The Electoral College Map (10/2/16)

New State Polls (10/2/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Illinois	Victory Research	9/21-9/24	+/- 2.83%	1200 likely voters	48.6	35.1	11.3	+13.4	+15.20
New Mexico	Research & Polling/Albuquerque Journal	9/27-9/29	+/- 4.4%	501 likely voters	35	31	6	+4	+6.55

Polling Quick Hits:
There were just a couple of polls added to the mix today on an otherwise slow post-debate Sunday.

Illinois:
The first of those two polls is out of Illinois. But it is not a post-debate poll. The Victory Research survey was in the field toward the tail end of the week prior to last Monday's first presidential debate. On the one hand, Clinton maintains a comfortable lead in what has been a Strong Democratic state for a generation. But on the other, the former Secretary of State is under the 50 percent mark for the fourth out of the last six polls conducted in the Land of Lincoln (since August). That would, perhaps, look worse if Trump was consistently at or above the 40 percent threshold instead of mostly stuck in the 30s.


New Mexico:
In the Land of Enchantment, the story is the number that does not make the table above. Clinton and Trump are in the low to mid-30s, but Gary Johnson is siphoning off nearly a quarter of support in the survey. Polling has been sporadic in the former New Mexico governor's home state, but what little is there has seen Johnson creep from the upper teens into the lower 20s in a couple of recent surveys (the other being the Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll). With Johnson included, Clinton has generally been around but just below 40 percent with Trump tending to trail in the lower 30s. One thing is for sure, Johnson's presence makes it close in New Mexico.


--
Neither poll shifted either state in any meaningful way here at FHQ. New Mexico flips spots with Minnesota, but that was the extent of the changes across the several figures.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	DE-3 (171)	PA-20 (263)	SC-9 (154)	MT-3 (53)
MD-10 (17)	OR-7 (178)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	TX-38 (145)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	RI-4 (182)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MS-6 (107)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	MN-10 (192)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	AK-3 (101)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	NM-5 (197)	OH-18 (334 | 222)	KS-6 (98)	AL-9 (33)
NY-29 (115)	WI-10 (207)	NV-6 (340 | 204)	IN-11 (92)	NE-53 (24)
IL-20 (135)	MI-16 (223)	IA-6 (198)	UT-6 (81)	WV-5 (19)
NJ-14 (149)	NH-4 (227)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (14)
WA-12 (161)	ME-33 (230)	GA-16 (181)	SD-3 (67)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (168)	VA-13 (243)	MO-10+13 (165)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Maine	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)

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The Electoral College Map (10/1/16)

Before jumping into the new polls for the day, allow FHQ a moment to make a few technical points now that the calendar has flipped from September to October. First, as promised, the possibility of electoral vote splits in Maine and Nebraska are now accounted for. One can most easily see that in the map above where the districts are being tracked now on the right side above the date. But that change is also reflected in the Electoral College Spectrum below (see particularly footnote #3). 

Second, not only are the day's new polls added, but so too are the 50 state surveys from UPI and Ipsos. As the latter are a rolling three week tracking poll, FHQ has made the editorial decision to include just the most recent version. That will be the case until there is no longer any overlap across versions. The inclusion of those series of surveys has shuffled a few states around as the changes table below notes. Alaska, Kansas and Utah shifted into deeper red territory and Mississippi inched just inside the Strong/Lean line on the Lean side. Meanwhile, on the Clinton side of the partisan line, Maine and Oregon continued to huddle around two different lines of demarcation between the categories here at FHQ. Both Maine and Oregon nudged back into the Lean Clinton category but from different directions. Overall, the shake up in the Spectrum -- the underlying order of states -- was pretty minimal.

New State Polls (10/1/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Nevada	Bendixen & Armandi/LVRJ	9/27-9/29	+/- 3.5%	800 likely voters	45	44	5	+1	+0.29
New Hampshire	GBA Strategies	9/25-9/27	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	43	37	2	+6	+5.77
New Jersey	Stockton Polling Institute	9/22-9/28	+/- 3.9%	638 likely voters	46	40	5	+6	+11.37

Polling Quick Hits:
Three new polls were released on the first Saturday in October.

Nevada:

Changes (October 1)
State	Before	After
Alaska	Lean Trump	Strong Trump
Kansas	Lean Trump	Strong Trump
Maine	Toss Up Clinton	Lean Clinton
Mississippi	Strong Trump	Lean Trump
Oregon	Strong Clinton	Lean Clinton
Utah	Lean Trump	Strong Trump

The Bendixen poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal is as much of a confirming poll as one could expect. Yesterday's Suffolk poll pushed the Silver state back to the Clinton side of the partisan line, but only barely. This poll is consistent with that positioning and is further evidence that there has been a shift away from that September streak of polls that established a range from Clinton and Trump tied to Trump +3.


