Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Much Ado About Nothing RE: 2016 Rules at RNC Summer Meeting in Boston?

That all depends.

If the question being posed entering the three day confab in Boston is "Will the RNC put in place rules for 2016 that reflect the initiatives called for in the Growth and Opportunity Project Report?", then the likely output -- as in January in Charlotte or April in LA -- will underwhelm. However, just because the GOP Report is not going to be imminently implemented does not mean the Republican meeting in the Bay state will be a wash.

What should we be on the look out for and what should we expect out of Boston 2016 rules-wise over the next few days?

One big question that FHQ has asked RNC members recently is whether they were of the opinion that Virginia committeeman, Morton C. Blackwell, would once again propose the same laundry list of changes to the entire body of the RNC delegate selection rules as at the LA meeting? The answer I have gotten has been a number of I don't knows. But the best indication of Blackwell's intentions came a little over a week ago when he posted on RedState a letter/rules proposal that he was sending to RNC Chairman Reince Priebus.1

The laundry list has been pared to down to probably the most minimal (yet fairly significant) rules change possible. And close FHQ readers should be familiar by now with the "may/shall" issue in Rule16(c)(2). This is something FHQ has been pointing out since we first got a hold of the RNC rules back in January, and is something that some higher ups I spoke with at the Charlotte meeting around the same time were aware of and assured me would be changed.

As a quick refresher, Rule 16(c)(2) lays out the proportionality requirement for states that hold primaries or caucuses prior to April 1 in a presidential election year. For 2012, the rule read that states with contests before that point "shall" allocate delegates to the convention in a proportional manner. It was a mandate (...but one that provided great latitude for states to achieve proportionality). But at the RNC convention in Tampa last year that shall -- as Blackwell mentions in his letter -- became a "may", making the mandate more of a toothless suggestion. It also rendered (actually, it still renders in the present tense) the penalty for violating the suggestion in Rule 17 meaningless.

In lieu of the sweeping return to the the bulk of the pre-convention rules that he and others fought for in LA, Blackwell is taking a more pragmatic approach in Boston by addressing the proportionality issue alone.

This seems like a rare bit of common ground between the Blackwell camp and some in the establishment of the RNC over delegate selection rules. But will we actually see that change made this week?

Maybe, maybe not.

And here's why: The "may/shall" switch may be quietly made and the Rules Committee and RNC move on to other issues. That could happen, but the party could also wait to make that change. The other thing that FHQ has heard is being considered and may come out of this meeting -- or more specifically the Rules Committee deliberations and then the RNC -- is a study committee to examine the whole set of rules that can be altered between conventions according to Rule 12. In other words, Rules 1-11 and Rules 13-25; everything but the convention-specific rules. The "may/shall" issue may be thrown into that group's work as one of several things to address (...later) about the nomination process.

The "may/shall" thing is actually quite significant as it serves as one of multiple rules-based barriers to states moving to earlier dates on the primary calendar and/or threatening the carve-out states' positions. It, then, is a big change if it occurs. And the study committee idea is not without merit either. It just isn't a significant a change. It does potentially provide a medium through which those not happy with the rules can air grievances about the rules, a byproduct of which may be more streamlined Rules Committee meetings at future seasonal RNC meetings. The context of my question to RNC members about the list of Blackwell amendments from LA coming up again, was/is that that had the potential to hijack the Rules Committee meeting at future meetings, making it harder to get any work -- Blackwell's, the party's or otherwise -- done.

But that is what everyone with an eye toward the rules governing the 2016 nomination process should be on the look out for this week out of Boston.

--
Well, you might also see some stern warnings from some over North Carolina's recent primary move. It will certainly be a topic of discussion, but there will not be any solution to the problem now.

--
1 This is part of the protocol of Rule 12. That any proposed change to the RNC rules must be submitted and circulated in advance (10 days) of any meeting where said amendment will be considered.




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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Update: 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar (8/13/13)

The changed date of the North Carolina primary has caused a bit of a shake up to the 2016 presidential primary calendar. And the alteration -- culminating with the bill being signed into law yesterday -- seems to have been inadvertently yet maximally timed to coincide with national party meetings that will address the 2016 delegate selection rules later this week (Republicans) or later this month (Democrats). This will give the parties something to think about even if the change is only somewhat minimal, affecting the best case scenario calendar the parties envision. Long term, the move in the Tarheel state could inspire subsequent copycat moves that could further affect that best case scenario.

[Find the calendar's permanent home here. There is a link to the 2016 calendar in the upper left corner of the page as well.]

