The Electoral College Map (11/3/12)

So much for lazy weekends. There were 20 new polls from 14 states on Saturday and one dated poll from Utah added to mix. Again, most of the action was in either toss up states or in the series of Lean Obama states that have seen some margin contraction over the last few weeks as the polls first drew closer then leveled off. But there were a handful of polls in a few Strong Obama/Romney states that help to round out the overall picture of the race.

[And since we mentioned Utah, I'll go ahead and comment to put your mind at ease about the Beehive state. Romney won't lose that one.]

New State Polls (11/3/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
California	Field	10/17-10/30	+/- 2.6%	1566 likely voters	54	39	5	+15	+17.60
Florida	Mason-Dixon	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	45	51	4	+6	+0.24
Florida	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/31-11/1	+/- 2.7%	1545 likely voters	49	47	2	+2	--
Georgia	Insider Advantage	11/1	+/- 4.7%	426 likely voters	42.0	54.1	3.1	+12.1	+9.38
Iowa	Mellman Group	10/30-11/1	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	46	44	10	+2	+2.73
Iowa	Selzer/Des Moines Register	10/30-11/2	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	47	42	2	+5	--
Iowa	Grove Insight	11/1-11/2	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	47	44	8	+3	--
Michigan	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/3	+/- 3.7%	700 likely voters	52	46	1	+6	+5.73
Minnesota	NMB Research	10/29-10/31	+/- 4.38%	500 likely voters	45	46	--	+1	+7.34
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/3	+/- 2.9%	1164 likely voters	53	45	2	+8	--
New Hampshire	Gravis Marketing	11/1	+/- 4.3%	497 likely voters	50	49	1	+1	+3.10
New Hampshire	University of New Hampshire/WMUR	10/31-11/2	+/- 4.4%	502 likely voters	48	48	3	0	--
Ohio	Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC	10/31-11/1	+/- 3.1%	971 likely voters	51	45	3	+6	+2.92
Ohio	Grove Insight	11/1-11/2	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	49	45	4	+4	--
Oregon	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- 3.2%	921 registered voters	52	46	3	+6	+6.19
Pennsylvania	Public Policy Polling	11/2-11/3	+/- 3.5%	790 likely voters	52	46	1	+6	+5.95
South Dakota	Nielson Brothers Polling	10/28-10/31	+/- 3.53%	795 likely voters	42	50	8	+8	+9.96
Utah	BYU/Key Research	10/9-10/13	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	20	71	9	+51	+45.33
Utah	Dan Jones	10/26-11/1	+/- 3.4%	870 registered voters	26	69	--	+43	--
Washington	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/3	+/- 3.2%	932 likely voters	53	46	1	+7	+13.33
Wisconsin	Grove Insight	11/1-11/2	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	48	42	8	+6	+4.60

There was little that changed the overall outlook on the electoral college here at FHQ given the day's polling. Romney was quite strong in the states he was already just fine in and Obama continued to get some good results in the toss up and lean (Obama) states. Public Policy Polling was the most prolific firm on the day (with five total surveys) and the results largely followed the FHQ rank order of states. Michigan, Oregon and Pennsylvania were all bunched together at Obama +6 -- just as they are in the FHQ weighted averages -- and Minnesota was, as here at FHQ, on the Obama side of that group of states. The lone exception to that rule was Washington. It settled in in between Minnesota and that aforementioned group; much closer than our averages have it. Washington state has now slipped into the furthest column to the left on the Electoral College Spectrum below, but PPP has had it closer for the last couple of polls it has conducted in the Evergreen state.

Florida and Ohio should probably also be mentioned. There were polar opposites coming out of the Sunshine state from Mason-Dixon and Marist. The former was more favorable to Romney than the latter. Marist also had the race for Ohio at Obama +6 which is outside where most recent polling has had it. If the Florida poll from the Marist/Wall Street Journal/NBC was similarly Obama-favorable, then that may say something about which one of the two Florida polls was closer to reality. In truth, the answer in the last week has been somewhere in the middle. The average here at FHQ has the balance tipped the slightest of margins -- just 0.24% at this point -- toward the president, but the polling in October has probably inched a little closer to Romney.