New Hampshire:
Let's put it this way about the race in the Granite state: Clinton has not trailed in a poll there since July and that poll was an outlier. While other states have seen the race dance around a bit, New Hampshire has consistently had Clinton ahead in the five to seven point range. This GBA Strategies survey echoes that general dynamic.


New Jersey:
Before the Obama era -- especially during the Bush elections -- New Jersey always seemed to tighten up toward the end of the presidential race. It was never enough to make it competitive, but enough to grab the attention of poll watchers. This Stockton poll feels a little like those 2000 and 2004 days. Still, while Clinton lags behind Obama's 2012 performance in the Garden state, Trump is similarly trailing Romney's pace there. However, it should be noted that this poll has Trump right where Romney ended. But that 40 percent is on the high side of where he has been across the full series of New Jersey surveys.


--
The technical additions triggered a heavier load of changes than normal. Yet, the map and Spectrum remained largely unchanged. There was some more shuffling on and off the Watch List -- around the category lines -- than anything else.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	DE-3 (171)	PA-20 (263)	SC-9 (154)	MT-3 (53)
MD-10 (17)	OR-7 (178)	CO-94 (272 | 275)	TX-38 (145)	AR-6 (50)
VT-3 (20)	RI-4 (182)	FL-29 (301 | 266)	MS-6 (107)	ND-3 (44)
CA-55 (75)	NM-5 (187)	NC-15 (316 | 237)	AK-3 (101)	KY-8 (41)
MA-11 (86)	MN-10 (197)	OH-18 (334 | 222)	KS-6 (98)	AL-9 (33)
NY-29 (115)	WI-10 (207)	NV-6 (340 | 204)	IN-11 (92)	NE-53 (24)
IL-20 (135)	MI-16 (223)	IA-6 (198)	UT-6 (81)	WV-5 (19)
NJ-14 (149)	NH-4 (227)	AZ-11 (192)	LA-8 (75)	ID-4 (14)
WA-12 (161)	ME-33 (230)	GA-16 (181)	SD-3 (67)	OK-7 (10)
CT-7 (168)	VA-13 (243)	MO-10+13 (165)	TN-11 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Alaska	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Maine	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Michigan	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Mississippi	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Strong Clinton
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/28/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.

The Electoral College Map (9/30/16)

New State Polls (9/30/16)
State	Poll	Date	Margin of Error	Sample	Clinton	Trump	Undecided	Poll Margin	FHQ Margin
Florida	Mason-Dixon	9/27-9/29	+/- 3.5%	820 likely voters	46	42	4	+4	--
Florida	Opinion Savvy	9/28-9/29	+/- 4.0%	619 likely voters	47	46	1	+1	+2.10
Michigan	Glengariff Group/Detroit News	9/27-9/28	+/- 4.0%	600 likely voters	42	35	10	+7	+5.99
Nevada	Suffolk	9/27-9/29	+/- 4.4%	500 likely voters	44	38	6	+6	+0.24
New Hampshire	MassINC/WBUR	9/27-9/29	+/- 4.4%	502 likely voters	42	35	4	+7	+5.76

Polling Quick Hits:
The end of the week brought another wave of state-level polls that were in the field completely after the first presidential debate earlier in the week. And that has folks out looking high and low for debate effects in the results. FHQ would urge some patience. There simply has not been as much state-level polling in the time since that debate to arrive at any conclusion. Now, there have been a series of national polls -- national polls with a time series with fairly regular intervals -- that have indicated that, but the evidence at the state level is still inconclusive.

Unlike those national polls, the state surveys are less regular in their occurrence. Take this MassINC/WBUR survey of New Hampshire. The last time the firm was in the field in the Granite state was right around the time the calendar was flipping from July to August; right after the conventions. Well, if you take those results and compare them with the just-released numbers, it shows a narrowing in the race; not a post-debate increase in the margin.

And this is not to suggest that there has been no effect. Again, the national polls have so far shown that Clinton got something out of the Monday night showdown at Hofstra. But it is more difficult sometimes to put state polls in their proper context. One not only has to look back at the last poll the firm conducted in the state (if any), but also explore where that firm's polls have generally fallen relative to other polls in the same basic time period.

