"...allows the party to..."

Ohio officially moved its presidential primary from March 8 to March 15 with Governor John Kasich's signature yesterday. Any time a state with 66 delegates moves -- even if only a week -- it is newsworthy.

But let's be real about the implications here. Here's is how Randy Ludlow describes it in the Columbus Dispatch:

Moving the presidential primary from March 8 to March 15 next year shifts Ohio from awarding its presidential convention delegates proportionally to granting all the delegates to the statewide winner.

That is not technically right. And it really is not something FHQ should feel compelled to respond to except for the fact that the difference between being misleading (about the process) and accurately describing matters is a four word phrase: allows the party to.

As in, "Moving the presidential primary from March 8 to March 15 next year allows the [Ohio Republican] party to shift from awarding its presidential convention delegates proportionally to granting all the delegates to the statewide winner."

Just four words turn the original text -- that implies a switch from proportional to winner-take-all was automatic upon Kasich's signature -- into a brief sentence that captures the sequence of all of this. The state government has completed its work by passing a bill through the legislature that was subsequently signed into law by the governor. In primary states, it is the state government that controls the date of the contest. However, the state parties hold the power to set the delegate allocation method (within national party guidelines).

Ohio Republicans have signaled that that switch -- proportional to winner-take-all -- is coming, but FHQ has yet to see any reporting (or anything on the Ohio Republican Party website to confirm) that a rules change has actually been made yet. In 2011, Ohio Republicans did not settle on a delegate allocation plan for 2012 until October (due to a prolonged redistricting dispute). With no redistricting conflicts, Ohio Republicans will have the ability to set those rules a little earlier in 2015 than they did in 2011.

Again, the Ohio presidential primary has moved to March 15. The state government controls that. However, the state party controls the method of delegate allocation. Those are interrelated but distinct actions taken by different actors.

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The other troubling thing here -- and this was likely not Ludlow's intent in a very brief item -- is that by making it seem as if a primary date change automatically triggers a delegate allocation change, it builds on the false 2012 narrative that once the proportionality window closes, all primaries and caucuses are winner-take-all. In other words, the Republican National Committee has required winner-take-all contests on and after March 15. That was false in 2012 and it is false for the 2016 cycle. The close of the proportionality window marks the end of the RNC's requirements on delegate allocation at the state level. Once the window closes, state parties are free to set a method of delegate allocation of their choosing. It can be proportional. It can be winner-take-all. It can be some hybrid in between. The state party's hold maximum latitude in setting their delegate allocation rules if that state has a contest on or after March 15.

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Bill to Move Pennsylvania Presidential Primary to March 15 Introduced

On Wednesday, June 10, Pennsylvania state Representative Keith Greiner (R-43rd, Lancaster) introduced HB 1318. The legislation would move the presidential primary (and those for other offices) up to the third Tuesday in March. With rare exception, the Pennsylvania presidential primary has been scheduled on the fourth Tuesday in April throughout the post-reform era.¹

Greiner's bill claims the bipartisan support of 16 co-sponsors (11 Republicans and 5 Democrats) and would align the Pennsylvania presidential primary with those in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Like Illinois, Pennsylvania directly elects delegates to the national convention in the primary and the presidential preference vote is a beauty contest. That adds some nuance to a date on the 2016 presidential primary calendar that already serves as the first day after the close of the Republican proportionality window. The other three contests are already winner-take-all (Florida), have a history with a winner-take-all allocation in the pre-proportionality era (Missouri) or are signaling a potential shift to winner-take-all rules (Ohio). If those three end up with truly winner-take-all allocation plans, that potentially makes both Illinois and Pennsylvania tougher draws for the candidates (or not an alternative with clear delegate gains).

However, that likely puts the cart before the horse in Pennsylvania. The newly introduced legislation will have to navigate a Republican-controlled legislature, but also pass muster with a Democratic governor. The former may be the easier task as Republicans are more motivated this cycle to have an earlier primary than Democrats. Republicans, it can be argued are after a guarantee that their respective state's contest will influence the Republican nomination. Democrats, on the other hand, are motivated to stick with a date that on the calendar that offers additional delegates to the national convention in Philadelphia. The later date and group of neighboring states with contests already slated for April 26 both would lead to bonus delegates. That, in turn, means that Democrats in the Keystone state may have more incentive to maintain the status quo primary date in April.

