New State Polls (9/26/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
9/20-9/22
|
+/- 4.12%
|
550 registered voters
|
38
|
40
|
14
|
+2
|
+1.95
| |
Colorado
|
9/22-9/23
|
+/- 3.5%
|
799 registered voters
|
37
|
41
|
10
|
+4
|
--
| |
Colorado
|
9/20-9/25
|
+/- 3.5%
|
784 likely voters
|
41
|
42
|
0
|
+1
|
+3.14
| |
Florida
|
9/16-9/20
|
+/- 4.0%
|
617 likely voters
|
43
|
41
|
6
|
+2
|
+1.96
| |
Iowa
|
9/20-9/22
|
+/- 4.4%
|
491 likely voters
|
38
|
38
|
14
|
+/-0
|
+0.93
| |
Louisiana
|
9/22-9/24
|
+/- 3.3%
|
905 likely voters
|
35
|
45
|
13
|
+10
|
+13.84
| |
Massachusetts
|
9/15-9/20
|
+/- 4.3%
|
700 likely voters
|
47
|
31
|
5
|
+16
|
+20.77
| |
Minnesota
|
9/16-9/20
|
+/- 4.0%
|
625 likely voters
|
46
|
39
|
6
|
+7
|
+8.01
| |
New Hampshire
|
9/20-9/25
|
+/- 4.2%
|
522 registered voters
|
46
|
42
|
5
|
+4
|
+5.40
| |
New York
|
9/21-9/23
|
+/- 3.8%
|
676 likely voters
|
52
|
31
|
3
|
+22
|
+20.15
| |
North Carolina
|
9/17-9/22
|
+/- 4.9%
|
404 likely voters
|
43
|
42
|
6
|
+1
|
--
| |
North Carolina
|
9/23
|
+/- 3.7%
|
694 likely voters
|
44
|
43
|
5
|
+1
|
+1.05
| |
Ohio
|
9/15-9/22
|
--
|
652 registered voters
|
40
|
37
|
2
|
+3
|
--
| |
Ohio
|
9/22-9/23
|
+/- 3.4%
|
850 registered voters
|
42
|
43
|
8
|
+1
|
+0.80
| |
Pennsylvania
|
9/21-9/22
|
+/- 4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
45
|
43
|
4
|
+2
|
--
| |
Pennsylvania
|
9/20-9/25
|
+/- 3.5%
|
771 likely voters
|
45
|
44
|
0
|
+1
|
+5.27
| |
Virginia
|
9/15-9/23
|
+/- 3.9%
|
1003 likely voters
|
39
|
33
|
2
|
+6
|
+6.21
| |
Polling Quick Hits:
Quite a few firms were seemingly attempting to get some last minute, pre-debate surveys in the can to set the before of the first debate before and after. There were 17 new polls in 13 states to be released on the day debate season is set to kickoff at Hofstra.
On to the truly quick hits...
Arizona:
Arizona really has not budged all that much in September. There are exceptions, but Trump has consistently been around 40 percent and Clinton in the upper 30s. That that type of margin keeps popping up says there is something to it, but also that Trump modest lead is real though not expanding.
Colorado:
Another day, another couple of close polls in Colorado. The Gravis and CNN polls were not only close, but had Trump ahead. Still, this is one where both candidates are stuck around 40 percent. If the third party numbers hold up in the Centennial state, things might stay close and something in the low 40s might take the state. For now, though, the margin is quickly narrowing.
Florida:
The Sunshine state has been a ray of light for Clinton over the last week or so. Yes, the polling has been back and forth, but the former Secretary has not fallen behind for a series of polls in Florida as she has in other states -- Iowa, Nevada and perhaps Ohio -- that have closed more quickly of late (or pushed over the partisan line into Trump territory). It should be said, however, that the margin in Florida here at FHQ has dipped below two points for the first time in a while, but just barely.
Iowa:
Loras has not had a good track record in Iowa during the 2016 cycle. The firm's last poll in the Hawkeye state from June had Clinton up double digits during a period in which narrow leads were the order of the day. Now, the latest update has Trump down in the 30s for the first time in any poll since just after the conventions in the midst of a series of polls that have had him squarely in the mid-40s. The Clinton number looks consistent, but this one is likely another outlier.