Changes:
  • North Carolina no longer coincides with the Indiana primary on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May. Instead, the North Carolina presidential primary is now conditionally anchored to the South Carolina primary. If -- and this if is a given -- the South Carolina primary falls on a date prior to March 15, the North Carolina primary will be scheduled for the Tuesday following that. In other words, according to the new North Carolina law, the Tarheel state presidential primary will be in February at the latest. When in February is the question now. 
  • The North Carolina action is enough for FHQ to now add the carve-out states to the calendar in tentative albeit best case scenario positions. By best case scenario, FHQ means the latest these states would be on the calendar given what we know about where other states are currently positioned and the spacing the carve-out states have preferred between their contests and others in past cycles. 
  • The map has also added a new shading element to account for the options available to some states that may be at the beginning of the calendar (see footnotes on Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina and Utah below) and where that is likely to force the carve-out states. 
NOTES:
Why are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (and North Carolina as well) where they are on the calendar below? The FHQ 2016 presidential primary calendar now reflects the best case scenario calendar given where state law currently positions states and past precedent for how the carve-out states have reacted to provocative maneuvers in potentially rogue states. Importantly, this current best case scenario assumes the following: 
[a] Both Colorado parties opt for the March 1 caucuses date instead of the February 2 date. Both are allowed by state law. 
[b] Minnesota parties agree to a compliant caucus date before March 1, 2015, thus avoiding an automatic scheduling of the caucuses for the first Tuesday in February 2016. 
[c] The Missouri General Assembly actually changes the first Tuesday in February date of the presidential primary in the Show Me state, or barring that [again], the state parties opt into compliant caucuses as Missouri Republicans did in 2012. 
[d] The Utah legislature either decides not to fund the first Tuesday in February presidential primary or shifts back that date in the statute. 
[e] South Carolina parties maintain their desire for a seven day buffer between their primaries and the contest(s) in any other southern state. 
That means Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri and Utah are not threats. They are out of the way as far as the carve-out states are concerned. However, considering the new law regarding the North Carolina presidential primary, North Carolina would then violate the terms of the fifth (South Carolina) assumption above. With South Carolina typically choosing a Saturday primary date, a North Carolina primary on the Tuesday just three days later would not pass muster with the parties in its neighbor to the south.

As has been mentioned in this space previously, the South Carolina parties would have some tools to utilize; especially on the Republican side. According to the current RNC rules, all four carve-out states have the month prior to the next earliest contest in which to schedule their own delegate selection events. But the North Carolina law anchors the North Carolina primary to the scheduling of the South Carolina primary. To some extent that does tie the hands of the state party decision makers in the Palmetto state. Those same primary date decision makers -- again, on the Republican side but with possible implications for South Carolina Democrats -- could also hide behind the new protections nestled in the Republican delegate selection rules: the super penalty. That leads to the final assumption:
[f] South Carolina would schedule its primary for a date that would automatically trigger the super penalty on North Carolina if the law in the Tarheel state remains unchanged or the state parties there do not opt into a caucus/convention system as Missouri Republicans did in 2012. 
To accomplish that, the South Carolina parties could schedule their primaries for as late as Saturday, February 13, 2016. That would position the North Carolina primary on Tuesday, February 16, a date open to the super penalty under Republican rules. Please note that Tuesday, February 23 is not a date affected by the super penalty. That is the last penalty-free point of the calendar currently and why the Arizona and Michigan primaries are very unlikely to move from their state law-mandated positions. South Carolina could opt for Saturday, February 20, but there would be no penalty on North Carolina for a primary three days later. Such a move does not help decision makers in South Carolina. 

If South Carolina falls on February 13, then:
[a] The Nevada caucuses would or could be a week earlier on Saturday, February 6. 
[b] New Hampshire would then fall in line on the next earliest Tuesday that would give the state/secretary of state the seven days necessary to comply with state law ("seven days before any other similar contest"). The primary in the Granite state could not be scheduled for Tuesday, February 2 as that is only four days before the Nevada caucuses. These states had a similar dispute in 2011. The next earliest and compliant date for New Hampshire, then, is Tuesday, January 26. 
[c] And all of that means the Iowa caucuses would have enough calendar space to precede New Hampshire by its customary eight days, unlike in both 2008 and 2012. That places Iowa on Monday, January 18. 
In all, then, the North Carolina action only pushed the starting point in the best case scenario calendar up by a week since the last FHQ calendar update in June. 

Now, if any or all of the states (Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri and/or Utah) fail to act as assumed above, then the best case scenario becomes the worst case scenario outlined in June:
  • Saturday, January 2: Iowa caucuses
  • Tuesday, January 5: New Hampshire primary
  • Saturday, January 16: Nevada caucuses
  • Saturday, January 23: South Carolina primary
  • Tuesday, January 26: North Carolina primary
  • Tuesday, February 2: Colorado caucuses, Minnesota caucuses, Missouri primary, Utah primary
And that scenario puts the national parties right back to the square one they have attempted to avoid since 2008.

--



Reading the Map:
As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Arizona, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in February than California is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2016. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned with wide, diagonal stripes. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the month to which the primary could be moved. For example, a bill currently being considered in Massachusetts would move the presidential primary from its current position in March to a new spot on the calendar in June. 
  3. Other states -- the carve-out states and states with state laws providing guidance for setting a primary or caucuses date but no specific date or multiple specified dates -- are also two-toned with narrow, horizontal stripes. In this case, one color (gray) represents the uncertainty of the primary or caucuses date now while the other color (or colors) highlight the options available to states or the most likely date for a contest in that state given the information we currently have. So, in Iowa, for instance, we know that the state parties in the Hawkeye state will want to protect the first in the nation status they have enjoyed in the past. To maintain that position alone, Iowa could now conduct its precinct caucuses as late as January 18, 2016. In a state like Utah, the primary itself is dependent on the state legislature allocating funds for that purpose. Should legislators in the Beehive state follow through on that action for 2016, the primary would be in early February. That explains the color in both instances. 
  4. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event (see Nebraska). This holds true for states -- typically caucus states -- with a history of different dates across parties but which also have not yet chosen a contest date.
--
Reading the calendar:
  1. Note that if you click on the state name in the calendar below, the link will take you to the relevant section of the state's law or party's bylaws covering the date of the primary or caucus.
  2. Links to discussions of 2013 state-level legislation addressing the dates of future presidential primaries have also been added (see 2013 Legislation in the calendar).
  3. Markers have also been added indicating whether legislation has become law or has died at some point in the legislative process. 