There are Democratic co-sponsors to the HB 1318, but the chair of the state Democratic Party has already spoken out in opposition to the move (as has the Pennsylvania Republican chair). Pennsylvania is getting a late start on this compared to most other states and the road is not necessarily a clear one toward passage and a gubernatorial signature. The move would not be without implications. A March Pennsylvania presidential primary would further compress an already compressed calendar in 2016 (as compared to four years ago).

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¹ The lone exception since the reformed system of nominating presidential candidates began in 1972 is the 2000 cycle when Pennsylvania shared the first Tuesday in April date with the Wisconsin presidential primary.

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Ohio Presidential Primary Moves to March 15

Ohio Governor John Kasich (R) signed HB 153 into law according to a Wednesday, June 10 press release.¹ The measure shifts back the date of the Ohio primary election -- presidential primary included -- from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March to the second Tuesday after the first Monday in March.

That slight change means the Ohio presidential primary will move from March 8 to March 15 for the 2016 cycle. The move pushes the Ohio Republican presidential primary out of the RNC proportionality window, allowing Republicans in the Buckeye state to allocate delegates in a winner-take-all fashion. The party has signaled that it would make that rules change as well. However, that alteration was not brought about by Kasich's signature on the bill. The signing did facilitate such a change, but the state party will have to act on that.

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¹ Press release:

06.10.15 Kasich Signs Am. H.B. 153

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March 1 a Go for Colorado Democratic Caucuses in 2016

A few weeks ago, the Colorado Democratic Party released a draft of its 2016 delegate selection plan.¹ Following the failed attempt at the close of the 2015 state legislative session to switch from a caucus/convention system to a more open primary system, both parties were essentially locked into caucuses and Colorado Democrats have selected March 1 for the date on which to hold their "first determining step" caucuses.

Parties in Colorado have two possible dates on which they can conduct precinct caucuses (with a presidential preference vote): the first Tuesday in February or the first Tuesday in March. The former is an option added for the 2008 cycle to allow the state parties the latitude to opt into a date that would be early enough to at the very least keep the Colorado caucuses in line with the logjam of states holding contests on February 5, Super Tuesday in 2008. As 2012 approached, the February option remained in state law, but the March option was pushed up a couple of weeks from the third to first Tuesday in March.

That meant that the second, later option was in line with the earliest date allowed on the informally coordinated calendar structure the national parties had devised for the 2012 cycle; the first Tuesday in March. It also meant that the caucuses date choice allowed by Colorado law was basically an optionless option. The national party delegate selection rules in 2012 prohibited February contests (with some loopholes and nose-thumbing states). Colorado Democrats settled on the March option in 2011 and have done so again in 2015 for the 2016 presidential election cycle.

Though non-binding caucuses technically allowed Colorado Republicans to hold February 7 caucuses in 2012 without penalty from the Republican National Committee, the new 2016 rules requiring the binding of delegates (based on the earliest, statewide vote) limits Republicans in the Centennial state in a way they were not in 2011. It also means that Colorado Republicans would be vulnerable to the more severe penalties the RNC introduced for 2016. Still, the option exists, but it is a decision for another time.

For now, Colorado Democrats are headed for March 1 caucuses. That places Colorado caucusgoers behind only Nevadans on the calendar in western state voting.

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¹ The above link is to the plan from the Colorado Democratic Party site. FHQ will also keep a version of the plan here.

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Alabama to March 1, Joins SEC Primary

On Thursday, May 21, the Alabama House passed legislation moving the presidential primary (and those for other offices) up a week to the first Tuesday in March. The measure, SB 240, had already passed the state Senate earlier in the 2015 session.

Both moves, neither of which garnered more than three dissenting votes along the way, cleared the way for the bill to be transmitted to Governor Robert Bentley (R) for his signature. But that signature never came. Instead the bill sat on the governor's desk as the clock ran down on the state legislature's work for 2015.

This is noteworthy because that potentially put the Alabama presidential primary move in pocket veto territory; a bill passed late in the legislative session but not signed before the legislature adjourns. A bill not signed under those circumstances is vetoed. However, the legislative session ended on Thursday, June 4, two weeks after it passed both legislative chambers and was transmitted to the governor. That is close to the end of the session, but not close enough to trigger a pocket veto.

