. But the other part of what is driving the back and forth between those two categories here at FHQ is that there are only two pollsters actively working the state. Intra-firm there is some consistency in the polls over time. Inter-firm, however, there is not. PPP has shown a tighter race in the Treasure state than Rasmussen has. Since PPP has the latest addition, the overall weighted average in Montana has closed some and at this point settled in the lean Romney range.

New Mexico:
New Mexico is similar to Montana in that there have has been some polling variability there that is not typical of a great many states during 2012. The force behind the volatility, though, is different. Instead of it being a function of two polling outlets with internally consistent polling over time, but comparatively inconsistent results, the New Mexico fluctuations are a matter of who is included in the answer set in a poll. If Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, is included, then the New Mexico surveys tend to be closer. But if Johnson is not added to the answer set of the presidential preference question, the margin between Obama and Romney tends to be wider. PPP has typically included Gary Johnson in its surveys of New Mexico, but did this poll for a private client who did not ask for Johnson to be included. That's all well and good. FHQ certainly has no problem with that decision. But this is a good point to highlight the differences in those two types of polls. It is the policy of FHQ to include polling data with Johnson if he is on the ballot in that state. [And he is on the ballot in 37 or 38 states as of my last count.] However, it should also be noted that third party candidates typically overperform in polls relative to the actual portion of the vote they receive on election day. Take, then, the Johnson numbers with a grain of salt.

Texas:
See California, but in reverse. Texas is as safe a Romney state as you will find. Well, that isn't entirely true. Utah and Oklahoma (among others) may take exception to that statement, but Texas is safely red for 2012 nonetheless. The bonus here is that we get an update to what is happening in Texas; not so much to indicate a big change as much as to confirm what we already thought we knew but didn't have any recent evidence to back it up. The one clear pattern in the Texas data is that Romney seems to have consolidated the Republicans in Texas after he essentially wrapped up the nomination back April. The former governor has been over the 50% mark ever since with Obama locking in a share of respondents ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. This poll from WRA is consistent with that finding.

Washington:
Another day and another poll in Washington. The Evergreen state is another example of a state where the candidates have staked out a particular share of the respondents in recent polling and are sticking there. Very much like in Texas -- but reversed -- Obama is comfortably ahead, pulling in the support of over 50% in recent polls while Romney has fluctuated in an upper 30s to lower 40s range. Again, this most recent poll is consistent with that and did not fundamentally shake up the outlook in Washington.

There were a number of new polls out today, and for the first time in a while we witnessed a category change for one state. Montana shifted back over into the Lean Romney category from the Strong Romney category. That changes the map just a touch, but that is it. And while that didn't move Montana on the Electoral College Spectrum, it did reshade the Treasure state there. There was other movement in the rank ordering of states. Texas jumped both Arkansas and West Virginia to a slightly more competitive position, but still very much in the heart of the Strong Romney category. New Mexico and Minnesota also switched places, but both remain on the periphery of jumping into the Lean Obama designation. Finally, the outlier poll forced Michigan to relinquish its spot next to Ohio in the middle -- most competitive column -- in the Spectrum, but it is now even more clustered with New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Only eight one-hundreths of a point separate those three in the FHQ weighted averages. If the order here is accurate, those states would very likely move together -- for Obama or for Romney -- instead of splitting up among the candidates on election day. Of course, if they go for the former Massachusetts governor that likely also means he has won in the other toss up states to get there. But that is an uphill climb for Romney as we mentioned yesterday.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	AZ-11 (167)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
HI-4 (14)	MN-10 (182)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
NY-29 (43)	NM-5 (187)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	CT-7 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NH-4 (225)	TN-11 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	MI-16 (241)	MO-10 (180)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (251)	SD-3 (170)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Montana remains on the Watch List but is now within a fraction of a point of shifting back into the Strong Romney category. As was mentioned above, that seems to be largely dependent upon which firm polls the state next. If it is a Rasmussen poll, then Montana will very likely jump back into the safest Romney category. The rest of the list remains intact with Florida and the four lean/toss up Obama states as the ones to pay particular attention to. Bear in mind as you do that polling in most of those states has already kind of dug in to its current position. It will take a sweeping change over a series of polls to change that outlook.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Montana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/11/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/9/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/7/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.