2016 Presidential Primary Calendar

January
Monday, January 18:
Iowa caucuses1 (***tentative given current information***)

Tuesday, January 26: 
New Hampshire (***tentative given current information***)

February
Tuesday, February 2:
Missouri (2013 Legislation: March primary: House/Senate, April primary -- all Died in Committee)
Utah4 (2013 Legislation: Primary funding -- Signed into Law)

Saturday, February 6:
Nevada caucuses (***tentative given current information***)

 Saturday, February 13:
South Carolina (***tentative given current information***)

 Tuesday, February 16: 
North Carolina (***tentative given current information***)

 Tuesday, February 23:
March
Tuesday, March 1:
Florida5 (2013 Legislation: March primary -- Died in Committee; Primary on first unpenalized date -- Signed into Law)
Massachusetts (2013 legislation: June primary)
Texas (2013 Legislation: Saturday primary, February primary -- all Died in Committee)

Tuesday, March 8:

Tuesday, March 15:

Saturday, March 19:

April
Tuesday, April 5:
Washington, DC (2013 Legislation: June primary)

Tuesday, April 26:

May
Tuesday, May 3:

Tuesday, May 10:

Tuesday, May 17:

Tuesday, May 24:

June
Tuesday, June 7:
Montana (2013 Legislation: May primary -- Died in Committee)

Primary states with no specified date:
Maine (2013 Legislation: establish primary -- Died in Committee)
Nevada8 (2013 Legislation: January primary -- Died in Committee)
New Hampshire
South Carolina

Without dwelling on something that is WELL before its time, FHQ should note that those February states are only problematic in 2016 if the two parties' delegates selection rules mirror the rules from the 2012 cycle. They may or may not. The real problem children, if you will, are the primary states without specified dates for 2016. As of June 2013 they remain the free agents for the 2016 primary calendar and the ones that may bear the most intense watching between now and mid-2015. That said, first things first: The first step is a set of rules from the DNC and RNC. We have a ways to go before the parties settle on/finalize something on that front (summer 2014). The Republican Party is further along in its process than are the Democrats.

--
1 This date does conflict with the Martin Luther King Day holiday in 2016. As John Deeth points out in the comments section that is an issue that was a source of some discontent among Iowa Democrats when the caucuses and holiday overlapped in 2004. If that is an issue again in 2016, it may affect the date of the caucuses above. Moving it up further would perhaps push the envelope a bit too much, but the state parties may opt to hold the caucuses on a Tuesday -- a week before New Hampshire on January 19 -- as they did in 2012. 
2 The state parties have the option of choosing either the first Tuesday in March date called for in the statute or moving up to the first Tuesday in February.
3 The state parties must agree on a date on which to hold caucuses by March 1 in the year prior to a presidential election. If no agreement is reached, the caucuses are set for the first Tuesday in February.
4 The Western States Presidential Primary in Utah is scheduled for the first Tuesday in February, but the contest will only be held on that date if the state legislature decides to allocate funds for the primary.
5 Democratic-sponsored legislation would establish a specific date for the Florida presidential primary; the second Tuesday in March. 
6 See definition of "Spring primary" for clause dealing with the timing of the presidential primary.
7 Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992. Funds have not been appropriated by the legislature for the primary since that time. That said, there are laws in place providing for a presidential preference primary. Assuming funding, the Kansas secretary of state has the option of choosing a date -- on or before November 1 in the year preceding the presidential election -- that either coincides with at least 5 other states' delegate selection events or is on the first Tuesday in April or before.
8 A Republican-sponsored bill during the 2013 session of the Nevada legislature would create a consolidated primary (presidential primary together with state primaries) and move the contest from June to January.
9 The North Carolina primary is now scheduled for the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary if the South Carolina contest is prior to March 15. Given the protected status South Carolina enjoys with the national parties, a primary prior to March 15 is a certainty for both parties in the Palmetto state. The link to the North Carolina statute does not yet reflect the change made to the presidential primary law. Language laying out the parameters for the primary can be found in the bill (HB 589) recently signed into law.


Recent Posts:


The Potential North Carolina Presidential Primary Move from the Perspective of South Carolina

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Monday, August 12, 2013

North Carolina Just Made the 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar More Interesting

Governor Pat McCrory (R-NC) today signed into law a fairly sweeping elections bill (HB 589) that will alter the way in which voters are registered and how elections are conducted in the Tarheel state.

The now-law also changes the timing of future presidential primaries in North Carolina. Instead of falling on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May, the North Carolina presidential primary will now occur on "the Tuesday after the first South Carolina presidential preference primary" if the primary in the Palmetto state is conducted prior to March 15 of any presidential election year.1 Given the protected status South Carolina enjoys as the "first in the South" primary in both national parties, a primary before March 15, 2016 is almost a given.