The reason for that is based on two related rules. First, bills passed by the legislature and sent to the governor have six days (not counting Sundays) to be signed. After that a passed bill becomes law without the signature of the governor. Second, due to the six day window created in that rule, only bills passed in the last five days of the legislative session are open to a pocket veto (those passed bills that do not have a full six day window for gubernatorial consideration).

The SEC primary bill was never in any danger of being pocket vetoed, but it did become law after Thursday, May 28 without Governor Bentley's signature. Alabama joins Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas on March 1. Georgia will also be a part of the southern regional primary that can also claim Oklahoma and Virginia. Massachusetts, Minnesota and Vermont will also conduct primaries or caucuses on that date.

UPDATE (6/9/15, 7:30pm): Odd timing, but news broke (via Mike Cason at AL.com) after the posting of this piece that Governor Bentley signed SB 240 on Wednesday, May 27. That message was apparently not delivered to the Alabama state legislature as of this afternoon (screen grab):

The assignment of an act number seems to only come after a gubernatorial signature (This was the case with the 2011 bill that created a consolidated March primary.) or the expiration of the six day window mentioned above in the original text of the post.

And Secretary of State John Merrill's office press release from late this afternoon indicates that the bill will be signed tomorrow morning at 10am (screen grab):

There's a seemingly weird level of confusion on this one. Regardless, Alabama will have a March 1 presidential primary in 2016.

UPDATE (6/10/15): Ceremonial signing.

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Brownback Signs Legislation Permanently Eliminating Presidential Primary in Kansas

On Monday, June 8, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback (R) signed into law the conference committee report on HB 2104. The omnibus elections package tweaks a number of provisions in the Kansas statutes, but importantly strikes mention of a presidential primary from state election code.

The custom in the Sunflower state for the last two decades has been to cancel the primary one cycle at a time, leaving the April election on the books as an option for future cycles. The new law signed on Monday breaks with that pattern. Neither party in Kansas has utilized the presidential primary election as a means of selecting or allocating delegates to the national convention since 1992. That is five straight presidential election cycles that a presidential primary has existed in the state and been canceled. Kansas parties have opted into a caucus/convention process, but now will not have that option.

Kansas is now locked in as a caucus state (for 2016 and likely beyond barring future action by the legislature). Democrats have already made plans to hold Saturday, March 5 caucuses in 2016. If Kansas Republicans stay true to the form established over the last two cycles, they, too, will conduct caucuses on March 5, the Saturday after Super Tuesday.

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Makings of a Deal Emerge in North Carolina Presidential Primary Impasse

The showdown between the North Carolina House and Senate over the positioning of the Tar Heel state presidential primary in 2016 may be in its waning days. According to North Carolina Republican Party Chair Claude Pope (via Jones and Blount), a deal has been reached between the state party and leaders in the General Assembly to move the North Carolina presidential primary back into compliance with national party delegate selection rules.

The details of the deal were not immediately made clear -- specifically the date of the contest -- but news that defenders of the tethered position in the Senate are open to a change is significant. It was on the Republican-controlled Senate side that the amended version of an omnibus elections bill added the presidential primary date change in 2013. With the end of the 2013 session bearing down on them, and with it pressure to get the elections bill through before that adjournment, the Republican-controlled House went along with the date change.

But that decision has put the North Carolina Republican Party in a vulnerable position ever since. A North Carolina presidential primary scheduled on the Tuesday after a February South Carolina primary would put Tar Heel state Republicans in violation of the Republican National Committee rules; most importantly the so-called super penalty that would reduce the size of a state delegation (with 30 or more delegates) to just 12 delegates. In the case of the North Carolina Republican delegation to the 2016 Republican convention in Cleveland that would mean a more than 80% reduction.

That super penalty has been effective during the 2013-15 period in bringing formerly rogue states like Arizona, Florida and Michigan back into compliance with the national party rules. North Carolina, however, has held out to this point.

That looks to be changing though. The House has already passed legislation to shift the North Carolina presidential primary to March 8. In the lead up to that bill's introduction, there was a push, led by Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest (R), to move the primary back to March 22 to facilitate a winner-take-all primary. Whether that latter option is still on the table remains to be determined. Given that state Senate proponents have valued the earliness of the tethered primary, it would seem that March 8 would likely be the latest date on which they would schedule the primary. But joining the SEC primary on March 1 -- the earliest, compliant date under the rules -- may still be an option as well.

