Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/31/12)

On top of the 31 polls that were released on Wednesday, FHQ added 12 dated polls from earlier in October. In total there were 43 polls newly added to the polling dataset from 13 different states.

New State Polls (10/31/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Colorado
10/15-10/16
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
47
44
7
+3
+1.71
Colorado
10/28-10/29
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
45
6
+3
--
Colorado
10/30
+/- 2.9%
1246 likely voters
50
47
3
+3
--
Florida
10/23-10/28
+/- 3.0%
1073 likely voters
48
47
3
+1
+0.30
Florida
10/29
+/- 4.2%
549 likely voters
48
50
1
+2
--
Florida
10/28-10/30
+/- 3.5%
825 likely voters
47.3
46.8
3.2
+0.5
--
Florida
10/30
+/- 4.2%
549 likely voters
47
50
4
+3
--
Florida
10/30
+/- 3.0%
1146 likely voters
49
50
--
+1
--
Illinois
10/4-10/8
+/- 3.7%
700 likely voters
55
36
5
+19
+19.18
Illinois
10/30
+/- 2.95%
1198 likely voters
57
41
--
+16
--
Iowa
10/18-10/27
+/- 5.6%
320 likely voters
44
45
6
+1
+2.61
Iowa
10/30
+/- 3.0%
1174 likely voters
49
47
--
+2
--
Massachusetts
10/25
+/- 4.5%
500 likely voters
59
40
1
+19
+20.03
Michigan
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
48
42
6
+6
+5.69
Michigan
10/30-10/31
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
53
45
3
+8
--
Minnesota
10/26-10/28
+/- 4.2%
574 likely voters
50
43
3
+7
+7.81
Missouri
9/30-10/1
+/- 3.75%
675 likely voters
40
50
--
+10
+8.04
Missouri
10/30
+/- 2.9%
1217 likely voters
42
54
--
+12
--
North Carolina
10/29-10/31
+/- 3.6%
730 likely voters
49
49
1
0
+1.54
Ohio
10/1
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
50
43
4
+7
+2.97
Ohio
10/8
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
47
46
4
+1
--
Ohio
10/9-10/11
+/- 3.4%
835 likely voters
45.5
44.9
3.8
+0.6
--
Ohio
10/23-10/28
+/- 3.0%
1100 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
--
Ohio
10/29
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
48
46
3
+2
--
Ohio
10/25-10/30
+/- 2.9%
1141 likely voters
48
46
2
+2
--
Ohio
10/28-10/30
+/- 3.5%
826 likely voters
48.3
42.8
4.5
+5.5
--
Ohio
10/29-10/30
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
--
Pennsylvania
10/1
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
50
43
4
+7
+5.95
Pennsylvania
10/8
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
47
45
6
+2
--
Pennsylvania
10/23-10/28
+/- 4.2%
547 likely voters
49
45
4
+4
--
Pennsylvania
10/30
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
49
46
3
+3
--
Virginia
10/1
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
48
47
3
+1
+1.85
Virginia
10/8
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
48
48
2
0
--
Virginia
10/23-10/26
+/- 4.0%
638 likely voters
44
50
3
+6
--
Virginia
10/23-10/28
+/- 3.0%
1074 likely voters
49
47
3
+2
--
Virginia
10/28-10/30
+/- 3.5%
800 likely voters
46.3
47.1
4.4
+0.8
--
Virginia
10/30
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
49
48
3
+1
--
Virginia
10/30-10/31
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
46
4
+3
--
Wisconsin
10/1
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
51
44
2
+7
+4.62
Wisconsin
10/8
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
50
46
2
+4
--
Wisconsin
10/25-10/28
+/- 2.8%
1243 likely voters
51
43
5
+8
--
Wisconsin
10/29
+/- 3.0%
1000 likely voters
49
48
2
+1
--
Wisconsin
10/29-10/30
+/- 3.4%
825 likely voters
51
46
3
+5
--

The striking thing about the slew of polls above is how much blue there is among the most competitive states. That means different things across those states. In Pennsylvania, every poll favors Obama, but of the four polls only the pre-Denver Pulse poll indicates a margin above four points. In Virginia, that blue demonstrates the continued level of competition in the Old Dominion. The average margin there also favors the president, but it has slipped below two points. From the Romney perspective, the most troubling aspect of the race continues to be the fact that the governor has not been able to take a lead and hold it in Ohio. The FHQ weighted average margin is under three points now -- and the Buckeye state is, after all, a toss up state -- but those are still consistent Obama edges there.


The map (changes since 10/30): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/30): No change. [This was a confirming polling day, mostly among the toss up states.]

