Ohio to Move to a Later Spot on the 2016 Presidential Primary Calendar?

The compromise to move the Michigan presidential primary to March 8 may end up leaving the Great Lakes state lonely on the calendar on that date. Alabama and Mississippi may vacate for the SEC primary a week earlier (on March 1) and now there are whispers in Ohio that legislators in the Buckeye state may not keep the presidential primary on March 8.¹

From Henry J. Gomez at the Northeast Ohio Media Group:

Per sources in Columbus, something to watch in the coming weeks - whether March 8 holds as the date for Ohio's 2016 presidential primary. Under Republican National Committee rules, any state that holds its primary before March 15 could be penalized if they don't award delegates proportionally. But states that hold primaries March 15 or later could award delegates under a winner-take-all format.

Other than the maneuvering in Florida (and Arizona), there has not been any widespread movement by states to move to protect winner-take-all rules. Neither has there been any evidence of Republican Parties in states currently scheduled after March 15 (and showing no signs of changing dates) to adopt winner-take-all rules to replace their rules from 2012. [That may change as 2015 progresses, but that is a pattern -- no or little rules changes -- that is consistent with what was witnessed during a comparable period in 2011.]

Ohio may change that some.

But allow FHQ a couple of addenda to the rumors in Ohio:

1. Unresolved redistricting issues had Ohio all over the calendar in 2011. Coming into the 2011 legislative session, Ohio was scheduled to hold a presidential primary on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March. The ongoing dispute over district boundaries had legislators first push the primary to May. Then the law the primary move was housed was challenged in court and the date reverted to March. But the districts issue remained, so the legislature created a separate presidential and US House primary in June. Then, in mid-December 2011 -- just more than two weeks before the Iowa caucuses -- a legislative agreement on the district boundaries facilitated a move back to March. There is no redistricting conflict in 2015, but there is still a legislative process that any change to the primary date in Ohio would have to navigate first. 
2. Ohio Republicans utilized a delegate selection plan in 2012 that has them right smack in the middle of truly winner-take-all and truly proportional. The small sliver of Ohio delegates that are at-large (allocated based on the statewide results) were allocated proportionate to a candidate's share of the statewide vote. The bigger cache of congressional district delegates were allocated winner-take-all based on the vote outcome in the congressional district. Ohio Republicans would have to change things regardless of a move. To comply with the 2016 RNC rules, Ohio Republicans would have to proportionalize the allocation of those congressional district delegates. And if they move to a later date -- post-March 15 -- there would likely be a change to at least the proportional allocation of the at-large delegates (to winner-take-all). If the move occurs that is the most likely outcome: at-large delegates allocated winner-take-all to the statewide winner and the three congressional district delegates in each district allocated to the winner of that district. That is the traditional way -- a winner-take-all by congressional district or winner-take-most plan -- that Ohio Republicans have allocated delegates in the past. Granting all the delegates to the statewide winner would be a departure for the party. 

Both points are worth keeping in mind if an effort to move the presidential primary materializes.

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¹ Hawaii Republicans have caucuses planned for March 8 as of now, but even if the party keeps its delegate selection event in that spot, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which Hawaii will actually compete with mainland Michigan for candidate attention. Idaho and Washington are also eyeing March 8 as a possible destination for their primaries.

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Maryland Senate Unanimously Passes Presidential Primary Move to Late April

The Maryland state Senate on Thursday, March 5 unanimously passed SB 204.¹ The measure, amended from its original form, would move the presidential primary in the Old Line state from the first Tuesday in April back to the fourth Tuesday in April.

This move is being made to avoid the administration of the election overlapping with religious holidays during the month of April. By moving back three weeks on the calendar -- instead of the originally proposed one week move -- the bill would schedule the presidential primary on the same date as primaries in neighboring Delaware and Pennsylvania as well as Connecticut and Rhode Island.

Maryland has been a part of subregional primaries in each of the last two presidential election cycles.

The bill now moves to the state House for consideration. Legislation identical to the original Senate bill has already been filed in the House.

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UPDATE (3/15/15): House bill clears committee


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¹ The bill passed on a 47-0 vote.

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March Presidential Primary Bill Out of Utah Clears Committee Stage

The bill to shift the date of the Western States Presidential Primary from the first Tuesday in February to the fourth Tuesday in March passed the Utah state House Government Operations Committee on Thursday, March 5.

