The Electoral College Map (9/14/12)

The week closed with eight new polls in eight states. Together they offer a mixed bag of information: a few deeply blue states that are not telling us anything new, a handful of toss up states where Obama is ahead and one lone toss up state in which Romney has the advantage.

New State Polls (9/14/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
California	California Business Roundtable/Pepperdine/M4 Strategies	9/9-9/12	+/- 3.5%	802 likely voters	55.4	33.4	6.9	+22	+19.55
Colorado1	Survey USA/Denver Post	9/9-9/12	+/- 4.0%	615 likely voters	45	44	--	+1	+2.78
Florida	Consensus Communications	9/8-9/11	+/- 4.0%	606 likely voters	42	42	--	0	+0.64
Michigan	Foster McCollum White	9/12	+/- 2.88%	1155 likely voters	45.39	43.65	5.38	+1.74	+4.55
New Jersey	Fairleigh Dickison	9/6-9/12	+/- 3.8%	706 likely voters	52	38	9	+14	+12.50
North Carolina	Rasmussen	9/13	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	45	51	3	+6	+1.75
Virginia	Rasmussen	9/13	+/- 3.3%	500 likely voters	49	48	2	+1	+2.31
Washington	Elway	9/9-9/12	+/- 5.0%	405 likely voters	53	36	--	+17	+13.07
1 The poll numbers used from the Survey USA poll of Colorado include Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor received the support of 3% of the respondents. Obama led the two candidate race 47% to 46% over Romney. That would have raised each candidate's FHQ weighted average but because the margin was the same in both versions, the FHQ margin would have been unaffected.

Polling Quick Hits:
California:
The quick hits have been longer of late, so allow FHQ to actually be quick about California. Blue state, strongly on the Obama side of the partisan line.

Colorado:
With or without Gary Johnson, Obama leads in the Centennial state by a point in the latest Survey USA poll there. With the Libertarian nominee on the questionnaire, though, the president's share is below that  49% level at which he has settled in recent Colorado polling. Romney, too, is pushed to the bottom end of his range in polling done of late. That said, this poll is consistent with the last Johnson-included poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in the wake of the Republican convention in Tampa.

Florida:
As I mentioned in the post intended for yesterday, Florida is essentially tied in the FHQ weighted averages (the closest state we have on the board at the moment), and this Consensus Communications poll backs that idea up. The report on the survey from the firm did not relay any information on the number of undecideds or those supporting other candidates in the poll. But at 42% support for both candidates, this one looks like it did not push leaners into either of the candidate totals and/or simply had an uncharacteristic number of undecideds. Take your pick.

Michigan:
In Michigan, the latest poll from Foster McCollum White provides some statistical balance to the +10 Obama poll from EPIC/MRA earlier in the week. Both honestly feel like outliers. However, both of those polls have shifted in the same direction since their last (pre-convention) releases: toward the president.

New Jersey:
The Garden state is a slightly more competitive -- the margin is narrower -- version of California. Romney has consistently trailed by double digits in New Jersey polls. There are some parallels in this election to 2004, but New Jersey looking deceptively close -- as it did in 2004 -- is not one of those parallels.

North Carolina:
Rasmussen has found Mitt Romney ahead in the Tar Heel state by margins that have been slightly larger than some other polls of North Carolina. That may provide a little extra oomph to the Republican nominee's FHQ weighted average there, but make no mistake that Romney is ahead in North Carolina. In the one toss up state leaning in his direction, Romney has had a pretty good week overall in the North Carolina polls.

Virginia:
For as close as Virginia is, the commonwealth really did not receive the amount of before and inter-convention polling that some other states did.  That has left us with an incomplete picture there. The Gravis poll from earlier in the week seems to be an outlier (The argument then was that it was hard to see Obama with a four point lead in Ohio and have a five point deficit in very similar Virginia.). The temptation is to say that that poll and the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll cancel each other out, but that likely misses one important fact: Throw out the outlier and the two polls that have been released post-convention out of Virginia show the president at 49%. Romney's share fluctuates, but Obama's is consistent. Sure, that could mean that Obama has no room for further growth, but it could also mean that the aggregate convention impact favors Obama just a little. These numbers are worth keeping tabs on if and when the convention bumps show any signs of decay.

Washington:
New Jersey and Washington are within a half a point of each other in the averages and right next to each other on the Electoral College Spectrum. I think it is safe to say "see New Jersey" and move on.