The map (changes since 11/2): No change. Obama: 332, Romney 206.

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/2): No change.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	ME-4 (158)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	SD-3 (151)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	SC-9 (148)	AL-9 (44)
RI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	IN-11 (139)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	TN-11 (128)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	WV-5 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (107)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	ND-3 (69)	WY-3 (9)
WA-12 (154)	NV-6 (253)	MT-3 (170)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/2): No change among the toss up states.
South Dakota enters the list and is within a fraction of a point of shifting into the Lean Romney category.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
South Dakota	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)

The Electoral College Map (11/1/12)

Live by the 3, Die by the 3 (...and other thoughts on what November 6, 2012 is testing)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

The Electoral College Map (11/2/12)

24 new polls from 17 states closed out the final work week before election day. Additionally, there were two other surveys from earlier in October factored in as well from a couple of non-competitive states -- Maine and Nebraska.

New State Polls (11/2/12)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Obama	Romney	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Colorado	Survey USA/Denver Post	10/28-10/31	+/- 3.8%	695 likely voters	47	45	--	+2	+1.65
Colorado	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- -.-%	825 likely voters	50	46	4	+4	--
Connecticut	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/2	+/- 2.8%	1220 likely voters	55	42	3	+13	+11.64
Georgia	20/20 Insight	10/29-10/31	+/- 2.7%	1316 likely voters	46	52	1	+6	+9.04
Hawaii	Civil Beat/Merriman River Group	10/24-10/26	+/- 2.8%	1218 likely voters	61	34	5	+27	+29.35
Indiana	Howey-Depauw	10/28-10/30	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	41	50	--	+9	+12.01
Indiana	McLaughlin	10/31-11/1	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	41	54	5	+13	--
Iowa	Gravis Marketing	11/1	+/- 4.0%	594 likely voters	49	45	6	+4	+2.67
Maine	NMB Research	10/7-10/8	+/- 4.0%	500 likely voters	48	44	--	+4	+13.21
Maine	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/2	+/- 2.4%	1633 likely voters	55	42	2	+13	--
Massachusetts	Kimball Consulting	10/31-11/1	+/- 3.48%	761 likely voters	54.0	41.4	4.6	+12.6	+19.56
Massachusetts	Public Policy Polling	11/1-11/2	+/- 3.0%	1089 likely voters	57	42	2	+15	--
Michigan	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- -.-%	500 likely voters	52	46	2	+6	+5.72
Michigan	Grove Insight	10/31-11/1	+/- 4.4%	500 registered voters	48	41	9	+7	--
Michigan	Rasmussen	11/1	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	52	47	1	+5	--
Minnesota	Public Policy Polling	10/31-11/1	+/- -.-%	772 likely voters	53	44	3	+9	+7.90
Montana	Mellman Group	10/28-10/31	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	41	49	--	+8	+9.11
Nebraska	Wiese/Omaha World-Herald	10/23-10/25	+/- 3.8%	679 likely voters	38	52	--	+14	+13.76
Nebraska	We Ask America	11/1	+/- 2.95%	1178 likely voters	41	54	3	+13	--
Nevada	Mellman Group	10/29-10/31	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	50	44	4	+6	+4.06
New Hampshire	New England College	10/29-10/31	+/- 3.7%	1017 likely voters	50	44	4	+6	+3.30
Ohio	We Ask America	10/30-11/1	+/- 2.6%	1649 likely voters	50	46	--	+4	+2.86
Ohio	CNN	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.5%	796 likely voters	50	47	3	+3	--
Ohio	Rasmussen	11/1	+/- 4.0%	750 likely voters	49	49	1	0	--
Virginia	We Ask America	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.0%	1069 likely voters	49	48	--	+1	+1.69
Wisconsin	We Ask America	10/30-11/1	+/- 3.0%	1210 likely voters	52	45	--	+7	+4.57