HB 329 passed the committee favorably on a 7-1 vote but was amended in the process. That amendment did not have any affect on the date change for the primary. The move would bring the Utah presidential primary back into compliance with the national party rules, but that change may matter far less in light of the fact that the Utah Republican Party is on course to switch from the use of a primary to a caucuses/convention system in 2016.

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Utah Republican Party Moving Closer to 2016 Caucuses

This flew under FHQ's radar in the recent flurry of legislative action on presidential primary laws across the nation.

The Utah Republican Party voted unanimously in an emergency meeting on Wednesday, February 18 in favor of a resolution to hold caucuses next year in the presidential nomination race in lieu of continuing with the state-funded primary. The move is yet more fallout from the continued flap over the nomination process for most offices in Utah that has pitted the Utah Republican Party against the state legislature/government.

FHQ has touched on this divide some already, but Robert Gehrke at the Salt Lake Tribune sums up the battle lines quite nicely here:

Under the SB54 compromise struck last session, candidates can go through a party's convention and try to win the nomination by gaining support from delegates chosen at neighborhood caucuses. Alternatively, they can gather a requisite number of signatures from eligible voters to secure a spot on the primary ballot.

It is that latter option that the Utah Republican Party has objected to and has ultimately dragged the party's 2016 delegate selection process for president into the fray. The Executive Committee of the party passed the resolution to make the switch from primary to caucuses at the February meeting, but the Utah Republican Party Central Committee has to actually make the changes to the state party bylaws bring the switch to fruition. The group is set to meet on Saturday, March 7 to address the matter.

The impending Saturday meeting has prompted reaction from Mitt Romney, the Republican standard bearer in the 2012 presidential election. In a letter to party and government officials, Romney made the case for a primary over a caucuses/convention system, urging the letter's audience to get behind legislation currently before the state legislature to move the primary election back into compliance with the national party delegate selection rules. Of course, regardless of how the state government moves on that March primary bill, the state party will have the final say in how its delegates to the national convention are chosen. Right now, it appears that the Utah Republican Party is moving toward caucuses, but the big guns have been brought out to urge the party to reconsider.

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NOTE: Saturday may be an interesting day for the primary calendar. Utah Republicans will not be alone in looking to switch from a primary to caucuses. Kentucky Republicans will be considering a similar change at a meeting of their own on March 7.

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March Presidential Primary Bill Divides Democrats But Passes Washington State Senate

Half of the 24 member Democratic caucus in the Washington state Senate joined unified majority Republicans in the upper chamber to pass SB 5978 on Tuesday, March 3. The bill would move the presidential primary in the Evergreen state from May to the second Tuesday in March.

The AP has an account of the vote here. FHQ would counter AP reporter Derrick Nunnally's assessment that the bill is intended to strengthen the presidential primary. The better way of describing the rationale behind the Washington secretary of state-backed move is one of enticement.

The reason Democrats in the state Senate were divided over SB 5978 was that the state Democratic Party has traditionally had little to do with the presidential primary election since its first run in the 1992 presidential election cycle. In fact, Washington Democrats have had less than little to do with the primary. They have used a caucuses/convention system to select and allocate delegates in each of the six cycles that the Washington presidential primary has existed.

Secretary of State Kim Wyman (R) and legislative Republicans appear to be unified in support of the earlier primary, but are trying to coax Democrats -- or enough Democrats -- to go along with them.

Part of the package of enticements is the earlier primary. A second Tuesday in March primary would hypothetically be early enough to provide voters in the state of Washington with a voice in the presidential nomination process. But the last primary in 2008 was in the middle of February. Both parties held caucuses a week and a half before that primary. Both national parties allowed February contests in 2008, but a February primary that year did not prove to be enough to bring Democrats into the process.

Mostly that was because the primary, though early, was essentially open to voters outside of the Democratic Party (because there is no party registration in Washington). And the Washington Democratic Party has preferred closed caucuses in which only Democrats were affecting the selection and allocation of delegates. To deal with that issue, SB 5978 also includes a provision that -- provided both state parties opt into the primary and decide to allocate at least some of their national convention delegates based on the results -- would require voters to declare which party's primary in which they intend to vote.

Is that enough to get Democrats in the legislature on board with the idea? Half of the Democratic caucus in the state Senate was open to the idea, but the state party seems to be leaning toward maintaining the caucuses system. The now-Senate-passed SB 5978 now moves to the Democratic-controlled state House for consideration. There is an identical bill already in the committee stage in the lower chamber, but there is now also a bill there to cancel the 2016 presidential primary altogether. The 2012 Washington primary was also canceled.