The map after recalibrating slightly in the last couple of days with category shifts in Minnesota and Missouri remained stationary today. The overall tally remains unchanged as it has throughout the length of FHQ's averaging the polls in 2012. Obama still commands a lead built on the fact that the president leads to varying degrees in all of the toss up states but one, North Carolina. And North Carolina part is not likely to change. There was only one minor change to the Electoral College Spectrum. Michigan and Wisconsin switched places. Michigan is now closer to Nevada in the averages than Wisconsin or New Hampshire, but only about 0.3 of separate that quartet of states as of now. There is some distance between that group and the trio of Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, but the group of four states is not absolutely necessary in a Romney win. Each would provide more cushion for the former Massachusetts governor if he is able to make things more uniformly competitive across the toss up states. The Ohio-through-Florida group of states is essential. The other toss ups beyond that are not necessarily.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	MO-10 (166)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (39)	NM-5 (177)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
HI-4 (43)	CT-7 (184)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	MN-10 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NH-4 (225)	TN-11 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (235)	SD-3 (180)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	MI-16 (251)	AZ-11 (177)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

None of the new data changed the outlook on the Watch List. The group of states within a fraction of a point of switching categories remained the same as it was on Thursday.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/13/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/12/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/12)

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The Electoral College Map (9/13/12)

FHQ added 14 polls from eight states on Thursday to our state-level polling dataset. Other than Missouri, it was all blue states, but there were a host of surveys from some of the most critical toss up states. Colorado, Florida and Ohio -- all within just about 3% of being tied -- all had multiple poll releases to further clarify the battleground landscape (...or to further confirm what we already knew).

New State Polls (9/13/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	OnSight/Keating	9/10-9/11	+/- 4.4%	503 likely voters	49	44	--	+5	+2.92
Colorado	ARG	9/10-9/12	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	49	47	3	+2	--
Florida	McLaughlin & Associates	9/10-9/11	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	47.2	49.5	--	+2.3	+0.67
Florida	Rasmussen	9/12	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	48	46	3	+2	--
Florida	NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist	9/9-9/11	+/- 3.1%	980 likely voters	49	44	5	+5	--
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	9/10-9/11	+/- 3.4%	824 likely voters	51	44	5	+7	+9.83
Missouri	Wenzel Strategies	9/10-9/11	+/- 3.3%	850 likely voters	37.6	57.2	5.2	+19.6	+7.37
Missouri	Rasmussen	9/11	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	45	48	3	+3	--
New Hampshire	Granite State Poll: WMUR/UNH	9/4-9/10	+/- 4.0%	588 likely voters	45	40	12	+5	+4.81
New York	Quinnipiac	9/4-9/9	+/- 2.5%	1486 likely voters	62	34	2	+28	+25.30
Ohio	ARG	9/10-9/12	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	48	47	4	+1	+3.14
Ohio	NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist	9/9-9/11	+/- 3.1%	979 likely voters	50	43	6	+7	--
Ohio	Rasmussen	9/12	+/- 4.5%	500 likely voters	47	46	3	+1	--
Virginia	NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist	9/9-9/11	+/- 3.1%	996 likely voters	49	44	5	+5	+2.38

Polling Quick Hits:
Colorado:
The picture right now in the Centennial state is for the most part unchanged. Obama has maintained a nearly three point lead over Romney for quite a while now. However, that somewhat masks the fact that the two candidates' shares of support have changed over time in the publicly available polling data. The margin, then, has barely budged -- tracking ever so slightly in the president's direction -- but Obama's share of support in many of these Colorado polls has settled in the 49% range since August. [There are exceptions, but that owes more to the inclusion of Gary Johnson in the surveys than anything else. FHQ discussed that some in the context of New Mexico yesterday.] The two latest additions further demonstrate this. Romney lags behind that mark, having similarly settled -- albeit with slightly more volatility -- in the mid-40s. That is within striking distance, but the the lack of movement in closing the gap is troubling in a state that Romney will almost certainly have to have to get to 270. [Using the Electoral College Spectrum below, Romney could cede Colorado to Obama and still reach 270 if he takes Ohio.]

Florida:
In Florida, the race is tighter than in Colorado, but some of the same factors are at play. The three polls released today serve as something of a microcosm of this. The Obama numbers fall into a 47-49% range while Romney maintains a similar upper bound, but with more variability also has a wider/flatter distribution. The polls in Florida have been that way through much of the tail end of August. Part of that is a function of the conventions, but the pattern is worth eyeing as more information is made available. Does this solidify or does some of the Obama support decay? That is a big question in a state that is as close to a tie as any other state in the nation.

Minnesota:

Changes (September 13)
State	Before	After
Minnesota	Strong Obama	Lean Obama

Further north, a likely voter sample from PPP drew the race in the Gopher state closer compared to the previous poll from the firm there. That had the effect of pulling Minnesota out of the Strong Obama category and into the Lean Obama area. While on the high side of that category still, Minnesota "should" probably be a Lean if only because many of its neighbors -- Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin -- have proven to be more competitive than the Land of 10,000 Lakes. That is still the case, but Minnesota stood out as Strong state in a sea of light blue Toss Ups. To get a measure of this, the PPP survey was hardly Obama's worst in the state, but the 44% support Romney garnered is by far the former governor's best posting there this year. In total, that makes Minnesota a Lean, but only just barely.