Louisiana:
JMC Analytics was back in the field in the Pelican state and found a tighter margin since its July poll. Regardless, this is a red state with no real sign of moderating. Trump may be lagging Romney's pace in the Louisiana but remains comfortably ahead.
Massachusetts:
The same thing could be said in Massachusetts for Clinton. Dipping into the 40s in the Bay state is eye-popping on some level for a Democratic candidate. Of course, that stings less when that candidate is still comfortably up.
Minnesota:
At this point Minnesota is no closer for Republicans than it was in 2012. The current eight point margin here at FHQ mirrors the margin on Election Day four years ago. The difference is that there continues to be a pretty healthy level of undecideds in the Land of 10,000 Lakes that could change that in next six weeks. But the evidence thus far is that this is yet another Lean Clinton state where Trump is finding it difficult to get to 40 percent while Clinton is camped out in the mid-40s.
New York:
Nope, New York still isn't a swing state.
North Carolina:
Two new polls in North Carolina both found Clinton up one in the Tar Heel state. Like Florida, the polling has bounced around in North Carolina but within a more narrow range. The result is about the same, however: Clinton up narrowly here at FHQ.
Ohio:
Clinton may be downsizing in Ohio (at least in terms of her presence in the state), but today was a day that found her on the plus side of 40 percent in a couple of new polls there. That is a break from the pattern that had emerged in the Buckeye state. Trump has mostly been in the low to mid-40s since September 11 and Clinton trailing around if not below 40. Both polls stop the march toward a tie in the averages here, but Ohio is still very close. Only Nevada is closer.
Pennsylvania:
If breaking 40 is the main issue for Trump in the Lean Clinton states, then that bubble may have been busted. New surveys from Harper and CNN in the Keystone state find the New York businessman back in the 40s for the first time since August (with just one exception from IPSOS). This is the first CNN poll in Pennsylvania so it is difficult to get a good read on the context, but the Harper poll has Clinton stationary and Trump gaining four points since the last poll the firm conducted there.
...in March. Of course, that was a period when the few polls to come out of Pennsylvania found Trump in the low to mid-30s (during primary season).
Virginia:
Finally in Virginia, aside from the high third party presence in the new Christopher Newport survey, the margin looks about right relative to the FHQ average for the Old Dominion. That stands at about six points, around where most of the polls have been there over the last couple of weeks.
--
There was a lot of new data to usher in the new week, but not much in the way of changes here at FHQ. All of the states with new polling information stayed in place on the map. However, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania each moved one cell close to the partisan line on the Spectrum and Colorado moved off the Watch List. The Centennial state is now in the heart of the Toss Up Clinton category.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
HI-42
(7)
|
NJ-14
(175)
|
ME-4
(264)
|
MS-6
(126)
|
TN-11
(56)
|
MD-10
(17)
|
DE-3
(178)
|
CO-93
(273 | 274)
|
MO-10
(120)
|
AR-6
(45)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
NM-5
(183)
|
FL-29
(302 | 265) |
SC-9
(110)
|
SD-3
(39)
|
MA-11
(31)
|
MN-10
(193)
|
NC-15
(317 | 236) |
AK-3
(101)
|
ND-3
(36)
|
CA-55
(86)
|
WI-10
(203)
|
OH-18
(335 | 221)
|
KS-6
(98)
|
ID-4
(33)
|
NY-29
(115)
|
MI-16
(219)
|
NV-6
(203)
|
UT-6
(92)
|
NE-5
(29)
|
IL-20
(135)
|
VA-13
(232)
|
IA-6
(197)
|
IN-11
(86)
|
OK-7
(24)
|
WA-12
(147)
|
NH-4
(236)
|
AZ-11
(191)
|
MT-3
(75)
|
WV-5
(17)
|
CT-17
(154)
|
PA-20
(256)
|
GA-16
(180)
|
KY-8
(72)
|
AL-9
(12)
|
OR-7
(161)
|
RI-4
(260)
|
TX-38
(164)
|
LA-8
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Delaware
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Iowa
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Maine
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Nevada
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Hampshire
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
New Jersey
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Strong Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Rhode Island
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/24/16)
The Electoral College Map (9/23/16)
Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.