All this sets up an interesting possible impasse. If the Republican Senate prefers the March primary legislation and the Democratic House ends up pushing the primary cancelation, the default is the May primary that is already in the statutes. The state legislature may be unwilling to expend the $11.5 million on a May primary likely to be after the point at which both national parties have settled on nominees in 2016. The end game would appear to be that that eventuality -- the above hypothetical impasse -- would push the parties toward earlier caucuses dates, making the multimillion dollar expenditure much less likely.

All eyes will now be on the state House now. The early primary proposals and the possible cancelation of the primary are all on their doorstep now.

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Washington State House Bill Would Cancel 2016 Presidential Primary

Late last week on Friday, February 27, Washington state Representative Sam Hunt (D-22nd, Olympia) introduced HB 2185. The bill, offered based on a request from the Washington Office of Financial Management, calls for the cancelation of the 2016 presidential primary in the Evergreen state.

In light of the fact that Washington Secretary of State Kim Wyman (R) requested bills (in both the House and Senate) to move the presidential primary up from May to March, this is an interesting development. That is made all the more curious because one of the co-sponsors of the March primary bill in the House is Rep. Hunt, the main sponsor of this new legislation to cancel that primary election.

The Washington legislature passed legislation in 2011 to cancel the 2012 presidential primary. That bill was later signed into law and was estimated to have saved the state $10 million. Given the request from the Office of Financial Management, it would appear that similar potential savings are behind this move also. That Washington Democrats have never really used the primary to allocate delegates in the past and Republicans have had an on-again-off-again relationship with the primary would factor into any decision to cancel the primary as well. Democrats control the state House, but Republicans control the state Senate. This may move in the state House, then, but potentially find resistance on the Senate side.

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UPDATE (3/3/15): Senate bill passes

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Idaho Senate Passes March Presidential Primary Bill

Idaho got one step closer to bringing back a presidential primary on Tuesday, March 3. By a 23-11 vote, the Idaho state Senate passed SB 1066.¹ The measure would reestablish a presidential primary election in the Gem state, but schedule it to coincide with second Tuesday in March school elections instead the May position it has been consolidated on with other primaries for state and local offices.

Democrats in Idaho have traditionally selected and allocated delegates to the national convention through a caucuses/convention system, but when Idaho Republicans followed suit -- abandoning the May primary for March caucuses for the 2012 cycle -- the Republican-controlled legislature eliminated the May presidential primary.

The bill to revive the presidential primary now moves to the state House, where at least one representative and member of the Idaho Republican State Central Committee, Ronald Nate (R-34th, Rexburg), has already spoken out against the move.² How widespread that opposition is in the House remains to be seen. The Idaho Republican Party recently passed a resolution to support a shift back to the primary from caucuses if the legislature is able to pass a bill.

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¹ Five Republicans joined all six minority party Democrats in opposition to the bill.

² Rep. Nate had the following to say on SB 1066 in the Senate hearing (via Betsy Z. Russell at the Idaho Spokesman-Review):

Rep. Ron Nate, R-Rexburg, said he was speaking not as a state representative but as a Republican Party official, a current Idaho GOP central committee member and the past rules committee chairman. “Nominating presidential candidates is a party function,” Nate told the Senate State Affairs Committee. “The Idaho taxpayer should not be forced to pay for Democratic, Republican or other party’s nominations. … With current budget priorities like education and transportation in question in Idaho, we should not be spending another nickel and certainly not another $2 million to help political parties do their work.” 

Nate said the Idaho GOP in January approved an absentee voting process for its presidential selection caucuses that he said would address concerns about some members, from military members to the elderly, not being able to participate.

Similar arguments were made on the floor of the state Senate when the bill was being debated.

Rep. Nate was also the chair of the 2012 Idaho Republican Caucuses and helped draft the rules that governed them.

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From Mississippi, One SEC Primary Bill Dead, Another Survives Deadline

Tuesday, March 3 marked the day in the Mississippi state legislature that bills passed in one chamber had to have made it through committee in the opposite chamber. Neither of the bills -- one from the House and one from the Senate -- affecting the date of the presidential primary in the Magnolia state had cleared that hurdle heading into Tuesday.