Missouri:
The post-Akin volatility continues in the Show-Me state. It is hard to get more disparate than two polls with a 17 gap in margins in 2012. We simply haven't seen a whole lot of that in any states. But the polling has been all over the map in Missouri since the Akin situation arose. No matter how you slice it, though, Romney leads with rare exception in every poll and has a solid lead in the FHQ weighted averages that place the state firmly in the Lean Romney area. That makes the Rasmussen poll a bit closer to reality than the Wenzel survey. The most interesting aspect of this is that Missouri just is not a Toss Up in 2012 and was only really one in 2008 because the national environment was tilted so much toward the Democrats. Most, I would imagine, would have been surprised in 2000 if I had told you Missouri would not be a swing state in 2012. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

New Hampshire:
One state that has not changed in that time is New Hampshire. Tight in 2000, the Granite state is still competitive in 2012. That may technically be true, but New Hampshire has consistently been in the +5 Obama range throughout 2012 (including this latest WMUR poll). That is close enough to make it a target of both campaigns, but the consistency of the polls throughout is also enough to make you wonder how quickly we will have to see the trajectory begin to change -- close from the Romney campaign perspective -- in order to keep it that way.

New York:
It is nice to get the data from New York, but the outlook in the Empire state is not really changing just as was the case for California a day ago. New York is a safe blue state for Obama and this Q poll released today does little to alter that thinking.

Ohio:
Much has been and will be written about the importance of Ohio in the race for 270. It certainly occupies a significant position in the FHQ calculus. There are several states in between Romney and Ohio in terms of getting to that threshold and that is less troublesome from the Romney vantage point if one assumes a uniform shift in the governor's direction nationally likely pushes a healthy chunk of Toss Ups his way. But the resiliency of the polls continues to stand as a major roadblock to that type of shift and no state better typifies that than Ohio. Of course, we are still in the post-convention bounce period where some volatility is a given. Still, Obama has trailed in only two (of 12) polls in Ohio since the calendar flipped from July to August, and the president has maintained around a three point lead throughout while pushing close to the 50% post-Charlotte. Romney is not likely to win states like Michigan or Wisconsin without also winning Ohio and would need one of both of those states to to offset losing Ohio to get to 270. That remains a tall order.

Virginia:
Virginia is in a group of states -- Colorado and Ohio are the others -- that are all in the +2-3 Obama range. Those states are all fairly likely to swing together on November 6. That makes it all the more interesting that in the series of NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls that Florida and Virginia were both identical five point leads for the president. Ohio, meanwhile, was a +7 for Obama. Now sure, this is likely just statistical noise, but given the emerging patterns here at FHQ, the expectation is that Virginia is closer to Ohio than to Florida; that Florida would be the first to flip and Virginia, Colorado, Ohio (and Iowa too) would be the next level for Romney to attack.

None of the laundry list of polls in any of those Toss Up states did anything to shake the order of those states from their moorings. There is an obvious hierarchy of states between Ohio and North Carolina on the Electoral College Spectrum that the conventions have done little to change. While there was no change there, Minnesota did jump into the Lean Obama category and leaped New Mexico and just barely Connecticut on the Spectrum in the process. New York, too, flipped with Hawaii way out on the extreme Strong end of the Obama side of the ledger. On the Romney side of the partisan line, Missouri pushed past both South Dakota and Arizona in to the second column from the right; out of the most competitive middle column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	WA-12 (158)	NV-6 (257)	MO-10 (166)	MS-6 (55)
RI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	GA-16 (156)	ND-3 (49)
NY-29 (39)	NM-5 (177)	CO-9 (284/263)	MT-3 (140)	AL-9 (46)
HI-4 (43)	CT-7 (184)	VA-13 (297/254)	IN-11 (137)	KY-8 (37)
IL-20 (63)	MN-10 (194)	IA-6 (303/241)	SC-9 (126)	KS-6 (29)
MD-10 (73)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	LA-8 (117)	AK-3 (23)
CA-55 (128)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	NE-5 (109)	OK-7 (20)
MA-11 (139)	NH-4 (225)	TN-11 (191)	TX-38 (104)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	MI-16 (241)	SD-3 (180)	AR-6 (66)	WY-3 (9)
ME-4 (146)	WI-10 (251)	AZ-11 (177)	WV-5 (60)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

On the Watch List, Minnesota's change means that instead of being a Strong state on the cusp of moving into the Lean category, the opposite is true. Minnesota has consistently been on or around that line throughout, so the designation changes are more about the proximity to the line than a closing or widening of the gap between Obama and Romney there.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Connecticut	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Michigan	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Minnesota	from Lean Obama	to Strong Obama
Montana	from Lean Romney	to Strong Romney
Nevada	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
New Mexico	from Strong Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Michigan, for example, is close to being a Lean Obama state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/12/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/11/12)

The Electoral College Map (9/9/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.