The prognosis for any deal passing the General Assembly would have to be tentatively rated as pretty good. The House bill passed nearly unanimously and as long as the deal sets the primary date on or after March 1, it will likely have the votes of Democrats. The current law has them out of compliance with the Democratic National Committee which places some urgency behind action on their parts as well. Democrats may be in the minority in the North Carolina General Assembly and have options limited to those proposed by Republicans, but they still also have to act to bring about a change.

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Thanks to Jonathan Kappler for the heads up on the Jones and Blount story.

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March Presidential Primary Effort Ends at Close of Connecticut Legislative Session

Back in January, Connecticut Republicans had visions of a potentially more open primary process and an earlier presidential primary. And while Democrats in control of the state legislature and Connecticut Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D) closed the door on an earlier primary (eliminating the possibility of a more open primary in the process), the end of the Connecticut General Assembly session on Wednesday, June 3, served as the final official death knell for such a change through legislative channels.

Still undecided is how hard the Connecticut Republican Party is going to push to hold caucuses at an earlier date than the late April presidential primary. The state law does not seemingly provide the party with the latitude to make the switch, but whether they want to go through the time and expense of a court challenge has yet to be fully determined.

Connecticut Democrats are locked into that April 26 primary date, but Republicans in the Nutmeg state are hoping they will not be.

Again, the two parties are differently motivated. Republicans, with a wide open presidential primary field of candidates are motivated to hold earlier contests. Democrats, on the other hand, have a far less competitive nomination battle ahead of them. Absent that perceived need to influence the nomination process, Democratic-controlled states have incentive to hold later contests, and where possible, to do so with neighboring states (see mid-Atlantic primary in 2012). That means more delegates from the state will attend the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. Connecticut already has the later primary date and one regional partner in Rhode Island.  The clustering bonus will depend on what compromise is hammered out in New York in the coming weeks.

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Utah Republicans Are Preparing for March 22 Presidential Caucuses

The Utah Republican Party this past weekend completed a meeting in which the framework for the 2016 election cycle was set. One tweet of note that caught FHQ's eye coming out of the meeting was from Utah state Senator Todd Weiler (R-23rd, Davis, Salt Lake):

The 2016 #utgop caucus and presidential primary will be held on March 22. #utpol #utleg

— Todd Weiler (@gopTODD) May 30, 2015

Utah Republican Party Executive Director, Julian Babbitt confirmed that the party will in fact caucus during March 22 neighborhood meetings across Utah (like Beehive state Democrats), but that the online voting portion of that process will begin a week earlier on March 15, giving voters ample opportunity to cast presidential preference ballots.

Both the start point for the online voting on March 15 and the final, in-person voting opportunity during the March 22 caucuses will fall outside of the Republican National Committee proportionality window. That allows Utah Republicans to continue with a truly winner-take-all allocation of delegates to the winner of the combined preference vote. Asked whether there were any plans to change course on that allocation method, Babbitt referred to section 7.0B of the state party bylaws -- the description of the winner-take-all method -- and offered that there was no effort underway to alter anything with the allocation of national convention delegates.

Utah Republicans can now be slotted into the March 22 slot on the 2016 presidential primary calendar but with a caveat. We also know that Utah will be another truly winner-take-all primary in mid-March to join Florida.

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End of Legislative Session Kills January Presidential Primary Bill in Texas

This one was unlikely to go anywhere from the start, but HB 1214 -- the bill to move the Texas presidential primary to the last Tuesday in January -- died in committee when the state legislature in the Lone Star state adjourned for 2015 on Monday,  June 1.

With the Texas primary already scheduled for the first Tuesday in March -- tied for the fifth position on the calendar and the biggest delegate prize on that date -- a move to January never really made sense. In the committee hearing on the legislation, supporters made the case for moving Texas into a position of maximum importance on the primary calendar -- first -- without considering that the carve-out states would do exactly what they have done over the last two presidential election cycles: move their contests ahead of any states interloping on their turf. In the end Texas would have have moved up on the calendar but remained in the fifth position.

Again, it made no sense to move the primary, keep the same calendar position and lose 90% of the Texas Republican delegation in the process. That is why this was never a serious bill. Well, that and the fact that similar bills have been filed, heard and have gone nowhere during most legislative sessions over the last decade.

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