That means that North Carolina now joins Missouri on the wrong side of what will likely be the national party rules for 2016 delegate selection. In turn, that means that the 2016 presidential primary calendar takes on a different shape altogether.

According to the current RNC rules, South Carolina (and Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada) have a month prior to the next earliest contest to schedule their four delegate selection events. Missouri [Republicans] proved in 2012 that they can scale things back, opting out of a noncompliant, state-funded primary for a party-run caucus on a date compliant with national party rules.2 That may again prove to be the course of action both Missouri parties take in 2016 if the legislature in the Show Me state cannot change the date of the presidential primary there. North Carolina may or may not affect the thinking in Missouri. Regardless, it now brings to two the number of states with laws currently calling for what will be noncompliant presidential primary dates in 2016.3 Two states does not a trend make necessarily, but there is at least one state (North Carolina) now that has very few options for avoiding the RNC super penalty, the penalty now in place for states that violate the national party rules on the timing of primaries or caucuses.

Without further change to this portion of the law, North Carolina Republicans could get hammered with penalties.

...or could end up forced to go the caucus route to comply.

--
All of this, however, only examines one side of the equation. It fails to incorporate what the national parties or the four so-called carve-out states will do in response. What affects South Carolina affects Nevada affects New Hampshire affects Iowa and all of it affects what the national parties may do with their rules of the course of the next year when those rules will be solidified.

One option for the carve-outs is to do what they have always done: push ever forward on the calendar. But the North Carolina law makes that more difficult. It takes away the week long buffer that South Carolina parties typically require in between its primary/primaries and a primary in another southern state (assuming South Carolina maintains its customary Saturday primary date). That means that unless the North Carolina law changes, South Carolina can opt into a date that triggers the super penalty on North Carolina and starts a strong-arming process like the one between New Hampshire and Nevada in 2011. That may end up pushing North Carolina in the direction of a caucus/convention system for allocating delegates as was the case with Missouri Republican in 2012.

But the bottom line here is that North Carolina is now on South Carolina's heels. And the best case scenario for the national parties has taken a bit of a hit. As it was with no change in Missouri -- triggering later and compliant caucuses there -- and Colorado, Minnesota and Utah opting into less provocative dates, Arizona and Michigan were the next earliest states on February 23. That would leave enough time between either February 16 or 20 and the last week in January. Now, with North Carolina threatening the balance, that best case scenario could look a lot like the worst case scenario outlined here: right back to the beginning of January where things have started the last two cycles.

--
1 The presidential primary will now not occur concurrently with the primaries for state and local offices. Thus, the state would incur a cost by hold a new and separate presidential primary election; something several states (Arkansas, California and New Jersey) legislated to avoid in 2012 as compared to separate presidential primaries in each in 2008.

2 Missouri Democrats applied for and received a waiver from the DNC to hold an early February primary in 2012. But the Democratic nomination race was not competitive and the stakes were pretty low. That may not be the case in 2016.

3 One could also add Minnesota, Colorado and Utah to this count, but those states have options. Minnesota state parties have to agree to a uniform caucus date by March 1 of the year preceding a presidential election or the caucus date is set for the first Tuesday in February the following year according to state law. In Utah, the primary requires state funding; an action the state legislature there failed to take in 2012. Over in Colorado, the law allows the parties to opt into a caucus on either the first Tuesday of February or March. In other words, like Missouri, these states have options/future decisions to make.


Recent Posts:
One More on the North Carolina Presidential Primary

The Potential North Carolina Presidential Primary Move from the Perspective of South Carolina

Omnibus Elections Bill Could Move North Carolina Presidential Primary to February

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Thursday, July 25, 2013

One More on the North Carolina Presidential Primary

While the North Carolina Senate is in recess before taking up the third reading of HB 589, allow FHQ to add one additional footnote to the potential presidential primary move called for in the bill and its implications.

The funny thing -- or perhaps it isn't funny depending on your perspective -- is that the presidential primary provision, if passed, is ultimately going to be all for naught. FHQ explained yesterday that anchoring the North Carolina primary so close to South Carolina's is a recipe for disaster. In a perfect world for North Carolina, the RNC rules (with loophole) would stay as is, South Carolina would allow the primary in the Tarheel state to follow just three days after the primary in the Palmetto state and no other states would threaten the delicate balance the national parties and carve-out states have in the month or so before Super Tuesday on March 1. But the world isn't perfect. The RNC rules are apt to change in some way. South Carolina is also likely to frown upon a North Carolina primary so close to its own. Oh, and who knows what other states will do in terms of the scheduling of primaries between now and, say, October 2015.

Translation: North Carolina can pass the law, but is very likely to get drawn into a non-compliant point on the calendar and get hammered by the RNC (and DNC).

Where does that leave the Tarheel state? That's the funny part.

At that point -- again, say, late 2015 -- the legislature would have to eye a rather quick fix to the legislation in early 2016 (giving elections administrators across the state more than enough headaches as far as their election preparation is concerned). Barring that -- and that kind of fix is no sure thing -- North Carolina would be stuck. The law would call for a primary immediately after South Carolina's. That would put both parties in the state in a bind and with limited options.