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/30): No change.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Share |

Happy Halloween, 2012



Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.
Posted by Josh Putnam at 10:30 PM 0 comments
Labels: , ,
Share |

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Electoral College Map (10/30/12)

With one week to go in the race for the White House, the pace of home-stretch polling is picking up some. There were 16 new surveys released from 11 states.

New State Polls (10/30/12)
State
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
Obama
Romney
Undecided
Poll Margin
FHQ Margin
Florida
10/24-10/27
+/- 3.4%
800 likely voters
49
47
4
+2
+0.38
Florida
10/25-10/27
+/- 4.1%
595 likely voters
47
47
5
0
--
Florida
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
828 likely voters
47.4
46.7
3.6
+0.7
--
Georgia
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.2%
574 likely voters
44
52
2
+8
+9.47
Iowa
10/29-10/30
+/- 3.8%
676 likely voters
50
45
4
+5
+2.81
Massachusetts
10/25-10/28
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
63
31
3
+32
+20.07
Michigan
10/27-10/29
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
47.7
45
6.3
+2.7
+5.61
North Carolina
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.8%
682 likely voters
45
50
3
+5
+1.59
North Dakota
10/26-10/28
+/- 4.0%
625 likely voters
40
54
3
+14
+16.04
Ohio
10/23-10/25
+/- 4.0%
600 likely voters
49
44
7
+5
+2.91
Ohio
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.1%
603 likely voters
48
45
6
+3
--
Ohio
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
825 likely voters
46.8
43.6
4.4
+3.2
--
Ohio
10/26-10/29
+/- 4.4%
500 likely voters
48
45
--
+3
--
Oregon
10/25-10/28
+/- 5.0%
405 likely voters
47
41
9
+6
+6.23
Texas
10/15-10/21
+/- 4.22%
540 likely voters
39
55
6
+16
+14.93
Virginia
10/27-10/29
+/- 3.5%
829 likely voters
45.3
47.4
4.7
+2.1
+2.04

[NOTE: In an effort to catch up FHQ will dispense with the state by state observations and provide some short, overall impressions.]

The picture did not change all that much either nationally -- through the electoral college -- or on the state level with the addition of today's polls. The margins may have been a little higher than the bulk of recent polling in North Carolina or lower in Michigan (both good for Romney), but things held steady overall. Strategically, in the two largest toss up state electoral college chips (Florida and Ohio), there multiple new polls and all of the news on that front was good for the president. Obama led or was tied in all seven of those surveys.

But again, there was little change in the grand scheme of things.


The map (changes since 10/29): No change. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 10/29):
Massachusetts: traded places with Illinois
North Dakota: jumped up a couple of spots toward the partisan line
Texas: flipped positions with West Virginia

We're really only talking about some shuffling among a handful of strong states. There was no movement among the toss up states. That said, it is noteworthy that Ohio and Iowa are now nearly in the same position. Those tier two states -- New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa -- are now nearly interchangeable in the order.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3
(6)2
WA-12
(158)
NH-4
(257)
GA-16
(167)
MS-6
(58)
HI-4
(10)
NJ-14
(172)
OH-183
(275/281)
SD-3
(151)
KY-8
(52)
NY-29
(39)
CT-7
(179)
IA-6
(281/263)
IN-11
(148)
AL-9
(44)
RI-4
(43)
NM-5
(184)
VA-13
(294/257)
SC-9
(137)
KS-6
(35)
MD-10
(53)
MN-10
(194)
CO-9
(303/244)
TN-11
(128)
AR-6
(29)
MA-11
(64)
OR-7
(201)
FL-29
(332/235)
NE-5
(117)
AK-3
(23)
IL-20
(84)
PA-20
(221)
NC-15
(206)
WV-5
(112)
OK-7
(20)
CA-55
(139)
MI-16
(237)
AZ-11
(191)
TX-38
(107)
ID-4
(13)
DE-3
(142)
WI-10
(247)
MO-10
(180)
ND-3
(69)
WY-3
(9)
ME-4
(146)
NV-6
(253)
MT-3
(170)
LA-8
(66)
UT-6
(6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.

2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics.

3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 10/29): No change. Only Florida and Georgia had new data and both maintained their status quo positions.

The Watch List1
State
Switch
Florida
from Toss Up Obama
to Toss Up Romney
Georgia
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Montana
from Strong Romney
to Lean Romney
Nevada
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
New Hampshire
from Toss Up Obama
to Lean Obama
Wisconsin
from Lean Obama
to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:
Posted by Josh Putnam at 11:00 PM 0 comments
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Share |
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)