Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/18/12)

Thursday's polling data brought forth a handful of surveys that were in the field following the town hall presidential debate in Hempstead. Overall, though, the evidence thus far is that we are still in a wait and see mode in terms of the impact the second debate -- if any -- had on the direction of the 2012 general election. As we have alluded to here in the past, the polls in the time before the first debate had already started to take a slight turn toward Mitt Romney; a turn that was exacerbated by that debate. There are a couple of ways of looking at that and what happened (or will happen) next. One view is that the first debate turned things off and that the vice presidential (and perhaps now the second presidential) debate slowed that trend down and triggered the leveling off that we have seen. The opposing view is that the first debate merely sped up something that was underway already: a return to the fundamentals of the race. In other words, the race was bound to return to the Holbrookian equilibrium of the race where the president -- based on the economy and presidential approval (among other factors) -- held a small advantage in the race. That has been borne out in the polls. The race has narrowed, but the president continues to hold small but consistent leads in enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.

Have some states slipped away? Yes and no. North Carolina has been consistently in Mitt Romney's column all along, and seems to be close but realistically off the table now. Florida, Colorado and Virginia, too, have moved toward Romney and in a way that tips slightly toward the governor, but are still competitive. And that movement toward Romney is true in other states as well, but not to the same extent. Those states (Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire among them) are similar to the three above, but (slightly) favor the president.

All told, there were 13 new polls from 10 states on Thursday.

New State Polls (10/18/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/16-10/18
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
50
47
3
+3
+1.78
Connecticut
10/11-10/16
+/- 4.0%
574 likely voters
51
37
--
+14
+11.97
Connecticut
10/15-10/16
+/- 3.1%
1015 likely voters
53
44
3
+9
--
Iowa
10/15-10/17
+/- 2.9%
1392 likely voters
51
43
4
+8
+3.15
Michigan
10/9-10/10
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
44
41
13
+3
+5.78
Michigan
10/17
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
52
46
2
+6
--
Minnesota
10/12-10/14
+/- 4.3%
550 likely voters
50
40
6
+10
+8.72
North Carolina
10/17
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
46
52
1
+6
+1.45
Ohio
10/12-10/15
+/- 4.0%
613 likely voters
45
42
9
+3
+3.41
Ohio
10/17
+/- 4.0%
750 likely voters
49
48
2
+1
--
Virginia
10/15-10/16
+/- 3.6%
733 likely voters
49
48
3
+1
+2.48
Washington
10/1-10/16
+/- 3.9%
782 likely voters
52
43
3
+9
+13.22
Wisconsin
10/15-10/17
+/- 3.1%
1295 likely voters
51
45
3
+6
+4.94

Polling Quick Hits:
[Today, FHQ will truly make these quick hits.]

Colorado:
Since the last PPP survey of the Centennial state in late September, Romney has gained a couple of points and Obama has lost one. Compared to the FHQ averages, this survey overstates Obama's share some, and is within range of the Romney share.

Connecticut:
There may be a single digit lead in one of these surveys, but the picture is still clear in the Nutmeg state. It is blue and is out of reach to Romney given the information to which we have access.

Iowa:
At this late stage of the race, any poll that shows a margin outside of about 4-5 points of the FHQ weighted average margin in a given state is probably an outlier. The Marist survey out of Iowa this evening seems to fit that bill at Obama +8. The president may have the advantage there, but it likely is not in the upper single digits.

Michigan:
The two polls released today hover nicely around the FHQ weighted average; one on the low side and one on the high side. The Great Lakes state seems to be out of range for Romney in the same way that North Carolina is out of reach for the president. Achievable if something very uncharacteristic occurs, but realistically off the table.

Minnesota:
Minnesota has slipped into and settled at a spot just under the Strong/Lean line on the Obama side of the partisan line. The Survey USA poll today did little to change that. In fact, the numbers matched the firm's last -- early September -- survey in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

North Carolina:
The lead seems to have stretched for Romney some in the Tarheel state, but perhaps not to the level reflected in this Rasmussen poll. Romney is up one and Obama down two since the pollster's previous survey conducted in North Carolina. The Romney +3 in the earlier poll seems about right.

Ohio:
The key in Ohio moving forward is not the size of the lead -- it's close and will continue to be -- but who is ahead. And Obama continues to lead Romney in surveys of the Buckeye state. Today's two polls seemingly set a pretty accurate range: 1-3 points with an occasional Romney lead of +1 thrown in for good measure.

Virginia:
See Ohio, but in reverse. Romney is the one with post-debate leads in the 1-3 point range with Obama contributing a +1 margin in the Old Dominion here and there.

Washington:
Another single digit lead for the president, but one that does not bring the Evergreen state into range for Romney. Washington is part of a group that includes Connecticut above as well as New Jersey and New Mexico; states clustering around the Strong/Lean Obama line.

Wisconsin:
See Iowa, but perhaps not to as great an extent. This poll is within range of the FHQ weighted average -- a little high nonetheless -- and is not like the Marist poll of Iowa; nearly five points out. This one doesn't fit with the other post-debate polling in the Badger state though.