They could go the waiver route (as Missouri and Minnesota Democrats did in 2012), but only Democrats in the minority in the state would likely probably stand a chance at gaining a permission from the DNC to hold a February primary. State Republicans, having spearheaded the primary move in the first place, would likely find great difficulty in convincing the RNC that a waiver is warranted.1

The caucus route is another option. That is what Missouri Republicans did in 2012 when the primary in the Show Me state got mired in legislative gridlock. That is also what happened with North Carolina Democrats in 2004 when a court battle over newly drawn congressional and state legislative lines forced the hands of Democrats in the midst of a competitive presidential nomination race. That may or may not be the preferred option for either party in the state.

Finally, North Carolina -- if the state legislature can't pass a measure to move the primary to a compliant but still early date in 2016 -- may go the Utah route. Utah legislators in 2011 purposely did not fund what would have been a non-compliant February presidential primary in their annual appropriations bill and added the presidential race to the state's June primary for state and local offices. If FHQ had to guess, I'd say this is the most likely option.

So yeah, the North Carolina General Assembly can go to the trouble of changing the primary law, but the end result -- like the scheduling of the 2012 Florida primary -- will likely be that the primary ends up right back where it started: the first Tuesday after the first Monday in May.

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1 The great unknown is whether the RNC would grant a waiver to North Carolina Republicans if the DNC had already done so with Democrats in the state. There would be pressure on the RNC not to let Democrats gain an advantage in the state (whether one was to be had or not -- Perception often trumps reality in these situations.). There is, after all, a provision in the RNC rules (Rule 16(f)3) that allows for waivers to be granted if "granting such waiver is in the best interests of the Republican Party". That does provide the national party with some latitude.

Recent Posts:
The Potential North Carolina Presidential Primary Move from the Perspective of South Carolina

Omnibus Elections Bill Could Move North Carolina Presidential Primary to February

New Texas Law Further Clarifies State-Level Guidance Over Presidential Delegate Selection

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Wednesday, July 24, 2013

The Potential North Carolina Presidential Primary Move from the Perspective of South Carolina

Here's the thing about North Carolina possibly moving its presidential primary from May to February. These sorts of actions never happen in a vacuum. That is certainly the case when one or more of the carve-out states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- are affected. It can even be true when the perception is that a threat is being exerted on any of the four.

Look, in the sequential game of presidential primary calendar formation, states -- state parties or state governments -- can virtually do whatever they want. They may face a (super) sanction from the national parties (see Florida and Michigan in 2008; Florida et al in 2012). They may face a boycott from some or all of the candidates (see Florida and Michigan on the Democratic side in 2008; Delaware in 1996). They may trigger a January (or earlier) beginning to primary season. States, then, can do many things, but there are very often (steep -- steeper over time) repercussions for those actions.

Let's assume for a moment that this bill passes the North Carolina General Assembly as is and is signed into law by Governor McCrory. Well, as FHQ mentioned last night, depending on the timing of the South Carolina primary, North Carolina may actually be able to hold a February primary and avoid a penalty (from the Republican National Committee1). That may help avoid the national party implications, but does not necessarily solve the candidate or other state issues that may arise in these types of moves/situations.

No, in fact, with Florida breathing down its neck over the last two cycles, South Carolina has all but (unofficially) institutionalized a week long buffer between its contest and the contests of the other states in the South. The Florida primaries in both 2008 and 2012 fell on the last Tuesday in January, and each time -- faced with the possibility of opting into a primary date the Saturday before -- South Carolina Republicans decided to jump to a point on the calendar 10 days ahead of Florida. In the Palmetto state, First in the South means first in the South; just like in First in the Nation means first in the nation in New Hampshire. But it isn't just that the moniker has some meaning. No, instead, first means first but with some time for the results of the contest to resonate; to impact the proceedings of any given presidential nomination race.

In fact, there was a failed effort to protect (and codify) this "at least seven days before" buffer in the South Carolina legislature just last year. No, it didn't pass, but in combination with the actions out of South Carolina over the last two cycles, the signs are telling. Ultimately, South Carolina would force North Carolina's hand if the Tarheel state went through with a plan to anchor its primary to South Carolina's. Newly emboldened by the (at least RNC) rules, South Carolina would inch up a week. The current RNC rules give the carve-out states a month before the next earliest contest to schedule their delegate selection events. That does not necessarily mean February unless the non-exempt states abide by the March 1 threshold. And Arizona and Michigan are already camped out in late February; forcing Iowa into late January more than likely.

But if South Carolina moves up a week -- from February 20 to February 13, 2016 -- then North Carolina Republicans are suddenly open to the Republican super penalty. Republicans in the state will have more delegates in 2016 due to Romney's win in the state, the Republican increases in the congressional delegation and unified control of North Carolina state government. That, in turn, will mean that the super penalty -- the reduction to 12 total delegates -- would hurt more; increasing from 78% of the original total of delegates to likely an over 80% hit.

Again, the game is sequential. North Carolina can move.

...but there will be repercussions. Starting with South Carolina and ending with significant penalties.

--
1 Again, this refers to the current RNC rules. Those are apt to change. Indeed, the RNC was unaware that this loophole existed as recently as late May. The intent of the rules coming out of the convention was to create a 50% penalty for states with contests prior to the first Tuesday in March and a super penalty -- violating states are reduced to 12 delegates -- for states with contests before the last Tuesday in February. That may or may not be what the final, actionable rules looks like when the RNC reviews its rules later this year and into next. [The Democratic Party has yet to begin the process of crafting their rules for the 2016 cycle. They will meet and elect the new members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee in Scottsdale, AZ in August.]