This was another seemingly good polling day for the Obama campaign on the state level. Among the toss up states, the president held small leads in Colorado and Virginia (tier one states) and more comfortable advantages  in polls in states like New Hampshire, Ohio and Iowa; those Tier two states. Also, there was a bit more distance between the president and Mitt Romney in the Tier three states, Nevada and Wisconsin. Strategically, Romney has to do well in at least the Tier one and Tier two states. And by do well, I mean nearly sweep them. The former Massachusetts governor could -- if the order of states below in the Electoral College Spectrum holds -- cede New Hampshire or Iowa, or Colorado and still get to 270 with North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio. But Romney would have to have two of those three smaller states to get there. If the rank order is correct, New Hampshire would be that state.

From the Obama perspective, it is still a matter of holding Nevada and Wisconsin (along with the other Lean Obama states where the margins have contracted) and tacking on Ohio or Virginia and New Hampshire for example to just push north of 270. But there are a number of other combinations of paths to 270 for the president as well if polling like that above continues to come in.

The map (changes since 11/1):

Changes (November 2)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up Obama	Lean Obama

No change in the overall tally. Obama: 332, Romney: 206.
Nevada barely shifts back into the Lean Obama category (> 4%).

The Electoral College Spectrum (changes since 11/1): No change in the order among the toss up states.
Nevada holds its position but slides into the Lean category.
Maine and Washington trade places.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
VT-3 (6)2	ME-4 (158)	NH-4 (257)	GA-16 (167)	MS-6 (58)
HI-4 (10)	NJ-14 (172)	OH-183 (275/281)	SD-3 (151)	KY-8 (52)
NY-29 (39)	CT-7 (179)	IA-6 (281/263)	SC-9 (148)	AL-9 (44)
RI-4 (43)	NM-5 (184)	VA-13 (294/257)	IN-11 (139)	KS-6 (35)
MD-10 (53)	MN-10 (194)	CO-9 (303/244)	TN-11 (128)	AR-6 (29)
MA-11 (64)	OR-7 (201)	FL-29 (332/235)	NE-5 (117)	AK-3 (23)
IL-20 (84)	PA-20 (221)	NC-15 (206)	WV-5 (112)	OK-7 (20)
CA-55 (139)	MI-16 (237)	AZ-11 (191)	TX-38 (107)	ID-4 (13)
DE-3 (142)	WI-10 (247)	MO-10 (180)	ND-3 (69)	WY-3 (9)
WA-12 (154)	NV-6 (253)	MT-3 (170)	LA-8 (66)	UT-6 (6)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Romney won all the states up to and including Ohio (all Obama's toss up states plus Ohio), he would have 281 electoral votes. Romney's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Obama's number is on the left and Romney's is on the right in italics. 3 Ohio is the state where Obama crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line.

The Watch List (changes since 11/1): Nevada, given the shift above, is now within a fraction of a point of moving back into the Toss Up Obama category. Put simply, the Silver state is going to hug that line the rest of the way without a significant change in the polling data there.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Florida	from Toss Up Obama	to Toss Up Romney
Georgia	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Montana	from Strong Romney	to Lean Romney
Nevada	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
New Hampshire	from Toss Up Obama	to Lean Obama
Wisconsin	from Lean Obama	to Toss Up Obama
1 The Watch list shows those states in the FHQ Weighted Average within a fraction of a point of changing categories. The List is not a trend analysis. It indicates which states are straddling the line between categories and which states are most likely to shift given the introduction of new polling data. Montana, for example, is close to being a Lean Romney state, but the trajectory of the polling there has been moving the state away from that lean distinction.

Please see:

Frequently Asked Questions about FHQ graduated weighted average methodology.
&
An Update on how to read it in 2012.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (11/1/12)

Live by the 3, Die by the 3 (...and other thoughts on what November 6, 2012 is testing)

The Electoral College Map (10/31/12)

Are you following FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook? Click on the links to join in.