All this is to say that the national polls are beginning to show a debate bounce for Clinton, but the state polls are not necessarily indicating that trend.

...yet. On to the day's polls...


Florida:
The two Florida polls also illustrate the state poll lag (or if not that, then the inconclusive nature of the post-debate results to this point). Compared to the last polls from each firm -- Mason-Dixon and Opinion Savvy -- the changes are pretty muted. Clinton gained a couple of points since August in the Mason-Dixon survey while Trump held pat, and in the Opinion Savvy poll, both candidates gained two points, keeping the margin at Clinton +1. Now, this point could be nitpicked to death if it came to that. But the key thing to look at now is the overall state of the polls. In Florida, the pre-debate polling was all over the place. Trump led some and Clinton led others. If the post-debate landscape displaces that trend with, say, a string of Clinton leads (with no interruptions), then something is probably happening. These two along with the PPP survey release from a day ago are perhaps beginning to hint at just that.


Michigan:
In the Great Lakes state, Glengariff had not conducted a survey since the very beginning of August. As was the case with the New Hampshire poll used as an example above, that time period was even more favorable to Clinton than the current survey is. There may have been some additional fluctuations had the firm been in the field in the interim period. All we can glean from the series is that Clinton is still ahead by a margin somewhere in the Lean area. And that is where Michigan has been for the most part here at FHQ. As such, this is an affirming poll.


Nevada:

Changes (September 30)
State	Before	After
Nevada	Toss Up Trump	Toss Up Clinton

The biggest change of the day is Nevada crossing back over the partisan line to Clinton's group of states. Still, comparing this one to the bulk of the recent polling in the Silver state, it does at first glance look like an outlier. First, there have not been a lot of Clinton leads in the polling there throughout September. And second, there certainly have not been any surveys with Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin. All one can say is that the last Suffolk survey had Clinton up two points during an August and early September period when the margins in other polls were similar. That trend may or may not hold with this poll.


New Hampshire:
The Granite state was dealt with above for the most part, but it should be noted that this MassINC survey is consistent with the polling that has been conducted in New Hampshire in September. Clinton's lead there has held steady and her FHQ average in the state has been comfortably in the five to six point range all along.


--
Obviously the Nevada change is the big ticket item for today. It turns blue in crossing over the partisan line. That is reflected on the map, Spectrum and Watch List. The other states represented in today's polls changed little if at all. New Hampshire swapped spots with Virginia on the Spectrum, but that was the extent of it.

NOTE: A description of the methodology behind the graduated weighted average of 2016 state-level polling that FHQ uses for these projections can be found here.

The Electoral College Spectrum1
HI-42 (7)	NJ-14 (175)	ME-4 (264)	MS-6 (126)	TN-11 (56)
MD-10 (17)	DE-3 (178)	CO-93 (273 | 274)	MO-10 (120)	AR-6 (45)
VT-3 (20)	NM-5 (183)	FL-29 (302 | 265)	SC-9 (110)	SD-3 (39)
CA-55 (75)	MN-10 (193)	NC-15 (317 | 236)	AK-3 (101)	ND-3 (36)
MA-11 (86)	WI-10 (203)	OH-18 (335 | 221)	KS-6 (98)	ID-4 (33)
NY-29 (115)	MI-16 (219)	NV-6 (341 | 203)	UT-6 (92)	NE-5 (29)
IL-20 (135)	NH-4 (223)	IA-6 (197)	IN-11 (86)	OK-7 (24)
WA-12 (147)	VA-13 (236)	AZ-11 (191)	MT-3 (75)	WV-5 (17)
CT-17 (154)	RI-4 (240)	GA-16 (180)	KY-8 (72)	AL-9 (12)
OR-7 (161)	PA-20 (260)	TX-38 (164)	LA-8 (64)	WY-3 (3)
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum. 2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 274 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category.

NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.

The Watch List1
State	Switch
Delaware	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Indiana	from Strong Trump	to Lean Trump
Iowa	from Toss Up Trump	to Toss Up Clinton
Maine	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Michigan	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Nevada	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
New Hampshire	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
New Jersey	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Ohio	from Toss Up Clinton	to Toss Up Trump
Oregon	from Strong Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Pennsylvania	from Toss Up Clinton	to Lean Clinton
Rhode Island	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
Utah	from Lean Trump	to Strong Trump
Virginia	from Lean Clinton	to Toss Up Clinton
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.

Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (9/29/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/28/16)

The Electoral College Map (9/27/16)

Follow FHQ on Twitter, Google+ and Facebook or subscribe by Email.