Recent Posts:
Omnibus Elections Bill Could Move North Carolina Presidential Primary to February

New Texas Law Further Clarifies State-Level Guidance Over Presidential Delegate Selection

Update: 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar (6/13/13)

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Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Omnibus Elections Bill Could Move North Carolina Presidential Primary to February

North Carolina Republicans have been busy -- and in the news locally and nationwide too -- after taking unified control of the executive and legislative branches in the Tarheel state for the first time since Reconstruction following the 2012 elections. The latest from the General Assembly is legislation -- a state Senate committee substitute to HB 589 -- that would significantly alter the administration of elections and registration of those potentially participating in them. There are folks on both sides of the discussions around the alterations to elections, and that is a matter for a different forum.

FHQ is more interested in part 35 of the bill. That is the section that "conditionally" moves the North Carolina presidential primary to the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary. The clause in question?
On the Tuesday after the first Monday in May, 1992, and every four years thereafter, the voters of this State shall be given an opportunity to express their preference for the person to be the presidential candidate of their political party.party, except that if South Carolina holds its presidential primary before the 15th day of March, the North Carolina presidential preference primary shall be held on the Tuesday after the first South Carolina presidential preference primary of that year.
The struck through portion is what would be removed from the existing law. The underlined part is the addition.

Now, FHQ used quotation marks around conditionally above for one simple reason. The conditionality is hollow. The Democratic National Committee has not weighed in yet, but the Republican National Committee has already voted on 2016 presidential nomination rules that guarantee the South Carolina presidential primary will be in February; well before March 15.

It should also be noted that South Carolina has traditionally held a Saturday primary which would mean a February primary on a Saturday triggers a North Carolina primary just three days later. That would additionally mean that, depending upon where on the calendar all of this occurs, that the North Carolina Republican and Democratic Parties and voters could get hammered with the new Republican super penalty (and whatever strictures the DNC institutes next year). If that penalty had been in place in 2012, North Carolina Republicans would have lost over three-quarters of the total delegation to the national convention in Tampa.

The interesting thing now is that North Carolina legislators are either being extremely shrewd or have stumbled on the best dumb luck in presidential primary calendar politics of the last few cycles.1 As the current Republican rules are structured, the super penalty is only levied on states with contests prior to the last Tuesday in February. In 2016, that's February 23, the same date as the Arizona and Michigan primaries. If South Carolina opts for the Saturday before that point on the calendar -- as FHQ has speculated it might here2 -- that puts North Carolina on the same date as Arizona and Michigan. That scheduling has the additional byproduct of helping the Tarheel state avoid the super penalty.

There are a lot of fun possibilities here, but at this point, it is not clear that the primary portion of the bill will survive the legislative process and be signed into any resulting law. For one thing, if passed, North Carolina would have separate presidential and state and local primaries for the first time since 1988 (and only the second time in the post-reform era). That additional election will cost the state; something that has prevented a similar move numerous times in the past. This version of the bill is, after all, a committee substitute. It has to go to the floor as well.

But it is nice to see a fun primary bill come up during a slow summer when (presidential primary) things appeared to be winding down for the year on the state legislative front.

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1 FHQ has watched all of this primary movement closer than most over the last two cycles and we have not seen a lot of dumb luck out there. And only rarely are there shrewd moves (see Missouri).

2This assumes there is a period of relative calm in 2015 as the presidential primary calendar forms in an orderly and rules-compliant manner. That is far from a sure thing, but the national parties have a fairly decent rules regime in place to combat some of the chaos of 2008 and 2012.

Recent Posts:
New Texas Law Further Clarifies State-Level Guidance Over Presidential Delegate Selection

Update: 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar (6/13/13)

DC Bill Would Move District's Presidential Primary to June

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Friday, June 21, 2013

New Texas Law Further Clarifies State-Level Guidance Over Presidential Delegate Selection

Late last week, Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) signed into law Senate Bill 1398. Substantively, the legislation does not fundamentally change the presidential delegate selection process across parties in the Lone Star state, but it does provide some state governmental guidance as to how the allocation process should be conducted.

At its core, the bill was intended to provide both state parties some cover -- by codifying their methods -- relative to the existing or expected national party rules governing delegate selection in 2016 and beyond. Here's the before and after:

Before:
Sec. 191.007.  ALLOCATION OF DELEGATES.  Each political party holding a presidential primary election shall adopt a rule for allocating delegates based on the results of the presidential primary election.

After (underlined portions indicate additions, strikethroughs mean subtractions):
Sec. 191.007.  ALLOCATION OF DELEGATES.
(a)  Each political party holding a presidential primary election shall adopt a rule for allocating delegates [based on the results of the presidential primary election].

(b)A rule adopted under this section may utilize either a proportional or winner-take-all method, based on the results of the presidential primary election, which may be based on:
(1) a direct tie to statewide popular vote totals;
(2) a direct tie to congressional or state senatorial district popular vote totals; or
(3) an alternative disproportionate method that is based on statewide, congressional district, or state senatorial district popular vote totals. 
(c) Subsection (b) does not apply to delegates allocated: (1) among party and elected officials; or (2) through an allocation based on participants registering for or attending a caucus or similar process, provided that at [At] least 75 percent of the total number of delegates who are to represent this state at the party's national presidential nominating convention, excluding delegates allocated among party and elected officials, shall be allocated in accordance with the rule adopted under this section based on the results of the presidential primary election [among one or more of the candidates whose names appear on the presidential primary election ballot and, if applicable, the uncommitted status].