Both the map and the Electoral College Spectrum remain unchanged today. Increasingly the race is about the president's ability to keep things close in Virginia, Colorado and Florida and the Romney campaign's ability to do likewise in the Wisconsin-Iowa group of states below.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

Shifting to the Watch List, things are only slightly different than yesterday. On the strength of the outlier from Marist, Iowa is now back on the list; within a fraction of a point of moving into the Lean Obama category.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Iowa
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Oregon
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:



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The Electoral College Map (10/17/12), part two

Tuesday night after the debate the results from the latest wave of YouGov surveys began trickling out and hit in full force today. Instead of lumping that data in with the other data from Wednesday, FHQ opted to do what it did with the YouGov data from their September wave: Deal with it separately. That is something that we have done for no other reason than because it is more efficient to get the data into the charts that way. It has nothing to do with singling out the internet-based pollster because of their methodology.

In all there were 25 new polls from 25 states; down from the 27 surveys from last month. New Hampshire and New Mexico were not included this time around most likely because the already small sample sizes from September fell victim to panel attrition in October.

New State Polls (10/17/12) -- YouGov
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Arizona
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.4%
469 likely voters
43
52
3
+9
+6.58
California
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.5%
1169 likely voters
58
39
1
+19
+18.80
Colorado
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.3%
527 likely voters
48
45
5
+3
+1.73
Connecticut
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.5%
434 likely voters
53
39
5
+14
+12.07
Florida
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.0%
1244 likely voters
48
47
2
+1
+0.71
Georgia
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.5%
776 likely voters
44
52
3
+8
+9.70
Illinois
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.9%
850 likely voters
58
38
3
+20
+19.85
Indiana
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.6%
495 likely voters
41
53
3
+12
+10.85
Iowa
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.1%
545 likely voters
50
46
3
+4
+2.84
Maryland
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.2%
498 likely voters
58
37
4
+21
+21.03
Massachusetts
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.9%
669 likely voters
55
36
5
+19
+19.97
Michigan
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.9%
895 likely voters
52
42
4
+10
+5.87
Minnesota
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.2%
683 likely voters
52
44
3
+8
+8.56
Missouri
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.9%
546 likely voters
42
52
4
+10
+7.33
Nevada
10/4-10/11
+/- 6.7%
358 likely voters
50
45
3
+5
+4.09
New Jersey
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.1%
770 likely voters
54
41
3
+13
+12.26
New York
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.2%
1142 likely voters
59
35
4
+24
+24.78
North Carolina
10/4-10/11
+/- 3.9%
810 likely voters
48
49
2
+1
+1.30
Ohio
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.8%
851 likely voters
50
46
2
+4
+3.48
Pennsylvania
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.3%
966 likely voters
51
44
4
+7
+6.64
Tennessee
10/4-10/11
+/- 5.0%
484 likely voters
43
52
4
+9
+7.73
Texas
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.5%
957 likely voters
41
55
2
+14
+14.69
Virginia
9/7-9/14
+/- 4.0%
742 likely voters
46
45
6
+1
+2.52
Washington
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.3%
747 likely voters
56
39
3
+17
+13.51
Wisconsin
10/4-10/11
+/- 4.9%
638 likely voters
51
47
2
+4
+4.90

Again, as was the case in the September write up of the original YouGov wave, FHQ will spare you a state-by-state rundown. We'll provide you with some overall impressions. All of the interviews were done in a window that fell just after the first debate in Denver, so the expectation is that we should see some narrowing in the race. And while that is true in some cases in the poll-over-poll comparisons, it is not a trend that affected each state equally or at all.

Looking at the toss up states and Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- ten states in all -- none were static as compared to last month. However, only half of those ten states saw a greater than one point shift since September. The margins in Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia all contracted in a way that was favorable to Mitt Romney. The remainder, Wisconsin, actually moved more than a point -- three, in fact -- toward the president. Regardless, that sort of shift -- in the one to four point range -- is usually not a recipe for significant change in the FHQ weighted averages.


And none of the data from the 25 states represented did anything to alter the map or the underlying electoral vote tally. There were a couple of changes to the Electoral College Spectrum, but those only occurred in states that were outside of the two candidates' toss up categories. Tennessee and Missouri switched places in the Lean Romney area and the average in Indiana after the addition of this poll bumped the Hoosier state past South Dakota, deeper into the Romney column.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
MT-3
(159)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
GA-16
(156)
KY-8
(52)
RI-4
(14)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
SD-3
(140)
AL-9
(44)
NY-29
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
IN-11
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
SC-9
(126)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
ND-3
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(109)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
WV-5
(71)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
TN-11
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List, too, was mostly unchanged. It welcomed Georgia back into the fold, but that is not all that consequential. States -- especially those on the Romney side of the partisan line -- that are hovering around the Strong/Lean line are just too far out for either candidate to reasonable sway in the remaining time before the election. So, Georgia is back on the Watch List, but there are other states below that are more worthy of a regular glance than the Peach state. Namely, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Minnesota
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Ohio
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Oregon
from Lean Obama
to Strong Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:



Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 12:00 PM 0 comments
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