Once the dust had settled on the day, the state Senate-passed version of the bill (SB 2531) was reported favorably from the House Apportionment and Elections Committee while the House-passed version (HB 933) failed to navigate the Senate Rules Committee.

This was not an oversight. Recall that both bills started off in the same place -- with identical language -- but an amended version of the Senate bill passed the Senate and headed to the House.  The bill introduced in the House, however, pushed through the committee phase and consideration on the floor without amendment.

The state Senate, then, would have been motivated to support its amended version and not the unamended one the House passed and sent the upper chamber.

That is one interpretation of the move. But this likely is not a story of inter-chamber dispute. Rather, the Mississippi legislature only has to pass one of these bills. It could wrangle over two different bills or it could drop one and negotiated over the particulars of the other. Given the events of yesterday, it is clear legislators opted to take the latter path.

The House Apportionment and Elections Committee made some minor changes to SB 2531 and recommended that the bill "do pass" on the House floor. But if the bill passes the House it will have to return to the Senate for the upper chamber's approval of the changes made by the House committee (and floor if there are amendments made there).

The bottom line, though, is that the process to move the Mississippi presidential primary up a week on the presidential primary calendar -- to the proposed SEC primary slot -- moved forward Tuesday.

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UPDATE (3/11/15): Amended Senate bill passes state House

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Florida Senate Committee Reports March 15 Presidential Primary Bill Favorably

The Florida state Senate Committee on Ethics and Elections conducted a hearing on SB 7036 this afternoon (Tuesday, March 3). The legislation would create a "static and permanent" date for the Florida presidential primary on March 15.

There was some discussion about the bill, but it was not extensive. Mainly, Florida Democrats on the committee questioned how the bill would affect the Democratic primary process in the Sunshine state. The provisions in the bill do not affect the Democratic Party any differently. The primary date would be on March 15.

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The one thing that did come up that FHQ would push back on is that this bill is intended to allow Florida Republicans to maintain winner-take-all rules. It was argued that current law calls for a March 1 primary which would prevent the Republican Party of Florida from allocating its delegates in a winner-take-all fashion.

This is not true. And FHQ is probably to blame. If not for this post -- based on a misreading of the RNC rules described in the Editor's Note here -- legislators in the Sunshine state would likely not have come to this conclusion. I know. That sounds big-headed of me, but they got the March 1 date interpretation from the FHQ 2016 presidential primary calendar (see footnote 5 here).

And it is wrong. I was wrong.

There is nothing that prevents Florida Republicans from having a winner-take-all primary under the current law. The law, as it stands now, moves the Florida presidential primary to the earliest date that would avoid penalties. If Florida Republicans did not have some version of winner-take-all rules in their delegate allocation plan, then that earliest, non-penalized point on the calendar would be March 1. But since it appears as if winner-take-all is going nowhere, that earliest, non-penalized date is March 15.

There is no need for Florida legislators to change the law. It would call for a March 15 primary date regardless. The one benefit to the change is clarity. A "static and permanent" date does that.

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The bill -- identical to the House committee-passed bill -- now moves on to consideration on the Senate floor.

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Amended Senate Bill Would Push Maryland Presidential Primary Back Further into April

SB 204 passed a procedural hurdle on Tuesday, March 3 in the Maryland state Senate, but not before the bill an amendment was offered and agreed to on the floor by its author and sponsor, Sen. Joan Carter Conway (D-43rd, Baltimore City).

In its amended form, SB 204 would shift the presidential primary in Maryland from the first Tuesday in April to the fourth Tuesday in April. Previous versions pushed the election back just one week to the second Tuesday in April.

The reason for the initial change was to prevent an overlap between weekend early voting and the Easter holiday. Furthermore, the final canvass and certification of the results after the election would avoid a conflict with the Passover holiday. However, the new fourth Tuesday in April date called for in the amended bill falls right in the middle of the Passover week in 2016; on April 26.

The one benefit of the fourth Tuesday in April date is that it coincides with a number of other primaries in nearby states; notably Pennsylvania and Delaware, but Connecticut and Rhode Island as well. Maryland has been a part of subregional primaries during the last two cycles. It was paired with the primary in Washington, DC in 2012 and combined with both DC and Virginia for the Potomac Primary in 2008.

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UPDATE (3/5/15): Bill passes state Senate
UPDATE (3/15/15): House bill clears committee

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