In a nutshell, the new Texas statute basically allows the state parties to continue what they have been doing.

For Republicans that means some leeway on the proportionality question (should that requirement be reinstated). It would not, then, have to be an either/or proposition; either true winner-take-all or true proportional allocations. Given the current primary date called for in state law -- the first Tuesday in March -- Texas Republicans could/would have some options in terms of having a truly proportional allocation or opting into the less proportional methods allowed under the RNC definition of proportionality. [In reality, the Republican Party in Texas always had that option under the former state law.]

On the Democratic side of the equation, things are mostly the same, save one notable exception. Yes, the new law provides the state party the latitude to filter the delegate selection process through state senate district conventions/caucuses as opposed to congressional district versions of those meetings as has been the case. There is even an exception for the primary-caucus (the Texas two-step  it was called in 2008) that got so much attention during the Clinton-Obama race. What is different, though, is that there is now a required percentage of delegates that have to be allocated through the presidential primary. That will not necessarily jibe well with the Democratic delegate apportionment to Texas. The way things broke down in 2008 was that the at-large, statewide delegates were allocated based on the primary results and the congressional district delegates -- reapportioned across state senate districts -- were allocated through the caucus/convention mechanism. Roughly 65% of the delegates, then, were allocated based on the results of the primary with the remainder going the caucus route. That balance -- at-large to congressional district delegates -- will not necessarily comply with the changes to this law. That will potentially complicate the crafting of the Texas Democratic delegate selection plan in 2016.

...or it could lead to a lawsuit, that precedent (via Tashjian) seems to indicate would side with the state party over the state government law.

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As subsection C indicates, both parties' party/superdelegates/automatic delegates are not subject to the allocation guidelines set forth in the new law.

Again, the substantive changes are relatively minute here, but there are some interesting possible implications when it comes time to implement and enforce this new law.

[Hat tip to Tony Roza at The Green Papers for bringing this legislation to my attention way back in March when it was introduced.]

Recent Posts:
Update: 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar (6/13/13)

DC Bill Would Move District's Presidential Primary to June

Under Fire Again, Will Iowa Caucuses Remain First?

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Thursday, June 13, 2013

Update: 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar (6/13/13)

As there have been a handful of changes to state election law and a number of state legislative sessions have adjourned for 2013 -- killing legislation that could have impacted the 2016 presidential primary dates -- an update to the calendar is in order.

[Find the calendar's permanent home here. There is a link to the 2016 calendar in the upper left corner of the page as well.]

Changes:
  • Florida has been moved to a March 1 primary date. Given the current state of the RNC rules -- no proportionality requirement; first Tuesday in March as the first unpenalized date -- and the changes to Florida's statute concerning the presidential primary in the Sunshine state -- primary held on first date in which there is no penalty -- March 1 is the date. However, should the proportionality requirement be reinstated -- something that is likely in the offing at some point -- then Florida would shift back to the first Tuesday in April according to the statute. 
  • Legislation in Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Texas that would have moved or established presidential primaries died. All have been reshaded on the map below.
Notes:
You will note that none of the so-called carve-out states are included on the calendar. During the 2012 cycle, FHQ added those states to calendar as a means of reflecting the reality of the typical formation of the calendar. Namely, that those states will position their contests relative to and earlier than the date of the next earliest contest. Missouri is the next earliest contest, non-compliant though that contest may be. If that holds, then Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina (if not other states) will push once again into January. That (worst case scenario) is likely to look something like this:
  • Saturday, January 2: Iowa caucuses
  • Tuesday, January 5: New Hampshire primary
  • Saturday, January 16: Nevada caucuses
  • Saturday, January 23: South Carolina primary
There are a couple of other factors to note in the calculus that each of the above states will/could undergo.
  1. State law requires a seven day window after the New Hampshire primary. That eliminates January 12 as a possibility if Nevada falls on January 16.
  2. None of this prevents a scenario like the one that played out in late 2011 from happening again if the carve-out states are pushed up against the cusp of the new year. In other words, Iowa's parties could nab Monday, January 4 as the date of its caucuses and then force another stand-off between New Hampshire and Nevada. That could push Nevada to a later date and allow Secretary of State Bill Gardner the chance to claim January 12 for New Hampshire. The difference in 2016 is that the secretary will have to contend with both the Nevada Democratic and Republican parties; not just the Republicans. Of course, historically, Gardner remains undefeated in the game of keeping New Hampshire first. 
  3. There is a long wait for any of this to occur. None of this will go down until 2015.
The best case scenario at this point looks something like this:
  • Monday, January 25: Iowa caucuses
  • Tuesday, February 2: New Hampshire primary
  • Saturday, February 13: Nevada caucuses
  • Saturday, February 20: South Carolina primary
This assumes that Arizona and Michigan are the next earliest contests on February 23. 

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Here is a snapshot of what things look like now (6/13/13):

Reading the Map:

As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Arizona, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in February than California is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
  1. Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2016. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  2. The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the month to which the primary could be moved. 
  3. States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event (see Nebraska). This holds true for states -- typically caucus states -- with a history of different dates across parties but which also have not yet chosen a contest date.
--
Reading the calendar:
  1. Note that if you click on the state name in the calendar below, the link will take you to the relevant section of the state's law or party's bylaws covering the date of the primary or caucus.
  2. Links to discussions of 2013 state-level legislation addressing the dates of future presidential primaries have also been added (see 2013 Legislation in the calendar).
  3. Markers have also been added indicating whether legislation has become law or has died at some point in the legislative process. 

2016 Presidential Primary Calendar

February
Tuesday, February 2:
Missouri (2013 Legislation: March primary: House/Senate, April primary -- all Died in Committee)
Utah3 (2013 Legislation: Primary funding -- Signed into Law)

Tuesday, February 23:
March
Tuesday, March 1:
Florida4 (2013 Legislation: March primary -- Died in Committee; Primary on first unpenalized date -- Signed into Law)
Massachusetts (2013 legislation: June primary)
Texas (2013 Legislation: Saturday primary, February primary -- all Died in Committee)

Tuesday, March 8:

Tuesday, March 15:

Saturday, March 19:

April
Tuesday, April 5:
Washington, DC (2013 Legislation: June primary)

Tuesday, April 26:

May
Tuesday, May 3:

Tuesday, May 10:

Tuesday, May 17:

Tuesday, May 24:

June
Tuesday, June 7:
Montana (2013 Legislation: May primary -- Died in Committee)

Primary states with no specified date:
Maine (2013 Legislation: establish primary -- Died in Committee)
Nevada7 (2013 Legislation: January primary -- Died in Committee)
New Hampshire
New York
South Carolina

Without dwelling on something that is WELL before its time, FHQ should note that those February states are only problematic in 2016 if the two parties' delegates selection rules mirror the rules from the 2012 cycle. They may or may not. The real problem children, if you will, are the primary states without specified dates for 2016. As of June 2013 they remain the free agents for the 2016 primary calendar and the ones that may bear the most intense watching between now and mid-2015. That said, first things first: The first step is a set of rules from the DNC and RNC. We have a ways to go before the parties settle on/finalize something on that front (summer 2014). The Republican Party is further along in its process than are the Democrats.

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1 The state parties have the option of choosing either the first Tuesday in March date called for in the statute or moving up to the first Tuesday in February.
2 The state parties must agree on a date on which to hold caucuses by March 1 in the year prior to a presidential election. If no agreement is reached, the caucuses are set for the first Tuesday in February.
3 The Western States Presidential Primary in Utah is scheduled for the first Tuesday in February, but the contest will only be held on that date if the state legislature decides to allocate funds for the primary.
4 The newly signed presidential primary law would move the Florida primary to the first Tuesday in which the national parties do not penalize states. 
5 See definition of "Spring primary" for clause dealing with the timing of the presidential primary.
6 Kansas has not held a presidential primary since 1992. Funds have not been appropriated by the legislature for the primary since that time. That said, there are laws in place providing for a presidential preference primary. Assuming funding, the Kansas secretary of state has the option of choosing a date -- on or before November 1 in the year preceding the presidential election -- that either coincides with at least 5 other states' delegate selection events or is on the first Tuesday in April or before.
7 A Republican-sponsored bill during the 2013 session of the Nevada legislature would create a consolidated primary (presidential primary together with state primaries) and move the contest from June to January.


Recent Posts:
DC Bill Would Move District's Presidential Primary to June

Under Fire Again, Will Iowa Caucuses Remain First?

February Presidential Primary Outlasts Another Missouri Legislative Session

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Thursday, June 6, 2013

DC Bill Would Move District's Presidential Primary to June

A bill introduced in early May in the Council of the District of Columbia would shift back the date of the presidential primary in the nation's capital. B20-0265 proposes moving the primary from the first Tuesday in April to the second Tuesday after the first Monday in June.

This potential move in interesting in a couple of respects.
  1. The introduced 2011 legislation that ultimately moved the Washington, DC primary from the second Tuesday in February, where it coincided with primaries in neighboring Maryland and Virginia -- the Potomac Primary -- in 2008, called for shifting the primary back to June. That bill started off in the same form before being amended in committee and passed/signed, moving the DC primary to April. 
  2. This push back to June is not motivated by a need to consolidate the presidential primaries with those for other District-wide offices. The same 2011 legislation accomplished that as well. This was the same sort of cost-saving measure that was taken in other states across the country in 2011 including in Alabama, California and New Jersey.
It is unclear, then, what the motivation for the move is. One could speculate that the intent is to shorten the general election campaigns for local officials by two months. If this rescheduling takes place, it would position DC at the very last point on the calendar -- the second Tuesday in June1 -- that both national parties allow.

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UPDATE (12/17/14): Bill passes DC Council
UPDATE (2/6/15): Bill signed, cleared for congressional review


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1 Of course, in years in which June 1 is on a Tuesday, the second Tuesday after the first Monday in June would actually be the third Tuesday in June. Noncompliant under the parties' current rules.


Recent Posts:
Under Fire Again, Will Iowa Caucuses Remain First?

February Presidential Primary Outlasts Another Missouri Legislative Session

Maine Presidential Primary Bill Gets 'Ought not pass' from Committee

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